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Covered Calls: A Devil's Bargain

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Covered Calls: A Devil's Bargain

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466 segments

0:00

The idea that covered calls generate

0:02

income is financial These

0:05

strategies are mechanically expected to

0:07

underperform their underlying equity and

0:10

increasingly so at higher targeted

0:12

levels of distributions. For long-term

0:14

investors, covered calls increase risk

0:16

by leaving the downside unprotected

0:18

while capping the upside, eliminating

0:21

the mean reverting behavior of stocks,

0:22

an important feature of stock returns.

0:25

I'm Ben Felix, chief investment officer

0:27

at PWL Capital, and I'm going to tell

0:29

you why the so-called passive income

0:31

from covered calls is a devil's bargain.

0:38

The preference for income is one of the

0:40

strongest behavioral biases in

0:42

investing. It can make people do silly

0:44

things in their search for income. Some

0:46

investors look for funds that pay high

0:48

distributions. This is well known by

0:51

fund managers who use high distribution

0:53

yields to attract investor dollars. The

0:56

problem for investors is that marketing

0:58

these yields in the case of covered

0:59

calls as income or even worse as

1:02

expected returns is financial

1:05

is not a lie to be clear. It is

1:07

indifference for the truth. Selling a

1:09

high distribution yield as an expected

1:11

return ignores the fact that yields on

1:14

covered call strategies are inversely

1:16

related to their expected returns.

1:18

Higher yields mechanically mean lower

1:20

expected total returns. Total returns,

1:23

to be clear, are what you need to buy

1:25

groceries. I'm going to walk through why

1:27

distribution yields are not returns, how

1:30

covered calls reduce expected returns,

1:32

and why I think the return profile of

1:34

covered calls makes them particularly

1:36

risky for long-term investors. To avoid

1:39

being too theoretical, I'm also going to

1:40

go through the performance of a bunch of

1:42

covered call funds to show that what I'm

1:44

saying is not just theoretical. It is

1:46

exactly what's happening in the live

1:48

funds. Let's start with some background.

1:50

Selling a call option on an equity that

1:52

you own generates income and creates a

1:54

liability that empirically more than

1:57

offsets the income received. This makes

1:59

the distribution yield uncovered call

2:01

funds a misleading metric. Selling a

2:04

call option means selling the right to

2:05

buy the underlying stock at a

2:07

predetermined price called the strike

2:09

price in exchange for a premium. An

2:11

equity covered call strategy invests in

2:14

stocks and sells call options on those

2:16

stocks. A fund using the strategy

2:18

typically distributes the derivative

2:20

income from selling calls as cash to

2:22

investors, resulting in their high

2:25

distribution yields. While those

2:26

distributions may feel like investment

2:28

returns, selling the call is only the

2:31

first step in the trade. The fund has

2:33

sold the right to buy the underlying

2:35

stock at the strike price. If the price

2:37

of the underlying rises above the strike

2:40

price, the option holder, who the fund

2:42

sold the option to, will exercise their

2:44

call option, and the fund will have to

2:46

sell the stock at a price below its

2:48

market value, putting a cap on upside

2:50

returns. Okay, I want to dig a little

2:52

deeper into the mechanics of what's

2:54

going on from the perspective of

2:55

expected returns. Call options are

2:57

positively exposed to their underlying

2:59

equity measured by a term called delta.

3:02

Buying a call option on a stock gives

3:04

you positive exposure to the price

3:06

movements of that stock. Selling a call

3:08

on an asset that you own, a covered

3:09

call, reduces your exposure to the

3:12

underlying stock. You're shorting

3:14

exposure to the underlying equity by

3:16

selling the call option. Holding option

3:18

maturity constant, call option prices

3:20

and deltas monotonically increase in a

3:23

decreasing strike price. If you want

3:25

higher income on your covered call

3:27

strategy, you can sell options with

3:29

lower strike prices resulting in higher

3:31

income and importantly higher short

3:33

delta. This is crucial in understanding

3:36

how yields are related to expected

3:38

returns. In simple terms, higher yield

3:40

mechanically means lower exposure to the

3:43

underlying asset by being short a higher

3:45

delta option and correspondingly it

3:47

means lower expected returns. When you

3:50

sell the call option, you receive an

3:51

option premium that feels like income

3:53

and is packaged up and distributed by

3:55

covered call funds as a cash

3:57

distribution. But the fund now has this

3:59

liability, the potential need to sell

4:00

the underlying shares below their market

4:02

value if the price rises above the

4:04

strike price. This liability exists

4:05

until the position is sold or the option

4:07

expires. Remember, the expected return

4:09

of the short call is increasingly

4:11

negative with an increasing derivative

4:13

yield. Here's why this matters. Over the

4:15

full life cycle of this type of trade,

4:17

the outcome is generally worse than

4:19

simply having held the underlying

4:20

equity. Part of the reason is a lower

4:22

equity beta, meaning less exposure to

4:24

the equity risk premium. To be clear,

4:26

this is something that you could do by

4:27

simply reducing your exposure to the

4:29

stock directly and holding some cash.

4:32

I'll come back to that with an example

4:33

later. The problem is that the reduction

4:35

in exposure to the equity risk premium

4:36

is also asymmetric. You keep most of the

4:39

downside while capping your upside at

4:41

the strike price. This means that

4:43

through any periods of market

4:44

volatility, which are of course common

4:46

in equities, in stocks, you eat most of

4:48

the downside, but you do not participate

4:50

in a large portion of the upside.

4:52

Systematically missing out on stock

4:54

market recoveries, which are common

4:56

after major downturns, can be very

4:58

expensive. Before I continue, I do need

5:00

to mention a potential saving grace for

5:02

covered calls. The volatility risk

5:04

premium. Equity options tend to be

5:06

priced with an implied volatility higher

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than realized volatility. This creates

5:11

the opportunity for option sellers to

5:13

earn an expected risk premium for

5:15

enduring the risk of an extreme event

5:17

where realized volatility exceeds

5:18

implied volatility. While it makes back

5:21

tested cover call strategies look really

5:23

good in recent history since about 2011,

5:26

the volatility risk premium has not been

5:28

anywhere near sufficient to offset the

5:30

reduction in equity exposure from

5:31

selling the options resulting in poor

5:34

performance for these strategies. This

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kind of thing can happen when a trade

5:37

becomes too crowded by, say, the

5:39

proliferation of retail funds chasing

5:41

the strategy. I want to make sure it's

5:43

really clear that the point about

5:44

asymmetry is particularly important for

5:46

long-term equity investors who have

5:48

historically benefited from a little bit

5:50

of mean reversion in stocks, making

5:52

stocks a little bit less risky at long

5:54

horizons than they would be if returns

5:56

were completely random. In simple terms,

5:58

after stocks have performed really

6:00

poorly, they tend to perform a bit

6:02

better than average. This is in contrast

6:04

to bonds which do not tend to have the

6:06

same rebound effect after poor

6:07

performance. In fact, bonds often

6:09

continue having poor performance after

6:11

having poor performance. Based on this,

6:13

some research has suggested that the

6:15

higher expected returns and mean

6:16

reverting tendencies of stocks make them

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less risky than bonds for long-term

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investors, including long-term investors

6:23

who need to live off of their

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investments. But here's the problem.

6:26

Selling calls on your equity positions

6:28

both lowers the expected returns and

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eliminates the mean-reverting tendency

6:32

of stocks by capping the upside return

6:34

while only slightly improving the

6:35

downside by the amount of the option

6:37

premium. Again, getting most of the

6:39

downside with a limit on upside is not

6:41

good. I would argue that it makes

6:43

covered calls very risky for long-term

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investors who are concerned with funding

6:47

their inflationadjusted spending. This

6:50

might be hard to believe given the large

6:51

distribution yields of these strategies.

6:53

But it's important to remember that

6:54

these distributions are not income in

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the way that say bond interest is and

6:59

presenting them this way is

7:00

irresponsible. The option premiums come

7:03

with an associated liability that lowers

7:05

expected returns and transforms the

7:07

shape of the distribution of returns

7:09

into something much less favorable for

7:11

long-term investors. One of the biggest

7:12

problems I see for these funds is that

7:14

their distribution yields are often much

7:16

higher than their total expected

7:17

returns. Yet, they're occasionally

7:19

discussed in income investing and fire

7:21

communities as if their distributions

7:24

are perpetually sustainable. It even

7:26

gives some people the idea that they

7:28

should borrow money at say 5% to invest

7:30

in cover called funds with a 14%

7:33

distribution yield. The combination of

7:35

high distribution yields, lower expected

7:37

returns, an uncapped downside, and a

7:39

capped upside means that someone who's

7:42

spending the distributions could deplete

7:44

their capital fairly quickly. This is

7:46

another reason why calling these

7:47

distributions passive income is

7:49

financial If you need a

7:52

psychological trick to help you spend

7:53

down your capital, covered calls might

7:55

be the answer, but their distribution

7:57

yields are not a sustainable source of

7:59

long-term income. I'll say it one more

8:01

time. Covered calls are not good for

8:03

long-term investors. Stocks have

8:05

positive expected returns and

8:07

mean-reverting tendencies. Covered calls

8:09

reduce exposure to the underlying stocks

8:11

and chop off the right tail of the

8:13

distribution of returns, capping the

8:15

ability of the underlying to recover

8:17

from downturns. This effect compounds

8:19

over time, driving an increasingly large

8:22

wedge between the performance of the

8:23

covered call strategies and their

8:25

underlying equities. This is true in any

8:27

market conditions. I often hear that

8:29

covered calls are great in a sideways

8:30

market, but equity markets don't go

8:32

sideways. They are volatile even over

8:35

periods where they have flat returns.

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Every time your covered call strategy

8:39

eats downside and is denied upside, you

8:42

are losing. Okay, that's all fine in

8:44

theory. Let's look at some live funds.

8:46

There are quite a few covered call ETFs

8:48

with reasonably long histories to

8:50

examine. These can be compared to ETFs

8:52

investing in the underlying equities

8:53

without selling calls to see all of the

8:56

points I've made so far happening in

8:58

live products. I looked for covered call

9:00

ETFs with minimum 10-year histories.

9:02

Beimo has a few that launched in 2011.

9:05

The Beimo covered call utilities ETF

9:07

launched October 20th, 2011. It

9:10

currently has a distribution yield of

9:11

7.37%

9:13

compared to 3.43% for an ETF of the

9:16

underlying equities. In periods where

9:18

the underlying equities do not perform

9:20

well, the covered call fund has been

9:21

able to outperform, but these periods

9:23

have tended to be brief and in the long

9:25

run are far more than outweighed by the

9:27

capped upside. Over the full history

9:29

since inception, the covered call fund

9:30

has trailed the underlying by an

9:32

annualized 2.6 percentage points. and it

9:34

has trailed the underlying in more than

9:36

70% of three-year rolling periods with a

9:38

one-mon step. Increasing the rolling

9:41

window to four years results in the

9:42

covered call fund trailing nearly 85% of

9:45

the time. The underperformance is

9:46

particularly pronounced when the

9:48

underlying equities drop dramatically

9:50

and then recover, which is a pretty

9:51

typical characteristic of equity

9:53

returns. As I mentioned earlier, I also

9:55

mentioned earlier that reducing equity

9:56

beta by holding cash can get you to a

9:58

similar place as a covered call, at

10:00

least from the perspective of beta. I

10:02

ran a portfolio of 60% Beimo equal

10:04

weight utilities and 40% cash well high

10:07

interest savings account from October

10:09

2013 through August 25th 2025. You can

10:13

see they track pretty closely most of

10:16

the time except that the covered call

10:17

fund gives up extreme upside events and

10:20

eats the whole meal on the downside. I

10:22

won't keep repeating that equity plus

10:24

cash comparison, but Jeff Pac, managing

10:26

director for Morning Star Research

10:27

Services, recently showed in a sample of

10:29

22 single stock covered call ETFs that a

10:33

combination of cash and the underlying

10:34

stock outperformed most of the funds had

10:37

lower volatility than all of the funds

10:39

and had a higher sharp ratio than most

10:41

of the funds. Another Beimo fund with a

10:43

reasonably long history is the Beimo

10:45

Covered Call Can Canadian Banks fund. It

10:47

launched January 28th, 2011. It has a

10:49

current distribution yield of 6.13%

10:52

compared to 3.61% for an ETF of the

10:54

underlying equities. It has

10:56

underperformed by an annualized 2.71

10:58

percentage points since inception and it

11:01

has only outperformed in less than 1% of

11:04

rolling 3-year periods since inception.

11:06

The Global X S&P TSX 60 covered call ETF

11:09

launched on March 16th, 2011. It

11:11

currently has a distribution yield of

11:13

7.67%.

11:15

It has trailed the EyesShares S&P TSX 60

11:18

ETF by 3.65 percentage points since

11:21

inception and it has trailed in 92% of

11:23

three-year rolling periods since

11:25

inception. I can go on, but you get the

11:27

idea. Covered calls are not good for

11:30

long-term investors who expect positive

11:32

returns from the underlying assets. The

11:35

ones I have mentioned so far are pretty

11:37

tame with distribution yields in the 6

11:38

to 7% range. I think where these

11:40

products really go off the rails is when

11:42

they push for even higher yields.

11:44

Remember from earlier, if you want

11:46

higher income on your covered call

11:47

strategy, you can sell options with

11:49

lower strike prices, resulting in higher

11:51

income, and higher short delta. In other

11:54

words, targeting a higher income

11:55

exacerbates all of the issues I've

11:57

mentioned with covered calls. Lower

11:59

strike prices result in higher

12:01

distribution yields, less exposure to

12:02

the underlying equity, and a tighter cap

12:04

on upside performance. Hamilton ETF's

12:07

yield maximizer ETF series targets

12:09

yields well over 10% by selling at the

12:12

money call options. Take their US equity

12:15

yield maximizer ETF as an example. It

12:17

targets a distribution yield of 12% and

12:19

has underperformed an S&P 500 ETF by an

12:22

annualized 4.48 percentage points over

12:25

its admittedly short history. I also

12:27

want to mention JAPI. This is JP

12:29

Morgan's equity premium income ETF. It

12:31

gained a cult-like following around 2022

12:34

when it outperformed the S&P 500 by

12:36

nearly 15 percentage points. That

12:38

combined with its prominently marketed

12:40

high distribution yield has made it

12:43

extremely popular with retail investors

12:44

in general and income focused investors

12:47

in particular. It even has its own

12:49

subreddit. The problem is that like

12:51

other covered call strategies, it has

12:53

underperformed an S&P 500 ETF. In this

12:57

case, by 5.92 percentage points since

12:59

inception in May 2020. This one's not a

13:02

perfect comparison to the underlying

13:03

equity since JAPI's underlying equity

13:06

portfolio is actively managed. I don't

13:08

know if blaming the underperformance on

13:10

active management or uncovered calls is

13:12

worse, but in either case, we know these

13:14

things generally don't play out well for

13:16

investors in the long run. The most

13:18

recent and ridiculous development I've

13:20

seen in the covered call space is single

13:21

stock covered call ETFs. These are

13:24

exactly what they sound like, covered

13:25

calls on single stocks in an ETF rapper.

13:28

Some of their distribution yields are

13:30

astronomical, but as you might expect by

13:32

now, so is their underperformance. TSLY

13:35

writes covered calls on Tesla shares.

13:37

Its distribution rate at the time of

13:39

writing is 48.59%.

13:42

But since inception in November 22, it

13:44

has underperformed Tesla by more than 20

13:46

percentage points annualized. These

13:48

numbers are ridiculous, but they

13:50

certainly do highlight the previously

13:52

mentioned relationship between high

13:53

derivative income yields and low

13:55

expected returns. The last point worth

13:57

mentioning is that covered call funds

13:59

will tend to have higher fees and

14:01

transaction costs than funds holding

14:02

their underlying equities. For the

14:04

sample of funds that I mentioned in this

14:06

video, excluding the single stock fund,

14:08

the average management expense ratio is

14:10

0.63%. 63% and the average trading

14:13

expense ratio is 0.16%.

14:16

While funds holding the same underlying

14:18

equities have an average management

14:19

expense ratio of 0.25% and an average

14:22

trading expense ratio of 0%. You are

14:25

paying a significant premium to access

14:28

all of the downsides of covered calls.

14:30

Those high income distributions have to

14:32

be really really psychologically

14:34

important to you for all of this to make

14:36

sense. For completeness, I do want to

14:38

say that some investment managers may

14:40

successfully use covered calls to access

14:43

the volatility risk premium, but this is

14:45

a fairly esoteric risk premium that is

14:48

probably not required for the typical

14:50

household saving for or living in

14:52

retirement. Even if there is a

14:54

volatility risk premium worth pursuing,

14:56

covered call funds are typically

14:58

marketed to retail investors based on

15:00

their distribution yields, not their

15:02

exposure to the volatility risk premium.

15:04

In my opinion, selling these products on

15:06

their yield, which in the case of

15:07

covered calls is inversely related to

15:10

their expected returns shows

15:11

indifference to the truth. It is bullit,

15:15

especially when it's held up next to

15:16

things like treasury bill yields. Taken

15:19

together, covered calls don't have

15:21

anything special to offer. They get you

15:23

to a place similar to holding a bunch of

15:24

cash, except that your upside is limited

15:27

and your downside is unlimited. They're

15:29

more likely to be detrimental to most

15:30

investors expected outcomes than to

15:32

improve them. Their high yields come at

15:34

the expense of lower expected returns

15:36

and historically lower realized returns.

15:38

The volatility risk premium, which could

15:41

theoretically help covered calls recoup

15:43

their lower expected returns, has not

15:45

been anywhere near sufficient to offset

15:47

the reduction in expected returns since

15:49

around 2011. All of these downsides show

15:52

up very clearly in the terrible

15:55

long-term performance of live covered

15:57

call strategies when measured properly

15:59

by their total returns. Thanks for

16:01

watching. I'm Ben Felix, chief

16:02

investment officer at PWL Capital. If

16:04

you enjoyed this video, please share it

16:06

with someone who thinks the 14%

16:08

distribution yield undercovered call

16:10

fund is an expected return.

Interactive Summary

The video argues that covered calls, often marketed as a source of passive income, are detrimental to long-term investors. The core issue is that the high distribution yields from covered calls are not true returns but rather a return of capital, achieved by selling the upside potential of an investment. This strategy mechanically underperforms the underlying equity, especially in rising markets, by capping gains while leaving the downside unprotected. The speaker explains that higher yields are achieved by selling options with lower strike prices, which increases "short delta" and reduces exposure to the underlying asset, thus lowering expected total returns. While there's a theoretical "volatility risk premium" that could offset these losses, it has historically been insufficient since 2011. Real-world examples of covered call ETFs show consistent underperformance compared to their underlying equity ETFs, particularly over longer rolling periods. Even simpler strategies like holding a mix of equity and cash can achieve similar or better risk-adjusted returns without the capped upside. The video concludes that covered calls are a "devil's bargain" for long-term investors, leading to lower expected and realized returns, and that marketing them based on high yields is misleading.

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