The First Domino in the US Debt Crisis
552 segments
Just now, one of America's closest
allies walked into the US Treasury and
said, "Give us a lifeline
or will crash your bond market." That
country was the United Arab Emirates and
Washington blinked. I explained the
importance and the dangers of this to
you actually in March, even before this
happened in the video here on the
screen. And this one meeting has set up
a chain reaction right now that is
pushing your mortgage rate higher. It's
crushing your tech stock portfolio. It's
crushing your bond retirement portfolio.
And it's forcing central banks around
the world to dump the American dollar at
the fastest pace in over a decade. And
most investors have got absolutely no
idea this is happening. So stick around,
watch this video, and you will learn not
just what this means, but how to
position yourself and how to actually
profit from this because this isn't
2008. This isn't a banking crisis. This
isn't an everything is going to collapse
crisis. It's a trust crisis. It's the
one type of crisis the US government
can't print its way out of, which is
what they've always done. So, I'll show
you how these dominoes fall from the war
in the Middle East to the interest rate
on your mortgage, and I'll give you my
three-step domino framework so you can
protect your portfolio or how they
actually benefit from this. My name is
Felix Prin. I'm a former investment bank
economist. That was Winston just now,
which obviously was a lot more
interesting than me. And Winston has
>> Come here. Come here. Sit down. Sit
down. Sit down. Sit.
>> Good boy. And there he is. Winston has
done something for you that's even
better than this video because he said
to me, "Felix, this is a bit information
dense. People don't really want to talk
about treasury markets and all that
boring crap." So, he's put together a
full research report that outlines
absolutely everything we're about to
show you, plus actually more. You can
download that for free at
felixfriends.org/domino.
And if you are happy about that
document, just write Winston in the chat
and he you'll know that all the work
he's put in was worth it. So what
actually happened? Well, picture this.
The United Arab Emirates walks into a
meeting with Treasury Secretary Scott
Bessent. And the UAE is one of the
richest countries on the planet and
we're talking about 270 billion in
foreign exchange reserves, literally
trillions in sovereign wealth funds. So,
why do these guys need money? Well, they
have a problem, a pretty big one. Since
the US war kicked off with Iran, the end
of February, and the Strait of Hummus,
that narrow waterway where all their oil
and gas exports go through, is
essentially shut down. And they've been
hit by almost 3,000 missiles and drones.
Guess what? Their oil exports, which is
how they earn their dollars, have
basically slowed to almost nothing at
all. So the UAE says to Washington, "We
need what they call a currency swap
line. It's like a lifeline. It's a
dollar lifeline." And then they
apparently said, according to certain
reports, that if we can't get dollars
easily, we may have to start selling our
oil in Chinese B. Now, the US doesn't
like that idea because here's one
country threatening to use a different
currency for oil. And as you may
remember, since 1974,
when the Saudis agreed to price oil
exclusively in US dollars, the dollar
has been the oil currency. Every barrel
sold anywhere in the world is pretty
much priced in dollars. And it gives the
dollar a superpower. It gives the US the
ability to run a massive deficit because
every country in the world has to buy
dollars so that they can use it to buy
oil with it. So if one of these allies
the Gulf breaks rank, the whole thing
can unravel. Bit like a, you know, when
you have a sweater and there's like a
thread sticking out like if you have
cats, you know what I'm talking about.
You put on it, the jumper is gone,
right? It's the same thing here. So
Washington knew it. So the Treasury
confirmed publicly that many Gulf and
Asian allies have requested the same
lifelines. Not one country, but many.
see a light out of the door. Now, before
we go further, I need to explain
something hideous to you. Um, if you
think it's hideous, write hideous in the
comments. It'll be funny for people who
don't know what this video is about.
What are we actually talking about here?
Well, first you need to understand what
is a US Treasury bond. Well, imagine
that your imagine that you lend your
friend $1,000 and he then writes you an
IOU which says, "I'll pay you back in 10
years plus $50 a year in interest." Sort
of, you know, as a payment for the
favor. That piece of paper is basically
that I owe you is a treasury pot. Now,
imagine your friend did this with
everyone, his neighbors, his co-workers,
people in other countries. He borrowed
from everyone and now he owes $ 39
trillion. Well, that's the United
States. Nine trillion of that is held by
foreign buggers, foreign countries.
Japan, China, the UK, the Gulf States,
they hold about $9 trillion worth of
IUS. And for the last 80 years, these
IUs have been considered the safest
investment on the planet. It's
ironically known as the gold standard of
investing, which is sort of ironic if
you were a gold buck. But the question
nobody's been asking, like literally
nobody, is what happens when the people
who lend you the money suddenly need a
cash back all at the same time because
they need to buy oil or they're not
selling as much oil and they need the
revenue. That's what's happening right
now. And it's not because these
countries want to sell. It's because
they have to sell. So the chain reaction
is this. The straight off humus is
closed, right? Largest oil disruption in
history. So what happens? Well, it isn't
just the Gulf States. Kuwait, major oil
exporter, tiny country, right? They're
selling zero barrels of oil in a month.
Zero. First time since Saddam invaded in
1991. But it isn't just those countries
who suddenly have no revenue to pay for
their government and their health care
and their armed forces and you know
drones. Um it is also their customers.
Japan, India, South Korea, Thailand,
Turkey, these countries import oil and
they need to pay for that oil in
dollars. So they need dollars rapid. So
what's the fastest way for a central
bank to get some dollars? Well, you sell
your most liquid dollar asset. And
what's the most liquid dollar asset in
the world? Yeah, you guessed it. US
Treasury bonds. So, what happens? And
let me know if this is landing for you.
I know it's a little bit like tedious,
but it's so so important to understand.
You get this massive wave of selling.
Let me give you one number. Foreign
central banks holding at the New York
Fed, which is where they keep their
dollars. It's at the lowest level since
2012. China slashed its Treasury
holdings to the lowest number since
2008, an 18-year low. Japan, it's the
single largest foreign holder of US
debt, dumped 47 billion in just 30 days.
37 billion in 30 days. So about 240
billion globally have been sold in the
last 30 days of US government debt. The
only one buying is the poodle. Sorry,
the vassel state. Sorry, the uh formerly
Great Britain. They're the only country
buying. Probably gun to the head or
something. Everybody else selling. Now
what's the result of this? And maybe you
spotted a gold bar on my thumbnail
because yes, central banks now hold more
of their reserves in gold than in US
debt. That's the first time
in over 35 years. So central banks have
been buying a ton of gold. And that's
even though some countries are selling,
Russia is selling, Turkey is selling, uh
rumors are that the Gulf States are
selling gold because they need to raise
cash to pay for, you know, things to
continue or to fund drone purchases,
which is a bit weird, but that's true.
Um but still central banks are buying
more gold overall. The biggest quarter
of gold purchases ever in history ever,
ever, ever. Right? If I was a
six-year-old, I'd say a few more evers.
So the people whose job it is well in
whoever money printer, they're going,
"We don't want any of that monkey money.
We want gold." Now, most investors are
going to get surprised by the
consequences of this. This is going to
dominate what happens in the stock
market for the next 12 to 18 months,
maybe longer in my humble opinion. What
happens when you get surprised by it?
Well, tech stocks for example, they tend
to get a bloody nose when these things
happen. Look at Palunteer down 33%. Are
you one of the unfortunate souls who
bought Palunteer at the top here and is
regretting it? Or maybe you even bought
what sounds like a good investment in a
time like this. Maybe you bought silver,
but again, maybe you bought it near the
top of the market and you're down 32%
right now. Or maybe it happened to you
with any other, you know, good quality
stock
like PayPal here. You know, this one
that's down almost 90%. Tell me in the
chat any stock or gold or silver,
whatever that you bought near the top
and that you're like kind of annoyed by.
Just put it in the comments down below.
I'd love to see it. And it's going to
help people because they're going to
realize it isn't just me. It isn't just,
you know, manipulation. It's actually a
reality for most retail investors. And
I'm going to fix that for you. I'm going
to do something special for you this
coming weekend. I'm going to teach a
free live workshop and I call it how to
fix bad timing once and for all. And
what do I mean by that? I mean by that
that you don't have to buy at the top
and you don't ever have to have 30%
losses in your stock portfolio and you
can get yourself a free seat at
fixinvesting.com.
And maybe you're thinking, "But nobody
can time the market perfectly, Felix.
You're talking Dremel." Um, you would be
right. Nobody can time the market
perfectly. But the kind of buying at the
top only to see your wealth get
destroyed slowly and painfully, that is
actually avoidable. And I'll teach you
how. So get your free seat at
fixinvesting.com. I will teach you how
Wall Street deals with that very problem
because it is very very very solvable in
a very simple way. Just join me at
fixinvesting.com on the weekend. And if
you're going to do that, write fix in
the comments. Uh and and I know you'll
be there. But to really understand
what's going on right now, what's going
to hit the market, you need to
understand the following. When countries
dump US bonds, why should you care,
right? You're sitting somewhere nice and
sunny in Florida or whatever, and you're
like, "Why do I care? I only own stocks,
whatever." You probably own some bonds
in your retirement portfolio. But put
that aside. Most people don't understand
bonds because they sound tedious. They
are, but let me explain it to you so
like a five-year-old can understand it.
Let me know if it's let me know if this
lands for you. I'm not saying uh you
don't have the capacity of a 5-year-old.
I'm just saying I'm hoping it's as
simple as I think it is. So, it works
like this. Countries sell US debt,
Treasury bonds, the bond prices will
drop, right? It's a bit like imagining
your house if imagining your house,
you're sitting in your house and in your
street all your neighbors put their
house up for sale at the same time. All
the houses or you s live in a condo, all
the condos in your block go on the
market on the same time. What do you
think happens to prices? Correct. They
crash because the buyers are like,
"Well, I can haggle with him. I can
haggle with him. I'm going to need a
better price." In the bond world, when
the price of a bond goes down, interest
rates go up. And you can think about
that. It might cause you a headache.
Just just take it as truth for a moment.
They go in opposite directions. So mass
selling of US debt does what? It
increases interest rates. It increases
your mortgage rate and your car loan
rate, your credit card rate. And of
course also corporate borrowing. So all
those data centers that are getting
financed, the factories, the machinery
leases, all that stuff is getting more
expensive. So what does that mean? Well,
it means two things actually. It means
one, yeah, you get higher inflation and
two,
you get generally lower profits at
companies that can't pass the costs on
entirely to you, the sucker, the
customer. Now, the scary part here is
that long-term interest rates are now at
5.2% as I'm recording this. So 5% is
now.
Now Bank of America asked global fund
managers and guess what they said and
this might terrify you. They said it's
going to go not down. It's going to go
to 6%. US interest rates are going to go
to 6%. The last time we saw that was
1999 when we had like the biggest bubble
in the world. You know, wasn't that the
um I did not I did not have you know
what relations with that woman? And
wasn't that the time? sort of feels like
that was the time. Maybe I'm off by a
few years. And the reason interest rates
were so high is because we had a lot of
inflation. The economy was booming. But
right now, the economy isn't booming. So
what do the high interest rates do in
1999? Remember what happened after 1999?
2000 happened. 2001 happened. The stock
market completely collapsed. The dot
bubble collapsed. That's the scary part
here because when interest rates go
higher and higher and higher, it's
harder and harder to hide the cracks in
the system. Mortgages are already around
6.3%. Now, some people will benefit from
that, and I'll show you who in just a
second, but for you, for right now, we
already seen half a percentage point
increase in mortgage rates. That's $200
out of the average mortgage or $64,000
added on top of that mortgage. If you
have a fixed year fixed rate mortgage,
good for you. But some people are buying
homes, right? Student loans,
refinancing, business lines of credit,
that all goes up and that's a problem
for the economy and for you and for the
stock market when it becomes a bigly
deal. And people realize this has
actually happened. Now, who else is this
a big deal for before I tell you where
the opportunities lie? You know, the new
fetcher keeps saying he's going to lower
interest rates. He's like, "Yeah, yeah,
we're going to we're going to lower
rates." The problem is
rates are not set by the Fed. Yeah, they
can they can set a rate nominally, but
it's actually the bond market that sets
so. And because the bond market is so
big now, because the US government keeps
issuing all this debt, debt is a bond.
The bond market is now more powerful
than the Fed. And the bond market is
saying rates are going up to 6%. You can
cut all you like, doesn't make any
difference to us. Interest rates are
going up. So the tail is wagging the dog
as I put on the slides here. Now, who
pays the most interest in the world on
government on on on debt? It's the US
government, of course. A trillion
already in interest, more than the
military defense budget. Almost 20 cents
out of every tax dollar goes on
interest. Uh three billion a day. Now,
where does that money go? To bond
holders. So,
the people who own the debt. So,
someone's getting richer. But there are
really two outcomes to this. The
government has two options. Option one
is inflate the debt away, which means
create inflation, which is exactly what
they're doing, and it'll destroy your
savings. It'll destroy the value of the
dollar, to destroy the value of your
salary. The second option would be to
borrow more and kick the can down the
road, which of course is what they're
also doing. So, they're doing both. Now,
you might think, well, couldn't we just
grow the economy faster? Mathematically,
impossible to outdo the debt. I say
impossible. Everything is possible but
highly unlikely. Uh the fourth option
would be cut spending.
Now if you understand democracy, it is a
popularity contest. Who is going to be
more popular? The guy who's going to
say, "I'm going to take away all your
benefits. Medicare, all that stuff,
getting rid of all of it. Social
Security going to kill it all off." Or
the guy who's gonna say, "I'm gonna give
you loads of free stuff. Vote for me."
Who you gonna vote for? The reality is
people are always going to vote for the
guy who gives you free stuff, which is
what got us into this mess to start
with. So, the dollar is getting slowly
demolished or demoted. The dollar is
down about 8% since late 2025.
And if and when the war stops in the
Middle East, well, the war will never
stop in the Middle East, will it? When
this Iran war stops and oil will flow
more freely, um, guess what? Is it going
to fix everything? The dollar will
actually fall faster. Crazy, eh? Um, and
Goldman Sachs agrees with me, JP Morgan
agrees with me, we're all looking at
another about 10% down on the dollar.
So, if you're an American, you're going
on a holiday in Europe, go quickly. Now,
you'll be just fine. Um, for you, it's
like going to a third world country,
isn't it? Like, it's so cheap. All the
Americans were actually thinking that
the Liza saw in France. Like, it's like
it's like I don't know. I can't sh can't
mention a country, but you know what I
mean. Going to a tinpot HUD country. Um,
they're going to France. So, dollar
reserves are the lowest level in 30
years around the world, and the dollar
demand is going to keep declining. So,
what do we do? Well, there a couple of
things that we can do. First of all,
gold. JP Morgan says it's going to go to
$6,300 this year, which would be another
30% up or so. But what we really want to
learn is like what benefits from this,
what gets crushed, and then we want to
follow wherever the money is going, not
what these muppets are talking heads are
telling you on television or YouTube.
So, what benefits from chaos? Energy.
Energy tends to beat inflation. Banks
and insurance are doing well. Our weekly
um or rather my weekly lists of stocks
I'm interested in in tons of banks in
there at the moment. Gold and gold
miners. Yeah, you could add silver to
that. You could add all commodities that
to that quite frankly. Uh that's kind of
where I'm fishing. Now, are there
exceptions? Yes, there's some oil and
service stocks. That's kind of energy
that we're in right now. But your high
growth
unprofitable tech stock, that's usually
a pretty bad place to be. And I know a
lot of you guys are in that, right?
Quantum this, quantum that, and all that
stuff. There are moments for it, but buy
and hold on that could be dangerous.
REITs and utilities usually get
destroyed. Small caps, so lots of debt
tend to get destroyed and the
longduration bonds in your retirement
portfolio start to suffer pretty badly.
So you now understand the concept
straight of Hmoose triggered forced
selling of US government debt that
pushes interest rates higher in the US.
Isn't it crazy? These people on the
other side of the world can affect your
mortgage and your car loans. Yeah, it's
true. So you get higher rates, the
dollar gets weaker, and we realize that
some things benefit from it. Hard
assets, for example, right? Avoid the
stuff that gets crushed, and don't hope
it's all going to sort itself out
because it might well not do. So if
you've experienced this, you bought
something and it went down 30%. Maybe
you even bought something and it was
beautiful for a while. It went up and up
and up and up and up and you were like,
I'm a genius. You're telling everyone
how wonderful this particular stock was,
you know, up and up and up and up and up
and then it goes down and down and down
and down and now you're really really
sad and you're holding on to it quietly
and you haven't told your wife yet. If
that triggers something within you and
you just want to avoid that going
forward because guess hard rules on that
one. Wall Street's been following those
rules for 50 years plus. Join me on the
weekend. Grab yourself a free seat to
our workshop at fixinvesting.com. It's
called How to Fix Bad Timing Once and
For All. And no, I will not make your
timing perfect. It doesn't need to be
perfect, but it doesn't have to be
abysmally horrible where you get an
ulcer and can't sleep well at night. Uh
that we can definitely avoid. Now, it
won't be live from France this weekend
as I'm in Asia right now, but we'll
still do it. Wilston will be here, I
think. And I hope you got some value out
of this. If you did, please share it
with other people. That would be all I
ask. Uh share the invitation to our
workshop with other people. That's
really the best thing we can do. The
more people we reach, the more people's
lives we can change, which is really
what this is all about. And I wish you
tremendous success and hope to see you
on the weekend. Well, while everyone's
obsessing over the SpaceX's IPO at about
$2 trillion valuation, I'm going to give
you four already listed space stocks.
could deliver massive
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
Felix Prin explains how a crisis in the Middle East, specifically the disruption of oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, has triggered a chain reaction causing foreign countries to dump US Treasury bonds. This forced selling is driving up US interest rates, impacting mortgage and borrowing costs, and weakening the US dollar. The video outlines how this global shift, driven by a loss of trust in US debt, is creating both dangers for traditional portfolios and opportunities in hard assets like gold and energy.
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