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The First Domino in the US Debt Crisis

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The First Domino in the US Debt Crisis

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552 segments

0:00

Just now, one of America's closest

0:02

allies walked into the US Treasury and

0:05

said, "Give us a lifeline

0:08

or will crash your bond market." That

0:12

country was the United Arab Emirates and

0:16

Washington blinked. I explained the

0:19

importance and the dangers of this to

0:22

you actually in March, even before this

0:24

happened in the video here on the

0:26

screen. And this one meeting has set up

0:30

a chain reaction right now that is

0:33

pushing your mortgage rate higher. It's

0:35

crushing your tech stock portfolio. It's

0:38

crushing your bond retirement portfolio.

0:41

And it's forcing central banks around

0:43

the world to dump the American dollar at

0:47

the fastest pace in over a decade. And

0:49

most investors have got absolutely no

0:51

idea this is happening. So stick around,

0:53

watch this video, and you will learn not

0:55

just what this means, but how to

0:57

position yourself and how to actually

0:59

profit from this because this isn't

1:01

2008. This isn't a banking crisis. This

1:04

isn't an everything is going to collapse

1:06

crisis. It's a trust crisis. It's the

1:09

one type of crisis the US government

1:11

can't print its way out of, which is

1:13

what they've always done. So, I'll show

1:15

you how these dominoes fall from the war

1:18

in the Middle East to the interest rate

1:20

on your mortgage, and I'll give you my

1:22

three-step domino framework so you can

1:25

protect your portfolio or how they

1:26

actually benefit from this. My name is

1:29

Felix Prin. I'm a former investment bank

1:31

economist. That was Winston just now,

1:33

which obviously was a lot more

1:35

interesting than me. And Winston has

1:38

>> Come here. Come here. Sit down. Sit

1:40

down. Sit down. Sit.

1:41

>> Good boy. And there he is. Winston has

1:46

done something for you that's even

1:47

better than this video because he said

1:49

to me, "Felix, this is a bit information

1:51

dense. People don't really want to talk

1:53

about treasury markets and all that

1:55

boring crap." So, he's put together a

1:58

full research report that outlines

2:00

absolutely everything we're about to

2:01

show you, plus actually more. You can

2:04

download that for free at

2:05

felixfriends.org/domino.

2:07

And if you are happy about that

2:10

document, just write Winston in the chat

2:12

and he you'll know that all the work

2:14

he's put in was worth it. So what

2:17

actually happened? Well, picture this.

2:19

The United Arab Emirates walks into a

2:22

meeting with Treasury Secretary Scott

2:24

Bessent. And the UAE is one of the

2:27

richest countries on the planet and

2:29

we're talking about 270 billion in

2:32

foreign exchange reserves, literally

2:34

trillions in sovereign wealth funds. So,

2:36

why do these guys need money? Well, they

2:39

have a problem, a pretty big one. Since

2:41

the US war kicked off with Iran, the end

2:44

of February, and the Strait of Hummus,

2:47

that narrow waterway where all their oil

2:50

and gas exports go through, is

2:52

essentially shut down. And they've been

2:55

hit by almost 3,000 missiles and drones.

2:58

Guess what? Their oil exports, which is

3:00

how they earn their dollars, have

3:02

basically slowed to almost nothing at

3:04

all. So the UAE says to Washington, "We

3:07

need what they call a currency swap

3:09

line. It's like a lifeline. It's a

3:10

dollar lifeline." And then they

3:13

apparently said, according to certain

3:15

reports, that if we can't get dollars

3:18

easily, we may have to start selling our

3:21

oil in Chinese B. Now, the US doesn't

3:24

like that idea because here's one

3:27

country threatening to use a different

3:29

currency for oil. And as you may

3:32

remember, since 1974,

3:35

when the Saudis agreed to price oil

3:37

exclusively in US dollars, the dollar

3:41

has been the oil currency. Every barrel

3:43

sold anywhere in the world is pretty

3:45

much priced in dollars. And it gives the

3:47

dollar a superpower. It gives the US the

3:50

ability to run a massive deficit because

3:54

every country in the world has to buy

3:55

dollars so that they can use it to buy

3:59

oil with it. So if one of these allies

4:03

the Gulf breaks rank, the whole thing

4:05

can unravel. Bit like a, you know, when

4:08

you have a sweater and there's like a

4:10

thread sticking out like if you have

4:11

cats, you know what I'm talking about.

4:13

You put on it, the jumper is gone,

4:15

right? It's the same thing here. So

4:16

Washington knew it. So the Treasury

4:20

confirmed publicly that many Gulf and

4:24

Asian allies have requested the same

4:26

lifelines. Not one country, but many.

4:29

see a light out of the door. Now, before

4:31

we go further, I need to explain

4:33

something hideous to you. Um, if you

4:35

think it's hideous, write hideous in the

4:37

comments. It'll be funny for people who

4:39

don't know what this video is about.

4:40

What are we actually talking about here?

4:42

Well, first you need to understand what

4:43

is a US Treasury bond. Well, imagine

4:47

that your imagine that you lend your

4:50

friend $1,000 and he then writes you an

4:53

IOU which says, "I'll pay you back in 10

4:56

years plus $50 a year in interest." Sort

5:00

of, you know, as a payment for the

5:02

favor. That piece of paper is basically

5:05

that I owe you is a treasury pot. Now,

5:08

imagine your friend did this with

5:10

everyone, his neighbors, his co-workers,

5:13

people in other countries. He borrowed

5:15

from everyone and now he owes $ 39

5:19

trillion. Well, that's the United

5:21

States. Nine trillion of that is held by

5:25

foreign buggers, foreign countries.

5:27

Japan, China, the UK, the Gulf States,

5:30

they hold about $9 trillion worth of

5:32

IUS. And for the last 80 years, these

5:37

IUs have been considered the safest

5:40

investment on the planet. It's

5:43

ironically known as the gold standard of

5:46

investing, which is sort of ironic if

5:48

you were a gold buck. But the question

5:52

nobody's been asking, like literally

5:55

nobody, is what happens when the people

5:58

who lend you the money suddenly need a

6:01

cash back all at the same time because

6:04

they need to buy oil or they're not

6:06

selling as much oil and they need the

6:08

revenue. That's what's happening right

6:10

now. And it's not because these

6:11

countries want to sell. It's because

6:13

they have to sell. So the chain reaction

6:16

is this. The straight off humus is

6:18

closed, right? Largest oil disruption in

6:20

history. So what happens? Well, it isn't

6:25

just the Gulf States. Kuwait, major oil

6:29

exporter, tiny country, right? They're

6:31

selling zero barrels of oil in a month.

6:34

Zero. First time since Saddam invaded in

6:37

1991. But it isn't just those countries

6:40

who suddenly have no revenue to pay for

6:43

their government and their health care

6:44

and their armed forces and you know

6:46

drones. Um it is also their customers.

6:50

Japan, India, South Korea, Thailand,

6:54

Turkey, these countries import oil and

6:58

they need to pay for that oil in

6:59

dollars. So they need dollars rapid. So

7:03

what's the fastest way for a central

7:04

bank to get some dollars? Well, you sell

7:07

your most liquid dollar asset. And

7:10

what's the most liquid dollar asset in

7:12

the world? Yeah, you guessed it. US

7:15

Treasury bonds. So, what happens? And

7:18

let me know if this is landing for you.

7:20

I know it's a little bit like tedious,

7:22

but it's so so important to understand.

7:24

You get this massive wave of selling.

7:26

Let me give you one number. Foreign

7:29

central banks holding at the New York

7:31

Fed, which is where they keep their

7:33

dollars. It's at the lowest level since

7:35

2012. China slashed its Treasury

7:38

holdings to the lowest number since

7:40

2008, an 18-year low. Japan, it's the

7:44

single largest foreign holder of US

7:47

debt, dumped 47 billion in just 30 days.

7:53

37 billion in 30 days. So about 240

7:58

billion globally have been sold in the

8:00

last 30 days of US government debt. The

8:04

only one buying is the poodle. Sorry,

8:06

the vassel state. Sorry, the uh formerly

8:09

Great Britain. They're the only country

8:11

buying. Probably gun to the head or

8:13

something. Everybody else selling. Now

8:17

what's the result of this? And maybe you

8:19

spotted a gold bar on my thumbnail

8:22

because yes, central banks now hold more

8:26

of their reserves in gold than in US

8:30

debt. That's the first time

8:34

in over 35 years. So central banks have

8:37

been buying a ton of gold. And that's

8:40

even though some countries are selling,

8:43

Russia is selling, Turkey is selling, uh

8:46

rumors are that the Gulf States are

8:48

selling gold because they need to raise

8:51

cash to pay for, you know, things to

8:53

continue or to fund drone purchases,

8:57

which is a bit weird, but that's true.

8:59

Um but still central banks are buying

9:02

more gold overall. The biggest quarter

9:05

of gold purchases ever in history ever,

9:11

ever, ever. Right? If I was a

9:13

six-year-old, I'd say a few more evers.

9:15

So the people whose job it is well in

9:18

whoever money printer, they're going,

9:20

"We don't want any of that monkey money.

9:23

We want gold." Now, most investors are

9:26

going to get surprised by the

9:27

consequences of this. This is going to

9:29

dominate what happens in the stock

9:30

market for the next 12 to 18 months,

9:33

maybe longer in my humble opinion. What

9:37

happens when you get surprised by it?

9:38

Well, tech stocks for example, they tend

9:41

to get a bloody nose when these things

9:43

happen. Look at Palunteer down 33%. Are

9:47

you one of the unfortunate souls who

9:48

bought Palunteer at the top here and is

9:50

regretting it? Or maybe you even bought

9:53

what sounds like a good investment in a

9:55

time like this. Maybe you bought silver,

9:58

but again, maybe you bought it near the

10:00

top of the market and you're down 32%

10:02

right now. Or maybe it happened to you

10:04

with any other, you know, good quality

10:07

stock

10:09

like PayPal here. You know, this one

10:13

that's down almost 90%. Tell me in the

10:17

chat any stock or gold or silver,

10:20

whatever that you bought near the top

10:21

and that you're like kind of annoyed by.

10:23

Just put it in the comments down below.

10:24

I'd love to see it. And it's going to

10:26

help people because they're going to

10:27

realize it isn't just me. It isn't just,

10:29

you know, manipulation. It's actually a

10:31

reality for most retail investors. And

10:35

I'm going to fix that for you. I'm going

10:37

to do something special for you this

10:39

coming weekend. I'm going to teach a

10:42

free live workshop and I call it how to

10:45

fix bad timing once and for all. And

10:47

what do I mean by that? I mean by that

10:50

that you don't have to buy at the top

10:53

and you don't ever have to have 30%

10:55

losses in your stock portfolio and you

10:58

can get yourself a free seat at

11:00

fixinvesting.com.

11:02

And maybe you're thinking, "But nobody

11:04

can time the market perfectly, Felix.

11:05

You're talking Dremel." Um, you would be

11:08

right. Nobody can time the market

11:10

perfectly. But the kind of buying at the

11:12

top only to see your wealth get

11:14

destroyed slowly and painfully, that is

11:17

actually avoidable. And I'll teach you

11:19

how. So get your free seat at

11:21

fixinvesting.com. I will teach you how

11:24

Wall Street deals with that very problem

11:28

because it is very very very solvable in

11:30

a very simple way. Just join me at

11:33

fixinvesting.com on the weekend. And if

11:36

you're going to do that, write fix in

11:37

the comments. Uh and and I know you'll

11:40

be there. But to really understand

11:41

what's going on right now, what's going

11:43

to hit the market, you need to

11:45

understand the following. When countries

11:47

dump US bonds, why should you care,

11:51

right? You're sitting somewhere nice and

11:53

sunny in Florida or whatever, and you're

11:54

like, "Why do I care? I only own stocks,

11:57

whatever." You probably own some bonds

11:58

in your retirement portfolio. But put

12:00

that aside. Most people don't understand

12:02

bonds because they sound tedious. They

12:04

are, but let me explain it to you so

12:07

like a five-year-old can understand it.

12:09

Let me know if it's let me know if this

12:11

lands for you. I'm not saying uh you

12:13

don't have the capacity of a 5-year-old.

12:14

I'm just saying I'm hoping it's as

12:16

simple as I think it is. So, it works

12:18

like this. Countries sell US debt,

12:21

Treasury bonds, the bond prices will

12:23

drop, right? It's a bit like imagining

12:26

your house if imagining your house,

12:28

you're sitting in your house and in your

12:29

street all your neighbors put their

12:32

house up for sale at the same time. All

12:35

the houses or you s live in a condo, all

12:37

the condos in your block go on the

12:40

market on the same time. What do you

12:41

think happens to prices? Correct. They

12:44

crash because the buyers are like,

12:46

"Well, I can haggle with him. I can

12:47

haggle with him. I'm going to need a

12:49

better price." In the bond world, when

12:51

the price of a bond goes down, interest

12:55

rates go up. And you can think about

12:59

that. It might cause you a headache.

13:00

Just just take it as truth for a moment.

13:04

They go in opposite directions. So mass

13:06

selling of US debt does what? It

13:10

increases interest rates. It increases

13:12

your mortgage rate and your car loan

13:14

rate, your credit card rate. And of

13:17

course also corporate borrowing. So all

13:21

those data centers that are getting

13:22

financed, the factories, the machinery

13:25

leases, all that stuff is getting more

13:28

expensive. So what does that mean? Well,

13:31

it means two things actually. It means

13:34

one, yeah, you get higher inflation and

13:38

two,

13:40

you get generally lower profits at

13:44

companies that can't pass the costs on

13:47

entirely to you, the sucker, the

13:51

customer. Now, the scary part here is

13:54

that long-term interest rates are now at

13:58

5.2% as I'm recording this. So 5% is

14:02

now.

14:03

Now Bank of America asked global fund

14:06

managers and guess what they said and

14:09

this might terrify you. They said it's

14:11

going to go not down. It's going to go

14:13

to 6%. US interest rates are going to go

14:16

to 6%. The last time we saw that was

14:19

1999 when we had like the biggest bubble

14:21

in the world. You know, wasn't that the

14:24

um I did not I did not have you know

14:26

what relations with that woman? And

14:28

wasn't that the time? sort of feels like

14:29

that was the time. Maybe I'm off by a

14:31

few years. And the reason interest rates

14:34

were so high is because we had a lot of

14:36

inflation. The economy was booming. But

14:38

right now, the economy isn't booming. So

14:42

what do the high interest rates do in

14:44

1999? Remember what happened after 1999?

14:47

2000 happened. 2001 happened. The stock

14:49

market completely collapsed. The dot

14:51

bubble collapsed. That's the scary part

14:54

here because when interest rates go

14:57

higher and higher and higher, it's

14:59

harder and harder to hide the cracks in

15:02

the system. Mortgages are already around

15:04

6.3%. Now, some people will benefit from

15:07

that, and I'll show you who in just a

15:10

second, but for you, for right now, we

15:13

already seen half a percentage point

15:14

increase in mortgage rates. That's $200

15:17

out of the average mortgage or $64,000

15:21

added on top of that mortgage. If you

15:23

have a fixed year fixed rate mortgage,

15:25

good for you. But some people are buying

15:28

homes, right? Student loans,

15:29

refinancing, business lines of credit,

15:31

that all goes up and that's a problem

15:34

for the economy and for you and for the

15:38

stock market when it becomes a bigly

15:41

deal. And people realize this has

15:43

actually happened. Now, who else is this

15:45

a big deal for before I tell you where

15:46

the opportunities lie? You know, the new

15:49

fetcher keeps saying he's going to lower

15:51

interest rates. He's like, "Yeah, yeah,

15:52

we're going to we're going to lower

15:53

rates." The problem is

15:56

rates are not set by the Fed. Yeah, they

16:00

can they can set a rate nominally, but

16:02

it's actually the bond market that sets

16:05

so. And because the bond market is so

16:09

big now, because the US government keeps

16:12

issuing all this debt, debt is a bond.

16:15

The bond market is now more powerful

16:16

than the Fed. And the bond market is

16:18

saying rates are going up to 6%. You can

16:22

cut all you like, doesn't make any

16:24

difference to us. Interest rates are

16:27

going up. So the tail is wagging the dog

16:30

as I put on the slides here. Now, who

16:32

pays the most interest in the world on

16:35

government on on on debt? It's the US

16:37

government, of course. A trillion

16:39

already in interest, more than the

16:41

military defense budget. Almost 20 cents

16:44

out of every tax dollar goes on

16:46

interest. Uh three billion a day. Now,

16:49

where does that money go? To bond

16:51

holders. So,

16:54

the people who own the debt. So,

16:56

someone's getting richer. But there are

16:57

really two outcomes to this. The

16:59

government has two options. Option one

17:02

is inflate the debt away, which means

17:05

create inflation, which is exactly what

17:07

they're doing, and it'll destroy your

17:10

savings. It'll destroy the value of the

17:13

dollar, to destroy the value of your

17:15

salary. The second option would be to

17:18

borrow more and kick the can down the

17:19

road, which of course is what they're

17:20

also doing. So, they're doing both. Now,

17:23

you might think, well, couldn't we just

17:25

grow the economy faster? Mathematically,

17:27

impossible to outdo the debt. I say

17:30

impossible. Everything is possible but

17:31

highly unlikely. Uh the fourth option

17:34

would be cut spending.

17:37

Now if you understand democracy, it is a

17:40

popularity contest. Who is going to be

17:42

more popular? The guy who's going to

17:44

say, "I'm going to take away all your

17:46

benefits. Medicare, all that stuff,

17:48

getting rid of all of it. Social

17:49

Security going to kill it all off." Or

17:51

the guy who's gonna say, "I'm gonna give

17:53

you loads of free stuff. Vote for me."

17:55

Who you gonna vote for? The reality is

17:57

people are always going to vote for the

17:58

guy who gives you free stuff, which is

17:59

what got us into this mess to start

18:01

with. So, the dollar is getting slowly

18:05

demolished or demoted. The dollar is

18:09

down about 8% since late 2025.

18:13

And if and when the war stops in the

18:17

Middle East, well, the war will never

18:19

stop in the Middle East, will it? When

18:21

this Iran war stops and oil will flow

18:23

more freely, um, guess what? Is it going

18:26

to fix everything? The dollar will

18:28

actually fall faster. Crazy, eh? Um, and

18:31

Goldman Sachs agrees with me, JP Morgan

18:33

agrees with me, we're all looking at

18:35

another about 10% down on the dollar.

18:40

So, if you're an American, you're going

18:42

on a holiday in Europe, go quickly. Now,

18:45

you'll be just fine. Um, for you, it's

18:47

like going to a third world country,

18:48

isn't it? Like, it's so cheap. All the

18:50

Americans were actually thinking that

18:51

the Liza saw in France. Like, it's like

18:54

it's like I don't know. I can't sh can't

18:55

mention a country, but you know what I

18:57

mean. Going to a tinpot HUD country. Um,

18:59

they're going to France. So, dollar

19:01

reserves are the lowest level in 30

19:04

years around the world, and the dollar

19:06

demand is going to keep declining. So,

19:10

what do we do? Well, there a couple of

19:12

things that we can do. First of all,

19:15

gold. JP Morgan says it's going to go to

19:17

$6,300 this year, which would be another

19:19

30% up or so. But what we really want to

19:22

learn is like what benefits from this,

19:24

what gets crushed, and then we want to

19:26

follow wherever the money is going, not

19:28

what these muppets are talking heads are

19:29

telling you on television or YouTube.

19:32

So, what benefits from chaos? Energy.

19:35

Energy tends to beat inflation. Banks

19:38

and insurance are doing well. Our weekly

19:42

um or rather my weekly lists of stocks

19:45

I'm interested in in tons of banks in

19:47

there at the moment. Gold and gold

19:49

miners. Yeah, you could add silver to

19:52

that. You could add all commodities that

19:54

to that quite frankly. Uh that's kind of

19:56

where I'm fishing. Now, are there

19:57

exceptions? Yes, there's some oil and

19:59

service stocks. That's kind of energy

20:00

that we're in right now. But your high

20:04

growth

20:06

unprofitable tech stock, that's usually

20:09

a pretty bad place to be. And I know a

20:12

lot of you guys are in that, right?

20:13

Quantum this, quantum that, and all that

20:14

stuff. There are moments for it, but buy

20:16

and hold on that could be dangerous.

20:18

REITs and utilities usually get

20:20

destroyed. Small caps, so lots of debt

20:22

tend to get destroyed and the

20:24

longduration bonds in your retirement

20:26

portfolio start to suffer pretty badly.

20:30

So you now understand the concept

20:32

straight of Hmoose triggered forced

20:35

selling of US government debt that

20:37

pushes interest rates higher in the US.

20:40

Isn't it crazy? These people on the

20:42

other side of the world can affect your

20:44

mortgage and your car loans. Yeah, it's

20:46

true. So you get higher rates, the

20:48

dollar gets weaker, and we realize that

20:52

some things benefit from it. Hard

20:54

assets, for example, right? Avoid the

20:56

stuff that gets crushed, and don't hope

20:59

it's all going to sort itself out

21:01

because it might well not do. So if

21:04

you've experienced this, you bought

21:07

something and it went down 30%. Maybe

21:09

you even bought something and it was

21:13

beautiful for a while. It went up and up

21:14

and up and up and up and you were like,

21:16

I'm a genius. You're telling everyone

21:18

how wonderful this particular stock was,

21:20

you know, up and up and up and up and up

21:22

and then it goes down and down and down

21:23

and down and now you're really really

21:24

sad and you're holding on to it quietly

21:26

and you haven't told your wife yet. If

21:28

that triggers something within you and

21:31

you just want to avoid that going

21:32

forward because guess hard rules on that

21:35

one. Wall Street's been following those

21:36

rules for 50 years plus. Join me on the

21:39

weekend. Grab yourself a free seat to

21:41

our workshop at fixinvesting.com. It's

21:44

called How to Fix Bad Timing Once and

21:47

For All. And no, I will not make your

21:49

timing perfect. It doesn't need to be

21:52

perfect, but it doesn't have to be

21:54

abysmally horrible where you get an

21:57

ulcer and can't sleep well at night. Uh

21:59

that we can definitely avoid. Now, it

22:02

won't be live from France this weekend

22:03

as I'm in Asia right now, but we'll

22:05

still do it. Wilston will be here, I

22:07

think. And I hope you got some value out

22:10

of this. If you did, please share it

22:12

with other people. That would be all I

22:14

ask. Uh share the invitation to our

22:16

workshop with other people. That's

22:18

really the best thing we can do. The

22:19

more people we reach, the more people's

22:21

lives we can change, which is really

22:22

what this is all about. And I wish you

22:24

tremendous success and hope to see you

22:26

on the weekend. Well, while everyone's

22:28

obsessing over the SpaceX's IPO at about

22:32

$2 trillion valuation, I'm going to give

22:34

you four already listed space stocks.

22:38

could deliver massive

Interactive Summary

Felix Prin explains how a crisis in the Middle East, specifically the disruption of oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, has triggered a chain reaction causing foreign countries to dump US Treasury bonds. This forced selling is driving up US interest rates, impacting mortgage and borrowing costs, and weakening the US dollar. The video outlines how this global shift, driven by a loss of trust in US debt, is creating both dangers for traditional portfolios and opportunities in hard assets like gold and energy.

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