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Something Big May Be About To Happen At Tesla

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Something Big May Be About To Happen At Tesla

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850 segments

0:00

Tesla investors are starting to sense

0:01

something big is about to happen with

0:03

Robo Taxi and maybe even right after

0:05

SpaceX goes public this Friday.

0:07

Yesterday, Tesla announced that FSE

0:09

supervised was officially approved in

0:11

Denmark. This is the fourth European

0:13

country to approve FSD and this is even

0:15

before Belgium which has said they're

0:17

coming soon. This comes after new data

0:19

was shared by Tesla that shows the

0:21

current results of the safety of FSD in

0:23

the Netherlands. In the last two months,

0:25

FSE supervised has been over three times

0:27

safer than manual driving and 3.5 times

0:30

fewer collisions. This is the safety

0:32

data we've been waiting for. Second, as

0:34

of yesterday, there are now 59 robo taxi

0:37

vehicles officially registered by the

0:39

DMV of Texas with eight added in just

0:42

the last day. Plus, it appears the robo

0:44

taxi expansion into Arizona looks like

0:46

it will be a lot bigger than people

0:48

realize. A Tesla robo taxi first

0:51

responder interaction plan appendix. It

0:54

lists the operating areas for level four

0:56

autonomy and includes nine cities, not

0:58

just the big ones many of us thought.

1:00

Third, we now know that a Whimo Ipace

1:02

has a battery efficiency of 562 watt

1:05

hour per mile. That's equivalent to 60 m

1:07

per gallon. A cyber cab on the other

1:09

hand has 165 W per mile. That is equal

1:12

to 204 m per gallon. So cyber cabs are

1:15

3.4 times more efficient than a Whimo.

1:18

Put another way, for each cyber cab on

1:20

the road, that's like having three

1:22

Whimos. Finally, a new report says Whimo

1:25

has purchased Apple's 5,500 acre

1:27

self-driving car proving ground in

1:30

Arizona for $220 million. This is the

1:33

area Apple was using to test their

1:34

vehicles that they ultimately cancelled.

1:36

We got Joe Bacti here with us today.

1:38

He's an economist, investor, and tech

1:40

entrepreneur. He has a YouTube channel

1:42

covering both Tesla and AGI. Check out

1:44

his website and community at

1:45

pioneerlands.org.

1:47

Welcome, Joe.

1:48

>> Good to be back.

1:49

>> Let's go. This is uh finally some news

1:52

coming about robo taxi and FSE. Still

1:54

drips drips. Uh we want some big ones. I

1:56

think you have a theory when we're going

1:57

to hear some really big moves by Tesla

2:00

robo taxi. Um Elon announced that FSE is

2:03

approved in Denmark and uh Tesla Europe

2:07

also showed that it was approved in

2:09

Denmark. Rollout will begin soon. This

2:12

is the fourth European country in

2:15

Denmark and uh apparently Belgium is

2:19

going to be following very very soon.

2:21

They thought that they were going to be

2:22

second and now they're fourth or maybe

2:24

fifth actually. Uh what's your thoughts

2:26

on this?

2:27

>> Yeah, I kind of predicted that that this

2:29

is how Europe is going to go. Uh I think

2:31

that's the strength of Europe is that

2:33

there's still competitive

2:35

a competitiveness between the countries.

2:37

So it was pretty clear because some

2:40

people said oh they will resist this and

2:42

it's not going to happen and I said this

2:44

is a domino effect right so once you

2:46

have one the others need to follow and

2:48

whoever of course the bigger ones will

2:50

take longer uh so you see exactly what I

2:53

predicted you have the small ones and

2:55

then they follow each other and then the

2:57

dominoes fall and the more do it the

2:59

less the ones that don't do it can you

3:02

know stay on the sidelines.

3:05

Okay. So, we are still waiting for the

3:07

actual vote uh for by the members of the

3:10

EU EU members. I think there's 29

3:15

country 28 countries that are part of

3:17

that. That can happen in end of the

3:19

summer. Could be later, but in the

3:21

meantime, we've got these uh individuals

3:24

that are just signing up regardless.

3:26

Yeah. And that comes because there's now

3:29

new data from the Netherlands. As you

3:31

know, the Netherlands was the first to

3:34

explain this and um or to to approve it.

3:37

And now we've got data. So Tesla Europe

3:39

uh announced this, posted this and said

3:41

that in the last two months, FSE

3:44

supervised has been over three times

3:46

safer than manual driving on Dutch

3:47

roads. So they've got proof now that

3:50

this is real. 3.5 times safer. This is

3:53

FSE supervised, by the way. So it's not

3:55

it's not robo taxi yet. It's just

3:56

supervised. We already know that it's

3:58

much safer. But this is just yet another

4:00

data point. Um, fewer collisions, 3.5

4:04

times fewer collisions, three times

4:06

safer. It's 14.9 times fewer automatic

4:09

emergency braking, 8.8 times less harsh

4:12

acceleration, 7.3 times less harsh

4:15

braking, eight times fewer hard swerves.

4:19

These are the kinds of things that you

4:20

can measure, and I'm sure they know that

4:22

these are the things that actually

4:23

contribute to collisions and then to

4:25

death. And I think I think you've said

4:27

before, right, Joe, that in Europe it's

4:29

a lot it's safer than in the US because

4:31

of smaller roads, slower driving than

4:34

highways, right? But uh in general, this

4:36

is still very good news.

4:37

>> Yeah, I mean I think it's pretty clear

4:42

um that FSD is a winner and it's pretty

4:45

clear that the European countries are

4:47

now competing for understanding this

4:48

first. It's clear that the typ the usual

4:52

suspects suspects will lack, you know,

4:56

UK, France, Germany. Um, but the small

5:00

ones will push it because they're smart.

5:02

And you see the smartest countries have

5:03

already done it. Denmark, Netherlands,

5:05

Estonia, these are the real players in

5:08

Europe that are a little smarter than

5:09

the others. So yeah, I'm not too

5:12

surprised by any of this. uh and it is

5:15

just a validation of the thesis that you

5:18

know if a new technology comes along

5:20

there is a competition you can't just be

5:22

stupid as a government the longer you're

5:24

stupid the more you fall behind the

5:26

dumber you look and so you know the

5:29

European Union decision

5:31

I mean this is very political as you can

5:33

imagine so I wouldn't bet too much on it

5:37

what they are going to do who knows what

5:38

the EU is going to do

5:40

>> but the countries are allowed to just

5:41

approve it so even if the EU says says

5:43

no or we don't we're not convinced or

5:46

whatever uh the countries can just

5:48

continue that whole path we are seeing.

5:50

So that's why I always said more

5:51

important that the countries do it. Of

5:53

course if the EU just approves it that

5:55

would be a quick big win.

5:57

>> Okay.

5:57

>> But I would FC that's full self drive.

5:59

Let's talk robo taxi. Uh there's new

6:01

information. I want you to share your

6:03

theory of what you're expecting with

6:05

Tesla robo taxi roll out. It's a lot

6:07

slower than people are than we all

6:10

expected. It's June um middle June now

6:13

and we this was launched last year. I

6:16

was there in Austin the very first robo

6:19

taxi ride June 22nd. I remember that

6:21

clearly I did a I don't know an 8h hour

6:24

live stream or something like that. Um,

6:26

and uh, we thought by now, a whole year

6:29

later, robo taxi would be everywhere,

6:31

but it's still just in Austin, Dallas,

6:34

and uh, Houston. Very small numbers. But

6:37

now we know that uh, there's 59

6:41

registered vehicles by the DMV. You can

6:43

go to their website and see this

6:45

actually registered as Tesla robo taxi

6:48

autonomous level 4. And there's eight

6:50

that was added just like in one day.

6:53

Thank you Spencer for keeping track of

6:55

all this. And and then this was new data

6:59

that he found also in Arizona, older

7:01

data in April. But if you look at this

7:03

robo taxi first responder interaction

7:05

plan, this appendex lists the potential

7:08

Arizona operating areas for SAPE level 4

7:11

autonomy and look at all these cities.

7:14

It's like not just the big ones, not

7:15

just Phoenix, not just uh Tempe,

7:18

Arizona, which is the ones we thought it

7:20

was going to be. It's it's it's a bigger

7:22

area. the expansion is going to be much

7:24

in into Arizona will be a lot bigger

7:25

than people realize. Uh this is the you

7:28

know April date here you can see the

7:30

appendix you can see the list of areas

7:32

that they plan to include. So what is

7:35

your theory Joe? Uh my mine is simply

7:38

that they were waiting for the uh the

7:40

SpaceX IPO and then possibly that there

7:42

will be an announcement of a SpaceX

7:44

Tesla acquisition. Alexander thinks it's

7:47

going to be late July maybe at the

7:49

latest mid August. And if that happens,

7:53

I think that's when they're going to go

7:54

fullon robo taxi. You can see the

7:56

preparation ahead of time, but I think

7:58

you have a little bit more nuance theory

8:00

on this.

8:00

>> Yeah, I mean this is a very complicated

8:03

question. We had the live stream with

8:04

Alexandra like the merger strategy, but

8:07

the robo taxi thing, um,

8:10

you know, I don't totally buy that robo

8:15

taxi rollout is linked to the merger

8:18

>> because it would be highly illegal. And

8:21

so how do you coordinate something like

8:23

that if you are extremely not allowed to

8:25

coordinate it right? So I mean how does

8:28

so I don't think they are taking that

8:32

level of risk because it's like totally

8:35

illegal right to delay something because

8:37

of a merger. I mean that's like

8:39

extremely bad. So I don't think Elon

8:42

would operate like this even if he

8:44

wanted to because the risk is

8:45

inappropriate. And so I think they're

8:48

just doing their thing throughout taxi

8:50

and you know because you're not allowed

8:52

to time these things that's like total

8:53

stock manipulation and you know I mean

8:55

this is like a total hell hole if you do

8:57

that. So I think it's more uh they're

9:01

working on it. I think the main forcing

9:03

function the more the the main function

9:05

that informs us what's going to what's

9:08

happening is really cyber cap

9:10

manufacturing. I always said that that's

9:12

for me the most reliable function.

9:14

Everything else is a little unclear. All

9:16

the hiring, recruiting is nice to see.

9:18

That's points in the right direction,

9:20

but it's hard to time. Does that mean

9:21

now or next month or month after six

9:24

months, but the cyber cap manufacturing

9:27

scaling that we know is happening, has

9:29

to happen, and is happening that puts

9:32

some kind of pressure on getting

9:34

something done because you know my

9:35

theory, it's you can't have thousands of

9:37

cyber caps out there and not do anything

9:39

with them. That would be dumb. That

9:42

would be bad timing. So the fact that

9:44

they are getting into thousands

9:46

I think is a confidence booster for me

9:49

that something has to happen very soon.

9:51

the pressure is building very

9:53

exponentially and I don't know if the

9:55

World Cup if that's a good theory right

9:57

the world cup launch in Texas in Dallas

9:59

and everywhere uh this weekend so it's

10:02

you know when you overlay these curves

10:04

you see the scaling you see the world

10:06

cup you see all these preparations you

10:08

see the cyber caps in Dallas the 40 or

10:11

whatever on this parking lot what is the

10:13

plan and they have the the wheel caps on

10:17

also an indication like why would you

10:19

put the wheel caps on they didn't do

10:20

this before if it's not for real

10:23

operations, right? If it's just for

10:24

testing, who cares about the wheel caps?

10:26

So, it seems like they're getting more

10:28

serious. And so, I think we have a

10:30

reasonable chance of something happening

10:33

in June after the IPO.

10:36

>> Okay. So, you it's not timing, but you

10:38

still think it's sometime in June. Like,

10:40

this is June. This is it.

10:43

>> I mean, that's why it's so insane.

10:44

Today, we have another market sell off

10:46

and um I mean, it's just insane, right?

10:49

It's it's very I think it's more likely

10:51

than not that we see 49500 in June and

10:55

the fact that we are selling off in the

10:56

wrong direction right now is just

10:58

completely nuts. But that's that makes

11:00

trading the stock so interesting and

11:02

difficult. So you were talking about

11:04

Cyber Cab. So I I'm going to show some

11:06

photos here. This was spotted by SE

11:08

Robinson flying some drones over Houston

11:12

the Houston fleet lot. And uh beautiful

11:15

shot. Look at that gorgeous shot. So

11:18

this is a lot in Houston and these look

11:22

like that they are all uh cyber caps

11:25

sorry robo taxis model wise and then the

11:30

cyber caps themselves. So there's a few

11:32

of them right there. You can see that.

11:37

So they're just sitting there. Yeah. I

11:39

mean I still think that they I still

11:41

stand by that they're being tested.

11:43

>> You can see this rigs like this. They're

11:45

still being tested to test FSD. Um, we

11:50

just uh here in Washington state, I've

11:53

got a number of friends who've now been

11:55

posting that they've been finding all of

11:57

these cyber cabs all over Seattle,

12:00

Belleview, uh different uh areas. And

12:05

initially when you list it list to the

12:08

look at the list that they said

12:10

Belleview was one of the places and the

12:12

people that they're hiring was Belleview

12:14

uh which is a a suburb across from

12:18

Seattle across the lake from Seattle and

12:21

but you'll see that it's being tested

12:23

everywhere. It's it's being tested all

12:26

over the place. So my theory is that

12:27

these cyber caps are being tested in

12:29

many many states again just to validate

12:32

FSD works right the software works

12:34

>> the question is like yeah how long is

12:36

the testing that is the question

12:37

>> my guess was always 3 months minimum 3

12:40

months and so we're probably still and I

12:43

was kind of I'm so far correct because

12:45

remember like a month ago everybody said

12:47

oh it's imminent imminent imminent well

12:49

here we are in June how come I think

12:52

it's not going to be another month or so

12:53

we'll see there might be one or two that

12:55

they're going to say Hey, we got the

12:57

first one out there, but the actual real

12:59

roll out won't happen for another two

13:01

months or so, maybe a month now, but or

13:04

maybe two months from now.

13:05

>> I mean, all we need in my opinion is

13:07

like

13:08

two dozen or something and the stock

13:11

would do very well. So, that's my

13:12

theory.

13:14

>> So, the question is, I'm not talking

13:15

about the real roll out. I think that

13:17

will take more time but you know the

13:19

first 24 36 50 maybe that would already

13:25

be a huge catalyst in my opinion and

13:27

that

13:28

>> I don't know it's totally speculative of

13:31

course if this happens in June or not

13:34

I just you know when you look at the

13:36

preparations all the details I don't

13:38

know I think it's it's more likely than

13:40

not that we see something happening in

13:42

June and with something I don't mean

13:43

hundreds I mean something the for a

13:46

cyber cap.

13:47

>> Yeah, I I I I get what you're saying

13:49

about you can't time this. It's going to

13:51

be it's highly illegal. Stock

13:52

manipulation, all those things. I get

13:54

that. But step back and think, imagine

13:57

if they rolled out a cyber cap, got into

13:59

a major accident prior to the SpaceX

14:02

IPO. Wouldn't look good. Would not look

14:05

good. Would impact the SpaceX IPO. So

14:07

I'm sure they they just said abundance

14:10

of caution in both safely but also

14:14

impact to the IPO.

14:16

>> Sure. I

14:19

that that is something I agree with but

14:22

strategically delaying the whole roll

14:25

out because of the merger. I think

14:27

that's a little much.

14:28

>> That's not the reason for it. Okay. I

14:30

still think it's FSD preparation. That's

14:32

the main reason. You want three months

14:35

uh under your belt at the minimum. and

14:36

they started in you know whatever

14:38

February, March or April, right? That's

14:40

the first day. So May, June, July,

14:42

August, you know.

14:44

>> Okay. Yeah.

14:45

>> Uh some data. So some people are going,

14:47

you know, hey, how many when do you

14:48

think that Tesla will have robo taxis

14:51

out there that's at least equal to

14:53

Whimo? And we now know there's 3,700

14:56

Whimos in the US and they've had, you

14:58

know, decade of le head start here. Um,

15:02

but it's actually when you when you look

15:04

at the data, you don't need 3,700 to

15:07

equal Whimo because a cyberc cab is a

15:10

third is three times more efficient than

15:13

a Whimo Ipace. So if you look at the

15:15

Tesla cybercab is 3.4 times more

15:18

efficient than a Whimo Ipace. Cybercab

15:20

was built from ground up as a robo taxi.

15:22

The Whimo is a retrofitted platform with

15:24

a sensor suite that adds excess weight,

15:26

drag, and constant compute sensor power

15:28

draw. And uh the data we now know that's

15:30

been confirmed is that the cyber cab is

15:32

165 watt hour per mile whereas the Whimo

15:35

Ipace the old ones is a 562 watt hour

15:38

per mile. And so this would be

15:40

equivalent to 204 miles per gallon this

15:43

would be equivalent to 60 m per gallon.

15:45

So three times. So you know just could

15:47

could you do that? Could you say, "Hey,

15:49

if my car can drive three times as long

15:51

as your car before I need to be charged,

15:53

theoretically you need three times more

15:55

cars than I do to cover the the same

15:57

coverage that we have." Maybe not.

16:00

>> Do you think that matters because they

16:02

can they can turn out, you know, 3,000

16:05

cyber caps in a month. So, I don't even

16:07

think that matters. What matters is when

16:09

they are ready.

16:10

>> Yeah, it matters for cost for sure. But

16:12

I think that uh I just want to point out

16:14

that if people reading Whimo, but

16:18

>> uh the question when they overtake Whimo

16:20

in terms of cyber caps I I think I mean

16:22

you saw probably Kathy Woods

16:24

>> doing the test drive and she said like

16:25

you know very slowly and then all at

16:27

once and she said all at once might be a

16:29

little closer than people think. So who

16:32

knows? I I know it's like this

16:33

psychological game that everyone is

16:34

super annoyed after 10 years of waiting

16:36

now another year of waiting. Everyone

16:38

says it's never going to happen. But

16:39

it's like stocks, right? And when you

16:41

give up next second it happens. So lots

16:45

of people giving up I think.

16:48

>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

16:50

>> In terms of your catalyst though did you

16:52

always say that it needs that getting

16:55

past Whimo numbers is a catalyst like

16:58

people psychologically will look at that

17:00

or not at all?

17:01

>> I think no one cares because Whimo is

17:03

3,000. If you get to 3,000 is already

17:05

game over in my opinion because then

17:07

you're in a

17:07

>> Yeah, that's what I'm saying to you.

17:09

Does that that number matter? Saying,

17:11

"Hey, we have more cyber cabs on or

17:14

robot taxi on the road than

17:15

>> I don't buy it. I think the number that

17:16

matters is two thou one to 2,000 matters

17:20

and a dozen matter. I I think dozens

17:25

matter first. That's a soft catalyst. If

17:27

that happens, we go up 10% probably 40

17:30

60 whatever to alltime highs. Then it

17:33

will flatten out and wait. If we

17:35

especially if we get delayed again, it's

17:36

like okay fine we going down. My theory

17:38

is the following. You launch 24 cyber

17:41

caps. Stock goes up 10 15% to 490 and

17:46

then they probably stop scaling again

17:48

because it's Tesla and then everyone's

17:50

oh god it's over and then the stock

17:51

drops again and then at some point

17:53

they're going to get to 100. That's the

17:56

next catalyst. And then people get get

17:58

nervous. Maybe it drops a little less

18:00

after that. And then we are into scaling

18:03

and then probably they will start really

18:06

scaling this thing and then we hit a

18:08

thousand and I think then the repricing

18:10

starts.

18:12

It's not going to wait until 3,000. That

18:14

makes like no sense. So once there's

18:15

like 100 200 300 then they're getting

18:17

all nervous repricing blah blah blah.

18:20

Some skeptics like oh but maybe the

18:22

market is limited and then they go

18:24

beyond a thousand I think between 1,000

18:26

and 2,000 we see the actual repricing.

18:29

That's my theory. uh doesn't matter

18:31

>> unless they scale like of course if they

18:33

scale a 100 and then go to 200 end of

18:35

this year and then to 500 end of next

18:37

year of course then nothing happens but

18:40

if that happens very quickly

18:43

>> month over month I think then you are

18:45

totally into repricing territory and not

18:48

at 3,000 that's like to why like you

18:51

know once it's clear okay this is

18:53

happening I think it it's going to move

18:55

very quickly

18:56

>> is it just your numbers or does it

18:58

matter you know which cities geography

19:00

pricing of the robo taxi service. I

19:03

don't think so because when you look at

19:05

everyone understands at this point the

19:07

theory and the framework thanks to

19:09

Herbert's channel thanks to everyone

19:12

else tech Joe Tech what I'm doing my

19:15

channel like everyone knows okay this is

19:17

the whole framework is there the only

19:19

remaining questions is this all a hoax

19:22

or not once people see this is probably

19:25

not a hoax the rest is already in place

19:29

and so the only remaining thing as I

19:31

said for a long time but Now even more

19:33

is the question does this work or not?

19:35

And most people think well it might work

19:38

in the future but not now.

19:40

And that's where why this uh stock is

19:43

where it is. At the moment where people

19:45

realize the time is now. Now is the

19:49

point where this stuff judges itself

19:52

commercially.

19:53

Then they will see well how many can

19:55

they produce? Hundreds of thousands a

19:57

year. Okay. It's just game over. So I

20:00

think it's really it's it's very

20:01

dramatic and it keeps being dramatic and

20:03

the dramatic question mark is does it

20:06

work? And of course you believe it

20:09

works, Kathy believes it works but

20:11

everyone else is just sitting outside.

20:13

It's like whoa probably doesn't work.

20:16

>> It must not work. And that's because

20:18

that's why they haven't uh you know

20:19

rolled this out and it's been over a

20:21

year since June 22nd. It must

20:23

>> I think it's very it's a very

20:24

fundamentally important thing different

20:26

from SpaceX where no one questions if

20:28

Starink works. So it's gets fully priced

20:30

in two trillion boom no problem because

20:32

it just works. You launch more and more

20:35

whereas Cyber Cap and Robotex is still

20:37

the question there's a huge share in the

20:40

market that thinks it just doesn't work

20:42

right now. I might believe it could work

20:45

in the future but clearly it doesn't

20:46

work right now. So once you flip that

20:49

switch and they see okay it looks like

20:51

it actually works right now that's where

20:54

everything changes and with it works it

20:57

means these things drive themsel and

21:00

transport customers

21:01

>> right and and then so I can see your

21:03

answer then when somebody says yeah but

21:05

Whimo works already they've got 3,700

21:08

out there driving every day in 10 in

21:10

five cities that are expanding to 10

21:12

cities I don't know how many now but

21:15

you're saying well yes But they don't

21:18

know, they don't see how they can scale

21:21

as fast as Tesla. Whereas Tesla, they

21:23

can go, okay, they got a thousand there,

21:25

it works. And oh, by the way, every

21:27

single car they make can be put into the

21:29

system. That's a difference.

21:30

>> I I think with Whimo, I never took these

21:33

people seriously. And I think everyone

21:34

else is going to view it the same way.

21:37

Uh because either you're a skeptic of

21:39

Tesla or you're not a skeptic, but it

21:41

doesn't matter. Once Tesla gets these

21:44

things out and they have a 100 in one

21:46

month in August or whatever and then

21:48

they have 200 and then they have 400 and

21:50

then they have 800, you don't need to be

21:53

Einstein to take a ruler and extend the

21:56

trajectory. It's like, well, it doesn't

21:57

matter. Whimo has 3,000. What's their

22:00

scaling speed?

22:01

>> Yeah.

22:01

>> Zero.

22:02

>> That's and so it's just very simp. You

22:04

have a curve and here's a curve and it's

22:05

game over. And so I don't think Whimo

22:08

is,

22:09

you know, this is too easy for every

22:11

analyst. You just have two curves. You

22:13

extend Whimo's curve in 2,100. They have

22:17

like 5,000.

22:19

>> I don't know. I think you're being too

22:21

generous, Joe. We already know several

22:23

analysts who has said and repeated many

22:25

times,

22:26

>> uh, this is a commodity. Uh, Tesla

22:29

proves it, great. But all other car

22:31

companies can get it out in six months.

22:33

It's just

22:35

>> But this is all specul. I think this is

22:38

will go out of the window because it's

22:40

total speculative stupid talk

22:42

>> h because no nothing happens on any

22:44

front at the moment where Tesla actually

22:47

scales it's game over because then they

22:49

look stupid it's like well nothing is h

22:52

what are you talking about nothing is

22:53

happening but

22:54

>> just comment that they don't believe

22:56

themselves okay um so this is an odd

22:59

move by who I don't know why they did

23:01

this you tell me who bought Apple's

23:04

self-driving car proving ground for $220

23:06

million So, if you remember, Apple had

23:09

this program that they spent 10 years,

23:11

$10 billion because they really wanted

23:13

to get into the self-driving car project

23:16

uh business as well. Then they abandoned

23:18

it. Well, they had owned a 5,500 acre

23:22

self-driving car proving ground for 200

23:25

or for in Arizona of which just bought.

23:29

It includes a 115 acre city course,

23:32

35 acre vehicle dynamics area, a four

23:35

mile oval track, and a freeway course

23:37

for AV testing. So, this is like a place

23:39

to test an AV in your own private

23:42

grounds. Like, why do you need that

23:44

Whimo? You're apparently got 10 cities,

23:46

you've got 3,000 cars, you've got all

23:49

that data already. Why do you need to do

23:51

this? I don't understand. Uh, the

23:54

purchase rounds out Whimo's already

23:56

robust network of closed test courses.

23:58

The Alphabet owned company still uses

24:00

the castle proving ground in California

24:02

as well as a transportation resource

24:03

center in Ohio. Both of these are

24:06

dwarfed by the Arizona location. So, I

24:10

don't know, man. So, yeah.

24:13

I mean, uh, you know, my theory about

24:16

Whimo, my my theory about Whimo is they

24:19

just don't have a technology. I think

24:21

it's fake news. That's what I think. I

24:23

think they have to remote control these

24:25

cars

24:26

and they can't really test them in the

24:30

real world. I mean that's the big

24:31

difference to Tesla. Tesla does not

24:34

remote control the cars because you have

24:37

millions of people who have FSD in their

24:39

Teslas. You cannot remote control them

24:41

and they have used FSD all over the

24:43

place. That's why I'm saying I always

24:45

said the technology advantage of FSD

24:48

over Whimo might be vastly greater than

24:50

anyone thinks because Tesla has proven

24:54

that this stuff kind of works not maybe

24:56

not perfectly but it works in reality

25:00

because you can't fake this whereas way

25:02

more absolutely can fake it with 3,000

25:05

vehicles. I mean you you hire three thou

25:07

not even 3,000 you hire 300 people in

25:09

the Philippines

25:10

>> and you can remote control them all.

25:12

It's ridiculous. So

25:13

>> not remote control but you know whenever

25:15

there's an issue they're carefully

25:17

following it every

25:17

>> while you can live life monitor all

25:19

3,000 without a problem by humans which

25:22

is fake. So I think the fact that they

25:25

are buying these proven grounds is

25:26

another indication that I might be right

25:29

because you know what I think it is

25:30

self-driving unsupervised self-driving

25:33

you can't do that in a real city and

25:37

they can do it in their proving grounds

25:38

and just remove all the oversight and

25:40

put them all in there and let them drive

25:41

and see who crashes. So I think I I can

25:44

just reemphasize this. If you look at

25:46

the Whimo team, how they approach

25:47

things, if you look at Tesla, the odds

25:49

that Whimo simply doesn't have full

25:52

self-driving are high.

25:54

>> Yeah, I think I think uh remember you

25:56

and I have been saying for quite a while

25:58

that your theory has been that Whimo has

26:01

used LiDAR and they did that because

26:03

they started a decade ago and that was

26:06

the only tool and now that they've

26:07

invested heavily in it, they you can't

26:09

just pull it away and that's why they're

26:10

still stuck with it. But they know it

26:12

doesn't work and they know it doesn't

26:13

scale. Then your theory was we're going

26:15

to go and expand to 10 cities. We're

26:17

going to get the reg regulation. We're

26:19

going to get it going despite that it's

26:21

completely live monitoring and remote

26:23

workers and costing us billions of

26:24

dollars. They lose a $100 per ride right

26:27

now. Every ride loses them $100. That's

26:29

okay. At least we're there. But then

26:31

they're going to switch out the cars and

26:33

they will have eventually their own

26:34

neural net vision only solution.

26:37

>> And now let's say let's say you're doing

26:39

a vision only neural net solution.

26:41

>> What do you do if you're whimo? You need

26:43

a proven ground and let's say you throw

26:45

300 cars out there to test it out and

26:47

capture data because what did Tesla do?

26:50

They put it into their normal cars and

26:53

let you and I, you know, me drive this

26:55

thing around and then testing FSE for

26:57

them FSE supervised. They don't have

26:59

that ability and so they need to have

27:01

their own proven grounds to be able to

27:03

do this. They're testing in their neural

27:05

net vision only solution. It could be

27:07

one solution, one answer for why they're

27:09

doing this.

27:10

>> Yeah. Uh it's just an indication that

27:13

they don't have solved they didn't solve

27:15

the problem yet.

27:17

>> I mean we don't know if Tesla has this.

27:19

They might have a tiny little racetrack

27:20

but they don't have like acres of a fake

27:24

city.

27:26

>> We don't know that they're doing that

27:28

>> because they've got global the real

27:30

city. The the thing is that Tesla has

27:34

proven beyond a reasonable doubt that

27:37

they have something that is real because

27:40

you can't have FSD in millions of cars

27:44

and monitor it. It's that simple. They

27:47

can't fake it. Whereas

27:48

>> have live monitoring of my car when I

27:50

decide to go to the restaurant tomorrow

27:53

tonight. If I go to the restaurant,

27:55

there's somebody there going, "Oh,

27:56

there's Herbert." Herbert,

28:01

>> that's not gonna happen.

28:02

>> I'm telling you, Joe. I'm telling you, I

28:04

keep telling you every time we watch

28:05

this. I am

28:06

>> Well, but my problem, Herbert, like my

28:08

problem always was I don't doubt that

28:10

there is no competition. I always was

28:12

was very clear on that. My question is,

28:14

does it when does it sufficiently work?

28:17

That was always my scary question. Hard

28:20

to tell, but I mean there's lots of

28:22

witnesses who say like you and many

28:24

others, well, it works with me nearly

28:26

always. So then it gets to

28:29

>> 100% never have not had an issue. No

28:33

critical disengagements. I do a lot of

28:35

disengagements for parking and my garage

28:36

and know so forth and and uh I think

28:39

they just want to be perfect.

28:42

>> But you know in general I'm very

28:44

comfortable with it driving me anywhere

28:46

in the in my states that I go to. So I'm

28:51

again it's just a one person. So who

28:52

knows if that's not yet there's

28:54

incidents people are having incidents.

28:56

Okay. So that's what we're we don't know

28:58

yet because we're talking the law of

28:59

large numbers now and you got to be

29:02

perfect. So we're not there yet, but

29:05

once it is, it can be done almost any.

29:07

>> I think there's also another problem by

29:09

the way. Uh I don't know who said this.

29:12

Someone smart said it on X that if you

29:16

put your commercial hat on,

29:19

there's a whole different problem that

29:21

people underestimate. You need a

29:23

critical mass of cars if you want to

29:24

have a business. right per city you

29:27

can't just if you have real uh ride

29:30

share you cannot have a 100 cars in

29:32

Austin in my opinion

29:34

>> or you'll lose money yes

29:35

>> or you lose money or you have

29:36

unsatisfied customers who say why do I

29:38

have to wait 15 minutes so there is uh

29:41

network effects and all kinds of stuff

29:42

so you need out of the gate a critical

29:44

mass and so

29:45

>> very good point

29:47

>> otherwise you just lose money left and

29:48

right and they have very unhappy

29:50

customers and Uber uh way more solve the

29:53

problem with Uber so they just weave

29:55

Yeah, weave it into the network. That's

29:58

why they don't care if they have just

29:59

two cars. But Tesla can't really do that

30:02

if they get serious about actual

30:03

commercial use. Not just Herbert and

30:05

Joe, the fans, but like normal people.

30:08

>> So, and that's a hurdle, right? So, but

30:11

this is just to the point of Kathy

30:13

saying all at once,

30:16

they might have to do it all at once if

30:18

they want to be commercial.

30:20

>> Makes sense actually. Makes a lot of

30:22

sense.

30:22

>> Which is like an interesting point,

30:23

right? Maybe they also waiting for that

30:25

point which is a much higher hurdle and

30:27

that would be of course deadly if you're

30:29

shorted the stock because if they

30:31

actually have to do it like oh we can

30:33

only do we can only go from uh uh 20

30:36

unsupervised to 2,000 in one day that

30:39

would be interesting like

30:40

>> yeah I think they need minimum 300 to

30:42

500 per city um otherwise look right now

30:45

you're pissing a lot of people off in

30:47

Austin lots of them 20 minute wait times

30:49

you know sometimes you don't get it all

30:51

that um it's down a lot. They pull cars

30:55

off, but then why are they creating

30:57

these lots and filling them up with many

30:59

cars and then they keep pumping out the

31:01

cyber cabs because yeah, they're they're

31:03

going to get enough per city, let's say

31:05

300, 500 per city and then when you roll

31:09

it out, you don't want to piss like so

31:11

you don't want to expand beyond Dallas

31:12

and Houston. They just did Dallas and

31:14

Houston just to show they're making

31:15

moves. You don't want to keep rolling it

31:17

out if you're only having handfuls of

31:19

cars. So, you're right. I think that's a

31:21

very good point. Yeah. All right. Okay.

31:25

Thank you so much.

31:25

>> Also, you see you see like a lot of

31:27

these cars, not just Cyber Cast, but

31:28

when you look at these lots, these are

31:30

like a 100 cars or something or more,

31:32

>> right? Yeah, that's what I mean. They're

31:33

they're building them up. They're going

31:35

to so that they're ready when they're

31:37

launched this real service.

31:40

Thank you, Joe. Always very insightful.

31:42

Appreciate you. Check out his website at

31:44

pionerlands.org.

31:46

Thank you, everybody.

31:47

>> Thank you. I've created a website that

31:49

is the most comprehensive resource for

31:50

the Tesla investor. Please check it out.

31:53

Simply go to my website at herbond.com.

Interactive Summary

The video discusses the latest developments regarding Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Robotaxi programs, including recent regulatory approvals in Europe and safety data from the Netherlands. The host and guest analyze Tesla's strategy, the role of Cybercab manufacturing, and how Tesla's scaling might eventually outpace Waymo. They also delve into the competitive landscape, specifically questioning Waymo's recent acquisition of a large test facility, and discuss the importance of achieving critical mass in vehicle numbers for a successful commercial rollout.

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