SpaceX Financials Look Good?
437 segments
Hey guys, it's Will. Hopefully you're
having a great day today. So, the SpaceX
IPO is the most anticipated IPO of this
century. And some CEOs from top tech
companies are saying that this IPO will
be 100 or 300 times greater than any of
the previous IPOs we saw in
comparable.com boom era stocks. you're
going to see that there is a correlation
now where we're seeing a much much
greater anticipation of this SpaceX IPO
than any other IPO we've seen in
history. We just wrapped up our daily
live trading session where we were
trading uh not much. We had KE going, we
had AOI in the data center markets,
Photonix markets. While the data center
market was doing quite well, the space
tech market has been off to an okay
start this week. Rocket Lab, one of the
top endtoend companies, did find that
bottom we are looking for right here
that we saw on Friday around that $15
range. We did see that bounce this
morning and they bounced up from 105 to
now sitting at about 113 as we approach
midday in Monday's session. If you were
to look back from May 27th, that's when
the sell-off started right around the
Blue Origin explosion. Almost every
single one of these space stocks has
been selling off since. If you look at
red wire, it's a similar situation where
we've seen that pullback from $28 now
finding potentially a bottom here around
$17, bouncing slightly and seeing a big
dip on Friday, but today seeing a little
bit of momentum carrying them
potentially into that continued reversal
with targets back up into those $20 to
$25 levels for Redwire. So, Redwire,
RDW, Intuitive Machines over on LUNR,
that is a stock that's also seen
all-time highs recently up to $46 and
then sold down. We did see that bottom
actually not hold on LUNR, Intuitive
Machines. They're a top infrastructure
play that has been seeing a lot of
transportation contracts connecting
different infrastructure up in space and
they're working on the lunar missions
and they have actually continued their
downtrend not finding support dragging
it out a little bit. There's that trend
potential where they do see the reversal
continue up into these levels. So, I'm
traveling and I'm at this Mammoth Hotel
here over in Mammoth Mountains. And one
of the things that's so interesting
about this Space Tech IPO, you know, we
got internet here. It was kind of slow
today in our market session. You know,
Wi-Fi is okay. Sometimes the different
hotels in the mountains, but then you
get into the uh, you know, the SpaceX
company Starlink that is a part of
SpaceX that they're seeing in revenue.
And I use Starlink over in the mountains
when I'm, you know, using the uh remote
internet. I got to get access with
hundreds of megabytes per second. It's
very fast. It's better than almost any
company. Um, and also we have a a rental
unit where in the past, you know,
tenants would use, you know, Wild Blue
or some VISAD or some slow internet, but
now you see that they're using, you
know, Starlink because it's so fast.
Now, because it's so fast, they're
making a lot of money. they're getting a
lot of people to switch over to their
software and some people might see that
as one of the main catalysts for what
will propel the SpaceX market is that
SpaceX shows I say SpaceX space tech
market so that basically they have some
revenues to show they see some good
growth from the space um Starlink
technology but that's the thing you know
I don't think that's going to be the
only thing if we were to look at SpaceX
right now the biggest um catalyst right
now most likely is going to be this um
XAI deal. So XAI is Elon's other company
where they have the largest
supercomputer in the world, the uh
Colossus they call it, and they recently
partnered with Google. So if you guys
aren't aware, Elon actually merged XAI
with SpaceX. So now SpaceX,
it's possible that this um space tech
market, I don't know if they're thinking
about this for the reasoning. Maybe they
are, maybe they aren't. It's just a net
positive um down to the roots, usually a
better deal if you have a company kind
of merge with others um so that it can
just be more valuable. But when it comes
down to the integrity of this IPO and
how we could see, you know, a lot of
people scared about a big selloff,
right? You get a big um let's say uh
recover or a big selloff after this um
IPO, which by the way, you probably can
buy IPO shares. If you're over on Robin
Hood, they have the IPO shares. I think
they had them on Weeble. You can get
them on various platforms right now. But
but one of the concerns is that you see
a big sell-off. But with this deal, if
you look at this deal, it's a 32-month
um just agreement with Google where
they're actually getting nearly a
billion dollars monthly. SpaceX will be
earning a billion dollars monthly
through the division of SpaceX that is
XAI, which is the largest AI
supercomputer in the world for Google to
pay nearly a billion monthly, $920
million to be exact, for $110,000
Nvidia GPUs to meet the surging AI
demand, making a significant partnership
between the competitors. Now, what's
important about this deal and why I
would really um stress that, you know,
this isn't probably your average IPO. If
you had just an IPO like a company like,
you know, Virgin Galactic, Virgin
Galactic came out, ticker symbol SPCE,
and they came out with their IPO.
Everybody was really excited. And then,
you know, the financials hit, which we
like to use, Prophecy over here. Let me
pull it up as well. If you want to stay
up to date with the top data center
companies, space tech companies, quantum
companies, there's a lot to cover, but
sometimes it could be hard to stay up to
date with all of them. I use Prophecy.
It's got the best AI models in the world
with the best data in the world to get
the accurate projections. Our timeframed
projections of 1 hour, 4 hour, 1 day,
and 1 week are over 60% accurate. That's
how we're actually able to take that
trade this morning. Um, and how we're
able to consistently be able to grow our
account is using Prophecy. But you see
some negative projections there. If
you'd like to get access to Prophecy,
it's the third link in the description
below to go get access. But my point is
is that when we're looking at this move
here with Virgin Galactic, for example,
when they IPOed, negative net income,
revenues basically non-existent. Um,
they didn't have financials to really
back anything. And like most IPOs that
are in those types of situations, they
continued to sell down by, you know,
98%. They kind of hyped up. People were
excited. They spiked up to $850, even up
to $1,200. But as it is today, after
that February 2021 uh high of $1,230
or whatever, now they are back down to
$4 a share, and they've sold off
tremendously. They've had this little
pump obviously ahead of the SpaceX IPO.
But the reason that they sold off is
simply because the integrity of the
financials were so poor that while it
was really exciting and the technicals
were kind of like trending and it was
bullish and everybody's, you know, hyped
up, uh, it wasn't sustainable. Just like
anything in life, if it's built without
integrity, then it won't be sustained.
And so when it comes down to, you know,
this SpaceX IPO and people look at
SpaceX, what's the number one common
misconception that people might have
about this IPO, it's most likely going
to be that they're anticipating that big
sellown, not very solid financials, not
really good uh revenue generation, that
they're going to be operating at big
losses. But guess what? If they have XAI
and they just signed a $30 billion deal
with Google and they're now getting to a
point where rather than spending
hundreds of millions of dollars, they're
spending drastically less. And you can
see how much does SpaceX save on
uh reusable rockets. Uh apparently, you
know, um for example, using their they
save about 25 million or $30 million per
launch and now it says refurbishing a
landed booster for another flight costs
approximately
250,000 to 1 million. So now their
expenses have gone down massively u with
fuel costs being the main consideration
with about 200 to $300,000 per launch.
And then there's maybe some other, you
know, changes they have to make that
can, you know, maybe tally up to a
million dollars. But it's not like
they're spending uh like some rocket
companies that may spend, you know, 20,
30, $50 million or more to put these um
rockets into space. No, they're actually
seeing revenues. I mean, I don't know if
they have the the numbers out. Um, but
we can see how much does Starlink uh
generate, you know, quarterly right now.
I don't know if we can know if that's
out yet. Okay, so like right now revenue
SpaceX IPO Starlink generated 3.26
billion just in the first quarter of
2026. Let's say quarterly. So 3.26. I
know they're growing, so let's just
expect they're going to come out to
maybe close to $15 billion. 2025 alone,
they were at 11.4. I'm actually
anticipating they're going to come out
minimum $15 billion in that. So, they
got 15 billion there. Okay, they've got
the Google deal, but we can also say um
so let's call it 15 billion on the
Starlink, but then let's also say um
let's say XAI. So you got 15 billion and
then um according to 2025 XAI was
actually at a net loss of a billion
dollars in the quarter. But now that we
see this recent deal with Google, we're
going to see them g make nearly a
billion dollars per month multiplied by
three. They're most likely going to see
about um uh $3 billion extra in revenue
from this Google deal that they just
signed. So that actually puts them at a
positive net income potentially because
currently, you know, with um with their
current spend, it's about 1.6 billion
per quarter. So they're expected to make
about three billion per quarter with
this deal. So what does that mean?
They're probably going to come out with
a positive 2 billion. So you got a
positive 2 billion there on XAI. You got
a positive um uh you got a positive
about let's call it 4 billion on the um
uh Starlink. Okay. So then so that comes
out to about six billion per quarter.
And who knows what else, you know, they
have coming out related to um their
launch uh what they're getting paid for
launch. Let's say uh quarterly minus um
minus Starlink.
And let's see what they say. According
for May 2026,
yeah, they're coming out. So, I just
said they're coming out with most likely
between uh let's say five five billion
per quarter. That's what they did in
quarter 2026. So, they're looking at
probably about 5 billion to6 billion.
Okay. Companies doing 5 billion to 6
billion uh per quarter. Okay. So, let's
say and that was maybe before the
Starlink and the XAI. So let's just say
between five to7 billion dollars per
quarter that they're expected to
generate. Um you know if you look at a
company let's just you know take a let's
take a top company let's say Nvidia top
company in the world you know how much
are they doing per quarter you know
that's the question in a quarterly basis
on income they're doing about let's see
80 billion. Okay so 80 billion and
they're they're at 5.2 two trillion. So,
this is just revenues. You know, this
could be rough because you got like
balance sheets, you could look at, you
know, the the net income, all that stuff
for sure. Uh, but 5.2 trillion, you
know, $80 billion in that quarter.
Record record quarter. Obviously,
they're growing drastically. Nvidia. Um,
so you say, let's say they're 5 to 7,
maybe 8 billion, so about onetenth the
size, you know, a fair maybe market
valuation without considering the fact
that they could potentially merge with
Tesla, which a lot of investors are
expecting with this SpaceX um, IPO later
on is they're going to merge with Tesla.
Seems like that's what Elon wants to do.
But just aside from that, you know,
probably fair value. I mean, maybe we're
looking at like500 to $800 billion
um of what SpaceX's like fair value
would be, but that would be like a fair
value. Not anticipating that there's
going to be growth, that there's going
to be um Starlink continuing to ramp up
that it's an Elon company. Got to put a
premium on that. Um and so if they come
in, you know, we'll just see where they
come in. But my point is is that you
know it might not be as drastic. It
definitely I do I don't I don't see this
thing being one of these Virgin Galactic
instances where you see a 98% sellown
after IPO and I will be buying some
shares and holding some shares of SpaceX
at IPO. I have friends that work at
SpaceX and Rocket Lab and I think that
they're a really good company longterm.
I'm going to continue to hold them and I
use Starlink. I love the technology.
Yes, we could see that potential big
sell and you could see the whole market
kind of dip after this IPO, but there's
also that potential there is that
potential that they could actually
stabilize and hold between that 1 to2
trillion and then on the fact that they
may merge with Tesla or something
actually hold at two to four trillion
and you actually could see those bull
cases where they actually stabilize
between that two to four trillion dollar
level. So, while we're seeing the levels
we're seeing, I just want to um preface
that, you know, obviously there's big
risk in the IPO selling off, but that a
lot of these space companies being the
frontiers that they are, a lot of them I
hold five 10 years and we've been
touching on them since $2, $3 a share
like Rocket Lab, um or you know,
Redwire, we've been covering that one
since four, five bucks a share. we see
them, their financials look excellent
and they've sold off tremendously and
they're at that uh well, they're now up
down to $19, but they're still at a um
they're still at a discount. And so, um
my point is is that the SpaceX market,
if you're long-term, it's actually a
beautiful time to be looking at it. If
you're really short-term and you're
expecting to make money in the next
three days, five days, or a week, you
can totally do that. But the way that
you'd probably want to play it, at least
this is how I would play it and this is
kind of how we do it is let's say you're
trading LU and R if it's shortterm it's
technical. You might look at a previous
resistance. You might look you know for
that that continue of the trend and
you're going to see them you know
continue up here and you might look for
them to to bounce around a support level
here. And you might say okay we're going
to see that potential recovery of you
know 25 30% or maybe it's just a day
trade up to that 10 20%. Let's say
you're doing a swing trade. All right,
so you're going for 50%. You don't even
want to hold the company long term.
Maybe you don't like them uh long term.
You're just capitalizing on SpaceX hype.
You think it's going to rally. Well, in
that case, you know, manage risk. You
know, have a stop-loss uh down here
where it's like you're not going to lose
more than, you know, two or 3% uh or 4%
or something like that. and go for that
margin for profit up here of, you know,
40 50% and just have clear risk
management. Use things like a stop-loss,
you know, go for those margins for
profit, but do it in a structured way,
in a short-term trade. When we take
trades like that, we do it at market
open because that's when the best
opportunities present themselves. And we
use tools like Prophecy that gives us
accurate projections of over 50%
direction accuracy in the short term for
the next 1 hour, 4 hour, and 1 day. So,
if we're doing it, we have clear tools
that help us keep up with any stock from
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I earned your thumbs up, hit the like
button. Let me know your thoughts down
below on what you think on the SpaceX
IPO. Again, you could see that big
potential surge, but I don't think the
correction will be as large as we might
expect if we do get a big valley after
the IPO. Do consider subscribing and
I'll see you in the next video. Take
care.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video discusses the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, contrasting it with other space tech stocks like Rocket Lab, Redwire, and Intuitive Machines. Will highlights Starlink's revenue growth and a significant deal with Google involving XAI supercomputing as major catalysts that provide financial substance, distinguishing this IPO from past instances like Virgin Galactic. He offers insights on trading strategies for the IPO, emphasizing risk management, long-term potential, and the use of his tool, Prophecy, for market analysis.
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