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SpaceX Financials Look Good?

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SpaceX Financials Look Good?

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437 segments

0:00

Hey guys, it's Will. Hopefully you're

0:01

having a great day today. So, the SpaceX

0:03

IPO is the most anticipated IPO of this

0:06

century. And some CEOs from top tech

0:09

companies are saying that this IPO will

0:11

be 100 or 300 times greater than any of

0:14

the previous IPOs we saw in

0:16

comparable.com boom era stocks. you're

0:19

going to see that there is a correlation

0:22

now where we're seeing a much much

0:23

greater anticipation of this SpaceX IPO

0:27

than any other IPO we've seen in

0:29

history. We just wrapped up our daily

0:31

live trading session where we were

0:32

trading uh not much. We had KE going, we

0:35

had AOI in the data center markets,

0:37

Photonix markets. While the data center

0:39

market was doing quite well, the space

0:42

tech market has been off to an okay

0:44

start this week. Rocket Lab, one of the

0:47

top endtoend companies, did find that

0:49

bottom we are looking for right here

0:51

that we saw on Friday around that $15

0:54

range. We did see that bounce this

0:56

morning and they bounced up from 105 to

0:58

now sitting at about 113 as we approach

1:02

midday in Monday's session. If you were

1:05

to look back from May 27th, that's when

1:07

the sell-off started right around the

1:08

Blue Origin explosion. Almost every

1:11

single one of these space stocks has

1:12

been selling off since. If you look at

1:14

red wire, it's a similar situation where

1:16

we've seen that pullback from $28 now

1:19

finding potentially a bottom here around

1:22

$17, bouncing slightly and seeing a big

1:26

dip on Friday, but today seeing a little

1:28

bit of momentum carrying them

1:30

potentially into that continued reversal

1:32

with targets back up into those $20 to

1:35

$25 levels for Redwire. So, Redwire,

1:38

RDW, Intuitive Machines over on LUNR,

1:42

that is a stock that's also seen

1:44

all-time highs recently up to $46 and

1:47

then sold down. We did see that bottom

1:51

actually not hold on LUNR, Intuitive

1:54

Machines. They're a top infrastructure

1:56

play that has been seeing a lot of

1:58

transportation contracts connecting

2:01

different infrastructure up in space and

2:04

they're working on the lunar missions

2:06

and they have actually continued their

2:08

downtrend not finding support dragging

2:11

it out a little bit. There's that trend

2:13

potential where they do see the reversal

2:16

continue up into these levels. So, I'm

2:18

traveling and I'm at this Mammoth Hotel

2:20

here over in Mammoth Mountains. And one

2:24

of the things that's so interesting

2:26

about this Space Tech IPO, you know, we

2:29

got internet here. It was kind of slow

2:30

today in our market session. You know,

2:32

Wi-Fi is okay. Sometimes the different

2:34

hotels in the mountains, but then you

2:36

get into the uh, you know, the SpaceX

2:39

company Starlink that is a part of

2:42

SpaceX that they're seeing in revenue.

2:44

And I use Starlink over in the mountains

2:47

when I'm, you know, using the uh remote

2:49

internet. I got to get access with

2:51

hundreds of megabytes per second. It's

2:53

very fast. It's better than almost any

2:56

company. Um, and also we have a a rental

2:59

unit where in the past, you know,

3:01

tenants would use, you know, Wild Blue

3:04

or some VISAD or some slow internet, but

3:07

now you see that they're using, you

3:09

know, Starlink because it's so fast.

3:11

Now, because it's so fast, they're

3:13

making a lot of money. they're getting a

3:14

lot of people to switch over to their

3:15

software and some people might see that

3:17

as one of the main catalysts for what

3:19

will propel the SpaceX market is that

3:22

SpaceX shows I say SpaceX space tech

3:25

market so that basically they have some

3:29

revenues to show they see some good

3:31

growth from the space um Starlink

3:35

technology but that's the thing you know

3:37

I don't think that's going to be the

3:38

only thing if we were to look at SpaceX

3:40

right now the biggest um catalyst right

3:43

now most likely is going to be this um

3:47

XAI deal. So XAI is Elon's other company

3:52

where they have the largest

3:53

supercomputer in the world, the uh

3:55

Colossus they call it, and they recently

3:58

partnered with Google. So if you guys

4:01

aren't aware, Elon actually merged XAI

4:05

with SpaceX. So now SpaceX,

4:09

it's possible that this um space tech

4:13

market, I don't know if they're thinking

4:14

about this for the reasoning. Maybe they

4:16

are, maybe they aren't. It's just a net

4:18

positive um down to the roots, usually a

4:21

better deal if you have a company kind

4:23

of merge with others um so that it can

4:26

just be more valuable. But when it comes

4:28

down to the integrity of this IPO and

4:31

how we could see, you know, a lot of

4:33

people scared about a big selloff,

4:35

right? You get a big um let's say uh

4:38

recover or a big selloff after this um

4:42

IPO, which by the way, you probably can

4:44

buy IPO shares. If you're over on Robin

4:46

Hood, they have the IPO shares. I think

4:48

they had them on Weeble. You can get

4:50

them on various platforms right now. But

4:53

but one of the concerns is that you see

4:54

a big sell-off. But with this deal, if

4:56

you look at this deal, it's a 32-month

4:59

um just agreement with Google where

5:01

they're actually getting nearly a

5:03

billion dollars monthly. SpaceX will be

5:06

earning a billion dollars monthly

5:08

through the division of SpaceX that is

5:11

XAI, which is the largest AI

5:16

supercomputer in the world for Google to

5:18

pay nearly a billion monthly, $920

5:21

million to be exact, for $110,000

5:25

Nvidia GPUs to meet the surging AI

5:28

demand, making a significant partnership

5:30

between the competitors. Now, what's

5:32

important about this deal and why I

5:34

would really um stress that, you know,

5:36

this isn't probably your average IPO. If

5:39

you had just an IPO like a company like,

5:42

you know, Virgin Galactic, Virgin

5:44

Galactic came out, ticker symbol SPCE,

5:48

and they came out with their IPO.

5:50

Everybody was really excited. And then,

5:52

you know, the financials hit, which we

5:55

like to use, Prophecy over here. Let me

5:57

pull it up as well. If you want to stay

5:59

up to date with the top data center

6:00

companies, space tech companies, quantum

6:02

companies, there's a lot to cover, but

6:04

sometimes it could be hard to stay up to

6:06

date with all of them. I use Prophecy.

6:08

It's got the best AI models in the world

6:10

with the best data in the world to get

6:12

the accurate projections. Our timeframed

6:15

projections of 1 hour, 4 hour, 1 day,

6:17

and 1 week are over 60% accurate. That's

6:20

how we're actually able to take that

6:21

trade this morning. Um, and how we're

6:23

able to consistently be able to grow our

6:26

account is using Prophecy. But you see

6:28

some negative projections there. If

6:30

you'd like to get access to Prophecy,

6:32

it's the third link in the description

6:34

below to go get access. But my point is

6:36

is that when we're looking at this move

6:38

here with Virgin Galactic, for example,

6:40

when they IPOed, negative net income,

6:43

revenues basically non-existent. Um,

6:46

they didn't have financials to really

6:48

back anything. And like most IPOs that

6:51

are in those types of situations, they

6:53

continued to sell down by, you know,

6:54

98%. They kind of hyped up. People were

6:57

excited. They spiked up to $850, even up

7:00

to $1,200. But as it is today, after

7:04

that February 2021 uh high of $1,230

7:09

or whatever, now they are back down to

7:11

$4 a share, and they've sold off

7:14

tremendously. They've had this little

7:16

pump obviously ahead of the SpaceX IPO.

7:19

But the reason that they sold off is

7:21

simply because the integrity of the

7:22

financials were so poor that while it

7:25

was really exciting and the technicals

7:27

were kind of like trending and it was

7:28

bullish and everybody's, you know, hyped

7:30

up, uh, it wasn't sustainable. Just like

7:33

anything in life, if it's built without

7:34

integrity, then it won't be sustained.

7:37

And so when it comes down to, you know,

7:39

this SpaceX IPO and people look at

7:41

SpaceX, what's the number one common

7:44

misconception that people might have

7:45

about this IPO, it's most likely going

7:48

to be that they're anticipating that big

7:50

sellown, not very solid financials, not

7:54

really good uh revenue generation, that

7:57

they're going to be operating at big

7:59

losses. But guess what? If they have XAI

8:02

and they just signed a $30 billion deal

8:04

with Google and they're now getting to a

8:07

point where rather than spending

8:08

hundreds of millions of dollars, they're

8:11

spending drastically less. And you can

8:14

see how much does SpaceX save on

8:20

uh reusable rockets. Uh apparently, you

8:24

know, um for example, using their they

8:27

save about 25 million or $30 million per

8:30

launch and now it says refurbishing a

8:33

landed booster for another flight costs

8:35

approximately

8:37

250,000 to 1 million. So now their

8:40

expenses have gone down massively u with

8:43

fuel costs being the main consideration

8:45

with about 200 to $300,000 per launch.

8:49

And then there's maybe some other, you

8:50

know, changes they have to make that

8:52

can, you know, maybe tally up to a

8:54

million dollars. But it's not like

8:56

they're spending uh like some rocket

8:58

companies that may spend, you know, 20,

9:01

30, $50 million or more to put these um

9:06

rockets into space. No, they're actually

9:09

seeing revenues. I mean, I don't know if

9:10

they have the the numbers out. Um, but

9:14

we can see how much does Starlink uh

9:18

generate, you know, quarterly right now.

9:22

I don't know if we can know if that's

9:24

out yet. Okay, so like right now revenue

9:27

SpaceX IPO Starlink generated 3.26

9:31

billion just in the first quarter of

9:35

2026. Let's say quarterly. So 3.26. I

9:39

know they're growing, so let's just

9:40

expect they're going to come out to

9:42

maybe close to $15 billion. 2025 alone,

9:45

they were at 11.4. I'm actually

9:48

anticipating they're going to come out

9:49

minimum $15 billion in that. So, they

9:53

got 15 billion there. Okay, they've got

9:56

the Google deal, but we can also say um

9:59

so let's call it 15 billion on the

10:01

Starlink, but then let's also say um

10:04

let's say XAI. So you got 15 billion and

10:09

then um according to 2025 XAI was

10:14

actually at a net loss of a billion

10:16

dollars in the quarter. But now that we

10:19

see this recent deal with Google, we're

10:21

going to see them g make nearly a

10:23

billion dollars per month multiplied by

10:26

three. They're most likely going to see

10:28

about um uh $3 billion extra in revenue

10:34

from this Google deal that they just

10:36

signed. So that actually puts them at a

10:39

positive net income potentially because

10:41

currently, you know, with um with their

10:43

current spend, it's about 1.6 billion

10:45

per quarter. So they're expected to make

10:48

about three billion per quarter with

10:50

this deal. So what does that mean?

10:52

They're probably going to come out with

10:53

a positive 2 billion. So you got a

10:55

positive 2 billion there on XAI. You got

10:58

a positive um uh you got a positive

11:03

about let's call it 4 billion on the um

11:08

uh Starlink. Okay. So then so that comes

11:12

out to about six billion per quarter.

11:15

And who knows what else, you know, they

11:17

have coming out related to um their

11:22

launch uh what they're getting paid for

11:25

launch. Let's say uh quarterly minus um

11:30

minus Starlink.

11:32

And let's see what they say. According

11:35

for May 2026,

11:37

yeah, they're coming out. So, I just

11:39

said they're coming out with most likely

11:41

between uh let's say five five billion

11:44

per quarter. That's what they did in

11:46

quarter 2026. So, they're looking at

11:49

probably about 5 billion to6 billion.

11:52

Okay. Companies doing 5 billion to 6

11:55

billion uh per quarter. Okay. So, let's

11:58

say and that was maybe before the

12:01

Starlink and the XAI. So let's just say

12:04

between five to7 billion dollars per

12:06

quarter that they're expected to

12:08

generate. Um you know if you look at a

12:10

company let's just you know take a let's

12:12

take a top company let's say Nvidia top

12:15

company in the world you know how much

12:18

are they doing per quarter you know

12:21

that's the question in a quarterly basis

12:24

on income they're doing about let's see

12:27

80 billion. Okay so 80 billion and

12:30

they're they're at 5.2 two trillion. So,

12:33

this is just revenues. You know, this

12:34

could be rough because you got like

12:36

balance sheets, you could look at, you

12:38

know, the the net income, all that stuff

12:41

for sure. Uh, but 5.2 trillion, you

12:43

know, $80 billion in that quarter.

12:46

Record record quarter. Obviously,

12:47

they're growing drastically. Nvidia. Um,

12:51

so you say, let's say they're 5 to 7,

12:53

maybe 8 billion, so about onetenth the

12:55

size, you know, a fair maybe market

12:58

valuation without considering the fact

13:01

that they could potentially merge with

13:02

Tesla, which a lot of investors are

13:05

expecting with this SpaceX um, IPO later

13:08

on is they're going to merge with Tesla.

13:10

Seems like that's what Elon wants to do.

13:12

But just aside from that, you know,

13:14

probably fair value. I mean, maybe we're

13:16

looking at like500 to $800 billion

13:21

um of what SpaceX's like fair value

13:25

would be, but that would be like a fair

13:27

value. Not anticipating that there's

13:30

going to be growth, that there's going

13:31

to be um Starlink continuing to ramp up

13:34

that it's an Elon company. Got to put a

13:36

premium on that. Um and so if they come

13:39

in, you know, we'll just see where they

13:41

come in. But my point is is that you

13:43

know it might not be as drastic. It

13:46

definitely I do I don't I don't see this

13:48

thing being one of these Virgin Galactic

13:50

instances where you see a 98% sellown

13:53

after IPO and I will be buying some

13:56

shares and holding some shares of SpaceX

13:58

at IPO. I have friends that work at

14:00

SpaceX and Rocket Lab and I think that

14:03

they're a really good company longterm.

14:04

I'm going to continue to hold them and I

14:05

use Starlink. I love the technology.

14:07

Yes, we could see that potential big

14:09

sell and you could see the whole market

14:11

kind of dip after this IPO, but there's

14:13

also that potential there is that

14:15

potential that they could actually

14:17

stabilize and hold between that 1 to2

14:20

trillion and then on the fact that they

14:23

may merge with Tesla or something

14:25

actually hold at two to four trillion

14:28

and you actually could see those bull

14:30

cases where they actually stabilize

14:33

between that two to four trillion dollar

14:34

level. So, while we're seeing the levels

14:37

we're seeing, I just want to um preface

14:41

that, you know, obviously there's big

14:42

risk in the IPO selling off, but that a

14:45

lot of these space companies being the

14:47

frontiers that they are, a lot of them I

14:49

hold five 10 years and we've been

14:51

touching on them since $2, $3 a share

14:54

like Rocket Lab, um or you know,

14:56

Redwire, we've been covering that one

14:58

since four, five bucks a share. we see

15:00

them, their financials look excellent

15:02

and they've sold off tremendously and

15:04

they're at that uh well, they're now up

15:06

down to $19, but they're still at a um

15:09

they're still at a discount. And so, um

15:12

my point is is that the SpaceX market,

15:15

if you're long-term, it's actually a

15:17

beautiful time to be looking at it. If

15:19

you're really short-term and you're

15:20

expecting to make money in the next

15:22

three days, five days, or a week, you

15:24

can totally do that. But the way that

15:26

you'd probably want to play it, at least

15:27

this is how I would play it and this is

15:29

kind of how we do it is let's say you're

15:31

trading LU and R if it's shortterm it's

15:33

technical. You might look at a previous

15:35

resistance. You might look you know for

15:37

that that continue of the trend and

15:40

you're going to see them you know

15:41

continue up here and you might look for

15:42

them to to bounce around a support level

15:46

here. And you might say okay we're going

15:48

to see that potential recovery of you

15:50

know 25 30% or maybe it's just a day

15:52

trade up to that 10 20%. Let's say

15:54

you're doing a swing trade. All right,

15:56

so you're going for 50%. You don't even

15:58

want to hold the company long term.

15:59

Maybe you don't like them uh long term.

16:01

You're just capitalizing on SpaceX hype.

16:04

You think it's going to rally. Well, in

16:05

that case, you know, manage risk. You

16:07

know, have a stop-loss uh down here

16:10

where it's like you're not going to lose

16:12

more than, you know, two or 3% uh or 4%

16:15

or something like that. and go for that

16:17

margin for profit up here of, you know,

16:21

40 50% and just have clear risk

16:23

management. Use things like a stop-loss,

16:25

you know, go for those margins for

16:27

profit, but do it in a structured way,

16:29

in a short-term trade. When we take

16:31

trades like that, we do it at market

16:33

open because that's when the best

16:34

opportunities present themselves. And we

16:36

use tools like Prophecy that gives us

16:38

accurate projections of over 50%

16:41

direction accuracy in the short term for

16:43

the next 1 hour, 4 hour, and 1 day. So,

16:46

if we're doing it, we have clear tools

16:47

that help us keep up with any stock from

16:50

the best models in the world with the

16:51

best data in the world. And if you want

16:53

to grab it, it's the third link below.

16:55

If you want to tune on into our daily

16:56

live trading sessions that we have every

16:58

day, Monday through Friday, watch my

17:00

entries and my exits, it's the second

17:02

link in the description below. And if

17:05

you would like me to work with you on

17:06

those structured trades or help you with

17:08

long-term frontier investing in

17:10

photonics, data center, semiconductor,

17:13

robotics, maybe it's space tech, maybe

17:15

it's just AI in general, quantum

17:17

computing, a lot of these companies

17:19

we've covered since a dollar a share.

17:21

And you can find all the proof in the

17:23

first link in the description and we can

17:25

potentially work together if it's the

17:27

right move. So go have a look there. If

17:29

I earned your thumbs up, hit the like

17:30

button. Let me know your thoughts down

17:32

below on what you think on the SpaceX

17:33

IPO. Again, you could see that big

17:35

potential surge, but I don't think the

17:38

correction will be as large as we might

17:40

expect if we do get a big valley after

17:43

the IPO. Do consider subscribing and

17:45

I'll see you in the next video. Take

17:47

care.

Interactive Summary

The video discusses the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, contrasting it with other space tech stocks like Rocket Lab, Redwire, and Intuitive Machines. Will highlights Starlink's revenue growth and a significant deal with Google involving XAI supercomputing as major catalysts that provide financial substance, distinguishing this IPO from past instances like Virgin Galactic. He offers insights on trading strategies for the IPO, emphasizing risk management, long-term potential, and the use of his tool, Prophecy, for market analysis.

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