Fertility rates have dropped to an

all-time low.

>> The lowest level in three decades.

$127,000.

That's what it costs to have one kid in

America today. One kid in oh

that's for one year, by the way. Rising

costs and a declining birth rate, Copley

Hospital says it's closing its birthing

center.

>> And so, it's no wonder US birth rates

has hit another record low at 1.6 kids,

which is well below replacement rates.

But at this point I think you already

know this. But what nobody's talking

about is where that $127,000

actually goes to. Before it was

hospitals and child care, but now it's

fertility clinics, lobby groups, and now

even human engineering. And what's crazy

is they're plotting on making this a

whole lot worse. One of the companies

profiting from this literally have told

investors that their growth depends on

people not being able to afford kids on

time, and they're even going as far to

say that a worsening economy is a

potential net demand driver. And when

it's projected that in a few years more

Americans will be dying each year than

are born, you can probably see where all

this is going. And in fact, there's a

good chance it's right in front of your

eyes. I mean, my parents had my sister

at 27 and me at 30, and most likely

yours did too. Well, I'm pushing 30 now

and my girlfriend and I are still trying

to figure out how to make it all work.

So, even though I covered this before,

what I found this time made me realize I

had to make this video. Because the last

time birth rates dropped this hard was

the Great Depression. And back then, the

government actually managed to fix it.

So, the good news is that the fix

exists, but I'll show you why no one

wants to use it. Who profits from it

staying broken, and what it's already

costing all of us.

So, to kick this off, let's say you're

in your mid to late 20s, which is most

of my audience. And if you're lucky, you

and your partner have been together for

a few years. You both got jobs, maybe a

little bit of student debt, rent that

eats half your paycheck, but you really

want kids. But unfortunately, the math

doesn't work out yet, so you wait. And

guess what? That decision, which feels

like yours just made you a customer, and

I'll show you exactly who's profiting

from it and how. But first, you need to

see what actually causes this delay

that's happening. Because yes, birth

rates are at all-time lows, but it's not

just because people are choosing not to

have kids. If you look at the data birth

rates have dropped almost entirely for

women in their 20s and early 30s, which

are your prime biological years. But the

rates for women 35 and older have

actually slightly gone up. So, what this

means is that people are trying later in

life when they're more likely to be

financially secure. But what this is

pushing them into is also a lot harder

of a biological reality, but an even

more expensive road, and that's exactly

where the money is. And no, I'm not

talking about the rise of pet stores and

pet stocks, because yeah, that that

that's about to boom, too. But what I'm

actually talking about here is the rise

of the multi-billion dollar pre-birth

market. Take a company called Progeny.

That started in 2008 as like this

educational platform for people going

through IVF. And if you don't know what

IVF is, not only are they proving why

they're a company, but IVF is basically

where doctors take the egg out to

fertilize in a lab and put it back in.

It's what couples do when getting

pregnant naturally isn't working. But

that's changing, which I'll get to. But

anyways, as more companies started

offering fertility benefits to their

employees as a perk someone had to

manage all of it, and that's where

Progeny stepped in. And what a genius

move that was, because by 2019 they

became a billion-dollar company managing

fertility benefits for 80 companies,

including Google and Microsoft. And this

will be important in a bit. So, now you

might be thinking, how did they grow so

fast? Well, it's because they saw the

writing on the wall. When Progeny filed

to go public, they told investors that

they barely scratched the addressable

market. And they were confident in this,

because when they looked at their data

they knew that the infertility problem

was only going to get worse. And the

worse it gets, the more room that they

have to grow. But it wasn't just the

data, another thing was on their side,

too. An investor analysis called delayed

parenthood a demographic tailwind for

the stock in a worsening economy

potential net demand drivers. What this

means is they knew that a worse economy

means more people can't afford kids. And

the more they delay, the more people

will need fertility treatment. not just

picking on Progeny. They just filled the

demand that was there. Fertility

startups are now raising double the VC

money that they raised two years

earlier. And this is one of the fastest

growing sectors in all of health care.

And they know it's going to grow because

the problem is only getting worse, and

they know that no one is going to solve

it. business model only works if people

can't afford to have kids at 26. But I

know what most of you are thinking. If

you're 85% of my audience that are men

who gives a damn if women have to pay

that much, it's not it's not my problem.

And fair enough, considering that

probably only 10% of that 85% actually

gets girls. But what I'm about to show

you is how this bill is going to impact

everyone whether you're the one having

kids or not. Because the same system

that are profiting from the delay will

start monetizing the child the second

that they're online. And most email

services that call themselves free are

really just collecting everything every

habit, every search, and every click.

So, we were born into this system and

never got a choice, but the next

generation still can. And since they're

too young to make these decisions

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your child's email address. So, before

the break, I showed you how an entire

industry was built on people not being

able to afford kids on time. But now,

what I want to walk you through is what

it actually costs to get pregnant, have

the baby, and raise it in this beautiful

country. And to show you what I mean,

let's go back to that couple. And

actually, you know what? it. Let's

use myself and my girlfriend Sophia, who

I've been with for 3 years. And you'll

see exactly who's profiting from each

and every single step.

So, let's say a few years ago Sophia and

I started talking about kids. And we

both agreed that we wanted them, but it

was a plan for sometime in our future

while we build our careers. But then,

the company she worked for offered to

cover up to $20,000 in egg freezing. And

at first, we weren't even considering

this, because think we have time. But

then, we thought about it, and it's like

why not? It'll buy us time and save us

money. And we even knew one of our

friends who did the same. So, it felt

like a smart move, but remember that

delay is the business model now. And

this is how it's increasingly starting.

In 2014, Apple and Facebook were the

first major employers to offer egg

freezing as a benefit. And it was framed

as empowering women's reproductive

choices. And like I even mentioned

earlier, it's exploded. Now, 40% of all

US employers offer some sort of

fertility benefits. But then, you have

to think about why they're doing this.

On one hand, 72% of employees say that

they'd stay longer at a company that

offer these sorts of benefits. So, you

can't really fault a company for giving

employees what they want. But on the

other hand it's way, way, way cheaper

for a company to pay $20,000 to freeze

Sophia's eggs than to give her, you know

paid maternity leave or child care. And

another way to even look at it, it's

really the cheapest investment to keep

her working and keep her at her desk.

But come on. We shouldn't be so

ungrateful. After all, it's a choice

that we made. But these choices exactly

how the business model I are ready now.

And so, we decided to unfreeze those

eggs and use IVF. But then, this is

where we quickly find out that the

freezing was just the entrance fee. A

single cycle runs $25,000, and most

people actually don't even get pregnant

on the first try. So, the average

patient ends up actually spending more

so around $50,000 across two to four

cycles. And when only 25% of Americans

have insurance that covers any of this

this meant that $50,000 was coming

straight out of our pocket. But then, as

we're going through all this, we started

finding out about something we had no

idea that even existed. Remember our

friends who recommended that we freeze

eggs? Well turns out they didn't just

freeze them. They actually used IVF for

a very specific reason. They used a

company called Nucleus Genomics which

offers an IVF add-on for, you know, a

cheap $30,000. And how it works is they

scan the DNA of both parents, plus up to

20 embryos across over 2,000 traits.

Everything from eye color and

intelligence to disorders like

depression and bipolar. And then, you

basically get a menu where you can sort,

compare, and choose which baby that you

want. And at first, to Sophia and I, it

100% sounded like eugenics and human

engineering. But once our friends showed

us their results and explained how they

were able to screen out a genetic

disorder that runs in their family it

stopped sounding so dystopian and

started sounding like why wouldn't we do

this if we could? So screw it. We

dropped the $30,000, and we decided to

make this super baby of our dreams. So,

since she's Brazilian and I'm Japanese

we had a plan for this super baby. We're

going to name it LeMarcus Des Santo

Chimarra who will have my eye shape

Sophia's eye color my height and my

intelligence, of course. Her nose and

both of our ADHD to become the most

racially ambiguous super baby that the

world has ever seen. So, of course, I'm

taking the piss here in this theoretical

example, but it's not just a joke.

Because in reality, this industry is

growing rapidly because they made it so

appealing that now a growing number of

couples who could get pregnant naturally

are choosing IVF specifically to be able

to access the screening. So, you can see

now how every step of the pregnancy is

increasingly getting monetized through

this illusion of choice. But with that

said, Sophia's pregnant, but now we need

to actually have the baby. Well, and

this is where it really starts getting a

bit darker. Because a vaginal delivery

with pre- and post-natal care in the US

costs around $15,000, but for a

C-section, that jumps to 30,000. But

that's actually not even the point here.

What I found is that one in three US

births today are C-sections, even though

the World Health Organization says that

the ideal range should be around 10 to

15%. So, why is this happening? Well,

I'm sure you can guess, but it's because

C-sections make nearly double a vaginal

delivery. But not only that, it takes

about 45 minutes compared to a vaginal

birth that can sometimes take hours or

days. It's not just some conspiracy I'm

spouting here. A national study found

that hospitals with higher profits per

C-section were significantly more

likely, like by a fivefold difference,

to perform them regardless of the

mother's risk level. And guess which

kind of hospital we ended up at. Well,

that's fine as long as Sophia's going to

be safe, right? Well, it turns out even

though we pay more than anywhere, US has

the worst maternal mortality rate of any

developed country and over 80% of those

deaths were preventable. But let's be

grateful and thank God because the

baby's here. But Sophia better get her

ass back to work because the US is the

only developed nation on Earth with zero

guaranteed paid maternity leave, whereas

every other comparable country offers at

least 14 weeks. But it's not because

we're all raising workaholics with no

family values. Well, well, kind of. But

the thing is, 82% of Americans want this

paid maternity leave, so why don't we

have it? Well, like I said earlier, it's

a lot more beneficial for companies to

pay for egg freezing than keep Sophia at

her job. Well, and also a big part of it

is lobbying because the formula milk

industry has spent millions lobbying

against paid maternity leave. And why

they lobby against it is because paid

leave makes breastfeeding possible, and

breastfeeding cuts into their $55

billion global business. So, now you can

start seeing the systems. But anyways,

Sophia goes back to work and now child

care starts, which on average will cost

$18,000 a year. But that amount is just

what shows up on the bill. Because what

doesn't show up is what Sophia loses by

going back. And I know what some of you

guys are thinking, this gender pay gap

that's been debated to death. And it's

fair because it's been largely debunked

when you control for hours worked to job

type and experience, but there's one

place where it absolutely shows up and

it's motherhood. Columbia University

found that working women see their

incomes cut in half after having

children. And it's because the second

you become a mom, you're the one that's

expected to leave early, miss work when

the child is sick, pass on the

promotion, and employers price that in.

Whereas for dads, not only is there no

penalty, but fathers actually earn a lot

more after having kids. In fact, as much

as 25% more than men without children.

So, to the 85% of my audience that are

men, this is literally the one

money-making cheat code y'all aren't

using because your boss will think that

you're more responsible and give you a

raise. So, the gender pay gap can be

debated, but what can't be debated is

the parenthood penalty. But just like

that, that's $127,000

in year one alone. And all that money

goes to every single person in that

chain. From the company that froze

Sophia's eggs, the hospitals that pushed

the C-section, the formula lobby that

killed her paid leave, and every one of

them has a vested interest in keeping

this going as you saw in the process of

making LaMarcus Desandro Kimura. But

that's just what it costs us because

what I haven't shown you yet is what

it's costing the country. Because we can

talk about how they extract the money

and who's profiting, but what nobody's

talking about is how it's reshaping the

country. And if something doesn't

change, the math is about to get a lot

worse than $127,000.

So, I think the first thing to address

here is something you might be thinking.

Well, don't poor families actually have

more kids? And on the surface, yeah.

Women below the poverty line do tend to

have the highest birth rate in the

country right now. But having a kid and

being able to give that kid a shot are

two very different things. While wealthy

families are screening embryos, picking

their hospitals, and giving them weird

ass names, the communities where

everyone else is having kids are falling

apart and not in the way that you'd

expect. And the perfect example is

Franklin County in Upstate New York. And

it's not just some ghost town with no

economy or opportunities. In fact,

unemployment is only 3.8%, but young

people keep leaving because there's not

much reason to stay. And the ones who do

aren't having enough kids. So, over the

last few years, population has dropped

10% and the local hospital stopped

delivering babies entirely. And that's

exactly what makes this birth rate

decline so serious because a dying

economy is actually easier to fix than a

dying population. Over the last few

years, Cleveland, Ohio has closed 29

schools. Austin, Texas, where I live and

it's one of the most moved-in cities,

has closed 10. And West Virginia has

even closed down 53. And so, when it's

not just happening in rural towns, but

in major cities, the chain reactions

continue to get bigger. Because when a

school closes, the families leave, and

when the families leave, the businesses

follow, and that's exactly how a

once-thriving town gets abandoned. And

if that gap keeps growing, we're not

looking at two different economies,

we're looking at two completely

different versions of what it means to

be born in the country. And so, even if

you think that none of this applies to

you since you've already had kids or

you're past that stage, this will still

affect you. Because who do you think are

the people that are going to be funding

your retirement? Social Security is

pay-as-you-go, and current workers fund

the 69 million Americans that depend on

this. But what we're projecting by 2034

is that this trust fund is about to run

out, and when it does, every beneficiary

is going to take an immediate 19% cut.

And at that point, immigration becomes

the only thing keeping the population

growing, and honestly, it already is.

And as someone who's been to the border

multiple times to cover it, regardless

of where you stand on the issue, I think

most people can agree that just relying

on immigration as the only solution to a

population crisis isn't sustainable, nor

is it a plan that we voted for. And I

think it's exactly why no administration

has ever really solved it because it's a

lot cheaper to let people come in and

work for less than to actually invest in

making parenthood affordable. If you

want to see what happens to a country

when they refuse to do either, look at

Japan. They didn't make it easier for

young people to have kids, and they

barely let anyone in, and GDP growth has

now stalled for the last 30 years. So,

whether you want or hate kids, as

Americans, we care about the economy.

And right now, the two paths are making

parenthood affordable or depending on

immigration, and right now, I don't

think neither one is being solved. But

with all that said, the good news is

that we've actually fixed this before.

During the Great Depression, birth rates

dropped to 2.2, which was an all-time

low at that time. But after the

depression, the government invested back

into the country with jobs and housing

and wages, and the GI Bill alone gave 8

million veterans free college and zero

down home loans. And surprise, surprise,

birth rates exploded. I mean, where do

you think the 76 million baby boomers we

love to hate today came from? And yeah,

fair point because back then, kids was

more like a necessity and not a choice

like it is today. But when Americans

today say that they still want two to

three kids even though the reality is

1.6, what's clear to me is that the

desire has never left. But whether a

solution like this is realistic today is

a different question. Because again,

this isn't a right or left question when

no administration has ever done it.

Obama didn't pass paid leave, Biden's

child care plan died in Congress. And

right now, the current government is

proposing to offer a $5,000 baby bonus,

but is that going to do anything to a

potential $127,000

bill? And again, I hate just sounding

like a doomer, but it might be too late.

Because as of 2025, not a single

advanced economy on Earth has dropped

below replacement levels and have been

able to bring it back up. So, when the

economy stays broken and more people

delay, and that market has grown into a

multi-billion dollar industry that has

zero incentive to make parenthood

affordable, no matter what they campaign

on, the loop keeps turning. And no one

who profits from that actually ever

wants this to change. So, now the most

important question becomes, what happens

if you do want kids? And I'll start by

telling you where I'm at. One thing that

happened recently besides turning 29 is

that I'm literally an uncle now. My

sister just had her first kid, and in a

few days, I'm about to meet my niece for

the first time. But just talking and

seeing how happy my sister is, I don't

know, man, but it does really make you

think that this might be the whole point

in this life. And in May, I'm moving to

Brazil to finally live with Sophia. For

those who didn't know, I've been doing 3

years of long distance, and we're

finally going to be in the same place.

It's not like we're planning on popping

out kids tomorrow, but one thing's for

certain, I refuse to let a system that

was built to profit off that decision

make it for me. Because if politicians

really wanted to fix declining birth

rates, they could. Just like they'll

magically find the money whenever it's

time to go to war. Because if you ever

wondered why an issue from the national

debt to immigration or birth rates

immediately gets dealt with or continues

to get worse, it's because the money and

power behind it has a vested interest to

keep whatever status quo going. So, the

message to those who want kids or on the

fence, there's a whole wave of people

out there trying to convince you that

having kids is selfish. But I'd love for

them to explain how wanting to start a

family is selfish when the system that

made it cost $127,000

is the one that nobody's calling out.

So, I'm genuinely curious to hear in the

comments whether you want kids or not,

but I'll be diving even deeper on this

topic in my free weekly newsletter next

week in the video description. But, if

you'd rather learn more about some of

the economic factors causing all of

this, you'll want to watch this video

next on the K-shaped economy.