Why the AI Electricity Bubble is About To Be Like Housing
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So, you know all those AI data centers
popping up everywhere that need insane
amounts of power? Well, a lot of them
may never actually get built, but it
doesn't matter because you're already
paying for them. And the fee that
they're driving up is one you've never
noticed, set by an auction you've never
heard of. And oh, it's run by a
mysterious organization that controls
what 67 million people pay every month.
But that's only half of it. Because the
company whose name is actually on your
bill, the one you can't leave even if
you wanted to, they don't make money by
selling you electricity. The real
business model is building things like
power lines and charging you. And what's
happening with data centers just gave
them the biggest excuse to build in the
history of the American power grid. And
there's one deal right now that's about
to become the template for how this
happens across the entire country. And
the whole thing is starting to follow
the same playbook as housing before
2008. But here's the part that no one's
talking about. Even if AI turns out to
be completely overhyped and the whole
bubble pops tomorrow, none of it goes
away because you obviously can't unbuild
a gas plant and the grid that they're
all connecting to is already starting to
break. But what will go away is
something even more important.
So, after looking into why my
electricity bill keeps going up, I found
two schools of thought. Some say it's
because AI data centers uses too much
power, and some say it's simple supply
and demand. And that's not entirely
wrong. But that's not exactly how the
cost reaches you. Because what I found
is more specific and way worse in a
deeper reason into why nobody who can
fix it wants to. And it all starts with
the wild way your electricity is being
priced in the first place. Not many
people know this, but part of your
electricity bill isn't paying for power
you actually use. About 10 to 15% of
your bill is basically a reservation fee
like at a restaurant where they charge
you just for booking a table, which I
hate by the way. But instead of
reserving a table, you're reserving
electricity so there's enough for
everyone when they need it. So just
think about it like this. Like let's say
you're throwing this giant party on a
Friday night and a 100 people RSVP to
your dinner, but nobody really actually
likes you. So only 40 people actually
shows up. You're still going to have to
pay for the 100 people. And that's
exactly how your electricity bill works.
You're not just paying for what gets
used, but what might get used. And the
price of this reservation is set by this
organization called PJM Interconnection.
And most people have never really heard
of them, but they run the power grid
across 13 states. So if you live in
Virginia or Ohio, they're deciding a
pretty big chunk of what you and 67
million people pay every month for
electricity. And how they decide it is
by running an auction every year, where
the companies that own power plants bid
on how much they want to be paid by PJM.
I know it sounds weird, but how it works
is PJM picks the cheapest bids first
until they have enough power to meet
whatever demand that's forecasted. So,
the idea is that through competition,
companies are incentivized to bid low to
get picked instead of just throwing out
wild numbers like $420,69.
But here's the catch. Once you're in, it
doesn't matter what you bid because
every power plant company that won the
auction gets paid whatever the most
expensive bid was to get in. And that
price gets baked right into your
electricity bill. And for years, the
system just worked. And none of this
really mattered to you because the
electricity bill stayed relatively the
same until AI data center showed up. And
now I get to make this video because the
price exploded to a point that none of
you can ignore. And the most obvious is
in Virginia has the highest
concentration of data centers where they
even have this thing called the data
center alley. And just in a span of two
years, the AI boom has tripled
Virginia's forecasted energy demand
forecasted because ever since data
centers came in the picture, that
auction price has literally went from
$29 to $270. And the most recent one in
December of 2025, it hit $333. and it
would have gone a lot higher, but that
was the legal maximum. And so, we can
throw all these numbers around, but how
that roughly shows up on your
electricity bill is roughly $140 per
household in extra cost. And again, this
is purely because of forecasted
electricity demand for data centers. And
the reason why I keep stressing that
distinction is because it matters.
Because the fact that it's forecasted is
where it makes it a lot lot worse.
Because when a company like Meta or
Microsoft just wants to build a data
center, they don't just pick one
location, right? They're applying for
grid connections in multiple states at
the same time because just like you and
I would compare prices from different
sellers on Amazon, they want to get the
cheapest power and deal. But the problem
here is I don't think you understand the
scale that they're doing this at.
Already utilities across the country
have received connection requests
totaling 700 gawatt. So to put that in
perspective, the entire United States
uses 477. But that's not even the part
that should get you pissed because
remember when these data center
developers apply to a bunch of potential
locations before they commit to one,
what I found is that sometimes they're
not even committing to any. But the
thing that I found about these
applications is that they just sit in
the queue and never get cancelled. And
why that's important is to remember PJM
sets the auction price based on how much
electricity demand is in the forecast.
So all those ghost applications that
were never cancelled are inflating the
forecast which is also inflating the
auction price to keep going up. So what
this all means is that ghost data
centers that may never exist are
literally raising your electricity bill
right now. When what happened in Ohio
proves what I'm talking about. Ohio had
become one of the biggest hotspots for
AI data center applications in the
country and companies were claiming that
there was so much demand that it was
enough to power about 24 million homes.
But the thing is Ohio regulator called
out their bluff. They told the
developers if you actually want this
power you have to pay 85% up front and
if you cancel you're going to pay an
exit fee. What what do you think
happened? Once they had to pay real
money down more than half the requests
disappeared overnight. So, what this
shows is that everybody knows that these
numbers are inflated. The power
companies know, so do the regulators,
but it doesn't matter because you're
still paying based on these inflated
forecasted numbers. So, then that brings
up a question of if everybody knows, why
isn't anyone fixing this? Well,
remember, every power plant that wins
the auction gets paid the same price.
So, when inflated forecasts push that
price up, big power plant companies like
Constellation Energy make $2.2 billion
from a single auction. But when Trump
announced a plan to run an emergency
auction that would force data centers to
actually start paying for their own
power,
>> you're under this new agreement. Big
tech companies are committing to fully
cover the cost of increased electricity
production required for AI data centers.
>> Constellation stock dropped 9.7% within
a few hours. So what I'm trying to spell
out here is that just like we saw with
Ohio, if data centers have to pay, the
forecast come down. And if the forecasts
come down, the auction price comes down.
So, it's pretty damn simple why nobody's
fixing it. And it's because the broken
system is the business model. And now
the only reason it's not worse is
because Pennsylvania's governor sued PJM
and forced that $333 temporary cap on
the auction price. But the thing is that
cap just expired and the next auction is
in a few months in June 2026 and there's
no cap in place. Okay? Okay. So, what's
pretty clear is that this isn't just
supply and demand like you can explain
with rising houses. In fact, I say what
AI data centers are doing to your
electricity is something a lot more of a
hidden playbook like housing in 2008.
I'll get to that, but what I just
explained with the auction is only half
of it. There's a second pipeline that's
making this even worse. The thing about
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your child's email address. So now back
to the video because the auction was one
pipeline, but the second one is the
company whose name is actually on your
bill. And once you understand how they
make money, everything that's happening
with data centers and your electricity
starts looking a little bit like 2008.
So I think most of you probably know
that electric utilities in most of
America are monopolies. But what most
people don't know is how your utility
actually makes money. Most people assume
it's by selling you electricity, which
obviously makes sense, but how they
actually make money is by building
things like new power lines and
transmissions. Because what you don't
know is that utility companies can
charge you for the cost of building
things plus a guaranteed profit on top.
So, it doesn't matter whether the
community actually needs it or not. The
incentive for a lot of utility companies
is that the more they build, the more
that they can charge across their
utility customers and the more that they
earn. And you can probably start seeing
why AI data centers literally just gave
utility companies the biggest excuse in
the history of the American power grid.
And one company shows you exactly what
that deal looks like. So there's this
utility in Virginia called Dominion
Energy. And if you've never heard of
them, they run more data centers out of
their territory than any utility on the
planet. And Dominion told regulators
that they need $7.6 billion to build new
transmissions lines for all the data
centers that moved into their territory.
And when regulators asked like who the
hell is going to pay for all of this,
one of Dominion's own witnesses blew the
whistle that regular customers like you
would be paying for more than half of
it, including the transmission lines
that only serve data centers. So the
easiest way to understand how insane
that is is to think about your apartment
building. Like imagine a new tenant
moves in next door and he needs like the
whole electrical system rewired just for
his unit. But instead of the apartment
building billing just that tenant, your
landlord splits the cost across
everyone's rent. That's exactly what
Dominion is doing. So now to Virginia's
credit, they actually have tried to fix
this. Regulators are forcing Dominion to
create a whole new rate class just for
these data centers with 14-year
contracts, which is fair. And they even
stripped away $350 million in charges
that Dominion was trying to sneak onto
rateayers. So that sounds like a pretty
big win in regulation, right? Well, the
data center lobby's own attorney
probably said the quiet part out loud
that Dominion's real motive was in to
quote to vigorously protect that
opportunity by shifting as much risk as
possible from its shareholders onto its
highload customers. So by deciphering
the lawyer talk the real motive wasn't
to protect you but to lock these data
centers into 14 years of guaranteed
revenue. But even after all that
regulation, analysis is showing that
rateayers will still cover 61% of
upgrade costs once those 14-year
contracts expire. So, at the end of the
day, the long-term risk and costs are
still going to land on you. And what's
crazy, this is just one of the only
deals that you can actually see because
most of these deals, you'll never even
know that they happened. Harvard Law
looked into nearly 50 of these deals and
proceedings and found that contracts are
almost always confidential. It was only
in Wisconsin that even though state
filings blacked out the name of the tech
company on a transmission project, the
federal filing for the exact same
project revealed that it was a project
with Microsoft. So, if you're wondering
if the utility that dominates your area
is doing the same thing, yeah, probably
considering every utility in America
runs on the same model. Utilities
nationwide have already requested $ 31
billion in rate hikes, which matches
what they spent in the entire last
decade. And yes, much of that is being
driven by data center infrastructure
investment. So, what worries me is that
like I mentioned earlier, the auction
added $140 in extra cost per household,
but the utility buildout hasn't even
started billing you for what's to come
in the next few years. And everything
I've shown you so far is when regulators
were at least asking questions and
pushing back. But now the question
becomes, what happens when they stop
asking questions entirely? Well, there's
one deal that's happening right now that
nobody's watching that's about to take
everything a step further. And if
something doesn't change, it may start
looking like 2008 for everyone involved.
It all starts in Holly Ridge, Louisiana
with a population of 2,000 and where a
quarter of residents live below the
poverty line. And just recently, Meta
picked it as the site for the largest AI
data center in the world that will need
three times what the entire city of New
Orleans uses in power every year. So to
power something like that, you're going
to need new power plants. And in this
case, three of them that will cost $3.2
billion total. So now, normally when a
project like this does come along, the
utility has to put it out to a bid. It's
the same idea as getting quotes from a
few contractors before you renovate your
house, compare prices, and the best
deals. But their utility that runs
Louisiana's power grid is a company
called Intery. And if you've been paying
attention, they're a utility company
like Dominion. And just like, okay, I
think it's called Intery. The more they
build, the more they earn. So Intery
looked at this $3.2 $.2 billion project
and skip the entire bidding process
entirely and just hire themselves. And
by doing so, they generated $178 million
in new shareholder profit. And with that
much money on the line, they weren't
going to wait around. The vote to
approve all this was originally
scheduled in October, but was then
pushed up to August. And so, the public
literally just got a week's notice on a
decision that will shape their
electricity bills for decades. Here's a
part that should piss you off. Meta only
signed a 15-year power agreement. But
those power plants Energy is building
last around 30 years. So what this means
is that if everything goes according to
plan, even if Meta stays for the full 15
years, there's still another 15 years
where someone has to pay for power
plants that were built entirely for a
company that's already gone. And in
Louisiana, that someone is you. So you
kind of start seeing how this build
fast, big, and collect fees sounds like
housing pre208, right? Okay, maybe
that's a bit of a stretch, but just like
2008, the danger isn't the construction.
The real danger are the deals that are
underneath it. Because turns out Meta
didn't actually sign this deal with
Meta. They created a shell company
called Ley LLC and signed through that.
Then on the exact same day regulators
approved the gas plant, Meta quietly
registered another company in Delaware
called Bayet Investor. And two months
later, Meta sold 80% of the entire
project to a private equity firm called
Blue Owl Capital through that Bayonet
LLC. And just like that, Meta went from
owner to tenant. So, think about what
that means. Again, with the analogies,
if you own a house and the roof caves
in, that's your problem. But if you're
renting, you just don't renew the lease.
That's exactly what Meta did, except the
house is a $27 billion data center, and
the landlord who gets stuck with it is
you. Because remember how I said that
Meta signed a 15-year lease? Well, after
the restructuring, Meta's lease actually
now renews every four years. So,
theoretically, it can walk away in four
while those power plants that are being
built sit for 30. And most importantly,
no matter what they decide, a $550
million transmission line connecting
those power plants to Meta's facility is
already on rateayers bills. So, if we're
going to keep going with this 2008
comparison, this is the part where the
government made it easier to do it again
and again. After the Meta Deal,
Louisiana only moved faster. The state
passed something called a lining
amendment. And the easiest way to think
about it is this. Everything that went
wrong with the metad deal, like the skip
bidding, the rush timeline, the cost on
rateayers. Louisiana looked at literally
all that and literally said, "Let's make
this a template." Just like that, Energy
already has new data center proposals
across four states like Arkansas and
even Texas where I live. And if
approved, this would add the electricity
demand of 10 New Orleans to the grid and
way faster, too. But remember, the
United States power grid can barely
handle what's already here. In fact,
PJM's last auction fell short of its own
reliability targets. And if nothing
changes, parts of the country could fall
below safety standards by June 2027. And
with the speed and rate of development
that's behind the biggest bet in human
history, at this point, the real stakes
now isn't just talking about higher
bills. We're literally talking about
potential blackout.
So, just so I'm abundantly clear, no,
I'm not directly comparing your
electricity bill to a global financial
collapse. But the point is this playbook
is awfully similar. Insiders structure
deals so they can walk away. Regulators
make it easier instead of harder. And
nobody sees it coming until it's too
late. And guess who's going to pay that
price? So, now that you know all this,
the question becomes whether knowing it
changes anything. Right now, 4 million
households had their power shut off last
year. And with 21 million households
falling behind on their payments, it's
going to become a lot more. The thing
is, people are starting to figure it
out. Over 300 bills targeting data
center regulation has been filed across
30 states, and nearly 98 billion in
projects are being blocked by local
communities. But what's also clear is
that for every win, the system also
pushes harder. California tried to force
data centers to pay their fair share and
big tech quickly lobby that down. So if
regulation isn't working to 100% and the
push back does get crushed most of the
times, you think the only way out for
what's happening is for the AI bubble to
pop, right? And there's actually a
really popular video by Hank Green
arguing exactly that, that if AI
collapses with the supply and demand,
electricity prices are going to come
back down. And look, I like Hank. He's a
very smart guy. But that argument treats
this like this really is a supply and
demand problem
>> because demand for electricity is going
to come up, but supply is being
intentionally artificially constrained.
>> And if you made it to this point, you
should understand that it's not. Because
that's actually the real lesson about
how all this stuff works. Not just with
electricity and AI data centers, but
with everything. Because in a world of
money and power, supply and demand is
never the full story. When insiders can
structure deals to walk away in four
years. When utilities profit from every
dollar that they spend regardless of
whether anyone needs what they're
building. When lobbyists can gut a
regulation before it's even written. And
our Congress people can trade stocks.
The real game can never be explained by
a simple supply and demand graph. That's
for the permanent underclass. And the
thing is the people who build these
systems understand this very well. And I
think the only way to not be on the
wrong end of it is to understand it too.
So, if you're anything like the special
3,000 of you who are already learning
how money and power works, I'll be going
even deeper into this issue next week on
my free newsletter in the video
description. But if you want to watch
how all this relates to what's happening
with the overall AI bubble, go and watch
our video on why everyone wants you to
believe AI is a bubble.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video explains how the rapid growth of AI data centers is driving up electricity costs for everyday consumers through a combination of obscure auction mechanisms and utility business models. The system allows utility companies to pass the costs of new infrastructure—intended for data centers—onto regular ratepayers. Furthermore, the video argues that the process mirrors the risks of the 2008 housing crisis, where developers and utilities structure deals that shift financial risk away from themselves and onto the public, while "ghost" demand forecasts inflate prices even for projects that may never materialize.
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