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Why the AI Electricity Bubble is About To Be Like Housing

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Why the AI Electricity Bubble is About To Be Like Housing

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561 segments

0:00

So, you know all those AI data centers

0:01

popping up everywhere that need insane

0:04

amounts of power? Well, a lot of them

0:06

may never actually get built, but it

0:08

doesn't matter because you're already

0:10

paying for them. And the fee that

0:11

they're driving up is one you've never

0:13

noticed, set by an auction you've never

0:15

heard of. And oh, it's run by a

0:17

mysterious organization that controls

0:19

what 67 million people pay every month.

0:22

But that's only half of it. Because the

0:24

company whose name is actually on your

0:26

bill, the one you can't leave even if

0:28

you wanted to, they don't make money by

0:30

selling you electricity. The real

0:32

business model is building things like

0:34

power lines and charging you. And what's

0:36

happening with data centers just gave

0:38

them the biggest excuse to build in the

0:40

history of the American power grid. And

0:42

there's one deal right now that's about

0:44

to become the template for how this

0:46

happens across the entire country. And

0:48

the whole thing is starting to follow

0:49

the same playbook as housing before

0:53

2008. But here's the part that no one's

0:55

talking about. Even if AI turns out to

0:57

be completely overhyped and the whole

0:59

bubble pops tomorrow, none of it goes

1:02

away because you obviously can't unbuild

1:04

a gas plant and the grid that they're

1:05

all connecting to is already starting to

1:08

break. But what will go away is

1:10

something even more important.

1:19

So, after looking into why my

1:20

electricity bill keeps going up, I found

1:22

two schools of thought. Some say it's

1:24

because AI data centers uses too much

1:27

power, and some say it's simple supply

1:28

and demand. And that's not entirely

1:30

wrong. But that's not exactly how the

1:32

cost reaches you. Because what I found

1:34

is more specific and way worse in a

1:38

deeper reason into why nobody who can

1:40

fix it wants to. And it all starts with

1:43

the wild way your electricity is being

1:45

priced in the first place. Not many

1:47

people know this, but part of your

1:49

electricity bill isn't paying for power

1:51

you actually use. About 10 to 15% of

1:53

your bill is basically a reservation fee

1:55

like at a restaurant where they charge

1:57

you just for booking a table, which I

2:00

hate by the way. But instead of

2:01

reserving a table, you're reserving

2:03

electricity so there's enough for

2:04

everyone when they need it. So just

2:06

think about it like this. Like let's say

2:08

you're throwing this giant party on a

2:09

Friday night and a 100 people RSVP to

2:12

your dinner, but nobody really actually

2:14

likes you. So only 40 people actually

2:17

shows up. You're still going to have to

2:18

pay for the 100 people. And that's

2:20

exactly how your electricity bill works.

2:22

You're not just paying for what gets

2:24

used, but what might get used. And the

2:27

price of this reservation is set by this

2:29

organization called PJM Interconnection.

2:32

And most people have never really heard

2:34

of them, but they run the power grid

2:36

across 13 states. So if you live in

2:38

Virginia or Ohio, they're deciding a

2:41

pretty big chunk of what you and 67

2:43

million people pay every month for

2:44

electricity. And how they decide it is

2:47

by running an auction every year, where

2:49

the companies that own power plants bid

2:51

on how much they want to be paid by PJM.

2:56

I know it sounds weird, but how it works

2:58

is PJM picks the cheapest bids first

3:02

until they have enough power to meet

3:04

whatever demand that's forecasted. So,

3:06

the idea is that through competition,

3:09

companies are incentivized to bid low to

3:11

get picked instead of just throwing out

3:13

wild numbers like $420,69.

3:17

But here's the catch. Once you're in, it

3:19

doesn't matter what you bid because

3:21

every power plant company that won the

3:23

auction gets paid whatever the most

3:26

expensive bid was to get in. And that

3:29

price gets baked right into your

3:31

electricity bill. And for years, the

3:32

system just worked. And none of this

3:35

really mattered to you because the

3:36

electricity bill stayed relatively the

3:39

same until AI data center showed up. And

3:42

now I get to make this video because the

3:44

price exploded to a point that none of

3:46

you can ignore. And the most obvious is

3:48

in Virginia has the highest

3:50

concentration of data centers where they

3:51

even have this thing called the data

3:53

center alley. And just in a span of two

3:55

years, the AI boom has tripled

3:57

Virginia's forecasted energy demand

4:00

forecasted because ever since data

4:02

centers came in the picture, that

4:04

auction price has literally went from

4:06

$29 to $270. And the most recent one in

4:09

December of 2025, it hit $333. and it

4:13

would have gone a lot higher, but that

4:15

was the legal maximum. And so, we can

4:18

throw all these numbers around, but how

4:20

that roughly shows up on your

4:22

electricity bill is roughly $140 per

4:25

household in extra cost. And again, this

4:28

is purely because of forecasted

4:30

electricity demand for data centers. And

4:33

the reason why I keep stressing that

4:34

distinction is because it matters.

4:36

Because the fact that it's forecasted is

4:38

where it makes it a lot lot worse.

4:40

Because when a company like Meta or

4:42

Microsoft just wants to build a data

4:44

center, they don't just pick one

4:46

location, right? They're applying for

4:47

grid connections in multiple states at

4:49

the same time because just like you and

4:51

I would compare prices from different

4:53

sellers on Amazon, they want to get the

4:55

cheapest power and deal. But the problem

4:57

here is I don't think you understand the

4:59

scale that they're doing this at.

5:00

Already utilities across the country

5:02

have received connection requests

5:04

totaling 700 gawatt. So to put that in

5:06

perspective, the entire United States

5:09

uses 477. But that's not even the part

5:12

that should get you pissed because

5:13

remember when these data center

5:14

developers apply to a bunch of potential

5:16

locations before they commit to one,

5:18

what I found is that sometimes they're

5:20

not even committing to any. But the

5:22

thing that I found about these

5:23

applications is that they just sit in

5:25

the queue and never get cancelled. And

5:27

why that's important is to remember PJM

5:30

sets the auction price based on how much

5:32

electricity demand is in the forecast.

5:35

So all those ghost applications that

5:37

were never cancelled are inflating the

5:40

forecast which is also inflating the

5:43

auction price to keep going up. So what

5:45

this all means is that ghost data

5:47

centers that may never exist are

5:49

literally raising your electricity bill

5:52

right now. When what happened in Ohio

5:54

proves what I'm talking about. Ohio had

5:56

become one of the biggest hotspots for

5:58

AI data center applications in the

6:00

country and companies were claiming that

6:01

there was so much demand that it was

6:03

enough to power about 24 million homes.

6:06

But the thing is Ohio regulator called

6:08

out their bluff. They told the

6:10

developers if you actually want this

6:12

power you have to pay 85% up front and

6:14

if you cancel you're going to pay an

6:16

exit fee. What what do you think

6:18

happened? Once they had to pay real

6:20

money down more than half the requests

6:23

disappeared overnight. So, what this

6:25

shows is that everybody knows that these

6:27

numbers are inflated. The power

6:29

companies know, so do the regulators,

6:31

but it doesn't matter because you're

6:32

still paying based on these inflated

6:35

forecasted numbers. So, then that brings

6:37

up a question of if everybody knows, why

6:39

isn't anyone fixing this? Well,

6:41

remember, every power plant that wins

6:43

the auction gets paid the same price.

6:44

So, when inflated forecasts push that

6:46

price up, big power plant companies like

6:49

Constellation Energy make $2.2 billion

6:52

from a single auction. But when Trump

6:54

announced a plan to run an emergency

6:56

auction that would force data centers to

6:58

actually start paying for their own

7:00

power,

7:00

>> you're under this new agreement. Big

7:02

tech companies are committing to fully

7:04

cover the cost of increased electricity

7:06

production required for AI data centers.

7:09

>> Constellation stock dropped 9.7% within

7:12

a few hours. So what I'm trying to spell

7:14

out here is that just like we saw with

7:15

Ohio, if data centers have to pay, the

7:18

forecast come down. And if the forecasts

7:20

come down, the auction price comes down.

7:23

So, it's pretty damn simple why nobody's

7:25

fixing it. And it's because the broken

7:28

system is the business model. And now

7:31

the only reason it's not worse is

7:33

because Pennsylvania's governor sued PJM

7:36

and forced that $333 temporary cap on

7:39

the auction price. But the thing is that

7:41

cap just expired and the next auction is

7:44

in a few months in June 2026 and there's

7:48

no cap in place. Okay? Okay. So, what's

7:50

pretty clear is that this isn't just

7:51

supply and demand like you can explain

7:53

with rising houses. In fact, I say what

7:56

AI data centers are doing to your

7:57

electricity is something a lot more of a

8:00

hidden playbook like housing in 2008.

8:03

I'll get to that, but what I just

8:04

explained with the auction is only half

8:06

of it. There's a second pipeline that's

8:08

making this even worse. The thing about

8:10

systems like this is that they're

8:12

designed so you never really look

8:13

closely to what's actually happening.

8:15

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your child's email address. So now back

9:05

to the video because the auction was one

9:07

pipeline, but the second one is the

9:09

company whose name is actually on your

9:11

bill. And once you understand how they

9:12

make money, everything that's happening

9:14

with data centers and your electricity

9:16

starts looking a little bit like 2008.

9:24

So I think most of you probably know

9:25

that electric utilities in most of

9:27

America are monopolies. But what most

9:29

people don't know is how your utility

9:31

actually makes money. Most people assume

9:33

it's by selling you electricity, which

9:36

obviously makes sense, but how they

9:38

actually make money is by building

9:40

things like new power lines and

9:41

transmissions. Because what you don't

9:43

know is that utility companies can

9:45

charge you for the cost of building

9:47

things plus a guaranteed profit on top.

9:50

So, it doesn't matter whether the

9:51

community actually needs it or not. The

9:53

incentive for a lot of utility companies

9:54

is that the more they build, the more

9:56

that they can charge across their

9:58

utility customers and the more that they

10:00

earn. And you can probably start seeing

10:02

why AI data centers literally just gave

10:05

utility companies the biggest excuse in

10:07

the history of the American power grid.

10:09

And one company shows you exactly what

10:11

that deal looks like. So there's this

10:12

utility in Virginia called Dominion

10:14

Energy. And if you've never heard of

10:15

them, they run more data centers out of

10:17

their territory than any utility on the

10:20

planet. And Dominion told regulators

10:21

that they need $7.6 billion to build new

10:24

transmissions lines for all the data

10:26

centers that moved into their territory.

10:28

And when regulators asked like who the

10:29

hell is going to pay for all of this,

10:31

one of Dominion's own witnesses blew the

10:33

whistle that regular customers like you

10:36

would be paying for more than half of

10:38

it, including the transmission lines

10:40

that only serve data centers. So the

10:42

easiest way to understand how insane

10:44

that is is to think about your apartment

10:46

building. Like imagine a new tenant

10:48

moves in next door and he needs like the

10:50

whole electrical system rewired just for

10:52

his unit. But instead of the apartment

10:54

building billing just that tenant, your

10:56

landlord splits the cost across

10:58

everyone's rent. That's exactly what

11:01

Dominion is doing. So now to Virginia's

11:04

credit, they actually have tried to fix

11:05

this. Regulators are forcing Dominion to

11:08

create a whole new rate class just for

11:10

these data centers with 14-year

11:11

contracts, which is fair. And they even

11:13

stripped away $350 million in charges

11:16

that Dominion was trying to sneak onto

11:18

rateayers. So that sounds like a pretty

11:19

big win in regulation, right? Well, the

11:22

data center lobby's own attorney

11:24

probably said the quiet part out loud

11:26

that Dominion's real motive was in to

11:28

quote to vigorously protect that

11:30

opportunity by shifting as much risk as

11:33

possible from its shareholders onto its

11:35

highload customers. So by deciphering

11:37

the lawyer talk the real motive wasn't

11:39

to protect you but to lock these data

11:41

centers into 14 years of guaranteed

11:44

revenue. But even after all that

11:45

regulation, analysis is showing that

11:47

rateayers will still cover 61% of

11:50

upgrade costs once those 14-year

11:53

contracts expire. So, at the end of the

11:55

day, the long-term risk and costs are

11:57

still going to land on you. And what's

12:00

crazy, this is just one of the only

12:02

deals that you can actually see because

12:04

most of these deals, you'll never even

12:06

know that they happened. Harvard Law

12:08

looked into nearly 50 of these deals and

12:11

proceedings and found that contracts are

12:13

almost always confidential. It was only

12:15

in Wisconsin that even though state

12:17

filings blacked out the name of the tech

12:18

company on a transmission project, the

12:20

federal filing for the exact same

12:22

project revealed that it was a project

12:24

with Microsoft. So, if you're wondering

12:26

if the utility that dominates your area

12:28

is doing the same thing, yeah, probably

12:31

considering every utility in America

12:33

runs on the same model. Utilities

12:35

nationwide have already requested $ 31

12:37

billion in rate hikes, which matches

12:40

what they spent in the entire last

12:42

decade. And yes, much of that is being

12:44

driven by data center infrastructure

12:47

investment. So, what worries me is that

12:49

like I mentioned earlier, the auction

12:51

added $140 in extra cost per household,

12:54

but the utility buildout hasn't even

12:56

started billing you for what's to come

12:58

in the next few years. And everything

13:00

I've shown you so far is when regulators

13:03

were at least asking questions and

13:05

pushing back. But now the question

13:06

becomes, what happens when they stop

13:09

asking questions entirely? Well, there's

13:12

one deal that's happening right now that

13:13

nobody's watching that's about to take

13:16

everything a step further. And if

13:17

something doesn't change, it may start

13:19

looking like 2008 for everyone involved.

13:26

It all starts in Holly Ridge, Louisiana

13:28

with a population of 2,000 and where a

13:31

quarter of residents live below the

13:32

poverty line. And just recently, Meta

13:34

picked it as the site for the largest AI

13:37

data center in the world that will need

13:39

three times what the entire city of New

13:42

Orleans uses in power every year. So to

13:45

power something like that, you're going

13:47

to need new power plants. And in this

13:49

case, three of them that will cost $3.2

13:51

billion total. So now, normally when a

13:54

project like this does come along, the

13:55

utility has to put it out to a bid. It's

13:58

the same idea as getting quotes from a

14:00

few contractors before you renovate your

14:02

house, compare prices, and the best

14:03

deals. But their utility that runs

14:05

Louisiana's power grid is a company

14:07

called Intery. And if you've been paying

14:09

attention, they're a utility company

14:12

like Dominion. And just like, okay, I

14:13

think it's called Intery. The more they

14:16

build, the more they earn. So Intery

14:18

looked at this $3.2 $.2 billion project

14:21

and skip the entire bidding process

14:23

entirely and just hire themselves. And

14:26

by doing so, they generated $178 million

14:29

in new shareholder profit. And with that

14:31

much money on the line, they weren't

14:33

going to wait around. The vote to

14:34

approve all this was originally

14:36

scheduled in October, but was then

14:37

pushed up to August. And so, the public

14:39

literally just got a week's notice on a

14:41

decision that will shape their

14:42

electricity bills for decades. Here's a

14:44

part that should piss you off. Meta only

14:46

signed a 15-year power agreement. But

14:48

those power plants Energy is building

14:50

last around 30 years. So what this means

14:53

is that if everything goes according to

14:54

plan, even if Meta stays for the full 15

14:57

years, there's still another 15 years

14:59

where someone has to pay for power

15:01

plants that were built entirely for a

15:04

company that's already gone. And in

15:05

Louisiana, that someone is you. So you

15:08

kind of start seeing how this build

15:09

fast, big, and collect fees sounds like

15:12

housing pre208, right? Okay, maybe

15:15

that's a bit of a stretch, but just like

15:17

2008, the danger isn't the construction.

15:20

The real danger are the deals that are

15:22

underneath it. Because turns out Meta

15:24

didn't actually sign this deal with

15:26

Meta. They created a shell company

15:28

called Ley LLC and signed through that.

15:31

Then on the exact same day regulators

15:33

approved the gas plant, Meta quietly

15:35

registered another company in Delaware

15:37

called Bayet Investor. And two months

15:39

later, Meta sold 80% of the entire

15:41

project to a private equity firm called

15:43

Blue Owl Capital through that Bayonet

15:46

LLC. And just like that, Meta went from

15:49

owner to tenant. So, think about what

15:52

that means. Again, with the analogies,

15:53

if you own a house and the roof caves

15:55

in, that's your problem. But if you're

15:57

renting, you just don't renew the lease.

16:00

That's exactly what Meta did, except the

16:02

house is a $27 billion data center, and

16:05

the landlord who gets stuck with it is

16:07

you. Because remember how I said that

16:08

Meta signed a 15-year lease? Well, after

16:11

the restructuring, Meta's lease actually

16:13

now renews every four years. So,

16:16

theoretically, it can walk away in four

16:18

while those power plants that are being

16:20

built sit for 30. And most importantly,

16:22

no matter what they decide, a $550

16:25

million transmission line connecting

16:27

those power plants to Meta's facility is

16:30

already on rateayers bills. So, if we're

16:33

going to keep going with this 2008

16:34

comparison, this is the part where the

16:36

government made it easier to do it again

16:39

and again. After the Meta Deal,

16:40

Louisiana only moved faster. The state

16:42

passed something called a lining

16:44

amendment. And the easiest way to think

16:45

about it is this. Everything that went

16:47

wrong with the metad deal, like the skip

16:49

bidding, the rush timeline, the cost on

16:51

rateayers. Louisiana looked at literally

16:53

all that and literally said, "Let's make

16:55

this a template." Just like that, Energy

16:58

already has new data center proposals

17:00

across four states like Arkansas and

17:02

even Texas where I live. And if

17:04

approved, this would add the electricity

17:07

demand of 10 New Orleans to the grid and

17:10

way faster, too. But remember, the

17:13

United States power grid can barely

17:15

handle what's already here. In fact,

17:17

PJM's last auction fell short of its own

17:19

reliability targets. And if nothing

17:22

changes, parts of the country could fall

17:24

below safety standards by June 2027. And

17:27

with the speed and rate of development

17:29

that's behind the biggest bet in human

17:31

history, at this point, the real stakes

17:33

now isn't just talking about higher

17:36

bills. We're literally talking about

17:38

potential blackout.

17:42

So, just so I'm abundantly clear, no,

17:44

I'm not directly comparing your

17:46

electricity bill to a global financial

17:48

collapse. But the point is this playbook

17:51

is awfully similar. Insiders structure

17:54

deals so they can walk away. Regulators

17:56

make it easier instead of harder. And

17:58

nobody sees it coming until it's too

18:01

late. And guess who's going to pay that

18:03

price? So, now that you know all this,

18:05

the question becomes whether knowing it

18:07

changes anything. Right now, 4 million

18:09

households had their power shut off last

18:11

year. And with 21 million households

18:13

falling behind on their payments, it's

18:15

going to become a lot more. The thing

18:16

is, people are starting to figure it

18:18

out. Over 300 bills targeting data

18:20

center regulation has been filed across

18:22

30 states, and nearly 98 billion in

18:25

projects are being blocked by local

18:27

communities. But what's also clear is

18:28

that for every win, the system also

18:31

pushes harder. California tried to force

18:33

data centers to pay their fair share and

18:35

big tech quickly lobby that down. So if

18:38

regulation isn't working to 100% and the

18:41

push back does get crushed most of the

18:43

times, you think the only way out for

18:45

what's happening is for the AI bubble to

18:47

pop, right? And there's actually a

18:50

really popular video by Hank Green

18:52

arguing exactly that, that if AI

18:54

collapses with the supply and demand,

18:57

electricity prices are going to come

18:59

back down. And look, I like Hank. He's a

19:02

very smart guy. But that argument treats

19:04

this like this really is a supply and

19:07

demand problem

19:07

>> because demand for electricity is going

19:09

to come up, but supply is being

19:11

intentionally artificially constrained.

19:13

>> And if you made it to this point, you

19:15

should understand that it's not. Because

19:17

that's actually the real lesson about

19:18

how all this stuff works. Not just with

19:21

electricity and AI data centers, but

19:22

with everything. Because in a world of

19:24

money and power, supply and demand is

19:27

never the full story. When insiders can

19:29

structure deals to walk away in four

19:31

years. When utilities profit from every

19:34

dollar that they spend regardless of

19:35

whether anyone needs what they're

19:36

building. When lobbyists can gut a

19:38

regulation before it's even written. And

19:40

our Congress people can trade stocks.

19:43

The real game can never be explained by

19:45

a simple supply and demand graph. That's

19:47

for the permanent underclass. And the

19:49

thing is the people who build these

19:50

systems understand this very well. And I

19:53

think the only way to not be on the

19:55

wrong end of it is to understand it too.

19:57

So, if you're anything like the special

19:59

3,000 of you who are already learning

20:01

how money and power works, I'll be going

20:03

even deeper into this issue next week on

20:05

my free newsletter in the video

20:07

description. But if you want to watch

20:08

how all this relates to what's happening

20:10

with the overall AI bubble, go and watch

20:13

our video on why everyone wants you to

20:15

believe AI is a bubble.

Interactive Summary

The video explains how the rapid growth of AI data centers is driving up electricity costs for everyday consumers through a combination of obscure auction mechanisms and utility business models. The system allows utility companies to pass the costs of new infrastructure—intended for data centers—onto regular ratepayers. Furthermore, the video argues that the process mirrors the risks of the 2008 housing crisis, where developers and utilities structure deals that shift financial risk away from themselves and onto the public, while "ghost" demand forecasts inflate prices even for projects that may never materialize.

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