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If The Economy Is F*cked, Why Hasn’t It Crashed Yet?

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If The Economy Is F*cked, Why Hasn’t It Crashed Yet?

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600 segments

0:00

Inflation is plummeting. Incomes are

0:02

rising fast.

0:03

>> Every single metric out there is saying

0:05

that the economy is stronger than ever.

0:07

GDP is growing, low unemployment, and

0:09

stocks are at all-time highs.

0:11

>> The roaring economy is roaring like

0:14

never before.

0:18

>> So then, why does it feel like none of

0:20

that is true? Because the stock market

0:22

hasn't been measuring your life for

0:23

almost a hundred years. In fact, what we

0:25

have now are two completely different

0:27

economies running inside the same

0:30

country. Okay, but why should you care?

0:33

Well, because now the same companies,

0:35

the same jobs, and the same industries

0:37

are splitting in half depending on which

0:39

side you're on. And so clearly that

0:41

impacts all of you. So you can't just

0:43

sit this one out because the people who

0:45

built this system made sure you can't

0:47

tear it down without holding you

0:49

hostage. So, I spent weeks uncovering

0:51

their playbook, and I'll break down this

0:52

entire thing in a way that's actually

0:54

easy to understand. And by the end of

0:56

this video, you'll understand why making

0:58

more money won't save you. But I'll tell

1:00

you exactly what will.

1:08

So, everyone's arguing about whether the

1:09

economy is good or bad with these record

1:11

high stock prices, but that's the wrong

1:14

question. Because the stock market was

1:16

never designed to measure whether your

1:17

life is getting better. it measures

1:19

something else entirely. So, let's start

1:21

by breaking it down in a simple way.

1:23

First and foremost, the economy measures

1:25

everything. And I mean everything from

1:27

trade to production. And it's usually

1:29

measured by things like GDP,

1:31

unemployment, inflation, and consumer

1:33

spending. Whereas the stock market

1:35

doesn't really directly measure any of

1:37

that. A better way to look at it,

1:39

especially now, it's where investors

1:41

trade bets on how much money companies

1:44

will make in the future. And so, it's a

1:45

bit of an oversimplification, but that's

1:47

it. And another thing to know is that

1:49

the S&P 500, which is what everyone

1:51

points to when they say that the market

1:52

is up, only tracks about 500 companies

1:55

out of the 30 million business in

1:57

America. So really, it's again talking

2:00

about a very thin slice of the actual

2:02

economy. If you don't believe me, this

2:04

also isn't the first time that the stock

2:05

market is telling a completely different

2:08

story while reality is telling another.

2:10

And every time it's happened before,

2:12

it's ended up the same way. I'm sure a

2:15

lot of you have heard about the roaring

2:16

20s and as the name suggests it was this

2:19

golden era on paper. Between 1922 and

2:22

1929, the Dow had gone up six times in 8

2:25

years and the economy was growing almost

2:27

5% a year while unemployment was only

2:30

under 4%. So it was roaring all right,

2:33

but underneath all of that were some

2:35

cracks on paper. Farmers were actually

2:38

drowning in debt. Factories were

2:40

producing way more product than they

2:42

could sell. And most of the market's

2:44

growth wasn't coming from real

2:46

businesses. It was coming from people

2:49

borrowing money to place bigger and

2:50

bigger bets on stocks going up. Sound

2:54

familiar? Well, in 1929, the stocks did

2:57

stop going up. The Great Depression hit,

2:59

wiping out 80 to 85% of the stock market

3:02

value. And soon enough, production

3:04

collapsed by nearly half and

3:06

unemployment hit 1 in4 Americans,

3:09

leading to the worst economic collapse

3:11

that you all know about. But here's the

3:14

thing that you may not know. Just a few

3:16

years after the crash, the stock market

3:18

started rallying back nearly over 300%

3:21

between 1933 and 1937. So again, on

3:25

paper, it was like America was so back.

3:28

But the thing is that was again just the

3:31

stock market. while many ordinary

3:33

Americans still stood in bread lines and

3:36

recovery wasn't really a reality for

3:39

most. So that was almost 100 years ago

3:41

when it's one of the earliest and

3:43

clearest examples of the stock market

3:45

and the economy telling completely

3:47

different stories. And today the S&P is

3:49

at all-time highs while consumer

3:51

confidence is near pandemic lows. So the

3:54

question becomes why does this keep

3:57

happening? Well, there's a few reasons,

3:59

but one in particular stands out, and it

4:01

starts with what I consider the biggest

4:03

bet in human history. If you watch any

4:05

of my countless videos on AI, you know

4:07

that big tech right now is in the middle

4:09

of the largest spending spree in

4:11

corporate history, from data centers to

4:13

infrastructure. And comparing it to

4:15

previous bubbles, it's now more than

4:17

tripled than what the entire telecom

4:19

industry spent at the peak of the dot

4:21

boom. But with that said, that sounds

4:23

great, right? Especially when the

4:24

economy is factoring in consumer

4:26

spending and investment. So it must mean

4:28

that growth is happening. But if you

4:30

hear the words from Goldman Sachs chief

4:32

economist, he said it and broke it down

4:35

the best. When asked about how much AI

4:37

spending actually boosted the economy in

4:38

2025, his answer was basically zero.

4:42

>> Our estimate AI investment didn't affect

4:45

US GDP growth

4:46

>> because most of the hardware is

4:47

imported. So it doesn't even count

4:49

towards American production. the money

4:51

flows out, the stock prices go up, and

4:53

the GDP number barely moves. So

4:56

remember, the economy isn't growing

4:57

because of AI. The stock market is

4:59

growing because of AI. Like I

5:00

established, those are two very

5:02

different things. But again, that isn't

5:04

even the biggest reason because the real

5:06

engine has been burning since 2008. A

5:09

feedback loop that we gotten so addicted

5:11

to as a country that truly explains why

5:13

the stock market and economy no longer

5:15

matches up. Before 2008, the Fed wasn't

5:18

really pumping too much money into the

5:20

financial system. Roughly around $800

5:22

billion, but that number hasn't really

5:24

changed over the decades. But then when

5:26

the crash happened, the Fed started to

5:28

panic and as a Fed does by controlling

5:30

monetary policy slashinter interest

5:32

rates to near zero and for the first

5:34

time ever started increasingly pumping

5:37

and printing more money where by 2014

5:40

that $800 billion has grown to $4.5

5:43

trillion. And this addiction is called

5:46

quantitative easing. But all you need to

5:48

know is that the Fed was creating money,

5:50

pumping it into financial markets like

5:52

stocks, bonds, and real estate, causing

5:54

stock prices to shoot up. But again,

5:56

those were just assets, not wages or the

6:00

value of the dollar. And just like a Zen

6:02

or a nicotine gum addiction, you say is

6:05

only just once in a while, started

6:07

showing signs of real habit.

6:11

Because a few years later in 2017 when

6:13

they stopped trying to do this

6:14

quantitative easing, well, the market

6:17

started crashing. So, they reversed

6:18

course and brought it back. And once

6:20

that recent pandemic hit, that $4

6:22

trillion now doubled to $9 trillion in 2

6:25

years. And it's exactly why stocks have

6:28

ballooned during this time. And not to

6:30

mention with all that money printed

6:31

meant inflation hitting the highest in

6:33

40 years. But who who cares about that?

6:36

But what's clear is that this loop now

6:38

became an addiction. And every time the

6:39

economy started showing signs of slowing

6:41

down, the dose got bigger and bigger.

6:45

The Fed prints more money. Money flows

6:47

into stocks. The people who own stocks

6:49

feel richer. Let me let me take this

6:51

out. They spend more. That spending

6:53

shows up in GDP. And politicians call it

6:55

a strong economy. And just as we're

6:58

seeing now, it's now something they

6:59

can't even stop. It's a full-blown

7:01

addiction because every time they try to

7:03

pull back, the market drops. And so just

7:05

like a withdrawal, they put it right

7:08

back.

7:10

I was actually going to light this for

7:11

this video, but probably shouldn't

7:12

inside of this apartment, but anyways,

7:14

the stock market has become a wealth

7:16

engine that runs on a completely

7:18

different track. But what's clear is

7:20

that a system like this doesn't just

7:21

sustain itself by accident. And when you

7:24

follow the money to find out who exactly

7:26

benefits from keeping it this way,

7:28

you'll start to see why nothing ever

7:31

changes. And part of understanding how

7:33

money actually works starts with

7:34

understanding your own. But most people

7:36

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statements, and accounts. And that's

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8:24

Money today. So, back to it because I've

8:26

now proven to you how the stock market

8:27

and economy are different. And a big

8:29

reason why is that addictive feedback

8:31

loop that we've gotten addicted to. But

8:34

what I found are three players that are

8:36

now feeding into each other to keep this

8:38

loop running forever.

8:45

So let's start at the top, the CEOs. So

8:48

for most of the 20th century, stock

8:49

buybacks were illegal and for good

8:52

reason. Because if a company uses its

8:54

own money to buy its own stock, the

8:55

price obviously goes up and anyone with

8:58

a brain will think that's textbook

8:59

manipulation. But in 1982, they quietly

9:02

changed that rule. And since then,

9:03

buybacks have become one of the most

9:05

powerful tools in corporate America and

9:08

something that allows the soul and blood

9:09

of America, the stock market, to keep

9:11

going up. So, let me just show you

9:13

exactly what I mean. Between 2019 and

9:15

2024, Lowe's, like the hardware store,

9:18

spent $46.6 billion buying back its own

9:21

stock. And yeah, big number, but that

9:23

works out to roughly $28,000 per

9:26

employee, while the average Lowe's

9:28

worker made around $30,600.

9:31

So if you view it like that, the company

9:33

was literally spending almost as much as

9:34

inflating its own stock price than

9:36

paying its entire workforce. But I'm not

9:38

just picking on Lowe's. The 100 lowest

9:41

paying companies in the S&P 500 spent a

9:43

combined $644 billion on buybacks over

9:47

that same exact period. And you might be

9:48

asking like, why? Why would a CEO choose

9:51

to inflate the stock price instead of

9:52

investing in the company? Well, it's

9:54

because over 80% of the CEOs now get

9:56

paid from stock awards and stock

9:59

options. So, when the stock price goes

10:01

up, the CEO gets paid a lot more. And

10:04

it's pretty much that simple. So, if

10:05

we're going to be real here, is it fair

10:07

to just blame the CEOs when that's

10:09

really just the incentive structure at

10:11

play? And incentives are always going to

10:13

reveal outcomes. So, before you go in

10:15

the comments and start calling me a

10:16

bootlicker, what I'm trying to get at is

10:18

that the CEO can't just do this alone.

10:20

In fact, they have bosses, too. And not

10:22

to mention, someone has to be buying

10:24

those inflated stocks and not just

10:26

buying them, but holding them and even

10:28

encouraging it. Which brings me to the

10:30

second player. And these companies here

10:33

sit at the center of all of this. Black

10:35

Rockck, Vanguard, and State Street are

10:37

all asset management companies, and they

10:39

manage over $24 trillion. And not just

10:42

that, they're the largest single

10:44

shareholder in 88% of S&P 500 companies.

10:48

And with that amount of power means that

10:50

these three firms vote on behalf of

10:52

millions of investors at corporate

10:54

shareholder meetings, which means that

10:55

they have a lot of say on things from,

10:57

let's say, CEO compensation packages or

11:00

buyback programs. And guess how these

11:02

asset management firms make their money?

11:04

They charge fees on the percentage of

11:05

total assets, which means exactly what

11:07

you might be tracking. So anytime the

11:09

stock market goes up, their revenue goes

11:11

up automatically. So these same three

11:13

firms that make more money when stock

11:15

prices rise are also the same people who

11:18

vote on whether CEOs can keep inflating

11:20

stocks with buybacks. Of course, they're

11:22

never going to vote no considering every

11:24

buyback inflates the assets that they

11:26

collect fees on. And voting against

11:28

buybacks will be voting against their

11:30

own revenue. So those are the two

11:32

players. But there's one more player

11:34

that keeps this whole thing protected

11:36

because none of this works without

11:38

someone writing the rules to allow it.

11:40

When Nancy Pelosi took office in 1987,

11:42

her portfolio was worth somewhere

11:44

between like $600,000 and $800,000. But

11:47

today, it's worth $133.7

11:50

million. That's a 16,930%

11:53

gain. And it's not even close to how

11:55

much they beat out the S&P, the NASDAQ,

11:57

and the Dow over the same exact period.

11:59

But I think you all know this by now.

12:01

Over hundred members of Congress make

12:03

10,000 stock trades every year. And and

12:05

it's not like this right or left thing

12:07

because both Democrats and Republicans

12:09

consistently overperform even

12:11

professional money managers. And just to

12:13

protect myself allegedly and in my

12:16

opinion, these members are routinely

12:18

trading stocks with insider information

12:20

on companies that their committees

12:22

directly oversee. So I think a lot of

12:24

you already know this, but here's what

12:26

most people miss. Again, just protect

12:28

myself. It's not just about allegedly,

12:30

in my opinion, insider trading in

12:32

Congress. It goes even higher because

12:35

think about it. How do we measure

12:36

whether a president is doing a good job?

12:38

It's usually the stock market that has

12:40

become like the scorecard now for

12:42

success and every president knows this.

12:45

I've analyzed a lot of Trump's and

12:46

previous president's speeches, and Trump

12:48

himself has pointed to the stock market

12:50

more than almost everything else is

12:52

proof that his policies work. And of

12:54

course, I'm recording this just as the

12:55

war has broken out. But usually the

12:57

approval ratings and the market's

12:59

performance tend to move together. When

13:02

the market is up, approval ratings are

13:03

high. And when it dips, he's kind of

13:06

where I'm going with this is that Wall

13:07

Street knows this, too. They know that

13:09

no president, regardless of party, can

13:11

ever afford to let the market crash. So,

13:13

what this means that every CEO doing

13:15

buybacks and every asset manager

13:17

collecting fees know that they have

13:20

pretty much unlimited protection. they

13:22

can keep inflating prices because the

13:24

government can't afford to stop them and

13:26

tell them no. So, you can now start

13:28

seeing how this is all circular and

13:30

connected. The president needs the

13:31

market up to prove that the economy

13:33

works. The market needs the president to

13:35

keep the rule favorable. And as long as

13:37

both sides need each other, nothing

13:39

changes. And to put a little tiny bow on

13:41

top of that, it's exactly why 26 out of

13:43

42 Wall Street lobbyists last year were

13:46

former government employees. So, it's

13:48

not even two separate groups of people

13:50

anymore. They're all the same damn

13:52

thing. Just like the addiction that we

13:54

talked about earlier, the longer this

13:56

loop runs, the harder it becomes to

13:58

break. Because breaking it wouldn't just

14:00

hurt the people at the top, it would

14:02

crash the same retirement accounts and

14:04

pensions that regular people depend on.

14:06

So, it's not crazy to say that this

14:08

system has now made you hostage. And I

14:11

can prove that, too.

14:17

But the thing you need to understand

14:18

first is that the economy is strong. And

14:20

that's not a lie. Every single one of

14:22

those numbers is real. But to understand

14:24

this, what nobody tells you is who those

14:26

numbers are actually measuring. Because

14:28

if you're going to be held hostage, you

14:29

also need a hostage taker. And what

14:31

we're starting to see is two completely

14:34

different economies running inside the

14:36

same country. And someone much smarter

14:39

than I am have put it into words better

14:41

than I could. In September 2025, Mark

14:43

Xandy, the chief economist at Moody's

14:45

Analytics, updated his data on who's

14:48

actually spending money in America. And

14:50

his conclusion is kind of scary. As you

14:53

can see in this tweet, looking at the

14:55

data, it's not a mystery why most

14:57

Americans feel like the economy isn't

14:59

working for them. For the bottom 80%,

15:01

those making less than about $175,000 a

15:04

year, spending has just kept pace with

15:06

inflation since the pandemic, which

15:08

means that it didn't really grow. It

15:10

just matched price increases. But if you

15:12

compare that to the top 3.3% in Xand's

15:15

words, what it's showing is that they're

15:16

doing much, much, much better. But like,

15:20

duh, of course, if you have more income,

15:22

you're going to be able to spend more,

15:23

but so what? Well, remember how the

15:25

economy measures everything? When

15:27

consumer spending in the US makes up

15:29

about 70% of our GDP, I mean, [ __ ]

15:31

like, we love to consume. What this

15:33

essentially means is that 10% of people

15:35

are driving 50% of all that, which

15:38

essentially means that the GDP looks

15:40

strong on paper, but that growth is

15:42

largely being driven from one group's

15:45

stock gains and home equity. But still,

15:47

just throwing numbers at you is still

15:49

abstract until you see what I'm talking

15:51

about being played out in the real

15:53

world. Because what we're now seeing is

15:54

that companies have noticed the split

15:56

and they're actively picking sides.

15:58

Believe it or not, in the early 2000s,

16:00

McDonald's was like in this death spiral

16:02

where sales were failing and so was its

16:05

stock. But then they came up with this

16:06

brilliant idea to introduce the dollar

16:09

menu. Remember those? It was obviously

16:11

built for low-income consumers who

16:13

needed to make the most bang out of

16:14

their buck and it worked. McDonald's

16:17

revenue shot up 33% and as we know them

16:19

today, built an empire on affordable

16:21

food for everyone. But fast forward to

16:23

2025 and that's quietly no longer the

16:25

case. The McDonald's CEO has recently

16:27

told investors that traffic from

16:29

low-income households to McDonald's has

16:31

dropped by nearly double digits. And

16:33

it's because 78% of Americans now view

16:36

fast food restaurants like McDonald's as

16:38

a luxury. And instead, what he's seeing

16:40

is that highincome visitors have

16:43

skyrocketed. And as I looked even

16:44

closer, what I found is that this is

16:46

basically happening to every industry in

16:48

America. And everything is splitting in

16:50

two. Even traditional low-cost retailers

16:52

like Walmart are seeing similar trends.

16:54

Luxury hotels like Four Seasons and Ritz

16:56

Carlton are posting nearly 3% higher

16:59

revenue while economy budget hotels have

17:01

dropped 3.1%. Airlines are rapidly

17:04

building up luxury suites with caviar

17:06

service. In a problem that they're

17:07

facing is that it's overcrowded while

17:10

economy seat demand has started to

17:12

shrink. So what's becoming more and more

17:14

clear is that we're looking at what

17:15

economists call a K-shaped economy where

17:18

one line goes up and the other goes

17:20

down. And even under this same system in

17:22

loops is a sharp increase in two

17:24

completely different outcomes depending

17:26

on which side of the K you are on. And

17:28

so you might be thinking as long as

17:29

you're on top of the K, who cares? But

17:31

this is why it should scare everyone

17:33

because if things don't change, it's

17:35

only going to keep affecting everyone.

17:36

As our homie Xandy puts it right now, it

17:39

doesn't feel like the economy is perched

17:40

on a strong foundation. It's perched on

17:43

a few poles that are sticking up. And if

17:45

one of those poles gets knocked out,

17:47

then the whole economy gets knocked

17:49

down. And it's scary because he's right.

17:51

The stock market right now is being

17:53

carried by a handful of tech companies

17:55

investing heavily in AI. Job growth is

17:57

being carried almost entirely by the

17:59

healthc care sector. And consumer

18:01

spending, remember 70% of GDP, is again

18:04

being carried only by the top 10%. And

18:06

when that top 10% is continuing to own

18:09

more and more stocks to a tune of around

18:11

624,000 more than just 3 years ago

18:14

because the stock price keeps going up

18:15

and up. Now the question becomes what

18:17

happens if the market and when it

18:20

corrects? And as I'm writing this,

18:22

especially with what's going on with the

18:24

war, if this now leads to some sort of

18:25

collapse and they start pulling back

18:27

their money, there's not really going to

18:29

be anything underneath to catch that

18:31

fall. And I haven't even mentioned the

18:32

middle class that used to be the

18:34

backbone of this economy and country.

18:36

And there's a reason why there isn't any

18:38

even space for them on the K. And it's

18:40

because the middle class is actively

18:42

shrinking. What used to be 61% in 1971

18:45

is now 51% today. And most of those

18:48

people falling out of the middle class

18:49

aren't moving up, they're sliding down

18:52

in the bottom part. And like I talked

18:53

about earlier, we've already seen this

18:55

movie with the Great Depression where

18:57

the asset class will inevitably benefit

18:59

from the crash and recovery while even

19:01

years after the non-asset class stood in

19:03

bread lines. And what scares me most is

19:05

that right now the S&P 500 and consumer

19:08

sentiment are forming that exact same

19:11

shape. So what's clear is that even with

19:13

this strong economy that we see today,

19:15

what it doesn't describe is the 330

19:17

million people that make up this

19:18

country. What it more so describes is

19:21

the 33 million. But hey, at least the

19:24

DAO is over 50,000, right? So now the

19:27

question becomes, what's next? I mean,

19:29

it's pretty clear that this isn't a

19:30

broken system waiting to be fixed. And

19:32

when you consider that this has been a

19:34

working system since the age of kings

19:35

and queens, or at least the Great

19:37

Depression, truth is it will always

19:39

probably be this way. But what I'm

19:41

actually trying to say here is that this

19:43

actually means hope. Hope that if the

19:45

system is always going to be designed

19:47

this way, once you see it, you can

19:49

actually start to use it. Because if the

19:50

people running our economy is indeed

19:52

addicted to this loop that I explained,

19:54

what becomes obvious if you want to

19:56

escape this permanent underclass is that

19:58

the difference between the two economies

20:00

isn't income. 41% of people today making

20:03

between $300,000 to $500,000 a year say

20:07

that they're living paycheck to

20:08

paycheck. And when I looked even closer,

20:10

40% of people making over 500,000 are

20:14

saying the same thing. So what's clear

20:16

is that now more than ever, the line

20:17

isn't income, it's ownership. Because if

20:20

the system is set up where if you own

20:22

assets the current carries you and if

20:24

you don't, no matter how much you make

20:26

or work hard, it will always pull away

20:29

from you. So obviously what I'm saying

20:31

is easier said than done. And in fact,

20:34

it's only getting harder. But as I

20:35

record this video right now from

20:37

Croatia, what I'm constantly getting

20:39

reminded is that for all of America's

20:41

problems, that door is still open wider

20:44

than any other country on Earth. So, I'm

20:46

not going to lie to you and say that I'm

20:48

not trying to join that upper part of

20:50

the K, but I know for certain that the

20:51

more I understand how this works, the

20:53

more I know to my heart that I can only

20:55

do it in a way that's ethical and

20:57

honest. So, if you do have a problem

20:59

with me wanting to escape the permanent

21:01

underclass, you should unsubscribe right

21:03

now, and I mean it. I do not want you in

21:05

my audience because in a world of money

21:07

and power, the people who understand the

21:09

game will always do better than the

21:12

people who refuse to acknowledge it. And

21:14

that's exactly who I'm making these

21:16

videos

Interactive Summary

This video explores the growing disconnect between the booming stock market and the reality faced by most Americans, framing it as the development of two separate economies. The narrator explains how corporate incentives, government policy, and addiction to quantitative easing have created a 'K-shaped' economy where the wealthy benefit from asset ownership while the middle class and lower-income individuals struggle. The core argument is that the current system is designed to favor asset owners, and to thrive, one must shift focus from simply earning income to acquiring assets.

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