If The Economy Is F*cked, Why Hasn’t It Crashed Yet?
600 segments
Inflation is plummeting. Incomes are
rising fast.
>> Every single metric out there is saying
that the economy is stronger than ever.
GDP is growing, low unemployment, and
stocks are at all-time highs.
>> The roaring economy is roaring like
never before.
>> So then, why does it feel like none of
that is true? Because the stock market
hasn't been measuring your life for
almost a hundred years. In fact, what we
have now are two completely different
economies running inside the same
country. Okay, but why should you care?
Well, because now the same companies,
the same jobs, and the same industries
are splitting in half depending on which
side you're on. And so clearly that
impacts all of you. So you can't just
sit this one out because the people who
built this system made sure you can't
tear it down without holding you
hostage. So, I spent weeks uncovering
their playbook, and I'll break down this
entire thing in a way that's actually
easy to understand. And by the end of
this video, you'll understand why making
more money won't save you. But I'll tell
you exactly what will.
So, everyone's arguing about whether the
economy is good or bad with these record
high stock prices, but that's the wrong
question. Because the stock market was
never designed to measure whether your
life is getting better. it measures
something else entirely. So, let's start
by breaking it down in a simple way.
First and foremost, the economy measures
everything. And I mean everything from
trade to production. And it's usually
measured by things like GDP,
unemployment, inflation, and consumer
spending. Whereas the stock market
doesn't really directly measure any of
that. A better way to look at it,
especially now, it's where investors
trade bets on how much money companies
will make in the future. And so, it's a
bit of an oversimplification, but that's
it. And another thing to know is that
the S&P 500, which is what everyone
points to when they say that the market
is up, only tracks about 500 companies
out of the 30 million business in
America. So really, it's again talking
about a very thin slice of the actual
economy. If you don't believe me, this
also isn't the first time that the stock
market is telling a completely different
story while reality is telling another.
And every time it's happened before,
it's ended up the same way. I'm sure a
lot of you have heard about the roaring
20s and as the name suggests it was this
golden era on paper. Between 1922 and
1929, the Dow had gone up six times in 8
years and the economy was growing almost
5% a year while unemployment was only
under 4%. So it was roaring all right,
but underneath all of that were some
cracks on paper. Farmers were actually
drowning in debt. Factories were
producing way more product than they
could sell. And most of the market's
growth wasn't coming from real
businesses. It was coming from people
borrowing money to place bigger and
bigger bets on stocks going up. Sound
familiar? Well, in 1929, the stocks did
stop going up. The Great Depression hit,
wiping out 80 to 85% of the stock market
value. And soon enough, production
collapsed by nearly half and
unemployment hit 1 in4 Americans,
leading to the worst economic collapse
that you all know about. But here's the
thing that you may not know. Just a few
years after the crash, the stock market
started rallying back nearly over 300%
between 1933 and 1937. So again, on
paper, it was like America was so back.
But the thing is that was again just the
stock market. while many ordinary
Americans still stood in bread lines and
recovery wasn't really a reality for
most. So that was almost 100 years ago
when it's one of the earliest and
clearest examples of the stock market
and the economy telling completely
different stories. And today the S&P is
at all-time highs while consumer
confidence is near pandemic lows. So the
question becomes why does this keep
happening? Well, there's a few reasons,
but one in particular stands out, and it
starts with what I consider the biggest
bet in human history. If you watch any
of my countless videos on AI, you know
that big tech right now is in the middle
of the largest spending spree in
corporate history, from data centers to
infrastructure. And comparing it to
previous bubbles, it's now more than
tripled than what the entire telecom
industry spent at the peak of the dot
boom. But with that said, that sounds
great, right? Especially when the
economy is factoring in consumer
spending and investment. So it must mean
that growth is happening. But if you
hear the words from Goldman Sachs chief
economist, he said it and broke it down
the best. When asked about how much AI
spending actually boosted the economy in
2025, his answer was basically zero.
>> Our estimate AI investment didn't affect
US GDP growth
>> because most of the hardware is
imported. So it doesn't even count
towards American production. the money
flows out, the stock prices go up, and
the GDP number barely moves. So
remember, the economy isn't growing
because of AI. The stock market is
growing because of AI. Like I
established, those are two very
different things. But again, that isn't
even the biggest reason because the real
engine has been burning since 2008. A
feedback loop that we gotten so addicted
to as a country that truly explains why
the stock market and economy no longer
matches up. Before 2008, the Fed wasn't
really pumping too much money into the
financial system. Roughly around $800
billion, but that number hasn't really
changed over the decades. But then when
the crash happened, the Fed started to
panic and as a Fed does by controlling
monetary policy slashinter interest
rates to near zero and for the first
time ever started increasingly pumping
and printing more money where by 2014
that $800 billion has grown to $4.5
trillion. And this addiction is called
quantitative easing. But all you need to
know is that the Fed was creating money,
pumping it into financial markets like
stocks, bonds, and real estate, causing
stock prices to shoot up. But again,
those were just assets, not wages or the
value of the dollar. And just like a Zen
or a nicotine gum addiction, you say is
only just once in a while, started
showing signs of real habit.
Because a few years later in 2017 when
they stopped trying to do this
quantitative easing, well, the market
started crashing. So, they reversed
course and brought it back. And once
that recent pandemic hit, that $4
trillion now doubled to $9 trillion in 2
years. And it's exactly why stocks have
ballooned during this time. And not to
mention with all that money printed
meant inflation hitting the highest in
40 years. But who who cares about that?
But what's clear is that this loop now
became an addiction. And every time the
economy started showing signs of slowing
down, the dose got bigger and bigger.
The Fed prints more money. Money flows
into stocks. The people who own stocks
feel richer. Let me let me take this
out. They spend more. That spending
shows up in GDP. And politicians call it
a strong economy. And just as we're
seeing now, it's now something they
can't even stop. It's a full-blown
addiction because every time they try to
pull back, the market drops. And so just
like a withdrawal, they put it right
back.
I was actually going to light this for
this video, but probably shouldn't
inside of this apartment, but anyways,
the stock market has become a wealth
engine that runs on a completely
different track. But what's clear is
that a system like this doesn't just
sustain itself by accident. And when you
follow the money to find out who exactly
benefits from keeping it this way,
you'll start to see why nothing ever
changes. And part of understanding how
money actually works starts with
understanding your own. But most people
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Money today. So, back to it because I've
now proven to you how the stock market
and economy are different. And a big
reason why is that addictive feedback
loop that we've gotten addicted to. But
what I found are three players that are
now feeding into each other to keep this
loop running forever.
So let's start at the top, the CEOs. So
for most of the 20th century, stock
buybacks were illegal and for good
reason. Because if a company uses its
own money to buy its own stock, the
price obviously goes up and anyone with
a brain will think that's textbook
manipulation. But in 1982, they quietly
changed that rule. And since then,
buybacks have become one of the most
powerful tools in corporate America and
something that allows the soul and blood
of America, the stock market, to keep
going up. So, let me just show you
exactly what I mean. Between 2019 and
2024, Lowe's, like the hardware store,
spent $46.6 billion buying back its own
stock. And yeah, big number, but that
works out to roughly $28,000 per
employee, while the average Lowe's
worker made around $30,600.
So if you view it like that, the company
was literally spending almost as much as
inflating its own stock price than
paying its entire workforce. But I'm not
just picking on Lowe's. The 100 lowest
paying companies in the S&P 500 spent a
combined $644 billion on buybacks over
that same exact period. And you might be
asking like, why? Why would a CEO choose
to inflate the stock price instead of
investing in the company? Well, it's
because over 80% of the CEOs now get
paid from stock awards and stock
options. So, when the stock price goes
up, the CEO gets paid a lot more. And
it's pretty much that simple. So, if
we're going to be real here, is it fair
to just blame the CEOs when that's
really just the incentive structure at
play? And incentives are always going to
reveal outcomes. So, before you go in
the comments and start calling me a
bootlicker, what I'm trying to get at is
that the CEO can't just do this alone.
In fact, they have bosses, too. And not
to mention, someone has to be buying
those inflated stocks and not just
buying them, but holding them and even
encouraging it. Which brings me to the
second player. And these companies here
sit at the center of all of this. Black
Rockck, Vanguard, and State Street are
all asset management companies, and they
manage over $24 trillion. And not just
that, they're the largest single
shareholder in 88% of S&P 500 companies.
And with that amount of power means that
these three firms vote on behalf of
millions of investors at corporate
shareholder meetings, which means that
they have a lot of say on things from,
let's say, CEO compensation packages or
buyback programs. And guess how these
asset management firms make their money?
They charge fees on the percentage of
total assets, which means exactly what
you might be tracking. So anytime the
stock market goes up, their revenue goes
up automatically. So these same three
firms that make more money when stock
prices rise are also the same people who
vote on whether CEOs can keep inflating
stocks with buybacks. Of course, they're
never going to vote no considering every
buyback inflates the assets that they
collect fees on. And voting against
buybacks will be voting against their
own revenue. So those are the two
players. But there's one more player
that keeps this whole thing protected
because none of this works without
someone writing the rules to allow it.
When Nancy Pelosi took office in 1987,
her portfolio was worth somewhere
between like $600,000 and $800,000. But
today, it's worth $133.7
million. That's a 16,930%
gain. And it's not even close to how
much they beat out the S&P, the NASDAQ,
and the Dow over the same exact period.
But I think you all know this by now.
Over hundred members of Congress make
10,000 stock trades every year. And and
it's not like this right or left thing
because both Democrats and Republicans
consistently overperform even
professional money managers. And just to
protect myself allegedly and in my
opinion, these members are routinely
trading stocks with insider information
on companies that their committees
directly oversee. So I think a lot of
you already know this, but here's what
most people miss. Again, just protect
myself. It's not just about allegedly,
in my opinion, insider trading in
Congress. It goes even higher because
think about it. How do we measure
whether a president is doing a good job?
It's usually the stock market that has
become like the scorecard now for
success and every president knows this.
I've analyzed a lot of Trump's and
previous president's speeches, and Trump
himself has pointed to the stock market
more than almost everything else is
proof that his policies work. And of
course, I'm recording this just as the
war has broken out. But usually the
approval ratings and the market's
performance tend to move together. When
the market is up, approval ratings are
high. And when it dips, he's kind of
where I'm going with this is that Wall
Street knows this, too. They know that
no president, regardless of party, can
ever afford to let the market crash. So,
what this means that every CEO doing
buybacks and every asset manager
collecting fees know that they have
pretty much unlimited protection. they
can keep inflating prices because the
government can't afford to stop them and
tell them no. So, you can now start
seeing how this is all circular and
connected. The president needs the
market up to prove that the economy
works. The market needs the president to
keep the rule favorable. And as long as
both sides need each other, nothing
changes. And to put a little tiny bow on
top of that, it's exactly why 26 out of
42 Wall Street lobbyists last year were
former government employees. So, it's
not even two separate groups of people
anymore. They're all the same damn
thing. Just like the addiction that we
talked about earlier, the longer this
loop runs, the harder it becomes to
break. Because breaking it wouldn't just
hurt the people at the top, it would
crash the same retirement accounts and
pensions that regular people depend on.
So, it's not crazy to say that this
system has now made you hostage. And I
can prove that, too.
But the thing you need to understand
first is that the economy is strong. And
that's not a lie. Every single one of
those numbers is real. But to understand
this, what nobody tells you is who those
numbers are actually measuring. Because
if you're going to be held hostage, you
also need a hostage taker. And what
we're starting to see is two completely
different economies running inside the
same country. And someone much smarter
than I am have put it into words better
than I could. In September 2025, Mark
Xandy, the chief economist at Moody's
Analytics, updated his data on who's
actually spending money in America. And
his conclusion is kind of scary. As you
can see in this tweet, looking at the
data, it's not a mystery why most
Americans feel like the economy isn't
working for them. For the bottom 80%,
those making less than about $175,000 a
year, spending has just kept pace with
inflation since the pandemic, which
means that it didn't really grow. It
just matched price increases. But if you
compare that to the top 3.3% in Xand's
words, what it's showing is that they're
doing much, much, much better. But like,
duh, of course, if you have more income,
you're going to be able to spend more,
but so what? Well, remember how the
economy measures everything? When
consumer spending in the US makes up
about 70% of our GDP, I mean, [ __ ]
like, we love to consume. What this
essentially means is that 10% of people
are driving 50% of all that, which
essentially means that the GDP looks
strong on paper, but that growth is
largely being driven from one group's
stock gains and home equity. But still,
just throwing numbers at you is still
abstract until you see what I'm talking
about being played out in the real
world. Because what we're now seeing is
that companies have noticed the split
and they're actively picking sides.
Believe it or not, in the early 2000s,
McDonald's was like in this death spiral
where sales were failing and so was its
stock. But then they came up with this
brilliant idea to introduce the dollar
menu. Remember those? It was obviously
built for low-income consumers who
needed to make the most bang out of
their buck and it worked. McDonald's
revenue shot up 33% and as we know them
today, built an empire on affordable
food for everyone. But fast forward to
2025 and that's quietly no longer the
case. The McDonald's CEO has recently
told investors that traffic from
low-income households to McDonald's has
dropped by nearly double digits. And
it's because 78% of Americans now view
fast food restaurants like McDonald's as
a luxury. And instead, what he's seeing
is that highincome visitors have
skyrocketed. And as I looked even
closer, what I found is that this is
basically happening to every industry in
America. And everything is splitting in
two. Even traditional low-cost retailers
like Walmart are seeing similar trends.
Luxury hotels like Four Seasons and Ritz
Carlton are posting nearly 3% higher
revenue while economy budget hotels have
dropped 3.1%. Airlines are rapidly
building up luxury suites with caviar
service. In a problem that they're
facing is that it's overcrowded while
economy seat demand has started to
shrink. So what's becoming more and more
clear is that we're looking at what
economists call a K-shaped economy where
one line goes up and the other goes
down. And even under this same system in
loops is a sharp increase in two
completely different outcomes depending
on which side of the K you are on. And
so you might be thinking as long as
you're on top of the K, who cares? But
this is why it should scare everyone
because if things don't change, it's
only going to keep affecting everyone.
As our homie Xandy puts it right now, it
doesn't feel like the economy is perched
on a strong foundation. It's perched on
a few poles that are sticking up. And if
one of those poles gets knocked out,
then the whole economy gets knocked
down. And it's scary because he's right.
The stock market right now is being
carried by a handful of tech companies
investing heavily in AI. Job growth is
being carried almost entirely by the
healthc care sector. And consumer
spending, remember 70% of GDP, is again
being carried only by the top 10%. And
when that top 10% is continuing to own
more and more stocks to a tune of around
624,000 more than just 3 years ago
because the stock price keeps going up
and up. Now the question becomes what
happens if the market and when it
corrects? And as I'm writing this,
especially with what's going on with the
war, if this now leads to some sort of
collapse and they start pulling back
their money, there's not really going to
be anything underneath to catch that
fall. And I haven't even mentioned the
middle class that used to be the
backbone of this economy and country.
And there's a reason why there isn't any
even space for them on the K. And it's
because the middle class is actively
shrinking. What used to be 61% in 1971
is now 51% today. And most of those
people falling out of the middle class
aren't moving up, they're sliding down
in the bottom part. And like I talked
about earlier, we've already seen this
movie with the Great Depression where
the asset class will inevitably benefit
from the crash and recovery while even
years after the non-asset class stood in
bread lines. And what scares me most is
that right now the S&P 500 and consumer
sentiment are forming that exact same
shape. So what's clear is that even with
this strong economy that we see today,
what it doesn't describe is the 330
million people that make up this
country. What it more so describes is
the 33 million. But hey, at least the
DAO is over 50,000, right? So now the
question becomes, what's next? I mean,
it's pretty clear that this isn't a
broken system waiting to be fixed. And
when you consider that this has been a
working system since the age of kings
and queens, or at least the Great
Depression, truth is it will always
probably be this way. But what I'm
actually trying to say here is that this
actually means hope. Hope that if the
system is always going to be designed
this way, once you see it, you can
actually start to use it. Because if the
people running our economy is indeed
addicted to this loop that I explained,
what becomes obvious if you want to
escape this permanent underclass is that
the difference between the two economies
isn't income. 41% of people today making
between $300,000 to $500,000 a year say
that they're living paycheck to
paycheck. And when I looked even closer,
40% of people making over 500,000 are
saying the same thing. So what's clear
is that now more than ever, the line
isn't income, it's ownership. Because if
the system is set up where if you own
assets the current carries you and if
you don't, no matter how much you make
or work hard, it will always pull away
from you. So obviously what I'm saying
is easier said than done. And in fact,
it's only getting harder. But as I
record this video right now from
Croatia, what I'm constantly getting
reminded is that for all of America's
problems, that door is still open wider
than any other country on Earth. So, I'm
not going to lie to you and say that I'm
not trying to join that upper part of
the K, but I know for certain that the
more I understand how this works, the
more I know to my heart that I can only
do it in a way that's ethical and
honest. So, if you do have a problem
with me wanting to escape the permanent
underclass, you should unsubscribe right
now, and I mean it. I do not want you in
my audience because in a world of money
and power, the people who understand the
game will always do better than the
people who refuse to acknowledge it. And
that's exactly who I'm making these
videos
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
This video explores the growing disconnect between the booming stock market and the reality faced by most Americans, framing it as the development of two separate economies. The narrator explains how corporate incentives, government policy, and addiction to quantitative easing have created a 'K-shaped' economy where the wealthy benefit from asset ownership while the middle class and lower-income individuals struggle. The core argument is that the current system is designed to favor asset owners, and to thrive, one must shift focus from simply earning income to acquiring assets.
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