Are SpaceX investors betting on Mars?
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What do you make of this whole process?
The idea that it they set it at 1:35 and
that was it. Um, and what are you
expecting from the stock today and in
the coming weeks?
>> Sure.
Great to see you Julie again.
Um, a couple things, right? There's a
lot of things that at play here, right?
And so the big X factor is is Elon's uh,
you know, army of retail supporters,
right? And so
largely speaking they've been obviously
boxed out of the out of the stock,
right? There's there's really been no
way to play it. My hope or my belief is
I'm I'm hoping that a chunk of them were
able to
you know, participate today via
Robinhood, via E-Trade, you know, a lot
of those sorts of of platforms. Uh, I
can attest to the offering was very,
very over subscribed through all
channels. So I think whatever anybody
was trying to get today was you know,
significantly reduced, even ourselves
included. And so you know, it's it's a
really interesting setup, right? So what
what I what I don't want to see is let's
start with that. What I don't want to
see this thing just totally skyrocket to
some, you know, crazy valuation of
three, four, five trillion dollars or or
something very heavy and then it's got
to really do the price discovery, right?
And you've got all the different nuanced
things. You've got a long-term, you
know, you've got lockup for earlier
shareholders. You've got the inclusion
of the NASDAQ and then potential other
ETFs. So
again, there's a hundred different kind
of moving parts, but what I would love
to see is some sort of normal price
discovery and stability and hopefully it
can work off of that base moving
forward.
>> Justice, did you guys request more
shares on the IPO?
>> We did request more shares on the IPO.
That's right.
Uh, I got a portion of them. Um, you
know, we we deal with a you know, a
couple of the banks who were kind of,
you know, going a couple different
avenues given that there was a lot of
a lot of banks on the file. Um, but
yeah, so we we did get an allocation. It
wasn't, you know, you know how they say,
right? You you never get enough of what
you want. So that was kind of the
situation, but regardless we're we're
extremely happy.
>> Um, Justice, what do you, you know, as
you look at the business model, which I
I think, I mean,
I can speak for one, I was somewhat
surprised at the size of the AI business
and how much is riding on that business
that we learned about in the S1. So, as
you look at the various businesses, you
know, where do you think the biggest
opportunity lies and where is the
biggest risk in those businesses?
>> That's a great question and it's also
quite unique given that three companies
have have essentially merged in the
last, you know, 6 months or so and so.
A couple of things, right? So, the AI
business, I hear it both ways, I see it
both ways. You know, he gets, you know,
I would say he
sometimes gets short changed on the AI
business and the only reason I say that
is,
you know, there's a lot of comparisons
thrown around with, you know, Open AI,
Anthropic. You know, keep in mind, Open
AI's been around for over a decade,
right? Anthropic, 5 years, right? Elon's
just getting out of the gate. So, there
is a certain element of he hasn't had
enough time and real velocity of capital
to really get the thing off the ground
to make a more direct comparison.
>> Well, but the direct the direct
comparison would be with Grok
specifically to those. And it's been
around as long, I mean, as an LLM
available to the public, it's been
around about the same amount of time,
hasn't it?
>> Yeah, I mean, the Grok has been around
longer, but there wasn't a real impetus
to we're going to make this a sole
standalone AI platform similar to those,
you know, other companies, right? He
never took it, you know, he never he
never took capital on up until maybe 18
months ago. My my calendar's not
informing me. Maybe it was 24 months
ago, but it wasn't a decade ago, right?
So, I'm just I guess what I'm trying to
say is I think you got to give him and
that segment of the business long enough
time to really kind of see what what
they can do. And given the track record
of Elon and and his multiple businesses,
this guy's pretty much, you know,
batting a thousand percent. Maybe this
isn't the one that hits, but, you know,
the the odds are definitely in Elon's
favor.
>> Um, we did something fun where we went
out and talked to people on the streets
of New York City, asked them some
questions about SpaceX, and also asked
them what questions they had about the
IPO. So, I want to play one of them for
you, Justice, and see what your answer
to this question would be. So, listen
up.
>> I mean, are any real competitors going
to come out because they they currently
have basically no real ones? I mean,
you know,
what is it? Bezos's company? Is it even
doing that well? They just lost the
rocket. So, I'm wondering how they're
doing in comparison. I would love for
there to be some more competi-
competition in the market, even another
Starlink.
>> Yeah, so Justice, I mean, obviously
that's not talking about the AI
business, it's talking about the rocket
business. But, like, how, you know, how
do you think about SpaceX versus a Blue
Origin or some of the other competitors
out there?
>> Sure. And I mean, the other thing is
what what I don't necessarily love in in
this current environment, you guys, you
know, Brian and and and and and Pras,
and you guys kind of hit on it earlier,
is a lot of these companies, the Blue
Origins included, there's no way for 95%
of the investing public to play it
because they just they they there's a
velvet rope there and the other on one
side or another. And and unfortunately,
retail gets boxed out. So, I just want
to kind of start with that. And and and
specifically as it pertains to the space
industry, and I'm I'm more atypical
space than let's say AI. And and Julie,
I'm I'm not sure if you remember, was a
couple years ago I was on your show on
on Yahoo here. It was a uh
goodbye or goodbye, like see you later.
>> I do. Yeah. [clears throat]
>> And my number one recommendation 2 years
ago at at at the at the lean price of $4
a share was Rocket Lab. Today, that
stock is uh you know, 120, 130 bucks.
And so, I I loved and I still love
Rocket Lab,
shareholder of Rocket Lab. And so,
there's not that many pure space ways to
play the industry with the exception of
of Rocket Lab. You got, you know, a few
other companies, but it's it's a very
shallow market at the point. And my hope
as an investor is that there there
there's an emergence of more names that
actually hit the market in the space and
aerospace and and and kind of even
defense industries. And so, that's my
hope for the future. And I I hope for
whatever it's worth, they don't get all
get floated at one, two, three, four,
five trillion dollars. I'm hoping that
there is a little bit more of an avenue
back to the Renaissance days of uh you
know, Amazon going out at $400 million.
I'm going to stop for a second, but $400
million. I mean, that's effectively a
penny stock, right? So, um I I'm hoping
that some of these companies do come out
a little bit earlier and they don't get
become fully matured and the CEOs are
scared of earnings and things like that,
but I would love a little bit more
deeper, more public company way of the
future if at all possible.
>> And a lot of these space stocks, by the
way, the publicly traded ones are
actually pulling back today. We've seen
a lot of enthusiasm in that space
recently. Um but, you know, you can see
here some of the declines that we're
seeing um in these stocks, which is
interesting. Um Justice, I want to play
the for you the other question that was
probably the most asked question
um that we got when we were talking to
people on the street in New York City.
So, here's another one coming your way.
>> I'd love to know some timelines. Am I
going to see this Mars colonization in
my lifetime?
>> How long does it take to like make a
spaceship that safely goes to other
planets?
>> I mean, I would ask him just how
feasible his predictions are of going to
Mars soon. I mean, I think it's really
ambitious. I do think that's the next
step, but I'm really curious like, is
that really possible? I mean, he's given
some tight deadlines. I don't know if
it's actually going to happen.
>> So, Justice, what What do you think? Is
the Mars thing actually happening in our
lifetimes?
>> So, I'll break it down this way. I mean,
I'll double click on this way. So, I I I
like the way you framed that question is
is it possible or not? I'm very
reluctant to give a timeline. I would
more focus on like, can we even do this
thing? And so, the one step that was I I
guess maybe forgotten in some of that
commentary is
Mars is essentially step two or three.
The The first actual step is the moon.
So, all eyes are going to be on the
moon. A lot of this funding is going to
go towards the moon. And so, let let's
let's nail the moon. Let's do a good job
with the moon. Um he wants to get, you
know, a manufacturing and all sorts of
things into the moon and and and a lunar
economy. So, I think that's the better
barometer of how we'll be able to play
that and and assess things. And so,
look, the obviously if he does a great
job, maybe it's it takes longer than we
expect, but if there is a a colony on
the moon, there's manufacturing on the
moon, I think then that next step of
Mars is possible. If you were to put a
gun to my head, I unequivocally think
that within my lifetime, I'm 43 years
old, I think there will be activities on
Mars in my lifetime, which um
which will be incredible. What that
looks like, I I I don't exactly know,
but um that is the goal and that that is
why Elon's building these mega companies
to fund his endeavor to get to Mars, to
move civilization to Mars.
>> Justus, uh good to see you. It's Brian
here. Question for you. Um
look, we're all human. Uh if Elon slips
on a banana banana peel, something
happens to him, who runs SpaceX? And how
much in your estimation, how much Musk
premium is priced in here at SpaceX?
>> Yeah, and that that's that's the
brilliant question, Brian. Really great
to see you. I mean, and that's just it.
Everyone, you know, worries about
certain things about the company.
Usually it's about valuation and numbers
and stock price and, you know, all that
sort of collateral. The real problem is
the key man insurance, right? If for
whatever reason he's not able to run
that company anymore, that's a totally
different company. That said, he's got
such a moat around all of his
businesses, you know, I I would like it,
you know, I'd make it akin to maybe a
Steve Jobs or something like that where
the visionary founder is no longer
there, but the company is so big, so
robust, it's able to move on, but maybe
that hard line of innovation and true
founder feel of the company wouldn't be
there anymore. Still going to be a
one of the most valuable companies in
the world as is Tesla, etc., because
they're so far ahead of everything, but
the genesis of the company of the
innovation will will probably no longer
be there. So, that that's just an
interesting kind of side thought for
whatever it's worth. From the the SpaceX
perspective, Gwynne is a tremendous
president. She's been there for over 20
years. She, you know, I don't want to
say she is the business, but she's a
very very intrical not figurehead aspect
of the business. She's day to day. She's
running the show. And so, I think the
company's in great hands.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
This video features an interview with Justice, who discusses the recent IPO and business dynamics of SpaceX. He touches on the challenges for retail investors, the potential of Elon Musk's AI ventures, the competitive landscape in the space industry, and the long-term feasibility of Mars colonization. Additionally, the conversation addresses the 'key man' risk associated with Elon Musk and the role of leadership within SpaceX.
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