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Are SpaceX investors betting on Mars?

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Are SpaceX investors betting on Mars?

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317 segments

0:00

What do you make of this whole process?

0:01

The idea that it they set it at 1:35 and

0:03

that was it. Um, and what are you

0:05

expecting from the stock today and in

0:07

the coming weeks?

0:09

>> Sure.

0:10

Great to see you Julie again.

0:12

Um, a couple things, right? There's a

0:13

lot of things that at play here, right?

0:15

And so the big X factor is is Elon's uh,

0:18

you know, army of retail supporters,

0:22

right? And so

0:22

largely speaking they've been obviously

0:24

boxed out of the out of the stock,

0:26

right? There's there's really been no

0:27

way to play it. My hope or my belief is

0:30

I'm I'm hoping that a chunk of them were

0:31

able to

0:33

you know, participate today via

0:34

Robinhood, via E-Trade, you know, a lot

0:37

of those sorts of of platforms. Uh, I

0:39

can attest to the offering was very,

0:41

very over subscribed through all

0:42

channels. So I think whatever anybody

0:44

was trying to get today was you know,

0:46

significantly reduced, even ourselves

0:48

included. And so you know, it's it's a

0:50

really interesting setup, right? So what

0:51

what I what I don't want to see is let's

0:53

start with that. What I don't want to

0:54

see this thing just totally skyrocket to

0:57

some, you know, crazy valuation of

0:59

three, four, five trillion dollars or or

1:02

something very heavy and then it's got

1:04

to really do the price discovery, right?

1:06

And you've got all the different nuanced

1:08

things. You've got a long-term, you

1:09

know, you've got lockup for earlier

1:11

shareholders. You've got the inclusion

1:13

of the NASDAQ and then potential other

1:15

ETFs. So

1:17

again, there's a hundred different kind

1:18

of moving parts, but what I would love

1:19

to see is some sort of normal price

1:21

discovery and stability and hopefully it

1:24

can work off of that base moving

1:26

forward.

1:26

>> Justice, did you guys request more

1:28

shares on the IPO?

1:30

>> We did request more shares on the IPO.

1:33

That's right.

1:34

Uh, I got a portion of them. Um, you

1:35

know, we we deal with a you know, a

1:36

couple of the banks who were kind of,

1:38

you know, going a couple different

1:39

avenues given that there was a lot of

1:41

a lot of banks on the file. Um, but

1:42

yeah, so we we did get an allocation. It

1:44

wasn't, you know, you know how they say,

1:45

right? You you never get enough of what

1:47

you want. So that was kind of the

1:48

situation, but regardless we're we're

1:49

extremely happy.

1:51

>> Um, Justice, what do you, you know, as

1:53

you look at the business model, which I

1:55

I think, I mean,

1:57

I can speak for one, I was somewhat

1:58

surprised at the size of the AI business

2:02

and how much is riding on that business

2:04

that we learned about in the S1. So, as

2:06

you look at the various businesses, you

2:09

know, where do you think the biggest

2:10

opportunity lies and where is the

2:12

biggest risk in those businesses?

2:15

>> That's a great question and it's also

2:17

quite unique given that three companies

2:19

have have essentially merged in the

2:20

last, you know, 6 months or so and so.

2:23

A couple of things, right? So, the AI

2:25

business, I hear it both ways, I see it

2:27

both ways. You know, he gets, you know,

2:29

I would say he

2:31

sometimes gets short changed on the AI

2:33

business and the only reason I say that

2:35

is,

2:36

you know, there's a lot of comparisons

2:37

thrown around with, you know, Open AI,

2:40

Anthropic. You know, keep in mind, Open

2:42

AI's been around for over a decade,

2:44

right? Anthropic, 5 years, right? Elon's

2:46

just getting out of the gate. So, there

2:48

is a certain element of he hasn't had

2:50

enough time and real velocity of capital

2:54

to really get the thing off the ground

2:56

to make a more direct comparison.

2:58

>> Well, but the direct the direct

3:00

comparison would be with Grok

3:01

specifically to those. And it's been

3:03

around as long, I mean, as an LLM

3:06

available to the public, it's been

3:07

around about the same amount of time,

3:08

hasn't it?

3:10

>> Yeah, I mean, the Grok has been around

3:11

longer, but there wasn't a real impetus

3:13

to we're going to make this a sole

3:15

standalone AI platform similar to those,

3:18

you know, other companies, right? He

3:19

never took it, you know, he never he

3:20

never took capital on up until maybe 18

3:23

months ago. My my calendar's not

3:24

informing me. Maybe it was 24 months

3:25

ago, but it wasn't a decade ago, right?

3:28

So, I'm just I guess what I'm trying to

3:30

say is I think you got to give him and

3:32

that segment of the business long enough

3:35

time to really kind of see what what

3:38

they can do. And given the track record

3:40

of Elon and and his multiple businesses,

3:42

this guy's pretty much, you know,

3:44

batting a thousand percent. Maybe this

3:46

isn't the one that hits, but, you know,

3:47

the the odds are definitely in Elon's

3:49

favor.

3:50

>> Um, we did something fun where we went

3:52

out and talked to people on the streets

3:53

of New York City, asked them some

3:54

questions about SpaceX, and also asked

3:57

them what questions they had about the

3:59

IPO. So, I want to play one of them for

4:01

you, Justice, and see what your answer

4:02

to this question would be. So, listen

4:04

up.

4:06

>> I mean, are any real competitors going

4:07

to come out because they they currently

4:09

have basically no real ones? I mean,

4:13

you know,

4:13

what is it? Bezos's company? Is it even

4:15

doing that well? They just lost the

4:17

rocket. So, I'm wondering how they're

4:19

doing in comparison. I would love for

4:21

there to be some more competi-

4:22

competition in the market, even another

4:24

Starlink.

4:26

>> Yeah, so Justice, I mean, obviously

4:28

that's not talking about the AI

4:29

business, it's talking about the rocket

4:30

business. But, like, how, you know, how

4:32

do you think about SpaceX versus a Blue

4:34

Origin or some of the other competitors

4:36

out there?

4:37

>> Sure. And I mean, the other thing is

4:38

what what I don't necessarily love in in

4:40

this current environment, you guys, you

4:41

know, Brian and and and and and Pras,

4:42

and you guys kind of hit on it earlier,

4:44

is a lot of these companies, the Blue

4:45

Origins included, there's no way for 95%

4:50

of the investing public to play it

4:52

because they just they they there's a

4:54

velvet rope there and the other on one

4:55

side or another. And and unfortunately,

4:57

retail gets boxed out. So, I just want

4:59

to kind of start with that. And and and

5:00

specifically as it pertains to the space

5:02

industry, and I'm I'm more atypical

5:04

space than let's say AI. And and Julie,

5:07

I'm I'm not sure if you remember, was a

5:08

couple years ago I was on your show on

5:09

on Yahoo here. It was a uh

5:12

goodbye or goodbye, like see you later.

5:14

>> I do. Yeah. [clears throat]

5:16

>> And my number one recommendation 2 years

5:18

ago at at at the at the lean price of $4

5:20

a share was Rocket Lab. Today, that

5:23

stock is uh you know, 120, 130 bucks.

5:25

And so, I I loved and I still love

5:27

Rocket Lab,

5:28

shareholder of Rocket Lab. And so,

5:30

there's not that many pure space ways to

5:32

play the industry with the exception of

5:35

of Rocket Lab. You got, you know, a few

5:37

other companies, but it's it's a very

5:38

shallow market at the point. And my hope

5:41

as an investor is that there there

5:43

there's an emergence of more names that

5:45

actually hit the market in the space and

5:47

aerospace and and and kind of even

5:48

defense industries. And so, that's my

5:50

hope for the future. And I I hope for

5:52

whatever it's worth, they don't get all

5:53

get floated at one, two, three, four,

5:55

five trillion dollars. I'm hoping that

5:57

there is a little bit more of an avenue

6:00

back to the Renaissance days of uh you

6:01

know, Amazon going out at $400 million.

6:04

I'm going to stop for a second, but $400

6:06

million. I mean, that's effectively a

6:08

penny stock, right? So, um I I'm hoping

6:11

that some of these companies do come out

6:12

a little bit earlier and they don't get

6:14

become fully matured and the CEOs are

6:16

scared of earnings and things like that,

6:18

but I would love a little bit more

6:19

deeper, more public company way of the

6:22

future if at all possible.

6:24

>> And a lot of these space stocks, by the

6:25

way, the publicly traded ones are

6:27

actually pulling back today. We've seen

6:29

a lot of enthusiasm in that space

6:31

recently. Um but, you know, you can see

6:33

here some of the declines that we're

6:34

seeing um in these stocks, which is

6:36

interesting. Um Justice, I want to play

6:38

the for you the other question that was

6:40

probably the most asked question

6:42

um that we got when we were talking to

6:44

people on the street in New York City.

6:45

So, here's another one coming your way.

6:48

>> I'd love to know some timelines. Am I

6:50

going to see this Mars colonization in

6:53

my lifetime?

6:54

>> How long does it take to like make a

6:56

spaceship that safely goes to other

6:58

planets?

6:59

>> I mean, I would ask him just how

7:00

feasible his predictions are of going to

7:02

Mars soon. I mean, I think it's really

7:04

ambitious. I do think that's the next

7:06

step, but I'm really curious like, is

7:08

that really possible? I mean, he's given

7:09

some tight deadlines. I don't know if

7:11

it's actually going to happen.

7:13

>> So, Justice, what What do you think? Is

7:15

the Mars thing actually happening in our

7:17

lifetimes?

7:18

>> So, I'll break it down this way. I mean,

7:20

I'll double click on this way. So, I I I

7:22

like the way you framed that question is

7:23

is it possible or not? I'm very

7:25

reluctant to give a timeline. I would

7:28

more focus on like, can we even do this

7:30

thing? And so, the one step that was I I

7:32

guess maybe forgotten in some of that

7:34

commentary is

7:35

Mars is essentially step two or three.

7:38

The The first actual step is the moon.

7:41

So, all eyes are going to be on the

7:42

moon. A lot of this funding is going to

7:44

go towards the moon. And so, let let's

7:45

let's nail the moon. Let's do a good job

7:47

with the moon. Um he wants to get, you

7:49

know, a manufacturing and all sorts of

7:50

things into the moon and and and a lunar

7:52

economy. So, I think that's the better

7:55

barometer of how we'll be able to play

7:57

that and and assess things. And so,

7:58

look, the obviously if he does a great

8:00

job, maybe it's it takes longer than we

8:02

expect, but if there is a a colony on

8:04

the moon, there's manufacturing on the

8:06

moon, I think then that next step of

8:08

Mars is possible. If you were to put a

8:10

gun to my head, I unequivocally think

8:12

that within my lifetime, I'm 43 years

8:14

old, I think there will be activities on

8:18

Mars in my lifetime, which um

8:21

which will be incredible. What that

8:23

looks like, I I I don't exactly know,

8:25

but um that is the goal and that that is

8:27

why Elon's building these mega companies

8:29

to fund his endeavor to get to Mars, to

8:31

move civilization to Mars.

8:33

>> Justus, uh good to see you. It's Brian

8:35

here. Question for you. Um

8:37

look, we're all human. Uh if Elon slips

8:40

on a banana banana peel, something

8:41

happens to him, who runs SpaceX? And how

8:45

much in your estimation, how much Musk

8:47

premium is priced in here at SpaceX?

8:51

>> Yeah, and that that's that's the

8:52

brilliant question, Brian. Really great

8:53

to see you. I mean, and that's just it.

8:55

Everyone, you know, worries about

8:56

certain things about the company.

8:57

Usually it's about valuation and numbers

8:59

and stock price and, you know, all that

9:00

sort of collateral. The real problem is

9:03

the key man insurance, right? If for

9:05

whatever reason he's not able to run

9:07

that company anymore, that's a totally

9:09

different company. That said, he's got

9:11

such a moat around all of his

9:13

businesses, you know, I I would like it,

9:15

you know, I'd make it akin to maybe a

9:17

Steve Jobs or something like that where

9:18

the visionary founder is no longer

9:21

there, but the company is so big, so

9:23

robust, it's able to move on, but maybe

9:25

that hard line of innovation and true

9:27

founder feel of the company wouldn't be

9:30

there anymore. Still going to be a

9:32

one of the most valuable companies in

9:33

the world as is Tesla, etc., because

9:35

they're so far ahead of everything, but

9:37

the genesis of the company of the

9:38

innovation will will probably no longer

9:40

be there. So, that that's just an

9:42

interesting kind of side thought for

9:43

whatever it's worth. From the the SpaceX

9:45

perspective, Gwynne is a tremendous

9:46

president. She's been there for over 20

9:49

years. She, you know, I don't want to

9:50

say she is the business, but she's a

9:52

very very intrical not figurehead aspect

9:56

of the business. She's day to day. She's

9:57

running the show. And so, I think the

9:59

company's in great hands.

Interactive Summary

This video features an interview with Justice, who discusses the recent IPO and business dynamics of SpaceX. He touches on the challenges for retail investors, the potential of Elon Musk's AI ventures, the competitive landscape in the space industry, and the long-term feasibility of Mars colonization. Additionally, the conversation addresses the 'key man' risk associated with Elon Musk and the role of leadership within SpaceX.

Suggested questions

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