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What Americans Get Wrong About China — Investor Bill Gurley

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What Americans Get Wrong About China — Investor Bill Gurley

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208 segments

0:00

Let's move on to big topic, big country,

0:04

China.

0:06

You spent 10 days there over the past

0:09

summer. What was your experience? What

0:11

did you see? What made an impression?

0:14

What did you do?

0:15

>> I'd been about six times before, so this

0:17

is like my seventh trip. One thing that

0:20

was different, my daughter is Asian

0:21

studies major, as you were.

0:23

>> Yeah. [laughter]

0:24

>> And she spent the summer in Hong Kong.

0:26

So we picked her up and then we toured

0:29

six cities in 10 days. [snorts] And my

0:32

objective with this trip, in the past

0:35

trips, it was mostly just to meet with

0:37

entrepreneurs and founders and mutual

0:39

sharing of information, that kind of

0:41

thing. This time I was more interested

0:43

in just kind of being eyes wide open and

0:46

learning. And so we took two of the

0:48

highspeed trains, you know, just as an

0:50

experience set. I got a tour of the Xiai

0:53

factory with their new car, the SU7, and

0:57

was trying to get a feel for what's kind

1:02

of most recent there. And we, you know,

1:05

went to Shenzhen overnight city, which

1:07

has gone from, I think, less than

1:09

100,000 people in 1980 to 20 million

1:12

people just to see the scale and scope

1:14

of the whole thing. There's a lot of

1:16

rhetoric in the US about what is or

1:19

isn't happening in China [snorts] and I

1:23

just wanted to have a better feel for it

1:24

and and we're making policy decisions

1:27

that are going to impact, you know, the

1:30

global footprint and god forbid, you

1:33

know, end up in a World War II kind of

1:35

situation. So anyway, I just wanted a

1:38

better understanding. I was aided by the

1:40

fact that Dan Wong shared his book

1:43

Breakneck with me right before I left

1:46

and I read it while I was there which

1:48

was interesting and then it came out and

1:49

of course it ended up on the bestseller

1:51

list but I think China's misperceived in

1:53

a lot of ways.

1:54

>> What are some of those misperceptions?

1:56

The biggest one is that people who have

2:00

a rudimentary understanding

2:03

of

2:05

what is happening there

2:07

use this word communism to infer a lot

2:10

of other things. And one of the things

2:13

that's inferred by communism is top-down

2:17

state-run system. and they think they

2:20

think of Russia and they assume well

2:24

that'll always lead to bad capital

2:26

allocation, no innovation because they

2:29

have this picture of in their mind of

2:31

these brick buildings like with snow all

2:34

around them and not much happening.

2:37

>> And the reality there is just far far

2:40

different from that. I think Dan

2:41

[snorts] Wong did a great job of

2:44

explaining how the country puts out this

2:48

five-year plan, but then the provinces,

2:50

which are they're a lot bigger than a US

2:53

state, but they're the equivalent, like

2:55

it's how the country segmented, they

2:57

compete with each other. And [snorts]

3:00

the effective mayor of the province, if

3:03

he if he does well, has a chance to move

3:05

up in the system, which is not a reality

3:07

in the US system. But what that leads to

3:10

is just a massive amount of competition.

3:14

>> What are the metrics by which they're

3:17

being judged? Do you have any idea on a

3:19

province level?

3:21

>> Is it some equivalent of GDP? It's not

3:24

the right term, but

3:25

>> I'm guessing probably like we could go

3:27

talk to AI and get a better answer

3:29

[laughter] than I have right now, but

3:31

yeah, I would think that's part of it.

3:33

Prosperity, employment,

3:35

>> those kind of things. By the way, this

3:38

provincial competition has also led to

3:41

overbuild of buildings. Like, it's not

3:44

always positive. You know, bridges that

3:46

aren't used,

3:47

>> ghost cities.

3:47

>> Go cities. Yes. But you end up with

3:50

hyper competition. So the I think the

3:54

thing that a lot of people in Silicon

3:56

Valley love about capitalism is this

4:00

notion of the invisible hand and

4:03

competition that leads to innovation and

4:05

best practice and the winners rise up

4:08

and they're better for it. That is

4:10

happening there. And if you read about

4:12

the solar industry or the EV industry or

4:15

now the the robotics industry, they have

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hundreds [snorts] of different companies

4:20

competing in these fields and it's

4:23

brutal competition. And as a result of

4:26

that, they're ending up with very

4:29

innovative companies, which once again,

4:31

I think people wouldn't prescribe to

4:33

being possible in [snorts] a communist,

4:36

you know, world and remarkable

4:40

execution from a industrial standpoint.

4:42

So the price points of the products that

4:46

that will be sold around the globe are

4:48

well below anything that could be done

4:50

in the US. How do you go about getting a

4:54

tour of Xiaomi factory? I would think

4:57

that they would be very closed about

5:00

that. What's in it for them? And how do

5:02

they

5:03

>> I don't know if you saw this going

5:04

around the internet yesterday, but they

5:06

shipped a car to this YouTuber.

5:08

>> Oh, yeah. I saw it.

5:10

>> Brilliant. And he did like a 15. That's

5:13

the SU7. That's the factory I went to.

5:15

As I mentioned, I'd been there before.

5:17

So I met Le Jun who's the founder of

5:20

Xiai in 2005 when he was chairman of

5:23

Joyo which was a e-commerce company that

5:26

Amazon bought. So he's been around a

5:29

while.

5:29

>> Yeah.

5:30

>> He has evolved into the best thing I

5:34

could say is like he's the Steve Jobs of

5:36

China right now.

5:38

>> When he quit doing yo-yo and he had this

5:40

other company as well, he declared 10

5:42

years ago he was going to build a

5:44

smartphone. just out of the blue, I'm

5:46

going to build a smartphone. He didn't

5:47

have any smartphone experience, but Xiai

5:50

is now the third largest manufacturer of

5:52

handsets in the globe. And about four or

5:55

five years ago,

5:57

>> at about the exact same time, Apple

6:00

hinted they were interested in building

6:01

a car. He said, "I'm going to build a

6:03

car."

6:04

>> Well, not only did he say, "I'm going to

6:05

build a car," but that was a response to

6:08

sanctions, right? It was an emergency as

6:12

I I listened to one of well I listened

6:14

to the translation of even though my

6:16

Chinese is decent but it's not as good

6:18

as it once was his I think it was 2024

6:21

>> that's it

6:22

>> companywide address where he talked

6:24

about the sanctions coming in saying

6:27

what if we couldn't make phones what

6:30

would we do

6:31

>> that talk is unbelievable and it it's

6:33

translated on YouTube and I would

6:35

encourage people to watch from about

6:37

minute 30 to about an hour

6:40

which is where he talks about his

6:42

process for designing the car. I don't

6:44

know if you saw that part. I did.

6:46

>> But it's crazy. He says he put a note on

6:49

any car in his parking lot that he had

6:51

never drove. And he would ask each

6:53

employee to give them three positives,

6:55

three negatives, and loan him the car.

6:57

Said he drove 200 of his employees cars.

7:00

When you hear that kind of stuff, you're

7:02

like, "Wow, I wonder if anyone at Apple

7:05

did that." I mean, it's just such a kind

7:07

of bottom up just ground truth way to

7:11

start the process. But even still, even

7:14

if you did that, like a bunch of people

7:16

could do that. How do you have the

7:18

wherewithal to build a factory? He'd

7:21

never built a factory before. I've been

7:23

in other car factories here in the US.

7:26

It was phenomenal. Anyway, back to your

7:29

question. Why I could get in is I I knew

7:31

late June from way back.

7:33

>> What does the process look like? Are

7:34

there a bunch of clearances and you have

7:36

to get the okay from the provincial?

7:38

>> I don't think we went through the whole

7:40

factory, but no, I mean, they're a

7:41

public company. I think they're

7:43

interested in

7:44

>> being well understood.

7:46

>> Yeah.

7:46

>> Which I think hints at why they enabled

7:48

this. I think they had to send a car to

7:50

this guy,

7:51

>> the YouTuber.

7:52

>> Yeah.

7:53

>> And by the way, the president of Ford

7:56

went over there about 6 months before I

7:59

did. went on the same tour. So, they let

8:02

him go there and he had an SU7 shipped

8:06

to to Michigan and he drove it for

8:08

several weeks and he's talked about how

8:10

incredible it is.

Interactive Summary

The speaker recounts their recent 10-day, seventh trip to China, focusing on observation and learning beyond common US rhetoric. They toured six cities, rode high-speed trains, visited the Xiaomi factory to see their new SU7 car, and witnessed the immense growth of Shenzhen. The speaker highlights a common misperception of China as a rigid, top-down communist system, arguing instead that intense internal competition among provinces drives significant innovation and efficiency, particularly in sectors like solar, EV, and robotics. They emphasize that this brutal competition leads to highly innovative companies and competitively priced products globally. The speaker also details the entrepreneurial journey of Xiaomi's founder, Le Jun, who, despite no prior experience, built a global smartphone giant and is now successfully entering the EV market with an unconventional, bottom-up design process.

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