What Americans Get Wrong About China — Investor Bill Gurley
208 segments
Let's move on to big topic, big country,
China.
You spent 10 days there over the past
summer. What was your experience? What
did you see? What made an impression?
What did you do?
>> I'd been about six times before, so this
is like my seventh trip. One thing that
was different, my daughter is Asian
studies major, as you were.
>> Yeah. [laughter]
>> And she spent the summer in Hong Kong.
So we picked her up and then we toured
six cities in 10 days. [snorts] And my
objective with this trip, in the past
trips, it was mostly just to meet with
entrepreneurs and founders and mutual
sharing of information, that kind of
thing. This time I was more interested
in just kind of being eyes wide open and
learning. And so we took two of the
highspeed trains, you know, just as an
experience set. I got a tour of the Xiai
factory with their new car, the SU7, and
was trying to get a feel for what's kind
of most recent there. And we, you know,
went to Shenzhen overnight city, which
has gone from, I think, less than
100,000 people in 1980 to 20 million
people just to see the scale and scope
of the whole thing. There's a lot of
rhetoric in the US about what is or
isn't happening in China [snorts] and I
just wanted to have a better feel for it
and and we're making policy decisions
that are going to impact, you know, the
global footprint and god forbid, you
know, end up in a World War II kind of
situation. So anyway, I just wanted a
better understanding. I was aided by the
fact that Dan Wong shared his book
Breakneck with me right before I left
and I read it while I was there which
was interesting and then it came out and
of course it ended up on the bestseller
list but I think China's misperceived in
a lot of ways.
>> What are some of those misperceptions?
The biggest one is that people who have
a rudimentary understanding
of
what is happening there
use this word communism to infer a lot
of other things. And one of the things
that's inferred by communism is top-down
state-run system. and they think they
think of Russia and they assume well
that'll always lead to bad capital
allocation, no innovation because they
have this picture of in their mind of
these brick buildings like with snow all
around them and not much happening.
>> And the reality there is just far far
different from that. I think Dan
[snorts] Wong did a great job of
explaining how the country puts out this
five-year plan, but then the provinces,
which are they're a lot bigger than a US
state, but they're the equivalent, like
it's how the country segmented, they
compete with each other. And [snorts]
the effective mayor of the province, if
he if he does well, has a chance to move
up in the system, which is not a reality
in the US system. But what that leads to
is just a massive amount of competition.
>> What are the metrics by which they're
being judged? Do you have any idea on a
province level?
>> Is it some equivalent of GDP? It's not
the right term, but
>> I'm guessing probably like we could go
talk to AI and get a better answer
[laughter] than I have right now, but
yeah, I would think that's part of it.
Prosperity, employment,
>> those kind of things. By the way, this
provincial competition has also led to
overbuild of buildings. Like, it's not
always positive. You know, bridges that
aren't used,
>> ghost cities.
>> Go cities. Yes. But you end up with
hyper competition. So the I think the
thing that a lot of people in Silicon
Valley love about capitalism is this
notion of the invisible hand and
competition that leads to innovation and
best practice and the winners rise up
and they're better for it. That is
happening there. And if you read about
the solar industry or the EV industry or
now the the robotics industry, they have
hundreds [snorts] of different companies
competing in these fields and it's
brutal competition. And as a result of
that, they're ending up with very
innovative companies, which once again,
I think people wouldn't prescribe to
being possible in [snorts] a communist,
you know, world and remarkable
execution from a industrial standpoint.
So the price points of the products that
that will be sold around the globe are
well below anything that could be done
in the US. How do you go about getting a
tour of Xiaomi factory? I would think
that they would be very closed about
that. What's in it for them? And how do
they
>> I don't know if you saw this going
around the internet yesterday, but they
shipped a car to this YouTuber.
>> Oh, yeah. I saw it.
>> Brilliant. And he did like a 15. That's
the SU7. That's the factory I went to.
As I mentioned, I'd been there before.
So I met Le Jun who's the founder of
Xiai in 2005 when he was chairman of
Joyo which was a e-commerce company that
Amazon bought. So he's been around a
while.
>> Yeah.
>> He has evolved into the best thing I
could say is like he's the Steve Jobs of
China right now.
>> When he quit doing yo-yo and he had this
other company as well, he declared 10
years ago he was going to build a
smartphone. just out of the blue, I'm
going to build a smartphone. He didn't
have any smartphone experience, but Xiai
is now the third largest manufacturer of
handsets in the globe. And about four or
five years ago,
>> at about the exact same time, Apple
hinted they were interested in building
a car. He said, "I'm going to build a
car."
>> Well, not only did he say, "I'm going to
build a car," but that was a response to
sanctions, right? It was an emergency as
I I listened to one of well I listened
to the translation of even though my
Chinese is decent but it's not as good
as it once was his I think it was 2024
>> that's it
>> companywide address where he talked
about the sanctions coming in saying
what if we couldn't make phones what
would we do
>> that talk is unbelievable and it it's
translated on YouTube and I would
encourage people to watch from about
minute 30 to about an hour
which is where he talks about his
process for designing the car. I don't
know if you saw that part. I did.
>> But it's crazy. He says he put a note on
any car in his parking lot that he had
never drove. And he would ask each
employee to give them three positives,
three negatives, and loan him the car.
Said he drove 200 of his employees cars.
When you hear that kind of stuff, you're
like, "Wow, I wonder if anyone at Apple
did that." I mean, it's just such a kind
of bottom up just ground truth way to
start the process. But even still, even
if you did that, like a bunch of people
could do that. How do you have the
wherewithal to build a factory? He'd
never built a factory before. I've been
in other car factories here in the US.
It was phenomenal. Anyway, back to your
question. Why I could get in is I I knew
late June from way back.
>> What does the process look like? Are
there a bunch of clearances and you have
to get the okay from the provincial?
>> I don't think we went through the whole
factory, but no, I mean, they're a
public company. I think they're
interested in
>> being well understood.
>> Yeah.
>> Which I think hints at why they enabled
this. I think they had to send a car to
this guy,
>> the YouTuber.
>> Yeah.
>> And by the way, the president of Ford
went over there about 6 months before I
did. went on the same tour. So, they let
him go there and he had an SU7 shipped
to to Michigan and he drove it for
several weeks and he's talked about how
incredible it is.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The speaker recounts their recent 10-day, seventh trip to China, focusing on observation and learning beyond common US rhetoric. They toured six cities, rode high-speed trains, visited the Xiaomi factory to see their new SU7 car, and witnessed the immense growth of Shenzhen. The speaker highlights a common misperception of China as a rigid, top-down communist system, arguing instead that intense internal competition among provinces drives significant innovation and efficiency, particularly in sectors like solar, EV, and robotics. They emphasize that this brutal competition leads to highly innovative companies and competitively priced products globally. The speaker also details the entrepreneurial journey of Xiaomi's founder, Le Jun, who, despite no prior experience, built a global smartphone giant and is now successfully entering the EV market with an unconventional, bottom-up design process.
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