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CTM Stock Just Spiked 80% - Heating Up With 250M Contract?

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CTM Stock Just Spiked 80% - Heating Up With 250M Contract?

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374 segments

0:00

So, there's a little known defense

0:01

company that recently secured a contract

0:03

of more than $200 million. Yet, the

0:05

entire company still has a market cap of

0:08

around 60 to 70 million. So, what's

0:11

missing in this company? Well, this is

0:13

CTM or company Castellum Inc. They've

0:16

been accelerating their growth through

0:18

cyber security and mission critical

0:20

defense solutions. And they're

0:22

definitely a smaller company and a lot

0:25

of companies aren't getting attention.

0:26

Even the larger small companies aren't

0:29

getting attention because of the SpaceX

0:31

IPO because of some allocation where

0:33

some of the Mag 7 companies have been

0:36

oversold whether it's photonix the space

0:38

tech the data center markets the

0:40

robotics markets the AI markets there's

0:44

a lot of other markets to focus on so

0:46

sometimes these companies just don't get

0:47

attention that's totally fine I've been

0:49

holding this company for over a year now

0:51

and you can watch our coverage on it as

0:53

we started covering it around 70 or 80

0:56

cents a share and I hold it around uh

0:58

87.

1:00

We've seen this stock surge tremendously

1:02

up and down recently in our market open

1:05

session. We were just there yesterday

1:07

and we saw that they were up to $1.32 at

1:10

one point from this 65 range. So the

1:14

volatility is extreme. You see them

1:16

jumping basically 100% in one day. And

1:19

if you ever want to watch our entries

1:20

and exits or join us in those daily live

1:23

trading sessions, we'd love to see you

1:24

there. It's the second link in the

1:26

description below to tune on in. You

1:28

also get a free t-shirt. So, what we're

1:30

watching here with CTM, you know, as

1:32

they have found this support level, what

1:34

seems to be around 60 and some of the

1:36

targets seem to be up here around this

1:38

$130 range, which would be over a 100%

1:42

gain from here. Let's talk about why the

1:44

company is uh not really getting

1:46

attention, but also why they should most

1:48

likely see more attention. Also, we've

1:50

had a tremendous amount of new

1:52

subscribers over the last few months,

1:53

and we've only been doing this for just

1:55

a little bit over a year here on

1:56

YouTube, so I really appreciate you all.

1:58

Make sure to subscribe. Also, I've got

2:00

terrible spring allergies right now, so

2:02

hopefully we're still as consistent as

2:04

we'd like to be. Still looking to get

2:06

the daily uploads out for you all, and I

2:08

appreciate you all. And thanks for

2:10

subscribing to the channel. First of

2:11

all, one of the things that oftentimes I

2:13

believe at least is going to negatively

2:15

contribute to the companies doing well

2:18

is that most investors today, they

2:20

aren't simply looking at the financials.

2:23

That's the reason we see companies like

2:26

Palunteer trade to 121

2:30

price to sales, 121x. Um or you could

2:34

see SpaceX right now trading at around

2:37

95 uh X price to sales. So still on that

2:42

note, SpaceX hasn't really pumped to

2:44

levels of the Unicorn Palunteer that we

2:47

saw in 2025. But this company is not

2:50

really comparable to Palanteer. It's not

2:52

really comparable to major defense

2:55

companies. I believe I'm going to have

2:56

the ability to talk with the CEO fairly

2:59

soon and we're going to get some more

3:00

insight into this company. And while

3:02

their site isn't very nice, there are

3:05

some things that have been very solid.

3:07

And that's what we're going to look at

3:08

here, which is their actual integrity of

3:10

their news and their financials. So,

3:13

there's three steps we go through when

3:16

analyzing a good or bad deal in the

3:18

stock market. We go through the market,

3:20

we go through the analysis, and then the

3:22

profit potential or the riskto-reward if

3:24

it even makes sense to do the deal. When

3:26

we're looking at Castell Inc., we can

3:28

start with the market. They're in the

3:29

cyber security market. They do work with

3:31

the Gentic AI. They seem to be working

3:34

primarily with the Navy. They have some

3:37

um defense contracts and they just

3:39

recently signed this new um max

3:44

structure or MAC multiple award contract

3:47

that is part of the IDIQ

3:50

which is essentially contracts that may

3:52

or may not have any ceiling value but

3:54

they're projecting the total maximum

3:57

value of this recent contract to be at

4:00

$250

4:02

million.

4:03

And in this contract, it says they

4:05

announced it's a joint venture between

4:08

CTM and logistics IT integration and

4:12

support. In general, when we're looking

4:13

at this uh this deal here, I'm not sure

4:16

the entirety of the contract of how much

4:18

they'll fully end up netting from this

4:21

deal, but you can see the president CEO

4:24

there, Glenn Ives, said securing a

4:27

position on a vehicle deepens our

4:28

already strong relationship with the

4:30

United States Navy and adds a multi-year

4:33

pipeline of task orders. It seems like

4:35

this is minimum going to be a couple

4:37

hundred million or at least hundred

4:39

million for them. So when we look at the

4:42

other deals that they've actually

4:43

secured. So market of defense, there's a

4:46

lot of money, more money than we could

4:48

even expect uh being sent out into this

4:51

defense market. They recently signed a

4:53

$50 million deal back in January. If you

4:56

go to 2025

4:59

um before January into uh December, they

5:03

had some deals. They got a $66 million

5:06

deal there in October. So, their current

5:09

pipeline, there's there's a few other

5:10

ones. They signed a $160 million deal

5:13

earlier than that and some other smaller

5:16

deals or $103 million there. And so,

5:19

overall, they have nearly $300 million

5:23

in their contracts that they've recently

5:26

signed related to defense. And so one

5:30

thing, you know, while their site isn't

5:32

maybe the most prettiest and um you

5:35

know, you don't see anything super

5:36

flashy on their site, they are seeing

5:38

demand from the government and they're

5:40

also seeing a tremendous amount of

5:42

capital coming in. So what does that

5:44

mean in the future? Well, if we take a

5:46

look at prophecy, prophecy is what we

5:48

developed as a tool for you to use the

5:50

top AI models in the world paired with

5:53

the best financial data in the world to

5:55

see projections on any stocks. So, I'm

5:58

going to go view in here and I'm going

6:00

to search up uh CTM right now. Let's get

6:02

a look at what's going on. We're going

6:04

to go into the multimodel view and I'm

6:07

going to look at the financials here.

6:08

So, if you look at the balance sheet

6:10

annually, they have seen their

6:13

liabilities drop significantly. They at

6:16

one point were around 17 or 18 million

6:19

in liabilities, but towards this last

6:22

quarter, they've dropped their

6:23

liabilities to now just 5.6 6 million

6:27

while their assets have actually

6:29

continued to rally and their assets are

6:31

now as of the last quarter up to about

6:34

$41 million. And you can see they're

6:36

even cutting down their liabilities.

6:38

They um sold some of the assets, they

6:40

dropped some of their liabilities, but

6:42

in general they're sitting with about

6:44

six um or 36 million in equity. So 36

6:49

million in equity. Their income right

6:52

now is at around $15 million per

6:55

quarter. Sometimes positive net income,

6:58

sometimes negative, but it's hovering

7:00

right around even. And their revenue per

7:03

year seems to be on track to be around

7:05

about $60 million for 2026 or more. Now,

7:10

that's just comparing to previous years,

7:13

but with these recent deals, we've never

7:15

seen them come out with these types of

7:17

deals where they have hundreds of

7:19

millions of dollars. now and 250 million

7:22

as of yesterday to be able to to see

7:26

their financials potentially do much

7:28

much better than that. You see, if

7:29

they're have these three and fiveyear

7:31

deals that are uh over 300 million,

7:35

their income statement, most likely we

7:37

would see their revenues jump to, you

7:39

know, 300 million a year or or um maybe

7:43

less than that. might be uh 150 million

7:46

or 100 million a year would still be

7:50

drastically about 40% higher than where

7:52

they're currently at. But with that,

7:54

their revenue is operating if they're

7:56

doing 60 million plus their 36 million

7:59

in equity. I mean, they're technically

8:01

already over $und00 million between

8:03

their assets and their uh income, which

8:07

by the principles of Benjamin Graham,

8:10

who is the uh mentor or was the mentor

8:13

for Warren Buffett was their main focus

8:16

is that uh his main thing is are their

8:20

liabilities less than their assets and

8:22

that their assets are when combined with

8:25

the annual revenues uh greater than that

8:28

of their current market cap. And if

8:30

that's the case, then they look like an

8:32

undervalued company. And so if you look

8:34

at CTM right now, uh they have only a

8:37

$67 million market cap. That's tiny. In

8:40

fact, a lot of projections here from a

8:43

lot of these models, which these models

8:45

vary widely. They're not all going to be

8:48

projecting the same, but based on the

8:50

next year, there isn't really any models

8:52

that aren't bullish into the next year

8:55

given their fundamentals considering

8:57

that they should be over a dollar a

8:58

share or more. And it's pretty volatile

9:01

into some of the time frames into the

9:04

next day or so because it's just a

9:06

really volatile stock. And I would urge

9:09

caution on anybody watching this because

9:11

again it's such a small market cap that

9:14

even if this thing were to sure you know

9:16

institutions they put $und00 million

9:19

into something that's chump change there

9:20

could be a billion dollars that were to

9:23

influx this thing would like 20x. Um but

9:27

if you had let's say even a $5 million

9:30

sale right now you know that's going to

9:31

be uh like an 8% drop. So you have a lot

9:35

of uh Vanguard has been investing in

9:39

them. Uh you do have the total shares

9:42

slightly more bearish into the last

9:44

quarter on the insiders when looking at

9:47

the COO and then CEO here. They're

9:50

slightly bearish as well. Um or the

9:53

insiders are slightly bearish. The

9:56

institutions are not massively bearish,

9:58

but you do see a few insider sells uh

10:01

and institutional cells. But then

10:03

recently, most recently, you got

10:05

Vanguard buying. Um, it seems that there

10:08

has been some buys from Vanguard along

10:11

with Edward Jones and Bank of America

10:15

purchasing shares. So, you know, as

10:17

they're approaching the 70 cent support

10:20

level that they're at right now, there's

10:22

a very strong kind of level where

10:24

they're looking to find support around

10:26

the $65 range with targets up into that

10:29

$140 range, which again is about a 100%

10:33

increase. But with those things in mind,

10:35

you know, you have tremendous

10:36

volatility. It might even look crazy to

10:38

see them surge from that 25 level to up

10:42

to $2.80 80 cents that we saw back here

10:45

in 2025 in January. But believe it or

10:48

not, in those moves, you're actually

10:50

only looking at around $200 million

10:53

market cap in change. That is not a very

10:56

big move for this company at all um from

11:00

a investment standpoint. So my point is

11:03

is that if you were to look at the

11:04

financials only, it looks like it's very

11:07

undervalued. And if you were to look at

11:09

their income and their balance sheet

11:11

looking very healthy with more assets

11:13

than liabilities, it looks healthy as

11:15

well. And their current market cap is

11:18

very low. Now, I do hold this company. I

11:20

hold around 87 cents. So, I'm currently

11:22

down slightly, although it did touch

11:24

those levels in the last day. I'm

11:26

looking for this move up to about $1.40.

11:30

So, as we went through the market that

11:32

they're in, a lot of spending and

11:34

defense, get into the analysis. Again,

11:36

you're looking at the technicals where

11:37

you got this support level here around

11:39

about 60 cents with near support at 70.

11:43

And then you look at the financials.

11:45

Financials indicate that the company is

11:48

oversold. And the current technicals, if

11:52

you were to look at this uh chart as

11:53

well, you know, seems that there is some

11:56

bearish momentum as it pushed below that

11:58

200 day moving average, but so did most

12:00

stocks in the defense market. You look

12:02

at Palance here, you they've sold off in

12:04

the same degree from $27 a share to now

12:09

down to $130 bucks a share. If you look

12:12

at companies like Big Bear AI, they were

12:15

up to $9 and they are now down to about

12:18

$4 a share. And so most defense

12:20

companies have recently sold down,

12:22

although there's been more spending. And

12:24

I believe we're going to see the defense

12:26

financials surprise over the next few

12:29

quarters as it's been right in front of

12:31

us that all of them seem to be getting

12:33

more contracts with the exception of Big

12:35

Bear. Didn't see too many contracts

12:36

there. So when it comes to CTM again the

12:40

riskto-reward if you're looking at this

12:42

level here short-term trade you know I

12:44

would advise anybody that is going to be

12:47

uh taking trades to uh simply exercise

12:50

caution and I wouldn't encourage you to

12:53

buy or sell but I would encourage you to

12:55

if you're taking any short-term trades

12:57

just to exercise extra caution um as

13:00

anybody would say that is in their right

13:03

mind looking at the stock as they are at

13:05

only $67 million market cap. The cool

13:08

part about this stock is that the market

13:11

cap is almost always the same as their

13:13

cents. So, if they're 88 cents, they're

13:16

right around $88 million market cap.

13:18

It's kind of a cool um thing that

13:20

happens with this company. But if you

13:22

look at them currently, again, targets

13:23

up there 90% upside. That's why I

13:25

continue to hold them. If you get into

13:27

any short-term trades, the riskto-reward

13:30

again watching that near support around

13:32

65 and 70. They break below there uh

13:36

into below 60. Things do not look good.

13:38

That would be a 12% sellown. If they

13:41

look more bullish, they're going to

13:42

break above about 80 cents and hold

13:44

above 80 with the next target up to

13:46

about $1.35,

13:48

which again is barely any influx of

13:51

capital. You're not looking at very much

13:53

capital to make these moves. Even a

13:55

couple hundred million would put this

13:56

stock into two to three to $5 a share.

14:00

And again, I'm not here to pump it or

14:02

anything like that. I'm just sharing

14:03

with you guys how I kind of view the

14:05

stock and why I continue to hold it.

14:07

It's cuz they have really good integrity

14:08

on the financials and they continue to

14:10

be extremely low price. And I might even

14:13

consider buying some more if they hang

14:16

out around this price for too much

14:17

longer. The only other stocks that I'm

14:20

buying right now is in the photonix

14:21

market, the data center companies, and

14:23

then allocating more into some of the

14:25

space tech, and haven't bought quantum

14:27

lately, but will be watching there. If

14:29

you want to stay up to date with the top

14:30

AI markets, semiconductors, robotics as

14:33

well, make sure to subscribe if you want

14:35

to tune on in and you'd like to see if

14:36

the opportunity presents itself to trade

14:38

this stock at market open. Would love to

14:40

see you there at 6:30 a.m. Pacific

14:43

Standard Time. We're there every day,

14:45

Monday through Friday. So, it is early,

14:47

but if you would like to join us there,

14:49

watch my entries and my exits, it's

14:51

going to be the second link in the

14:52

description below to tune on in. Fired

14:55

your thumbs up, hit the like button, do

14:56

consider subscribing, and I'll see you

14:58

in the next video. Take care.

Interactive Summary

The video provides an in-depth analysis of Castellum Inc. (CTM), a small-cap defense company currently valued around $67 million, despite recently securing contracts worth over $200 million. The speaker discusses the company's involvement in cybersecurity and mission-critical defense solutions, noting that it remains largely overlooked by the market. The analysis covers the company's strong balance sheet, improving financials, and the significant risk-reward potential due to its extreme stock volatility. While the speaker personally holds the stock and remains optimistic about its long-term growth and technical targets, they emphasize the importance of exercising caution given the company's small market capitalization.

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