CTM Stock Just Spiked 80% - Heating Up With 250M Contract?
374 segments
So, there's a little known defense
company that recently secured a contract
of more than $200 million. Yet, the
entire company still has a market cap of
around 60 to 70 million. So, what's
missing in this company? Well, this is
CTM or company Castellum Inc. They've
been accelerating their growth through
cyber security and mission critical
defense solutions. And they're
definitely a smaller company and a lot
of companies aren't getting attention.
Even the larger small companies aren't
getting attention because of the SpaceX
IPO because of some allocation where
some of the Mag 7 companies have been
oversold whether it's photonix the space
tech the data center markets the
robotics markets the AI markets there's
a lot of other markets to focus on so
sometimes these companies just don't get
attention that's totally fine I've been
holding this company for over a year now
and you can watch our coverage on it as
we started covering it around 70 or 80
cents a share and I hold it around uh
87.
We've seen this stock surge tremendously
up and down recently in our market open
session. We were just there yesterday
and we saw that they were up to $1.32 at
one point from this 65 range. So the
volatility is extreme. You see them
jumping basically 100% in one day. And
if you ever want to watch our entries
and exits or join us in those daily live
trading sessions, we'd love to see you
there. It's the second link in the
description below to tune on in. You
also get a free t-shirt. So, what we're
watching here with CTM, you know, as
they have found this support level, what
seems to be around 60 and some of the
targets seem to be up here around this
$130 range, which would be over a 100%
gain from here. Let's talk about why the
company is uh not really getting
attention, but also why they should most
likely see more attention. Also, we've
had a tremendous amount of new
subscribers over the last few months,
and we've only been doing this for just
a little bit over a year here on
YouTube, so I really appreciate you all.
Make sure to subscribe. Also, I've got
terrible spring allergies right now, so
hopefully we're still as consistent as
we'd like to be. Still looking to get
the daily uploads out for you all, and I
appreciate you all. And thanks for
subscribing to the channel. First of
all, one of the things that oftentimes I
believe at least is going to negatively
contribute to the companies doing well
is that most investors today, they
aren't simply looking at the financials.
That's the reason we see companies like
Palunteer trade to 121
price to sales, 121x. Um or you could
see SpaceX right now trading at around
95 uh X price to sales. So still on that
note, SpaceX hasn't really pumped to
levels of the Unicorn Palunteer that we
saw in 2025. But this company is not
really comparable to Palanteer. It's not
really comparable to major defense
companies. I believe I'm going to have
the ability to talk with the CEO fairly
soon and we're going to get some more
insight into this company. And while
their site isn't very nice, there are
some things that have been very solid.
And that's what we're going to look at
here, which is their actual integrity of
their news and their financials. So,
there's three steps we go through when
analyzing a good or bad deal in the
stock market. We go through the market,
we go through the analysis, and then the
profit potential or the riskto-reward if
it even makes sense to do the deal. When
we're looking at Castell Inc., we can
start with the market. They're in the
cyber security market. They do work with
the Gentic AI. They seem to be working
primarily with the Navy. They have some
um defense contracts and they just
recently signed this new um max
structure or MAC multiple award contract
that is part of the IDIQ
which is essentially contracts that may
or may not have any ceiling value but
they're projecting the total maximum
value of this recent contract to be at
$250
million.
And in this contract, it says they
announced it's a joint venture between
CTM and logistics IT integration and
support. In general, when we're looking
at this uh this deal here, I'm not sure
the entirety of the contract of how much
they'll fully end up netting from this
deal, but you can see the president CEO
there, Glenn Ives, said securing a
position on a vehicle deepens our
already strong relationship with the
United States Navy and adds a multi-year
pipeline of task orders. It seems like
this is minimum going to be a couple
hundred million or at least hundred
million for them. So when we look at the
other deals that they've actually
secured. So market of defense, there's a
lot of money, more money than we could
even expect uh being sent out into this
defense market. They recently signed a
$50 million deal back in January. If you
go to 2025
um before January into uh December, they
had some deals. They got a $66 million
deal there in October. So, their current
pipeline, there's there's a few other
ones. They signed a $160 million deal
earlier than that and some other smaller
deals or $103 million there. And so,
overall, they have nearly $300 million
in their contracts that they've recently
signed related to defense. And so one
thing, you know, while their site isn't
maybe the most prettiest and um you
know, you don't see anything super
flashy on their site, they are seeing
demand from the government and they're
also seeing a tremendous amount of
capital coming in. So what does that
mean in the future? Well, if we take a
look at prophecy, prophecy is what we
developed as a tool for you to use the
top AI models in the world paired with
the best financial data in the world to
see projections on any stocks. So, I'm
going to go view in here and I'm going
to search up uh CTM right now. Let's get
a look at what's going on. We're going
to go into the multimodel view and I'm
going to look at the financials here.
So, if you look at the balance sheet
annually, they have seen their
liabilities drop significantly. They at
one point were around 17 or 18 million
in liabilities, but towards this last
quarter, they've dropped their
liabilities to now just 5.6 6 million
while their assets have actually
continued to rally and their assets are
now as of the last quarter up to about
$41 million. And you can see they're
even cutting down their liabilities.
They um sold some of the assets, they
dropped some of their liabilities, but
in general they're sitting with about
six um or 36 million in equity. So 36
million in equity. Their income right
now is at around $15 million per
quarter. Sometimes positive net income,
sometimes negative, but it's hovering
right around even. And their revenue per
year seems to be on track to be around
about $60 million for 2026 or more. Now,
that's just comparing to previous years,
but with these recent deals, we've never
seen them come out with these types of
deals where they have hundreds of
millions of dollars. now and 250 million
as of yesterday to be able to to see
their financials potentially do much
much better than that. You see, if
they're have these three and fiveyear
deals that are uh over 300 million,
their income statement, most likely we
would see their revenues jump to, you
know, 300 million a year or or um maybe
less than that. might be uh 150 million
or 100 million a year would still be
drastically about 40% higher than where
they're currently at. But with that,
their revenue is operating if they're
doing 60 million plus their 36 million
in equity. I mean, they're technically
already over $und00 million between
their assets and their uh income, which
by the principles of Benjamin Graham,
who is the uh mentor or was the mentor
for Warren Buffett was their main focus
is that uh his main thing is are their
liabilities less than their assets and
that their assets are when combined with
the annual revenues uh greater than that
of their current market cap. And if
that's the case, then they look like an
undervalued company. And so if you look
at CTM right now, uh they have only a
$67 million market cap. That's tiny. In
fact, a lot of projections here from a
lot of these models, which these models
vary widely. They're not all going to be
projecting the same, but based on the
next year, there isn't really any models
that aren't bullish into the next year
given their fundamentals considering
that they should be over a dollar a
share or more. And it's pretty volatile
into some of the time frames into the
next day or so because it's just a
really volatile stock. And I would urge
caution on anybody watching this because
again it's such a small market cap that
even if this thing were to sure you know
institutions they put $und00 million
into something that's chump change there
could be a billion dollars that were to
influx this thing would like 20x. Um but
if you had let's say even a $5 million
sale right now you know that's going to
be uh like an 8% drop. So you have a lot
of uh Vanguard has been investing in
them. Uh you do have the total shares
slightly more bearish into the last
quarter on the insiders when looking at
the COO and then CEO here. They're
slightly bearish as well. Um or the
insiders are slightly bearish. The
institutions are not massively bearish,
but you do see a few insider sells uh
and institutional cells. But then
recently, most recently, you got
Vanguard buying. Um, it seems that there
has been some buys from Vanguard along
with Edward Jones and Bank of America
purchasing shares. So, you know, as
they're approaching the 70 cent support
level that they're at right now, there's
a very strong kind of level where
they're looking to find support around
the $65 range with targets up into that
$140 range, which again is about a 100%
increase. But with those things in mind,
you know, you have tremendous
volatility. It might even look crazy to
see them surge from that 25 level to up
to $2.80 80 cents that we saw back here
in 2025 in January. But believe it or
not, in those moves, you're actually
only looking at around $200 million
market cap in change. That is not a very
big move for this company at all um from
a investment standpoint. So my point is
is that if you were to look at the
financials only, it looks like it's very
undervalued. And if you were to look at
their income and their balance sheet
looking very healthy with more assets
than liabilities, it looks healthy as
well. And their current market cap is
very low. Now, I do hold this company. I
hold around 87 cents. So, I'm currently
down slightly, although it did touch
those levels in the last day. I'm
looking for this move up to about $1.40.
So, as we went through the market that
they're in, a lot of spending and
defense, get into the analysis. Again,
you're looking at the technicals where
you got this support level here around
about 60 cents with near support at 70.
And then you look at the financials.
Financials indicate that the company is
oversold. And the current technicals, if
you were to look at this uh chart as
well, you know, seems that there is some
bearish momentum as it pushed below that
200 day moving average, but so did most
stocks in the defense market. You look
at Palance here, you they've sold off in
the same degree from $27 a share to now
down to $130 bucks a share. If you look
at companies like Big Bear AI, they were
up to $9 and they are now down to about
$4 a share. And so most defense
companies have recently sold down,
although there's been more spending. And
I believe we're going to see the defense
financials surprise over the next few
quarters as it's been right in front of
us that all of them seem to be getting
more contracts with the exception of Big
Bear. Didn't see too many contracts
there. So when it comes to CTM again the
riskto-reward if you're looking at this
level here short-term trade you know I
would advise anybody that is going to be
uh taking trades to uh simply exercise
caution and I wouldn't encourage you to
buy or sell but I would encourage you to
if you're taking any short-term trades
just to exercise extra caution um as
anybody would say that is in their right
mind looking at the stock as they are at
only $67 million market cap. The cool
part about this stock is that the market
cap is almost always the same as their
cents. So, if they're 88 cents, they're
right around $88 million market cap.
It's kind of a cool um thing that
happens with this company. But if you
look at them currently, again, targets
up there 90% upside. That's why I
continue to hold them. If you get into
any short-term trades, the riskto-reward
again watching that near support around
65 and 70. They break below there uh
into below 60. Things do not look good.
That would be a 12% sellown. If they
look more bullish, they're going to
break above about 80 cents and hold
above 80 with the next target up to
about $1.35,
which again is barely any influx of
capital. You're not looking at very much
capital to make these moves. Even a
couple hundred million would put this
stock into two to three to $5 a share.
And again, I'm not here to pump it or
anything like that. I'm just sharing
with you guys how I kind of view the
stock and why I continue to hold it.
It's cuz they have really good integrity
on the financials and they continue to
be extremely low price. And I might even
consider buying some more if they hang
out around this price for too much
longer. The only other stocks that I'm
buying right now is in the photonix
market, the data center companies, and
then allocating more into some of the
space tech, and haven't bought quantum
lately, but will be watching there. If
you want to stay up to date with the top
AI markets, semiconductors, robotics as
well, make sure to subscribe if you want
to tune on in and you'd like to see if
the opportunity presents itself to trade
this stock at market open. Would love to
see you there at 6:30 a.m. Pacific
Standard Time. We're there every day,
Monday through Friday. So, it is early,
but if you would like to join us there,
watch my entries and my exits, it's
going to be the second link in the
description below to tune on in. Fired
your thumbs up, hit the like button, do
consider subscribing, and I'll see you
in the next video. Take care.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video provides an in-depth analysis of Castellum Inc. (CTM), a small-cap defense company currently valued around $67 million, despite recently securing contracts worth over $200 million. The speaker discusses the company's involvement in cybersecurity and mission-critical defense solutions, noting that it remains largely overlooked by the market. The analysis covers the company's strong balance sheet, improving financials, and the significant risk-reward potential due to its extreme stock volatility. While the speaker personally holds the stock and remains optimistic about its long-term growth and technical targets, they emphasize the importance of exercising caution given the company's small market capitalization.
Videos recently processed by our community