So, Redwire stock or RDW just broke a

critical support level and the

short-term traders definitely are going

to want to pay attention because guys,

this is a short-term caution, long-term,

not killer of thesis, but a setup that

you're going to want to watch. Momentum

traders potentially could be in a tough

spot as things are getting shaken out

here. And the question isn't whether Red

Wire's fundamentals have changed. Things

are looking good there, but it's the

chart, it's the momentum, it's also how

things have been reacting as the SpaceX

IPO launched this last week. And let's

talk about whether this is a buying

opportunity or not and jump into the

full breakdown for Red Wire. So, the

first thing that we have here is we're

looking for a potential support level

around this $15 level. But that if they

did break below, we'd be looking at a

much more bearish scenario where you get

this continued trend downward and you

get the next levels or targets down to

that uh $12 range. We've been talking

about this stock stabilizing around $12

a share because back here over the last

year, year and a half we've been

covering this one. We've seen it as low

as five, six bucks a share and we've

seen it as high as $26 a share,

especially recently. And we've been

really assessing the fair value to be

between $12 and $15 a share. As it's

made that run up to 26 bucks and we see

it sell down to now 1373, that reality

of seeing it between that 12 to $15 a

share makes a lot of sense. And there's

one reason that I believe the stock is

selling down. That reason is the SpaceX

IPO. I don't know if you guys saw but

almost every space stock sold off when

SpaceX was up and now as after hours

some of the stocks are doing well.

SpaceX is selling off. Now I personally

bought SpaceX at IPO and it's been good

so far but there's some things that have

been shifting and it's definitely

disrupting this entire space tech

market. Number one, you could look at

SpaceX entering and passing Amazon.

SpaceX just passed Amazon. And again,

Redwire is one of the top companies in

the defense markets that specializes in

the Aremis 2 missions in missile defense

in the global um Golden Dome. And they

also are heavily influenced or or

heavily um involved in the uh the

defense markets. However, they're a

space company as well. They're kind of

in that same uh conversation as a

company like uh you know, Black Sky who

does AI surveillance of down on Earth or

maybe Rocket Lab and that they have

their launches and they do end toend uh

space technology or even AS they're in

the similar kind of conversation. This

type of infrastructure up in space,

they're doing the 5G. The A is doing the

5G technology um for cellular broadband

down on Earth, but Redwire is focused

heavily on the infrastructure for all

power across orbits and they're working

with NASA on some very big missions and

the Golden Dome for America. Uh deals

have been very large for them. And so

the reason I bring up SpaceX in this

conversation, if you look at what just

happened, SpaceX surges past Amazon to a

$2.66 trillion valuation. So we now have

seen them add about a trillion

uh since IPO. If you look at the um the

reality, if you were to just go over to

Prophecy, for example, and search

Amazon, let's just search Amazon real

quick. Amazon on a quarterly basis in

income at least last uh quarter came in

with $151

billion.

Okay, if we were to look at SP um CX

here, SpaceX, so we're comparing a $4.7

billion income statement. I mean, you

have to you can assess the the

bullishness of space technology and not

betting against Elon and but then you

have these walls where you do have to

acknowledge the fact that for example

the revenue is at 4.7 billion on SpaceX.

They're at a $2.66 trillion valuation

where whereas they just passed Amazon

who has 2.65 65 trillion, but they're

actually doing $181 billion per quarter.

When we're looking at the comparison,

you know, SpaceX is starting to look

really I'm a buyer of it. It's great,

but it is looking like it's surged up to

$230 at one point earlier today. And so,

as this happens, you start to see, okay,

what if we get a big pullback in SpaceX?

Does that mean that the space tech

market's going to go up? Probably not.

First, we saw a lot of allocation out of

Space Tech in order to buy SpaceX. And

after the fact of this huge amount of

capital coming into SpaceX, now you're

going to have valuations be assessed.

You're going to, you know, you see it

already starting to maybe get rejected

here and we could see some potential

bigger pullbacks. What happens after

that? Well, you you now got to look at

the impacts and say, "Oh, does that mean

things are going to go well? Everybody's

going to sell their SpaceX and they're

going to put it back in the space tech

market." I wouldn't be so sure. I think

just from a psychological perspective

looking at Redwire for example again as

they are approaching their fair value

which is where I've kind of believed

them to be at 12 to 15 bucks a share um

if there's selloffs in SpaceX we're most

likely in my eyes going to be seeing

data centers as the main company to be

looking at semiconductors getting back

into MAG 7 like Nvidia for example I

think robotics is not even run up and

it's been fairly neglected Even Quantum

had a really nice day the other day and

now they're kind of holding at some

levels that um you know they've been a

little quiet over the last few months.

And so if you're looking at the top

markets where people are going to

allocate into, it's possible that this

this big surge on red wire up to $28, it

could be a while before we see those

levels again. And so the reason why I

say that is not because, you know, um

I'm a bear on the stock, but I hold this

stock personally and I've held it up to

$28 before. It's not the first time.

I've held it up to those levels in the

past up here. Started covering it back

in 2024 even. And so I've seen it up to

26. I've seen it down to four. I've seen

it up to 28 just recently. And we're now

at 13. And I'm just going to continue to

hold this one. I think it's a really

great long-term play. If you look at

Redwire from a perspective of their

their revenues and some of their new

contracts that they've recently signed,

they're looking fairly favorable as

they've got the integrity of the US

government spending. That's a big one

where you just see huge influx into

space tech markets and missile defense.

And they have seen a lot of contracts as

a result, including a $151 billion deal

that they're a part of. There's some

other smaller $20 million deals. There

was another $2.6 billion deal they're a

part of. There's that 20 million deal.

And the reality is is that their market

cap is still fairly low. They're in a

good spot. And it's possible you get

that short-term pullback and then

everything starts to rally more in the

space tech market. But just realizing

that SpaceX is at an all-time high. It's

riding the hype right now. Looking at

Prophecy, I was seeing some negative

projections on Redwire into the next few

days and weeks. And I see that their

financials look good. $3.7 billion

market cap is not too bad when you're

doing $100 million per quarter and you

have assets of over 1.5 billion with

your declining liabilities, which is

excellent. Institutions are bullish on

Red Wire. They continue to buy. Insiders

are a little bit different. I don't know

that we were completely bullish on the

insider activity. We can see here looks

bearish actually. You had some insiders

selling as of recently into June here,

but institutions still net buying for

the most part. And then you've got um

the valuation's fair. I don't think

we're in a position where targeting uh

continually up into, you know, we were

saying 25 could be the target when we

were down around 18 20 bucks a share

because of the momentum and anticipation

leading up to the SpaceX IPO. But if you

look at any of the videos that we went

over, it's the psychology of the

anticipation. People buy things on

Amazon or they buy things on, you know,

eBay or wherever you're buying stuff

online nowadays. Lululemon or maybe

you're buying wherever you are buying

the anticipation of the thing more than

the actual thing itself. People pay and

their desire has scientifically been

proven to be more than majority of that

desire has been fulfilled by them

purchasing the order. the anticipation

of getting it. They don't actually get

the full satisfaction of getting in the

mail, receiving it, taking out of the

package as much as they did in actually

purchasing it. And so that's what we see

here time and time again with a lot of

IPOs. We see it with the Space Tech

market where, you know, a lot of

anticipation for SpaceX IPO. All the

stocks continue to rally and rally all

the way up to the day of the IPO and

then you get a little pullback ahead of

it and then a break in pattern. we see

some sell-offs in most of the space tech

market after the SpaceX IPO. So, the

anticipation was the big bull move and

then now we see this recovery potential,

but for the most part, you're still

looking at those uh post IPO selloffs

and that's what we're seeing currently.

So, how severe could this be? Especially

with Red Wire, you got that previous

resistance here at $15 a share uh or $12

a share where they could potentially

find a support here. We saw them find

support back in May at around this

level, 13 bucks a share. They're down to

13 now and you could see that level. But

what you most likely, even if we do get

that reversal, let's say on the short

term with red wire, you still have this

downtrend, the lowering resistance here

where it's getting sold off and sold

off. And you can see that the lower

highs right there. And then you have

lowering support, the lower lows here,

finding um no support there, continually

to continually breaking down. And then

you have this potential support here.

But what we could see is that

continuation of trend even further down.

And that's where you get to see those

sellowns into, you know, 10 bucks a

share. Wouldn't like to see that, of

course. In fact, again, I'm anticipating

they stabilize in these ranges of around

12 to 15. That's where they should be

from a financial perspective. And we'll

see though as the whole market is really

volatile and we've said the short-term

caution is important in the short term.

I think, you know, we will see red wire

into the next year or two have those

targets back into those $20 ranges, if

not higher. I would imagine that in the

longer term time frames, Red Wire being

a 20 to30 to $40 stock would make a lot

of sense given their growth financially

and the contracts that they're seeing

and the the market they're in, it's just

a very fast growing market. So, they

look good in that regard. But anybody

trading them on a short-term trade

looking to make money in a day or in a

just a few few days or a week, you got

to have this risk management. Realize

that they are in a downtrend. they are

selling down. And while the SpaceX IPO,

the anticipation was the big driver

before, now that it's happened, it may

not be as sunshines and rainbows as

people would anticipate. It's just going

to go continue to continue um up into

new highs. So just keeping in mind the

fair value of the financials is one

thing, but then also realizing that

there could be more market um uh

volatility with the Fed and with the new

announcements from SpaceX as they just

acquired Cursor. It's pretty obvious

that if SpaceX is merging with XAI,

they're acquiring Cursor today, which is

one of the top companies that I've

personally probably paid tens of

thousands of dollars as we've used them

quite a bit for building on our team at

Prophecy. The Cursor SP

CX acquisition, it was a $60 billion

deal and they now acquired Cursor.

Cursor is a company that allows you to

essentially use top AI models to code

for you. Similar to how Prophecy kind of

works where you can use top AI models to

get projections on stocks for you and do

the analysis for you and you can build

kind of your financial view and your

financial machine and cursor just got

acquired for 60 billion. So what does

that mean? Well, SpaceX is obviously

leaning heavy towards the AI, towards

the software, and while SpaceX is one

play, I think Elon knows the revenue

alone from Starlink or what have you

isn't going to sustain a $2.66 trillion

valuation. They need AI companies like

Cursor. They need XAI to be a part of

it, which they recently merged, and

possibly possibly even some sort of

merger that ties together with Tesla.

It's possible that that will be a case

as well. So, we'll be watching there.

And we do have long-term positions on

Redwire, but short-term volatility is

key to watch now as it continues to sell

down with a possible support at $13. So

looking at prophecy, the nearest support

is at 1287 with nearest resistance at

1350. It's currently right there around

that $1350 mark. So if you see it break

back above uh 1375, $14, you could see

that breakout. If it breaks above $15 a

share, then we start to see a potential

recovery and continuation. But we will

potentially be trading it at market open

if the opportunity presents itself. If

you would like to tune on in and join

our market sessions, it's the second

link in the description below. We've got

a huge sale there. It's not getting any

better than this. If you want to tune on

in at market open, watch my entries and

my exits, then again, just simply take a

look at the second link in the

description below. If I thumbs up, hit

the like button. Do consider subscribing

and I'll see you in the next one. Take

care.