Oil stocks are falling and defense

stocks are rallying and red wire seems

to be moving in the opposite direction.

So what's the market missing right now?

We did see some momentum into today.

We're seeing some shifting geopolitical

headlines as we reach a peace deal over

in Iran and we're seeing some pullbacks

in the space tech market. If we take a

look at uh Iran war, you can see red

wire while it's been under pressure and

a lot of space stock sold off. There's

an Iran peace deal that has now been met

and they reached an agreement that

includes opening the straight of Hormuz.

So, we're going to see some broader

impacts. It's interesting because about

3 months ago when we made a video about

straightup horm uh closing the market

proceeded to have its largest rally of

history and we see red wire, you know,

selling down. You saw uh Rocket Lab

selling down, all the space tech market

selling down. There's a lot of investors

that are looking at this and saying,

"Hey, you see this big selldown. This

might be one of the opportunities that

we're looking at here for this year in

the space sector, broader market defense

and space sectors uh might be seeing a

little bit of a shift in the thesis

where you're not having such a a big

urgency for deals from defense and

spending. But whether it's AI stocks,

infrastructure stocks, photonic stocks,

data center companies, quantum

companies, there is a lot to keep up

with. And staying up todate with every

single one of them can be nearly

impossible. And that's exactly why we

built this prophecy AI. It allows you to

use the most latest models in the world

with the best financial data in the

world to see the best projections on the

companies. And I attribute that it would

not have been possible for me to see

over 10 positions in the last two

quarters with over 100% returns if we

were not using prophecy here. If you'd

like my help building a similar system

for your portfolio, you can use the

first link down below to work with me

directly. And if you'd like to access

this Prophecy AI and our AI stock

research tools, use the third link below

to get access. Let's get into it. So

with Redwire, you got some projections.

Some are negative. Most of them are

positive. Into the next month here, we

see mostly bullishness. You're looking

into the next day or so, you're seeing

some bullishness into market open

tomorrow. We're looking at potentially

some sell-offs uh into the market open

session. And then you got the balance

sheets in the financials. So, we're

going to break this down into three

steps to just give a full analysis on

red wire. I call this my map strategy.

It goes over the market. It goes over

the analysis and the profit potential

and we're going to go through each step

individually. Now, first you have the

market with this Iran war. You're

looking at a lot of different things to

focus on. Okay, you have uh the peace

deal, sure, but then you have defense

contracts might not be in as much

demand. You see US and Iran agree to

cease hostilities straight of Hormuse

opening for crucial waterway for oil

transportation. But as we start to uh

look at the macro big IPO, greatest IPO

in history on SpaceX on Friday, the

SpaceX stock did very well. It added

about 300 billion. We see them add uh

currently another couple hundred billion

this uh after hours session as we see

them rally up slightly to $167. And

during that time, we saw almost all

space stocks sell off on Friday. And

most space stocks have been selling off

since about end of May until today. And

we're looking at a moment where the

market has dipped about 40% from

all-time highs. You can see Red Wire was

at 28, they're now at 15. You look at

Rocket Lab, they were just recently at

$156. They're now down to 100. Okay, so

we see these uh you know 40% dips in

most cases. Black Sky who's in AI

infrastructure reached $52 price points

on June and then they sold down into the

second week of June here about 40% as

well. And so you see most of the space

tech market pulling back while the

revenues actually look the best that

they've ever looked. There are a lot of

companies that aren't actually turning

profits. You do see the real world usage

of these companies uh very very

apparent. Redwire for example uh they

are in the market of space defense but

they're also in infrastructure. We see

the um satellite communications and also

the uh missile defense is a big one for

them as well as the uh golden dome

contracts that they've been building for

that is something that's seeing a lot of

real world usage as well. SpaceX for

example, you know, while they are not

fully operating at a profit and most of

the big profits are coming from X AI at

least, you could see that the main issue

with uh with most newer markets is that

you're not having real world usage. But

with a company like uh Starlink, for

example, they're powering the internet

for uh millions of people and they're

making over a billion dollars per

quarter and earning from their internet.

So, we've seen that Redwire has signed

multiple deals and you get into kind of

the contracts now and that the

financials look pretty good here. So,

they've signed a $2.6 $6 billion deal

they're a part of into 2025. And that

was one that was their first major deal.

Then you got into some of their recent

deals. They signed $151 billion deal.

And then they signed some other

contracts including multiple dozen

million deals. So $15 million here uh

for Army Aviation. There was another

multi-year contract for uh UAS. Uh and

then then you had some uh launches that

were happening along with some other $10

to20 million deals for autonomous

systems. There's another one there. And

then you had some drug discovery systems

as well that were in that $10 to20

million range that we saw Redwire

recently sign. There's a $4 million one.

There was a $10 million one. And they're

working with Artemis 2. So, they're

seeing the contracts really roll in. And

they're focused on not just the

uh not just the NASA missions and

exploration and the infrastructure, but

they're also heavily focused on the

actual defense side of things, which

even though the Iran uh ceasefire is in

place and then you have a peace deal

there, you still got a lot of war

happening. I know there's a tremendous

amount happening in Ukraine right now.

you are going to see more of the

implementation that it was just recently

we saw a lot of deals with the space

dome um that was literally in trillions

of dollars in defense contracts. If

there was going to be one time where you

would see uh a space tech market or just

defense market in general start to see

the windfall or start to see that the

impacts now today from all of the deals

that were put into place over the last 6

months. We're going to most likely see

some financials look fairly good on a

lot of these defense companies heading

into 2027. And so into the summer and

into fall, we want to look at the

financials for Red Wire as well. So that

brings us to the financials in their

balance sheet and their income

statement. Their current market cap is

at 3.73

billion. We started covering this

company at under a billion dollar in

market cap and we started covering them,

you know, back around 567 bucks a share

and as low as 487. We've continued to

cover them and now that they're at $15

market or $15 price point, their

financials are still even looking

favorable now because at the time when

we were looking at them around those $4,

$5 ranges, their balance sheet was at

about $1.45

billion in assets, uh, which was at the

time about a billion in equity. And that

was just their equity alone was greater

than their market cap. Now that their

market cap has more than tripled,

they're up to now $3.73

billion market cap. It still does not

look unfavorable. So you look at the

equity right now over a billion. The

institutional buying from Black Rockck,

you've got Citadel along with Vanguard

and State Street buying and net buying

seems to be outpacing the sells. 247

institutional buys of $44 million uh

versus $196 sells. So much more buys

than sells. On the insider side, when

you're looking at the directors, the C

uh the CEOs and some of the other um

insiders, it looks slightly more

bearish. You have just about 58 insider

sells versus 31 buys. So when we're

looking at the actual insiders, doesn't

look super favorable, but on the

institutions, it looks very favorable as

they continue to buy. And then on the

contracts, it looks favorable as they're

part of, you know, uh dozens of

billions, if not potentially getting a

share of u a big chunk of that $151

billion deal they're part of, which in

that instance, their income is most

likely going to continue to rise.

Annually, we've seen their revenue grow

significantly from just when they got

onto the stock market really back in

2020 2021. They're fairly fairly new

stock. They were doing around $137

million in revenue. And then by this

last quarter alone, they actually did

over $und00 million. Um it was 96

million last quarter, but over the last

three quarters, they're averaging over

$100 million in revenue per quarter. So

from annual numbers becoming quarterly

numbers now you could see that annual

growth as they continue to rally but

their net income still negative as they

haven't turned any profits and that's

not really expected that they turn a

profit in a space tech market because

ultimately you're going to have a lot of

investments back into the infrastructure

and if they're turning a profit um you

just got to ask yourself what they're

really doing because ultimately people

don't want to see people uh uh companies

waste money or burn through money as a

defense or as a government company of or

company that works with the government

heavily. But I would I would probably

argue that that would make sense that

they're not profitable. If they're

profitable um heavily profitable then

and they're working with the government,

then they might not be investing back

into their R&D as much as they should or

back into their technology focuses. They

recently opened up a new manufacturing

facility over in uh New Mexico. So with

their current levels of growing their

market cap and seeing their assets surge

along with their income statements

surge, this $3.7 billion market cap is

up there. It's still a little bit in a

sweet spot where you could see them

rally further. You look at some of the

projections into the next 6 months and

into the next year. Most models, while

this can change heavily due to different

changes in the day-to-day, the next year

is anticipating a $21 price point with a

34% surge year-over-year according to

Grock with Meta anticipating a 23% gain.

And on average, most models are over

about 17% bullish into this year. So,

what does that mean? Well, if you're

looking at the current levels with the

technicals, this is where things start

to get interesting and and really what

we're looking at currently. If they

break below this $15 range, we could see

them play once again between those $6

and $10 ranges. And it's not really the

most ideal situation. Although, we have

talked about seeing them stabilize

around that $12 to $15 range. But

looking at the current technical

analysis, they are selling off from that

level at $28. But they did find a bottom

here into end of last week. And now

they're looking to potentially

consolidate from left to right between

this $15 and $19 range with the next

target being a 22% gain from this $15

range up to about $1850. So this is kind

of the current left to right we're

looking at. If they do sell down

further, then you're getting that

breakdown. You're seeing that

continuation of that negative trend. And

then we start to see that maybe defense

contracts, while they've been good the

last few uh quarters, we're not going to

see as many because the tensions,

geopolitical tensions are easing a

little bit. Or maybe you get kind of

this uh this new pricing in of Space

Tech stocks as a result of SpaceX IPO

and all of the windfalls of their recent

deals start to show up in financials and

they repric in and hold above this 15 to

20 to even $50 range that a lot of

analysts seem to be targeting for

Redwire. And so currently, you know,

you're looking at that support around

15. The next resistance we're watching

is around $1850. And a breakout or a

continuation of their overall uptrend

would be up into $20 plus, even as high

as $30 a share, which would be an 85%

increase. So currently, you know, in

this left to right movement, it's

slightly less probabilistic, a little

bit less favorable than if you're

trading an uptrend, when you're trading

a down or a sideways trend. If you're in

a long-term position, then you could

know that the fundamentals are very

strong. The financials have been

improving. Their deals seem to be very

consistent. So, if you're on that 5 year

to 10 year horizon, then things look

pretty good for you. If you're looking

at the next month and you're in a swing

trade and you're uh you know just

looking at potentially making money in

the next few days or weeks, then having

clear structure and realizing risk

management here is important, especially

around this $14 level. If you get that

break below, you could see, you know,

that that uh stop or that risk

management be very helpful to pay

attention to around that $14 to $15

level. And what we'd be looking at for a

margin for profit for Redwire would be

up to 18 bucks. It's 22% margin for

profit here or a 40% margin for profit

over on RDWU.

So those are the levels to watch

currently. If you get that break above

$20, again, that's kind of the move that

we'd be looking for. I currently don't

have any short-term trades running with

Red Wire currently. We are looking for a

bullish move of course and we'll be

looking to play this potentially at

market open. When the market opens,

we'll have more clarity on where the

this stock is going. But why we're

patiently looking at this on the short

term is because there's not any

confirmation just yet. And we're seeing

how it reacts to the SpaceX IPO, how

capital flows in and out of that market.

as there's other markets that are

getting a lot of momentum as well like

photonix, data centers, quantum,

robotics that may see some influx as

well, which might result in some of

these stocks selling off further in the

space tech market. So, as a long-term

holder, I continue to hold. I'm going to

hold red wire. I've been holding it for

now over a year as we've been covering

it for quite some time on the channel. I

continue to hold it and I like it as a

long-term investment along with the

likes of Rocket Lab and uh Planet Labs

and Black Sky and LUNR and some of these

other uh long-term space holdings as

ESTs. And the short term, of course,

higher volatility, higher risk if you're

looking for a trade, just means you got

to be precise. And it doesn't mean it

doesn't have a great margin for profit

that if the opportunity presents itself,

we may take advantage of tomorrow

morning if we can see at market open

that we get that confirmation start to

see it break back above this EMA most

likely. So you got that left to right

holding below the 200 day moving average

now that green line. And oftent times

when it's bearish on the short term,

it's going to be holding below the EMA,

that blue line. When it's bullish, it's

going to be breaking above that EMA. is

going to be holding above that EMA and

vice versa we just talked about. And so

what we're looking for is that break

above the EMA, starting to see those

levels kind of uh break out and continue

that trend sideways to get to that third

stage of the reversal where we get the

actual um validation of this previous

resistance as a support. Potentially we

could see that continuation up. But

again, a lot of things have to happen

from here. We're going to just see how

things react tomorrow morning at market

open. And if we're able to take

advantage of it, would love to have you

there in the second link below to watch

me trade live. We'll be there right at

market open. And I would encourage you

to simply have a look. If I earned your

thumbs up, hit the like button. Do

consider subscribing. Let me know your

thoughts below on Redwire. And I'll see

you in the next video. Take care.