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EXCLUSIVE: Tesla's Robot Success Is Creating New Winners

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EXCLUSIVE: Tesla's Robot Success Is Creating New Winners

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1833 segments

0:00

And so there's a lot of groundwork that

0:01

is really important that's going into

0:03

the development for these robotics

0:04

companies that I think is really going

0:06

to pay off years down the road. Yeah, I

0:09

think the top humanoid companies are

0:10

going to be worth trillions if not tens

0:12

of trillions in the future, right? I

0:14

think yeah, I think there's going to be

0:16

multiple big winners and I think Tesla

0:18

and Figure are at the top of the pack.

0:20

It's just the same way there's a lot of

0:21

really great car companies out there,

0:23

right? And they all fit different

0:24

segments of the market depending on what

0:25

you need as a consumer. Some of them are

0:27

ultra luxury, some of them are more

0:29

economy, but there's a big market for

0:31

all these products. And that's right,

0:33

you're going to need a robot for the

0:34

home, but not everyone's going to have

0:35

the most premium products. Some might

0:37

have a maybe semi-premium product.

0:38

You're going to need a robot in

0:39

hospitals. Some you might need a robot

0:41

in an industrial facility. And those

0:43

robots could be designed differently.

0:44

For the home, you might need something

0:45

that's soft and compliant and safe,

0:47

whereas in an industrial setting, you

0:49

might need something that is more

0:50

durable and it can handle more weight,

0:53

etc. I think the smartest thing Elon

0:55

Musk ever did was deciding for Tesla to

0:57

enter the humanoid robot market in 2021.

1:00

He entered exactly at the right time

1:02

when AI and hardware were finally ready.

1:04

In that market, it's massive, estimated

1:06

to be a $5 trillion market by 2050, and

1:09

we're still at the very early innings.

1:11

There's no doubt Tesla will be a winner.

1:12

They're aiming to build 1 million

1:14

Optimus robots per year by 2030. But

1:16

Tesla won't be the only winner. More

1:18

than 100 companies are already building

1:20

humanoid robots and there are thousands

1:22

of players building all forms of

1:24

intelligent robots. Markets this large

1:26

create many winners. The problem is the

1:29

most promising companies figure

1:30

electronic and others are still private.

1:33

Most investors can't access them. Until

1:35

now. Last month, Robo Strategy went

1:37

public on NASDAQ under the ticker bot B.

1:41

Its goal is to give everyday investors

1:43

access to private robotics

1:44

opportunities. Today we get a chance to

1:46

meet Andrew Kang. Andrew is CEO of Robo

1:49

Strategy and built his reputation

1:51

running Mechanism Capital before

1:53

becoming one of the earliest major

1:54

backers of the humanoid robot movement

1:57

with a $19 million investment in figure

1:59

AI, now valued at 39 billion. We'll also

2:02

be joined by Dr. Scott Walter, a

2:04

two-time robotics founder who joined

2:06

Robbo Strategy and helps vet their

2:08

investment opportunities. Welcome,

2:09

Andrew. Welcome, Scott.

2:10

>> Hey, Herbert. Good to see you again,

2:12

Andrew.

2:13

>> Thanks for having us, Herbert.

2:18

Andrew, I've been wanting to talk to you

2:20

because you are one of the very first

2:23

people very early who had massive

2:26

conviction in this humanoid robot

2:27

market. Scott and I will tell you we

2:30

remember I don't know what it was at two

2:32

years ago in January. He and I started

2:34

doing these videos.

2:37

The kind of skepticism we had at the

2:38

time was never in my lifetime. Not going

2:41

to happen. Doesn't make sense. you put

2:43

in not only 1 million into figure and

2:45

then you said I'm going to put 19

2:47

million way back then. What gave you

2:49

that confidence at that such early

2:51

stage?

2:51

>> Yeah. Well, it was really a lot of

2:53

things. Um I mean one you you think

2:55

about how big the market is going to be

2:57

for humanoid robotics. I think all of

2:59

the the Tesla fans out there understand

3:02

that, right? Eventually we're going to

3:03

have billions potentially tens of

3:05

billions of robots out in the world. And

3:08

uh you can do the math, right? We sell

3:09

one robot for $50,000.

3:12

Uh what if we sell a h 100,000 of those?

3:14

It's $5 billion. What if we sell a

3:16

million of million of those? It's $50

3:18

billion. And so there's a pretty

3:20

plausible path where you you know you

3:22

scale these up 10 times year-over-year

3:25

and you could get eventually get to a

3:27

point where a major robot manufacturer

3:30

could be generating trillions of dollars

3:32

of revenue, which would equate to tens

3:34

of trillions of dollars of market cap.

3:36

Um, commercializing a humanoid robot

3:38

company though is is really really hard.

3:41

And so when I made the initial

3:44

investment, I really had to make sure

3:45

that this was the right team to do it

3:48

and that the probability of success was

3:51

going to be decently high. Um and the

3:55

after doing a lot of research looking

3:57

into the background of of Brett the

3:59

founder, seeing the success he had had

4:01

with his previous companies and the team

4:02

that he had brought on from not just uh

4:05

Google DeepMind but also from Tesla uh

4:08

the company itself uh from Boston

4:10

Dynamics, from Apple, really some of the

4:13

best roboticists around the world and uh

4:16

physical AI experts around the world. it

4:18

really seemed like this was one of the

4:20

few entrepreneurs and and teams that

4:22

were able to be up up for that

4:24

challenge. Um, and you know, as as

4:26

always, it's it's better to invest

4:28

earlier than later. Uh, when I initially

4:30

invested, most most of the venture

4:33

capital colleagues I I talked to, uh,

4:35

you know, they they weren't so

4:37

optimistic on the robotic space.

4:39

Previously, the space hadn't produced a

4:41

lot of venture scale outcomes. And so,

4:43

because of that, there was a lot of

4:44

hesitancy to invest. But I think when

4:47

there's a lot of fear, you know, it's

4:49

not always the best time to invest, but

4:51

sometimes it provides a pretty good

4:53

price. And and and so even though at the

4:57

time figure was worth $2.6 billion uh

5:00

post money, we saw the opportunity to be

5:02

in the trillions. And and so there was a

5:04

tremendous amount of upside still

5:06

available if they were able to execute.

5:10

And uh you know, that was that was one

5:11

of of many reasons why we made the bet.

5:13

I'm happy to kind of go more into

5:15

detail.

5:15

>> Yeah, let's do that. But uh to to set

5:17

the stage a little bit um I remember

5:20

those days and uh you know human or

5:22

robot comes in Elon says you know it's

5:25

time it's you have to have the right

5:27

actuators you have to have AI. Uh just

5:29

for disclosure uh Scott and I I think

5:32

we've always have told people that we

5:34

are such believers in human or robot

5:36

companies. So early on we ourselves are

5:38

investors in multiple humanoid robot

5:41

companies and you know and and the only

5:43

company that if you're if you're an

5:45

investor out there the only one you can

5:46

really invest in is the only public

5:48

company is Tesla. And clearly Tesla's

5:51

going to win um because of their

5:53

manufacturing chops and their AI chops

5:55

and so forth. But there's this is such a

5:57

huge market. We think that we should

5:59

invest to as many but regular retail

6:01

couldn't invest. But before we talk

6:02

about that, uh Scott, can you just give

6:04

us a lay of the land of what's happening

6:06

today from where it was before where we

6:08

are today? What's new information you

6:10

can share right now?

6:11

>> Okay. Well, glad to do that, but you

6:13

know, first what I want to do is I think

6:14

you said that, you know, Elon started,

6:16

you know, to ride the wave or catch

6:18

catch the wave in 2020 of the humanoids

6:19

because he saw the convergence. Really

6:21

should give him a bit more credit. He

6:22

more or less created the wave. So yes,

6:25

there was like this convergence of

6:26

technology that made it possible. Then

6:28

uh for the same reason that the

6:30

smartphone didn't come out in 2000, it

6:32

came around in 2008 because a

6:34

convergence of technologies, but you

6:35

still had Steve Jobs was like the thing

6:37

that kind of brought it all together

6:38

that allowed it to happen. And you know,

6:41

the humanit didn't start in 2020. They

6:43

they've been going on for a while with

6:44

little projects here and there. And you

6:47

know, robotics in general goes back to

6:49

like 1961 when the first industrial

6:51

robot is. But the thing is that they're

6:53

very kind of separate and the people who

6:55

are working in the humanoid spe were

6:57

always considered a little bit cookie.

6:58

So it was very hard to really get any uh

7:01

excitement to invest in there. You know

7:03

some people were getting pumped up about

7:04

Boston dynamics. But even then a lot of

7:06

people were just saying ah that's never

7:07

going to happen this Jetson's thing. You

7:09

know maybe that happened in my my

7:11

grandchildren's lifetime but it's not

7:12

going to happen in mine. But Elon did

7:14

see the convergence and he certainly

7:16

popularized it at that point. you were

7:19

no longer considered kooky if you were

7:21

talking about humanoids. It really

7:22

seemed like it was feasible and as a

7:24

result it really allowed the space to

7:26

open up and not just for capital to come

7:29

in there but it also meant that if you

7:31

were a robotic engineer you could pivot

7:33

and actually go into there and you would

7:35

be respected by your colleagues for

7:36

being able to do that. And so let's say

7:39

that moment kind of allowed me to

7:41

finally say, "Oh, okay. I'm no longer

7:43

playing with the industrial robots, but

7:45

you know, really going into something

7:46

was always a passion of anyone who's

7:48

been a roboticist." And that is to

7:50

someday have humanoids that are general

7:51

purpose that'll eventually make in their

7:53

homes. And I believe that that's that's

7:55

going to happen. So that's kind of

7:57

answering I think a little bit of your

7:58

question is that part of it is like this

8:00

convergence that was missing all along.

8:03

But the other part of it is the

8:05

excitement, the fact that we have so

8:07

many people interested in the problem of

8:09

solving it. People going to school to

8:12

learn about robotics, pumped up about

8:13

the idea, everyone wanting to be able to

8:15

startup. And the more and more you have

8:16

of that, the more likely you're going to

8:18

start seeing success. And we're right

8:21

now at the point that we're going to

8:23

start seeing the earliest

8:26

um adoption or let's say deployments

8:28

going on that are going to be able to

8:30

show people that it's not just cool

8:32

videos, but we are really getting the

8:35

point that the deployment phase is

8:36

beginning this year and then next year

8:39

is when you're going to start to see a

8:40

bit more and there's going to be pretty

8:41

obvious is happening and then each year

8:43

after that it's going to be more and

8:45

more clear and that that by 2030

8:48

everyone's going to know that yeah,

8:49

humanoids are here. Uh, I don't know if

8:51

you know, Andrew, but Scott and I have

8:53

done

8:56

130 plus shows for two, three years on

9:00

robots at this point. And the number one

9:02

question I keep getting from folks, I

9:04

think people are now convinced now that,

9:06

okay, human robots is a real thing. It

9:08

took that long for them to understand

9:10

this. And they're watching all these

9:12

demos from China, every bot demo, demo,

9:15

demo, and they're believing it now.

9:16

They're moving that direction. problem

9:18

is um many of them are just demos and

9:21

you don't know which is real. So what is

9:24

your like you you have I think if it's

9:26

correct you have your vision is two

9:28

things you're providing right is one is

9:30

access to private these these really hot

9:33

ones and then you guys do the vetting to

9:36

make sure that it's not just a fancy

9:37

demo.

9:38

>> Yeah, that's correct. And by the way,

9:39

Herbert, uh, two, three years ago when I

9:42

was initially doing research on the

9:43

humanoid robotics space, I watched the

9:45

the show with with you and Scott in it,

9:48

>> the first one.

9:49

>> Yeah.

9:50

>> So, it was one of the ways that I, you

9:52

know, initially got to know about Scott

9:54

and and connected with them. Um, but

9:57

going back to your question is, you

9:58

know, how do you know what's real and

10:00

what's fake? Is that that's the thing,

10:02

right, with a lot of these robotics

10:04

companies, they can have a robot try a

10:06

task maybe to, you know, package uh an

10:09

item and they could try 100 times and

10:11

they'll take a video of the just the

10:13

best try out of a hundred and that's the

10:15

one that they show online. And so you

10:17

really need to be able to weed out um

10:20

you know like what is just a

10:22

cherrypicked clip versus you know what

10:24

is a robot that is able to do tasks in

10:28

the real world autonomously and doesn't

10:30

need a human to fix it or to maintain it

10:34

you know every few hours right like

10:36

these things are these robots are only

10:38

useful if they don't really have much

10:40

human uh support at all um and so it

10:44

means you have to go out to the facility

10:46

You have to see the robots in action.

10:48

You have to play around with the robots.

10:50

You got to try to mess around with them.

10:51

See what happens if you block their

10:53

field of vision. See what happens if you

10:55

move items around. Um only then can you

10:58

can you tell if these robots are able to

11:00

work in the real world because the real

11:02

world is really messy. Uh this the

11:05

environment changes all the time. you

11:07

don't always have, you know, the the

11:09

items that you're working with in the

11:11

same place and you might have to work

11:12

with different instructions and and so

11:14

that is the beauty of robotics, right?

11:16

Is that or this new vision of robotics

11:18

is that they can adapt like humans can

11:20

and so when we do the dil due diligence,

11:22

we need to make sure that these robots

11:24

are really adapting and they're really

11:25

working without uh any human support.

11:27

>> Yeah. Yeah. I'll I'll just kind of

11:29

follow up on that is that you know we're

11:31

we're kind of fortunate that we don't

11:32

just have to to look at people's videos

11:34

that we are invited to go on site and go

11:36

out there and it's usually a lot of fun

11:38

and andrew has just he has read so many

11:40

papers on machine learning and how AI

11:43

works and you know exactly what causes

11:46

these models to break and and we'll go

11:49

out there and they'll be showing us like

11:50

a perfectly working model and will go

11:53

over and it'll just change one thing and

11:55

then suddenly you know it breaks. He's

11:57

he's really good at at being able to go

11:59

out and help us in those kind of

12:01

situations of knowing that we know

12:03

there's there's a certain distribution

12:04

that everyone's training in and

12:06

sometimes they have their own blinders

12:08

on because they think that's how the

12:09

problem is going to be and a lot of

12:10

times it takes someone from the outside

12:12

to say but have you considered this and

12:14

then immediately you see what's wrong

12:15

and what's been interesting is that a

12:17

lot of the companies we've done that

12:19

sometimes have been very quick to be

12:20

able to actually fix that problem. So,

12:23

uh, it has helped us to really be able

12:26

to tell, are we just seeing a demo or

12:28

are we actually seeing a team that is

12:30

able to react really quickly when they

12:32

start to see something that's a little

12:33

bit out of a distribution's not working

12:35

right, what is they can do to correct.

12:37

>> Gotcha. You guys have get get in. And of

12:39

course, you got Scott Walter. Um, Andrew

12:43

is like human or robots, I think, is the

12:45

way Elon positions it as being the

12:48

biggest market ever figure as a human or

12:51

robot.

12:53

you know that that's that gets all the

12:54

sexy stuff going on. But I I've been

12:57

telling my audience for so long at this

12:58

point. I guarantee you Tesla is going to

13:01

do many different form factors. Anything

13:04

that you that that can move with wheels

13:06

or whatever. It doesn't even have to

13:07

move. It can be anything that you put a

13:09

a chip on it and you put a camera on it,

13:12

it's going to become intelligent and

13:13

they will sell it. If you listen to

13:15

Elon, he has always says C3PO and RTD.

13:19

R2-D2.

13:20

Scott's title is what is it? Robotics.

13:24

>> Robotics research diligence director.

13:26

R2-D2 at Rob.

13:28

>> So weird, man. I would have gone with

13:29

chief diligence officer, but you want to

13:31

be R2-D2.

13:33

Um, but so you know, but it sounds like

13:35

your your uh philosophy and vision as

13:37

well, Andrew, is not just human or

13:39

robots. We're we're we're investing in

13:41

everything that is adjacent to the

13:43

robotics vertical. So it could be

13:45

humanoid robots and that's a big part of

13:47

our portfolio because we really think

13:48

that is one of the biggest opportunities

13:50

is something that is truly general

13:51

purpose. Uh if you look at the biggest

13:53

companies in the world, right, Apple and

13:56

Nvidia, they make general purpose

13:58

devices. For Apple, it's your it's your,

14:01

you know, smartphone, your iPhone, and

14:03

for Nvidia, right? It's the GPU.

14:06

And for all of these uh devices, right,

14:09

there's also the application specific

14:11

alternative. Uh but at the end of the

14:14

day, for general purpose devices,

14:16

because they're so adaptable and because

14:17

you can do so many things with them, you

14:19

can make them in such large quantities

14:21

that they become really affordable. And

14:23

when they become more affordable, then

14:25

well, it opens the market up to more

14:27

people. and and so you know humanoids is

14:30

something I would say is what we're the

14:32

we're the most excited about but there

14:35

are also other categories that are very

14:38

very exciting and we believe are big

14:39

opportunities as well one example is

14:41

industrial arms and cobots right

14:44

industrial arms they've been around for

14:45

a long long time uh I think one of the

14:48

things that has really maybe hindered

14:50

their adoption to the scale of what they

14:51

could be in the scale of you know

14:53

hundreds millions or billions is the

14:55

fact that traditional programming at

14:57

Scott knows very well has been very

14:59

cumbersome, very expensive, takes a very

15:01

long time. But as these physical AI

15:03

models get better, these robots, they

15:06

can do more things. They're more

15:07

adaptable. The time to teach them or

15:10

program them becomes very, very short.

15:12

And and so I think with that change in

15:14

mind in the future, you're going to see

15:15

a huge proliferation of these industrial

15:18

arms and cobots. And you know, if you

15:21

think about them compared to humanoids,

15:23

they're very similar in the sense that

15:24

they can also be general purpose. The

15:26

difference is they just can't move

15:27

around because they don't have legs. But

15:29

when we think about all these uh you

15:32

know tasks and all the things that you

15:34

would need to do in a factory setting or

15:36

in other settings right even in you know

15:38

hospitality or FND a lot of tasks you

15:42

just stay in the same place you don't

15:44

really need to be moving around it's

15:46

stationary you're doing the same thing

15:47

over and over and over and that could be

15:49

machine tending that could be things

15:51

like packaging that could be palletizing

15:54

etc. And so there's a huge market for

15:57

industrial arms and America, right? We

15:59

want to bring manufacturing back to

16:01

America. We want to re-industrialize.

16:03

And if we want to do that, we're going

16:04

to need a lot of industrial arms and

16:06

cobots. And so that's just one example.

16:08

We're also investing up and down the

16:10

supply chain. There's some really

16:12

interesting actuator companies that

16:14

we've been looking at recently, some

16:15

really interesting battery companies

16:17

that we're looking at as well. And you

16:19

know, these are all kind of components

16:20

that make up the robot that we believe

16:22

can be very important and potentially

16:24

large companies in the future.

16:25

>> One of my favorite episodes, one of the

16:27

episodes that had the most views was

16:29

Scott uh teaching us, remember Scott,

16:32

you showed us Giga Shanghai and you

16:34

would showed a video because there they

16:35

allowed a newscaster go in there and

16:37

Scott goes, "That job can be replaced.

16:40

That job can be replaced." And then he

16:41

showed us that some jobs you would use a

16:45

an ar a hand and arm and some jobs you

16:48

want robots with wheels and some jobs

16:49

you want a humanoid and you can pinpoint

16:52

exactly which role requires which one

16:54

and that was very well explained. Um so

16:59

the number one question I get from all

17:02

my audience members always is how do I

17:04

invest in robotics? uh because Tesla's

17:07

the only public one at this point and if

17:10

I want to invest in the private ones uh

17:12

luckily you know Scott and I were able

17:14

to do this because we uh we were people

17:17

reached out to us through this SPVS but

17:19

it's very hard for a regular investor to

17:21

do this and then if you do you want to

17:23

pick the ones that are the hottest you

17:26

know the ones who had the greatest

17:27

chance how does robo strategy how do you

17:29

guys get what you call what it's called

17:32

access right when when a new hot company

17:35

comes

17:36

they will pick and choose who gets to

17:38

invest. You guys are often one of the

17:40

first, not only at least there you don't

17:42

want to be like the 10th one in. How

17:45

does that happen and why you

17:46

>> Yeah, I mean as as I mentioned earlier

17:49

when we first initially started

17:51

investing in in in robotics, you know,

17:53

two to three years ago, I asked my

17:55

friends or, you know, our network in the

17:57

in the venture capital industry, should

17:59

we invest in this space? And they all

18:02

told us no because it hadn't produced

18:04

winners. And so, you know, we saw that

18:06

as basically an opportunity to create

18:08

one of the first robotic specific

18:11

investment firms. Um, and throughout

18:13

that process, we've gotten to know a lot

18:15

of really amazing founders, engineers,

18:18

researchers, etc. And we we've built

18:20

this network within the robotics

18:22

community. And, you know, we've gotten

18:24

to build a little bit of a brand as well

18:26

as investors that are really focused on

18:28

the space. Uh, they know their stuff. uh

18:31

both from a commercial perspective also

18:33

from an engineering and also from a

18:35

research perspective and you know while

18:38

building this firm it's also important

18:40

for us to be as they call it very value

18:42

ad uh to the companies that we invest in

18:45

in support and so that could be from a

18:47

marketing angle that could be from

18:48

referring talent to them or introducing

18:51

uh in other investors and and so um you

18:54

know building the firm over the last two

18:57

years we've been able to build a little

18:59

bit of a track record for ourselves as

19:01

being uh good investors in the space and

19:04

it's something that we're we're going to

19:05

be able to continue to do in in the

19:06

future. And so, you know, in terms of

19:08

how the access comes to us, that could

19:10

come from other founders that have, you

19:12

know, we've had a work relationship

19:14

from. It could come from just cold

19:16

inbounds. We get cold inbounds every

19:18

single day from people messaging us on X

19:21

or LinkedIn or other venues and also,

19:24

you know, other robotics investors in

19:26

the community. It's a very what I would

19:27

consider a tight-knit or small

19:29

investment community. And so we're also

19:32

talking to other investors that share

19:33

our views and um you know also believe

19:36

in the industry growth and um you know

19:39

we we collaborate and and um introduce

19:42

each other to other companies.

19:43

>> Yeah. And then Scott, you uh now that

19:46

you're working for Robbo Strategy, you

19:48

get to go fly in and check out all these

19:51

factories. You get invited to do watch

19:52

the demos. What are you seeing now in

19:55

the market? uh anything that's very

19:57

exciting or something you discovered

19:59

like are are actuators ready now what or

20:02

you know where are we in this

20:04

>> yeah they're getting better and let's

20:08

say um there's a lot of people out there

20:11

that are kind of rethinking how to solve

20:12

some of these problems um so you know

20:15

actuators I think they are not a solid

20:17

problem yet but we're getting very close

20:19

to it being there's kind of two problems

20:20

with the actuators is is one are they

20:22

able to produce you know the torque

20:24

density that you need so that's a little

20:26

bit of a design problem there. But the

20:27

other thing we we've always also heard

20:29

about is like, well, how do we

20:30

massproduce these things because right

20:32

now it's a very very slow process. Well,

20:34

we're seeing a lot of companies that are

20:36

really coming together to try to solve

20:37

that particular problem. So when it

20:39

comes time to scale, I believe we'll be

20:42

able to do that. All the pieces will

20:43

kind of come together. Um, so that's

20:47

that's very encouraging. But what I

20:49

think is the most encouraging is the

20:50

fact that we have gone from the fact

20:52

that humanoids talking about humanoids

20:54

was kind of a stigma. It's like oh you

20:56

don't want to talk talk about that to

20:58

now you kind of have you you're talking

21:00

about it but you think well maybe it's

21:02

just us. They're not going to be

21:03

laughing at us anymore. But the reality

21:05

is they all want to start testing. They

21:06

all want to be buying. I keep on hearing

21:08

from people. It's like they're no longer

21:09

saying how do I invest in these

21:11

companies. It's like how can I get my

21:12

hands in humanoid? Can you just tell me

21:14

anyone that we need to get them in to

21:15

start testing? And these are from like

21:17

Fortune 500 companies all the way down

21:19

to small companies you don't know of. So

21:21

a lot of them are figuring out how to

21:22

put it in there. It means like that's

21:23

really real. And it's not just like in

21:24

the US, it's also abroad in Europe and

21:27

everywhere else in a lot of countries

21:29

where you think they would be so

21:30

conservative they wouldn't be doing it.

21:31

So there's that incredible interest uh

21:34

to be able to move in that direction. So

21:37

um that that's telling me that this is

21:40

for real. Things are going to move. the

21:42

problems are going to get solved and

21:43

that the other thing is that you are

21:44

also seeing a lot of companies willing

21:46

to pick up the slack as far as the

21:48

supply chain. So before you might you

21:51

know a lot of them are in the auto

21:53

automotive space right now so they

21:54

already know how to scale complex kind

21:56

of things and in the past if you kind of

21:58

approach them about this they would be

22:00

like no I'm not interested are you

22:02

kidding now it's like hey how how do we

22:04

get that business they they're going out

22:06

and they're trying really hard to

22:07

compete for the business amongst all of

22:09

them. So those are like the very

22:11

positive bullish signs that I see that

22:14

everything you hear is for real because

22:16

you know it felt a little bit different

22:18

five years ago and and one of my

22:20

favorite quotes from Arthur C. Clark was

22:22

like the space elevator will um will be

22:26

will be invented pretty much 50 years

22:27

after everyone stops laughing. And it's

22:30

it's sort of the same thing with with

22:32

the humanoid bots is that you know

22:34

basically the humanoids will be deployed

22:36

five years after everyone stops

22:38

laughing. And I think everyone has kind

22:40

of stopped laughing right now and they

22:41

aren't taking it serious.

22:42

>> Can you guys like I'll give you a fun

22:45

exercise. One is can you name a company

22:47

that you invested in and why can you

22:50

name a company you had looked at and

22:52

decided not to? And then maybe you can

22:54

explain if you are looking at the

22:56

Chinese. It seems to me that it's Tesla,

22:59

Figure, Electronic, and then there's all

23:01

these Chinese that many people think is

23:03

actually way ahead in some cases, which

23:05

of course got to look at a closer eye.

23:08

You want to you guys want to try that?

23:10

>> Yeah, I I think Andrew can answer the

23:13

the question about, you know, which um

23:15

which companies we can invest in. Um the

23:18

question of chi of Chinese bots.

23:21

>> Yeah, I guess um you know, China and US

23:23

is always a is is is a pretty frequently

23:25

asked question. uh you see a lot of

23:27

videos of Chinese robots and you know

23:29

especially the unitary robots right and

23:32

I would say most of the time it's it's

23:34

for entertainment purposes uh you know

23:36

it's somebody controlling them with with

23:37

a remote control uh they're dancing

23:39

around but for the most part they're not

23:41

really doing real real work and that's

23:43

kind of the difference between the

23:44

American companies and the Chinese

23:45

companies is the Chinese companies

23:47

they're more so building a platform uh

23:49

for people to build on do research on

23:51

develop their own applications and the

23:53

American companies eventually are going

23:55

to be uh following a similar strategy

23:57

where the robot acts as as a bit of a

24:00

platform but in the short term I would

24:02

say over the next few years they're

24:04

really not looking to commercialize

24:05

their robot uh unless it's for a

24:08

specific application for a specific use

24:09

case like you know within uh the factory

24:12

or or eventually for for the home and

24:14

they want that robot to be perfect when

24:16

they actually bring it out and sell it.

24:18

Um but in terms of you know the industry

24:21

and where where both the industries are

24:23

going in each respective country I think

24:25

both of them are going to be great.

24:26

They're both going to be very massive

24:28

industries independently. Uh with China

24:32

right you've had a lot of government

24:33

support a lot of government funding

24:34

going into the industry over the last

24:36

three years which is why it's really

24:38

kind of gone so big. You have hundreds

24:42

of robotics companies that are now out

24:44

there. Um and I think eventually the

24:47

robots are going to be very good. The

24:49

thing is when you look at Chinese

24:51

companies, I think you have to

24:52

understand that uh great technological

24:55

proc uh progress doesn't always

24:57

correlate with uh you know large market

25:00

cap growth or large investment return.

25:02

And uh you know as investors that's kind

25:04

of what we're mostly concerned about is

25:07

you know how large is the actual

25:09

opportunity? Can this become something

25:10

Tesla scale or or Apple scale? And

25:14

China, for example, they produce really

25:16

great electric vehicles, cars. They

25:18

produce great phones now. But you look

25:20

at the biggest phone company, the

25:21

biggest car company, right? It's it's

25:23

it's Tesla and Apple. And why? Well, why

25:25

is that? Is because these companies,

25:27

they can charge or they can produce the

25:29

highest margins because they produce a

25:31

very premium product. Where you look at

25:33

the Chinese market, they can also

25:35

produce a premium product. But if you

25:37

have say 20 companies competing with

25:40

each other, the margins really get

25:41

squeezed down to the bone. And if you

25:44

look at BYD, they sell more cars than

25:46

Tesla, but their market cap is something

25:48

like 5% of Tesla's market cap. And so I

25:52

think a similar thing is going to

25:53

probably play out with the robotic space

25:54

where you're going to have a lot of

25:56

great technological innovation. Uh it's

25:58

going to really benefit society. it's

26:00

these robots are going to become really

26:02

affordable in China and wherever else

26:04

they sell to, but it's not going to

26:06

produce, you know, an Apple or Tesla

26:08

size outcome. Uh, and for America, you

26:12

don't have as many companies out there,

26:14

but they can still produce really great

26:16

uh products. And because there's lower

26:19

competition, it also means as an

26:21

investor, we see a little bit lower risk

26:23

from somebody that can come out of

26:24

nowhere and and really take over. uh and

26:26

so it is a little bit more attractive to

26:29

us from an investment point of view. And

26:30

then when you think about well what if

26:32

Chinese robots enter America? That is

26:34

something we think is is really not

26:36

going to happen in in scale. You look at

26:38

what happened with Chinese EVs. We don't

26:40

really have them in America. And you

26:42

look at why well the Biden

26:43

administration they put a 100% tariff on

26:46

Chinese EVs. And it's very likely if you

26:49

look at some of the current bills that

26:50

are being pushed through Congress that a

26:52

similar thing is going to happen for uh

26:54

Chinese robots. Another aspect is

26:56

there's a little bit of a national

26:58

security concern uh where you look at

27:00

Chinese EVs. Another reason why they're

27:01

not prevalent in America is because um

27:05

the FTC put a ban on cars from foreign

27:09

countries with uh you know foreign

27:11

software and foreign telecommunication

27:13

devices which Chinese robots would would

27:16

be have a lot of right you know they'd

27:18

be able to see and hear everything where

27:20

uh where they're deployed into whether

27:22

it be homes or or companies and that

27:24

that is a bit of a concern for the

27:26

American government. And so I think the

27:29

American government if they want the the

27:31

domestic robotics industry to succeed,

27:33

they're they're probably going to

27:34

prioritize and create legislation to

27:36

empower American robotics companies.

27:38

>> Yeah, I agree. Everything you said very

27:41

wholeheartedly.

27:43

So um people can go to NASDAQ, they can

27:45

buy bot B robot strategy and you got a

27:48

basket of all sorts of different kind of

27:50

robot uh companies in there. There are

27:53

most of them private almost all of them

27:54

private and uh a chronic figure are your

27:58

you know some of them and there's

28:00

others. Would you guys invest like I

28:02

think the third or fourth one I keep

28:04

hearing about is Boston Dynamic owned by

28:06

Hyundai. Uh I don't agree but many

28:08

people are going they think that they're

28:10

third. What do you guys think about

28:12

them? would you invest in them?

28:13

>> Okay. Yeah. First you have to remember

28:14

the whole idea behind bot is that we are

28:16

investing in private companies. So it's

28:19

not to go out and create an ETF. So

28:21

we're not an ETF in the sense that you

28:23

know we're not buying public companies.

28:25

Uh if we were to invest in Chinese

28:27

companies that becomes very complicated

28:29

because it's very difficult to invest in

28:31

private capital in China. It could be

28:34

possible once they go public but then

28:36

again it's like you can just buy it

28:38

yourself. So why we want to put in

28:40

there? So we are really focusing on just

28:42

the the private market at first. We also

28:45

aren't we're really looking at physical

28:47

intelligence. So that can run the whole

28:49

gamut of course from just getting the

28:51

full vertical of a humanoid to uh other

28:54

robotic companies that are innovating in

28:56

a way that makes things very very

28:57

interesting. And so that's what we're

28:59

trying to do with with this whole

29:00

basket. And then you know look at

29:02

sometimes picks and shovels that are

29:04

going to be going in there. Um, one of

29:06

my favorite companies is uh that that

29:09

we've invested in is Path Robotics. And

29:12

um, they don't actually build a robot.

29:14

They're using Motorman arms. Um, but

29:16

what they've done is they've added the

29:18

secret sauce to make their application

29:20

work. And this is for arc welding. And

29:23

arc welding is one of the largest

29:24

applications for industrial robots. But

29:26

it's really, really hard because it's

29:29

not just getting the robot to move along

29:31

the path correctly. It's also getting

29:33

your process parameters right. That's

29:35

very very difficult. And this is exactly

29:37

what Path Robotics has done is they've

29:39

got like a decade of data that they've

29:41

been collecting and figuring out exactly

29:43

what they have to do so that when you

29:45

turn that arc on, it actually gives you

29:47

the seam that you want. So that's really

29:50

what they've been able to add to and

29:51

that's why we're excited about it

29:52

because there's a going to be a shortage

29:55

of of welders. Um it's just happening.

29:57

You know, there already is like a

29:59

shortage of them. It's only going to get

30:00

worse over time. So that's one of those

30:01

companies can kind of go in there and

30:03

it's really this physical intelligence

30:04

and that's why we're excited. The other

30:06

is that this past week there was another

30:08

announcement of the closing of of series

30:11

C with uh standard bots and um that was

30:15

uh uh we were we led that round. We're

30:18

excited about them because uh they are

30:20

bringing the actual construction of

30:24

robot arms back to America. So back in

30:26

1961,

30:28

the first industrial arm was a Unimation

30:30

arm. It was made in America and then

30:33

at one point we didn't have any robots

30:36

being built in America anymore. And so

30:38

standard is bringing that back. So it's

30:40

either been Japanese or German or

30:42

Swedish.

30:43

>> Um and you know and now of recent years

30:45

also uh China because they've been also

30:48

building a lot of arms themselves. So uh

30:50

we're bringing that back to America

30:52

which is why we're very happy to work

30:54

with Standard Bots. they we believe they

30:56

really are leader in this area no doubt

30:57

about it and um I think you know just to

31:00

go to the other question we are looking

31:02

at a lot of companies uh that's what our

31:04

job is we cannot discuss or disclose

31:07

anything about them you know course

31:10

>> uh the other thing is that you know some

31:12

companies we have passed on but we

31:14

really don't want to say because I think

31:15

it's kind of unfair to them because

31:17

every one of those companies that we

31:19

look at when we start looking at them in

31:20

detail is because there's something

31:22

there and we think they they are really

31:24

good and And there can be many reasons.

31:27

Sometimes it's just like a timing. You

31:29

know, it's like they closed before we

31:32

were ready because everyone has, you

31:34

know, there are different kind of

31:35

calendars and schedules when capital

31:37

races have. And whenever there's a

31:39

situation that we decide that we have to

31:41

pass at a company, you know, the first

31:42

thing I put down there and the last

31:44

thing I write is like prove us wrong,

31:47

you know. So that's I feel about is

31:50

>> I didn't really want you to name names.

31:51

I just wanted you to walk me through

31:53

your thinking. That's right. But a lot

31:55

of times it's not because there's

31:56

anything wrong with the company or the

31:57

people or something like that. Sometimes

31:59

there's just a few things. And the other

32:01

thing is like there are other companies

32:02

also bidding for them,

32:04

>> you know, and so someone else puts on a

32:05

term sheet, they get better terms than

32:07

us. And so it's like, oh, okay.

32:09

>> Yeah. You have to pick the winners that

32:11

you want to do. Um, can I ask you then,

32:13

Andrew, just uh, you know, you you

32:15

launched BT bought on NASA.

32:18

Congratulations. That what a huge

32:20

excitement that must have been for you

32:22

last month. And then there are some

32:24

people who make comments. They will say,

32:26

you know, that yeah, it's interesting.

32:28

I've always wanted to invest into

32:29

private companies. Here's now a new way

32:31

for me to do it, but the management's

32:33

fees is too high. 2.5%. Is that right?

32:36

What's your response to that?

32:38

>> That's correct. It's a 2.5% management

32:41

fee. And I think you have to understand

32:43

that uh there's a lot of costs and time

32:47

and effort that goes into our process.

32:49

Uh it's not like, you know, we just kind

32:51

of picked this off of the public stock

32:53

market. Uh we have a full investment

32:56

team. That's not just me and Scott,

32:58

right? We also have Jack Walter on the

33:00

team, Roland, Mark, and we're continuing

33:03

to expand in hiring other robotics

33:05

founders and veterans, right? Because

33:07

there's a lot that goes into it. We're

33:09

we're one, we're looking there, Andrew.

33:12

I think you said Jack Walter, you met

33:14

Jack Pearson. Jack sometimes they call

33:16

him Mini Scott. So I think that's

33:17

>> Yeah. Mini Scott is is our internal name

33:19

for for Jack.

33:21

>> Um, but right, we're we're going out and

33:24

we're not just hearing the founder

33:26

stories, but we're going out to their

33:28

facilities. We're seeing if these robots

33:30

actually work or not. We're

33:31

investigating their manufacturing

33:33

process. We're talking to, you know,

33:35

their supply chain vendors

33:37

independently, doing our diligence,

33:39

seeing if, you know, their claims around

33:41

their orders are actually true or not.

33:43

We're going out and we're talking to

33:44

their customers. uh you know, some

33:46

referred by the company, but some we're

33:48

finding through, you know, external um

33:51

what you'd call uh professional

33:52

networks. Uh and we're seeing like, hey,

33:56

when you're using these robots out in

33:57

the field, how how are they actually

33:59

performing? Are there any issues with

34:01

them? How would you rate them against

34:02

their competitors? Uh we're going out

34:05

and we're, you know, diligencing the

34:08

entire leadership team. Are these people

34:10

with a track record of success? Have

34:12

they had any issues in in the past? And

34:15

we're, you know, there is probably, you

34:17

know, hundreds of hours of work that

34:19

goes into each individual investment.

34:22

And it takes a lot of um, you know,

34:24

effort and capital on our side to do so.

34:26

And, you know, we're not just building

34:27

the investment team, but we're building

34:29

a policy team, a research team. We

34:32

recently hired Bill Hughes, who was a

34:34

big uh, mover and shaker out in in DC

34:37

and uh, influencing a lot of um, policy

34:40

out there. he previously was heading of

34:42

a 250 person team at the executive

34:45

office at the White House. Um, and you

34:48

know, America, we don't have a national

34:50

robotic strategy yet, but I think it's a

34:53

very good idea that we should have one.

34:54

And, you know, we're really trying to

34:56

put our best effort in to help bring the

34:58

insight and the, you know, the leaders

35:00

from the best robotics companies to the

35:02

table to be able to, you know, influence

35:04

domestic policy in a very positive way

35:06

so the industry can grow. So there's a

35:07

lot that uh the one the fee goes to but

35:10

then you look compared to a traditional

35:11

venture capital fund they charge 2%

35:14

management fee and a 20% performance fee

35:17

and so you know you do the math on if an

35:20

investment through a venture capital

35:22

fund what happens it goes 10x versus

35:25

through robo strategy you know I think

35:27

you might be able to see that maybe that

35:29

fee is not so high imagine if for

35:31

example you know you invested in a fund

35:34

that held SpaceX 10 years ago and they

35:37

charge a 2.5% management fee and um you

35:41

know well I guess you can do your math

35:42

yourself on whether you would think it's

35:44

worth it or not versus the alter

35:46

>> well most of them are SPVS and if

35:47

they're SPVS they take a 20% cut not

35:50

just the management fee

35:52

>> yeah let's talk about that 20% cut for

35:54

for a while that's like a capital gains

35:56

tax so in other words you pay a capital

35:58

gains tax before you pay the actual

36:00

capital gains tax on top of that so it

36:03

yeah that can be a pretty hefty

36:04

>> but it's worth it because it's early.

36:06

You're making a bet on

36:07

>> because it's because it's early.

36:08

>> It's early and it's going to jump high.

36:10

So, you're going to go, "Okay, fine. I'm

36:11

going to make a bet." And, you know, I I

36:14

hate investing in SPVS. Honestly, I'm

36:16

telling you, cuz like that 20% cut, it's

36:18

a little it's painful. And so, not

36:20

having to pay that uh but going through

36:23

this is is, you know, the 2.5% is higher

36:26

than the 2% management fee. That's

36:29

great. Can you explain um the NAV? So,

36:31

net asset value premium. So you have a

36:35

fund, you buy all these private

36:36

companies, there's a value. I mean, and

36:38

unfortunately that value is private. So

36:40

it's not a public market. So you, you

36:41

know, it's like it it's it's what the

36:43

mark what the last fund investment

36:45

valued it at. And so you don't know if

36:47

it's high or if it's low. But then on

36:50

top of that, the stock price for bot

36:52

could go up, could go down, it can go

36:54

up. And then how do how would an

36:56

investor look at that and go, okay,

36:57

that's a fair price.

36:58

>> Yeah, you know, that that that is

37:00

something that is uh definitely comes up

37:02

a lot. And what for to understand NAV

37:04

correctly I think is really important

37:06

because it it it is a little bit uh

37:09

subjective in the sense that we have a

37:12

framework for for marking NAV and that

37:15

is based on the last round valuation

37:18

uh and that is based on the last round

37:20

valuation and then we add a period right

37:22

where we have to do our admin and audit

37:23

process that could add a few weeks could

37:25

add a month sometimes a little bit more

37:28

and so there is a little bit of a lag

37:30

sometimes when NAV is reported compared

37:34

to you know what the company itself

37:37

might have done its last round at

37:39

another way to think about it is private

37:41

markets and public markets have a

37:43

different subset of investors in them

37:46

and sometimes those subset of investors

37:48

value assets differently and so an

37:52

example I like to give is if you took uh

37:56

say a tech worker or a factory worker

37:58

from China and you place them in America

38:00

uh and they might be paid four times

38:03

more, five times more even if they had

38:05

the same skill set. And that's the thing

38:08

with private markets is that you have a

38:11

completely different supply and demand

38:13

dynamic where the subset of buyers,

38:16

right, demand is this small community of

38:19

venture capitalists and you know their

38:21

network that might invest in these SPVS

38:23

compared to the public markets which is

38:25

almost everybody in in the world. And so

38:27

it's a much much larger universe. And

38:30

oftent times, right, you see when

38:32

companies go public, their valuations

38:34

are higher. And this is this is not too

38:36

different from I guess what you would

38:37

see from the whole private e equity

38:40

industry complex where there are

38:41

companies out there, public companies.

38:44

Their whole business model is predicated

38:46

on acquiring private companies.

38:49

>> Yeah.

38:50

>> And not taking them public, but

38:52

sometimes taking them public, but just

38:53

adding them to their balance sheet.

38:54

Right. The public companies themselves

38:57

they could be trading at say a 15 to 40x

39:00

earnings multiple and in the same

39:02

category private companies in the same

39:04

vertical could be trading at a 3 to8x

39:07

and so that company they could say spend

39:10

$100 million to acquire that private

39:12

company and as soon as added to the

39:14

balance sheet now that's worth 400

39:16

billion sorry 400 million based on those

39:18

cash flows and so this is like something

39:20

that you have to maybe consider it's a

39:22

little bit hard to conceptualize but

39:24

private markets and public markets, they

39:26

have a little bit of a different pricing

39:27

mechanism and and we're bridging that

39:29

gap.

39:30

>> Yeah. Okay. And and uh can you explain

39:32

this uh two billion equity facility? So

39:35

right after you launched then you made

39:37

an announcement that there's I guess you

39:39

have a partnership and that you have

39:41

access to $2 billion then that you can

39:43

do that to buy more uh robot companies.

39:46

Buy buy invest more and not buy more but

39:49

invest more.

39:50

>> Yeah. To explain that that that is not

39:52

um you know a credit line. we're not

39:54

taking leverage on that $2 billion. So,

39:57

what that means to us is we can

39:59

essentially raise more capital by

40:02

issuing new shares and Roth, our capital

40:06

partner, right? They would facilitate

40:08

that process for us. We're not going to

40:10

be issuing $2 billion of shares, you

40:13

know, in one day or even one month.

40:17

We're going to look to do it in a way

40:19

that is value accreative to

40:20

shareholders. Right? A lot of people

40:22

they see a big dilution number and of

40:24

course if dilution and share issuance is

40:27

not managed well and the proceeds of

40:29

share issuance and capital raises are

40:31

not me uh managed well then it could be

40:33

bad for a company. On the other hand,

40:36

companies can raise cash by issuing more

40:38

equity and reinvest that and generate a

40:41

return that is good for shareholders and

40:43

that that is our our intention. We we

40:46

don't want to sell stock to to really

40:48

negatively affect the share price. We're

40:51

only doing it in a way where we you know

40:54

if the value of the stock is above the

40:56

NAV it is accreative to shareholders

40:59

because you know we take basically the

41:02

public market cost of capital and the

41:05

public market prices and and um you know

41:09

we take that and put it into the private

41:10

markets at the private market prices

41:12

which which are lower and in that way

41:14

benefit shareholders.

41:15

>> Yeah. I mean the whole game isn't it?

41:17

that you guys are looking for these hot

41:19

private robot companies. You want to be

41:22

chosen first, get there, you vet it and

41:24

then you go, "Okay, I like it. Now you

41:26

need to have money to invest." Uh then

41:28

you invest in it and then it likely

41:31

should hopefully go up. Some will be

41:33

losers, many will be losers, but many

41:35

could be huge winners. That's the whole

41:36

point. And then when they go big, um

41:39

that's what you you need the money to

41:41

invest and that's what this is. Okay.

41:42

>> Correct.

41:43

>> Yeah.

41:43

>> Oh, Scott. So, you know, what is the

41:46

latest uh that you're most excited about

41:49

in the robotics industry?

41:51

>> I wish I could say

41:54

uh we're excited uh about a lot of

41:58

developments out there, a lot of new

41:59

companies. Um I guess you just have to

42:02

stay

42:03

>> You're not going to share it. Okay.

42:04

Gotcha. Gotcha.

42:05

>> I mean, I think we should we should talk

42:07

about Bigger. Um, if we're talking about

42:09

one company, I I don't know how much you

42:11

guys have talked about it on previous

42:13

episodes, but I mean, one of the reasons

42:15

I I really like them outside of, you

42:17

know, their competency in manufacturing

42:19

and hardware design and, you know,

42:22

physical AI development is they have a

42:25

very unique taste. Um, and you can see

42:28

this by the videos that they put out

42:30

that they're creating this this image,

42:33

right? They're designing the robot so it

42:35

feels like a premium product. It's

42:36

something that you want in your home.

42:37

And if you know you had visitors in your

42:39

home, you'd be proud that hey, look, I

42:40

own I own a figure. In the same way that

42:42

you'd want to own, you know, an iPhone

42:44

versus, you know, maybe like a cheap

42:47

generic alternative. Uh, and people

42:50

people are willing to pay for that that

42:51

premium experience because they know

42:53

it's reliable. Not just it looks good,

42:55

but it's reliable. And when I open the

42:57

box, right, the Apple box, it's like

42:59

this is really welldesigned. There's

43:01

been a lot of thought put into it. And

43:03

um this is one of the few robotics

43:06

companies out there that I feel like

43:07

really embodies that Apple spirit. And

43:10

so, you know, I I I like to call them

43:12

this like the Apple of our of our

43:14

generation. Um you know, they still have

43:16

a lot of work to do. They still got to

43:18

pull it off, but it's very few companies

43:21

out there that I I feel like that

43:23

attention of detail to product and and

43:27

design is is really embodied by by the

43:29

team. Um, and so, you know, if I want a

43:33

robot, right, to take care of my

43:34

parents, for example, like I I would

43:36

want to buy them the most premium

43:38

product, I wouldn't want to, you know,

43:40

rely on some, you know, a comp, you

43:43

know, a generic product that might not

43:45

have every single detail thought

43:46

through, right? Because if their design

43:48

is is off, right? Like, well, what do I

43:49

expect from its reliability?

43:52

if it's, you know, doing things around

43:55

the house, like do I want to risk it

43:57

falling apart or, you know, breaking

43:59

things or right because these things,

44:01

these robots can be dangerous if if if

44:03

they don't work well. So, I want to make

44:06

sure it's reliable and it works

44:07

perfectly.

44:08

>> So, three of us are all investors in

44:10

Figure and now people if you want to,

44:12

you can invest in BT to get access to

44:15

that as well because they're still a

44:16

private company. Um, but Scott, how are

44:19

they doing in terms of manufacturing?

44:21

So, I agree with you completely, Andrew,

44:22

that you know, you know, you see all

44:24

these bots from China and they're not

44:27

they don't they're first of all, they're

44:28

tiny like they're three feet tall.

44:30

People think that they're really big or

44:31

something like that. They're tiny or

44:33

they're just clunky and they clearly are

44:35

there for demo purposes, not for real,

44:38

you know, real working. Where are they

44:40

though? The the the number one most

44:42

important thing of there's three, right?

44:43

Isn't it? Intelligence,

44:46

hands, and manufacturing.

44:48

>> Where are they with

44:50

>> scale? So, um, they've been working on

44:52

on that quite diligently and as we've

44:54

seen since January they've been ramping

44:56

up in each month they've been able to

44:58

increase their numbers more and more and

45:00

I believe uh last month it was about 250

45:03

bots uh that were produced. So, I think

45:06

they're getting pretty close to like one

45:07

bot every 30 minutes something like

45:09

that. So, um, that's impressive. And

45:13

what that means is that by the the end

45:14

of the year, we're going to be talking

45:16

with the produce thousands of of bots.

45:20

This that's for figure three. Um, but

45:23

Brett has already announced the that

45:24

figure four, the design has been locked

45:26

on that and they're getting ready for

45:27

that. So my overall feeling is that the

45:30

the right way you do something is that

45:33

if you get this next generation coming

45:34

out, you don't take the previous one and

45:37

scale it up to like hundreds of

45:39

thousands of bots unnecessarily when

45:40

you've got another one that's like so

45:42

close behind. And they are learning

45:45

everything that they need to right now

45:47

about how do you scale up? So they're

45:49

already setting up bot Q. They're

45:51

getting their manufacturing processes

45:52

together. They're working with their

45:54

supply chain. They're finding out what

45:55

the kinks are in the supply chain, what

45:57

they've got to kind of work out and get

45:58

that better. So when it gets ready for

46:00

the next generation one, they're not

46:02

starting from scratch. They already know

46:03

what's going on. There's probably going

46:04

to be a lot of very similar components

46:06

that going to be going in there. So um

46:09

they are definitely well positioned to

46:10

be able to take care of the scaling

46:12

problem. Now we've seen that in China,

46:14

they've also been able to scale rather

46:16

large numbers, which sound pretty

46:17

impressive. So I think did about 5,000

46:19

last year and everyone's talking about,

46:21

you know, maybe to have similar numbers

46:22

this year, you know, maybe the order of

46:24

10,000. But the way they're doing it is

46:27

um not a way that I would say is really

46:30

long-term scalable because the bots are

46:34

all the components are being made from

46:36

aluminum billets that are just being

46:37

machined in CNC machines. And we know

46:39

this because I was at Monroe and

46:40

Associates about a week and a half ago

46:42

and there's going to be a podcast coming

46:44

out about that where it was very clear

46:46

that everything that makes up the unitry

46:48

bot all the the entire skeleton that you

46:50

look at that thing you can go yep that

46:52

whole thing was machined in a CNC

46:54

machine. And

46:56

>> they are able to do that in China

46:57

because they literally have football

46:58

fields just full of CNC machines. And

47:01

what that does allows you get to a scale

47:02

of about a thousand and then suddenly

47:05

you hit a dead end. And what you have to

47:07

start think about is if we're going to

47:08

go an order of magnitude above that, you

47:10

start to need these other production

47:12

techniques, which means you start going

47:13

more to casting and stamping stuff like

47:15

that. Well, we've already seen that

47:16

figure start to do the the casting a lot

47:19

of the components because when we

47:20

visited there for figure two, which is

47:23

like a very very early prototype, they

47:25

were doing exactly that. And we joke

47:27

that um the the one thing that Figure

47:30

produces more than anything else is

47:32

aluminum chips. and they get literally

47:34

like 95% of the aluminum that comes in

47:37

the door ends up exiting the door a few

47:39

weeks later as everything gets processed

47:40

down to get everything. So that's what

47:42

you can do like an early prototyping

47:44

phase, but you don't try to do that to

47:46

take it to full scale. And so this is

47:49

where I think you're going to be seeing,

47:50

you know, both figure and Tesla and

47:52

others that are thinking of scaling are

47:53

thinking more on that because um we

47:56

can't rely on this idea of football

47:58

fields full of CNC machines. That's only

48:00

for prototyping. And so that might be

48:02

something that actually is like to a

48:04

detriment of China is they think, well,

48:06

we could just crank it up a little bit

48:08

more, right? It's like, well, you

48:09

squeeze a bit more, but that order of

48:11

magnitude is going to require a

48:12

completely different process.

48:14

>> Yeah. There's going to be a lot of

48:15

growing pains, right? When scaling up

48:16

manufacturing, one of the things that we

48:18

hear constantly is that uh when when

48:20

these companies are getting the

48:21

actuators in from from their suppliers,

48:23

there's a huge variation in quality. And

48:26

some of them can be good and then some

48:27

of them can be really bad. And you need

48:29

to be able to have a process to be able

48:31

to differentiate a good one from a bad

48:33

one because sometimes it's not so

48:34

obvious. And if you don't have a good

48:35

process in place, well, you could have a

48:37

bad actuator, you know, in in your

48:39

robot, that that's not a very good

48:40

outcome. And um that's something that

48:42

just takes time, right? It takes months,

48:46

years to really iron out your your

48:47

manufacturing process, your QA process.

48:50

And that's what our portfolio companies

48:52

are are doing, right? You you can't just

48:54

start a robot company tomorrow and have

48:56

all that ready. Yeah. Um, and so there's

48:58

a lot of groundwork that is really

49:00

important that's going into the

49:01

development um, for these robotics

49:03

companies that I think is really going

49:04

to pay off years down the road.

49:06

>> Yeah. Yeah. They're getting the reps in

49:07

now with the supply chain so they have

49:10

the muscle memory that when they're

49:12

serious about it, they know exactly how

49:13

to manage the whole thing.

49:15

>> Andrew, can you give me a sense of what

49:16

you're thinking about timelines? Um, so

49:19

we know that Figure is one of the

49:21

leading companies. We don't, you know,

49:23

obviously Tesla's, you know, they've got

49:25

two factories that they're building, but

49:27

figures the other private company, the

49:29

private company is leading the most and

49:30

they're valued at 39 billion. Where do

49:33

you see them going to? Electronic is

49:35

worth 5 billion. The last both of these

49:37

are like previous uh funding market caps

49:40

or caps based on last funding. What what

49:43

what do you see happening to these? Some

49:46

people will say, "Hey, I missed I missed

49:48

the boat."

49:49

Yeah, I I think the top humanoid

49:51

companies are going to be worth

49:52

trillions if not tens of trillions.

49:55

>> Some more. Okay, we know Tesla could be

49:57

worth trillions market cap, but you're

50:00

thinking that even Figure could be worth

50:02

trillions, not just 39 billion.

50:04

>> Yeah, I think there's going to be

50:05

multiple big winners and I I think Tesla

50:07

and and um you know, Figure are at the

50:10

top of the pack. It's just the same way

50:12

there's a lot of um really great car

50:14

companies out there, right? And they all

50:15

fit different segments of the market

50:16

depending on what you need as a

50:18

consumer. Some of them are ultra luxury.

50:20

Uh some of them are are more economy,

50:22

but there's a big market for all these

50:23

products. And it's right, you you're

50:25

going to need a robot for the home, but

50:27

not everyone's going to have the most

50:28

premium product. Some might have a, you

50:30

know, maybe semi-premium product. You're

50:31

going to need a robot in hospitals. Some

50:33

you might need a robot in an industrial

50:35

facility. And like those robots could be

50:36

designed differently. For the home, you

50:38

might need something that's soft and

50:39

compliant and safe. for as an industrial

50:42

setting. You might need something that

50:43

is more durable and it can handle more

50:45

weight uh etc. And so right I think

50:48

there's going to be multiple big winners

50:49

which is why we're taking uh you know a

50:51

multi multiple company investment

50:53

approach. Um and you know I think can be

50:57

up there as well. Um in terms of

51:00

timeline right like I think the

51:02

intelligence is actually getting there

51:04

pretty quickly. I think we're at the

51:05

GPT3 level of physical intelligence for

51:07

robots. It's a little bit hard to see

51:09

because, you know, we we sometimes we

51:12

forget how bad GPT3 was, right? It was

51:14

giving us gibberish answers. It was

51:16

wrong most of the time, but it was it

51:18

was useful sometimes. The thing with

51:20

robots is that you need them to be right

51:22

or accurate 100% of the time for them to

51:24

be really useful. And that's kind of

51:26

where we're getting with some of these

51:27

more chatbot or LLM models now, uh, you

51:30

know, two, three years later. I think

51:32

that Excel that development timeline is

51:34

going to be really compressed because

51:35

there are a lot of learnings that we

51:37

went through uh when getting from GPT3

51:39

to five right that don't need to be

51:41

exactly reproduced all of the

51:43

innovations in say mid-training uh post-

51:46

training RHF uh right there's a

51:49

different mechanism for RL for for

51:50

robotics and right data filtering to

51:53

make sure that we have the right data uh

51:55

getting the right annotation

51:56

infrastructure in place a lot of these

51:58

techniques and research kind of

52:00

innovations we we can also bring over to

52:02

physical AI. And so I don't think it's

52:03

going to be three years to get to the

52:05

GBT5 level equivalent. I think it's

52:07

going to be maybe like something along

52:08

the lines of one to two years. And then

52:10

once we're there, well then it doesn't

52:12

mean we're going to have billions of

52:13

robots everywhere. We're still going to

52:15

need to scale manufacturing. That's

52:16

going to be a bottleneck for us. Supply

52:18

chain is going to be a bottleneck. And

52:20

so we're going to have really great

52:21

robots, I think, in two years time, but

52:24

maybe we're going to have maybe hundreds

52:25

of thousands. Maybe we'll have millions

52:26

of them. And then, you know, when when

52:29

we're four years out in the future, five

52:31

years out, I think then you you start

52:34

seeing, you know, hundreds of millions,

52:36

maybe maybe even billions in the in the

52:38

in the 2030s. But the market, right, it

52:40

always prices things sooner than later.

52:43

Uh it it it looks into the future and

52:46

that's why we want to invest now as

52:47

opposed to later.

52:48

>> Okay. uh you know what about the angle

52:51

that some people will say that I think I

52:53

believe it which is you need to first

52:55

get to call a number 20,000 30,000

52:59

robots get it out there in the live have

53:03

a huge supercomput with simulation and

53:07

then have all those 20,000 be trained

53:09

and then learning all sorts of skills

53:11

and then only could you once you have

53:13

that then you get to the you know

53:15

generalized GPT5 kind of level of

53:18

physical AI to be able to do everything

53:21

really really well. One shot uh being

53:23

trained it to do anything that you want

53:26

it to do. Uh do you agree with that?

53:28

>> Well, you know, instead of simulation is

53:31

one approach, right? There's a lot of

53:32

different methods to collect data for

53:34

these robot foundation models. Um the

53:37

thing with simulation is that it needs

53:39

to simulate everything to a very very

53:41

high degree of fidelity and that can

53:44

work for things like locomotion, right?

53:47

um a robot walking around where the

53:49

contact forces can be modeled very

53:52

easily. But for things like you know

53:54

you're working with deformable objects

53:56

or um you know fluids for example those

54:00

are really hard to model with

54:01

traditional you know physics or

54:03

simulation engines. And so this is where

54:06

what they call world models come into

54:08

place which you can kind of think about

54:09

as some people call it neural

54:10

simulation. It's it's kind of how humans

54:13

think, right, and act in the real world

54:14

is well, we don't exactly imagine every

54:17

single frame ahead of us, but we have a

54:19

sense of how the world may change given

54:22

certain actions that we may take. And

54:24

these world models are getting really,

54:25

really good. The backbone of these world

54:27

models is essentially these video

54:29

generation models uh like Sora for

54:32

example, right? And these video

54:34

generation models as they get better and

54:36

better uh at understanding the world

54:40

then the robot foundation models get

54:42

better and better as well because

54:43

they're built on top of these video

54:45

generation or world models. Scott, I

54:47

mean happy a little bit more, but that

54:49

is kind of the high level detail.

54:51

>> Yeah. Yeah.

54:51

>> Yeah. But you need to have 2,000 to

54:53

10,000 robots physically out there. And

54:55

so my point is that whichever companies

54:57

can get it out there, then you get the

55:00

data then you can learn faster.

55:01

>> Yeah. So from the post-training

55:03

standpoint, you would need to do a

55:05

little bit of that because of that

55:07

infamous sim to real gap. So again, it's

55:09

like what Andrew was talking about is

55:11

that in a lot of these physics

55:12

simulators, you can do walking pretty

55:14

well, but even then, when you bring it

55:16

to the real one, there's like a little

55:17

bit of adjustment you have to do to get

55:19

it kind of work the same, same way. When

55:21

you start doing manipulation, which is a

55:22

much tougher task, you would need a

55:24

little bit more. But these world models

55:26

are getting kind of better and better at

55:28

that if that they start seeing enough of

55:30

it. um it's almost like you don't need

55:33

the underlying physics. It just they

55:36

kind of get the idea of how it works

55:38

enough that things will start to work

55:40

successfully in the real world. So it's

55:41

a question of how many do we actually

55:43

need in the real world? Do we need

55:44

thousands, tens of thousands, or

55:46

hundreds of thousands? That's kind of up

55:47

for debate. Um I think everyone agrees

55:50

it's probably minimum like a thousand

55:53

that you would need to get out there and

55:54

you would probably be able to do uh

55:55

pretty well, but the question is whether

55:57

you need to go up a little bit more. And

55:58

that's kind of the race that's going on.

55:59

you've seen with everyone that you know

56:01

sort of the their second or third

56:02

generation robots they want to crank

56:04

them out in enough numbers that they can

56:06

start doing that and getting those

56:08

numbers. So we're seeing that a lot in

56:09

China that a lot of the companies that

56:11

was really only their second generation

56:12

bots they started to scale quite a bit

56:14

and then they're putting them in these

56:15

gymnasiums where they're getting lots

56:17

and lots of training data to try to to

56:20

cover that. It could be that um you know

56:22

there's going to be other methods that

56:24

come on there to do it. Nobody knows and

56:26

it it's every month it seems like the

56:29

industry kind of shifts directions

56:31

because a few months ago we weren't

56:33

talking about world models you know we

56:35

talking about blas and now suddenly

56:37

everything is shifting that way and it

56:39

could change uh another and we're seeing

56:41

the same thing like how what about data

56:43

collection what's the best way to do it

56:44

at first like you had to do everything

56:46

teleop with a real robot and then

56:48

suddenly well wait a minute um is coming

56:49

out now so you don't actually need to do

56:51

tell with real one so we can put on

56:52

these data gloves and go there capture

56:54

all the data that way. Well, now there's

56:56

like another push. It's like, well,

56:58

maybe we don't even need to do that.

56:59

Maybe we can just go pure egocentric. We

57:01

don't need to have special gloves or

57:03

anything like that. We can just go ahead

57:04

and put a camera up there and be able to

57:05

grab it. So, there's kind of this debate

57:07

that's going on within the community,

57:09

which is the right approach. I don't

57:11

know what the right approach is because

57:13

they don't know what the right approach

57:15

is. So, how am I going to know? So,

57:16

they're all kind of arguing trying to

57:17

figure that out. And we'll only sort

57:18

that out with time. But I think we all

57:20

agree you need a certain scale of your

57:23

physical hardware to test it out to make

57:25

sure it actually works. But do you you

57:28

do not need it to be able to do all

57:30

tasks. You just need it to be able to do

57:32

enough tasks that it's useful and that

57:34

someone is says yes, it's ready to

57:36

deploy in this particular setting and is

57:38

able to do useful work. And of course

57:40

that means it's more likely to be in a

57:42

commercial setting where the task

57:44

requirements are far more narrow than it

57:46

would be for a general purpose robot in

57:48

your home. Unless there's really just

57:50

one task that you want the robot to do

57:51

in your home and then you know maybe

57:53

you'd be able to do that.

57:54

>> Well, there you go. Yeah, that's I

57:57

perfect explanation. Both of you

57:58

appreciate it. Uh so Andrew, what's your

58:00

what's what do you have forecast to

58:02

happen this year? What's what's your

58:03

plan? What are you expecting? What are

58:05

you excited about? Yeah, like I said, I

58:07

I think we're going to get a really what

58:09

I consider like jump for the

58:11

intelligence of the physical

58:12

intelligence models where before you

58:14

were seeing more so demos in in a lab

58:17

setting, but robots actually deployed

58:18

more robots being deployed into the real

58:21

world and for them to be actually doing

58:23

tasks without any kind of human support

58:26

at all. And uh we're going to really

58:28

start scaling manufacturing. So, you

58:31

know, at last year, you know, you were

58:32

seeing some of the American companies

58:33

maybe producing hundreds of robots per

58:35

year. Now, that's scaling to the

58:37

thousands. Towards the end of the year,

58:38

I think the pace is going going to

58:40

increase to the tens of thousands. And,

58:42

you know, every year that goes forward,

58:43

we're going to increase that rate uh

58:45

10x. Um,

58:47

and uh, you know, we're getting to the

58:50

point now where you're going to be able

58:52

to command a robot with with language.

58:55

Before, you know, it was a little bit

58:56

more technical. Maybe you you would need

58:59

some very I guess special type of

59:01

prompting or programming, but it'll get

59:04

to the point. It's getting to the point,

59:05

right? They call it lang language

59:07

steering where I can tell a robot, hey,

59:10

uh that cup over there, can you put it

59:12

in the dishwasher for me and it'd be

59:13

able to do it. And so we're we're seeing

59:15

some early uh you know, signs of life

59:17

there. And uh another innovation, right?

59:19

You and with with the world of LLM, you

59:21

saw a lot of what they call emerging

59:23

capabilities. One of the emerging

59:25

capabilities you you you saw was in

59:27

context learning. The ability for you to

59:29

just show uh you know an LLM something,

59:32

right? You you tell it, hey look uh this

59:35

is what I'm dealing with and it'd be

59:36

able to remember that and and and use

59:38

that context to give you an answer. Uh

59:40

that is happening with robotics as well

59:42

where some of the more frontier models

59:44

you're saying hey robot um maybe you

59:47

should uh draw a letter like this or

59:50

maybe when you're putting a cup you

59:52

should place it upright as opposed to

59:54

like this position right and it's

59:56

remember that so there's some really

59:57

exciting I would consider like emerging

60:00

capabilities that are emerging are going

60:01

to continue to emerge

60:03

>> that is so fun I think Elon even

60:05

mentioned one time that you know you

60:06

could teach something one shot like

60:08

you've never been taught it before But

60:09

you go, "This is the way I want you to

60:11

make my coffee." Okay. This way. This

60:14

way, this way. It's got to be exactly

60:16

this. And then

60:17

>> Yeah.

60:18

>> It's so exciting. I think we're all uh

60:20

one of the reasons, you know, Scott and

60:22

I started these started doing these

60:24

videos is we're witnessing history

60:26

happen from like when everybody said it

60:28

was nothing. Now we're kind of at that

60:31

toddler stage. Okay. We're watching

60:33

robots walk, run, uh we're watching them

60:36

do these simple factory tasks and then

60:41

they're they're on version three, right?

60:43

And then there's this leap that you're

60:44

talking about, but uh I still don't know

60:47

when it will happen, but just like AI,

60:49

you can't predict it. It can happen

60:51

really quick. It could take two years,

60:52

but generally it happens sooner than you

60:55

think. Just the way it's happening with

60:57

AI at this point, it's just coming

60:58

sooner than we anybody's predicting. Um,

61:01

and like you said earlier, the AI, the

61:03

work that they're doing with AI

61:04

translates,

61:06

>> right,

61:07

>> uh, to the physical AI except for the

61:09

actual hardware production and

61:11

manufacturing. That's why you guys have

61:12

to go and kick actually open it apart,

61:16

right? So, you tore apart that uh,

61:19

that bot from China. Yeah, you tore it

61:21

apart, Scott.

61:23

>> Well, yeah, I didn't. Monroe did. So,

61:25

when associates had a a unitry G1 and

61:29

they disassembled it

61:31

>> and we did a bpsy and we had a good

61:34

chance to kind of look at the different

61:35

components to get an idea how they were

61:37

manufactured, how they could probably

61:38

improve some of their manufacturing

61:39

techniques.

61:41

And so, there was actually some

61:43

suggestions that I think would be good

61:44

not only for unitry but anyone else

61:46

thinking of putting together a bot.

61:48

>> Good. Okay. Well, you you you got Scott

61:50

Walter uh joined the company. He he's

61:54

the one that checks out how if this is a

61:55

demo or not. He he knows what he's

61:57

doing. Tell us uh how do how do people

61:59

find you uh Andrew and how do they find

62:02

Robo Strategy?

62:03

>> Uh you can find us at robo strategy onx.

62:06

Uh you can also find us at

62:08

robostrategy.co.

62:10

That's our website. And we're going to

62:12

be putting out a lot of great content

62:14

information uh deep dives and interviews

62:17

with the founders of our portfolio

62:19

companies. So there's a lot of exciting

62:22

uh content that we hope to share with

62:23

everybody in the future.

62:24

>> Great. And you're on NASDAQ BT, but uh

62:28

again just general thing, this is not a

62:30

financial advice. Every person has a

62:32

very different position. You should look

62:34

at all sorts of and um you know your own

62:36

scenario. We don't know if you should or

62:39

shouldn't. It's your call. You decide.

62:41

But human robot is exciting and it's fun

62:44

and it's the next thing that's going to

62:46

go uh skyrocket. Thank you very much

62:49

both of you. I appreciate it. Thank you,

62:50

Andrew. Thank you, Scott.

62:52

>> Yeah. Thank you, Herbert. Keep building.

62:54

>> I've created a website that is the most

62:56

comprehensive resource for the Tesla

62:58

investor. Please check it out. Simply go

62:59

to my website at herbalm.com.

Interactive Summary

This video features a discussion with Andrew Kang, CEO of Robo Strategy, and Dr. Scott Walter, regarding the emerging humanoid robotics market. They explain the massive growth potential for this industry, the importance of distinguishing between real progress and staged marketing demos, and the strategies they use to identify and invest in promising, early-stage private companies. The conversation also covers the challenges of scaling manufacturing, the competitive landscape between American and Chinese robotics, and the launch of the NASDAQ-listed 'BOT' strategy, which aims to provide retail investors access to the private robotics market.

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