If I Was Starting Off With $1 Million Dollars Today, Here's What I Would Do... | Guy Spier
369 segments
the most interesting thing is the money
is just a vehicle for playing the game
of how to
constantly recreate yourself innovate on
yourself and pursue you know um and so
yeah it I I love the the conversations
how yeah money asking the money
questions are the least interesting in
my opinion um but as a final question I
do have to ask one money question for
the audience because unfortunately this
it breaks my heart that this will get
the most views um but we're all about
views I'm a social media slot let's face
it well and yeah I mean like the the
understanding the psychology and and
trying to live a beautiful life is
um yeah I hope everyone um has just been
profoundly impacted by what you've just
said to me uh and everyone watching but
uh for everyone who does want you to
answer this um if you were starting with
a million dollars today what would you
be doing differently someone asked
Warren buff at that at the birkshire
meeting I'm curious what your answer
would
be differently to what I'm doing now y
if you were starting just with a million
dollars of your uh own money or or
Capital you've you've
raised um so if it's a million dollars
the first thing for me is that I'm
getting a job as well so I'm doing it
part-time because I want I I want to
preserve that $1 million for
investing and um I don't want to draw
down on it for living so I'm getting a
job and I'm and I'm paying all of my
living expenses from my job and I'm
going to try and find a job that pays my
living expenses and allows me to invest
so I don't want to pay my life expenses
out of the returns and that part of that
is just take the pressure off I know
that all need to do is compound that
capital a million dollars at any rate of
return but if I'm living you know on
$660,000 a year then I'm drawing down I
don't want to be forced to have to make
a 6% return just to stay even say so you
know and obviously given the Way I Live
Now if that were the case I'd have to
massively cut expenses I have three
children going through college all sorts
of expenses so so now we just talk about
the investing I've sorted out my life
expens as part of it and um and you know
you pay down debt don't have any Debt
Pay down the morgage get rid of that so
so really be able to just
invest I think that what then I would do
differently to what I did and what I'm
doing today
is I I would want to take higher risks
with my
investing uh if I'm starting so it
depends what age I am let's say you're
you're under 30 yeah so so I think I I
want to divide that million
into at least 10 buckets but it might be
as many as 20
buckets and I'm going to take
um hopefully so so I'm going to try and
make bets where none of them can turn
out as a complete loss but but they are
they they all have a high enough
probability of returning multiples of my
money
and I and I I'm going
to and the key is to divide it into the
pots to enough pots that I can keep
going I'm not going to give up that I'm
not going to get
scared and um if I'm if I've got big bar
brass balls like Mish pabra I may only
need three or four pots but even Mish
went to 10 by 10 so he was talking about
10% I think that for me it's it's 20%
and
so I got to keep making those bets and
um I'm not sure how many pots because I
think that I need to make those bets
over a 5year period minimum so maybe
it's two bets a year and then it's it's
10 bets so it's uh so then is actually
10% each time so I'm drawing down the
million dollars would you be flipping
through value line would you be oh I see
uh but to find two bets a year would you
be digging through the weeds so so
everybody has their own journey and
their own story and it's important to
own that jourian story and not to regret
that it's not a different story in my
story I had enormous fears of losing
money losing the confidence of my first
investor was my father and so um I I had
some bets like that that worked out
enormously but I just didn't put very
much money into them an example was uh
Duff and Phelps where given the amount
of money I was managing I ought have put
a million dollars in I was managing
about 10 and instead I put two 00,000
and that $1 million would have turned
into $7 million instead 200,000 turned
into 1.4 still not a terrible result but
but um I didn't
invest um enough so so I was all the way
through the life of the fund I've had
shares of Nestle Nestle is a wonderful
company isn't going anywhere but it's
not going to get you 7x in three years
or two years or whatever it was that it
was in Duff and Phelps um so if if I was
doing if I was starting my 30s and was
doing it again I would have way more of
those and if you take the scenario where
my job is covered yeah each one of those
bets is a Duff and Fels types bet I'm
putting 5 to 10% of the net worth you
talked about a million dollars into that
and where am I looking if you want to
find ideas that are going to be um you
know uh 7x your money in in that period
of time you're looking at sub billion
dollar market market cap companies on
the whole it's far less likely to happen
so where where am I going um I'm I'm
flipping through value line I'm uh
looking at um value investors Club
Seeking Alpha you know I'm I'm going to
things like the Zurich project I'm going
to Value X I'm going to the Burkshire
meeting I'm talking through best ideas
I'm trying to develop network with
people who have good ideas I'm running
screens but all of that you know
um I love this so this came up in the
recent podcast that Mish pabai had with
Shan Puri he said an idea is like an
everybody's got
one so ideas are like an
everybody's got one at the end of the
day you know I have to so it's not hard
to come across the ideas or so so so the
thing is at some point one has to
actually say okay I'm going to commit
now and it's going to be in an uncertain
environment you're not going to see
green you're going to see Amber it's not
going to be perfect that's that so so
that's a kind of like a level of
risk-taking in the past I was
uncomfortable with because of this so
ugity stuff I want to go with things
that are far shorer bets I'm trying to
find something that's a 7x and also is a
Shore bet every now and those now and
then those will come up but I'm going to
take things where it's not a sure bet
but it's still but still a potential 7x
and I actually have to move to and then
where I find them is constantly going to
be changing uh but but I need to try all
sorts of different Avenues I was reading
recently a wonderful piece of research
that was produced four or five years ago
where they looked at companies and I can
show with you the the
research uh that had had done sort of
like 100 Baggers or 50 Baggers they
looked at where those those ideas came
from and they show that there was a kind
of a for example to the countries where
those companies existed and funnily
enough the um there you know the
countries like the Scandinavian
countries score quite highly in that
category and years surprising because
it's a social welfare state with high
taxes and things exact reason for that
who knows but it might be you know it
turned out that the aim Market in the UK
had a pretty high number of those
companies so maybe I'm saying look at
aim companies maybe I'm looking at small
caps maybe I'm like running F finding
what work but at some point you got to
make a move you know and Warren caus
them wrinkles so yeah I'd be doing more
of those
wrinkles and I would have been
developing the muscle that so the muscle
in me for all sorts of reasons is not as
de well developed as it could be of
being willing to look at wrinkles things
where there's something going on special
situations that makes it an unusual
valuation and a very good likelihood of
a very very high return but where
there's also some hair on it and uh uh
you know that's a muscle that you can
strengthen that that that muscle is far
stronger in Mish than it is in me and
they're all sorts of reasons for that
partly it's temperament in Mish partly
it's a very unusual childhood that Mish
had mish's father was an entrepreneur
who went bankrupt many times that's Mish
has told that story a few times and uh
and Mish
learned that that was okay he's not
afraid of of those kinds of high risks
potential losses and that gives him an
unusual orientation towards risk which I
don't
have um and so I would I would be
working hard to strengthen that muscle
at a younger
age yeah that's what I'd be doing with
the million dollars thank you so much
well you know I sort of come back on
myself and say you look at my last
letter to
investors the most important thing
survival is everything so I think in all
of that I'm
I I'm at the same time so I want to
optimize that better I think what I'm
trying to say is that if I look at what
I did for understandable reasons I was
way more risk Avers and conservative
than I should have been and that's okay
I forgive myself I think that I should
have been willing to turn that dial up
in the ways that I've
described but with the
constraint of never uh risking going out
of business and I would say that when
when Warren Gets asked that
question he's so confident at that yeah
but and and probably Warren is right to
be confident but for every Warren
there's probably a million people who
are not right to be confident and so
what's the probability that I'm Warren
what's the probability that I'm not
there's a far higher likelihood that I'm
not Warren so even if I think that I'm
going to be successful assume you're not
you know and forgive me I'm I'm just
like I'm adding length to this I hope
that's positive not negative it's a
positive
um so I you know uh the inter I've got
right now SCH um he enjoyed this was
like assume God is watching you and it
doesn't matter whether you believe in
God or not you know God is wired into
our genes uh most humans evolved with
some idea conception of some kind of God
so so if you don't believe in God it's
not a problem just activate that part of
your genetic makeup that believes that
there is a God we all have that and be
an atheist and do this and now God Is
Watching Me
and if I invest in that thing God is
going to make it go down by 50% only if
I invest in it if I don't invest in it
it's going to go straight up to the moon
but the minute he sees that I invested
in it it's going to go down by 50% at
least because God is going to say are
you serious you know did you really want
to invest in that show me how serious
you were you know assume God's going to
do that to you on every investment you
know and um and then there's another
thing which is that every risk that I
don't investigate is the one that God's
going to make show up in the so if I you
know it's kind of like the uncertainty
principle you know it's like if I
investigate it won't show up and it will
turn out to being useless but if I don't
investigate it God will dafa is the
Hebrew expression will just to be just
to be that way we'll make it show up you
know so um assume that and what so one
of the reasons why I love maths after
this I'm going to D with
mathematicians um it's like the negative
the square root of NE of of minus one so
fasc you know for the longest time ma
there were mathematicians who like that
doesn't exist and we don't do maths with
with the square of negative one for a
certain period of time there were
mathematicians who didn't accept the
existence of negative numbers how could
there be negative numbers you either had
objects or there weren't any a minus one
you know until they finally accepted the
number line I find it FAS fting that
those those ideas about God watching me
is extremely powerful and you don't have
to believe God exists for that idea to
be powerful and to be effect action so
yeah but it's fun to talk to you I hope
that I hope that I've been helpful i' I
just find myself blathering on no very
helpful we'll find out by the number of
video views That's How we'll find out
that's true yes especially the last part
there in that question uh yeah people
people come for the the the gossip and
what would you do with the million
dollars but we're going to keep them by
uh having the here's what actually
matters hopefully in life um so thank
you so much guy really been a pleasure
I've been looking forward to hosting in
my office for a very long time and so
ever since you came out of the Woodworks
I don't know about three years ago maybe
it's been such a pleasure getting to
know you and uh it's been really fun for
me to be at a place in my life where
I'm you know you're a highly selected
person so I didn't I didn't I didn't
walk out on the street and pick up a
Jeremy Stickney Jeremy Stickney sent me
an email you identified me you sent me a
message was it on Twitter uh no just
email it was an email yes that's right
but I I did some I mean Jeremy told me
about you told me about a little bit
about what you'd worked on I was like
wow I've never met a guy like that the
only guy I know the only or one other
it's not the only one connection like
that is s balky who sent me a message on
Twitter and I I in your case I looked to
see the podcast that you'd worked on and
I was like oh my God how many how many
how many subscriptions was it at the
time uh at the time 3 million yeah yeah
I was like my god I've never talked to a
guy 3 million so and in this case um s
gets in touch with me and uh I look and
I see my God he's got 100,000 followers
so I messaged him back within a week we
were talking on the phone within two
weeks I introduced him to Mish pabai and
he's now part of our lce lce work groups
quite incredible
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The speaker discusses the nature of money, stating it's a vehicle for self-reinvention and innovation rather than an end in itself. While acknowledging money questions often get the most views, the speaker poses a hypothetical: if starting with $1 million today, they would get a part-time job to cover living expenses, preserving the $1 million for investment without pressure to generate returns for survival. They'd also pay down debt, like a mortgage. For investing the $1 million, especially if under 30, the speaker would take higher risks, dividing the capital into 10-20 "buckets" to make high-probability bets that could yield multiples of the initial investment. This approach requires a long-term perspective (minimum 5 years) and the willingness to continually make new bets, even if some don't pan out. The speaker reflects on past risk aversion, citing an example where a more aggressive investment in Duff and Phelps could have yielded significantly higher returns. They emphasize the importance of developing a "muscle" for risk-taking, drawing parallels to investors like Mohnish Pabrai who have a stronger inclination for high-risk, high-reward opportunities. The speaker also touches upon the psychological aspect of risk-taking, suggesting concepts like "God is watching me" can influence investment decisions by creating accountability and highlighting potential unseen risks. Ultimately, the advice is to balance aggressive, high-return investing with the fundamental principle of survival, avoiding going out of business, and to be realistic about one's own risk tolerance compared to that of highly successful investors like Warren Buffett.
Videos recently processed by our community