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If I Was Starting Off With $1 Million Dollars Today, Here's What I Would Do... | Guy Spier

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If I Was Starting Off With $1 Million Dollars Today, Here's What I Would Do... | Guy Spier

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369 segments

0:00

the most interesting thing is the money

0:01

is just a vehicle for playing the game

0:03

of how to

0:06

constantly recreate yourself innovate on

0:09

yourself and pursue you know um and so

0:14

yeah it I I love the the conversations

0:18

how yeah money asking the money

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questions are the least interesting in

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my opinion um but as a final question I

0:25

do have to ask one money question for

0:27

the audience because unfortunately this

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it breaks my heart that this will get

0:31

the most views um but we're all about

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views I'm a social media slot let's face

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it well and yeah I mean like the the

0:41

understanding the psychology and and

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trying to live a beautiful life is

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um yeah I hope everyone um has just been

0:49

profoundly impacted by what you've just

0:51

said to me uh and everyone watching but

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uh for everyone who does want you to

0:57

answer this um if you were starting with

1:00

a million dollars today what would you

1:02

be doing differently someone asked

1:04

Warren buff at that at the birkshire

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meeting I'm curious what your answer

1:08

would

1:09

be differently to what I'm doing now y

1:13

if you were starting just with a million

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dollars of your uh own money or or

1:18

Capital you've you've

1:20

raised um so if it's a million dollars

1:23

the first thing for me is that I'm

1:25

getting a job as well so I'm doing it

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part-time because I want I I want to

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preserve that $1 million for

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investing and um I don't want to draw

1:38

down on it for living so I'm getting a

1:41

job and I'm and I'm paying all of my

1:45

living expenses from my job and I'm

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going to try and find a job that pays my

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living expenses and allows me to invest

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so I don't want to pay my life expenses

1:54

out of the returns and that part of that

1:57

is just take the pressure off I know

1:59

that all need to do is compound that

2:01

capital a million dollars at any rate of

2:03

return but if I'm living you know on

2:07

$660,000 a year then I'm drawing down I

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don't want to be forced to have to make

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a 6% return just to stay even say so you

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know and obviously given the Way I Live

2:18

Now if that were the case I'd have to

2:21

massively cut expenses I have three

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children going through college all sorts

2:24

of expenses so so now we just talk about

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the investing I've sorted out my life

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expens as part of it and um and you know

2:34

you pay down debt don't have any Debt

2:37

Pay down the morgage get rid of that so

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so really be able to just

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invest I think that what then I would do

2:45

differently to what I did and what I'm

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doing today

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is I I would want to take higher risks

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with my

2:54

investing uh if I'm starting so it

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depends what age I am let's say you're

3:00

you're under 30 yeah so so I think I I

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want to divide that million

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into at least 10 buckets but it might be

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as many as 20

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buckets and I'm going to take

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um hopefully so so I'm going to try and

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make bets where none of them can turn

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out as a complete loss but but they are

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they they all have a high enough

3:27

probability of returning multiples of my

3:29

money

3:31

and I and I I'm going

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to and the key is to divide it into the

3:35

pots to enough pots that I can keep

3:39

going I'm not going to give up that I'm

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not going to get

3:43

scared and um if I'm if I've got big bar

3:47

brass balls like Mish pabra I may only

3:49

need three or four pots but even Mish

3:52

went to 10 by 10 so he was talking about

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10% I think that for me it's it's 20%

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and

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so I got to keep making those bets and

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um I'm not sure how many pots because I

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think that I need to make those bets

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over a 5year period minimum so maybe

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it's two bets a year and then it's it's

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10 bets so it's uh so then is actually

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10% each time so I'm drawing down the

4:15

million dollars would you be flipping

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through value line would you be oh I see

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uh but to find two bets a year would you

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be digging through the weeds so so

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everybody has their own journey and

4:27

their own story and it's important to

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own that jourian story and not to regret

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that it's not a different story in my

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story I had enormous fears of losing

4:37

money losing the confidence of my first

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investor was my father and so um I I had

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some bets like that that worked out

4:46

enormously but I just didn't put very

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much money into them an example was uh

4:51

Duff and Phelps where given the amount

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of money I was managing I ought have put

4:55

a million dollars in I was managing

4:56

about 10 and instead I put two 00,000

5:00

and that $1 million would have turned

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into $7 million instead 200,000 turned

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into 1.4 still not a terrible result but

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but um I didn't

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invest um enough so so I was all the way

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through the life of the fund I've had

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shares of Nestle Nestle is a wonderful

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company isn't going anywhere but it's

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not going to get you 7x in three years

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or two years or whatever it was that it

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was in Duff and Phelps um so if if I was

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doing if I was starting my 30s and was

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doing it again I would have way more of

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those and if you take the scenario where

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my job is covered yeah each one of those

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bets is a Duff and Fels types bet I'm

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putting 5 to 10% of the net worth you

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talked about a million dollars into that

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and where am I looking if you want to

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find ideas that are going to be um you

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know uh 7x your money in in that period

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of time you're looking at sub billion

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dollar market market cap companies on

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the whole it's far less likely to happen

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so where where am I going um I'm I'm

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flipping through value line I'm uh

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looking at um value investors Club

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Seeking Alpha you know I'm I'm going to

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things like the Zurich project I'm going

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to Value X I'm going to the Burkshire

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meeting I'm talking through best ideas

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I'm trying to develop network with

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people who have good ideas I'm running

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screens but all of that you know

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um I love this so this came up in the

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recent podcast that Mish pabai had with

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Shan Puri he said an idea is like an

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everybody's got

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one so ideas are like an

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everybody's got one at the end of the

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day you know I have to so it's not hard

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to come across the ideas or so so so the

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thing is at some point one has to

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actually say okay I'm going to commit

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now and it's going to be in an uncertain

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environment you're not going to see

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green you're going to see Amber it's not

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going to be perfect that's that so so

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that's a kind of like a level of

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risk-taking in the past I was

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uncomfortable with because of this so

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ugity stuff I want to go with things

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that are far shorer bets I'm trying to

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find something that's a 7x and also is a

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Shore bet every now and those now and

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then those will come up but I'm going to

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take things where it's not a sure bet

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but it's still but still a potential 7x

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and I actually have to move to and then

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where I find them is constantly going to

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be changing uh but but I need to try all

7:39

sorts of different Avenues I was reading

7:41

recently a wonderful piece of research

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that was produced four or five years ago

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where they looked at companies and I can

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show with you the the

7:49

research uh that had had done sort of

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like 100 Baggers or 50 Baggers they

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looked at where those those ideas came

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from and they show that there was a kind

7:59

of a for example to the countries where

8:01

those companies existed and funnily

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enough the um there you know the

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countries like the Scandinavian

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countries score quite highly in that

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category and years surprising because

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it's a social welfare state with high

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taxes and things exact reason for that

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who knows but it might be you know it

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turned out that the aim Market in the UK

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had a pretty high number of those

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companies so maybe I'm saying look at

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aim companies maybe I'm looking at small

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caps maybe I'm like running F finding

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what work but at some point you got to

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make a move you know and Warren caus

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them wrinkles so yeah I'd be doing more

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of those

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wrinkles and I would have been

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developing the muscle that so the muscle

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in me for all sorts of reasons is not as

8:43

de well developed as it could be of

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being willing to look at wrinkles things

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where there's something going on special

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situations that makes it an unusual

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valuation and a very good likelihood of

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a very very high return but where

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there's also some hair on it and uh uh

9:01

you know that's a muscle that you can

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strengthen that that that muscle is far

9:04

stronger in Mish than it is in me and

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they're all sorts of reasons for that

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partly it's temperament in Mish partly

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it's a very unusual childhood that Mish

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had mish's father was an entrepreneur

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who went bankrupt many times that's Mish

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has told that story a few times and uh

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and Mish

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learned that that was okay he's not

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afraid of of those kinds of high risks

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potential losses and that gives him an

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unusual orientation towards risk which I

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don't

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have um and so I would I would be

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working hard to strengthen that muscle

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at a younger

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age yeah that's what I'd be doing with

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the million dollars thank you so much

9:46

well you know I sort of come back on

9:48

myself and say you look at my last

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letter to

9:53

investors the most important thing

9:55

survival is everything so I think in all

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of that I'm

10:00

I I'm at the same time so I want to

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optimize that better I think what I'm

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trying to say is that if I look at what

10:05

I did for understandable reasons I was

10:09

way more risk Avers and conservative

10:12

than I should have been and that's okay

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I forgive myself I think that I should

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have been willing to turn that dial up

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in the ways that I've

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described but with the

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constraint of never uh risking going out

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of business and I would say that when

10:29

when Warren Gets asked that

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question he's so confident at that yeah

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but and and probably Warren is right to

10:37

be confident but for every Warren

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there's probably a million people who

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are not right to be confident and so

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what's the probability that I'm Warren

10:44

what's the probability that I'm not

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there's a far higher likelihood that I'm

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not Warren so even if I think that I'm

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going to be successful assume you're not

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you know and forgive me I'm I'm just

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like I'm adding length to this I hope

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that's positive not negative it's a

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positive

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um so I you know uh the inter I've got

11:03

right now SCH um he enjoyed this was

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like assume God is watching you and it

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doesn't matter whether you believe in

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God or not you know God is wired into

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our genes uh most humans evolved with

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some idea conception of some kind of God

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so so if you don't believe in God it's

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not a problem just activate that part of

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your genetic makeup that believes that

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there is a God we all have that and be

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an atheist and do this and now God Is

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Watching Me

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and if I invest in that thing God is

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going to make it go down by 50% only if

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I invest in it if I don't invest in it

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it's going to go straight up to the moon

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but the minute he sees that I invested

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in it it's going to go down by 50% at

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least because God is going to say are

11:47

you serious you know did you really want

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to invest in that show me how serious

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you were you know assume God's going to

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do that to you on every investment you

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know and um and then there's another

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thing which is that every risk that I

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don't investigate is the one that God's

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going to make show up in the so if I you

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know it's kind of like the uncertainty

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principle you know it's like if I

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investigate it won't show up and it will

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turn out to being useless but if I don't

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investigate it God will dafa is the

12:17

Hebrew expression will just to be just

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to be that way we'll make it show up you

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know so um assume that and what so one

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of the reasons why I love maths after

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this I'm going to D with

12:33

mathematicians um it's like the negative

12:36

the square root of NE of of minus one so

12:39

fasc you know for the longest time ma

12:40

there were mathematicians who like that

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doesn't exist and we don't do maths with

12:44

with the square of negative one for a

12:46

certain period of time there were

12:47

mathematicians who didn't accept the

12:49

existence of negative numbers how could

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there be negative numbers you either had

12:53

objects or there weren't any a minus one

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you know until they finally accepted the

12:57

number line I find it FAS fting that

13:00

those those ideas about God watching me

13:02

is extremely powerful and you don't have

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to believe God exists for that idea to

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be powerful and to be effect action so

13:10

yeah but it's fun to talk to you I hope

13:12

that I hope that I've been helpful i' I

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just find myself blathering on no very

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helpful we'll find out by the number of

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video views That's How we'll find out

13:22

that's true yes especially the last part

13:24

there in that question uh yeah people

13:28

people come for the the the gossip and

13:32

what would you do with the million

13:33

dollars but we're going to keep them by

13:35

uh having the here's what actually

13:38

matters hopefully in life um so thank

13:40

you so much guy really been a pleasure

13:43

I've been looking forward to hosting in

13:44

my office for a very long time and so

13:47

ever since you came out of the Woodworks

13:48

I don't know about three years ago maybe

13:51

it's been such a pleasure getting to

13:52

know you and uh it's been really fun for

13:56

me to be at a place in my life where

14:00

I'm you know you're a highly selected

14:02

person so I didn't I didn't I didn't

14:06

walk out on the street and pick up a

14:08

Jeremy Stickney Jeremy Stickney sent me

14:10

an email you identified me you sent me a

14:13

message was it on Twitter uh no just

14:16

email it was an email yes that's right

14:19

but I I did some I mean Jeremy told me

14:22

about you told me about a little bit

14:25

about what you'd worked on I was like

14:27

wow I've never met a guy like that the

14:29

only guy I know the only or one other

14:32

it's not the only one connection like

14:34

that is s balky who sent me a message on

14:38

Twitter and I I in your case I looked to

14:40

see the podcast that you'd worked on and

14:43

I was like oh my God how many how many

14:45

how many subscriptions was it at the

14:46

time uh at the time 3 million yeah yeah

14:49

I was like my god I've never talked to a

14:51

guy 3 million so and in this case um s

14:55

gets in touch with me and uh I look and

14:58

I see my God he's got 100,000 followers

15:01

so I messaged him back within a week we

15:03

were talking on the phone within two

15:05

weeks I introduced him to Mish pabai and

15:07

he's now part of our lce lce work groups

15:10

quite incredible

Interactive Summary

The speaker discusses the nature of money, stating it's a vehicle for self-reinvention and innovation rather than an end in itself. While acknowledging money questions often get the most views, the speaker poses a hypothetical: if starting with $1 million today, they would get a part-time job to cover living expenses, preserving the $1 million for investment without pressure to generate returns for survival. They'd also pay down debt, like a mortgage. For investing the $1 million, especially if under 30, the speaker would take higher risks, dividing the capital into 10-20 "buckets" to make high-probability bets that could yield multiples of the initial investment. This approach requires a long-term perspective (minimum 5 years) and the willingness to continually make new bets, even if some don't pan out. The speaker reflects on past risk aversion, citing an example where a more aggressive investment in Duff and Phelps could have yielded significantly higher returns. They emphasize the importance of developing a "muscle" for risk-taking, drawing parallels to investors like Mohnish Pabrai who have a stronger inclination for high-risk, high-reward opportunities. The speaker also touches upon the psychological aspect of risk-taking, suggesting concepts like "God is watching me" can influence investment decisions by creating accountability and highlighting potential unseen risks. Ultimately, the advice is to balance aggressive, high-return investing with the fundamental principle of survival, avoiding going out of business, and to be realistic about one's own risk tolerance compared to that of highly successful investors like Warren Buffett.

Suggested questions

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