Okay, so I have been trying to analyze

our infamous account 8888

which is kind of going viral right now.

I think because it has so many views

like I think I I mentioned this account

yesterday with where it had like around

60,000 views and now it's like doubled

to more than 115,000 views on on this

account alone.

Let me just uh refresh it one more time

and we can see how much profit he made

today. So today uh 1,500 and then the

last week he has made $239,000

and um yesterday I did some I think it

was yesterday where I posted a video

about my theory about this account and

how he did it. And I have now come to

the conclusion that some of the things I

said was not correct. So I thought and

this is also what other people have been

talking about on on X is that he's

basically arbitrageing

and um you know hedging all his bets.

You know he's trying to you know make

bets where the the the total size of his

trades is um below $1. So he's like not

directional in his trade. he just takes

both sides and makes a money on the

spread or something like that. Now today

I have been trying to look a little bit

more into his data because you can on

poly market get all the data almost for

example we can um go to the data API

poly market and we can get the activity

of certain markets

for example here this market here with

this user and this user here I know you

can't probably see it but this is our

infamous account 88888

and um I I've done a few um

few di diagrams here with the help of

some vibe coding and I've analyzed some

of the the 15-minute markets. I only

done five markets now and this is from

4th of January

and I'm probably going to continue work

on this a little bit more and let you

know. But so so what I've discovered is

so if you look at this chart here, this

shows the total amount amount of shares

that he has during the trading session

of a 15-minute market. You can see here

how he starts of course at at zero and

then the timestamps down here is

actually not true. Um but the data is is

is correct. So on average the first

trade he does on a 15minute market is

like within the first 5 to 7 seconds.

And what I've seen only on these five

markets is that he's very

uh directional in his trades. So, you

can see here how he buys um the down

shares quite aggressively in the start

up to 5,000 shares and then it kind of

stagnates and then he buys again. He

also buys on the upshares.

But you can see here how it's for sure

it has a directional bias but not to

such an extent that he only takes one of

the sides.

And if you take that another market

here, it's it's very similar but with

some change. You could see how he's very

aggressive in the beginning to buy up

the shares and then he does it um a

little bit on the up shares as well. You

know, like the the market will resolve

to up uh just to clarify and then it's

kind of stagnates and then he kind of

adds on to his positions. And this is

something I mentioned the other video

that I believe that he would add on to

his positions. But but my theory was

that he would try to make sure that the

average cost of both sides would be less

than a dollar to lock in a sure profit.

But this is actually not the case

because when we aggregate all the shares

and how much he's paid for the shares

often it it's actually more than um uh

the average is actually more than $1. So

so he's actually very directional in his

his trading.

And now for the five markets so far and

keep in mind this five markets is only 1

hour and 15 minutes. So there's a lot of

data. Um

he's very much uh he start to trade on

the down and and I don't know maybe he

has some kind of a metric in his system

where he just before the market starts

he he already have a bias towards a a

direction or not

and then of obviously he there's some

triggers and we don't really know this

and this is what I'm trying to figure

out and I still don't know it how he

determines the direction of the price.

It could be from a you know an external

source somewhere. Maybe he has a data

source that's faster and then when he

can see that the price has gone up on

Bitcoin then he buys uh shares very fast

and um you know explosively because it

is a lot of trades that he does. So I've

analyzed the amount of trades that he

does. So, for example, if you if you see

here the the the first market, the 15

minute here, that's 4th of January from

11:30 to 11:45

p.m. He's done a total of 189 trades in

that duration. So, 189 actual fulfilled

trades, which is uh 16 and a half

fulfilled trades uh per minute, but his

activity is actually more than that. So,

he does a trade, but not all of them

gets fulfilled. he does more than a

thousand trades in a 15-minute period

window. So, it's like all the time he

does a trade. You can see here also from

this data that that for this specific

market, he has deployed around $18,000

uh dollars in in in liquidity to the

market where he just buys all the the

different sides and his positions is

like from a few dollars to a couple of

hundred. And if you times that with

almost 200 trades, well, it adds up. and

his um return is crazy you know like for

this one is 75% return but of course

some of them is not doesn't give a

return

and uh we also have to consider on these

15-minute market there is a fee

structure which I also mentioned in the

previous video where you pay uh actually

up to one and a half% in fees in the

middle of the market where you know like

if the price is around uh half a dollar

and then if you go towards the edges

just like where the price is like maybe

90 cents or 10 cents, then you pay a

much smaller fee.

And um and it doesn't seem like he he he

cares about that. Like he just do does

the trades no matter when in the in the

time. It starts very early and then he

uh he stops uh like a few minutes before

the market closes.

And um if you take the third trade here,

it's the same. He has like a bias

towards the red one specifically and

then it just accumulates it. Um, and if

you take the next one here, again, the

red one, I don't know if he uses the

outcome of a previous market to

determine his direction in the next

market. Now, when I've analyzed these

five markets, it does seem like he takes

the direction of the outcome of the

previous market. But I don't know if

this is just a coincidence because it is

only five markets that I've analyzed. uh

at this moment

and you can see here this is the only

market of the five that I've analyzed

that he has a bias towards the up shares

the up outcome

um but very like not aggressive like the

other you can see how he starts by just

putting a little bit and um but again

very early in the in the trading session

and then he you know here he adds a lot

to the the the down outcome and then

just adds to the position and then it

actually flips down here uh up here

sorry um again but again it's it's a big

mystery how he actually does it right

and I've not really been become any

smarter on on how he uh determines you

know what to buy and when but we know

for sure that it's not like an arbitrage

he's trying to do at least that's my

conclusion maybe you can try to draw

your own conclusion or if you have a

different opinion you can try to put a

comment down below and see if we can

figure this one out because this is uh

crazy. Now, this chart here is maybe a

little bit hard to read and I don't know

if we can use this to conclude anything.

But what I found interesting with this

chart is if we look at the these lines

here, the dotted lines, this is the

total amount of shares you have on the

up and down outcomes. up being the green

and red being down outcome. And then

here I measured I mean I mean I just

recorded the price of the shares and you

can see how when accumulates during the

first u period of the trading session

here there's not really so much

difference. you know, it's kind of equal

in terms of how many shares that he

accumulates

and that kind of fits well within the

price being very closely tied together.

We can kind of see here that the prices

diverge a lot around here and this is

where he kind of buys up and the same

here and then around the middle of the

session is kind of where you know it's

hard to draw any real conclusions but

the price does start to diverge

here a lot and I don't know maybe it

kind of looks like we are getting a

higher you know spread between the up

and down outcome in terms of how many

shares that he has accumulated. ated.

See here like here we have more red than

green compared to the the previous

period and then when we cross around

around here can you see it? Yeah, you

can. The spread becomes even greater and

that kind of fits within

spread of the prices. So so it seems

like the more difference in you know in

price the same goes with with with like

the amount of shares that he's

purchased.

I don't know. Can we use this for

anything? I'm not sure. Um but um I'll

I'll keep keep looking at this a little

bit more and um see if I can find some

more

at least find some better conclusions

than this. But I think for sure we can

conclude that it's very directional bias

strategy that he's using. He's basically

trying to predict in some way but but

not to the extent where he knows for

sure in the beginning of the trading

session that oh yeah it will become down

but he has a an assumption and then his

trading bot just recalculates and

accumulates the shares as data comes in

somehow.

So yeah, that's what I wanted to show

you in this video. And if you have the

same interest as me in analyzing this

guy, please leave your

ideas down below and we can try to

figure this out together and make a

trading bot that can make us how much is

it again?

make us 200,000

239,000

weekly

591,000

monthly all time. I mean, it's just

crazy.

So, yeah, that's it. Hope you enjoyed it

and I will try to keep you posted on my

next video about this poly market

trading bot. See you next time.