Redwire stock or RDW just hit investors

with a surprise and it might be the

worst possible timing. After reaching an

all-time high up to these levels around

$2664,

the stock sold off drastically after the

Blue Origin explosion. And the question

is, does this change any of the

long-term thesis or just a simply a

pullback in the short term? That's what

we're going to talk about in today's

video. I also want to talk about a data

center thing that was recently released

that we'll touch on. This is still one

of the most compelling stocks to watch

from a financial perspective in the

space sector. And if you want to stay up

to date with space sector, space

defense, AI infrastructure, and you're

trying to look at photonics and quantum,

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together. So again, a surge up to $26.64

64 and today apparently we come out with

some new dilution RDW

stock. Let's take a look at general

news. You've got 500 million shares. The

$500 million reason for a drop today of

the stock seeing it drop 40% since May.

And just for preface, we have been

covering this stock for over a year now

since 2024. And even around this $4 and

$5 range, we were looking at a fair

value for this company between 12 to $15

a share. There's three steps we'll go

through to analyze Redwire so you can

get an idea. First is going to be the

market going through the financials and

the real world usage. Number two, we'll

go through the analysis that's going to

touch on the financials, the technicals,

and the fundamentals, the news. And then

number three, we'll go through the

riskto-reward and exactly what the plan

is with Redwire. The first step is the

market. General market is not looking

super hot. You got the Fed decision

today. You've got inflation up a little

bit. Jobs reports good. Maybe you even

see a rate hike or just a hold, but most

likely no rate cuts. Then you get this

SPY has reached all-time highs and is

recently pulling back. And that comes at

a time where there could also be a

massive catalyst for SpaceTech, which is

the SpaceX IPO coming this Friday. So,

what's going to happen is we're going to

see a lot of volatility and it is an

uncertain time, high uncertainty in the

space- tech market. But to take a look

at the market in general, you know, you

could see massive revenue increases

across the space tech market. There's

been billions and billions of dollars

now trillions of dollars in valuations.

It says that currently the space tech

market is at around 760 billion by 2030.

We could see that to be true, if not a

little bit less than that currently.

Yeah, 450 right now. And that makes

sense. You look at SpaceX and some

people say, well, what's up with the

$1.7 trillion valuation? That's like

three times larger than, you know, the

space tech market as a whole. Well,

SpaceX is primarily driven right now at

least by XAI along with their Google

contracts and their Starlink revenue

that they're already seeing, which is

kind of in the telecommunications world

as well. So, there's some things to look

at and defense markets, if you include

all the defense markets, this is over a

trillion dollar industry currently. But

just to look at the space tech market,

it's growing tremendously. We see a lot

of growth. On average, we're seeing uh

growth of over 20% per year in the space

tech market and obviously in some

tickers over 100% over the last year.

And when you look at the real world

usage, it is pretty strong. We're

looking at Redwire in that they have

their technology in the Artemis space

missions. They have real world revenues

2.6 billion through 2028 in this

contract they're a part of. They've also

signed a $151 billion deal that they are

a part of, not for the entirety, for

space defense. There's a lot of smaller

contracts related to defense along with

the Golden Dome. 15 million here, 20

million there. Um, there are some deals

in the $und00 million ranges. And you

look at how they're launching their

rockets. They're launching the

technology up into space to support NASA

and Aremis 2 missions. and just space

dome in general as well as drug

discovery is another one that they're

developing drugs in zero gravity

environments. When you look at the

growth they've had, it's been

significant in their revenues. So when

you see this big uh now getting into the

news of seeing their uh dilution, it

doesn't look so good. But when you look

at their financials in general, they

have over a billion dollars in equity

and their income is currently over

$und00 million per quarter on average,

right around 100. And that is almost

half that of um Rocket Lab, which means,

you know, they're currently just at $3

billion market cap. and they're on track

to do around 400 to$500 million per year

along with the balance sheet now of

over$ 1.5 billion in assets it could

make a lot of sense for them to

stabilize between two to three and with

the premium of the space tech market

seeing them be around that 3 to6 to 10

billion market cap if they do see some

of those recent contracts actually show

up if you're looking at a projection

right now of $30 a share to $50 a share,

something like that. It's going to be

based on number one SpaceX IPO energy

and it won't probably be based on full

integrity of their financials or it's

going to be based on number two

anticipating that their financials are

going to massively improve with more

revenues than 100 million a quarter as a

result of all of the deals that they've

announced in their press releases. which

some would indicate that we should see

them doing hundreds of millions of

dollars in their income based on some of

the revenue uh numbers from the

contracts that they're signing in their

news. However, not always have we seen

that fully resonate. I remember it was a

2.7 or $2.6 billion deal that actually

was out. I saw them sign it and we

didn't really see their revenue

drastically increase. We did see them

get up there for sure. I mean, their

revenue is up over 57% per year. So,

they're growing for sure in the revenue

standpoint, but the um the big impact

from their contracts wasn't massive.

That's one piece. All right. Is the uh

growth in the market, the news, the

financials. It's not bad that they

raised a little bit of money. You saw a

dilution that basically if you owned 1%,

you now own about 0.85% or something

like that. um because of the new

issuance of shares which is going to

happen that you're going to see money

raise especially in the space tech

market not a red flag although it is

coming at a very bad time because if

there's more volatility from the SpaceX

IPO obviously we're going to see things

kind of sell down even more but again

I've kind of said they should be around

that 12 to $15 range um since around

four five bucks a share and seeing that

$26 range is excellent We should see

targets of 20 to 25 bucks a share. When

the space tech market is booming, things

are going very well and SpaceX IPO goes

well and things start to stabilize. We

should see them float and be around 20

to $25 a share. But in the short term,

let's say the next week, the next month,

even the next 6 months, very, very high

in certainty. But in the longer term

time frames, based on their revenue

growth of 60% year-over-year and seeing

their financials improve and seeing the

real world usage of their technology, we

should see them between 20 to$25 to $30

to $50 even a share over the next

probably 18 months to few years from

now. So that's the way I view it at

least and that's why I have been holding

them long-term and continue to invest in

them and I like to trade them as well.

But the thing is is that you have to

understand that there is some things to

watch where they look kind of all over

the place. If that revenue doesn't show

up from these these uh contracts. So

we're looking at projections into the

next year from Prophecy. You know,

they're seeing $20 a share now or or

more potentially into the next year.

That's kind of where we're seeing them

stabilize or those are the conservative

targets when using prophecy. Now the

accuracy on the 1 hour, 4 hour, 1 day is

over 50% direction accuracy. Gemini has

been performing slightly below, but

Claude for example has been over 60%

when paired with the data that we give

it. And we're seeing prophecy come out

with highly accurate direction uh

projections. And so when it comes to the

uh next day and looking into the next

week, we are seeing bullish momentum.

We're seeing bullish momentum into the

SpaceX IPO. So, we shall see how that

kind of plays out into the next week.

But with those things being said,

imagine, you know, these news rooms come

out, you have these things, but it's

just something doesn't add up. Let's say

they're part of these contracts um that

are the $151 billion deals. They're part

of that $2.6 billion deal, but because

they're one of, you know, 15 contractors

in that deal, or how many? They're one

of 14 prime contractors in that deal.

Maybe it doesn't amount to as much.

Maybe it's not even close to 2.6

billion. Same thing with that $151

billion deal. Maybe as a prime

contractor, they actually only end up,

you know, netting a billion or something

out of that deal. And in those cases,

then you're relying on the other deals

that we've seen in defense with those

average probably 15 20 million deals

here and there that that pop up. And

then you're saying, uhoh, maybe it looks

like this actually is a company that

should be hanging around one to two

billion dollar to maybe $3 billion

market cap and none of the financials

start to really come in from those

deals. That's an option. I don't see

that happening, but there is that kind

of, hey, don't do anything crazy here,

Redwire. You just issued shares. Then

the marketing is kind of okay. You got

some AI images. I click through on their

their news articles. It's not bad. Maybe

it's kind of cool. It doesn't come off

as that cool, but it takes you to a

video on YouTube that's from, you know,

this channel. I'm not sure who it is.

Atomic 6, 165 subscribers. It shows, you

know, um them revving a car and then it

shows an interview, the guy, I get his

his channel, that's what he wants to do.

Trevor Smith is his name. But then you

got the chief technology officer at

Redwire who then they do an interview

which they talk about the AI data

centers in space which was interesting.

But again posting that on the press

releases on the channel on a day like

today just doesn't really look that

good. I don't think they should probably

be posting that. Um I think they should

just stick to facts. But again, that's

just my opinion. Um, the reality is is

they have a large backlog. They should

see a lot more revenue, but with their

current revenues, again, I'm expecting

them to be around that 12 to $15 range.

Everything changes when SpaceX IPO could

take off. A lot of the companies could

rise and we could see that whole

equilibrium start to rise as a result.

or we get a pricing in, we get not a

good Fed meeting or we start to see the

market kind of correct from all-time

highs and SpaceX IPO does have kind of

some large dips around IPO things get

super volatile and that's exactly what

I'm saying here is in the short term it

will be volatile in the longer term time

frames it seems like red wire is on the

right track there's just some shakiness

that you're seeing in the space tech

market ahead of an IPO it's pretty

common thing they talked about in that

video, which I actually did watch, is

the space AI data centers and the

development of that. Very interesting

thought. I feel like if they're thinking

about doing AI data centers, which there

are some companies like Reorbbit, I

think it's called cloud something where

they're working on building these data

centers in space. If it works,

excellent. If we're doing it because

it's just a terrible environmental

impact and we haven't figured out how to

maybe harness the um output of

electricity or we haven't been doing it

as responsibly as we should. I think the

companies that are building data centers

in places that are slightly more

regulated than for example Texas are

probably going about it in ways that use

more renewable energy which in the long

term if we do that very well and we

build new technologies then an ideal

situation would be that we have the

ability to optimize data centers down on

Earth and continue to do so. when you

get these uh instances where they're

saying, you know, the energy is going to

be too great and the um output of uh

heat from some of these data centers or

or a NOS, you know, not um whatever it

may be is is going to be too great. Then

you have to kind of evaluate well maybe

there needs to be some solutions around

the output. Do we need to carbonize? Do

we need to um have more of a optimized

uh filtration system or do we need to

build in more sustainable ways? And

there are a lot of data center companies

that are doing that. the instance of

APLD for example, the way that they're

approaching the data centers, I believe

based on what I've been able to to come

uh to my senses through watching all of

their developments is that they are

building them in a way that's much more

uh environmentally sound than some other

companies that might have less

integrity. Wanting to jump into an area

where there's no regulation is not

necessarily bad if it means the rate of

innovation is good and the rules that

are being given around regulations just

don't make sense. But if there's

regulations, for example, in Texas or

things like that where you have

basically no control over massive

Stargate data centers that are getting

built, you're going to have issues

around the um not just the locals, but

you're going to have issues around the

actual integrity of the company as a

whole. And as we know, it never lasts.

It never goes well. So the companies for

example like apply digital building

North Dakota very cold places seem to be

optimized in that they're doing the

hydroelectric and also lowering the

rates for the locals and that the output

we have to check the output is actually

going to be more optimized than other

data centers and that they're not going

to have negative impacts.

then it's going to be much more

sustainable and you you want to lean

towards that integrity in the companies

that are doing it well. So, if there is

a conversation, again, I bring this up.

I know it's a Redwire video, but if

there is a conversation around, you

know, space data centers and um, you

know, that's one of their focuses over

at Redwire. You see some articles

recently where they've kind of touched

on that a little bit and they have come

out with some articles here and there

around orbital data centers, power

thermal management for scalable

architectures

that if they were to build these massive

data centers up in space just to ensure

you know just re-evaluating looking at

Redwire are they operating out of

integrity based on the earnings that

that have come out based on some of the

um contracts that they've had and how

they're servicing US government, space

tech, the Golden Dome when they've come

out with these articles, it seems to be

reflecting quite well in their

financials. So, what they say is

actually showing up in the balance sheet

is the way that they're operating good.

It seems that they're operating good. I

was looking at Red Wire. Um, the only

negative thing I ever saw on Redwire

because their financials look so good

was actually their glass door. I

actually saw some uh people that were

talking about pros and cons of working

at Redwire. They had a relatively low

rate. People were talking about upper

management not being, you know,

favorable for things like that. They

didn't really like working there. And

that was the only thing that I thought I

thought, hey, you know, it's important

that people like working at the actual

company. It's glass door. How much

weight can you put on it? Some of the

red wire uh ratings are at four stars,

which is actually really good. The ones

I saw were at 3.2. too. So, these are

just some of the factors to assess, but

overall financials looking excellent.

The um the recent surge has been great,

but the pullback is actually much

expected. We got a previous resistance.

So, now getting into technicals at $14 a

share to see them recover and get back

up into 20 would be fairly bullish. Get

them in this move. That's a 35% swing. I

have a long-term position and then I

have a shortterm very very small uh

entry from this morning in our market

live session in our daily live trading

session where we're looking for a larger

recovery. So I am anticipating a

potential bounce here at this $145 level

as prophecy was projecting that today

and so we entered a small position. If

it starts to reflect very very

accurately, we start to see that

recovery, we may add if the opportunity

presents itself. And if you'd ever like

to tune on in to those daily live

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