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Robot Stocks: Tesla, Figure, Apptronik

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Robot Stocks: Tesla, Figure, Apptronik

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437 segments

0:00

I think many of you already know that

0:01

one of the largest markets in the world

0:02

is the coming intelligent robot market

0:04

and that we're actually still very

0:06

early. And the reason I know is that the

0:08

question I keep getting asked more than

0:10

almost any other right now. How do I

0:11

invest in robots? How do I actually

0:13

participate in this? So today I want to

0:14

walk through one answer to how you might

0:16

invest in robotics, especially those

0:18

private humanoid robot companies. A

0:21

company called Robo Strategy went public

0:23

last month. You can find it under the

0:24

ticker bot B in NASDAQ and is built

0:27

specifically to answer that question.

0:29

It's an opportunity I'm pretty excited

0:30

about and I wanted to share it with you.

0:32

I personally think it's important to be

0:33

investing in robotics. By some

0:35

estimates, the robotics industry might

0:37

be up to $218 billion by 2030 and go

0:40

past 370 billion by 2034. And honestly,

0:43

I think even those numbers are likely

0:44

underelling it because the move of the

0:46

labor market over to physical AI is in

0:48

my opinion and Jensen Hong's opinion

0:50

going to be one of the biggest economic

0:52

events ever. I think it's bigger than a

0:54

PC. It's bigger than the internet. So,

0:56

both of those changed how we move

0:58

information around. This one, it changes

1:00

who does the physical labor. That's a

1:02

different order of magnitude. All right.

1:03

First, for full transparency, I want to

1:06

make it clear. This is not a paid

1:07

segment. Nobody paid me to make this

1:09

video. Many of you already know I myself

1:11

started to invest in robotics. I've

1:13

shared a few times now that I'm an

1:14

investor in a bunch of robotics

1:16

companies, Figure, Electronic, and

1:18

others. My thesis is this. I think the

1:20

market is going to be so massive. There

1:22

are lots of opportunities. Yes, there

1:24

will be plenty of losers, but there will

1:26

also be plenty of winners. So, instead

1:28

of trying to pick the one perfect robot

1:30

stock, my strategy is to buy into as

1:32

many of the serious robot companies as I

1:34

can spread across the field. Tesla is

1:37

still my single biggest holding. And

1:39

since it's public, Tesla's basically

1:41

been the only real option for everyday

1:43

investors who want a piece of this. But

1:45

the question I keep getting is the

1:46

harder one. How do you invest in the

1:48

private robotics companies, the figures

1:50

and the electronics, the ones you can't

1:51

just buy on the open market? And that's

1:53

where Robo Strategy comes in. And full

1:55

disclosure, I own a small stake in Robo

1:57

Strategy myself. Just bought it

1:58

recently. Part of that same buy across

2:00

the field approach. So, let's do a real

2:01

deep dive on what it is. Here's what

2:03

we're going to do today. First, we're

2:05

going to cover the actual size of what's

2:06

happening with robotics and labor

2:08

because the number is bigger than most

2:10

people think. Then the access problem,

2:12

why almost none of this is investable

2:14

today. Then what robo strategy actually

2:16

is, who's running it, and the company

2:18

it's modeled after. than the portfolio,

2:20

the due diligence and the track record,

2:22

including a name a lot of you will

2:24

recognize from this channel. And at the

2:27

end, the real risks because there are

2:29

some real ones and what I think this

2:30

means for you. So, let's start with this

2:32

thing. This whole bet sits on labor.

2:34

According to the International Labor

2:36

Organization, labor is about 52% of

2:39

global GDP. Global GDP last year ran

2:42

around 118 trillion. Do the math and you

2:46

get an implied global labor market

2:47

somewhere around $60 trillion. That's

2:50

the pool robotics is aiming at the

2:52

actual cost of human work across the

2:54

planet. And that workforce is shrinking

2:56

in the places that need it most. Reports

2:58

show we have a global shortage of 85

3:00

million skilled workers by 2030. Now,

3:02

the robotics market itself today is

3:05

still small next to that 60 trillion. I

3:07

mentioned the forecast up top up to 218

3:10

billion by 2030, maybe past 370 billion

3:12

by 2034. Andrew Kang, the guy running

3:15

Robo Strategy, he pegs the current

3:17

private robotics market at roughly 100

3:19

to 150 billion. And he thinks it

3:21

eventually becomes a tens of trillions

3:23

kind of industry. Big claim, and I'd

3:24

hold it loosely, but put it next to that

3:26

$60 trillion labor pool and it stops

3:29

sounding crazy. And that's exactly why

3:31

my strategy is to spread the bets across

3:34

the field instead of betting the farm on

3:35

one name. A market this big creates a

3:37

lot of winners. It also creates a lot of

3:39

roadkill. I want exposure to the winners

3:41

without having to be perfect about which

3:43

one it is. So, here's the problem. If

3:45

you actually want to invest in this,

3:47

almost all of the best robotic companies

3:48

are private. Figure is private. Uptronic

3:51

is private. The most exciting, fastest

3:53

growing names in the space are nowhere

3:55

near a public listing. And the reason

3:57

matters, companies stay private way

3:59

longer than they used to. There's so

4:01

much capital floating around in private

4:02

markets now that a great company can

4:04

raise billions without ever touching the

4:06

public market. Look at OpenAI,

4:08

Anthropic, SpaceX. Enormous valuations

4:11

and the general public mostly watched

4:13

from the outside. Figure is the perfect

4:15

example. Back in early 2024, it raised

4:17

money at a $2.6 billion valuation. By

4:20

its series C last fall, it was valued at

4:23

39 billion. That's 15x under 2 years.

4:27

Basically, none of that climb was

4:28

available to a normal public investor.

4:31

So, what are your options today if you

4:32

want robotics on the public market?

4:33

Honestly, they're pretty thin. You can

4:35

buy big diversified tech companies that

4:37

happen to have a robotics arm where

4:39

robotics is a rounding error on the

4:41

income statement. Or you can buy Tesla.

4:42

Look, I love Tesla. It's my biggest

4:44

position. Optimus might end up being the

4:46

most valuable thing the company ever

4:48

builds. But Tesla is a oneplus trillion

4:51

dollar company. Optimus is one piece of

4:53

a very big pie. If you want concentrated

4:55

pure exposure to the robot buildup, even

4:57

Tesla only gets you part of the way

4:59

there. And that's the gap. The value is

5:01

getting created in private companies and

5:03

the public investor has almost no clean

5:05

way in. So that brings us to Robo

5:08

Strategy. The legal name is Robo

5:09

Strategy Incorporated. It trades on the

5:12

NASDAQ under the ticker bot B. It's a

5:14

great ticker by the way. It listed on

5:16

May 11th, so it's about a month old as

5:18

I'm recording this. Structurally, it's a

5:20

closed end fund. So what does that mean

5:22

in plain English? is a publicly traded

5:24

company whose entire job is to own a

5:27

portfolio of robotics and physical AI

5:29

businesses, mostly private ones, and

5:31

they let you buy a slice of that

5:32

portfolio on the open market. You buy

5:34

bot, you own a piece of the basket. The

5:36

man running it is Andrew Kang. He

5:38

founded a firm called Mechanism Capital,

5:41

which made his name in crypto and

5:42

frontier tech. He's now pivoted hard

5:45

into robotics, and Robo Strategy is the

5:47

first time he's ever taken outside

5:49

capital into an actively managed fund.

5:51

The model they're copying is the part

5:53

that makes this very interesting.

5:54

They're openly calling themselves, and

5:56

these are their words, the micro

5:57

strategy of robotics. You know the micro

5:59

strategy story. So, Michael Sailor

6:01

turned a software company into a public

6:03

vehicle that raises money into capital

6:04

markets and pours it into Bitcoin. The

6:07

stock became a way for public investors

6:09

to get leverage Bitcoin exposure. Robo

6:11

Strategy is running the same playbook,

6:12

except instead of Bitcoin, the asset is

6:15

equity in private robotics companies.

6:18

Kang's pitch is basically this. Bitcoin

6:20

got the micro strategy treatment.

6:21

Robotics is a bigger industry than

6:23

Bitcoin and far harder for a regular

6:25

person to access. So robotics needs its

6:28

own version. That's the whole thesis in

6:30

one line. Okay. So what does the fund

6:32

actually own and why should you believe

6:33

these guys can pick the winners? The

6:35

portfolio is a who's who of private

6:37

robotics. They've got Figure AI,

6:39

Uptronic, plus Dino Robotics, Standard

6:43

Bots, Dexmate, Cocoa Robotics, Path

6:46

Robotics, and a few others spread across

6:48

humanoids, robotic arms, mobile

6:50

manipulation, and the compute behind

6:52

them. The track record is what Kang

6:54

leans on hardest, and it's a real one.

6:55

So, about 2 years ago, when most VCs he

6:57

talked to were telling him to stay away

6:59

from robotics, he put roughly $19

7:01

million into Figure AI. That was his

7:03

first robotics bet. Figure was a

7:05

fraction of today's size back then. It's

7:07

now a $ 39 billion company. He got into

7:10

Uptronic early, too, before its

7:12

valuation tripled to over $5 billion

7:14

this year. And he's not just an early

7:16

check anymore. By his own account, Robo

7:18

Strategy is now leading rounds and

7:20

beating top tier venture firms for

7:22

allocations. In robotics right now,

7:25

allocation is everything. The best

7:27

rounds are oversubscribed and getting in

7:29

is genuinely hard. If a firm is winning

7:31

those fights, that's a real signal it

7:33

has access. Now, axis gets you into the

7:36

room. Picking right is a different

7:38

skill, and this is the part that made me

7:40

pay closer attention. The person running

7:42

their investment due diligence is

7:44

someone a lot of you already know from

7:46

this channel. My friend Dr. Scott

7:48

Walter. So, if you watch my robot shows,

7:50

you've seen Scott. We've done hundreds

7:52

of shows together. He's one of the most

7:54

respected voices in humanoid robotics,

7:56

40 years in the field, and he just left

7:58

the field to go work for Robo Strategy.

8:01

His title there is robotics research

8:03

diligence director. They shortened it to

8:05

R2-D2, which for robotics funny is

8:08

pretty funny, pretty perfect, too. In

8:10

his own words, he spent 40 years on the

8:12

playing field, and now he can do more

8:14

good in the front office, helping decide

8:16

which companies actually get the

8:17

capital. That matters to me when you're

8:19

betting on a fund's ability to pick

8:21

winners in a field full of hype. Having

8:23

a genuine engineer with decades of

8:25

hands-on experience kicking the tires in

8:27

every deal is exactly what you want. He

8:30

knows which demos are real and which

8:32

ones are smoke. That's a kind of edge

8:34

that doesn't show up in a pitch deck.

8:35

And the underlying companies are clearly

8:37

moving. Figure just signed a commercial

8:38

deal with Catalyst Brands. That's the

8:40

parent of J. C. Penney, Aropastel, and

8:42

Brooks Brothers. Figure starting to

8:45

deploy human or robots at their

8:46

operations in Reno, Nevada. That's a

8:48

portfolio company landing real paying

8:50

commercial work. A signed contract, not

8:52

a demo reel. And on production figures

8:55

bot Qline is now building a robot

8:57

roughly every 90 minutes. Electronics

9:00

got Google, Mercedes, and others writing

9:02

checks. These companies are scaling for

9:04

real. Now the mechanics because this is

9:06

where the micro strategy comparison

9:08

earns its keep and where the risk lives

9:10

too. A close-end fund like this has one

9:12

big structural advantage. The capital's

9:14

permanent. No fun life, no clock forcing

9:17

them to sell in seven or 10 years like a

9:18

normal VC fund. Kang can hold a position

9:21

as long as he wants, which for an

9:22

industry this early actually matters a

9:24

lot. And right after listing, they lined

9:26

up the fuel. Robo Strategy signed a

9:28

committed equity facility of up to $2

9:30

billion with a firm called Roth

9:32

Principal Investments. That's a standing

9:34

ability to issue new shares and raise up

9:36

to $2 billion over time, which they then

9:39

redeploy into more private robotics

9:42

deals. Here's the engine in plain

9:43

English. So, every share bought is

9:45

backed by a basket of robot companies.

9:48

Add up what that basket is worth, divide

9:50

by the number of shares, and you get the

9:51

value behind one share. On Wall Street,

9:54

they call that the net asset value or

9:56

NAV. Just think of it as the real value

9:58

packed into each share. Now, here's the

9:59

trick. Sometimes the stock trades for

10:02

more than that real value. People are so

10:04

excited about robots that they'll pay,

10:06

say, $150 for a share that only holds a

10:09

dollar of robot companies inside it.

10:11

That extra 50 cents is called the

10:12

premium. So, watch what the fund can do

10:14

with that. They sell new shares at

10:16

$1.50, take in the cash, and then go buy

10:19

a $150 worth of robot companies. They

10:22

collected a $150 but only had to back it

10:24

with a dollar value before. That gap

10:26

quietly makes every existing share worth

10:28

a little more. They raise high. They buy

10:31

assets and the value behind your share

10:33

ticks up. Then they do it again. That's

10:35

the whole loop. And it's exactly how

10:36

Micro Strategy grew its Bitcoin per

10:39

share. When it works, it's a flywheel.

10:41

The stock trades at a premium. They sell

10:43

shares into that premium. The value

10:45

behind each share climbs. That higher

10:47

value helps keep the premium going round

10:49

and round. It spins. So that one word

10:51

premium is the entire ball game. The

10:53

obvious question is what happens when

10:55

the premium goes away. Let's get into

10:56

that. Now let's be real about the risk

10:58

because there are some whole flywheel

11:00

runs on that premium. Look at Micro

11:02

Strategy. At its peak in late 2024, it

11:04

traded at almost four times the value of

11:07

its Bitcoin. By this year, that premium

11:09

had cooled to around 1.2 times. And when

11:11

the premium drifts down towards one,

11:12

issuing new shares stops helping you and

11:14

starts diluting you. Closeand fund can

11:16

also trade at a discount for long

11:18

stretches. Nothing guarantees bot sits

11:20

at a premium. If the mood turns, you can

11:22

own a dollar of robots and the market

11:24

only pays you 80 cents for it. Second,

11:26

these holdings are mostly private, which

11:27

makes them hard to value and hard to

11:29

sell. The fund's net asset value leans

11:31

on estimated marks for private

11:33

companies, not live market prices. If a

11:36

hot private round reprices lower, that

11:38

value moves down with it. And third,

11:40

this is simply early days. The fund is

11:42

about a month old. Andrew Kang has real

11:44

conviction and a genuinely good early

11:45

call-in figure. and they brought in

11:47

serious people like Scott Walter to vet

11:49

the deals, but it's still a young

11:50

non-diversified fund in one of the most

11:52

speculative corners of tech. If

11:54

humanoids take longer than hype says,

11:55

they might. This gets hit hard. So, both

11:58

things are true at once. The idea is

11:59

genuinely exciting and the risk are

12:01

genuinely real. I just want you walking

12:03

in with both eyes open. So, how do I

12:05

actually think about this as an

12:06

investor? So, for me, it comes down to

12:08

the role it plays in a portfolio. Robbo

12:10

strategy is a high-risisk, high

12:12

conviction holding. Nobody should

12:13

mistake it for a sleep well at night

12:15

position. It's a bet on a specific idea

12:17

that robotics follows the same private

12:20

market explosion AI just went through.

12:22

That a public vehicle can capture some

12:24

of that upside for you. If you believe

12:26

that bot is one of the only ways to

12:28

express it on the public market without

12:30

being an accredited investor writing

12:32

million-doll checks into private rounds.

12:34

That's the actual product here. Access

12:35

to something that's been locked behind

12:37

venture capital your whole life. The way

12:39

it framed the scenarios is simple. In

12:41

the bull case, robotic scales the way AI

12:43

did. The private marks keep climbing,

12:46

the premium holds, and the flywheel does

12:48

its thing. In the bare case, the

12:49

timeline slips, the premium collapses,

12:51

the fund trades at a discount, and you

12:53

found out the hard way what

12:54

concentration risk feels like. Both are

12:56

fully on the table. That's how it fits

12:58

my own approach. I told you my strategy

13:00

is to spread bets across as many serious

13:02

robot companies as I can because I'd

13:04

rather own a slice of the whole field

13:06

than gamble on one name. Bot is one

13:08

piece of that for me. So, here's what

13:10

I'd actually do with this. The first

13:11

thing is go read the source material

13:13

yourself before you touch anything. Robo

13:16

Strategy's own posts and their site lay

13:18

out the thesis and their holdings. Read

13:20

Andrew Kang's launch thread in his own

13:22

words. I'll link all of that below. Then

13:24

if you do look up bot, watch the premium

13:26

or discount to nav like a hawk. That

13:28

single number tells you whether the

13:29

machine is working for you or against

13:31

you. Buying a vehicle like this at a fat

13:33

premium is how people get hurt. There's

13:35

also a simple mental move that helps

13:37

separate the companies from the fun.

13:38

Figure electronic. These are real

13:40

businesses making real progress and the

13:42

Catalyst brand's deal is the proof. You

13:44

can believe in the robots and still be

13:46

careful with the rapper you buy them

13:47

through. After that, size it like the

13:50

speculative bet it is. Decide your

13:52

number before you buy, not after. And

13:54

the last one, keep watching Tesla and

13:56

Optimus as your baseline. If you want to

13:58

know how fast this whole trend is

13:59

moving, production ramps at Tesla,

14:01

Viger, and Electronic are your best live

14:03

signal. Okay, so let's zoom out for a

14:05

second. For years, the most exciting

14:07

part of technology has happened in

14:09

private behind a velvet rope and the

14:11

public investor got to buy in only after

14:13

the big gains were already gone. Robo

14:15

Strategy is a bet that robotics is too

14:17

big to get behind that rope. Check out

14:19

the sticker bought on NASDAQ. Whether

14:22

this exact fund turns out to be the

14:23

winner, I don't know yet. It's a month

14:25

old. But the gap it's trying to fill is

14:27

real and somebody's going to fill it.

14:29

Hopefully you enjoyed the show and found

14:30

it valuable. I'll see you in the next

14:32

one.

Interactive Summary

This video explores investment opportunities in the burgeoning robotics industry, specifically focusing on how everyday investors can gain exposure to private humanoid robot companies. The speaker introduces 'Robo Strategy' (ticker: BOTB), a closed-end fund designed to provide public market access to a portfolio of private robotics firms. The presentation covers the massive potential of the robotics market relative to the global labor economy, the challenges of accessing private companies, the mechanics of the fund's 'flywheel' strategy, and the significant risks involved, including premium volatility and concentration risks.

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