HomeVideos

The Only SpaceX IPO Video Investors Need to Watch

Now Playing

The Only SpaceX IPO Video Investors Need to Watch

Transcript

977 segments

0:00

Three weeks ago on this channel,

0:02

I gave you four small space stocks

0:04

before anyone really was paying

0:06

attention to them, Redwire.

0:09

Today, that stock's up 163%

0:12

since I started talking about it.

0:14

Voyager Technologies, ticker symbol

0:16

VOYG,

0:17

86% up in 3 weeks. Firefly Aerospace was

0:22

up 69% in just a couple of weeks. And

0:26

they're not even close to done. Now,

0:28

everybody out there is talking about the

0:30

same number. SpaceX is about to go

0:33

public at a 1.75

0:37

trillion valuation or something in that

0:38

ballpark. That's the headline, right?

0:40

That's the noise. And I want to show you

0:42

a very different number. A number almost

0:45

nobody has read out loud because it's on

0:48

page 11

0:50

of the actual filing SpaceX sent to the

0:53

US government. And they tell the SEC, in

0:56

their own words, they're going after a

0:58

market worth 28.5

1:02

trillion dollars. 28.5 trillion. And

1:06

Space literally calls it, and I quote,

1:08

"The largest actionable total

1:11

addressable market in human history."

1:14

It is bigger than the entire economy of

1:17

the United States. The question that

1:19

should literally keep you up at night,

1:21

the early investors in SpaceX, they've

1:24

been waiting 20 years for this exit.

1:27

If you put a million dollars into early

1:30

SpaceX today, you're worth 100 million.

1:33

You put in 10 million, like a lot of

1:35

people would have done,

1:36

you're worth a billion dollars.

1:38

So, when the lockup period expires and

1:41

these people are finally allowed to sell

1:43

after 20 years,

1:46

are they going to dump the stock and

1:48

tank

1:49

your

1:51

retirement or

1:53

and this is important, is there a

1:54

structural reason they don't sell? A

1:56

reason almost nobody's explaining that

1:58

turns SpaceX into the first $10 trillion

2:01

company history. I'm Felix. This is

2:04

Winston. He used to be an ex-investment

2:06

banker. I'm in the economist around

2:08

here.

2:08

And we're going to walk you through

2:10

three things. One, the single structural

2:12

reason SpaceX cannot crash the way Uber

2:15

and Rivian did. And this is the part

2:18

that nobody's figured out yet. And then

2:20

two,

2:21

well, except of course for Wall Street.

2:23

And then two, why SpaceX could become

2:25

the first $10 trillion company. Bigger

2:29

than Apple, bigger than Nvidia, and

2:31

bigger than Microsoft together.

2:33

And this is rather exciting, isn't it,

2:35

Winston? And three, and I want you to

2:38

stick around for this one because I'm

2:40

going to give you the exact stocks that

2:41

I'm looking at right now to ride this

2:44

wave. Including small caps that have

2:47

already doubled,

2:49

could go even further. The chip makers

2:51

behind the AI side of SpaceX, which is

2:54

where all the value is. And one boring

2:57

index trade that almost certainly wins

3:00

regardless of what the IPO does on day

3:02

one. Now, Winston's got a warning for

3:04

you because this entire video is going

3:05

to be rather information dense. We're

3:07

going to have cover a lot of stuff here.

3:09

Filings, squeeze mechanics, the supply

3:12

chain, the risks, how to play it. So, to

3:14

make sure all of this really lands for

3:16

you, Winston has put together a free

3:19

bonus research report. Full written

3:21

research report breakdown of everything

3:23

that we're covering here today. Plus

3:26

more. Because I won't have time to cover

3:28

everything in this video. And you can

3:29

grab it completely for free, no

3:31

questions asked, at felixfriends.org/x.

3:34

As in X.

3:35

X. No credit card needed. It's links in

3:37

the description and the comments. Click

3:39

on that. Now, let's get into why the

3:42

early investors of SpaceX might not

3:45

crash the stock the way most people

3:48

think. Now, there are a lot of IPOs out

3:50

there that are disaster. And they all

3:52

have one thing in common. Take Uber. So,

3:55

Uber went public at about $45

3:59

if I remember correctly. Six months

4:00

later, when the insiders were finally

4:03

allowed to sell because there's

4:04

something called a lockup period. Once

4:06

you IPO, the insiders can't sell for a

4:09

period of time. What happened after six

4:11

months? Stock

4:13

collapsed, right? Or you look at Rivian.

4:16

Remember that one? Went public at what,

4:18

$78 I think. Within 18 months, it was

4:22

down 90%.

4:25

90%.

4:27

Or Snapchat, or Facebook on day one.

4:30

Same story over and over and over.

4:34

So, why is it everyone assuming SpaceX

4:36

is going to be any different? Well,

4:39

three

4:40

very, very important reasons. Reason

4:43

one,

4:44

tax. Tax would kill these guys. Because

4:46

they bought their shares 20 years ago

4:49

for almost nothing. And today those

4:51

shares are worth $100 million.

4:54

So, if you sell, the US government takes

4:56

a giant bite out of that. Federal

4:58

capital gains tax is 20%. Add state tax,

5:01

say in California, now 13% on top. So,

5:04

you are

5:05

selling $100 million

5:07

and it triggers a tax bill of about $33

5:11

million

5:13

out of your pocket to the IRS. And

5:15

honestly, people with that kind of

5:17

money, they have $100 million,

5:19

they don't volunteer to write a $33

5:21

million check unless they absolutely

5:23

have to.

5:24

So, there's another way that they do it.

5:25

They can borrow against the shares.

5:27

Reason two is that this is the part that

5:29

nobody really explains. They borrow

5:31

exactly against their shares. So, this

5:34

is called

5:36

an SBLOC,

5:38

securities-backed

5:40

line of credit. Sounds complicated, but

5:42

it's actually not. How How does this

5:44

work? So, once SpaceX is publicly

5:46

traded, an insider will walk into Morgan

5:49

Stanley or Goldman Sachs and say, "Hey,

5:52

I have a hundred million dollars of

5:53

SpaceX stock stock. Lend me some money."

5:57

So, they go in there and they say, "I

5:58

have a hundred million bucks SpaceX."

6:01

And the bank, this is the bank,

6:04

will say, "No worries. We're going to

6:06

give you 15 million cash.

6:08

And we're going to charge you maybe 4%

6:11

interest." So, the insider walks out

6:13

with 15 million dollars in cash.

6:16

Tax bill is zero. Because borrowing

6:19

money is not a sale.

6:22

And they might be able to reduce their

6:24

other taxes because now they've got a 4%

6:27

interest to pay, which might be tax

6:29

deductible. So, the insider gets the

6:31

tax. And if you think this sounds crazy,

6:34

well, Elon Musk has been doing this with

6:36

Tesla stock for over 15 years. Bezos

6:38

does it. All the billionaires do it.

6:40

They don't sell their stock. They borrow

6:42

against their stock. That's how the

6:44

richest people on Earth actually live.

6:46

They owe billions of dollars to the

6:48

banks. Everyone's happy. Nobody pays any

6:51

tax. And it is the reason SpaceX is not

6:54

going to behave like Uber after the

6:56

lockup. The third reason

6:59

is the Nasdaq has just rewritten the

7:02

rule. And the rule change forces

7:04

hundreds of billions of dollars to buy

7:07

SpaceX whether they want to or not.

7:09

The Nasdaq has something called the

7:12

Nasdaq 100. It's the index of the

7:16

hundred biggest companies on the

7:17

exchange. And there are trillions of

7:20

dollars of index funds and 401k

7:23

retirement money that automatically buy

7:26

every stock in the Nasdaq 100. So, once

7:31

SpaceX is part of the Nasdaq 100, which

7:34

will happen on day one, basically,

7:36

on autopilot, these guys have to buy.

7:39

And Nasdaq made a change their rules

7:42

this May.

7:44

A quiet rule change. Brand new companies

7:47

that used to wait 3 months to be added

7:49

to the index can now be added in just 15

7:52

days after their IPO.

7:54

They also removed the rule that said the

7:56

stock had to have a certain amount of

7:58

public float and

8:00

the real bizarre rule change. It's

8:03

almost like it's written for SpaceX cuz

8:04

the float is very small. What's the

8:06

float? Say say they have a thousand

8:09

share or a hundred shares in total of

8:12

SpaceX just to keep it simple, right?

8:14

Only 20 of them will be listed as in

8:17

like actually traded. The other 80 will

8:20

still be owned by investors who don't

8:22

want to sell and you're going to borrow

8:23

against them. And usually that would

8:25

have penalized the stock. But Nasdaq has

8:29

now done something really bizarre.

8:31

If your float is under 20% they're going

8:34

to give you a three times boost in the

8:38

index waiting. So what does it mean? I

8:40

mean in you know human language. It

8:42

means that within 2 weeks of SpaceX

8:44

going public every Nasdaq index fund,

8:47

yes your QQQ fund on earth is required

8:51

to start buying SpaceX. They have no

8:53

choice. The computer makes them. The

8:56

rules make them.

8:58

Have you seen that?

8:59

SpaceX is releasing only a small slice

9:02

of the shares to the public. Most of the

9:04

company stays locked up with Musk and

9:06

insiders. So there is a very very small

9:09

amount of SpaceX stock actually

9:10

available.

9:12

And on the buyer side you have hundreds

9:14

of billions of dollars of automatic

9:15

index buying that is forced to start

9:17

within 15 days.

9:19

Tiny supply.

9:21

Permanent forced demand. The insiders

9:23

cannot sell sell because of the tax bill

9:25

would eat them alive and they don't need

9:27

to sell because they can borrow against

9:29

the shares almost for free.

9:31

So this is a structural

9:34

squeeze I'd call it.

9:36

So now you kind of get it, right? The

9:38

insiders can't sell, the tax bill would

9:40

eat them alive. They don't need to sell

9:41

sell because they can borrow against

9:43

their shares for very little. And the

9:45

Nasdaq rewrote the rules so that

9:47

hundreds of billions of dollars in

9:49

passive money are forced to buy spaces.

9:51

It's unlike anything we've ever seen.

9:53

And that's the goodness. Now, here's the

9:54

problem.

9:55

You now understand why SpaceX probably

9:57

won't crash the way Uber and Rivian did.

9:59

You understand the structure, but

10:01

understanding the structure and actually

10:02

making money from it are two very

10:04

different things. Because do you know

10:07

when to get in? Do you know which stocks

10:10

in the say SpaceX supply chain move

10:13

first weeks before the IPO even prices?

10:17

Do you know the signal that tells you

10:19

the passive buying wave is about to hit

10:22

and once it's finished hitting?

10:24

Do you know which infrastructure plays

10:26

the big institutions have already been

10:27

loading up on for 6 months while you

10:29

were watching YouTube videos? They do.

10:32

They know the timeline. They know the

10:34

sequencing. They've been in this trade

10:36

since before you even knew there was

10:39

going to be an IPO.

10:41

And by the time CNBC runs a segment on

10:43

it and you know, your friends start

10:45

talking about it over lunch,

10:47

you're not early. You are what Wall

10:49

Street calls exit liquidity.

10:51

And that's exactly And what happens is

10:54

that retail investors again and again

10:55

and again lose money on these

10:58

opportunities that get talked about

10:59

everywhere.

11:00

They chase the popular thing and they

11:02

lose money because they don't understand

11:03

the full structure. So, if you've done

11:05

that before, maybe you've bought an IPO

11:07

before or just bought something that was

11:10

running hot and you still lost money on

11:12

it, put it in the chat. Put hot in the

11:15

chat. Because that's exactly why I'm

11:18

going to run something for you that I've

11:20

never done before, I will never do

11:22

again. A free live session this

11:24

Saturday.

11:25

And I call it the greatest stock market

11:28

opportunity

11:29

before the SpaceX IPO.

11:32

And in that live session, I'm going to

11:34

walk you through three

11:36

the exact pre-IPO playbook that the big

11:39

firms are using.

11:40

Which stocks move first, which stocks

11:42

move last, and how you position before

11:45

the herd even shows up.

11:48

And that's the piece you're missing.

11:49

It's going to be live, it's going to be

11:50

free, there'll be no replay, don't ask

11:52

for it. And whether you're in the US,

11:54

whether you're in Europe, the session is

11:55

for you. I'm going to run it at a time

11:57

you can can all join. And I will give

11:59

you Wall Street's greatest playbook. So,

12:01

get your free ticket at

12:03

greatestplaybook.com.

12:04

The link is in the description and

12:06

pinned to the comment, you can click on

12:07

it. And let me know if you're going to

12:08

show up for yourself and get Wall

12:10

Street's greatest playbook. Write

12:12

playbook in the comments and I'll know

12:13

you're going to be there.

12:15

But let's actually get into why SpaceX

12:18

is being valued at what's being valued

12:19

at because the numbers here are

12:21

genuinely insane. And maybe you're

12:24

thinking, "Uh Felix, why aren't you just

12:26

telling me everything here?" Well, this

12:27

video would become really, really long

12:29

and YouTube doesn't like really, really

12:31

long videos. Uh plus, if we do it live,

12:33

you can actually ask me questions and

12:34

it'll be a lot more useful. So, join me

12:36

on Saturday.

12:38

But I want to go back to that

12:40

28

12:42

trillion

12:44

dollar number.

12:45

Because most people will hear that and

12:46

assume it's, you know, sort of

12:48

marketing, whatever. But SpaceX broke

12:51

that number down for the SEC line by

12:53

line in the actual filing. And here's

12:54

what it says.

12:55

They say 370

12:58

billion dollars from space itself.

13:01

That's the launchers, the satellites,

13:03

the rocket business, the stuff that

13:05

people consider to be the SpaceX

13:07

business. 1.6 trillion from

13:10

connectivity. That's Starlink. That's

13:13

internet from space. And they split this

13:16

into 800 billion for Starlink broadband,

13:19

like the dish you put on your roof and

13:21

that sort of thing, and then 745 billion

13:24

from Starlink mobile.

13:25

Which is basically going to replace a

13:28

removable phone network. But, that's not

13:30

even the big stuff. So, not only will

13:32

there be the telecoms company for every

13:34

country in the world, the Wi-Fi for

13:36

every country in the world country in

13:37

the world, the mobile phone network for

13:39

every country in the world, there is a

13:41

bigger pie here.

13:42

And it is AI.

13:44

So, let me break that AI number down for

13:46

you because it's what makes everything

13:49

kind of make sense. 26 trillion is a

13:51

ludicrous number. So, let's understand

13:53

what that means.

13:54

So, we have 2.4 trillion for basically

13:57

hardware, so chips and data centers and

14:01

in all that stuff that

14:03

AI needs to run. Then up consumer AI

14:05

subscriptions is only about 60 billion

14:07

dollars, so we're going to skip over

14:09

that, you know, Grok, that kind of

14:10

thing.

14:11

600 billion. These numbers are so

14:13

ludicrously large, right? 600 billion in

14:16

advertising, yeah. And you might think

14:18

advertising is a weird business. Well,

14:20

Google's business is entirely

14:22

advertising. Meta's business is entirely

14:24

advertising because SpaceX now owns X,

14:27

the platform, you know, Twitter. And

14:29

then we've got the big deal. 22 trillion

14:33

in basically

14:35

corporate applications.

14:37

So, business-to-business.

14:39

And that's the AI tools sold to every

14:41

business on earth. Now, the bears are

14:44

going to say SpaceX is never going to

14:45

capture all of that. And the bears are

14:47

right. SpaceX will not capture 27

14:51

trillion dollars of B2B business.

14:54

But, they don't need to.

14:56

Watch this math. If they just get 10% of

15:00

that addressable market, that's about

15:03

3 trillion dollars in annual revenue.

15:05

We're talking about like a 10-year time

15:06

horizon here, right? Now,

15:09

the entire S&P 500, so the entire S&P

15:13

500 today does about 18 trillion

15:17

in revenue. So, 10% of the addressable

15:21

market is about 1/6 of the entire S&P

15:26

500, one company. And that's why the

15:28

valuation goes

15:30

from 2 trillion to 10 trillion. You

15:33

don't need everything to go right, you

15:36

just need them to capture a slice. A

15:38

slice is enough. Now, talking of slices,

15:41

there are some small cap stocks that I'm

15:44

looking at to ride this wave. I'm going

15:45

to walk you through that in a second, so

15:47

stick with me.

15:48

But it isn't just AI that Wall Street is

15:51

underpricing in my humble opinion, it is

15:53

also SpaceX. SpaceX is the fastest

15:56

scaling product in telecom history.

16:00

2023 they had 2 million users. Right now

16:02

they got 10 million. So they just went

16:04

in

16:05

three years less than three years, two

16:07

and a half years from 2 million to 10

16:09

million users. Five times jump. And the

16:12

growth is actually accelerating, it

16:14

isn't slowing down. This is

16:17

the biggest part of

16:19

SpaceX's business right now. 61% of

16:22

revenue. Rockets is only a tiny part. I

16:24

love using Starlink. It's amazing when

16:26

you travel. Like you can sit anywhere

16:27

you like and you can use Starlink. You

16:29

can be on a yacht, you can be in the

16:32

woods, you can be anywhere you want and

16:33

you got perfect Wi-Fi. And the

16:36

traditional telecom companies, you know,

16:38

whether it's Verizon or AT&T, Vodafone

16:40

or whatever, they had to dig billions of

16:43

dollars of fiber optic cables into the

16:45

ground, put up all these mobile phone

16:48

masts, cost them a fortune. SpaceX just

16:50

puts up satellites. And then you get

16:53

reception everywhere in the world. So

16:56

it's a structural cost advantage. AT&T

17:00

can't do it.

17:01

Vodafone can't do it. And it just means

17:03

SpaceX makes the same product for a

17:06

fraction of what the old companies could

17:08

make it for.

17:09

So they can undercut

17:11

and steal

17:12

all of the telecoms companies'

17:14

customers. So if I was going to short

17:16

something today, it'd be telecoms

17:17

companies, and I'm not a registered

17:18

financial advisor. I'm telling you what

17:20

to buy. I'm just saying, right? So,

17:21

mobile companies here

17:24

become pointless. But, the real shift

17:27

comes in this. Right now, you need a

17:28

Starlink dish to get the service. But,

17:30

Starlink mobile, which is already being

17:33

tested with T-Mobile,

17:35

works directly with the phone in your

17:38

pocket. You don't need a dish. You don't

17:40

need a router. Your iPhone becomes a

17:43

Starlink terminal.

17:45

So,

17:46

when that goes

17:48

mainstream,

17:49

SpaceX is no longer competing with

17:52

Verizon, AT&T.

17:54

It's just fully replacing them.

17:56

Globally, in every country. Okay, but

17:59

let's talk about something that made me

18:00

really sit up straight when I when I was

18:02

reading the the filing. It's Elon Musk's

18:06

compensation package. There are two

18:08

awards here.

18:10

One is the SpaceX CEO award, and the

18:12

other is something called the AIC award.

18:15

It's got very specific conditions

18:17

attached to it. SpaceX has to build, I'm

18:20

quoting this from the filing,

18:21

non-earth-based

18:23

data centers capable of delivering 100

18:26

terawatts of compute per year. So, it's

18:29

data centers in space, right? And you

18:31

might laugh at that. I get that. Sounds

18:32

like science fiction. But, this is an

18:34

illegal document with the US government,

18:36

right?

18:38

You can't lie in this document. It's a

18:39

becomes a federal crime. And there's a

18:41

reason it makes sense. Data centers is

18:44

giant warehouses full of computer chips

18:45

that run on things like, you know,

18:47

ChatGPT. They have two big problems. The

18:49

first problem they have

18:51

is they need an insane amount of power

18:54

that we can't really generate.

18:56

And the second problem is that they

18:58

generate an insane amount of heat. And

19:01

on Earth, you have to pay a lot of money

19:04

to cool them. You need water. You need

19:07

air that can handle

19:10

can handle

19:11

In space, you have a problem. Space is

19:14

naturally minus

19:17

270°

19:20

Celsius, that is.

19:22

So cold it doesn't really matter whether

19:23

it's the Celsius or Fahrenheit, right?

19:25

It's just cold. But it's free cooling.

19:27

And the sun beams down energy 24 hours a

19:31

day with no clouds in the way. So you

19:33

get free electricity.

19:35

The biggest cost in running data centers

19:38

solved. And SpaceX is the only company

19:41

on Earth that has the rockets to

19:42

actually get giant equipment up there

19:45

cheaply. Nobody else is even close. So

19:47

SpaceX can actually build data centers

19:50

in space that are structurally cheaper

19:52

than anything on Earth.

19:54

And that means every AI company in the

19:56

world becomes a customer. Yeah. Open AI,

19:59

Anthropic, everybody. And no one's

20:01

pricing this in. Wall Street is still

20:02

pricing SpaceX as a rocket company.

20:05

They're not pricing in the AI cloud

20:07

play. They're not pricing in the cooling

20:08

mode. They're not pricing in the energy

20:10

mode. The market hasn't really woken up

20:12

to this yet because we are always

20:14

dubious of innovation. So you're still

20:17

with me up with this point? I see the

20:19

watch time data, so I know you're still

20:20

here.

20:21

You're the kind of viewer who actually

20:23

makes money opportunities like this,

20:25

right? The picks are coming straight up,

20:27

so stick around. But just understand for

20:30

a moment how much Elon Musk personally

20:32

believes in this business because the

20:34

filing tells us exactly how much. He

20:37

basically gets 300 million shares when

20:39

he hit a 6 and 1/2 trillion market cap.

20:43

And then 15 milestones along the way.

20:47

And

20:48

one of those milestones is a human

20:51

colony on Mars with at least 1 million

20:53

inhabitants. This is literally in the

20:55

SEC filing, right? So look, it's a

20:56

contract. You can't make this up. And if

20:59

he delivers all of this, all of these

21:01

insanely ambitious targets, he might get

21:03

paid $700 billion plus.

21:07

This is the most incentivized CEO on the

21:10

planet. And the part that matters for

21:13

you and me is not the headline, but the

21:15

structure.

21:17

Elon Musk signed a legal document that

21:19

says he doesn't get the bulk of his

21:22

payday unless SpaceX hits $7.5 trillion

21:27

in market cap. $7.5 trillion. We expect

21:31

SpaceX to list at about $1.75

21:34

trillion. So, Elon Musk appears to

21:37

believe that we're going to get a 5x

21:40

here from the IPO price. That's what he

21:43

needs to unlock his money.

21:44

So, he doesn't think $2 trillion is the

21:46

ceiling. He thinks $2 trillion is

21:49

the floor, the starting point. Now, am I

21:52

slightly concerned about insider

21:54

selling, despite of what I just said?

21:56

Yes. Because these guys will do

21:58

something that is called hedging. And

22:01

I'm not going to walk you through it

22:02

because it'll bore the pants off you.

22:04

But it'll have a slightly depressing

22:06

effect on the stock price. And they're

22:08

going to do that

22:10

up to the point where

22:12

well, probably beyond the point where

22:14

they can start to sell. Because insiders

22:16

are locked up

22:18

for 180 days, most of them,

22:22

after the IPO. It means they can't sell

22:24

for 6 months. But Elon Musk and certain

22:27

large investors are locked up for 366

22:32

days. So, a full year plus a day for

22:34

some strange reason. So, Musk can't

22:36

sell. So, literally the guy who controls

22:39

85% of the voting power of SpaceX has

22:41

chosen

22:43

voluntarily to lock himself up for a

22:45

full year.

22:46

No escape hatches, right?

22:48

And that's someone who's not selling.

22:49

That's someone who is

22:51

holding,

22:52

building. So, you've got the playbook

22:55

now. You've seen the squeeze potential

22:57

from the Nasdaq rules. You've seen the

22:58

total addressable market. You've seen

23:00

how big a deal Starlink could be. You've

23:02

seen the space data centers. You've seen

23:05

Elon's own pay package betting on a $10

23:07

trillion outcome. But look, if you've

23:10

ever been burned on an IPO before

23:12

or any kind of highly hyped stock,

23:16

I'm not here to try and make you feel,

23:18

you know, the daft because you're not

23:21

daft. You weren't daft. You just didn't

23:23

have the full playbook. You saw a

23:25

company you believed in. The numbers

23:27

look incredibly good. Everyone was

23:28

talking about Everybody was excited. And

23:31

you did what felt rational. You bought

23:34

it. And then 6 months later the stock

23:35

was cut in half. The insiders were on a

23:37

yacht and you were holding the bag. And

23:40

that happens again and again and it

23:41

pisses me off that this happens again

23:42

and again because

23:44

it's

23:45

not a money problem. It's not a

23:49

how clever you are problem. It's a skill

23:51

problem because Wall Street plays a

23:53

different game. They know these details.

23:56

They know when the lockup expires. They

23:57

know which insiders have the most to

23:59

sell. They've already positioned

24:03

in the supply chain plays months before

24:05

the ticker even hits your brokerage app.

24:07

So by the time you are allowed to click

24:09

buy, they were quite possibly selling.

24:12

And this isn't conspiracy theory. That's

24:14

it's literally just how how this works.

24:16

Now, I mentioned earlier we're going to

24:17

run a live free session this Saturday,

24:20

the greatest stock market opportunity

24:22

before SpaceX IPOs. I really do think

24:24

that is what this is. And I promise to

24:27

you that if you show up for this, you

24:28

will never ever walk into another IPO

24:32

blind again. You will never walk into a

24:34

hyped stock blind again. You'll know

24:37

where Wall Street's positioned before

24:39

everybody else even realizes it. You

24:41

know the setup, the timeline, and the

24:43

signals that tell you when the smart

24:45

money is leaving the building. And I can

24:48

prepare the most beautiful presentation

24:49

for you and teach it to you in a way

24:51

that the 12-year-old can understand, but

24:53

it only works if you show up for

24:54

yourself.

24:55

Not for me, but for yourself. I'll be

24:56

fine either the wet. So, this is about

24:58

whether you want to be the one buying

25:00

what insiders are selling or if you want

25:03

to be the one who actually understands

25:05

the full game, the full framework. It's

25:08

free. It's live. You can ask me anything

25:10

you want.

25:11

So, get your free ticket at

25:13

greatestplaybook.com.

25:15

We're never going to run this again

25:16

because there will never be another IPO

25:18

as big as this for a very long time. So,

25:21

this is a one-time chance to learn this

25:23

framework

25:24

and actually

25:25

still have time to benefit from

25:27

So, if you're going to join us, write

25:28

SpaceX in the comments right now. And

25:31

that way I know you're going to be

25:32

there. I know you're going to be

25:33

serious.

25:34

So, let's talk about what makes SpaceX

25:36

different from other IPO disasters I

25:39

just showed you because there is

25:41

literally a bull case case here and it's

25:42

a pretty strong one. And it starts with

25:45

the specific stocks

25:47

I'm looking at myself. There are five

25:49

plays here, five fingers even that I

25:51

want to walk you through. From the most

25:53

obvious to the most boring I've

25:54

organized.

25:55

Play number one is the supply chain for

25:58

SpaceX. You know, the picks and shovel

26:00

plays. And you've heard the first three

26:03

at the start of this video that we

26:04

talked about here. We talked about RDY,

26:07

we talked about VO, if I could spell

26:10

VOYG,

26:11

Voyager, and we talked about Fly.

26:15

Up 163%,

26:17

86%, 69% since I made the last video on

26:20

that. That doesn't guarantee you're

26:22

going to make money on this going

26:24

forward, which is why you need to

26:25

understand the framework and not the

26:28

stock picks, right? But if you got in on

26:30

this and you understood it, you've I've

26:32

got a good process for locking in

26:33

profits, congratulations. If you didn't

26:35

get into these, I would buy these only

26:37

on a pullback. Again, something I'll

26:39

walk you through on the weekend if you

26:40

wish. But the trade isn't over yet

26:43

because the SpaceX IPO hasn't even

26:45

happened yet. So, pay full attention to

26:47

the risk management part here. These are

26:49

small companies, right? They've moved

26:50

fast both ways.

26:53

Now, the second play, and this is less

26:55

risky. There's risk with all

26:57

investments, obviously. This is the chip

26:59

supply chain.

27:00

And this is the kind of setup that the

27:03

pros have been in for a long time, and I

27:05

want to break that down for you on the

27:06

weekend, including some opportunities

27:08

that are, you know, alive and kicking

27:09

right now, because SpaceX is building a

27:12

new AI chip.

27:13

They call it the

27:15

AI 5.

27:17

And to build the AI side of this

27:19

business, they need three companies more

27:22

than anyone else on Earth.

27:24

One of them is Taiwan Semiconductor,

27:26

TSMC.

27:28

They make every advanced chip on Earth.

27:31

Every SpaceX chip will go through their

27:34

factory. They're the most dominant

27:36

company in the market in the world.

27:39

The second company is Intel. The shift

27:41

to what's called agentic AI, AI that

27:44

does tasks, not just answers questions,

27:46

who just does things on its own, is

27:48

changing the demand mix from these

27:51

graphic

27:52

chips back to CPUs, you know, what we

27:55

used to have. Intel is the CPU monopoly,

27:59

essentially, although Nvidia has started

28:01

making them, too, but they don't have a

28:03

foundry. Intel is still pretty beaten

28:05

up. I mean, its stock's been left for

28:07

dead for like a decade, and then

28:09

suddenly doubles as it just is.

28:11

It's potentially this is the first leg.

28:13

It's not the last leg, right? There's

28:14

there's space here. And then we've got

28:16

Amkor.

28:17

And this is the really boring one. Chip

28:20

packaging.

28:21

The step not not the not the cardboard

28:23

box. We're not going that far in the

28:25

boringness, but it's the step that turns

28:27

the actual

28:28

silicon chip into something that can be

28:30

put in a device. And Amkor just built a

28:33

factory 7 miles from TSMC's Arizona

28:37

facility, which isn't a coincidence.

28:39

That's the supply chain reorganizing in

28:42

real time.

28:43

That's the second play. Now, the The

28:45

play,

28:47

numero

28:48

is the actual IPO.

28:50

When SpaceX goes public, a meaningful

28:52

slice of the shares will be reserved for

28:55

retail investors, and you can get them

28:57

through Schwab, Robinhood, SoFi, other

28:59

platforms, and so on. You can put in an

29:01

application, request it now, don't wait

29:03

until the last day, and then you're

29:04

going to get

29:06

a small allocation.

29:07

But the asymmetry is huge. If you get

29:10

even a few hundred shares at IPO price,

29:13

and the squeeze plays out the way I

29:14

think it might, there is some upside

29:16

here. Now, there is a risk with every

29:18

investment decision, and you're going to

29:20

take you're going to take responsibility

29:22

for your own decisions. I, as I say, not

29:24

a financial advisor.

29:26

But there is also a fourth play.

29:29

And the fourth play is the simplest, the

29:32

most boring, and the one that I would

29:34

highly recommend.

29:35

Not that I give financial advice.

29:37

Winston, come on here.

29:39

Sit down.

29:40

Do you want to walk us through choice

29:41

number four, Winston?

29:42

It is the Nasdaq itself.

29:45

QQQ.

29:46

It's the Nasdaq ETF. And the reason this

29:48

works is that remember the rule change

29:50

we talked about? Remember that Nasdaq is

29:53

going to force buy SpaceX into the index

29:57

within 15 days, and they're then going

29:59

to overweight it by three times because

30:01

of the small float, which means if you

30:03

own QQQ, the index is automatically

30:06

buying SpaceX for you.

30:08

So, you get the squeeze without trying

30:10

to time the squeeze. And this is

30:13

the most honest call I can give you. If

30:14

you don't trade actively, if you're a

30:16

beginner, this is the play. And

30:18

ironically, it's probably what wins in

30:20

the long term, but I never ever look at

30:23

a stock,

30:24

Winston doesn't either, unless we looked

30:26

at risk.

30:28

Uh and there are three rules that I give

30:29

you. We're going to go to a lot deeper

30:30

on this on the weekend and look at

30:32

opportunities particularly. I want to

30:33

really look at opportunities here that

30:34

aren't just SpaceX, but, you know, in

30:36

that space.

30:37

Um you need to have an exit rule. You

30:39

need to know when to sell.

30:42

Most people on Wall Street agree that by

30:45

the time we get to the end of the lockup

30:47

period, there will be some selling, not

30:50

as much as I think as people think

30:51

because most people will hold and borrow

30:53

against their shares, but just the fear

30:55

of people selling will make people sell.

30:57

You see what I mean? And that might be

30:59

an opportunity. It might be an

31:00

opportunity to potentially make some

31:02

money from now to lockup, get out before

31:04

well before the lockup, and then reenter

31:07

if that creates a dip. But

31:11

I want to be very honest with you here.

31:12

There is a huge risk to this. And the

31:15

huge risk is called Elon Musk. If Elon

31:17

Musk loses his marbles, the whole thing

31:20

blows up.

31:22

Because Elon's companies

31:25

are amazing and incredible because of

31:27

Elon.

31:28

Simple, right? Greatest founder,

31:30

greatest CEO, I'd argue alive.

31:34

And

31:35

doesn't mean you have to agree with

31:36

everything he does, but he's creating

31:37

stuff that no one's ever created before,

31:38

right? He's He's landing

31:40

rockets back on on Earth. And if you

31:42

think about that, imagine every time you

31:45

got onto a plane

31:46

and you flew, I don't know,

31:47

LA to Chicago, and the plane lands,

31:50

everyone gets out, and then they blow up

31:52

the plane. Every single time.

31:54

That's what we've been doing with

31:56

rockets going to space.

31:58

How much do you think your flight ticket

32:00

would cost if every single time you

32:01

flew, they would just blow up the plane?

32:04

Well, SpaceX and Elon have fixed that.

32:07

They're reusing the rockets, right?

32:09

So, the guy thinks on a level that very,

32:12

very few founders think on. And it He

32:14

also executes on a level that nobody

32:16

else seems to do.

32:17

So,

32:19

if Elon

32:20

is no longer compos mentis or around for

32:22

some reason in the early stages of

32:25

SpaceX really scaling now,

32:28

it's a problem. And you might think

32:29

that's very unlikely. It's very

32:31

unlikely, but you know, you got to plan

32:32

for the unlikely, right? That's why you

32:34

have car insurance, right? You don't buy

32:35

car insurance because you're planning on

32:37

you know, hitting a tree or running

32:39

somebody over. But so what I really want

32:41

you to take away from everything I just

32:43

showed you and I know there was a lot of

32:44

stuff which is why I gave you that free

32:46

research document at the beginning.

32:47

SpaceX is probably the most exciting

32:49

company on earth. The market they're

32:50

going after is incomprehensibly large.

32:53

Starlink alone could be worth more than

32:56

most countries entire economies. The

32:59

rocket launch business is pretty much a

33:01

monopoly right now.

33:02

It's also going to be the biggest

33:03

financial event of at least a decade.

33:06

But knowing that I will not help you.

33:08

Because knowing SpaceX is a great

33:10

company is not an investment strategy.

33:13

It's a headline. And I can tell you

33:15

right now SpaceX is going to be massive.

33:17

Most retail investors however will still

33:19

lose still lose money on it.

33:21

Like I talk about stocks sometimes. You

33:23

talked about one a little while ago that

33:24

was called you you you you went up 300%

33:27

on the point I made a video. People

33:29

complained to me in the comments that

33:31

they'd lost 70% on the stock. Tear my

33:33

hair out. But it also just shows me that

33:35

the gap in financial education is huge

33:37

and we got to do something about it.

33:38

Those guys lost money because they

33:39

didn't know the game that Wall Street's

33:42

playing.

33:43

Where the big money moves on A to B. And

33:45

if you're sitting there on IPO day and

33:47

you're placing a market order to buy

33:50

some of that stock, you're not really an

33:52

investor.

33:53

You're a customer. You are Wall Street's

33:56

customer.

33:57

And they love it.

33:59

And that's why I'm going to do the

34:00

session for you on Saturday live, free,

34:04

one time. It's called the greatest stock

34:06

market opportunity before the SpaceX

34:08

IPO.

34:09

And I'm going to teach you how Wall

34:10

Street finds these opportunities. I'm

34:12

going to walk you through Wall Street's

34:13

exact pre-IPO playbook, the signals they

34:16

watch, the timeline, the opportunities.

34:18

And I get it, people want me to tell

34:20

them buy SpaceX. They don't want to hear

34:22

learn the game before you play it. Learn

34:25

the rules before you enter the court.

34:28

But learning the game is the only thing

34:29

that separates the people who make money

34:32

from the people who make Wall Street

34:34

money. So, don't be that guy. Show up.

34:37

Show up for yourself. Links in the

34:38

description. It is entirely free. Timing

34:40

will work for you guys in the US. It'll

34:42

work for you in Europe. It'll probably

34:44

even work for people in Asia. Links in

34:46

the comments. Grab your free ticket.

34:48

Bring your questions. You can ask me to

34:49

do a big great big leap huge Q&A at the

34:52

end.

34:53

And if this video has helped you or it's

34:55

just surprised you in some ways,

34:58

and you're not just getting hype here,

35:00

but the actual mechanics, then share it.

35:02

Send the link to someone who's about to

35:05

put their savings in the IPO without

35:07

really understanding the game, and

35:09

they'll thank you later.

35:11

And I'll see you on Saturday. While

35:12

everyone's obsessing over the SpaceX's

35:15

IPO at about $2 trillion valuation,

35:18

I'm going to give you four already

35:20

listed space stocks that could deliver

35:23

massive returns.

Interactive Summary

The video analyzes the upcoming SpaceX IPO, arguing that it will not crash like other notable IPOs due to a structural 'squeeze.' The speaker highlights how high capital gains taxes and securities-backed lines of credit discourage early insiders from selling, while new Nasdaq rules force passive index funds to buy the stock shortly after listing. Additionally, the video explores SpaceX's massive total addressable market in space, connectivity, and AI, suggesting a potential long-term valuation of up to $10 trillion. Viewers are encouraged to learn the 'pre-IPO playbook' used by institutional investors to avoid becoming 'exit liquidity' and to consider specific supply chain and index-based investment strategies.

Suggested questions

3 ready-made prompts