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Big Investors Are BUYING Tesla Stock

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Big Investors Are BUYING Tesla Stock

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984 segments

0:00

Several news items important to Tesla

0:02

and future SpaceX investors dropped this

0:04

weekend. First, great news for robo

0:06

taxi. Tesla officially applied for an

0:08

autonomous vehicle network company

0:10

permit in Nevada. What's shocking is

0:12

Tesla seeking approval for up to 5,000

0:15

robo taxis during the first 12 months

0:17

after the permit is granted. If that

0:19

isn't a sign of an intention to scale, I

0:21

don't know what is. This comes as

0:23

reports from the DMV in Texas that says

0:25

there are now 51 vehicles registered as

0:27

robo taxis there. Second, SpaceX has

0:30

announced yet another mega deal. This

0:32

time, it's Google of all companies,

0:34

renting compute capacity for $920

0:36

million per month. Anthropic and Google

0:39

are now paying SpaceX a combined $2.17

0:42

billion per month for compute capacity.

0:45

That's a revenue run rate of 26 billion

0:47

per year if it's not terminated

0:49

beforehand. Of the Mag 7, Google was the

0:51

one you think would not need to rent

0:53

compute. And Elon Musk predicted this

0:55

last year when he posted his strategy

0:57

was to buy a ton of GPUs. Third, big

1:00

whales are buying Tesla stock. Dwan

1:03

Yongpin, also known as the Chinese

1:05

Warren Buffett, has bought nearly 1.3

1:07

billion in Tesla. He's been buying since

1:09

the first quarter. Dwan was previously a

1:12

skeptic of Elon, but now has had a

1:14

change of heart. Similarly, JP Morgan,

1:17

famously at war with Elon and who has

1:19

had a permanent bare position for years,

1:21

has also now upgraded their price target

1:23

from $145 to $475, a massive 230%

1:28

increase. No doubt it's got something to

1:30

do with being included in the SpaceX

1:32

IPO. And Morgan Stanley is also now back

1:34

in the game, also doing a complete

1:36

reversal by buying 1.26 billion worth of

1:39

Tesla stock in the first quarter. Big

1:41

money is pouring into Tesla. We got Jeff

1:44

Lutz here with us today. He's an exs

1:46

supply chain sea level executive from

1:47

Motorola, Google, Lenovo. He's currently

1:50

running his own consulting firm serving

1:52

mega cap tech in supply chain design and

1:55

manufacturing. Welcome Jeeoff.

1:56

>> Uh heyert. Yeah, a lot of news just came

1:58

out over the weekend. Uh just like a

2:01

super bullish news flow and I just it it

2:05

feels like these milestones are just

2:08

getting closer and closer. A new week

2:10

comes in. So just looking forward to

2:12

going through these. There's a lot of

2:13

lot of things that just flipped on Wall

2:15

Street and and as well as uh

2:18

fundamentally.

2:19

>> Well, the question I'm going to ask you

2:20

and we'll get to it is is the Tesla

2:23

buying the stock buying from the big

2:25

whales. Are they doing it because of

2:26

SpaceX or is it because of Tesla

2:30

potential 6 months coming up? Uh, one of

2:32

the big signs is robo taxi. A lot of

2:35

people are pretty disappointed with the

2:37

progress. We're pretty well in June now.

2:40

June 22nd was the big launch date of

2:43

Robo Taxi last year in Austin and today

2:46

it's not as uh you know widespread and

2:49

as many cars as people had hoped within

2:51

a year but this is really good sign

2:54

here. Uh over the weekend Tesla

2:56

officially applied for an autonomous

2:58

vehicle network company permit in Nevada

3:01

seeking approval for up to 5,000 robo

3:04

taxis during the first 12 months after

3:06

the permit is granted. The filing covers

3:08

Clark County, including Harry Reid

3:10

International Airport and Henderson

3:12

Executive Airport, according to a new

3:14

public notice from the Nevada Transport

3:16

Authority, Jeff 5,000.

3:20

I mean, is it just, hey, go ahead and

3:23

shoot for the largest number or do you

3:25

think this actually has, you know, real

3:27

intentions of that many?

3:29

>> No, you wouldn't shoot for the highest

3:31

number. And I've dealt with regulatory

3:34

before in many different aspects. That's

3:37

the last thing you want to do is just

3:38

put a high number in and and rush

3:41

through the process because what could

3:42

happen is is it could cause more

3:45

scrutiny uh on the number and and just

3:49

more back and forth. You you want to go

3:51

in with the most you think you're going

3:52

to do, but also uh something that isn't

3:56

going to just cause all kinds of um

3:59

holdups uh during the approval process.

4:02

To me, this is representative of the

4:08

kind of scale that Tesla's going for in

4:11

robo taxi. Yes, we know the difference

4:14

between a permit submission and reality.

4:19

We know how many cars are on the road

4:22

today in Texas. But this this to me and

4:26

this is over the first year. This really

4:30

starts to to me really shows the the

4:34

relative comp to I mean the the the

4:37

highest

4:39

uh robo taxi vendor today. Whimo has I

4:42

think 3,700 cars across the nation

4:46

across the entire country. And so this

4:49

says two things. One is Tesla has the

4:52

economics to to do this to put up this

4:55

capital to get this fleet out there and

4:58

also says that those economics will work

5:00

very quickly cuz what you would wouldn't

5:03

want to do is you wouldn't want to put a

5:04

bunch of stuff out there that doesn't

5:05

have a time to break even that's

5:07

relatively quick. So this tells me that

5:11

they can get profitable very quickly.

5:13

They have a very high ceiling on the

5:15

number of vehicles that they can put in

5:17

a specific area and the economics work

5:21

for them. And I think this is this is

5:24

what's holding other robo taxi vendors

5:26

back. They would put more cars out, but

5:29

there's only so many people that are

5:31

going to that are going to call these

5:34

rides at $3 to $5 an hour, you know, $8,

5:37

$10 an hour. There's only so many of

5:39

those that they're going to do. And

5:41

there's only so many of those vehicles

5:42

that they can actually fabricate and get

5:45

put out on the road because they're

5:47

quite frankly they're losing money per

5:49

ride. So if you take their the

5:51

competitive unit economics that's

5:54

limiting the number of cars and you take

5:56

Tesla's unit economics, they're going

5:58

for a much bigger number in a smaller

6:00

concentrated area. I I this was very

6:04

surprising to me to see actually that

6:06

number that size going for this permit

6:09

submission and it was is also very

6:11

encouraging.

6:13

Jeeoff, you've done this before. Uh when

6:15

you submit a permit like this for some

6:17

authority, in this case the uh business

6:20

and industry Nevada transportation

6:21

authority, do you think that Tesla would

6:23

already kind of you know have felt them

6:26

ahead of time got them to say, "Hey,

6:27

what if I approve 5,000 or if I threw

6:29

2,000? Would you how would you guys

6:31

react? Would he already kind of know or

6:33

No,

6:34

>> there's there should be conversations

6:36

happening uh in advance. It doesn't

6:39

necessarily mean that there's an

6:41

explicit conversation about certain

6:44

factors, but likely they wouldn't put a

6:48

number in there that they think they

6:49

could not get approved. Um

6:52

>> and there is there is also some time

6:54

element to it being over the first year

6:59

and of course if something goes ary you

7:01

know I think what Tesla has done over

7:04

this last 6 months is shown that they're

7:06

very judicious and very careful with the

7:09

rollout and I actually think that that's

7:10

going to be part of the submission

7:13

uh that's going to be part of the

7:14

evidence for the submission is is the

7:15

Nitsa data and how well they're actually

7:18

performing.

7:19

>> Yeah. And if you're a regulator in

7:21

Nevada and you've got high cost issues,

7:24

you've got you've got, you know, these

7:27

really peak these huge peak demand

7:29

cycles that occur during these

7:31

conferences, events, and and and

7:34

holidays. This is this is the perfect

7:36

solution, a lowcost solution that can

7:38

scale quickly. Mhm. Yeah. They probably

7:41

are what is it June and so they July

7:44

they have six months of data now and

7:45

which is so far submissions to NITS it's

7:48

looking like u there's very few major

7:50

accidents in fact if anything it's minor

7:52

if in fact it's zero that is the best

7:55

data to present to them. Uh, it looks

7:57

like that in Texas, Texas DMV data is

8:01

saying that Tesla Robbo taxi LLC added

8:04

four more Model Y and now the registered

8:07

fleet is 51 vehicles. Yeah, that's how

8:11

we know.

8:12

>> Yeah.

8:12

>> By the way, uh, the robo taxi tracker

8:14

that we've been using for a while, um,

8:17

Evan, the the guy in charge of it, he

8:19

was hired,

8:20

>> Ethan Yeah. he was hired by Tesla. And

8:24

so he actually publicly told folks that

8:27

you know you can't he's not been

8:28

updating he cannot update it u uh for

8:32

the next several months until past

8:33

August when he might in he's just for

8:36

the summer intern I think he is.

8:38

>> So just FYI that data that we're seeing

8:40

robo taxi tracker may not be as accurate

8:42

as as it used to be or it would never

8:44

was accurate but you know being kept up

8:45

to date and so forth.

8:47

>> Okay. Uh other news quickly quickly

8:50

here. Robo taxi demo is now expected in

8:52

August according to reports and I think

8:54

that even um Fron was interviewed over

8:58

the weekend at the Tesla takeover in

9:00

Austria and he had said that it's coming

9:02

soon. Tesla has pushed the nextG

9:04

Roadster demo to August. Uh that might

9:07

make sense according to the information.

9:10

What do you think about this? It makes

9:12

sense because it's after the June um

9:14

IPO. Maybe that's when they'll want to

9:16

do it.

9:18

Well, I they're not supposed to be

9:21

connected, but there's a lot of

9:22

catalysts that are coming up for Tesla

9:25

and this I think this permit submission

9:27

to Nevada was a a nice signal to start

9:32

that off. It looks like we're starting

9:34

to add a few vehicles in Texas, but

9:36

that's that's not a meaningful number uh

9:39

yet. But it looks like we're getting

9:41

very close. If you just look at it, like

9:43

again, this is like to me any product

9:45

ramp up that you're doing. When you're

9:47

getting all of your factories set up,

9:49

you're getting material put into the

9:51

factories. To me, that's these robo

9:52

taxies that are being deployed and

9:55

parked in all these various cities. And

9:57

then you're hiring people for the

9:59

factories. I view that each of these

10:01

cities as its own little factory. and

10:03

you're you're hiring people. You look on

10:05

the job boards, there's Tesla's hiring

10:07

hundreds of people for robo taxi

10:10

management type positions to manage

10:13

these fleets uh across the country and

10:16

assume across the world. So to me, this

10:19

is all part of a a roll out of a the the

10:22

production of a product. And to this is

10:25

this is what it looks like to me. It

10:27

looks very similar to it. It's funded.

10:29

The requisitions are funded. They're

10:31

posted. The job postings are in the

10:33

system, everything's funded, and which

10:36

to me the funding would be cut off if

10:39

the engine if the engineering team said,

10:40

"Hey, look, I don't have a solution

10:42

that's going to get there." Finance

10:43

would come in right away and pull those

10:45

requisitions. That's not happening. So,

10:49

to me, this is a setup. The Roadster in

10:52

in August is part of a number of

10:54

different catalysts that are just

10:56

building up for Tesla. So you have the

10:59

roll out of robo taxi. You have

11:02

potentially a Model Y introduction in in

11:05

North America. You've got the reveal of

11:07

Optimus. You have the Roadster uh

11:11

reveal. And to these are these these

11:14

milestones are both they hit the

11:17

economics of the company like the ramp

11:19

up of robo taxi but and then with the

11:21

roadster optimist reveals they're

11:23

they're really showing the extents of of

11:27

the uh of of the tech that is available

11:32

at Tesla but it's also in combination

11:34

with SpaceX. Roadster is a SpaceX and

11:37

Tesla product. It's mostly a Tesla

11:39

product with some SpaceX tech in it.

11:43

Optimus is a Tesla product with a SpaceX

11:48

brain in it. So, there's a lot of these

11:52

these milestones coming up. And then

11:54

you've got there's some great uh video

11:56

footage this morning uh from

12:00

SE

12:01

um who who published the an aerials of

12:04

of the Houston factory for the mega

12:06

block and it looks like the exterior of

12:09

that factory is done for mega block mega

12:11

pack production in Houston. That's going

12:13

to be a 50 gawatt hour factory. Looks

12:15

like the exterior is done and now they

12:17

have to of course facilitize and and and

12:20

install the capex inside. We don't know

12:22

what's going on inside. they may be they

12:24

may be very far along. So you have that

12:26

milestone coming up for the energy side.

12:28

So you just have a lot of catalyst

12:30

building cyber cab roadster robo taxi

12:34

rollout model y l optimus reveal uh mega

12:39

block uh factory startup. There's a lot

12:42

of catalyst building up for Tesla uh

12:44

just on its own. So I think when we

12:46

start hearing about what these analysts

12:47

and they're starting to pile in, I mean

12:50

these things every day, every day that

12:51

goes by is a day that these catalysts

12:53

get closer.

12:55

>> Yeah.

12:56

>> One more thing. Sorry, one quick thing.

12:59

Q2 looks to be

13:03

really strong. I mean, every indication

13:05

we're getting on every monthly delivery

13:07

metric, it looks like net net and some

13:09

countries are lower, but most countries

13:11

are a lot higher in deliveries. looks

13:13

like it's a net 28% higher through May

13:18

of auto deliveries and then you had this

13:20

slow uh energy in Q1. So there may be a

13:24

big Q2. Anyway, Q2 is another catalyst

13:27

that we'll hear about in the third week

13:29

of July. So you have a lot of things

13:31

coming over the next call it four to

13:32

eight weeks.

13:34

>> Yeah. Uh SpaceX and Tesla are definitely

13:36

intertwined. Imagine if something

13:38

happened with Tesla that would impact if

13:41

something happened with Tesla's robo

13:42

taxi that would impact the SpaceX IPO.

13:45

Maybe that was one reason. We had a deep

13:48

discussion about this at our last Cyber

13:49

Balls on Friday. Uh so SpaceX, good list

13:54

by the way. Thank you for that great

13:56

list of the things that are coming up.

13:58

SpaceX quietly amended their S1 and

14:00

there's another mega deal. My god.

14:04

Google is apparently a new customer of

14:06

SpaceX AI. They're paying $920 million a

14:10

month, almost a billion dollars every

14:12

month from October 2026 to June 2029 at

14:15

three years. But of course, Elon had

14:18

already made me mentioned before he

14:20

wants both anthropic and Google deals to

14:22

have an easy out. You can terminate

14:24

either party can terminate the agreement

14:26

within 90 days notice because I think

14:28

Elon is saying, "Well, maybe we might

14:30

need it. Kick them out." But $920

14:33

million, that's huge. The question, of

14:36

course, is why would of all companies of

14:39

the MAG7, Google's the one that you

14:41

would say would not need this? Um, this

14:44

is the filing, the amendment. They just

14:46

keep doing these amendments to the, uh,

14:47

this is amendment number two to the S1.

14:50

Uh, I'm sure there's more to come. They

14:52

want to kind of build up the news prior

14:54

to Friday. This is a big one. So

14:57

combined, Anthropic and Google are

14:59

paying 2.17 billion a month. Now if you

15:02

do a revenue reneion

15:05

a year, fourth of Tesla just like that

15:08

uh big money and then this guy was

15:11

saying wait Google's paying SpaceX 920

15:14

million per month for GPUs. Google the

15:16

company that builds its own TPUs that

15:18

runs one of the largest cloud

15:19

infrastructures on Earth is renting

15:21

110,000 Nvidia GPUs from a rocket

15:23

company. I'm not sure how to make out of

15:26

this. Google's the one that should have

15:27

been able to do this. Should be the one

15:29

to rent things out and uh and then um

15:33

Elon Yeah. So Elon knew that this was

15:36

coming. I'll get there shortly. But

15:37

what's your reaction to this uh Google

15:39

announcement as a customer?

15:40

>> My reaction is is the reactions are

15:43

strange. They're not renting GPUs from

15:45

Nvidia. Let's be very clear. And Google

15:48

doesn't make TPUs. Broadcom makes TPUs.

15:51

Google designs TPUs. It's important. And

15:54

the reason it's important is

15:58

te SpaceX a XAI and SpaceX call it

16:01

SpaceX now Elon and his SpaceX team they

16:05

started this flywheel by taking chips

16:10

from off of TSMC's doc who makes the

16:13

chips for Nvidia and building out their

16:16

coherent clusters to be bigger and

16:19

building them out faster than anybody

16:22

else does it. And so when you every time

16:26

I see these deals come through, I'm

16:28

like, everybody's looking at the revenue

16:30

and I'm looking at the revenue, too. But

16:32

what I'm looking at is, wow, the

16:33

utilization of their cluster is going to

16:36

go through the roof because you've got

16:38

two of the two of the top two or three

16:41

frontier model providers in the world

16:44

are want as much of your capacity as you

16:47

want to give them. So the utilization,

16:49

the fixed cost absorption is going to go

16:51

through the roof, which is good. The

16:54

utilization is going to go through the

16:56

roof. And SpaceX, their costs are their

16:59

costs per token are just going to go

17:00

down, down, down. So this flywheel is

17:03

turning because Elon and his team can go

17:06

from these disparent chips and system

17:09

components that are all over the world

17:12

and build it out into a coherent cluster

17:14

faster than anybody else running it at

17:17

appears to be a lower cost. These

17:19

companies have like they said with

17:20

Google, these companies have options.

17:23

They didn't have to do this. And it

17:26

looks like there could be some other

17:27

things connected to these deals as well,

17:29

which is like, look, if you make these

17:31

terrestrial deals with me on capacity

17:34

and you help drive up my utilization,

17:37

then maybe I'll I'll I'll give you an

17:39

early ticket to space when cuz right now

17:42

I have the only vehicle that's getting

17:44

data centers into space on, you know,

17:47

accur accurately and something you can

17:49

depend on. So this is a very very

17:53

powerful flywheel that is starting from

17:55

the very you know ele small elements of

17:58

the supply chain all the way to how how

18:02

much capacity Starship has and how

18:04

frequently it's going to be able to make

18:06

these trips to put data centers in space

18:09

and Google Anthropic they want to be in

18:12

the front of the line for that and it

18:14

looks like it's helping their cost per

18:15

token. Anthropic and Google have two of

18:18

the top three costs per token right now

18:21

in the world. Uh, OpenAI is up there. I

18:24

think Grock is like fourth or fifth,

18:26

maybe sixth. And then you have the

18:28

Chinese models below it. So, this helps

18:31

Anthropic. This helps uh Google's cost

18:34

per token. This helps SpaceX cost per

18:36

token. And of course, it's this huge

18:38

revenue driver. So, this is this is

18:41

brilliant. This is going to bode very

18:44

well. And when you have these businesses

18:46

that are connected,

18:48

I I I guarantee this is an early

18:51

anthropic and in and Google won an early

18:54

ticket to space-based

18:55

>> data space. Yeah, I think that's the the

18:58

right point. I'll I'll share you a

19:00

interview of this the CF uh the CFO or

19:04

the co-founder of Anthropic saying

19:06

exactly that. I think that that's a key.

19:08

My prediction is I think Microsoft is

19:10

lined up. Now, I don't know if they have

19:12

enough space in Colossus 2. Maybe they

19:14

don't, but if they did, you know, Coloss

19:16

Microsoft can't trust OpenI anymore.

19:18

They were like partners. I don't think

19:20

they are. I think they're going to feel

19:22

like they're left out. They're going to

19:24

That's going to be a huge bomb if they

19:26

come out and say, "I've got another

19:27

billion dollar per month deal

19:31

for Microsoft been there because the top

19:33

of the building says macro hard."

19:36

>> Interesting. Yeah, they're making fun of

19:38

them for that reason. But I think at the

19:39

end of the day, dude, listen, some

19:41

people are saying, why did Elon partner

19:43

with Google, right? Google was

19:45

>> it could

19:46

>> Larry Page, the guy that was e, you

19:48

know, was evil

19:50

>> and now he's giving him data center to

19:52

>> Yeah.

19:53

>> Right. to eliminate.

19:55

>> Yeah, you're right. It it doesn't as

19:57

long as each company feels that there's

20:00

a benefit, it's ethical,

20:03

uh, that they'll make a deal. They

20:05

don't. They'll let bygones be rock.

20:07

SpaceX and Open AI may make a deal.

20:10

Don't don't scoff.

20:12

>> I don't know about that one. Okay, that

20:13

you're pushing it there. You're pushing

20:15

it. All right. Okay. So, uh Elon knew

20:18

that this was happening. Look at this.

20:19

September of 2025. So, that was like uh

20:21

you know, eight months, whatever ago. He

20:23

said, "Buy a shitload of GPU. Step two,

20:26

I don't know, but step three, I know

20:28

I'll profit. I'll know I'll profit." And

20:30

this guy said, "Xi master plan was right

20:33

under a nose all along." Elon, this is

20:36

his post at the time. Elon said,

20:37

"Hardware is hard. Hardware is hard.

20:41

Hiding in plain sight." The strategy was

20:43

always hiding in plain sight. Um, you

20:46

know, so it's not just buying, like you

20:48

said earlier, it's not just buying the

20:49

chips. It's actually creating a coherent

20:52

data center. And that's that's that's

20:54

why these guys are struggling and the

20:56

cost and utilization all that that

20:59

you're talking about.

21:00

>> By the way, it's the same it's the same

21:02

playbook for robo taxi

21:04

>> the the the cost structure of Tesla robo

21:07

taxis and allow them to drive up really

21:09

high utilization and where Uber can't do

21:13

that. They won't be able to compete with

21:14

the cost structure. It's it's not only

21:17

the cost per vehicle and the cost of you

21:20

know cleaning and so forth. those in

21:23

unit economics it's the it's the rate of

21:25

fixed cost absorption and this same

21:28

playbook is is going to play out in robo

21:30

taxi

21:32

>> yeah okay operations cost all right uh

21:36

you mentioned earlier that you you one

21:38

of the suspicions you have is that these

21:40

guys are lining up because they want

21:41

first dibs if one space data centers

21:44

become a thing and that's true so

21:46

anthropic the uh Daniela Amod president

21:50

and co-founder of anthropic I think

21:52

she's the sister of

21:54

>> Dara Dario. Thank you. Anthropic is

21:58

interested in SpaceX data centers in

21:59

space. According to her, Thropic

22:01

expressed preliminary interest in using

22:03

potential SpaceX data centers in space.

22:06

Uh while playing down the near-term

22:08

timeline, she doesn't think that you'll

22:10

be able to do it until 2027, which

22:13

actually in our in our to-do list in

22:15

2027. That's kind of earlier. I thought

22:17

it was 2028 or even longer than that.

22:19

Let's listen to what she said. next

22:20

year.

22:21

>> SpaceX Anthropic expressed preliminary

22:23

interest in using potential data centers

22:26

in space. Uh what do you think about

22:28

that? Is that a reality? And how far out

22:30

are we from that?

22:31

>> I don't think that data centers in space

22:33

are something that will be uh will be on

22:35

our our to-do list in in 2027. But I you

22:38

know, I will say AI is the field that

22:41

has surprised me the most. It's probably

22:43

surprised the world the most in terms of

22:44

just what new things are possible are

22:47

made possible by the advent of this

22:48

technology. So, um, no immediate

22:51

immediate plans for, uh, for working

22:52

with the astronauts to to get Space

22:54

Center, uh, data centers going, but you

22:56

never know.

22:58

>> Oh, okay. So, she actually it's the

22:59

opposite of what I I guess what I was

23:01

thinking. She said, "No plans doing it."

23:03

Uh, I certainly won't be thinking about

23:05

it's not on our to-do list in 2027.

23:08

>> It's not ready, so it's it's fine. And

23:10

it's in a couple years out, but the get

23:15

in in supply chain there's things like

23:18

for example this lithography equipment

23:20

to make chips. There's things that you

23:22

have to reserve three and 5 years in

23:24

advance. And don't think that these

23:27

companies, back to our previous

23:28

discussion, aren't going to be lining up

23:30

to get a ticket on Starship. Don't don't

23:33

think that that's not going to happen.

23:34

And don't think that that's not going to

23:35

be tied to a bunch of deals. hardware is

23:40

Elon has has taken this capability in

23:42

hardware and manufacturing and turned it

23:44

around into a massive competitive moat.

23:47

This is why Teslas are made profitable.

23:50

This is why robo taxis are going to

23:52

scale faster including of course FSD and

23:56

Tesla's endtoend approach. But it

24:00

Tesla's hardware approach

24:03

it which is the same you know ethos

24:05

inside of SpaceX

24:08

that is creating a tremendous moat for

24:10

both of these companies

24:12

uh that just these other these other

24:14

companies that are purely just have

24:17

these pure software skills that are

24:18

dabbling like Enthropic Anthropic is

24:22

hiring chip designers. They've got a

24:23

team. Open AAI's got a team. Like

24:25

they're trying to get into it. they're

24:27

trying to do the hardware side of this.

24:29

It's not going to be easy. And you can't

24:32

just do hardware. You've got to you've

24:35

got to really have a competitive

24:36

advantage cuz if you just do it and you

24:39

get something out there, you may erase

24:41

that that margin you were paying to an

24:43

Nvidia or whatever. But it's not in the

24:45

end, you're not going to have an

24:46

advantage because they're going to be

24:47

able to move faster. You're going to

24:49

have to do something that they cannot

24:52

do. That's why the size of terraab and

24:55

the collocation of terraab and and

24:58

everything that's inside of a terapab is

25:00

so unique to like what a TSMC fab is

25:02

like. When Elon takes these things on,

25:05

he approaches them in a different more

25:07

holistic manner than than just doing

25:09

what Terraab is not another TSMC.

25:14

teraf yeah you know this this concept of

25:18

hardware expertise and experience takes

25:21

years and then it shows up and here just

25:24

one more point about SpaceX then we're

25:25

going to talk Tesla stock you know this

25:28

is another example you know you're

25:30

you're you're competing against LLM

25:32

which is a software intelligent AGIS and

25:34

then Elon says okay you need the

25:37

hardware so I'm gonna buy this data

25:38

center so I'm gonna get it up sooner I'm

25:40

gonna buy more than everyone else now

25:41

they're renting out to the other players

25:43

the came and then all of a sudden the

25:45

revenue comes like that. And that's my

25:47

point that people were not even thinking

25:49

that these revenue were existing and now

25:52

they're $26 billion per year if it was

25:55

if it was a full year run rate just like

25:57

that. And you know Rob Mer said remember

26:00

a couple weeks ago when everyone was

26:01

saying a 100x price per sales was crazy

26:04

for SpaceX and all of a sudden in just a

26:06

couple weeks it's now like 39x. Shows

26:08

how dumb that type of analysis is. And I

26:10

think that's the same kind of you know

26:12

fallacy with Tesla.

26:15

Now Tesla's has taken four years. So

26:18

people are you know given yes you're

26:20

right it has taken a long time but at

26:21

some point all of the preparation the

26:24

infrastructure the it's not just the

26:25

cars the operational that they're

26:26

working on and you pointed out it's

26:28

going to show up and it's going to show

26:29

up and it's going to be scale and then

26:31

it's like that all of a sudden massive

26:33

revenue massive earnings. So

26:36

>> put a pin in something Herbert one

26:37

before we jump into the next topic

26:39

because the other side of this debate is

26:43

Elon and SpaceX built out too much

26:45

compute. Grock is not good enough

26:48

>> and does not need the compute and

26:50

therefore he's got to go sell it.

26:52

>> First off, he's not selling this compute

26:54

for pennies on the dollar. He is getting

26:57

a very good rate for for what he's for

27:01

what he's selling. Second, if you you

27:05

have to be literate and you have to read

27:07

the even the the short contractual terms

27:10

that are put out. He's he gives a le a

27:13

90day or less notice that he could pull

27:16

the capacity back.

27:18

>> This is totally a utilization play. This

27:21

is going to take SpaceX cost per token

27:24

way down and he can pull the capacity

27:27

within 90 days. You can't get Nvidia

27:30

chips. If you put an order in, you are

27:32

not getting Nvidia hardware within 90

27:34

days. Much less are you then receiving

27:36

that hardware and building a new data

27:39

center. So Elon has given himself the

27:41

the flexibility in his company the

27:44

flexibility to turn on and off this

27:46

leased out capacity faster than the

27:49

other companies or his company can get

27:51

chips and then certainly faster than

27:53

they could actually build out a new data

27:55

center. So tell me who's actually in

27:57

control if he can do that inside of the

28:00

lead time for the actual physical

28:02

hardware to be made. Who's actually in

28:04

control? So this take and this take is

28:07

out all over CNBC and it's all over uh

28:11

traditional coastal media is oh Grock

28:15

isn't good enough. He doesn't need the

28:17

compute. He overbuilt it. So now he's

28:18

selling it. But if you look at the

28:20

contractual terms, he is totally in

28:23

control of this and both financially and

28:27

to to take the capacity back for himself

28:30

when his next, you know, multi- trillion

28:33

models parameter models are ready.

28:36

>> And yeah, it's a good reminder that

28:37

there Grock is running seven models on

28:41

Colossus 2. So it's not like uh they're

28:44

using all of it, but they're already

28:45

running seven. One of them is 1.5

28:47

trillion, which is more than everyone

28:48

else. So, it's crazy. He just overbuilt

28:51

like significantly. And then wait till

28:53

he uses it. Wait till they use it. Then

28:56

you're talking about a magnitude

28:57

difference in intelligence. All right,

28:59

let's go back to Tesla. Uh big whales

29:02

are buying Tesla. Now, you can say

29:04

they're buying it because they're

29:05

preparing for robo taxi scale next year.

29:07

You went through a massive long list of

29:09

all these great milestones that are

29:11

coming in the next six months. Or they

29:13

could buying it because they want to be

29:15

in good graces with Elon for SpaceX IPO.

29:17

make a lot of money that way and

29:19

certainly Morgan Stanley JP Morgan I

29:21

would put in that category but this guy

29:23

Dwan Yungpin he's considered to be the

29:25

Chinese Warren Buffett he's built a 1.27

29:30

billion position Tesla in a Q in Q1 um

29:33

so he owns 3.4 million shares market

29:36

value is 1.27 27 billion. It's 6.3% of

29:39

his total portfolio, fifth largest

29:41

holding overall.

29:43

>> He bought Yeah, that 6% not just 1%. And

29:47

uh reported price of $371. So it's not

29:50

like it wasn't cheap, but it also

29:52

obviously it's not it wasn't expensive.

29:54

He's been buying over the last year. um

29:57

widely recognized for his highly

29:59

concentrated ultra disciplined value

30:01

investing philosophy

30:03

uh his and what makes it incred

30:05

incredible was that his complete change

30:07

of heart historically he was a vocal

30:09

skeptic of Elon he shifted his stance

30:12

after experiencing Tesla's efficacy

30:13

firsthand yeah people just don't believe

30:16

it until they try it he recently praised

30:19

the tech as truly remarkable completely

30:21

separating his personal opinion of Musk

30:23

from the objective economic and product

30:25

disruption Tesla is driving. Kudos

30:28

legendary value whale deployed this much

30:31

capital. Tesla provides massive

30:33

institutional validation for long-term

30:35

autonomy thesis.

30:37

>> That's going to make all the uh Tesla's

30:39

at too high a PE people their heads

30:42

explode. They look these these people

30:45

are seeing things and they're timing

30:47

things. You know, sometimes they get it

30:48

right, sometimes they get it wrong. But

30:51

you what you want to do is whenever

30:53

these companies are making a move, you

30:55

just want to understand why they're

30:57

doing it and kind of how big is the move

30:59

relative to their portfolio. But they're

31:02

not always right and sometimes they're

31:04

wrong. You just look at the reasons. I

31:06

heard that he took a recent FSD ride and

31:10

I think a lot of people are getting

31:11

hooked. A lot of people are getting

31:13

hooked to buy the car off of just off of

31:16

just a single FSD ride. And I could

31:18

imagine it also driving investment. I I

31:23

remember the first time I test drove a

31:26

Tesla. It it was this was over gosh 13

31:31

years ago, more than 13 years ago. And

31:34

you know, I was ordering it the same day

31:37

and I was in it was on a Saturday and I

31:39

was investing on Monday when the market

31:42

opened. It it was that meaningful of an

31:45

experience for me and just that one test

31:47

drive. And again, this was no FSD. There

31:49

was nothing at the time. It was to me it

31:51

was just the the performance and

31:53

capability of the vehicle and how it

31:55

drove. And now look where we are now 13

31:58

years later when you get in the car and

32:00

you just have to say, you know, hey

32:02

Grock, I want to go here and everything

32:06

is it's one button press and you're and

32:08

the car is driving itself. So some of

32:10

that is happening. I think there's a

32:12

there's a huge word of mouth eye opening

32:15

thing happening with FSD2 because it's

32:17

so it's so good at this point and now

32:20

other countries are experiencing it that

32:22

it's also going to drive some of this

32:23

activity.

32:24

>> Yeah. Here is his portfolio two 20

32:27

billion. This is as of Q1 19 19 stocks

32:31

and then uh Tesla is in the top five

32:34

holdings but his biggest holding is

32:35

actually Apple 36% Birkshire Hathaway

32:39

21% Nvidia 12% company called Pin Dual

32:42

Duel and then Tesla. So uh but that if

32:46

you look at the change percentage change

32:48

in portfolio in Q1 Tesla's actually

32:51

number one 6% growth in how much he

32:54

invested in that. Yeah it's good list. I

32:56

like his list. Uh, makes sense. But he

32:59

just did a complete reversal and so did

33:02

JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley. If you

33:03

guys know JP Morgan was a perma bearund

33:06

and whatever dollars hated Tesla

33:09

>> $50 car. Yeah.$145

33:12

>> for years

33:14

and now they changed. Now they've

33:16

upgraded to a buy underway to neutral

33:19

sorry but now 475. It's crazy. 145 to

33:22

475. 227% increase in there. I mean,

33:26

three major factors. I don't know where

33:27

he where this guy got this from. Um, AI

33:31

and autonomy shift, market and reality

33:33

check. Yeah, they've had it for years. I

33:36

don't think that's it. Burring the

33:37

hatchet. And we know that Jamie Diamond

33:39

just hosted Elon Musk last weekend, last

33:42

week. Uh, and actually interviewed him

33:43

and his mother. I honestly feel like

33:46

Jamie said, "Hey, can we have May Musk

33:49

here so that you know he'll like me

33:51

again?" You know, like I'm gonna be nice

33:53

to the mom. Uh but we know that and and

33:56

so so is pointing out that this price

33:58

target wasn't because oh they became

34:00

bullish all of a sudden. They they they

34:01

basically got rid of the old analyst.

34:03

They got a new analyst and the new

34:05

analyst is saying this now clearly from

34:08

my perspective it's because they want to

34:09

be part of the SpaceX IPO and so now

34:12

they're making good and trying to you

34:14

know make amends have a new analyst fix

34:17

this. Elon says fine you're part of the

34:19

IPO and that's what happened.

34:20

>> But at the core of it the old analyst

34:22

wasn't accurate. That's to me the core

34:24

of it.

34:25

>> If if he was bearish and accurate, I

34:27

would have tremendous respect for that.

34:30

I always want to hear the bear case, but

34:33

whether you're you're bullish and not

34:34

accurate or bearish and inaccurate

34:37

and that's why he's not there. So, I

34:41

think that's I think that's actually

34:43

more of the driving case, but I I can

34:44

see these other ancillary things uh

34:48

stepping in. it they're not it's not

34:50

supposed to there's supposed to be a

34:51

wall between these things but like I I

34:54

get the story about a wall all the time.

34:56

There's a wall at the ad you know the ad

34:59

buyers for these there there's no way

35:00

that they're buying ads just to get

35:02

favor with the of course they are. So

35:05

yeah these walls really don't exist.

35:07

This is what this this this example is

35:09

showing you that the other analyst

35:11

wasn't he wasn't accurate.

35:13

Yeah. Uh it's embarrassing actually and

35:15

they just did it because I think a spite

35:18

and of course he was wrong. Uh Morgan

35:20

Sally they've also are now back in the

35:22

game and they're buying. So they've in

35:24

the Q1 again everybody's was buying in

35:26

Q1. Another $1.26 billion of capital

35:29

back into Tesla. Big money stacking

35:31

again. You know this is the thing about

35:33

uh what's happening is now institutions

35:36

own over 51% of Tesla stock. Retail,

35:40

which used to be over 50%, is now down

35:42

to 31%.

35:44

So that's it. Big money is buying Tesla

35:46

now. This is we've been waiting for

35:48

this.

35:48

>> Yeah.

35:49

>> Stock is flat.

35:50

>> Yeah.

35:50

>> I

35:51

>> retail getting scared out because of

35:53

Robbo taxi too slow, right? Like the

35:55

wrong timing for retail to get scared

35:57

out.

35:58

>> Yeah. Again, we're not giving anybody

36:00

advice what what or when to do do

36:02

things, but

36:04

uh it just looks like a table's being

36:06

set and and dinner time is like it's

36:10

it's around, you know, 6:30 7 like it's

36:13

close. We don't know exactly when dinner

36:16

is going to be called, but you can smell

36:18

it like it's close.

36:20

>> Uh but at the same time, you know,

36:23

people can do whatever they want.

36:24

There's other there's other stock

36:26

there's many other stocks like there's

36:28

so many other themes that are happening

36:30

in the market right now. uh people can

36:32

do whatever they want but uh you I mean

36:37

we're showing data both the the banks

36:38

the institutions

36:40

and these these mega hedge funds are

36:44

starting to to I don't think it's enough

36:47

by the way I don't think it's like it's

36:49

not across the board like if you look at

36:50

some of these across the board they just

36:51

look like mag seven uh these hedge funds

36:55

just holding to just a ton of mag seven

36:56

stocks but I think there's going to be

37:00

this here's where I predict is

37:02

happening. There was a shift from chips

37:04

and just mag 7 a year or so ago. And I'm

37:08

not saying those stocks are bad. They're

37:09

they're obviously doing very well. The

37:10

earnings growth is great. But then

37:12

there's clearly been a shift over the

37:14

last year to the AI AI ancillary stocks.

37:17

The stocks the companies that are

37:20

that feed power into the data center for

37:22

example and so forth. They're those are

37:24

going cooling and so forth. Those have

37:26

been going through the roof. I think the

37:28

next rotation there could be many

37:31

rotations but one is definitely into

37:32

physical AI. I think Tesla's going to be

37:36

front and center and I think the moat is

37:38

going to be very large but I think

37:41

you're going to see two things

37:42

happening. One is a shift in emphasis on

37:45

Tesla as the only public company with

37:49

tremendous physical AI assets and then

37:51

you're going to see a bunch of startups

37:53

be be go public. Uh I think that's the

37:56

other though the the next wave that's

37:57

happening in physical AI.

38:00

>> Well Jeeoff thank you for uh sharing

38:02

your time for the audience. You are the

38:04

expert in physical assets. I mean and

38:06

it's that is Elon's playbook isn't it?

38:08

It's hardware is hard and he doesn't

38:11

just do it for Tesla which is bots and

38:13

cars and people can see that and that's

38:15

why things are taking forever and

38:16

operations too by the way. It's not just

38:18

hardware and operations uh efficiency.

38:21

He's doing it for Tesla but takes so

38:22

long to show up. He's doing it for

38:24

SpaceX too and actually and he's doing

38:27

it for AI as well. People are like just

38:30

don't realize it's the same playbook.

38:32

It's pretty obvious he said but no one

38:34

can really do it. That's the difference.

38:37

And then you've got the experience to

38:38

actually uh guide us here. Thank you

38:40

Jeff. Follow him on his ex account at

38:42

the Jeffoff Lots. Thanks everybody. I've

38:44

created a website that is the most

38:46

comprehensive resource for the Tesla

38:48

investor. Please check it out. Simply go

38:50

to my website at herbalm.com.

Interactive Summary

The video discusses recent major developments for Tesla and SpaceX, emphasizing the growing institutional interest and institutional shift towards 'physical AI'. Key topics include Tesla's permit application for 5,000 robotaxis in Nevada as a sign of scale, the massive compute rental deals between SpaceX and tech giants like Google and Anthropic, and the significant increase in Tesla stock holdings by major institutional investors.

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