Six months ago on this channel, Winston

here warned you that a wave of trillion

dollar IPOs would mark the top of the

market. And this week, Ray Dalio,

literally the most successful hedge fund

manager in history, went on Bloomberg

and he said the exact same thing.

Maybe he watches the channel.

>> [laughter]

>> Well, maybe he watches Winston. He's

saying the AI bubble is about to burst.

SpaceX is listing in a week's time at

1.7 trillion dollars. Anthropic just

filed another trillion dollar IPO, and

it means that 200 billion dollars

of Wall Street money needs to go into

these IPOs. And what's it going to find

it somewhere? And the question nobody is

asking is

what are they going to sell to buy

SpaceX?

We just said Broadcom, one of the

biggest AI stocks on the planet that

just crashed 12% in a single night

on very good earnings. And I'm going to

show you why that wasn't an accident. It

was literally the first domino. And just

when you thought the bubble was the only

risk out there, inflation data just came

in hot. Literally hotter than anybody

expected. And Goldman Sachs, you know,

the bankers with the golden heart,

they're modeling now oil at 150 dollars

for this year. If that happens, the Fed

can't save you. Rates are not going to

go down. And by the end of this video,

you're going to understand exactly what

Ray Dalio sees that most investors

don't. Where the 200 billion dollars are

coming from and the precise sequence of

events that tells you when this party

ends. So you can position yourself on

the right side of what's coming. My name

is Felix Prehm, an ex-investment banker.

This is Winston here, who's the brains

behind it all. And

we've also founded Goat Academy where

over the last 6 years our retired Wall

Street mentors have taught 25,000

students, which is super super fun. And

if you watched my video back in January,

you already know I've been tracking this

exact setup for months. So, I'm going to

connect three things for you Dalio's

bubble warning, the IPO frenzy, the

Broadcom crash, and yes, also inflation.

And when you see how all of those four

things, isn't it? Yes. Four things

connect, everything clicks into place

for you. So, this isn't a doom and gloom

video. This is an opportunity video

because there is massive opportunity

when that much money moves around. But

this video is going to cover a lot of

ground. So, I'm going to look at some

macro, IPO, the whole thing.

And that will be a lot of information to

absorb in, you know, 20 minutes. So, I

put together a full research report.

Well, Winston obviously has. I just take

credit for it. And you can download that

completely for free at felixfriends.org/

bubble.

>> [laughter]

>> Uh link's in the description. Not to

worry you or anything. No, no, no.

Winston is pretty relaxed about this.

So, let's start with

So, let's start with good old Ray.

Because my buddy Ray isn't some random

YouTuber with a theory. He's the founder

of the largest hedge fund in the world

called Bridgewater Associate. He's been

managing money through every bubble,

every crash, every crisis for 50 years.

And here's what he just said. All great

technology changes produce bubbles. And

then he said something that I think is

the single most important thing any

investor needs to understand right now.

He said,

"The pricking is the converting of

wealth into money."

And that sounds like an odd sentence,

but it's actually quite simple. Let me

break it down for you. The bubble

doesn't burst because the technology

fails. AI isn't going to go away. Dalio

was also very clear on that. AI is a

wonderful technology in many ways.

Except if it's stealing your job, but,

you know, it is it is useful.

Um

the bubble bursts because of liquidity.

When paper wealth needs to become cash.

He also said He also said his bubble

indicators are near levels last seen in

1929

and 2000.

Yeah, I don't know why I'm smiling

either. It's probably because I'm

getting to massage this lovely little

bear here. So, let me give you the

simplest way to understand this. Imagine

Sarah. Sarah has a lemonade stand and

it's worth a million dollars on paper.

Why? Because her neighbor said that he'd

pay that much for it. Wonderful, right?

Sarah is a millionaire on paper.

But

there is only $10,000 of cash in the

entire neighborhood.

So, if Sarah actually tries to sell her

lemonade stand, who's got the money to

buy it?

Well, nobody.

That's exactly what's happening with AI

companies right now. They've created

trillions of dollars in paper wealth.

Valuations are

sky-high, but paper wealth is not money.

You can't spend a valuation. You can't

pay your mortgage with a stock price.

The moment insiders need the cash,

whether for taxes or for debt payments

or the third yacht or the fourth

mistress,

they have to sell.

And if a lot of them need cash at the

same time,

well, guess what? There aren't enough

buyers and the price does what? Correct,

it collapses.

Not because the company is bad, because

there isn't enough actual money to

support the valuation. And Dalio says he

estimates the big tech companies,

Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, will

spend about $650 billion on on AI

infrastructure this year. $650 billion.

An insane amount of money going out of

the door. And that spending needs to

actually turn into

income from revenue. If it doesn't, you

got a $650 billion problem.

Now, let me connect this

to history, because we've seen this

movie before. In the year 2000, the

dot-com bubble burst. 86% of the IPOs

that year were losing money. Nobody

cared, right? It was like, "Oh,

whatever." I worked in a dot-com company

in 1999. Our

Our success metric by the investors was,

"How much money are you spending? The

more, the better." Yeah. Now, the

internet was real. It changed

everything. Um but they did say at the

time everything was different. And this

time was different. They're saying that

again right now. What happened to the

Nasdaq? Went down 78%.

78%. And some of your favorite companies

like pets.com, uh Winston,

uh eToys, all these guys were just gone,

right? They just disappeared. The tech

was real, but most of the companies

built on that tech went to zero anyway.

Now, we've changed ear here most

importantly, but there is a difference

in fact. I'm not trying to scare you

with the dot-com bubble because today

because today's AI leaders are actually

profitable, right? Your Nvidias, your

Microsofts, your Googles, they're real

businesses. So, this isn't a solvency

bubble like 2000 was. The companies

won't all go bankrupt. This is a

liquidity bubble.

And the companies will survive, but the

investors who buy at the top,

they're the ones who get burned. And

that's exactly what Dalio is warning

about.

Now, don't get me wrong. Every time this

much money moves around from one pot to

another, which is what's about to

happen, there is a massive opportunity

here. The people who understand how

these bubbles work, well, they don't

just sort of make it through them. They

actually potentially get rich from these

bubbles

or from the bursting. So, let me ask you

something. Just be honest with yourself

here.

Have you ever bought a huge winner

too late? You saw the stock, you knew it

was good, you watched it run up, and by

the time you actually bought it, the

easy money was gone. Or worse, maybe you

held a winner for too long,

and then you felt that knife in your

stomach as your money slowly bled into

Wall Street's pockets, right? And it

happened week after week. You get that

red that red and I rest, and this is

dreadful.

Now,

that isn't bad luck.

It is literally a gap between knowing

what's happening and knowing what to do

about it.

And closing that gap is the single most

important thing you can do as an

investor. And

Winston and I are going to do something

about that for you.

We're going to run a free live session.

One-time only, first-time only, never

again. And it's called the greatest

stock market playbook.

It's 2 hours live. You can get yourself

a free seat at greatestplaybook.com.

And I'm going to walk you through, well,

Winston will, obviously, the exact

playbook for navigating what's come.

The link's in the description. You can

grab yourself a free seat. Do it right

now.

Show up for yourself. There'll be no

replay. Don't ask for them.

Now, when I told you 6 months ago that

all the smartest founders in the world

are rushing to sell their companies at

the same time, you might have been

thinking, "Oh, this guy is a bit of an

extremist." Well, then guess what?

They're doing it right now.

We're looking at the biggest IPO in

history listing next week on the Nasdaq,

June 12th, targeting 1.7 trillion

dollars for SpaceX. Now, that's the

whole valuation. They're actually going

to raise 75

billion dollars. Still not exactly chump

change. It's trading at 60 times

revenue. Just throw that out there.

Anthropic, you know, the guys who make

Claude, um

they just filed the confidential

IPO filing with the SEC. They're going

to list in October this year

with a 965 billion valuation. Well,

let's make it a trillion, right? What's

a few billion between friends? Now,

Anthropic in February this year was

worth 380 billion.

>> [laughter]

>> So, they created 600 billion between

February and May. I mean, that's pretty

impressive, isn't it? And these two IPOs

alone have a problem because they are

going to suck up 200

billion dollars of money.

Now, you might be thinking this sounds

like a large number, but it's not the

sort of large number that Wall Street's

got lying about. Well, where did 200

billion come from? First of all,

it is more than all IPOs combined since

2022.

So, 2022.

It's kind of a lot, right? So, all the

IPOs in 2022 and 2023 and 2024 and 2025

and so forth in 2026.

All of them together are smaller than

these two.

Now, I told you in Jan that when all the

founders in the world, all the smartest

guys in the world all want to sell at

the same time,

it isn't a coincidence. They're reading

the same data you're looking at right

now. They want to sell at the top, and

they want you to be the buyer. So, think

about this question. Nobody talks about

this. This is the most important

question in the world right now. Where's

the money going to come from? Well,

there are only three places 200 billion

dollars can come from.

Wall Street sells existing positions,

existing stock.

They can borrow on margin,

or they redirect new capital, which is

your money.

But what it means is really is that

great Wall Street's going to sell

something to buy SpaceX. So, the

question is what?

And that answer is obvious when you

think about it. For the last 3 years,

the only way to play AI was through the

Magnificent For the last 3 years, the

only way to play AI was through the

Magnificent Seven. Microsoft, Nvidia,

Alphabet, Amazon, they were the AI proxy

trade. You couldn't buy OpenAI, so you

bought Microsoft, right? You couldn't

buy SpaceX, you bought defense stocks

and satellite companies, and some of us

made a lot of money with those, but now

you can buy the real thing. Why own

Nvidia as an AI proxy when you can own

Anthropic directly? Why own defense

stocks as a space proxy when you can own

SpaceX? So, capital rotates out of the

proxy

into the real thing. That's the rotation

I was talking about. And there's a

structural element that makes it worse.

When SpaceX enters the NASDAQ 100,

which they will on literally day 15,

it's a done deal. Index funds, you know,

your ETFs, your QQQ, and all that stuff.

They have to buy SpaceX.

So, they need to sell other stocks. It

is mandatory structural selling pressure

on every other stock in the index. And I

think we just saw the first sign of

this. This week, Broadcom reported

earnings. Revenue was up 48% over the

year.

Semiconductor revenue doubled. Earnings

per share beat expectations,

and the stock crashes 12% in a day.

So, record revenue, beat all estimates,

AI revenue doubled, and the stock still

crashed 12% in one night. Why?

Because Broadcom had already rallied

40% up this year.

So,

the market had gone up before this. The

market had priced in perfection. I mean,

the company guided very strongly.

Investors took profits, which is what

investors do, at least the Wall Street

ones. I'm not sure about you.

It is a textbook late cycle behavior.

Buy the rumor, sell the news is sort of

a popular way of describing it. But the

part that really caught my attention was

this.

On the earnings call,

but here's the part that really caught

my attention. On the earnings call,

Broadcom CEO named their six core AI

customers: Google, Meta,

and then Anthropic, OpenAI. Two of the

six biggest customers are companies that

are about to IPO. And

I get all my earnings data by the way.

We have a In the Winston app, there's an

earnings flash when big important

earnings happen and we tell you what

happened. We give you the key questions

here, the from analysts and then from

the

management, the replies, and as well as

our take on the whole thing. So,

earnings were actually very, very good.

And I mean, bear in mind, this is a

stock that Donald Trump has an 8.6

million stake in, right? This is like

you think in the weird world that we

live in, it'd be looking pretty sweet.

And I'll give you guys, if you want to

play with this and check it out, a um

3-month access to the Winston app as

well to give you guys some extra value

here. Um

But And there's a link down below in the

description, but let's connect the dots.

The money is already flowing towards the

new shiny thing. And away from the

companies that used to be the only way

to play Ion, AI.

If a stock can report record revenue,

right?

Record revenue, massive cash flow. To

us, this company got better. We moved it

from a 74 to a 76 score, but it crashed

12% in a day.

It tells you the market is no longer

rewarding good news. It's looking for

reasons to sell. And historically, that

is one of the most reliable signals of a

late cycle market. So, now you see the

picture, right? You got Dalio's warning

about

liquidity. There's not enough money

about. 200 billion in IPOs are about to

drain that market. Broadcom crashes on

record earnings because people are like,

"Well, that was great. Let's collect our

profits so we can buy SpaceX next week."

But don't get me wrong, there was a

massive opportunity here. Every time

this much money moves, some people make

fortunes.

But they're made by the people who have

a plan, not by the people who have FOMO.

So, be honest with yourself.

Have you bought a huge winner too late?

Have you held a winner for too long and

felt that, you know,

pain in your stomach, right? Your money

bled into Wall Street's pockets because

actually finding the good companies

isn't the hard part. I just showed you

the setup. The hard part is the

playbook, the entry, the exit, the

position sizing, the discipline

to make sure you don't have 30, 40, 50%

drops. And that's what

I'm going to cover for you on Saturday.

Free session, 2 hours live training. Go

to greatestplaybook.com, grab yourself a

ticket, show up for yourself so you

learn the skills before this tsunami

hits the market. Now, everything I've

told you so far assumes, and my mentor

used to say assumptions are the

And my mentor used Everything I just

told you so far assumes, and my mentor

used to say, "Felix, assumptions are the

mother of all f-ups." He was less polite

than me.

It assumes that the Fed keeps printing

money, that the liquidity keeps flowing,

that the safety net stays in place, but

what if it doesn't?

Because something has happened in the

sort of economic world that changes

everything. Jobs data came in better

than expected. And you might think,

"Well, that's a good thing, isn't it?

Economy's strong. Woohoo!"

No.

>> [laughter]

>> Factory orders also came in stronger.

But do you see the stock market is not a

reflection of good news for

in the real world. The stock market has

very little to do with the real world.

Well, the stock market sees a problem.

Why?

Because a hot economy, so lots of growth

lots of jobs,

create

more inflation. People have more money,

people going to ask for higher wages,

and so on.

And the Fed

can't

cut rates when you have a lot of

inflation.

They have less room to print money, less

room to keep the market pumped. And this

is what Wall Street calls good news is

bad news. Sounds kind of schizophrenic,

but welcome to the wonderful world of

finance. It just means the Fed's going

to keep a bit of a bit of a foot on the

brake. That's the opposite of what we

need right now.

And on top of that, I mentioned this

briefly at the top, there's oil. Goldman

and Sachs, you know, the bankers with a

the kitten orphanage and the and the

bunny rabbit sanctuary, those guys,

they just said oil is going to hit $150

or $160 a barrel this year. Why? Because

the Strait of Hormuz, you know, that

lovely narrow waterway that we all talk

so much about.

Nobody knew where the heck that was,

right? It was a lovely world and nobody

knew where that was.

Um we track it on here, you can see

what's going on. Also again in the

Winston up, you can even see

the actual ships.

And I can tell you that is not a

I can tell you that is not a lot of

ships passing it. You want to see the

vessels not piled up here

and on the other side, you want them

going through. But you know what? No

one's freaking going through cuz no

one's suicidal. 20% of the world's oil

goes through.

And after the conflict with Iran, cuz if

you called it a war, you'd have to ask

Congress, oil doesn't flow anymore.

And if oil does hit $150, which is

hopefully not going to happen, but it

could, the Fed can't cut rates. You're

going to have high inflation. They might

even have to hike rates. Now, can we

make money out of it? Yeah, I mean I've

I've I've been in an oil stock for ages,

for example. I'll show you the one.

Again, I'm not telling you should run

out and buy it, but I want to illustrate

to you, not that I'm smarter, I just

want to illustrate to you that once you

know the rules, you know that there is

always an opportunity. Been in this one

here since

about about here, September. Why? I

didn't know anything about the war in

September, there wasn't one, but I saw

that the money was flowing in. We're up

61% on that investment, which is pretty

sweet, right? Um so, high oil prices for

me are going to make me money, but for

most people rising oil is a tax on

everything.

On every business and every consumer on

the planet, and it can make or break the

whole setup. Every single major crash

we've had was preceded by an oil price

spike. Yeah, it's true. Go look at Look

at 2008. Look at 2000. Look at every

single crash we had. It always oil went

up before it. How do I know that? One of

my mentors told me.

Let me tell you called Elliot. He's been

in the commodity markets for you know,

20 years.

And

so in January I gave you a three-step

playbook, right?

So let me update that with what we have

right now. Stage one I said economic

weakness could force the Fed to start

printing money again. Well, check on

that one.

The Fed started something they call

reserve management purchases. It's just

money printing, 40 billion a month.

Almost 500 billion a year that is.

Why did they do that? Because the banks

were running running out of money. So

they bailed out the banks quietly. The

second stage was I said money would

flood into assets. Stock prices would

rally, valuations would go to extremes,

and I said when that happens the

founders would rush to IPO at the top.

That's exactly where we are right now.

The market's been rallying. Broadcom was

up like 40% before it crashed. SpaceX

IPOing. Anthr- Anthropic coming up. Oh,

somebody said Anthrax coming up.

Anthropic coming up. Now stage three,

this is what's coming next.

And the timeline is now much more

specific than it was in January. SpaceX

SpaceX lists on June 12th. We know that.

For 6 months after the IPO insiders and

early investors they're locked up. They

can't sell.

Now, they're going to do some hedging,

which could depress this price a bit,

but they can't sell. And even then they

might not sell. I guess they might

borrow against it, but still there'll be

some selling. So something the selling

pressure will kick in in December 2026.

Anthropic is targeting their October

IPO. That lockup would expire in about

April 2027.

And what happens in between October and

and and December? You get midterms.

Those lovely elections Americans hold

for them for fun, right? Now, this

second year of the presidential cycle

has historically been not great for the

market. 90% accurate since 1933.

Past performance isn't a prediction of

the future and I've got a crystal ball

and I'm not a financial advisor and all

that, but the danger zone isn't

tomorrow. The danger zone is the window

from late 2026

to early 2027. The lockups expires, the

insiders can sell, the midterms create

uncertainty, and the market figures out

which AI companies actually make money

and which ones are just hype because

we're going to start getting their their

earnings reports. So, my January thesis

was a forecast.

Confirmed. Dalio's validated the bubble

thesis. Broadcom is showing us we're in

a late signal, late cycle signal rather.

SpaceX has filed. The IPOs are coming.

But there are two things that haven't

changed

that I didn't anticipate. First,

inflation. The macro data, the economy

is running hotter. If inflation

re-accelerates,

which it looks like it will, the Fed

loses its ability to print as much

money.

It removes the safety net. So, I assumed

the Fed would keep printing. I assumed

interest rates would come down, but I

didn't foresee

the second risk, oil.

I didn't think

the El Presidente would start another

war, but he did.

And if this escalates or this continues,

then you get an oil shock and that

breaks a lot of our thesis. So, the

playbook always has to account for two

scenarios. Scenario one, the classic

setup.

Market rallies into the IPOs, corrects

after the lockups. And and the quality

stocks get cheaper, which creates a

beautiful opportunity for us if you know

what to look for.

And then scenario two where we have

inflation and oil breaking this setup

earlier. The Fed not stepping us The Fed

not stepping in to rescue us, and the

correction becomes deeper and faster

than we would like. So, what am I doing?

First of all, I'm going to give you the

full playbook on Saturday. The full

rules, how to think about it. Not just

for this setup, but for all future

setups. Cuz once you understand the

patterns, you can make much better

decisions the way Wall Street does. We

follow the money, essentially. But, I'm

going to tell you what I'm doing.

Doesn't mean you should do it. I'm not a

financial advisor. I'm just sharing with

you what I'm doing. The step number one

is I don't buy IPOs. I never do. There

are like 5,000 stocks out there in the

United States. Globally, there are a

heck of a lot more. If I click on all

markets in the Winston app, how many

stocks do we cover? 9 and 1/2 thousand.

Now, that's only primary listings. So,

there are 9 and 1/2 thousand stocks out

there that I could buy who have all the

audited returns, proven management, a

track record, the market understands it.

So, why would one brand new stock that

I've never been able to analyze deserve

more of my attention than those 5,000?

Always ask yourself. It is FOMO that

drives people into IPOs. And also, ask

yourself, why are the smartest people in

the world

honoring you by letting you be their

exit liquidity?

Why have the founders and the early

investors, the people with the most

information, decided that right now is

the perfect time to sell to you? Right?

And number two, I stay invested.

But, I have exit management on every

single item I have. I have a stop setup

on every single position, every single

stock that I have. I manage my position

sizes.

And I move around with wherever the

money is flowing. From this sector to

that sector to this sector. I don't care

what makes me money. You know, whether

it's an oil services stock that's up,

you know, 70% or one of the things I

bought last week, I mentioned it to you

guys, was this one here. And I don't

know if that's going to be a cropper or

brilliant. It's up 12% in, you know,

about a week, a little bit less than a

week. I bought a little bit later than

that. And I don't care whether this is

the most brilliant company in the world.

What I care about is whether the Wall

Street money is buying it. Cuz it's

much, much easier, in my humble opinion,

for things to go up when lots of money

is buying it and not just me who's got

some sort of affliction, sorry,

conviction about it.

But for those of you who are not going

to show up for themselves on Saturday

because you're not that serious about

acquiring the skills to manage your

money better, let me give you a couple

of signals so at least you've got

a bit of a bit of a life vest around

you.

Signals I look for, when the ARK ETFs

start rolling over, as in going down,

that is bad. When you get good earnings

and they get sold, that is bad. And when

your barber talks to you about

a stock or an IPO, it is really, really

Now, my barber is 83 years old, so it is

particularly bad when he starts talking

to me about specific stocks. Now, having

said all of that and having scared the

bejesus out of you, the opportunity is

the correction. I love a good

correction. Now, I realize that this

bad for most people because they haven't

got the skills to deal with it. And I

genuinely think about that every single

day, which is what I why I do what I do

here, to educate more people cuz I think

ultimately we're going to have a much

better world if we do this financially

education. Let me know if you agree with

that. Put an agree in the comments down

below. But in a market corrects, quality

stocks get cheaper. So, you can buy high

quality stocks on sale rather than at

all time highs. And that is a wonderful

thing. So, the crash is never the enemy,

but you need to know what to do. You

need to know what to look for. You need

to have a system. You need to have a

structure. You need to have some money.

So, come and learn with us the greatest

stock market playbook. First and likely

last time we're going to run this live

this Saturday. We're at 2 hours. It

works if you're on a European or a North

American time zone or South American

time zone or anywhere else in between.

Go to greatestplaybook.com. Grab

yourself a seat. Doesn't matter how much

money you've got. This is about skills.

Anybody can learn skills.

And if you got some value out of this,

share it with a friend. If you think

some your friends might get some value

out of the free live session, share the

link with them as well. And

I wish you

And I wish you

improving skills. All the best. A few

weeks ago on this channel, Winston here

showed you four small stocks before

anybody was really paying attention. One

was Redwire, which this one, check it

out, 163% up.