The SpaceX IPO May Be Much Bigger Than Expected
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When SpaceX goes public this Friday,
June 12th, it might very well go down in
history as the greatest ever. Here are
four reasons why. First, this is shaping
up to be the largest IPO in history.
SpaceX has officially launched its road
show, targeting roughly 74.4 billion in
proceeds at $135 per share, implying a
valuation around $1.75 trillion. That's
not just bigger than most IPOs, it's an
entirely different league. Second,
demand appears extraordinary. JP Morgan
CEO Jaime Diamond is personally helping
promote the IPO to wealthy clients. This
despite his long and complicated history
with Elon Musk. At the same time, SpaceX
is reportedly pushing banks for some of
the lowest underwriting fees ever seen
for a mega IPO, reflecting just how much
leverage the company has. Third, unlike
most IPOs, SpaceX isn't raising money to
survive. It's raising money to
accelerate. The filing shows proceeds
will be used to expand AI compute
infrastructure, launch capacity,
satellite constellations, and future
growth initiatives. In other words,
investors aren't funding a company
trying to find product market fit.
They're funding a company trying to
scale what may already be the
infrastructure backbone of the future.
And finally, the growth engines are
getting bigger, not smaller. Star Mobile
is already connecting millions of users
with next generation satellites
targeting 5G speeds from space and
dramatically higher capacity. Meanwhile,
Terapab just received major tax
incentives for what could become a $55
billion chip manufacturing project,
potentially linking SpaceX, XAI, and
Tesla into a vertically integrated AI
ecosystem. The question isn't whether
SpaceX is going public. to questions
whether investors fully understand what
they're actually buying, a rocket
company or the infrastructure layer for
AI, connectivity, compute and the future
economy. Got Larry Goldberg here today.
He is a serial entrepreneur and has been
an active venture capital investor for
the last decade. Check out his website
lumisenti.com.
Welcome Larry.
>> Great to be here on this particularly
apicious day.
Today is going to be Monday. Uh and uh
the actual SpaceX IPO will be Friday
very soon. Retail investors can actually
participate. So if you are interested uh
contact your broker, there's select
brokers. We'll we'll go through a lot of
that today. But uh the topic today is is
this is just it's going going bonkers
this whole SpaceX thing. I mean it's
it's gone a maybe too far, maybe too um
you know overly excited by folks. SpaceX
dropped this uh video. I'll play that.
And they're trying to position
themselves first as the only company
building the infrastructure of the
future across space, connectivity, and
AI. Let's watch this video.
Heat. Heat.
Heat.
Heat.
In order to
understand
the nature of the universe and all these
fundamental questions, we must expand
the scope and scale of consciousness.
Honestly, I I I don't know what to take
of this. It's very exciting. Maybe too
much of a frenzy, Larry. I don't know. I
would not recommend to I'm not saying to
everybody buy SpaceX or not buy SpaceX.
It's just it's getting too much of a
frenzy. And the question is, is it over?
Is it kind of like over too too much or
is it just right? What do you What's
your take on this?
>> You know, take it all with a pinch of
salt. I mean, I'm I've seen this kind of
thing before,
but it's fair to say that this is the
most unique
company. You know, you could think back
in moments in history.
Um
you think back to the launching of the
great colonizing companies
uh setting forth from Europe. You can
think of you can think about the Chinese
you know empire expanding
with the use of gunpowder and so on.
This is a moment in history and uh so
people get pretty excited to be
witnessing it and seeing it. So
I think I think the excitement is
warranted. I think people must be very
cautious about getting over their skis.
I think there's enough skepticism to
keep
to keep that
excitement somewhat tempered tempted.
Um so but it's it's fun to watch. I tell
you from my perspective it's fun fun to
watch. Um,
>> yeah,
>> you've been waiting for this for a long
time. I'm sure Elon has been waiting for
this a long time. We'll talk about his
employees have been waiting for this for
a long time. It's not only happening,
but it's happening at the kind of the
right time in history with the need as
they position it as a infrastructure
layer for AI, not it's not about space
per se, not about rockets. Um they
SpaceX also after they published that
video they followed up with this like
they felt it was important enough to
point out that retail investors will be
able to participate at the same prices
as the big institutions expected SPCX
which is the stock trading symbol that
will go live on June 12th price of $135
per share. Again another thing that
they've done that's just unprecedented.
They don't give a range. They're giving
you a price and that's the same price
that the the big boys are are buying it
at. Um so they have now officially
announced that the actual initial public
offering will be 555
million shares class A and it will be a
uh uh what $135 per share. So that would
raise it to 7 $75 billion would be
raised and that would be $7.5 trillion
would be the sorry
>> uh one what am I saying?
>> They will raise actually the total of
$75 billion.
>> Yeah. At $1.75 trillion. Sorry I'm
getting my my billies and trillies. So
the market cap will be $ 1.75 trillion.
Okay. Uh which is good. Remember the
some people were thinking it was going
to be two trillion. Now we don't know
what it'll end up the end of the day but
that is what this is for. Uh so this is
the actual data and then um or 8 85.7 so
they have the ability to even sell more
shares if it's overs subscribed I guess
right is that the way that works.
>> Yeah. So the underwriters can purchase
additional shares
um under the terms of the agreement uh
which if they do would raise the total
to 85.7 and um so that would be if the
demand is you I think if the demand is
very high they may do that. One of the
objectives is not to is things shouldn't
get out of hand too far. I mean, I've
heard people being very concerned about
the fact that retail may
over bid because of excitement. Um, not
understanding that,
you know, there isn't there isn't a a
sufficient supply
and that if they buy and send the prices
high, there's nobody on the other side
to sell it to.
And and so the you know
we're in uncharted territory, absolutely
uncharted territory. We we've not seen
this level of supply, this volume, this
this value of supply before. We haven't
seen potentially this level of demand
before. The question is
how does the how do the market makers
manage
the demand supply curve
you know on on the day which is Friday
which is a very unusual day by the way
for an IPO to go. I think only one in
10, one in 20 IPOs in the past have gone
on a Friday.
Mainly because
what happens in a in an IPO is you get
this demand and then towards the end of
the day you get it tapering off and
falling off. And you don't want to enter
a weekend, you know, way below the what
was the peak of demand because you get a
sense, oh, it's falling. Whereas if you
do like on Tuesday or Wednesday, you get
that by Friday, you get the the ups and
downs, leveling out.
>> So it's been usual I've done three IPOs
in my I've taken three companies public
in my time, not in the United States,
but in South Africa. and each time we
went on a Tuesday.
>> There's a lot of things about this IPO
that's so unusual and that's why it is
historic. Um, just to be transparent,
uh, Larry, you are an investor in
SpaceX. Um, I am not yet
>> and I have not decided if I'm going to
participate. I'm getting myself ready.
But um that's why I'm kind of like
looking at all this frenzy and
>> I'll tell you for what it's worth, I uh
went ahead and made a bid for shares
>> just like any retail shareholder. Yeah,
like any retail shareholder. I
>> Yeah,
>> made a bid for shares because I really
want to see what it looks like um in in
in my Charles Schwab account. So, I've
got a lot of accounts with Charles
Schwab. Uh, my family offices with
Charles Schwab. So, I'm not sure whether
they'll treat me as a retail shareholder
or not. But anyway, I went to the I went
there and made a bid for what it's
>> um and every single institutional, you
know, wants to be part of this. You got
Goldman Sachs who's actually leading it
now, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America,
Cityroup, JP Morgan, Barclays,
everybody. You name, you see the list
here. They all want a piece of this.
It's a huge list. And and by the way,
the ETF list of the number of ETFs
who've included SpaceX is unprecedented.
That list is massively long. And it's
rare that they actually have even
announced it prior to the IPO. It's
crazy. Uh Goldman Sachs, honestly, it's
weird that he chose Goldman Sachs. And
then of course JP Morgan even even Jaime
Diamond there has a history there
between the two of them. They weren't
partners for a long time. They sued each
other. But Jamie Diamond himself of JP
Morgan is getting personally involved in
the hype around SpaceX going public.
He's teaming up with SpaceX management.
He's going to actually meet with Gwyn
Shotwell and CFO Brett Johnson and
they're going to do uh you know host a
live Q&A this Thursday. It's norm. While
it's normal for big banks to pitch a
company to investors before it hits the
stock market, the sheer scale of the JP
Morgan campaign is unprecedented. It
highlights the absolute frenzy of
investors demand for what could become
one of the biggest stock market debuts
in history. What makes JP Morgan's
aggressive backing so surprising, said
Jamie. Jaime and Elon used to be on
terrible terms. In 2021, JP Morgan sued
Tesla over a messy dispute involving
stock options after Mus threatened to
take Tesla private. Tesla immediately
counters sued. two giants locked horns
for years. They finally buried the
hatchets and dropped the lawsuits in
November 2024. And then a few months
later, Jaime joked publicly that he and
Musk had hugged and made up, promising
that JP Morgan would support Musk and
his business empire going forward. I
mean, even your past enemies are now
want to be part of this IPO. Uh what's
any thoughts on this?
>> I will I will tell you that when you sit
in the conference room in Jamie
Diamond's office, it's very very very
impressive.
>> So I think even Elon would be somewhat
impressed by it. It's a pretty amazing
organization. JP Morgan, uh I I I've sat
there and you know been intimidated,
but I'm not Elon's height. And I don't
have his, you know, he's I don't know
what it is, but he has this personality
that is so large that it can fill any
space. So I can see he and Jamie Diamond
getting on very well indeed. And I'm
very pleased that they made it because I
have high a lot of money involved. Yeah.
>> And as leverage. Yeah.
>> Yeah. And the man is I think Jamie
Diamond is a gym is one of the great
gems of our um financial community.
>> He's absolutely great. Okay, so I do
want them to partner. Uh SpaceX has
tremendous leverage. Uh this is again
another thing that they did that just
it's great for retail, great just
amazing that they were able to pull this
off. But um a fee cut from IPO bankers.
The IPO bankers don't make as much money
targeting 500 million windfall. Uh so
it's pushing banks for one of the lowest
IPO fee rates ever. The company's
negotiating to pay less than 75% on its
plan 75 billion IPO though banks could
still collect roughly 500 million fees.
Goldman and Morgan Stanley are
reportedly set to take the largest share
of the fee pool. 21 other brokers
involved. This is far below the typical
IPO underwriting fee range of 4% to 7%.
This is like they're paying poultry
amounts. It is so nice to see the
strength that SpaceX has and uh this is
how much this is how much they raised in
the past um Facebook, Alibaba and others
of other mega IPOs each low versus other
mega.
>> Mhm.
>> Well, I mean 75% fee is not
unprecedented. GM GM did it on a $15
billion raise. I mean in real terms
2010$15 billion is probably closer to 40
billion today. So it's not that unpre un
you know precedented.
Um I don't remember their Ramco but I
know that they also squeezed for a very
very low fee. Um but listen, the banks
are going to do very well and um they're
certainly not crying about this level of
fee because the dollars, you will watch
their quarterlys will look pretty good
at the end of the quarter. As long as
things go well, if things don't go well,
then everybody could take a bath here.
But I think things are looking pretty
good for the moment. I hope nobody
starts a war tonight.
>> Exactly. Or this week. Okay. So uh one
of the things that uh again news is
coming out about you know capabilities
and potential revenue for uh SpaceX
Starlink mobile they published this
information this news 650 satellites in
low earth orbit today the world's
largest and only satellite to mobile
constellation is powering data voice
video and messaging across six
continents and will be accessible to
more than 1.7 billion people the nextG
satellites will even expand on this even
more and then Telra the largest telecom
company in Australia announced that over
200,000 of its customers connect to
Sonic Mobile per day. So, it's already a
real deal. It's no longer it's not just
this thing. Uh over 2.7 million
customers have connected at least once
within the last year. What stands out to
us the most is not the numbers, but what
they represent. A message home from a
remote road, a quick check-in during a
trip away, or peace of mind in places
beyond the range of our mobile network.
The nextG V2 startic mobile satellites
start launching in 2027 and they will
improve capacity. 5G speeds from space
with 100 times the data density of the
current V1 up to 150 megabytes. Uh will
seamlessly enable streaming, internet
browsing, high-speed apps, thousands of
spatial beams and high bandwidth
capability enabling 20 times the
throughput capability compared to first.
So that's coming in 2027. So this I
guess they're just trying to prove that
this is a real business already, right?
>> Yeah. And I you know it's interesting
that Telstra are an early partner of uh
Tesla of SpaceXes. I will just point out
that the chair person of Tesla
was the chief financial officer of
Telra.
>> So Rob Robbie Denhelms has this very
close connection with Telra. Just I see.
>> Thought I'd mention that.
>> Oh, I didn't know this. Okay. I guess
that's why there's a relationship.
>> Yeah.
>> People don't understand, you know, just
how experienced she is. I mean, she
that's a big company. It was the
largest, you know, it's the largest,
you know, operator in Australia,
huge operation. And, you know, she was
the CFO for many years. Then this uh
SpaceX uh IPO is the largest in history
so far. We'll see if it get anybody else
gets bigger than that. But uh boy,
they're going to make a lot of people
rich. SpaceX millionaires. 4,000 of them
will be um a millionaire. 400 will be
100 millionaires.
>> Wow.
>> Every employee who joined before the
first successful launch made unless they
sold early more than 100 million. SpaceX
list June 12th. Work backwards from the
cap table. This is how they calculated
the first 500 to join in 2002 to 2008.
they joined at $550 million company. If
they held it to now, right? Um they
maybe 150 to 250 still left holding
probably they would make that you know
$100 million each. Um 2008 SpaceX has
first successful launch. Uh and then
2010 to 16 that's companies now valued
at 10 billion and then there is a senior
grant for 100 to 200 people. Seuite
Shotwell Johnson passed one billion each
those two a layer of SVPs 100 clears 100
million but the most important thing is
the the employees um many of these guys
you know stuck to it and now they're
they're rich and then of course we've
learning now that Elon really favored
the his employees and he's actually even
carved out 5%
to be able to offer to friends family
and executives and others and and they
don't have a lock up period. So this is
something that he's really taking care
of good care of his employees.
>> Yeah. I mean, you know, working for
SpaceX
is very very demanding, extraordinarily
demanding. We read in several of the
books written, deeply researched books
written um just how tough it is on the
family and on the employee and just the
kind of sacrifices people have to make.
So every penny that's coming to them
appears to be very deserved indeed. And
so I I couldn't be more pleased for them
more than anything else in this whole
project. I couldn't be more pleased for
the employees. I really, you know, I
feel for them because I I watch these
launches in the middle of the night,
2:00 in the morning, and these guys have
been working for 3 hours getting four
hours, 5 hours getting this thing up and
running, and you know, they work through
at 2:00 and then they have to wait up
after we sign off because this launch
has been successful. an hour, two hours,
three hours into the orbit to make sure
the satellites in good health. These
guys really pull enormous amounts of
hours. They work their butts off. So,
they deserve every single penny coming
to them. One of the uh big controversies
it's already rearing its head now is
that Elon will become a trillionaire uh
with this IPO. Now, of course, these are
stock options and it's not cash. people
need to remember that and he deserves
it. He, you know, he almost went
bankrupt. Uh they have three flights uh
three the very first three rockets
failed. You see all those pictures with
the failed rockets. Uh it took him 20
years, right, to get to this point. Uh
but that is going to be the narrative
that he is going to be the richest guy
on earth and is he paying taxes all
those kind of things. Um do you have
thoughts on this?
>> Yeah, I do. I mean, I I think that if
anybody deserves to be in that
situation, he definitely deserves to be
in that situation. We talk about long
hours. Nobody nobody spends the hours in
their company that he does. Listen, I've
been an entrepreneur.
I've been up, I've been down, I've
worked very hard throughout my life. I,
you know, failed multiple times.
I I've been seen it all. and I didn't go
through a tenth
in my long career that he's been through
in a much shorter career. I I don't know
how he's survived, but he has survived.
And of course, what he's delivered in
terms of his employees, in terms of the
value he's brought to the United States,
I mean, he's probably made the single
biggest contribution to the US economy
of any living person today. There's no
doubt in my mind he has made the single
biggest contribution of any living
person in America in the United States
today. So yeah, does he deserve it?
Absolutely. Will he be criticized for
it? You bet. Will the criticism
mean anything to him? Not a damn thing.
And that's good.
>> Yeah. You did an incredible report where
you explained not only how much taxes
Elon has paid already, but all the uh
salaries he's given to employees. It's
just all the taxes they paid, the value
that they get, the
>> the taxes paid by every one of his
employees, the taxes paid by him, the
taxes paid by his company, the the the
amount of people he's employed, the
amount of uh infrastructure he's built,
the amount of money he's spent with
vendors in the United States, it's
staggering. You know that this man, this
single individual has generated 0.4% of
the gross domestic product of this
country. The greatest country on earth,
>> the largest the largest economy on earth
and the single individual, the single
individual has generated 04%. I mean it
is thousands of times more than the
average person. And it's gonna get even
crazier because uh robots uh AI data
centers all this we're talking about is
going to be you know some people are now
agreeing that it'll 10x the G US GDP 10x
it.
>> So
>> you know your point is so your point is
so strong when you think about what he's
going to deliver in the next 10 years
what this IPO will give rise to.
>> Yeah. I mean it, you know, it's one of
the ways we're going to get out of debt.
I mean,
>> yeah. At this point, no worries about
that anymore.
>> Yeah.
>> Okay. Uh in terms of uh speaking about,
you know, paying taxes and so forth.
>> Elon on this this yesterday was very uh
out there multiple posts uh making sure
people are aware of the scenario. So,
Terraab was approved to buy land in
Grimes County, Texas. And uh now it
still needs to go through public
hearings so they could push back and
say, "Hey, I don't want it in my
backyard." And there's other lots that
they they're considering, but this one
seems to be moving forward. And uh so,
you know, SpaceX received the approval
from Grimes Grimes County for huge tax
breaks for the company's terrify
project. The tax abatement would give
SpaceX a full exemption on property
taxes tied to the project. County
leaders have framed the terrify proposal
as potentially transformative moment for
Grimes County. The judge called it a
generational change. Grimes County
commissioners voted 4 to1 to grant the
company a tax increment in reinvestment
zone and tax breaks for the $55 billion
project east of College Station. Okay,
so this is just a render of what it
could become the the terra fab building
in that area. Elon replied saying
something that perhaps isn't clear is
that if this location works out, other
locations are still in the running.
SpaceX will still be paying at an annual
amount that increases tax revenue for
Grimes County by 25%. And will be by far
the biggest source of revenue for the
county. Taking into account taxes paid
by SpaceX employees and contractors,
Terapab will far exceed all revenue that
Grimes County currently earns. The
reason SpaceX asked for this, which is
standard practice for massive capital
investments, is because Terrafab will
have a large number of extremely
expensive machines for making chips.
property tax on those crazy money m
money machines would put us at a serious
competitive disadvantage relative to
other chip fabs in the world. And then
uh Elon or Sawyer repeated that taking
into account taxes paid by SpaceX
employees and contractors, Terra Fab
will far exceed all revenue the Grimes
County currently earns. Elon said by
far. And then this person said, "This
isn't a tax giveaway. It's a classic
case of smart long-term thinking. The
county gets a massive permanent uplift
in revenue from employees, contractors,
and broader economic flywheel. Terrified
will spin up while SpaceX avoids a
property tax trap that kills
competitiveness on hund00 million chip
machines. Grimes County just proved it
understands how real innovation
compounds. You don't tax the golden
goose before it even lays the eggs. This
is how generational infrastructure
actually gets built. Neon said, exactly.
Can you uh comment on that?
>> Not a lot to add. I mean, if you're
intell if you're half intelligent, you
understand the trade-off here. It's not
that they're not paying taxes, it's just
that they're going to avoid being taxed
on the value of the machinery and
equipment and building that they're
putting in there. In other words,
don't tax the the goose that lays the
golden egg. You know, t you know, by all
means tax all the eggs you sell. by all
means tax the employees for their
earnings and the and the houses and the
property that they move in. The county
will do great.
>> The county just Yeah. The county just
mustn't
>> tax the actual equipment that makes the
the the building and equipment that
makes the the the chips because this is
going to be very critical. You got to
understand that, you know, up until
2040, the cost of putting these chips
into space is going to render it more
expensive than groundbased
uh um AI factories, what you know what
we what we can consider AI factories. So
they have to save every penny they can
save. is going to be a very very
cost-sensitive operation to get those
you know those spacebased
processes to start equaling the cost of
groundbased processes. The
>> these are massive numbers we're talking
about uh people are going to make a lot
of money and he's going to share it with
employees but also counties,
governments, they're all going to get
in. They all want part of this.
Everybody thinks it's big.
>> The most important part of the the most
important part of this all is that it is
critical that the United States
gets these fabs up into space and gets
them economical
because right now we cannot compete with
China with their cost of electricity.
And so in this race to AI,
China has this builtin advantage
that they can't their citizens can't,
you know, protest against an an AI
factory being put into their
neighborhood as our people can.
>> I mean, this is uh global, right? So uh
TSMC Taiwan if China uh conquers Taiwan
for that reason they control AI the rest
of the world is in trouble. What do you
do? You this is world war.
It's going to be the largest world war
ever because you can't let you know uh
one country have complete control of AI.
So and what you need to do as Americans
is you need to create your own chips in
your own land and don't don't fight this
one. Uh Larry, what's your thoughts? Uh
what's your expectation for the day of
the IPO? Here's what Poly Market says.
These are the betting betting sites.
They're thinking that it's going to
close at $2.3 trillion. That's uh the
projections at this point.
>> You know, it's possible. I have I have
just learned not to try and project
this. I I I think that the value of the
shares are intrinsically sound at these
prices.
I would invest I would invest for the
long term. I have,
you know, quite a lot of u investment
already in SpaceX. I'm going to up it a
little bit. Not a lot. I'm I'm going to
up it a little bit. Um simply because I
want to participate in in this IPO.
Um every single I mean every single
IPO's had Elon's ever had before, which
is just one has been very good to me. I
want to be in this one as well.
>> Gotcha. It's historic. That's the That's
what we're covering today.
>> It is historic. Yeah.
>> Thank you so much, Larry. Appreciate
your uh comments today. Uh and uh follow
him on his website at lumicenti.com.
Follow him on his exac account at tesla.
Thanks everybody. I've created a website
that is the most comprehensive resource
for the Tesla investor. Please check it
out. Simply go to my website at
herdom.com.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video discusses the highly anticipated and historic SpaceX IPO scheduled for June 12th. It highlights several unique factors: the unprecedented size of the IPO with a valuation around $1.75 trillion, the massive demand from institutions and retail investors, and SpaceX's leverage in negotiating record-low underwriting fees. The discussion also covers the company's long-term vision to build infrastructure for AI and connectivity, the massive wealth creation for its long-time employees, and the strategic importance of projects like TerraFab in the context of global AI competition.
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