The SpaceX IPO is this Friday and both

Elon Musk and billionaire investor Ron

Baron are weighing in. We'll watch

several of these videos. Ron believes

SpaceX will become the largest, most

profitable company on the planet at some

point going to be worth 10, 20, or even

$30 trillion. And what's more, he says

people who work for SpaceX think he's

lowballing it. Elon Musk replied simply

saying, quote, "Ron is smart." Ron also

says you can't own enough of the

greatest idea you've ever had. That's

the way he feels about SpaceX. By some

estimates, the Baron Capital Group and

its various funds own around $15 billion

worth of SpaceX and he's already said he

plans to buy 1 billion more at IPO.

There are many pros and many cons to

buying an IPO and we'll discuss that

today. Ron laid out that Elon being a

key man for the investment is the

biggest concern. We'll hear his thought

process here. We'll also review Goldman

Sachs projections that SpaceX revenue

will grow 100 times by 2030, reaching

$322 billion. And Morgan Stanley sees

SpaceX revenue reaching 3.4 trillion by

2040. These numbers are absolutely wild

and it seems the frenzy has gotten out

of control. Are they all just pumping

right now? We'll ask that question to

Jeff Lutz. He's an ex supply chain sea

level executive for Motorola, Google,

and Lenovo. He's currently running his

own consulting firm serving mega cap

tech in supply chain design and

manufacturing. Welcome Jeeoff.

>> Hey, we're Yeah, these are some some big

numbers. Uh we'll go through it. I mean,

I think if you looked at the AI

uh the whole AI buildout, which is still

just getting started, I think people

would have scaunted those numbers too

maybe five years ago. So, anyway, we'll

go through this.

>> Yeah, it's a little bit uh too high, too

far. uh seems like it's it's a a little

bit um sketchy or you know curious why

they're saying it the days before the

IPO. So you just have to keep that in

mind. But still these are some real

players in the industry saying this. Uh

this is SpaceX going IPO on Friday.

Here's Ron Baron. Now, he's been proven

correctly for his Tesla uh forecasts and

uh he's a buy and hold kind of investor,

but he believes SpaceX will become the

largest most profitable company on the

earth. Let's uh let's listen to what he

says.

>> Company which is going to be valued

initially for less than $2 trillion I

think uh we think uh uh is going to be

worth 10 trillion, 20 trillion or $30

trillion. Uh people in the company

believe that I'm lowballing it but

that's what I think and we think that

this is going to become SpaceX will

become the largest most profitable

company on the planet. I was recently

then

>> okay that is him saying the people in

the company are saying we're lowballing

guess who's he saying he's referring to

Elon Musk uh Elon himself took that

video and forward it so he felt it was

important enough to take that clip and

forwarded himself as a post not

forwarded actually posted it maybe

largest in the sector of the galaxy not

just on the planet largest of the sector

of the galaxy so he's uh proving those

numbers kind of way out there Jeeoff

what do you think I mean yes at one

point people were laughing one trillion

and And now people are are seeing

companies worth four or 5 trillion, but

20 30 trillion is a little crazy out

there right now.

>> Well, I think the biggest mistake is

people take present- day GDPs and

economics and projected out 10 years is

if there's going to be no growth

anywhere else in the world. So, that's a

mistake. Watch when people do that. And

I think when you see uh estimates like

this, you'd want to understand how where

you how are you arriving at these

numbers. And I mean today you've got a

$5.5 trillion or so dollar Nvidia today.

So it's it's not inconceivable to that

Nvidia would actually be one of the

first 10 trillion dollar companies

possibly. And it it none none of this is

the 10 trillion number to me is not out

of this world. Remember Tesla what what

is SpaceX going to be? Is SpaceX going

to include Tesla? Is SpaceX going to

include other things? But we're building

this terraab out over the next 5 years.

That's part of it. And then you've got

te you have physical AI and you've got

uh super intelligence chatbot AI inside

of if if it's a combined company te

SpaceX and Tesla. Well then these

numbers aren't inconceivable at all. So

that would have been an interesting

question to Ron Baron. Is it is it 10 20

30 trillion on its own or is that also

combined

>> with Tesla? But I mean these numbers are

gigantic and nutty. I think you just

have to step back and look at it and say

what's inside of these companies and how

big is the moat and and what kind of

value is this for the world and for

consumers and for businesses and so

forth. And obviously the value of

interplanetary travel is high and

getting product into orbit is high.

There's a very small number of people

that can actually do it. And and then

you look at the value of compute,

terrestrial compute on Earth. That value

is high. We just saw the the Google and

anthropic deals with SpaceX. And it

looks like through hardware and through

mega is is manufacturing Elon is

creating moes all over the place. And

that is going to be the the toughest

thing to catch. That is going to be the

most difficult thing for these companies

to try and replicate and do. And they a

lot of companies will go bankrupt and

bust just trying to do it and they'll

just stop. Look what look at how many

companies try to do their own auto

companies try to do their own autonomy

pushes and then they stopped and now

they think Nvidia is going to do it all

for them and and they're actually caught

I think in a pretty big bind right now.

So I think I think when you step back

and look at the complexity and the

capability of SpaceX and what they're

doing, how few competitors that they

really have, it's not inconceivable that

there are going to be some very large

market cap numbers out there, but I I

don't know. It's hard to say like by

what date. I think and what is Ron

talking about 2040? Like what is what is

what is his time frame on this? Um

anyway, those are the things that come

to mind. time and then just competition

and moat. They seem to be all trending

in SpaceX's favor.

>> Well, we we'll do a deeper dive in

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley's

business plans and models, what they

say, which is, you know, right up there.

But, um, yeah, I think the way Elon

would answer that question is he says

that it's all about energy and if you

can get to the sun and harness the sun's

energy, which is like a, you know, a

million million times more energy than

what they're doing on Earth. If you can

harness that, energy is a proxy for

productivity. It's a proxy for economic

value. Uh it's econ it's a pro proxy for

intelligence because you just get free

energy and you can make as many data

centers and then you can create as

bigger AI and that will translate.

That's how he sees it I think. Um and

that and if he has that moat, no one

else can do it or very late decades away

from catching up. uh then SpaceX has

really just unmatched uh energy access.

Ron is smart. He says uh the other thing

he says is that you can't own enough. So

this is Ron proposing to his friends and

to others that he thinks is a good

investment

>> that if you uh have identified if you

have identified do not listen to other

people. If you have identified and you

have done the work on a business that

you think can grow tremendously,

you can't own enough of it. You can't

own enough of the greatest idea you've

ever had. That's the way I feel about

SpaceX, which is why I urge my friends

and executives of companies in which

we've invested uh to do a good thing for

them like they've done for us uh to

invest in SpaceX. And a lot of the

people who invested in SpaceX with us so

far uh uh are those my friends and

executives of companies and uh and

family and and I wouldn't be telling

them to do that at these prices if I

didn't think that making these kind of

investments is going to change their

lives which is what I believe. Jeeoff,

do you think uh two trillion if if

SpaceX goes IPO on Friday, two trillion,

1.75 trillion goes up to two something,

whatever. Is that that good? I mean,

>> well, I I think there's going to be huge

demand for it and it's also going to be

volatile because the it's because the

earnings are out over a distance over a

period of time.

>> Yeah, I I think there's going to be

there could be volatility with it. So,

we'll see. But I would say the flurry of

announcements and the flurry of things

that really immediately are impacting

the revenue line are pretty stunning.

And

uh who knows where where the end of who

knows how many deals are going to start

getting lined up again for for

space-based data centers for compute

uh for uh the government contracts that

have been coming in as well. By the way,

everybody thought that that SpaceX was

this big, you know, cronyism of from

with the governments. It was a very

small fraction of their contracts

actually like single digits that the

rest of it all uh is all private and are

private companies and partnerships and

and and deals. So anyway, we we'll see.

I mean, Ron is is

making he's making a statement that he's

basically sharing this with family and

friends. He thinks it's something that

they should be doing and setting up for

the future. I think the big question in

everybody's mind is this, you know, is

this the right starting point? Is the

1.75, the two trillion the right

starting point? Nobody has a crystal

ball. Could this thing be cut by, you

know, several percent uh through some

sort of market correction or of course

anything could happen to any stock or

company, but you just have to look at

over of of a longer trajectory and say,

"All right, is is are the things that

they're doing, do they have a lasting

effect and is the moat a lasting moat?"

And if that's the case, well, and and

and it all depends on your time horizon,

too. So to me, stock recommendations are

very have to be very personalized to the

person you're talking to because

everybody's coming at it from a

different perspective in terms of when

they need the capital and how much

they're willing to risk.

>> Yeah, that's a very sound advice. We

don't know what's going to happen. This

could be up and down. Very, very, very

volatile. in the future you just bank on

do you believe that there is a a moat

and then Elon Musk being a key man risk

is according to El to Ron Baron the

biggest risk um you know first this is

Elon saying Ron is awesome so he's

replying to those videos and then um Dr.

Jack pointed out that there is a

Freudian slip uh where actually both Ron

did it and so did Elon. Elon was

interviewed by JP Morgan and he said

Tesla data centers and it goes so

quickly unknown SpaceX data centers and

here it's the opposite uh and let's

listen to what he said

>> don't own enough and have to own more.

Uh and then you also have these indexes

where where passive investors uh have to

invest in those indexes uh whether they

like it or not. If they're going to

duplicate an index and you have a new

company coming into the index, they got

to invest in it. So you have demand

coming from investors who don't own any

and want it and and are large cap growth

investors. They have to own it. And then

in addition to that, you have people who

are going to be trying to duplicate an

index and they have to own it too. And

then you have people like us who say,

"Boy, I have never in my life seen a

business like this." And I haven't. Uh

then they they have to own it too. And

you have to own it for us. Um I I told

my son, you say, "Dad, dad, don't say

never, but I can't imagine that I'm ever

going to sell my stock in Tesla in

SpaceX

>> or Tesla

>> or Tesla.

I can't imagine. Or Tesla. Yeah. He

goes, "Or Tesla." So he was it affording

slip? I'll never sell my stock in Tesla

or SpaceX.

>> Yeah. I I I wouldn't read I wouldn't

read too much

>> uh into it. I would just go back to all

the other underlying facts of of the

alignment and the companies and and make

your own decision. I wouldn't read too

much into too much into that. You and I

are making slips all the time when we're

talking publicly as well in these

broadcasts. So, but anyway, I love that.

Yeah, I I think I think there's been

enough other statements about the uh the

combined value of these companies, but

again, you'd have to see what the if

there was a a merger proposal, what that

would look like um for SpaceX

shareholders and for Tesla shareholders

and understand each side of it. Is it a

good deal or not?

>> So, the biggest concern and risk would

be Elon being a key man risk and u he

was asked that question and here is his

answer

>> or tested

Great. Thanks, Ron. We're getting a lot

of questions on the potential merger of

SpaceX and Tesla. Do you think that's

realistic or pure speculation?

>> Um, well, I don't know more uh than

anyone else. uh no one there's been no

public announcements and I have uh you

know made assumptions that a lot of uh

Elon's businesses uh the interests

converge uh and if one person one

business makes a profit the other one uh

has an expenditure

uh so you're able to do uh things

without having to uh uh you know merge

but whatever so I believe that uh this

individual is the most consequential

industrialist

engineer physicist on the planet and uh

and he jokes whether he's from this

planet or not but I'll take his word

that he's from here and and I think that

uh that I am we are not activist

investors and if he thinks it's better

to be merged then we'll support him and

I'll explain why and we'll support him

and if he explains that it's better not

to emerge uh then we'll support him

whatever he wants to do it's his you

know he he's got more at risk than

anyone else and he's you know giving his

health and putting himself at risk

physical risk uh for for making all of

our lives better it's amazing person he

is I I often you know question I don't

understand exactly how uh I became

became friendly with him and uh and um

it just changed my life, changed our

lives and uh and and I don't think I

can't think, you know, of someone who I

admire more. One of my friends was

telling me when I said that on CNBC that

he's the most per person I admire the

most. Uh my friend said, "You know, you

should say that the person you admire

most is your wife." I said, "Okay." And

so Judy says, Judy says, "Well, if you

say that then I'll know it didn't come

from you."

>> Well, Ron speaking.

>> Yeah. So Elon is the such an incredible

part. He's spoke highly, but he is the

biggest keyman risk. What's your

thoughts on on that risk?

>> Yeah, that's clear that there is that

risk. I look at it in a couple different

ways. One is Elon does these master

plans. These are decadel long or more

visions for where he wants to take the

company and what he wants to build. And

so that's point one is that he does put

that out there. Point two is he hires

and retains people that are very much in

his likeness. If you look at the test

and of course there's turnover and every

like there's all these articles anytime

like the the program manager of a car

leaves like there's an article. It's

ridiculous. And there's turnover at

every single company that's ever been

made. But if you look at his direct

reporting staff at SpaceX and at Tesla,

there are very long tenur leaders in key

spots. We could, you know, name a bunch

of them now.

And and I do feel very good that the

company would be in very good hands even

if Elon were for for any reason not

there. I think they have a portfolio of

product a portfolio of things under

development and a portfolio of products

they're shipping that are have

tremendous value in the marketplace. It

would the stock and would the company

take a valuation hit? Of course it

would. But I can't think of a more

exciting portfolio and I in in in the

world besides the Tesla and the SpaceX

portfolio of products. I can't think of

one of a company that's working on more

uh more a more exciting portfolio and

Elon is not sitting down and coding and

doing the development across all this

portfolio. Is he hands-on? Is he

actively engaged? Absolutely. Is he

pushing the team through roadblocks and

things that would have otherwise blocked

the team and especially dealing with

other companies and suppliers and

governments and regulators? Yes. So

there is absolutely key man risk but

there's also a well articulated vision

and a well constructed portfolio of

projects that would drive the company

for many years out both companies.

>> Mhm. Yeah. The way I look at it is if

you look at Tesla right uh as every day

that goes by that he's there it's

amazing what he can do. So you've got

and he focuses on the future products

that have roadblocks and he clears them

out. So the good news is that roboaxi is

solved. He's moved on. It's now an

operational thing. Robots, we don't

know, but he did spend a lot of time on

version three and he's working out the

the manufacturing space uh production of

that. We don't know if that's complete

yet or not. And then uh Terraab, that's

still very early. Who knows if if

something happens to them that would I

would put that at risk and maybe never

happening. And then with SpaceX, he's

there for uh Starship now is pretty

close to reusable. I don't know if that

is, you know, him going away. Is that

going to stop that? I don't think that I

think that's a done deal. But then AI

data centers, he's just now focusing on

that at this point. And so if he can

figure that out, the more months go by,

I'll feel better that that is solved.

But right now, that is not. So that's

the way I look at it. There's certain

businesses that I feel like it's

regardless if he's gone, that thing is

solved. But the others, they still need

him. Um, let's take a look at what

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley their

numbers. Uh, Goldman Sachs, they think

that the revenue will grow 100 tox. So,

we're talking four years the revenue

will 4x. The bank's projections are at a

foundation of SpaceX 1.78 trillion IPO

valuation pitch. Here's what they're

telling the investors that the AI growth

model will grow from 3.2 billion in 2025

to 322 billion by 2030. So in four years

it'll be three times the size of current

Tesla. That's a 100 times increase in 5

years. XAI lost 6.4 billion 2025. Yeah,

but we now know that well if you combine

the Anthropic deal and the Google deal

that's no longer a loss anymore. XAI TAM

claims 26.5 trillion versus 2 trillion

for Starlink and space combined. It's

all based on XAI honestly uh data

centers and so forth. The SpaceX revenue

picture 474 billion by 2030. Starlink

will have 144 of that. Rocket will be

about 8.8 billion of that. And this is

there guys. Um uh the Grock models must

catch up and surpass Enthropic. Google

and OpenI coding, cyber security agents

and chatbots. XAI has been hamstrung by

IP of Heo pushing out all 10 co-founders

within 10 years but then he's been

renting it out. So the IPO mechanics,

they could raise 86 billion. Goldman

Sachs leads Morgan Stanley and everyone

else is involved. That's Goldman Sachs.

Before we get to Morgan Stanley,

thoughts on that one?

>> No, I mean these notes, I wish these

notes would have come out, you know,

several months ago. Um, you know, these

are the lead bookrunners for the IPO. So

you just have to keep all this in. I

mean, there's a reason that they want to

be the lead book runner. So they believe

in it. At the same time, they're getting

massive fees on the other end of it. So

just have to keep it's a business. You

have to keep all this in context and

everything in mind and and know that

these analysts could change their

opinion in 6 months or a year and would

it be the first time that they've done

that on an IPO? So just I would just

focus on the facts. I know we're kind of

going back and forth between revenue and

profitability. I don't know if XAI is

even with these deals if they're even

profitable. I hope I would hope that

they're profitable, but I don't know.

Maybe they're he's doing massive capex

investments for the next build out. So,

we'll we'll we'll have to see. But yeah,

it's fair to say that there's been

massive transformation at SpaceX driving

revenue. So, it's not a hard picture. It

is a difficult picture actually because

this is such a different kind of company

to go public. There's so many different

companies inside of this and the world

is just not famili the world is familiar

with AI companies going public and

hardware but not spacebased companies

going public. So, and the numbers are so

big it's sometimes it's difficult for

people to get their head around. But see

what Morgan Stanley says.

>> Well, yeah. Well, if you thought that

Goldman Sachs was crazy, look at Morgan

Stanley. They're saying that the revenue

for SpaceX will be 3.4 trillion by 2040.

So in 15 years it'll be 3.4 trillion per

year. That's crazy. So they are I mean

it's not crazy. It's just it's just

Yeah, it is crazy. We've never seen that

before. A revenue of 3.4 trillion in

2040 and just would be 2.7 trillion.

That's like tremendous profit. Research

analysts Goldman Sachs and Morgan

Stanley both project revenue could be

near 160 billion 2028.

That's two years from now. Now, I don't

know where they got that number, 160

billion, because I can see maybe a

hundred billion from uh space

terrestrial data center rental, but I

don't expect that you would have any

space-based data centers until well past

2028, 2029 and onward. I don't know

where they came up with this number.

>> Yeah, you could have what what you could

have is a lot of deposits or capacity

reservations for people that want to get

in line to get their product up there.

And you could have a lot of uh Starship

in uh traffic in those years as well.

Putting everybody else's product doesn't

have to be data center driven and of

course Starlink.

>> Yeah, I guess so. I mean, let's take a

look what they said. So, it says here um

that the 160 billion 2028 the estimate

is that the rocket the rocket company's

revenue the revenue would exceed 470

billion. Okay. To get the dos anticipate

revenue from AI business to provide the

bulk of the revenue after this year and

grow dramatically. Okay. So, I mean,

they're just pitching really high big

giant numbers. And uh part of the

reason, of course, is that they are the

top two rolls out of the banks.

>> Whoever the largest number gets to be

the lead, you know.

>> Yeah. I mean, there's there I mean, to

be fair, there is nothing like SpaceX.

The businesses that have been created

inside of the company and uh the

leadership and what they've been able to

prove so far, there's nothing like it.

So, uh, it'll be interesting. The

question is, is there a competitor

coming up? That's, if there is a

competitor, what are they going to do?

They're going to launch rockets. They're

going to do one thing. I don't know if

there's going to be a company that comes

up that does all these different things.

Um, you could see Blue Origin and maybe

Amazon getting together in the future,

uh, more as one company, but, you know,

they've got a ways to go as well. And

there's so much work, there's so much

traffic, there's so much demand that's

going to be on this that you can have a

couple of companies and you're still

going to have some unbelievable mode and

profitability for a long period of time.

>> How do you Jeeoff, how do you how do you

take that? Okay, so SpaceX huge frenzy,

we just talked about it going IPO.

You've already answered the question of,

you know, it's going to be very

volatile. We don't know, but the future

is good. How do you answer the question

about how it is uh in some ways seen as

very politically important for United

States? This is a race between US and

China. China is going to be the

competitor here or one of the other

countries out there. They're going to do

their everything to have, you know,

obviously rockets but also data centers

and AI there too. And don't count them

out because they've got, you know, the

will and the money and and all that. uh

but you know do you think that SpaceX

will be seen by

both parties here in the US as as uh

nationally important critical to

national importance? Yeah.

>> Yes, they will. It it will be

politicized

but

the I think the real professionals will

understand. I don't, by the way, I don't

think we've seen the extent of

different types of government uh

contracts and businesses and even

business units inside of SpaceX.

Uh right now there's, you know, there's

Star Shield and there's other things for

Space Force where, you know, we're where

SpaceX is helping the US government put

product into space. It's part of our

national defense. But I think there

could be many things beyond beyond what

SpaceX is doing today. To me, if you

look at the product lines, like you look

at Starlink, the the the US defense or

government version of it is Star Shield.

To me, if you look at the other major

product lines that Tesla does, there's

no reason why there couldn't be a US

defense version of a number of things

that they build today, especially their

AI. Um but even some of their other

their hardware products, there's there's

not a there's no reason to believe that

there isn't potential national defense

um like correlary to some of the the

private market products that they built,

the consumer market products they build

today. So

>> did you have a Freudian slip? Did you

say did you mean SpaceX or did you

really mean Tesla?

>> Both.

>> Yeah, I mean the combined the combined

version. Look, I mean, there's

>> there I I know the government I know

right now the government's on this kick

of like everything's got to be coal and

and gas powered and I got it,

>> but there there are there will be I

think there could be many reasons why

that there are many product lines

that'll be made that we have just we

haven't even seen yet. Let's think let's

think think about drones for a second.

If Tesla gets into that or SpaceX, most

likely SpaceX gets into that business.

>> U it's not going to be Yeah. Anyway,

there's so many business units here that

could come about and again the core of

it is their manufacturing capability.

>> Uh

okay. So, one of the things that SpaceX

is doing is um I lost my train of

thought a little bit there cuz Yeah, you

were just

>> Yeah, what I was just talking about is

their moat right now is their ability to

manufacture rockets rapidly and then the

rockets that they make are reusable.

There's a lot of one-way way drone

technology. There's a lot of things

today that aren't usable reusable.

There's a lack of manufacturing capacity

for these things in the US. A lot of

these things can be solved really

quickly by a company like SpaceX and

Tesla. So anyway, I'd just be interested

to see if they decide to because the

this field is getting crowded. It's not

like there aren't a bunch of companies

trying to figure out how to build drones

in the US and in allied countries, but

uh it just be interested to see if Tesla

goes after it. And they don't have to,

by the way, if sorry, SpaceX and or

Tesla go, but they don't even have to.

There's so many other elements of the

company that that could be leveraged for

national defense. Anyway, these numbers

could get really big, really nutty,

really quick is the point.

>> It's because they're becoming national

government representation, not just like

a private company anymore.

>> SpaceX is very big today with a very

tiny fraction of it being government

contract based.

>> Yeah. and and and he's also Elon in the

last week, I don't know if this is

positioning, but it sounds like it's

real. He's saying that this SpaceX data

centers is open for business for any

company. If Microsoft wants to put up

their own, Google wants to put their

TPU, it can accommodate whatever TPU,

whatever AI you want, we will do it for

you. So, he's saying it's not just for

XAI, not just for SpaceX. Do you think

he's real? He's serious about that? It's

uh you know one way to prevent being

seen as a monopoly.

>> Yes. Until

uh he needs that capacity himself. So he

will it's the same playbook for Tesla

making batteries. Like I will buy as

many batteries as possible to support my

business, but I'm going to make my own.

And that's going to help me establish

pricing. It's going to help me establish

a market and tech position so nobody can

take me out. see these other companies,

they can get taken out. Like if we're

out of if we're out of terrestrial

capacity for data centers in the US,

there's this huge political push back

and you can't get I mean look at the

corner that Anthropics painted in now.

Their product there Opus 4 is so

popular, but they they didn't have

enough capacity to serve the public and

the experience started deteriorating.

Imagine that happening, you know, times

10. And and that could that could really

happen. So Elon always wants his himself

and his companies in a position where

nobody can bottleneck him. And he still

there's still risk all over the place

and the big one in front of him is chips

and and and chip capacity.

Um so that's that's the key. He does not

want to be bottlenecked. he won't be

bottlenecked and he doesn't necessarily

have to be the leader or the number one

producer of that category. He just wants

to establish a position in it and then

he can fill up that capacity as he sees

fit.

>> So I think I think we're you and I both

will agree to a$10 trillion number and

like you said earlier like we don't know

yet if that includes Tesla. Of course if

it includes Tesla we can certainly see a

SpaceX acquiring Tesla company could get

to 10 trillion at some point. very

that's a lot easier to say 2030 we don't

know but

here's you know the only company

honestly this is just the weirdest thing

no I guess not weird I mean Elon planned

for this for 20 years it's the only

company that can do reusable rockets

which then sets them up to be the only

company to create unlimited AI data

centers which gets free energy from the

sun and then all sorts of benefits

coming from that and then you have

access to the most intelligence the

larger data center, the smarter the AI

is. You've got control of that and

energy. So, you got AI and energy that

you have cornered as your own. Now,

you're going to share it with others to

get rental operational

efficiencies, but otherwise, that's what

you're betting is that this is the only

company that can do this. And if they

pull it off, it's probably going to be

well more than 10 trillion. Do you agree

with the 10 trillion number though that

I just the way I positioned that?

>> Yeah, I mean, as a baseline. Yeah. And

remember, the other reason to have those

contracts with competitors as well is to

not be seen as an antitrust risk. So,

he's going to have this there's going to

be this bottleneck to get the space.

There's going to be this bottleneck for

energy and he's going to be at the

center of it controlling a lot of it.

But with these deals in place, you can't

say that he's not

>> Yeah.

>> You know, bringing others into the loop.

>> You hurt You hurt him. You're hurting

all these other companies. That is Yeah.

Hopefully US-based. Do you think he

would ever make a deal with China? China

has uh Tesla China is significant. Tesla

autonomy ro cybercaps robo taxi in China

robots in China factories in China.

>> Not anything military or national

defense related.

>> No way. So then China comes up and says,

"Look, Tesla, Elon, uh you better give

me access to space or else we're going

to cut you out of China." No, I think

China um they're they're number I think

they're number two between them and the

Russians behind SpaceX. They're going to

they're going to focus on building out

their own

um pathway to space and their own

capacity to space. I don't think they're

going to have to do that. Nor would they

lock Elon out like that because locking

him out is detrimental to the rest of

like any new thing that he wants to

bring in. They they they like they

invite Tesla or Elon companies in. So

it's actually they're smart enough to

know. Now it doesn't mean that Xin maybe

Xinping isn't the leader but when this

decision is made but China's, you know,

smart enough to know that it's better to

have him there than to lock him out.

>> I agree with you. I think China is the

biggest uh unknown and another top risk.

But I I think at this point I agree with

you. China needs Tesla more than Tesla

needs China. And then China needs SpaceX

more than SpaceX needs SpaceX Tesla

would need. So I'd be I'd be perfectly

happy if SpaceX acquires Tesla and then

China says, "Oh, you can't do your

humanoid robots here." Yeah, it's it's a

hit, but it's not not going to be that

big of a hit.

>> I I actually think China would invite

Tesla to build humanoid robots. The the

question of sale is an interesting

thing. Will they allow? But I think I I

I actually think I I'm I'm I may be on

the other side of this. They're going to

want Tesla and Optimus in China. I think

our government is going to get in the

middle of that just like our government

is getting in the middle of Nvidia.

>> Interesting.

>> I think our government is going to right

now the government is getting in the

middle of chatbot AI, both chips and

with the the models. And I think they're

going to get in the middle of physical

AI as well. So it's going to be

government restricted. that it won't be

Tesla, SpaceX,

>> and it'll probably be could actually be

the US that does it, not the China. Very

interesting. You're right. You're

absolutely right. Wow, Jeeoff, thank you

very much. Uh SpaceX IPO Friday uh

frenzy's crazy. Take a look at these

numbers. Um and hopefully we gave you

some of our thoughts. Thank you, Jeeoff.

Follow him on his ex account at the

Jeffoff Lutz. Thanks, everybody. I've

created a website that is the most

comprehensive resource for the Tesla

investor. Please check it out. Simply go

to my website at herbond.com.