Scott Galloway on AI’s Market Impact, Future-Proof Jobs, and Parenting in the AI Age | Office Hours
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If we could go back, they always say,
you know, if you could go back in time,
Warren Buffett would joke, we'd kill the
Wright brothers because airlines have
been such a terrible investment. I think
our biggest regret about this era of
tech is going to be what we let happen
to our children here.
Welcome to PropG on AI. This is a
special series where we are joined by
Greg Scho, the CEO of Section to tackle
your questions on what AI means for
work, business, and the future. So
disclosure, I'm the founder of Section.
Section is a firm that helps uh deploy
AI to the workforce of companies. All
right, Greg, let's get into it. Our
first question comes from user Brosa
8020 on Threads. They say, "It seems AI
is the only thing giving the S&P 500 its
gains over the past year or two. How
much longer can this last and when will
the vast majority of the remaining
companies start to show signs of life?"
Greg, what are your thoughts about the
concentration
uh of a small number of stocks
specifically? It feels like AI is
driving the S&P and to that extent kind
of valuations of the global markets.
What what are your thoughts?
Yeah, I think we've got a couple more
years to find out how this is going to
end. Meaning they are uh these
valuations have been driven by an
assumption that the independent AI
companies and I would specifically focus
on open AI and anthropic can actually
generate at least a hope of profitable
revenue. They've got revenue now. Can
they show even a hope of profitable
revenue in a couple three years? I kind
of feel these companies got those two in
particular right the whole we're we're
heading to AGI give us you know
bucketloads of cash pitch has worked.
could just both those companies just
closed new rounds of capital and I feel
like they can do it one or two more
times which feels which seems like two
to three more years of runway at which
point the whole thing starts to collapse
under its own weight and only the guys
with the picks and shovels actually made
money so the data centers the chips the
energy uh but we've got to get to a
place where you know we can see some
revenue that that might have some margin
I agree it's pretty striking you have
there's just four big tech stocks Nvidia
Microsoft Meta and Broadcom um that
account for 60% of the S&P's index total
return so far this year. So the majority
of the index's returns are driven by
just four companies. And the S&P is up
2.6% this year just based on just based
on Nvidia.
And in addition, it's it's not just the
S&P. The S&P is becoming the global
market. The Magnificent 7 make up over
20% of the MSCI all country index. So
they're not only driving and dictating
the returns in the S&P, they're driving
and dictating the returns of just the
global market. Nvidia, Microsoft, and
Apple each carry a heavier weight than
all of China's stock market combined.
Think about that. So those three
companies, their movements are more
influential and important than the
entire Chinese stock market. And the
premium here is pretty substantial. The
S&P 500, I think, trades at about 23 and
a half forward earnings. And if you take
away those four megga cap stocks, the
multiple falls to 19
uh.4.
And if someone were to tell us uh and
I'm curious if what you think of this,
Greg, that in 6 months we know that
there'd been a crash in the markets that
there had been a global sell-off
and we were asked to guess what it would
be. It would be fun to catastrophize a
civil war or an outbreak of war. Article
five triggered because of attack drones
coming from Russia in in Romania and
Poland. I think the most obvious
explanation would be to be one to be
kind of more boring and that is a big or
a series of big corporations,
traditional corporations announced in
their earnings calls that they were
dramatically scaling back their
investments in AI. That their
investments had not shown the ROI they'd
hoped for. you'd see Nvidia crash and
then you just see this ripple effect all
the way through the uh S&P uh AI supply
chain and people just don't realize how
dramatic it is. Most recently, you had a
38% one-day gain in Oracle which made
Larry Ellison the richest person in the
world. He increased his wealth by about
$120 billion
in one day. And uh this was driven off
of an announcement that OpenAI was
committing to spend, get this, $300
billion
to rent compute from Oracle over 5
years. So when OpenAI looks at its
consumer behavior in its business, it is
so confident in its business that it is
committed to a contract that will
obligate it to pay $60 billion a year
for the next 5 years off a company
that's currently doing 10 billion a
year. So the expectation of this market
is just so incredible that any any kind
of flaw I mean this isn't priced to
perfection. It's priced to insanely
perfect. Yeah, I agree Scott. I don't
think investors realize how fragile
these businesses are. I mean just look
at the last couple weeks, right?
Anthropic settled one class action
publisher lawsuit and had to use 10% of
the capital they just raised. 1.5
billion out of a$1 13 billion round they
had to pay out just to settle one
lawsuit. Right. XAI just laid off 500
people uh this past week uh because they
realized the way they were training
their AI models didn't work as they had
planned. U you know Zox pays 14.5
billion to get one CEO Alexander Wang
from scale to help him recruit other AI
researchers. You know the these
companies
have faced unprecedented challenges.
They have no idea what they're doing.
And I think you're right. What we're
seeing is super companies are being
built potentially if OpenAI, Anthropic,
and others can actually get to $20
billion in revenue with a fraction of
the headcount that Google can with
revenue per employee metrics that are
more like 3 to 5 million per employee.
These are literally super companies in
today's context and traditional metrics.
And I think what the market's saying is
we want to back super companies only.
And so I think that you know if this
thing all works out I think we'll see
this concentration potentially getting
even narrower even you know even even
tighter meaning the rest of corporate
America has to figure out how to become
a super company in some way using AI or
they won't be able to attract any
capital or any investor interest.
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[Music]
All right, question number two comes
from Reddit. Hawaiian bri. I think I can
give it to Reddit. The people are come
up with very interesting titles.
Anyways, so Hawaiian Bry asks, "Scott,
you said AI won't take your job. Someone
who knows how to you use AI will take
your job. What are the key areas in
which a competitive employer candidate
really needs to demonstrate their AI
competency today? Personally, I'm in the
legal space and use AI for research,
summarizing law regulations, and
prioritizing my inbox. But a lot of my
work is still very manual. Plus, I don't
want to be one of those people who cite
AI hallucinations in my work. So, I
spent a lot of time vetting and revising
AI output, which often feels like I'm
doing all the work myself. Anyways,
Greg, thoughts on AI and more
specifically AI in the legal profession.
First of all, I think we all have to be
you've got to show that you're really
good with AI and you've got to be a
driver of your AIS and and not what I
call a passenger. So, if you're using
AI, you've got to really be in the 1% of
people that know how to use it. And what
that means is you're able to steer your
favorite AI model to get the kind of
outputs you like. And that includes
managing for hallucinations. And we can
all complain about hallucinations, but
the reality is a lot of them are
manageable and and can be eliminated or
at least reduced to make yourself more
productive. So what I mean by steering
AI, I mean that you need to be able to
provide context with your AI. You need
to be able to know how to upload your
own documents of data. You need to be
able to ask AI to adopt a persona when
it's working with you. You need to be
able to uh work with reasoning models
and multi-step
uh AI tasks with your AI. again to get a
successful outcome. So when we interview
people, we're really looking right away
for their ability to steer AI. The
second thing we're looking for is do
they have their favorite use cases? And
it sounds like this listener hasn't yet
found the use case that generates a
decent return in terms of their efforts.
But you got to be able to to talk about
three to five use cases, whether it's
personally at home or but certainly at
work where you've been able to get AI,
you've been able to coax and steer AI to
get the outcome you want to make
yourself more productive and a little
bit smarter. And we all have those. When
I talk to candidates that that really
have very superficial use cases, that
tells me they're not spending enough
time with AI and they're not really
figuring this out. And the last thing we
look for is hacks, Scott. Everybody
who's a really active AI user has a
couple three personal hacks, things they
figured out. Might be talking to AI,
using advanced voice mode, or, you know,
whatever it is. We're just they've been
able to sort of find a workaround or a
way to sort of uh, you know, get get
more from AI. So we've just got to be in
that 1% of people that are using AI kind
of like power users and that that's the
for us that's the base case for a
candidate.
So I learned something from you um and
that is and I'm going to hold this up
what you called uh you suggested that
everyone have a second screen. I don't
know if you remember saying this, but I
took it to heart. And now, wherever I
am, I have my screen where I do my
regular work. And then I bring with me a
second screen. And up on the second
screen, if anyone could see it, is is um
is Claude. And I have Claude and Chat
GPT. Those are the two I use. I need to
get better at using the rest. I keep
seeing those Tik Toks saying, "If you're
only using Chat GPT, you're
No, you don't. You don't, Scott. You You
I think this is one of the mistakes a
lot of people are making. They're sort
of getting overwhelmed and with too much
AI and and trying too many tools. Pick
one or two at most, but really one GPT
or Claude or maybe Gemini if you love
Google and just get really great at one
AI.
That's interesting. I use them for
different things, but my point is I've
taken your advice and what I do is I use
it for everything now or I test it and I
use it as a thought partner is the way I
would describe it. When I first started
using it, I thought, "Oh, this is going
to be great. I'll just have I'll just
give it a very long prompt and have it
write my next book and boom, I'll
collect my advance. Doesn't work that
way. It's very anodine. But what it is
really good for is when I write my
newsletter on Friday's No Mercy and
Malice. If I need to trim it by 200
words, I say, "Trim this post by 200
words," and then highlight which words
you trimmed. Or I'll say, "I don't like
my ending. It's too emotional and angry.
How do I tone it down? Which words?" And
they'll come back with a couple ideas.
And I I do compare uh Claude against
Chad GBT to see what they're coming at.
What I've noticed recently is they're
they're becoming the same AI that
they're reverse engineering each other
and coming back with the exact same
answers. I I'm literally using it for
almost everything. We're in a
negotiation right now about taking PropG
Markets,
editing it. We do two and a half hours a
week of I don't even call it podcast of
our content. editing it down to 40 uh 8
minutes and then running it on Saturday
or Sunday morning on this network and
doing a rev share because they need, you
know, the problem with cable news is
that it's declining so fast that they
need to dramatically decrease the cost
of the means of production. So I went to
someone who runs one of the bigger
networks and I said, "Give us an hour
and it's zero incremental cost to you.
We have all of it already done and we'll
do a revshare." Okay, the rev share. So,
we're talking to them, right? I go on to
chat GPT and Claude and say, "This is
the deal. This is the show. This is the
network based on viewing patterns, ad
rates, ad revenues, and previous deals
like this. What should the rev share
split be?" And they both came back with
the exact same answer and a bunch of
rational reason in a range. And it was
just so helpful. And in this instance,
you know, human instinct kicks in. I
don't mind going at the low end of the
range because I want my partners to make
money and I just, you know, quite
frankly, I'm excited about the
opportunity to have a new channel. But
before I just would have had absolutely
no idea where to start. This gentleman
in the legal field, I think law is just
going to get gutted and it's going to be
a metaphor for America. What do I mean
by that? Everything's being optimized
for the top 1% or the top 10%.
And I am now using uh Chat GPT to drop
legal contracts. I'm just going to spend
less money. And I keep the one place I
keep hearing corporations saying the
lowhanging fruit. I talked to one of the
largest private equity firms in the
world and the guy who runs their one of
their their biggest divisions and he
said, "We've been tasked with cutting
our legal expenses by 30 to 50 million
this year." And he said, "We're going to
exceed it using AI." Any closing
thoughts here? Yeah, Scott, I want to go
back to what you said about that the AI
monitor or screen. I think that all of
us need a reminder to use AI. We're not
AI native. We're not in we're not in
school now. The kids in school now are
AI AI native and when they come out and
go to work, they won't even think about
should I use AI for any task. They'll
use AI for every task. I think for the
rest of us, you know, the monitor was
the the sort of hack I I started in
January this year. Before that, I had a
post-it note. You know, talk about loi,
right? I just had a yellow post-it note
on my monitor saying ask AI just to
remind myself to, you know, kind of
consult AI. I also now use that. I use
the GPT5 widget on my phone. So, I'd
recommend this for others as well. Put
either Claude or GPT5, whatever your
favorite AI is. I use GPT5 widget right
on my on my home screen. So, it's always
there. And I basically have turned off
Google as much as I can in my life. It's
really important that you we all get to
something like a hundred conversations a
day with AI. That's what power knowledge
workers are doing today and in some
cases hundreds. And I'm not talking
about talking to your AI companion. I'm
talking about, you know, when you're at
work, lots of conversations for all
kinds of questions with AI. You really
got to you got to kind of jump over from
Google into this world as fast as you
can.
Great. Thanks, Greg. We'll be right back
after a quick break.
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On to our final question.
Hey Scott, Tim from Long Island, New
York. As a father of four and 5-year-old
girls, I really appreciate the emphasis
you place on being a father. And while
I'm not raising young men myself, I do
realize my duty in providing a positive
example for my daughter so that they may
one day partner with someone and
recognize qualities to look for in a
mate. That being said, my question is
related to what I think is very much a
common theme in your assessment on a
variety of topics, and that is the
generational loss of reasoning and
critical thinking skills. In this coming
age of AI, how can we continue to raise
children that can think critically and
reason on their own?
I'll repeat the last part of the
question. In this coming age of AI, how
can we continue to raise children that
can think critically and reason on their
own? Greg, what are your thoughts?
Well, this is coming from my advice is
coming from someone who who was really
ineffective in terms of intervening with
his kids. So, what I would say is we
cannot outsource this question to our
schools. really that's that's the advice
here which is we do as challenging as it
can be have to intervene I think in this
moment with our kids in that I think
most schools from middle schools up to
colleges are really struggling right now
in terms of how they should talk about
AI how they should use it in the
classroom and so what the road ahead
looks like they'll eventually sort it
out presumably but until that happens I
think we as parents are going to have to
get pretty hands-on with our kids in
terms of how they how they should be
using AI and we're going to have to be
quite explicit around using AI as a
thinking partner, not an outcome
partner. And and kids are going to just
are going to want to use it as an
outcome partner. They're just going to
want to use it to get the damn paper or
assignment done and submitted and get a,
you know, get a good enough grade.
That's the reality. Kids have always
thought that way. So, we're we're just
going to have to talk to them about
things like, "Show me the prompts. Did
you fact check AI? Show me how you
worked with AI to get to get this kind
of outcome that that you're going to
submit." We're going to have to get
hands on here for the next few years.
Anyone who thinks that families have a
good parents. Yeah, I know you and
Cindy. I know you're great parents. I'd
like to think I'm a good parent. Aspire
to be a great parent, but I think
probably I'm just good. And there's just
no getting around it. First off, 90%
90%. Yeah, about 90% of the anxiety,
stress, agit fights in our house have to
do with the phone. I mean this
has if we could go back they always say
you know if you could go back in time
Warren Buffett would joke we'd kill the
Wright brothers because airlines have
been such a terrible investment. I think
our biggest regret about this era of
tech is going to be what we let happen
to our children here. It is just whether
it's addiction to Tik Tok, getting
misinformation and believing is
true they see online because it's a Tik
Tocker they like or their their brains
being rewired to the point where I'm not
even sure my kids are capable of
watching a movie. And that is if I put
them in a seat in a movie theater where
it's like high impact crazy sound and we
get a ton of shitty food they can
consume to keep them all hopped up. they
can sort of do it, but trying to sit
them down for movie night, it's near
impossible because they're so used to
getting dopa hits in 90 secondond cycles
or 20 second cycles. So, I'm sort of now
of the mind that
we need to probably ban phones,
smartphones for kids under the age of
16, and I'm now thinking under the age
of 18. Uh, I just think the downsides
far outweigh the upsides. And there's
two different I mean, some of it's good,
some of it's bad. My youngest is
essentially,
you know, trying to start a bunch of
businesses using AI. He has AI build a
website and he his latest one was he was
going to sell home goods and he came up
with this thing called root home and it
was this bad website and then he asked
AI how do I drive traffic? How do I make
money? And I can look at it and go,
okay, this isn't going to work. But
that sounds like some of your early
e-commerce ventures, Scott.
Yeah, that's exactly right. But I
couldn't be more proud that my
14-year-old, now 15, is using AI to try
and figure out how to build websites and
make money. And I think I want him to be
an AI enabled warrior around this stuff.
And it was like, it's just it's just
fantastic. At the same time, AI is being
weaponized by these social media
platforms to keep him occasionally on
his side like he's in the midst of a
gigantic heroin trip staring at his
phone. Just this bed rot. So I'm of two
minds about it. And that is I think kids
should pretty early learn how to use AI
such that the same way we you know we
learned how to use calculators. At first
they didn't want remember that they
didn't want calculators in school. I
remember in business school they didn't
want us the fir my first year in
business school they didn't want us
using spellch check because they thought
it was unfair and then they then they
got their heads out of their asses and
said of course you should use technology
to have better inputs and better
deliverables. The admissions departments
at universities are struggling with
whether they should let kids use AI or
not. And of course they will. I don't
think there's going to be any way to not
screen it out. Anyway, I'm of two minds
of this. And that is you got to have
competent kids. But if AI is being used
to quite frankly radicalize them, get
them addicted to certain technologies,
we've got to be more mindful there. My
advice to any parent, and I did not do
this, absolutely prohibit social media
and even a smartphone
until probably age 16. I'm with Jonathan
Hyde on this. There's certain upsides,
downsides to that. You won't be able to
communicate as easily with them. Your
thoughts, Greg?
Yeah, we're just back to the question.
Just one last thought on this. Listen, I
used to say to everybody, and I think
this was sort of a mean
Are you mocking me? Are you saying I
wasn't answering the question?
No. No, I was just
Is this part of this? Is this what
happens when you bring your friends on?
I don't know. I was just trying to help
this list around, dude. Uh, listen, I
think that um, we used to say use AI for
your first draft. I used to say this all
the time to my team and and said
everyone I spoke to. And I think
actually I've changed this is a mistake.
I've changed my mind for drafting.
Sorry.
Yeah. Ex. No, I agree. Like I think you
want starting with kids, we all need to
struggle with that first draft. Even
just an outline, just sit with it and
try to think it through yourself and
then frankly you're going to have a much
better conversation with AI anyway. So I
think just that little bit of struggle
doesn't have to be for hours. It just
could be for 101 15 minutes with
whatever the problem is or whatever the
question is. U ask your kids to do that
first and then get to AI next and then
for that for the from there have a good
conversation with AI, learn how to use
it, try to get a good outcome. But we've
all got to struggle I think with the
blank page a little bit more.
That was great. Thanks Greg. Greg
Schauve is the CEO of Section, a company
that helps deploy AI for enterprises. uh
and uh a good friend for 30 years. Uh
Greg, very much appreciate your time
today.
Thank you, Scott. Anyways, if you'd like
to submit a question for next time, you
can send a voice recording to office
hours of profia.com. Again, that's
office hours of profgdia.com or post
your question on the Scott Galloway
subreddit and we just might feature it
in our next episode.
[Music]
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video discusses the significant impact of AI on the stock market, particularly the concentration of gains in a few large tech companies. It explores the sustainability of these valuations, the potential for a market correction if AI investments don't yield expected profits, and the broader implications for businesses and society. The conversation also delves into how individuals can demonstrate AI competency in the job market, with a focus on "steering" AI rather than just being a passenger. Finally, it addresses the critical need for parents to guide children in developing critical thinking and reasoning skills in the age of AI, emphasizing the potential downsides of early and pervasive smartphone use.
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