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Former Prince Andrew Arrested — Will Epstein’s Network Face U.S. Justice? | Pivot

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Former Prince Andrew Arrested — Will Epstein’s Network Face U.S. Justice? | Pivot

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0:00

I think the UK just demonstrated more

0:02

institutional courage in one morning

0:04

than the entire US Department of Justice

0:06

has managed in five years.

0:15

>> Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York

0:17

Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast

0:18

Network. I'm Cara Swisser

0:20

>> and I'm Scott Galloway

0:22

>> and I am a trad wife.

0:24

>> What does that mean?

0:25

>> I made bread and butter this morning.

0:28

butter from scratch and I made this

0:29

delicious bread. Let me unwrap my

0:32

>> You're really proud of it. You sent me a

0:33

a photo of it.

0:34

>> I know. Well, I am. I made it. I I I

0:37

know it sounds really stupid, but I get

0:38

I I'm on in Here's the whole bread. You

0:40

can see it. Everybody see it. It's a

0:42

It's a loaf of It's a baguette. This

0:43

today is a baguette. And I also made

0:45

butter with a marble and a jar and some

0:48

heavy cream uh last night at dinner.

0:50

Fresh butter. I'm going to make cultured

0:52

butter next. Um, I I get on Instagram

0:55

and I'm obsessed with watching uh food

0:57

videos and I save them and I'm starting

1:00

to make all of

1:01

>> What's the next thing you're going to

1:02

make?

1:02

>> Uh, we're going to probably make another

1:04

bread. Bread. We're going for bread and

1:05

butter. We like bread and butter cuz I'm

1:06

a trad wife. So, anyway, there you go.

1:09

>> Yeah. No, I think I like that white

1:11

supremacist baking company. And he said

1:14

that his family had a long history of

1:16

being in bread.

1:18

>> Oh, I can't believe you have a bread

1:20

joke. Um, I have to say it takes me out

1:22

of um

1:23

>> takes you out of your head.

1:24

>> Out of my head. Like I It was an It was

1:26

advice, you know, from doing this series

1:28

that's coming out. I I spend too much

1:30

time in my head. And so Zeke Emanuel

1:32

suggested he makes honey. I was like,

1:34

I'm going to do things that isn't in my

1:35

head. And I have to say, I'm baking is

1:38

really chem, you know, it's you have to

1:40

pay attention and I'm learning. And so

1:42

it's and it's totally you cannot pick up

1:44

I mean, I have the phone there with the

1:46

rest as they're talking to me, but it's

1:48

a useful use of the phone, I guess. I

1:49

don't know what else to say. Anyway, I

1:50

really like it.

1:52

>> So, two muffins are in the oven when one

1:55

turns to the other and says, "Man, it's

1:57

so hot in here today." And the other met

1:59

and the other muffin says, "Holy [ __ ]

2:01

it's a [ __ ] talking muffin."

2:06

>> I can't believe you have bakery jokes,

2:08

>> Cara. My wife has been sleeping around

2:10

with other men. Our church pastor is

2:11

coming over tonight to offer advice, and

2:13

my wife is baking cookies, but I'm

2:15

embarrassed because the cookies are

2:17

homemade.

2:20

I could do this all night.

2:22

>> Why do you have them? Are you on the Did

2:23

you suddenly get on the internet and

2:24

said baking jokes? Is that what happened

2:26

there?

2:26

>> No, I have a I have an incredible memory

2:29

um for 1970s Ram playoff losses and for

2:35

dad jokes. That part of my brain is

2:37

alive and well.

2:38

>> Any we've got a lot to get to today, so

2:40

let's dig in. Um this is an astonishing

2:43

development. former Prince uh Prince

2:45

Andrew has been we call him former

2:47

Prince Andrew right now uh used to be

2:49

known as Prince has been arrested on

2:51

suspicion of misconduct in public office

2:53

by British police. You know he should be

2:57

arrested for something else but this is

2:59

what they could get him on. The full

3:00

details of the arrest are not clear at

3:02

the time of the taping but former prince

3:03

has been under increasing pressure after

3:05

the latest release of the Epstein files.

3:07

Andrew Moundbotton Moundbatton Windsor

3:10

which is his name was previously

3:11

stripped of his royal title due to his

3:14

uh involvement with Epstein mean finally

3:16

after many many years of this. Meanwhile

3:18

Casey Wasserman has decided to put his

3:20

talent agency and marketing firm up for

3:21

sale amidst criticism his past

3:23

relationship with Gilain Maxwell. Uh

3:25

there's a ton of people Dean there's so

3:27

I sent you the list of people that are

3:29

you know obviously um uh Larry what's

3:33

his name Larry oh Summers uh stepped

3:36

down Dean Cayman is having trouble he's

3:39

the famous robotics guy um all all

3:41

manner of people the former prime

3:43

minister of Norway um everyone but the

3:46

guy who said they let you do it grab the

3:49

[ __ ] guy is not being investigated but

3:51

uh this is really interesting so from

3:53

you're not in England right now. But

3:55

what explain to people what this is

3:57

like, what this this is akin to

3:59

arresting a royal.

4:01

>> I think the UK just demonstrated more

4:04

institutional courage in one morning

4:06

than the entire US Department of Justice

4:08

has managed in 5 years.

4:10

>> Yeah.

4:11

>> And

4:13

it's just ironic. You know, my attitude

4:15

is, okay, now do Epstein's flight logs.

4:20

I mean,

4:20

>> yep. This is I mean some of it's

4:23

probably pretty political. The the crown

4:25

is probably looking to try and renew

4:29

their brand in an era where monarchies

4:31

are fading. This really is the last

4:33

monarchy

4:34

>> and also the prime minister is feeling

4:38

heat and potentially calls for his

4:40

resignation. But I think that I think

4:43

the UK quite frankly is actually

4:47

showing some fidelity to the notion that

4:49

no one is above the law. Yep.

4:51

Absolutely. I I agree. One of the things

4:53

that's really that's really important is

4:56

the investigation should have gone on.

4:58

These investigations that should have

4:59

happened when how badly prosecutors over

5:02

the entire period of time um from down

5:05

in Florida to now have [ __ ] this up.

5:08

And in terms of I think the moment with

5:09

Pam Bonnie and she had never talked to

5:11

those people like all of them are liars

5:14

like I don't know why don't you do an

5:16

investigation? And so she's obviously

5:18

not going to because she's bought and

5:19

paid for. But um but the fact that they

5:22

didn't do investigations here on as you

5:25

say the people who are criminally liable

5:27

and the other people who are getting you

5:28

know Bill Gates had a pull out of

5:30

something because of this look that'll

5:33

play itself out because that's about I

5:34

don't think it's about shaming. It's

5:36

about like gh bad judgment. People are

5:38

going to have to pay for their actions

5:40

eventually. Um, but the criminal

5:43

investigations that haven't gone on

5:45

here, the the ability and I have to say

5:47

we owe a debt of gratitude to uh uh Roan

5:50

and Thomas Massie for pushing

5:52

>> this through and we need and the the

5:55

redactions that this Bondi Justice

5:57

Department is doing are you know there

6:00

Ted Lou who is a a trained lawyer got up

6:03

and said there is credible evidence that

6:05

Donald Trump um this is what he is

6:07

saying. I have not seen these things

6:09

that he he uh he

6:13

sexually uh attack sex what is the right

6:15

way to do

6:15

>> assaulted

6:16

>> assaulted an underage girl and for him

6:20

to get up and say that at knowing that

6:22

he's a lawyer is really something like

6:26

and of course Trump is saying he's

6:27

exonerated he's not exonerated he hasn't

6:29

been investigated properly right and so

6:32

you know when he said let me just read

6:33

this again maybe just maybe um as this

6:38

fedded penny drops. Maybe it wasn't

6:40

locker room talk, right? Do you remember

6:42

that? I mean, this is what he said. Let

6:44

me read it. I don't even wait. And when

6:46

you're a star, they let you do it. You

6:49

can do anything. Grab them by the [ __ ]

6:51

You can do anything. I don't know if he

6:53

did anything, but I'd like to have

6:55

investigators really. I don't know if

6:57

they need an independent investigator or

7:00

>> special counsel.

7:01

>> Special to me. I never like those

7:02

things, but in this case, everybody's

7:04

dirty, right? And certainly Pam Body has

7:07

no business being in the job she's in.

7:10

They should they should have a special

7:11

counsel release all the files and

7:14

especially the criminal stuff keep it as

7:17

maybe not release those because they

7:19

really need to and it might not lead to

7:21

anything but to show that we have what

7:23

the UK is doing and it there may be a

7:25

statute of limitations by the way Scott

7:28

on this stuff. I don't know.

7:29

>> That's what's kind of interesting about

7:31

this specific case with Prince Andrew is

7:33

that or the person formerly known as

7:35

Prince Yeah, the

7:37

>> I know it is kind of funny, but he's not

7:39

funny. He's gross.

7:40

>> But when when the feds come for you and

7:42

say you've clearly committed engage in

7:44

criminal activity here, they usually

7:46

don't get you for what you know they

7:48

didn't. They got Al Capone for

7:50

moneyaundering or for for

7:51

>> No, no. For taxation.

7:52

>> Yeah. For tax evasion.

7:53

>> And Prince Andrew isn't being accused of

7:55

sexual assault. He's being accused of

7:58

passing state secrets to a convicted uh

8:01

felon. But that's the point. The point

8:04

is if you commit crimes our you know our

8:07

reach is far and our memory

8:09

uh is long and now I have a different to

8:14

me this is how you handle the Epstein

8:16

files and that is I don't think the

8:19

Epstein files should have been released

8:21

>> uh I think that the Department of

8:23

Justice

8:23

>> gets sullied I I know what you're

8:25

thinking right

8:26

>> I think the Department of Justice and a

8:28

team of lawyers including outside

8:30

lawyers contracted for this very

8:31

important case should have gone through

8:33

these things with a fine tooth hair and

8:35

comb and said, "Okay,

8:37

we're going to communicate to the public

8:40

what is in these files visav grand jury

8:42

indictments and prosecutions."

8:44

Because I think what has happened is

8:47

I think we have been so played here.

8:49

Cara, if I was advising the Trump

8:51

administration on how to dilute

8:54

the depravity here and to get him out of

8:57

this, I would be doing exactly what

8:59

they're doing. And that is by dripping

9:02

it out sclerotically

9:05

uh uh incorrectly. Some stuff's

9:08

redacted, some stuff isn't. And then we

9:11

all chase. We're like a Tyrannosaurus

9:13

Rex. Wherever we see movement and

9:14

violence and ringlight algorithm

9:17

shaming, we start talking about [ __ ]

9:20

Deepo Chopra.

9:22

>> And what the

9:23

>> We should talk about him too, but go

9:24

ahead.

9:24

>> I I disagree. I I think it's it's the

9:27

Department of Justice is a there for

9:29

criminal indictments and to create

9:31

incentives such that if you have a

9:32

daughter and you're a single mother and

9:34

your daughter gets invited to some

9:36

[ __ ] island that there's incentives

9:38

that people who feel entitled to rape

9:40

your daughter won't. Yes.

9:42

>> Whether or not someone is a creep or not

9:43

is a distant distant second. And all of

9:47

this [ __ ] has diluted the criminal

9:49

activity.

9:49

>> I don't think it's [ __ ] I think

9:50

it's part of the same thing. And this is

9:52

like, let me just say, who's the person

9:53

that said Epstein had legs? This whole

9:55

thing had legs a long time ago when

9:57

everyone thought it was going to go

9:58

away. This is one at the heart of the

10:00

MAGA infrastructure. As I noted, it is

10:03

also at the heart of a lot of it's true,

10:05

right? Some of it's true, some of it's

10:07

not, but it is part of a whole

10:10

movement around corruption of the

10:12

elites. And this is the worst version of

10:14

it. And I think we do need to talk about

10:17

people. Andrew did this because he

10:20

>> I'm on board. And Andrew is being

10:21

criminally prosecuted.

10:23

>> But I'm saying he did it because he

10:24

thought he didn't, as you say, he's not

10:26

bound by the law. Right. Right. Now,

10:28

breaking. New Mexico investigators open

10:30

a probe into whether Epste ordered the

10:32

burial of bodies on his Zoro Ranch

10:33

property. We need to investigate this

10:36

fully and wherever it takes us for for

10:38

it to have to just get out and get

10:40

everyone's attention, the normal people,

10:42

not the QAnon people. I think it's I

10:44

think this has so many drip drip drip

10:47

legs that it's going to is absolutely

10:50

going to reach Trump.

10:50

>> This should have been dozens if not

10:52

hundreds of indictments and prosecutions

10:55

from an institution we trust.

10:57

>> That's right. We don't trust the

10:59

appointment of a special counsel.

11:02

>> Saying a cabinet member didn't look to

11:05

commit a crime, but when he went under

11:07

oath in front of Congress and bragged

11:10

that he had nothing to do with this

11:11

person.

11:11

>> No, he did that on a podcast, but go

11:13

ahead.

11:13

>> Well, he he Oh, really? He hasn't done

11:16

it under oath?

11:17

>> No. No, under oath he told the truth.

11:20

Um, so

11:23

I feel that all of the liar I feel all

11:26

of the shaming feels really good and it

11:28

does say something about these

11:29

individuals. I think it is deliluding

11:31

and weakening the case against the

11:33

actual criminals here.

11:34

>> Well, I don't know. I think you can do

11:36

both. I can can just walk and chew gum

11:37

at the same time. And well, I think, as

11:40

I saying, let me move to the next thing

11:41

because it's part of this everyone's

11:43

tired of these [ __ ] rich people

11:45

taking everything. Like so right now

11:47

Mark Zuckerberg took the stand this week

11:49

that in this landmark social media

11:51

addiction trial defending Meta against

11:53

claims Instagram was designed to hook

11:54

young users and damage mental health.

11:56

Zuckerberg said in his testimony that

11:58

Instagram was not a harmful product.

11:59

It's a valuable service. Of course he'd

12:01

say that. He said that all along. He

12:02

believes he's navigated the safety of

12:04

young users in a reasonable way. He has

12:06

not. He also defended the company's

12:08

decision to allow beauty filters even

12:10

after experts warned they could harm

12:12

teen girls, including people internally.

12:14

Um, when pressed about old emails and

12:16

growth targets, Zuckerberg repeatedly

12:17

pushed back saying the same answer more

12:19

than a dozen times. You're

12:20

mischaracterizing this. This is an old

12:22

Mark Zuckerberg trick. We don't

12:23

understand him. Uh, neither of us are

12:26

lawyers and it's a really complex case.

12:27

And what what what two things it's not

12:30

just Facebook, it is also YouTube is

12:32

involved in this one. Others settled

12:34

other social media sites seem to have

12:36

settled here. Um, so and it's not clear

12:38

if YouTube is going to settle before

12:40

this, but this idea of of whether

12:42

they're entertainment or they're

12:44

actually addictive. The lawyers for the

12:46

the tech company sides are going to try

12:49

to portray this young woman who got on

12:51

Instagram when she was nine as troubled

12:54

had nothing to do with social media.

12:55

She's alleging that social media dragged

12:57

her down a hole of shame and

13:00

self-esteem. Um, it's a jury trial. Um,

13:05

I'm putting Mark in front of a jury

13:07

helps a herds. He's he's not great at

13:09

that. And he also, the judge wasn't

13:11

happy to see Meta's Rayban AI glasses

13:13

worn by several members of Zuckerberg's

13:15

team, which I thought was super [ __ ]

13:17

obnoxious to do for Zuckerberg to use it

13:19

as a marketing event. Um, she warned

13:21

anyone wearing smart glasses to be held

13:23

in contempt, noting the concern about

13:24

facial recognition of the of it. Um, so

13:28

just thoughts on this case because I

13:30

think it's really f there's there's

13:31

thousands of more behind it. By the way,

13:33

>> I think John Oaf who's running for

13:35

Senate has come up with a brilliant term

13:38

and that is a lot of Democrat how we

13:41

lose is this stereotyping and and

13:44

keyboard virtue signaling that if you

13:46

like all white people are racist, all

13:49

billionaires are evil, and all young men

13:51

are sexist, fine, they're going to leave

13:53

the party and we're going to and you're

13:54

going to have Vance as president. What

13:56

Osaf has done is really smart. He has

13:58

started describing this group of people

14:00

as he doesn't say the billionaire class,

14:02

he says the Epstein class. Because the

14:06

majority of Americans like the idea of

14:08

being rich someday and believe that if

14:11

they get richer, it doesn't necessarily

14:12

mean they're going to become depraved

14:14

weirdos.

14:15

So I think that is a really powerful

14:17

distinction that there is a class of

14:19

people

14:21

most rich people I do not believe are

14:23

like this but there is a class of people

14:25

who believe they are again as we talk

14:28

about

14:29

>> um protected by the law but not bound by

14:30

it. There's smoking guns everywhere but

14:32

the the real smoking gun I would focus

14:34

on if I were advising the prosecution

14:38

>> is their own internal research.

14:40

>> So let's go through a body.

14:42

>> It's not a prosecution. It's a it's a

14:43

law civil lawsuit. It's civil, but the

14:45

pe but the people the plaintiff's

14:48

attorney or whatever you would call

14:50

their own internal research regarding

14:52

body image harm. We make body image

14:54

issues worse for one in three teen

14:56

girls. This is according to a 2019

14:58

internal Meta presentation. 32% of teen

15:01

girls said that when they felt bad about

15:03

their bodies, Instagram made them feel

15:04

worse. That was a March 2020 internal

15:07

presentation. Meta's leaked internal

15:09

research showed that 32% of teen girls,

15:12

one-third, said Instagram made them feel

15:14

worse about their bodies and the company

15:16

knew it. Addiction by design. Meta

15:19

employee internal message. I I worry

15:22

that driving sess session incentivize us

15:24

to make our products more addictive

15:25

without providing much more value. How

15:27

to keep someone returning over and over

15:28

the same behavior each day. Intermittent

15:31

rewards are most effective. Think slot

15:33

machines. In focus groups, teens told us

15:36

they didn't like the amount of time they

15:37

spent on the app and they felt like they

15:39

had to be present. They often felt

15:40

addicted and know that what they're

15:42

seeing is bad for their mental health,

15:44

but feels but they feel unable to stop

15:48

themselves. On depression and anxiety,

15:50

teens blame Instagram for increases in

15:52

the rate of anxiety and depression said

15:54

another slide in a 2019 presentation.

15:57

This reaction was unprompted and

15:59

consistent across all groups. This is

16:03

their own research.

16:05

>> They also their own research showed they

16:07

have 4 million kids between 10 and 12 on

16:11

the platform when it's not supposed to.

16:12

13 is when they're not they didn't have

16:15

age age verification which isn't very

16:17

good anyway on the platform until 2019.

16:21

They This is what kills me with these

16:23

people. It's like how did how did four

16:26

million It's like oh four million kids

16:27

got into liquor stores somehow. Are you

16:30

[ __ ] kidding me? Four million kids.

16:32

How did that happen without them knowing

16:34

it? When they know everything that is

16:36

happening on that platform whenever they

16:38

go into this I don't you know kids can

16:41

get into things. You know my kid just

16:43

got into the refrigerator and took a you

16:45

know took a cookie the other day. That's

16:47

what they act like and in their own Let

16:50

me tell you I can't tell you how many

16:52

times

16:54

I have heranged Mark Zuckerberg on

16:56

safety and people inside the company

16:59

heranged him on safety. He just didn't

17:02

agree. And because he it cannot be

17:05

fired. If the board decides to fire him,

17:07

he can fire the board and appoint a new

17:09

board that likes him. He he can make

17:12

decisions on his own. And we are all

17:13

subject to decisions of one person who

17:16

has no accountability on him because

17:19

been making bad decisions whether it's

17:20

about anti-semitism, whether it's about

17:23

uh anything. And he always and he did

17:24

this again. And I I sighed I sighed for

17:27

free speech or not, you know, the filter

17:29

thing like, well, I decided not to act

17:31

paternalistic. Okay, Mark, don't act

17:34

paternalistic to toward adult users. We

17:37

get it. But you absolutely have to act

17:39

paternalistic towards young people. Like

17:42

the the safety issues about young the

17:45

fact that they still stick to their

17:46

idiotic guns when it comes to young

17:48

people. Let me mention another big tech

17:50

suit that just broke. Apple just got

17:52

sued by West Virginia for alleged

17:54

failure to curb child sexual abuse

17:56

materials on iOS devices and cloud

17:58

services. They should sue Grock. They

18:00

should sue all of them for these things.

18:03

And this is the way these companies are

18:05

going to go down like the cigarette

18:07

companies. And they still to me and I'll

18:10

stop ranting. His testimony show me once

18:13

again he is absolutely intractable in

18:15

his decision that everything he decides

18:18

is correct. And he it is simply not. It

18:21

is simply not. And let me be fair,

18:23

YouTube is bigger, but I it's all the

18:26

same to me. They're all enormous and

18:29

delotterious to the impact on our kids.

18:31

Period.

18:32

>> Just one more piece of data. Between

18:34

2010 and 2015, the number of 8th grade

18:36

through 12th graders exhibiting high

18:38

levels of depressive symptoms increased

18:40

by 33%. In the same period, the suicide

18:44

rate for girls in that age group

18:45

increased by 65%.

18:48

By 2015, 92% of teens owned a

18:52

smartphone. And today, here and now,

18:54

let's talk a little bit about young men.

18:56

Young men between the ages of 20 and 30

18:58

are spending less time outdoors than

19:01

prison inmates.

19:03

The data here, there are hundreds, if

19:06

not thousands of families whose kids

19:08

have killed themselves. There are

19:11

millions of families struggling with

19:13

anxiety and depression. And there's a

19:16

lot of different factors here, but this

19:18

definitively has made things worse.

19:21

The the good news is that I do think

19:25

finally, and I've said this before and

19:26

I've been wrong, but I'm going to say it

19:28

again. I think the worm has turned. And

19:30

that is typically it takes 20 to 30

19:32

years before the public moves in on a

19:36

well-funded addictive substance that is

19:39

creating harm across our society. It

19:41

took us 30 years with tobacco. It took

19:43

us 20 years with opiates. It looks like

19:46

it's going to take us about 20 years

19:47

here. But what you're seeing is it's

19:50

getting tied up in politics in sort of a

19:52

good way. And that is I think the

19:54

tariffs I think the ultimate reciprocal

19:56

tariff from different nations is going

19:58

to be they're going to start banning uh

19:59

US tech companies and they're going to

20:01

use this as a valid excuse. They're

20:04

going to say you're out. We're age

20:06

gating. We're banning this or where

20:07

they're going to ban an entire platform.

20:09

But it does feel like we're we are at a

20:11

turning point.

20:13

>> Well, the only this is a jury trial.

20:14

This is what's really interesting

20:15

because what I think is going to be the

20:16

problem for them is and by the way

20:18

sometimes like when some of the the FTC

20:20

stuff I see why Facebook or whatever

20:23

company won in certain ones of them,

20:24

right? But jury members either they have

20:28

kids and get it

20:30

>> know it at in their bones or they

20:32

themselves are addicted and call it

20:35

problematic usage when it's everybody

20:38

who you I'm addicted to food videos on

20:41

your on threads, Mark. I can't stop

20:43

watching them. And I am not an

20:45

addictive. I don't drink. I don't take

20:47

drugs. I am

20:49

>> absolutely addicted. There is no

20:51

question in my mind. And same with you,

20:53

right?

20:54

>> Some of it's good.

20:56

>> Some of it's good. And I use most of the

20:58

time I use I was looking at the time

20:59

spent. I use it for texting, like

21:00

bothering you, for example. But um but a

21:03

lot of it is addiction. And this jury is

21:05

going to hand you your head if you keep

21:08

insisting it's problematic usage. We

21:11

don't think you're totally at fault. I'm

21:13

sure this this poor girl had problems in

21:15

her family life, but this is a

21:17

contributing factor. Just like people

21:20

can have bad families and smoke

21:22

cigarettes,

21:24

it is it is part of of of a thing that

21:27

is making us worse as as as a country.

21:30

Um, and the same thing with Apple. They

21:31

should get sued. They should all get

21:33

sued and then we can have it out in

21:35

court. Same thing with the Epstein

21:37

victims and and the people and the

21:38

perpetrators. Let's have it all out in

21:40

court. Let's do it. Like if we lose, we

21:43

lose, but if we win, we win. And that to

21:45

me is the fairest thing.

21:46

>> I think we'll I think it'll start with

21:48

the kids. What I'm curious is if it

21:50

starts to

21:51

>> melt upwards, and that is

21:53

>> like cigarettes.

21:54

>> Well, the kids are the biggest problem,

21:55

right? And that's the one we're most

21:56

sensitive to.

21:58

>> That's where cigarettes started. But go

21:59

ahead.

22:00

>> I also think there's a real issue around

22:02

the coarsening of our discourse. I think

22:04

it's making us all more anxious and

22:06

making us all hate each other more. I

22:08

think I if if you type into open AI how

22:11

to ruin youth or how to undermine the

22:14

power of the United States both times

22:17

it'll come back with something that

22:18

resembles social media. There's just

22:21

people there's a reason and a lot of

22:23

it's economic that young people feel

22:24

worse and worse about America. But

22:27

social media is basically it's like when

22:29

you're in the third grade and two kids

22:31

start having words and everyone

22:32

surrounds them and shoves them and says

22:34

fight encourages them to fight. That's

22:37

happening a trillion times a day on

22:38

these platforms. It's turning even

22:40

amongst I spending a lot I'm thinking a

22:42

lot about how ways the left might [ __ ]

22:44

it up and lose in 26 and 28.

22:48

And one of those one of those ways is

22:50

the algorithms do a really good job of

22:54

convincing people who agree on 90% of

22:57

things to find the 10% they don't agree

22:59

on and figure out a way to get them

23:01

fighting and hating each other. You

23:04

know, it's just it really is ripping at

23:06

the fabric of society. I I I think our

23:09

adversaries are sitting back and

23:11

watching this and just loving it.

23:12

>> Yeah. I'm going to read from a very

23:14

famous author. Let me just read this.

23:16

All these companies began with a grozy

23:18

credo to change the world. But they have

23:20

done that in ways they did not imagine

23:22

by weaponizing pretty much everything

23:23

that could be weaponized. They have

23:25

mutated human connection so that

23:26

connecting people has often to become

23:28

about pitting them against one another

23:30

and turbocharged that discord into an

23:32

unprecedented and damaging volume. They

23:34

have weaponized social media. They have

23:35

weaponized the first amendment. They

23:37

have weaponized civil discourse and they

23:39

have weaponized most of all politics. I

23:42

wrote that in 2018. I got screamed at by

23:45

Facebook and the tech people for saying

23:46

that they were digital arms dealers.

23:48

That's what they are.

23:50

>> Have your time.

23:51

>> I'm just telling you it's just like

23:53

enough. Enough. And it begins, the

23:55

cigarette companies began with Joel

23:58

Camel, them using cartoons. They were

24:00

that cynical that they use cartoons to

24:02

attract kids to smoke. It's the same

24:05

thing and they need to stop. And same

24:08

thing, and by the way, let me not just

24:09

pick on Mark Zuckerberg. Apple, you need

24:12

to do something about CS Sam Gro, you

24:15

should be taken to court. Google, you

24:18

YouTube needs to be fixed in ways that

24:21

people kids don't become incredibly

24:23

addicted to what you're doing. And to

24:25

pretend otherwise just because you have

24:27

money, you can run over all these

24:29

senators and congressmen, you're not

24:30

going to run over all of us. That's my

24:32

feel. Anyway, that's enough. I'm going

24:33

to stop. All right, we're going to go on

24:34

a quick break. When we get back, Cole

24:36

Bayer takes on Paramount and the FCC.

24:40

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25:47

>> Support for this show comes from Framer.

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Rules and restrictions apply.

27:01

Scott, we're back. Late night host

27:03

Steven Cobear is calling out CBS and his

27:06

parent company Paramount for not

27:07

standing up to the bullies. Colbear

27:09

revealed this week that CBS lawyers told

27:11

him he could not air an interview with

27:13

Texas Democratic Senate candidate James

27:14

Telerico. Uh there were concerns about

27:17

running a foul of FCC Chairman Brandon

27:19

Carr, the [ __ ] as I like to call him,

27:21

and the FCC's equal time rule. Colobar

27:23

ended up posting the interview on

27:25

YouTube where as of this recording it

27:26

has nearly 7.5 million views. The

27:29

broadcast typically gets around 2.5

27:31

million viewers. This is just one single

27:32

interview. Coar summed up the irony on

27:35

his Tuesday episode. Let's listen.

27:39

So, we obeyed our network and put the

27:41

interview on YouTube where it's gotten

27:44

millions of views.

27:49

And and I I can see why. Taler Rico is

27:53

an interesting guy. I don't know what if

27:54

he should be the senator, but it was a

27:56

good discussion. I wish we could have

27:58

put it on the show where no one would

28:00

have watched it.

28:02

>> Uh CBS initially, they've been very

28:04

quiet lately, has been pushing back on

28:05

Cobar's version of events, saying the

28:07

show was not prohibited from airing the

28:08

Telerico and UNV, but was given legal

28:11

guidance and options. I've been in that

28:13

sphere. Coar took issue with that

28:15

statement, calling it crap, and it

28:16

indeed is crap. All of this has been a

28:19

major boost for Telerico who raised more

28:21

than $2.5 million uh dollars in the

28:23

first 24 hours after the interview went

28:24

on YouTube. Uh Brandon Carr, the [ __ ]

28:27

is calling it a hoax, by the way, saying

28:29

Telerico did this for the purpose of

28:30

raising money and getting clicks. Except

28:32

he then uh on this interview he did, I

28:35

think it was on Fox, uh said, "Oh, I

28:36

would have enforced it." So, he said he

28:38

would have done what they what what Coar

28:40

said he would have done. Um and then

28:42

also noted that this fair this this the

28:45

way he's in trying to thinking about

28:47

enforcing this equal time rule has not

28:50

been done in forever. So he just

28:52

admitted every calling it a hoax and

28:54

then admitted he was going to do exactly

28:55

what they said he was going to do.

28:57

Again, a [ __ ] Um and he thought this

29:00

is like some story like and I love Co

29:02

Bear I think is handling it beautifully.

29:04

I don't think he's being too virtue

29:05

signalally, but it is definitely a nail

29:07

in the coffin for broadcast television.

29:10

>> Yeah. Just to step back and try and

29:12

understand the real dynamics and the the

29:14

the shape of power here because we've

29:17

moved from a democracy and capitalism to

29:19

an autocracy and kletocracy. This is

29:21

what's going on. The president has made

29:23

it clear he will exercise his authority

29:26

unilaterally and illegally in my view to

29:29

decide who gets to acquire which

29:31

companies. And essentially he has

29:35

decided that okay um if the Ellison's

29:40

who own Paramount and CBS

29:44

fly their partisan proTrump flag, I will

29:48

figure out a way to get them Time

29:50

Warner. And so they are very sensitive

29:53

to trying to not offend him, plate him,

29:56

do whatever he wants regardless of the

29:58

First Amendment. And the the excuse

30:01

they're using is the following. The

30:04

FCC's equal time rule is a federal law

30:06

that requires broadcast stations to

30:08

provide equivalent air time to all

30:11

legally qualified candidates for the

30:12

same political office.

30:15

That theoretically makes sense, right?

30:18

Historically though, the FCC has

30:21

exempted many entertainment talk shows

30:24

and now they've decided to update this

30:26

and they're selectively enforcing it.

30:27

And by the way, folks, curiously, FCC

30:30

Chairman Carr has not yet attempted to

30:32

apply these rules to any conservative

30:36

talk shows.

30:37

>> He's he's sued the he's he's

30:38

investigating The View just on ABC for

30:41

having

30:42

>> The View and Coar,

30:43

>> by the way, has had Jasmine Crockett on

30:46

and probably asked right-wing people.

30:48

>> This is so ridiculous. But this is what

30:50

has happened. There's a decent chance

30:52

that FCC Chair Carr has given uh

30:57

Representative Taler Rico a decent shot

31:00

at being a senator in Texas. Now,

31:03

>> this has done nothing but bolster Torico

31:06

raised $2.5 million in the subsequent 48

31:09

hours. The

31:10

>> the big loser here is the FCC and Trump.

31:14

This has backfired. This is blown up in

31:16

their face. The Ellison, the Ellison's

31:19

are now now sitting on top of a

31:22

collapsing asset,

31:23

>> right?

31:24

>> And in addition, the other loser here,

31:26

just quite frankly, is Jasmine Crockett

31:28

>> because she she came out, unfortunately,

31:33

this has elevated Terico and Colbear to

31:36

hero status. And Crockett wishes she was

31:39

the one that got, you know, that got

31:41

sort of blacklisted, right? Cuz they

31:44

were running neck andneck. And the

31:45

likelihood according to the prediction

31:47

markets that

31:49

>> well it wasn't quite neck and neck. It

31:50

was like 60 40 and now pretty close I

31:53

think.

31:54

>> No no the prediction markets were he was

31:56

winning quite substantively but not as

31:58

much.

31:59

>> He went from 63 to 77.

32:02

>> Yeah. Right. That's that's

32:03

>> 63 is a lot. Right. That's

32:07

I mean that's basically when you're at

32:10

77 it's kind of said or it's getting to

32:13

the point where it looks like the race

32:15

may be over.

32:16

>> There's also early voting going on and

32:17

Democratic voting is alltime high. It's

32:20

crazy high and it's surpassing

32:21

Republicans. I'm going to link it

32:22

speaking of the Ellison's one two

32:24

things. Warner Brothers Discovery this

32:27

let me just tell you David maybe this

32:28

media thing isn't your best look. Warner

32:31

Brothers Discovery is reopening

32:32

negotiations with Paramount for the best

32:34

and final offer, but the clock is

32:36

ticking. Netflix has granted Warner a

32:37

seven-day waiver for these Paramount

32:39

talks. The deadline is February 23rd. Uh

32:41

Zazov wrote to Paramount's board that

32:44

David Zazov, who's the CEO, Warner, uh

32:46

welcomes the opportunity to see whether

32:47

the company can expeditiously deliver a

32:49

proposal that provides superior value,

32:51

meaning he's not calling it superior

32:53

value. Paramount has indicated it will

32:55

raise its bid to $31 a share and has

32:57

agreed to cover Warner's $2.5 billion

32:59

breakup fee owed uh to Netflix, which it

33:01

should have done in the first [ __ ]

33:02

place. A lot of these things they've

33:03

just agreed to, they should have done

33:05

months ago. Uh Netflix CE co-CEO Ted

33:08

Sandos explained why he agreed to this

33:09

in an interview with CNBC. Let's listen.

33:12

>> We gave them the opportunity to get

33:14

those shareholders exactly what they

33:16

deserve, which is complete clarity and

33:18

certainty about what the value of these

33:20

deals are. What we're certain is is that

33:22

the Netflix deal to acquire these assets

33:24

is the best deal creates generates the

33:26

best value for their shareholders and

33:28

they think so too. That's why they

33:30

recommended the deal and why they

33:31

reiterated recommending that deal post

33:33

this. So give them seven days to put

33:35

their money where their mouth is.

33:36

>> He's so smart. I got to say the other

33:38

part before you go in um uh they have to

33:42

they have to basically they have to give

33:43

more money. Really that's if they give

33:45

more money they'll probably get it. That

33:46

said, there's been a really, you know,

33:48

even though most of the narrative has

33:49

been anti-Netflix with Paramount has

33:51

done quite a bit of the making that

33:53

happen. Uh, this idea that they will

33:55

have to cut uh Paramount will be

33:57

disastrous because they're going to have

33:59

to cut because of the finances here.

34:01

They will they will decimate um

34:03

employment in Hollywood and Netflix will

34:05

not there both of them face different

34:08

challenges uh both regulatory and what's

34:11

going to happen. Warner Brothers has

34:12

scheduled the shareholder vote on the

34:14

Netflix deal from March 20th. Um, we'll

34:16

see what happens. Uh, David Ellison was

34:18

at the White House last week, by the

34:20

way. This after Trump said in an

34:21

interview he wasn't involved in the

34:22

deal. Who knows? Um, and let me link

34:25

this to Anderson Cooper. He's leaving 60

34:27

Minutes, which is a CBS property after

34:29

20 years. Uh, he's still at CNN, of

34:32

course. He signed a big deal with an $18

34:33

million deal with them recently. So if

34:36

this deal works out for parent, they

34:38

could take Warner's cable properties and

34:39

right find himself back. The reason he

34:42

did so was he said he was to spend time

34:44

with his family. He didn't want to work

34:45

with Barry Weiss. That I know this to be

34:47

true. Um he didn't like where 60 Minutes

34:50

was going and he he also didn't like

34:52

what was happening to his colleagues.

34:53

He's a he's a great journalist and he

34:56

just didn't want to work with these

34:57

people. So because he thinks I I would

35:00

assume he thinks they're lesser than and

35:01

and they are compared to him. So, uh,

35:04

another high-profile exit, not just

35:06

Anderson, Taylor Sheridan left, uh, who

35:09

does Yellowstone. Um, a lot of messes

35:12

there, both in the news division and

35:14

obviously with Coar. He's he'll be

35:15

leaving in May. Uh, your thoughts on on

35:18

these two things with the Ellisons. They

35:20

seem to be really, they may still win

35:22

it, but boy, they

35:23

>> First off, the way this is supposed to

35:25

work in a capitalist society is the

35:27

person who shows up with the biggest bag

35:29

of money gets preliminary approval by

35:32

the shareholders and then it goes under

35:34

regulatory review to make sure that

35:35

there's not too great a concentration of

35:36

power.

35:37

>> In my view, neither of these companies

35:40

should be able to acquire Warner

35:41

Brothers because it's too much

35:42

concentration of power. Having said

35:44

that,

35:45

>> this is the world we live in. One of

35:46

them is going to get it. What's

35:48

interesting is that it's clearly now

35:49

such a kleptocracy

35:52

that on Khi the likelihood that

35:54

Paramount takes over WBB WBD because it

35:57

has become obvious that the president's

35:59

is doing the Ellison's bidding is now

36:02

53% and Netflix's odds have fallen to

36:05

just 36%.

36:08

So

36:10

>> neck to neck on poly market just so you

36:12

know but

36:12

>> Paramount has sweetened the deal. They

36:14

agreed to pay $2.8 8 billion fee the WB

36:17

WBD would owe Netflix if the merger

36:20

agreement falls apart. They also added a

36:23

uh ticking fee of 25 cents per share

36:25

paid to Warner shareholders for every

36:27

quarter that the deal isn't closed

36:28

starting next year and the total cash

36:30

bid was raised to 78 billion back in

36:33

December. Here's what I don't

36:35

understand.

36:37

the union SAG After and the Writers

36:40

Guild decide to strike at exactly the

36:44

wrong moment a couple couple years ago

36:47

and basically took everyone had everyone

36:50

not work for seven months in order to

36:52

get nothing in exchange when they they

36:55

decided to strike at a weak point and

36:57

yet now

36:59

you just referenced this if the

37:01

Ellison's own they've already overpaid

37:04

for Paramount which looks to be through

37:06

a serious I call it a leaky yacht,

37:09

>> which looks to be just one after the

37:11

other creating self-inflicted wounds

37:13

that they just unforced errors, ungoals,

37:16

whatever you want to call it, that are

37:17

substantially

37:18

reducing the equity value and showing

37:21

how much they did in fact overpay.

37:23

Whether it's CBS News going from 5

37:25

million viewers to 4 million in one week

37:27

after the anchor transition,

37:30

60 Minutes might go away. I mean, these

37:32

things literally

37:33

>> Why would you stick Why would you poke

37:35

that in the eye? that actually was

37:36

successful. Oh,

37:38

>> so they've overpaid for Paramount.

37:41

They're probably going to have to

37:42

overpay, and I understand why the

37:44

rationale for Warner such they can get

37:46

something resembling consolidation. But

37:48

hey, hey, writer's guild. Hey, Saga.

37:51

What the [ __ ] do you think Ellison, one

37:55

of the largest providers of inference

37:58

and compute for AI, what do you think

38:00

their idea is going to be to rationalize

38:04

costs and somehow get a return on

38:07

investment here? What do you think is

38:08

going to h say what you want about Ted

38:10

Sarandos? He's a disciplined operator.

38:12

He likes the old Hollywood model.

38:14

>> He likes

38:15

>> Well, some of it some of it he likes,

38:16

some of it he doesn't. Yeah, but he's

38:18

not. Oh my god,

38:19

>> he's they've got the theater owners in

38:21

there.

38:21

>> Compared compared to Larry Ellison.

38:24

>> Agreed.

38:25

>> He is in love with those makeup artists

38:28

and those

38:29

>> Larry Ellison is going to leave you

38:31

Hollywood people naked without

38:33

>> He's going to say, "I have an idea.

38:35

>> Going to I know them. You know,

38:36

>> let's take let's take the 40 movie

38:38

release with an average budget of $140

38:41

million

38:42

>> and let's do 60 million. Let's do 60

38:45

movies at 14 million each using AI.

38:48

>> That's right.

38:48

>> And where do those where do those cost

38:50

efficiencies come from?

38:52

>> That's correct.

38:53

>> Instead of having 18 costume designers

38:55

on the Fantastic 5, they're going to

38:57

have one in an enic layer.

38:59

>> And by the way, it'll probably be AI

39:02

slop. I don't think it'll work.

39:07

Warner Brothers film unit

39:14

production cost by 40% and it's all

39:16

going to come out of and where the [ __ ]

39:18

are I can't believe the unions aren't

39:20

like

39:21

>> it's Netflix or we are not

39:23

>> I think you're finally right about these

39:25

unions. I mean I I think it's not great.

39:27

Listen listen the theater issue is a big

39:29

one but you know what consumers don't

39:30

like the theaters as much. Listen to

39:32

consumers. It's not because that tech

39:35

did something. They did. They gave them

39:37

an alternative that consumer. We all

39:39

have our own theater now. It's at home.

39:40

What they should be caring about is the

39:42

economic livelihood of the people

39:43

actually producing the content.

39:44

>> Correct. But the issue is the expenses.

39:46

Like I was just as I said I did this

39:48

heated rivalry interview. I mean they

39:49

made that show which is an enormous hit

39:52

for which is by the way on HBO Max uh

39:55

for two two million to3.5 million an

39:59

episode. Stranger Things 50 to60 million

40:02

dollars an episode. I mean, and the

40:04

government helped pay for it. There's no

40:05

way our government's gonna help pay for

40:07

a gay hockey love story. But that said,

40:10

it's the economics are changing so

40:12

drastically, you don't even have to use

40:13

AI to understand you need to change the

40:15

economics. And let me tell you in no

40:18

uncertain terms, having covered Larry

40:20

Ellison for 30 years, he is going to do

40:23

what it takes. He is has no

40:26

sentimentality toward anything except

40:28

making more money and so he will do

40:31

whatever it takes and that includes

40:33

squeezing all of you and for his for his

40:36

benefit and I know David loves movies

40:39

etc etc but at some point uh this is not

40:42

a romantic fantasy of saving Hollywood

40:44

it's not that's what kills me and here's

40:47

the here's the thing I don't think the I

40:49

think the elins have misplayed this so

40:50

badly they've taken too long they should

40:52

have done all those things they just

40:54

agreed to months ago uh to make it

40:56

better. They should have increased the

40:58

price if they really wanted it. They're

41:00

they're being very cute here and all

41:02

they do is attack Netflix. They are very

41:05

prime for attack. And then meanwhile

41:07

over at CBS we're getting a preview of

41:10

their shitty management and their shitty

41:12

decisions whether it's Taylor Sher

41:14

Taylor Sheridan which I thought was in

41:16

massive miss Anderson Anderson Cooper

41:19

who you may end up buying the Ellison's

41:22

man buying and being his boss he cares

41:25

so little for them he's willing to quit

41:27

60 minutes and he's going to whatever

41:31

happens if they get if they become his

41:33

boss that's how much he doesn't like

41:34

them. He know he they could they could

41:37

end up being his boss in 15 minutes.

41:39

That that should tell you everything

41:42

about it is quality people don't want to

41:44

be affiliated with it. So I listen I

41:46

agree probably this consolidation is a

41:49

problem and and there probably was a

41:51

better

41:53

I don't know what the better deal here.

41:54

I thought the spin-off was the best idea

41:56

for now and then later they could sell

41:57

the film studio. That's was my feeling.

42:00

That was my feeling on the whole thing.

42:02

Um, but this is where it's headed and

42:04

the Ellison's are showing you exactly

42:07

how they manage a property and you

42:09

should pay attention to it.

42:10

>> I for the life of me, I can't figure out

42:11

why the unions haven't come out and

42:13

said, "If Paramount gets this, we're

42:15

out."

42:16

>> Yep.

42:16

>> We're out.

42:17

>> We're good luck. Good luck managing this

42:19

thing. Day one, day one after this

42:22

closes, we're shutting the whole [ __ ]

42:24

thing down.

42:24

>> Well,

42:25

>> no TV production, no attention to

42:27

people. You know, they offered Anderson

42:29

Cooper a fortune to run to be the head

42:31

of the to be the face of 60 Minutes and

42:33

he even he couldn't do business with

42:35

them. So, I'm just saying a lot of

42:37

money, you know, and by the way, he

42:40

should spend more time with his kids,

42:41

but that's not what happened here.

42:42

Anyway, although I think it's partial.

42:44

I'm sure that's partial. So, anyway, uh

42:46

let's go on a quick break. When we come

42:48

back, we'll talk about the Pentagon's

42:50

fight with anthropic. This is something

42:51

else.

42:53

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44:02

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44:06

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45:15

Scott, we're back with more news.

45:17

There's so much news, it's all

45:18

different. The Pentagon is considering

45:19

cutting ties with Anthropic amid a

45:21

dispute over how Claude can be used by

45:23

the military. Anthropic wants limits on

45:25

uses like for weaponry that fires

45:26

without human input and mass uh this

45:30

domestic surveillance seems reasonable,

45:31

but the Pentagon wants access for all

45:33

lawful purposes. Open a Google and XA

45:36

have agreed to have models deployed in

45:37

unlawful use cases. In principle, Pete

45:40

Hexath is reportedly also considering

45:41

labeling anthropic supply chain risk

45:43

which could force contractors seeking to

45:45

work with the US military to stop using

45:47

claws. Senior Pentagon official said the

45:49

change will be a pain in the ass and the

45:51

Pentagon would make sure Anthropic pays

45:53

a price. Pete is a [ __ ] idiot. He

45:56

just actually let go of someone who has

45:57

an incredible um he forced out this

46:00

colonel who had this incredible record

46:02

cuz just cuz he's competent. Um really

46:06

interesting. There was just a picture

46:08

from I think it was India where the

46:09

anthropic CEO and Sam Alman wouldn't

46:11

hold hands for a second together which

46:13

was funny. They're in a big beef but

46:15

that's a separate beef. Um, this is

46:17

really interesting. I'd love to know

46:19

what you think about this because

46:20

they're not they're standing firm. It

46:22

looks like anthropic is like we're not

46:23

going to be used, you know, to attack

46:25

humans without a human intervention or

46:28

domestic surveillance, etc.

46:30

>> Yeah. So, the the Pentagon, they're

46:32

threatening to they're threatening to

46:34

sever its $200 million relationship with

46:36

Anthropic.

46:37

>> Not big. Not too big

46:39

>> because the AI firm insists on

46:40

maintaining limitations on how the

46:42

military uses their LLM. uh anthropics

46:45

red lines are no mass surveillance of

46:48

Americans and no fully autonomous

46:50

weaponry. Right? So,

46:53

but this is yet another example

46:57

of

46:59

a a loss of capitalism. This is

47:02

technically a very severe form of

47:03

socialism and that is the state has

47:06

decided they control the means of

47:08

production. private companies are

47:10

allowed to have their own guidelines and

47:12

if those guidelines mean they can't work

47:14

with a military contractor they they get

47:16

to make that decision.

47:18

So this is and them trying to shame them

47:20

and threaten them economically

47:22

is the worst type of socialism. So all

47:26

of these quoteunquote free market people

47:29

claiming this is private companies

47:34

Vox gets to decide if it doesn't want to

47:36

work with the Pentagon.

47:39

And so

47:41

if they sign a contract, fine, they have

47:43

to live up to their contract. But the

47:45

fact that Anthropic has these

47:47

guidelines, I again think this is a bit

47:49

of a cold bear moment for Anthropic. And

47:52

that is Anthropic has starts their hat

47:54

white in an environment where the

47:56

majority of Americans feel really uneasy

47:59

about AI. So, Anthropic has sort of

48:02

positioned itself as the clean, well-lit

48:04

corner of the bookstore here,

48:06

>> like Apple and privacy or Apple and not

48:09

>> 100%. We're the good guys.

48:12

>> Mhm.

48:13

>> And so, I I I as we sit here today, I

48:16

actually think that Anthropic or in the

48:18

next 12 months, this one of our

48:20

predictions is going to be worth more

48:21

than open AI. But this is a win for

48:25

anthropic and another example of the

48:27

government deciding they get to dictate.

48:31

They're not breaking the law. The

48:33

government gets to dictate visav laws

48:34

that okay, you can't discriminate based

48:36

on someone's sexual orientation, race,

48:38

ethnicity, gender, whatever. They can

48:40

enforce that. There's no law saying that

48:43

if you're a company that doesn't want to

48:45

engage in mass surveillance of citizens

48:47

that you're you have to work with the

48:49

government. that there this is this is

48:52

socialism gone arry. This is market

48:55

intervention where there shouldn't be

48:57

any. And when it comes from on Pentagon

48:59

stationary, I mean they might as well

49:01

just have had Donald Trump sign this. I

49:03

think this is actually going to be

49:05

>> it's a text will you do what I say.

49:08

>> It's a col bear moment. Daario Emodi is

49:11

being like Colar and sticking up the

49:13

middle finger and a lot of enterprises

49:15

and a lot of consumers are going to go,

49:16

you know, I like a company that refuses

49:18

to engage in mass mass surveillance of

49:21

its own citizens.

49:22

>> Yeah, I think this is a good Anyway,

49:23

we'll see. Pete Hag says, you're also a

49:25

[ __ ] Anyway, um one more quick break.

49:28

We'll be back for predictions.

49:32

>> Support for today's show comes from

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51:34

>> Okay, Scott, we're going to talk about

51:35

predictions, but first, um, I have one

51:38

prediction I'm going to make, but I'm

51:39

going want to do this first. The US

51:41

military is moving into place for a

51:43

possible Iran strike. probably because

51:44

this Webpstein stuff is getting hot

51:46

again for Trump as early as this

51:48

weekend. Scott, let's hear what you said

51:50

in January.

51:51

>> Bottom line is my prediction is that I

51:54

think we're about to see the US conduct

51:56

a military strike on Iran.

51:59

>> Now, you thought it was pretty quickly,

52:00

but the state uh but but it's happening

52:03

possibly this weekend. There's they've

52:04

they've amassed an enormous amount of

52:07

military might in the region, probably I

52:10

think more than when they were doing the

52:11

last war, they were over there. So it's

52:14

that this the things are in place, the

52:16

battleships are in place. You do you

52:17

want to talk about that or do you have a

52:18

different prediction?

52:19

>> Oh, no. I I think it's on and and let me

52:22

be clear. I like this. I would like to

52:24

see I think the Islamic Republic is one

52:28

of the most misogynistic, brutal regimes

52:30

in the world right now. And I think Iran

52:32

has the cap the potential uh to be an

52:35

outstanding ally. And I think if and

52:38

there's a lot of unknowns here. regime

52:40

change, you know, brings its own risk

52:42

>> and why he's doing it at this moment.

52:44

But go ahead.

52:45

>> But he can be doing it for the wrong

52:46

reasons and can still have a good

52:48

outcome. I'm I'm absolutely 100% in

52:50

favor of this. And I think that Iran uh

52:52

being quote unquote

52:55

just less oppressive, less brutal, will

52:57

be really good for the region and really

52:59

especially good for the women of Iran

53:01

>> if they can complete what they need to

53:04

complete. If they just don't and they

53:06

just beat them up again and then leave,

53:08

it's a different issue.

53:10

>> I think the regime the regime is hobbled

53:12

and I think this could tip it over. I

53:14

not to get in too much in the Jesus, I

53:15

think they need to coordinate with the

53:16

MSAD and have agents on the ground and

53:18

do a series of of targeted executions

53:21

quite frankly or assassinations.

53:23

Execution is the wrong word.

53:24

Assassinations.

53:25

But I'm a I'm a huge I'm a huge

53:29

proponent of this. If you look at troop

53:32

movements, whether it's refueling

53:33

planes, supply chain cargo, aircraft

53:35

carriers, uh, specialized operations

53:38

troops, they are either playing serious

53:40

poker or they are about to do this

53:43

imminently.

53:44

>> They kind of have to, right? And Trump's

53:46

probably in the mood. I think that I

53:47

think the other factor here is he has a

53:50

State of the Union on Tuesday. I think

53:52

he can't complete a state of the union.

53:53

I just

53:55

>> He also he also wanted to distract from

53:57

the Epstein files.

53:58

>> Epstein files. loves he loves the macho

54:00

flex of what happened in Venezuela. This

54:03

he thinks is going to be part two

54:05

>> which didn't last too long.

54:07

>> And also Rubio positions himself for

54:09

president with these types of actions.

54:11

And Rubio is probably whispering in his

54:13

ear this would be a great move for us.

54:15

Uh I I'll be very curious how our allies

54:18

in the region what they think of this.

54:20

But I I think it's on and I have think I

54:23

have thought if you just look if you

54:24

just track um uh troop movements, ship

54:28

movements, supply chain movements. I

54:31

mean we are moving a lot of stuff to the

54:34

region and we are sort of we are ready

54:36

to go. We are at the starting line.

54:38

>> Yeah, he'll cancel the state of the

54:39

union would be my guess. If this is

54:41

happening thought of that

54:42

>> um and I don't think he can complete

54:43

one. I don't I think he is quite losing

54:47

it as you know in some fashion. I'm not

54:49

so sure he's he's I think I know he

54:52

seems vibrant, but I I suspect that it's

54:54

there's problems around that. Um that's

54:56

just me. Uh one the only prediction I

54:59

would say is today uh Wired published a

55:02

story about uh the gay mafia in Silicon

55:04

Valley. They had written me about it and

55:05

I was like there's no such thing. There

55:07

just isn't. Sorry.

55:08

>> Gay mafia.

55:09

>> Yeah, I know. It's the it's a story that

55:11

they wanted to work on. They had

55:12

contacted me years ago about it and

55:13

they're like let's talk about you and

55:15

the game. I'm like there is no I don't

55:16

have friends with Kim Cook. There's no

55:18

gay mafia. There's I mean, sorry, but I

55:21

thought it was a silly idea and I still

55:22

think it is. And I have to say I think

55:24

they're going to get a lot of push back

55:25

for the illustration which shows uh two

55:28

hands coming out of two crotches, one

55:30

with a with a rainbow, you know, Apple

55:34

watch on uh but the penises are hands

55:36

and they're shaking. So, I thought that

55:39

was so [ __ ] insulting to gay people.

55:41

I'm sorry, guys. That was a terrible

55:44

illustration. Like I don't usually I

55:45

usually laugh at most like jokes about

55:47

gays, but oh my god, you don't have to

55:50

have, you know, penis.

55:51

>> Well, there's definitely no gay mafia,

55:52

but it's obvious that Jews run the

55:53

world. I mean,

55:54

>> right?

55:56

>> What the [ __ ] But why do you have penis

55:58

hands? We don't need penis hands.

56:00

>> Yeah. Just speaking along those lines,

56:01

George Han pointed out something that

56:02

really struck me as very insightful.

56:04

>> I think they're going to get in trouble

56:05

for it. That's my prediction because

56:06

it's stupid and it's really offensive

56:08

and I don't usually get offended. So

56:09

that's my meter. But go ahead. We

56:10

referenced Heated Rivalry before and he

56:12

said the thing he loved about Heated

56:13

Rivalry and it just struck me as so true

56:15

is that he felt it was the first time

56:18

>> that not one but both gay men were

56:20

depicted as just incredibly high

56:22

performance good-looking functional

56:26

>> like impressive men. One wasn't one

56:28

wasn't neurotic or quote unquote very

56:30

flamboyant or one wasn't struggling with

56:32

some they're just both really impressive

56:35

men and I I literally tick through every

56:38

depiction of gay romance and he's right

56:42

there's usually one person that feels

56:43

>> lesbians have gotten a better shake

56:45

recently

56:45

>> kagy and lacy

56:47

>> no lord and things like that um but yes

56:50

I agree with you I agree there's a great

56:51

book that I recommended vto Russo the

56:53

celluloid closet is a history of how

56:56

gays were depicted it uh and it it it

56:58

continues to this day and for gay men

57:00

they do not get as much complexity as

57:02

these two. I'd agree with you. Yep.

57:04

Absolutely.

57:05

>> Well, a certain extent the Epstein the

57:07

Epstein class has sort of diminished the

57:09

comfortable notion that gay people are

57:11

more inclined to be pedophiles. No, it's

57:13

it's rich white dudes that seem to be

57:14

more inclined.

57:16

>> Rich straight white dudes.

57:18

>> Yeah. And let me tell you, go straight

57:20

to hell for doing anyone who did that

57:21

should go straight to hell. Anyway, on

57:23

that note, um, uh, and no more penis

57:26

penis handshakes. Anyway, uh, we want

57:29

wired. I love you, Katie, but

57:31

>> I don't get a prediction. You're just

57:32

rolling right.

57:33

>> You just did that. No, no, go ahead. No,

57:35

now you have another one. Go ahead.

57:35

>> What was my prediction? I

57:37

>> military Iran.

57:39

>> Well, I made that one a month ago.

57:40

>> All right. Okay. What's your new I want

57:42

to say? You just I feel hurt. I feel

57:43

shamed. Okay, go ahead.

57:44

>> Okay, fine. We're bombing Iran. Never

57:46

mind.

57:46

>> No, go ahead. No. What's your

57:48

prediction? Well, I don't know if you've

57:50

noticed, but about $1 trillion

57:53

in value has been destroyed amongst the

57:55

biggest AI players since the beginning

57:57

of the year

57:58

>> as you were noting they would

57:59

>> and what's interesting about it is I

58:02

mean a few things need to happen needed

58:03

to happen either revenues needed to like

58:05

even jump more to justify the the

58:08

massive capex and that didn't happen. So

58:11

their stocks have come down. What's

58:13

really interesting in my opinion is that

58:15

what also happened though is that people

58:17

still think these technologies

58:19

um I mean just an example Amazon's off

58:21

14%. Microsoft's off 17%. B Apple

58:26

>> Apple has dropped Amazon's had its worst

58:28

couple weeks in a in several years.

58:31

>> Yeah, they've lost

58:33

500 billion.

58:35

>> They've lost a lot. Um, so but what's

58:38

also interesting is there's been a

58:39

trillion dollar wipeout at SAS companies

58:41

and that was when Enthropic unveiled its

58:44

uh Claude Co-work uh legal automation

58:47

tool.

58:48

>> It triggered uh what traders at Jeffre

58:51

immediately christened the SAS

58:53

apocalypse erasing approximately 285

58:56

billion in market cap in a single

58:57

trading day.

58:58

>> Software companies. Yeah. The general

59:00

notion is that people aren't going to

59:02

need that basically you're going to be

59:04

able to write a prompt and you'll be

59:05

able to replace Adobe, Salesforce,

59:07

Service Now.

59:08

>> Yeah.

59:09

>> And that these companies have been fat

59:10

and happy for 30 or 40 years.

59:12

>> Yeah, they have.

59:12

>> And these companies So

59:14

>> this one I agree with.

59:16

>> Well, it's interesting because

59:18

Salesforce is off 25%.

59:21

Uh Adobe is off 25 to 30% this year.

59:25

Intuitit is now down 34%. It's lost a

59:29

third of its value year to date. Now my

59:31

view and this is and this is my

59:34

prediction is that

59:36

these companies are much more deeply

59:40

integrated into their corporate

59:42

customers than people believe. And even

59:43

if you can write the code really

59:46

efficiently and quickly without their

59:48

technical staff at these companies,

59:50

their technical staff is only 10 to 20%

59:52

of their employees.

59:54

So they have they have really powerful

59:56

UI, they have client service, they have

59:58

client management, they have integrated

60:00

billing, they they are so deep into

60:03

these companies that I think rumors of

60:05

the death of these companies has been

60:06

vastly exaggerated. And as a multiple of

60:08

free cash flow, these companies have

60:11

never traded at a lower multiple. In

60:13

addition, if you actually look at the

60:16

>> opportunity is what you're saying

60:17

>> 100%. If you actually look at their

60:19

revenues and their margins, there is

60:22

absolutely no evidence whatsoever that

60:25

AI is hurting them. None whatsoever.

60:28

>> Yeah.

60:28

>> So my prediction is that a basket

60:32

>> a basket of stocks Adobe

60:35

>> Figma Service Now Salesforce that

60:39

they're going to have um great returns

60:41

from here on out. I think

60:42

>> especially if they integrate the AI

60:44

features in in a way that's helpful to

60:47

people, right? That's what it it I find

60:50

them like I what what's interesting is

60:53

and I think we should talk about this

60:54

Monday, this fight between open and I

60:56

just hired um a very significant person

60:58

from from Instagram, Charles Porch,

61:01

who's really talented talent relations.

61:03

Um Figma did a deal with Claude, you

61:06

know, uh Open AI got a hold of OpenClaw,

61:10

right? It's really interesting what's

61:12

happening. It starts to become what's

61:13

actually useful and who takes advantage

61:15

of the utility. Correct. And some of

61:18

Adobe could do it, right? They could

61:19

easily make their product 100 times

61:22

better.

61:22

>> Well, just looking at it operationally,

61:25

say they spend 10 or 20% on programming

61:29

and that's no longer a a moat because AI

61:33

can come in and write the code just as

61:35

easily. These companies themselves could

61:37

reduce their cost by 10 or 20%. Shed

61:40

that technical staff quite frankly and

61:43

then pass on those savings to their end

61:45

consumer while not giving up any ibita

61:48

or margin. In other words, 80 80% of

61:50

their capex goes into things that or or

61:53

their expenditures goes into things that

61:55

AI is not challenging. AI is challenging

61:58

their technical mode, but AI is not

62:00

challenging the fact that

62:03

my even my shitty small companies were

62:05

all on Salesforce. The idea of someone

62:08

coming in and saying, "We'll give you

62:10

50% we'll we'll charge you 50% less."

62:12

I'm like, "Are you kidding? I just spent

62:13

the last [ __ ] year training everyone

62:15

how to use Salesforce, right? We're all

62:17

on it." if they give me more for

62:19

>> and I get invited to cool Salesforce

62:21

events and they give me research and the

62:23

nice attractive dude who used to play

62:25

football at Cornell shows up and he's

62:27

our Salesforce representative. These

62:29

these companies are much more deeply

62:31

integrated

62:32

>> into their client base even if if

62:34

there's a widget on anthropic that helps

62:37

you build the code that they offer. It's

62:39

just not that

62:40

>> there has to be an alternative stack is

62:42

what you're talking about that match

62:44

>> well did that it what it'll do though

62:46

these companies are smart what it'll do

62:47

first off I think these companies are

62:49

really fat and happy and there's a lot

62:50

of expense cutting that they they could

62:52

all endure my prediction is the

62:53

following I think the sale or the

62:56

decline on uh these these companies

62:59

Adobe Salesforce Service Now I I think

63:02

it's been overdone and that a basket of

63:05

the companies that have endured this SAS

63:07

apocalypse are going to are going to do

63:09

really Well, I think it's a great

63:10

investment because if you look at their

63:11

multiple on free cash flow, they've

63:13

never been lower. They've never been

63:14

cheaper. And I see absolutely no

63:16

evidence whatsoever that AI is reducing

63:19

their top line or their bottom line.

63:20

>> Greatly exaggerated.

63:22

>> That's exactly right.

63:23

>> All right. So, anyway, that's a great

63:24

one. I love that one. Um, I think you're

63:26

right. I think you're 100% right. We

63:27

want to hear from you. Send us your

63:28

questions about business, tech, or

63:30

whatever's on your mind. That was useful

63:31

for our listeners, Scott. Thank you. Go

63:34

to nymag.com/pivot

63:35

to submit a question for the show or

63:37

call 85551 pivot. Elsewhere in the Karen

63:40

Scott Universe this week on Profy

63:41

Markets. Scott spoke with Professor

63:43

Aswath Deotin, professor of finance at

63:46

NYU's Stern School of Business to

63:48

discuss why he's concerned that the

63:50

market is ignoring catastrophic risks.

63:52

After the second world war, we put

63:54

together an economic order centered

63:56

around the US and the US dollar and

63:58

that's coming apart and the market seems

64:00

to essentially be blowing back saying it

64:03

doesn't matter. We're we're going to

64:04

figure out a way and just like we did on

64:07

co and maybe that's part of what's going

64:10

on here is people are saying markets are

64:11

resilient enough they're going to find a

64:13

way even through this dramatic change in

64:16

how the global economy is run to find

64:18

the other side. There seems to be too

64:21

much of an acceptance that we'll figure

64:22

a way through this without serious pain.

64:25

>> Well, that's what they're like whistling

64:26

past the grave. That's great. He's so

64:28

smart. Otherwise, is so smart. Um, we

64:30

obviously didn't talk about RFK Jr. and

64:32

Kid Rock's exercise video.

64:34

>> I don't know how to feel about that.

64:36

>> We don't know how to feel about that. I

64:38

feel like if I watch that and then watch

64:40

Heated Rivalry, I might just explode

64:42

into an orgy of like

64:43

>> They said the worst the worst season of

64:45

Heated Rivalry was those two. Oh my god.

64:48

God. rage against.

64:50

>> Every time I see Kid Rock, I immediately

64:51

think, "How much Sudafed can I buy at a

64:53

CVS?

64:56

>> There's so much good stuff on the

64:57

internet about it." But remember, it's

64:59

your taxpayer dollars at work. Oh my

65:01

god, there's

65:03

>> a milk in a hot tub. That's all I have.

65:04

>> That's the workout video for single dads

65:06

who fight for child custody and then

65:07

never see their kids.

65:09

>> Thank you. Let's end on that. Okay,

65:11

that's the show. Thanks for listening to

65:12

Pivot. Be sure to like and subscribe to

65:15

our YouTube channel. We'll be back next

65:17

week.

Interactive Summary

The video discusses several current events and trends. It begins with a lighthearted exchange about baking, then delves into the arrest of Prince Andrew and its implications, linking it to the Epstein files and criticism of past investigations. The conversation shifts to the societal impact of social media, with a focus on a lawsuit against Meta regarding Instagram's effect on teen mental health. Mark Zuckerberg's testimony and Meta's internal research are highlighted. The segment on social media's addictiveness and negative impact is further extended to include Apple and other tech companies. The discussion then moves to the media industry, detailing the controversy surrounding Stephen Colbert's interview with James Telerico, CBS's response, and the potential impact on Telerico's political campaign. The potential acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery by Paramount or Netflix is analyzed, along with the financial strategies and industry shifts involved. Finally, the video touches on the Pentagon's dispute with Anthropic over AI usage, the market's reaction to AI companies, and concludes with predictions on the future of AI and tech stocks. It also briefly mentions potential military action against Iran and a variety of other topics like the 'gay mafia' in Silicon Valley and the depiction of gay men in media.

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