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are advantage and particularly that

we're not under the time pressure of the

Fed decides to have someone that's been

a foundation of our thinking about our

central bank and bills notes and bonds.

Bob Michael joins us now. CIO, head of G

GFIC.

What? What?

>> Global fixed income currency and

commodities. Got them all. Got them all.

G.

>> He attended every restaurant in the new

building and they gave him that

honorarium. JP Morgan Investment

Management. Do you know what worse

strategy is yet?

>> Other than to set up task forces, it's

not clear. How long will it take based

on the history of central bankers?

Powell for example.

>> Um we think his hand will be forced

sooner than he likes it. Clearly by

having the task force come back at year

end. He wants to glide into 2027 without

having to do much. But the markets move,

the economy moves. Uh the summers tend

to be a crucible of intensity. Uh so we

think by the September meeting he's

going to have a plan. I got to get I got

to get this in. It's too important.

Paul's got a million smart questions.

I'm assuming James Diamond hates task

forces with a passion. What do you

expect to get out of a task force plural

from the Fed?

>> Well, it depends who's leading them and

who's on them. I think they'll come back

with very thoughtful ideas. Um, in the

end, you don't set up task forces unless

you already know the answer. So he he

knows the answer. It's just a matter of

seeing if he can pin it on the task

force or just go ahead and say do it

this way.

>> Bronze it folks what you just heard

there. Absolutely perfect.

>> Tom, I don't want to say Bob is old

here, but let's just say been around the

block once or twice. Look at this note.

The US bond market looks fair value. We

expect a 10-year US Treasury to trade

between 4 and 1/8 and 4 and 5/8. He's

quoting great fraction. I mean, who does

that anymore? But Bob Michael, talk to

us about that 10-year. I mean, it it

feels like we are where we are, and

that's kind of where the market feels

pretty comfortable here. Um, what do we

do here with in with rates here where

where they are?

>> Well, in 2 and 1/2 months, we went from

390 to to close to 470 and and both of

those proved to be extremes. We're

somewhere in the middle. We're pricing

in one possibly two Fed rate hikes. I

think four and 58 covers you for two

rate hikes. I think when you get down to

four and an eighth, probably you don't

have enough yield in the market to cover

you for a rate hike or two. Um so we're

saying the bond market looks pretty

good. Uh right now it has a repricing.

Uh the Fed, if they come in and lean

into growth and inflation pressures,

they don't need to do a lot. Maybe one

or two maintenance hikes, join the other

central banks, but that's about it. How

much credit risk are you taking these

days in your

>> We're taking a lot. We had our

investment quarterly last week. We

tried, as bond investors do, to poke

holes in the economy and prove that

either it's about to collapse or or melt

up in a fireball of growth and

inflation. And instead, what we saw is

that businesses are rationally putting

together capex plans. There's a lot

going on. When we think about sovereigns

away from the US, they're also thinking

about investing. Everyone wants energy

security. Everyone wants defense of

their borders. Everyone has to invest in

AI. So these are things that will keep

the underlying trend rate of the global

economy going.

>> Does that include emerging markets as

well?

>> Well, emerging markets are the pleasant

surprise of the year so far. Um, here is

yet another shock that they survive.

They survived the Fed's 525 basis point

rate hikes never happened before. They

survived CO um and now they're uh

surviving an oil shock. Um it's a little

bit more nuanced. We had owned the

energy exporters. We've now gone back to

the importers. Uh but when you look at

the way China was able to cut imports of

oil and repurpose how they get energy,

it it tells us that the emerging markets

are have maybe have developed faster

than we want to give the term emerging

markets credit for.

>> Well, that's across America and

worldwide. Bob Michael of JP Morgan here

uh perspective from Bill's notes and

bonds of course dragging it over to the

equity markets as well. So I skim Foli

weekly prospects comes out every Friday

evening. I've got to pause with a

beverage of my choice Paul to read Foli

and the team. Okay.

>> Uh and what to say and I'm sorry it's a

pretty balanced view and I'm hearing

from you a balanced view. Bill Aman is

out today with a retweet of a plus+ on

hyperscalers from a guy out of Unicredit

in Slovenia. is well there's all this

heat this ferment this this this this

smoke and mirrors debate about AI you

guys are doing business in it how are

the bonds the debt of AI hyperscalers

being digested by the public well so far

they've been digested pretty well I

think we've all seen when a new

technology revolution comes along it's

not all over in one or two years it

tends to run for a decade and the first

half of that decade is where the capex

um gets invested and the second half is

where you get the payback, right? Um the

hyperscalers have very pristine balance

sheet. So the amount of debt that

they're adding is hardly noticeable on

their leverage metrics.

>> Do you look at them as a tunch now, an

initial gazillion dollar tunch and then

there'll be a second one into 27 and a

third. You mean is it going to stagger

forward 20 here, 20 there, 20 down the

road? Well, you look at what some of

them have raised and you wonder where it

is other than sitting in cash or some

sort of short duration account because

they aren't fully spent yet. So, yeah,

it's possible they'll be back next year.

I think they have to start spending what

they've raised so far and that takes

some time.

>> How do you think about all this

technology

debt coming to the marketplace? because

this is these companies haven't

historically been in your market raising

capital. Um but it seems to have been

wellreceived so far. We're impressed

because certainly you get worried that

trillions of dollars of debt um could

overwhelm the market. When we look at

the um Bloomberg aggregate bond index,

it's 40 trillion. So a couple trillion

here is not a lot of money. It's maybe

about 5% and that couple trillion will

come in over 3 or 4 years. We've also

been impressed about how intelligent the

hyperscalers have been. They've

diversified across markets. They've

issued some in euros, some in Canada

dollars. There will be some in Mexico

peso uh and some in Japanese yen. And

then they've gone to some hybrid

structures uh to finance the data

centers. So JP Morgan gets 500,000

applications for summer roles.

>> Oh wow.

>> And they weed it out with an acceptance

rate frankly under 1% to 4,000 summer

interns. Bob Michaels got to wander into

a room with a bunch of emotional,

really, really smart, really competent

kids. What's your first message to them?

Um my first message is the way to

differentiate yourself is to make use of

the current tools that are available in

the marketplace that you know the senior

investors in the platform aren't really

that skilled at. So AI is one when I

came into the industry it was electronic

spreadsheets do that and secondly

observe what's going on. You'll see who

the leaders are and the traits that are

characteristic of them. You'll also see

people who you feel well because of

their characteristics and traits.

They're being held back. So keep your

eyes open and observe.

>> I really emphasize the last thing you

just said is forget about trying to find

wonderful people like Kelsey Barrow is

just an idea. Figure out the people that

aren't getting it done. That's the

biggest lesson from an intern. Now, you

didn't mention this that part of the

training of a JP Morgan intern is to

master the Bloomberg Professional

Service.

>> Of course, that's a good

>> tool

in technology. So,

>> okay, we send them for training.

We see him here every day.

>> Bob Michael lecturing on the Bloomberg

terminal to interns, the chairs at JP

Morgan. He drives all of fixed income.

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg

Surveillance coming up after this.

You're listening to the Bloomberg

Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

weekday afternoons from 7 to 10:00 a.m.

Eastern.

>> Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto

with the Bloomberg Business App or watch

us live on YouTube.

>> I got a line item on Madison Square

Garden Sport Group at capital

expenditures.

That doesn't include what it's going to

cost to keep my

>> Jaylen

>> in my household. It's not Jaylen, it's

my

>> Jayen. I understand.

>> Chris Morangi is our Nick's expert here.

We're throwing you could join us today.

Uh CIO of Value at Cabelli Funds. Just

throat he could come by. You have talked

forever about Madison Square Garden

Sports. How do you respond after what

we've all witnessed over the last 90

days?

>> Well, I still have Nick's fever, still

living off of it. Uh, you know, you

mentioned Bitcoin earlier. I don't know

that Mario would have called it rat

poison. We're not, but we're not we're

not involved. We'd rather buy sports

teams. They're great stores of value.

They actually are good businesses.

Capital Light, they're tribal uh

audiences. They um allow them to exert

pricing power. And winning helps, but

it's not everything. Um, you know,

>> how much does winning help? Where do you

see that on the income statement? Well,

it definitely has created more Knicks

fans, including in my household. It

seems like your household,

>> my children,

>> but but you know, I'm not sure the

Knicks are worth materially more today

than they were a month ago. They are the

most valuable franchise in the NBA. Um,

you know, you're paying at $400. The

stock went from $250 to $400 this year.

24 million shares, a little bit of debt.

Um, that's an enterprise value of 10

billion. The Knicks are worth at least

10 billion based on the Lakers selling

for that much earlier this year. And you

get your Rangers for free. Is that why

James Dolan is splitting up the the

teams?

>> Well, lots of theories about that. Um,

one is to give them financial

flexibility. There is this thing, and I

won't go too deep into it at 9:00 in the

morning, but 162M, it's a new provision

of the tax code, which makes it more

expensive to keep players.

>> Speaking of, we have to bring in our

Knicks expert, Alexis Kristoff with

Chris Moreni.

>> Hey, you know, we kept Shamut. How

excited are we about that?

>> I'm excited about that.

>> We didn't think that was going to

happen.

>> We'd like to Yeah. bring it back. They

want to keep the core the core five

starters I think next year. So very

exciting.

>> Chris want to ask you about um Comcast

big announcement yesterday um splitting

apart the company the NBC Universal uh

from the core cable broadband business

there. What do you think the strategy is

there and how do you guys think?

>> Well, it's a trend splitting companies.

Um you know in 2009 I was here cheering

on Brian Roberts who absolutely stole

NBC from GE

>> trough multiples trough cash. the world

has changed and it's changed a lot. This

split is not a surprise. The timing is a

little bit of a surprise. Um but you

know it definitely gives them increased

uh flexibility. I think you'll see more

consolidation particularly on the cable

side. The joke in among media investment

bankers is every 5 years Brian gets a

niche and he needs to go out and do

something big. What do you think he

wants to do in this new world order? I

can't imagine he's splitting these

companies up and putting new bringing

Mr. Angelus back

>> right

>> to retire. Well, Michael Angelquez is a

deal guy. Yes. Uh and so that's not

missed. Um telecom companies need scale.

You know, again, probably 10 years ago,

I would have been talking about the

broadband hedge, which is to use

Netflix. You need fast broadband that

was only provided at the time by the

cable companies. That moat has been

breached. Yep. Uh by fiber from the

telephone companies as well as now fixed

wireless. And you got more guys coming

over that that moat from space.

>> Okay.

your heritage here with Gabelli and I

was a huge huge interest in GAB years

ago. You guys own media. So I think CNN

is with CBS. What's NBC Universal going

to do? They have it's out in the

zeitgeist. Rich Greenfield's talking it

up. I mean they got to mate with

somebody, right?

>> Well, yeah. And and there are a lot of

pieces. Obviously, they did the spin-off

of Versent at the very beginning of the

year. We all remember they have another

network um in business. Um but yes, they

they have kept most of the sports um

business, the cable networks, including

MS Now and and CNBC. They have their own

path. We love their their CEO. We all

like the stock and buying the stock. C

NBC is a bit different. Um obviously the

parks business, which probably the most

business within NBC.

>> Yep.

>> Um but listen, there are Netflix has

shown its hand. They want to buy

probably. So do some of the other big

tech companies.

>> All right, let's step back just broadly.

How are you guys at Fabelli looking at

the markets these days?

>> So, you know, there's we're in a bubble

everywhere somewhere. It's just a

question of where we are in that bubble.

I think we have we're still mid innings

to use the sports analogy. Um still tons

of money obviously going into capex.

That's what's fueled the market.

Earnings estimates have gone up. They've

gone up more than the market and um so

we're we're we're trying to focus on

>> industries that we know uh inflation

conduits, etc. So, no, no change in what

we do.

>> So, I know you guys are really bottoms

up. Look at value, fair market value,

private market value. Where do you see

value out there? Because it seems like

it's that's tough to do.

>> Yeah, I mean it's still down market,

down cap, which was a wasteland for

many, many years. It's where we started

really finding value. Still there and

the indices have been dominated by

semis.

>> Did you ever do a conference call with

David Weston? like you're on the phone.

Chris Morangi Gabelli.

>> What a what a wonderful quarter. Mr.

Weston, did you ever do that?

>> I don't think we got around to that. We

can do it right now.

>> We do it right now. Joining us, David

Weston, I want to get to your really

important interview with Paul Krugman.

David Weston, but this is just too much

media here right now. I mean, I'm I'm

sorry. We have a consolidation of

American media. David Weston, where are

we in five years given your experience

at ABC in Bloomberg? Well, I think it is

consolidation. I think that's right. I

mean, you know about this better than I

do probably. But the thing you've seen

with streaming, the big move is

technological. It's streaming. Streaming

has taken over thanks to Netflix and now

we have YouTube. And the one thing we've

learned about streaming, I think, is you

need a lot of content. You need a huge

library. That's why Bob Iger bought Fox,

right, to get really bulk up a lot. And

I think that's what they've got to do

for MS. I heard you talk about NBC. So,

Chris, what does what does YouTube do?

It's all about I mean, they're in C I

talked to our people. They're back from

can. Did you ever go to Can I have been

>> Did you go to K?

>> I have missed that one.

>> Well, there was there's a thing called

Vipcom that you had to go to every year

where I don't want to hear. Well,

YouTube is first at the Carlton, by the

way, Tom down the coret. That's where

you stay. YouTube is the biggest media

company in the world, which people

forget about, but I think it's more than

just streaming. It's live. It's live in

sports like this program. You know, it's

>> Rob Schwarz.

>> Live is the new moat. I stole the quote

from him. Talk about live.

>> You can't skip it. I mean, people love

to listen to replays of what you're

doing here, but it's worth most when we

listen to you live. Uh, and that's why

what advertisers are paying up for, and

that's why we subscribe. David, back in

your remitt, you were in ABC News for a

long time. Where does network news, I

mean, where are we here? And I I look at

Paramount and they CBS and CNN. I don't

know how that works, but

>> So, do you want an answer for my heart

or for my head?

>> Yeah, both.

>> There's two different answers.

>> Surveillance.

>> Heart. It's going to be great and we're

going to be really important and network

news is going to offer our head. I don't

understand the business plan.

>> I just don't get it.

>> Uh and we've seen this, by the way, this

goes all the way back to cable. I mean,

I when I when I went to run ABC News, uh

Fox News had not yet started. MSNBC had

just started, right?

>> And so they came over, but there's been

one innovation after the other that just

eroded the business plan. So there's no

moat around the business anymore. You

can't charge unless there's scarcity. Uh

I absolutely agree with live on sports

particularly sports. And I'll say Tom,

you and Paul, when it comes to markets,

I mean there's some scarcity there you

want, but other than that, there's just

you can't charge for it. And as a

result, what you're seeing, I think, is

a version of AM radio infecting its way

into broadcast uh network news. That's

what you're seeing.

>> I would defer to David, but I actually

think that with this polarization of the

country, you are seeing MS Now take out

one side, Fox has the other, and it's a

battle for the middle. CNN is fading.

News Nation is coming into there. Maybe

the network's

>> You have to have an opinion. CNN prided

themselves and right Matt Winkler and

Michael Bloomberg have said we're going

to do a news organization where people

don't know what Paul Sweeney thinks okay

or maybe they don't know what I think

but is there a middle ground available

Chris Morangi or you going to only win

with a polarization

>> well again using the fire analogy in my

heart I wish that was the world in my

head I don't think

>> it's the answer is it's never happened

yet when you're talking about general

news uh what happened here at Bloomberg

was unique ique in that if you go left

or right when it comes to money, you're

going to be out of business because you

know it's either right or wrong. The

market's up or it's down and you know

you can't get opinion. When you talk

about general news then you can have

opinions whether are right and left.

>> Uh across America and worldwide we're

continuing our conversation. Thrilled to

have David Weston Weston with us with

his work at ABC and of course now with

Wall Street Week at Bloomberg and Chris

Morangi with us with Gabelli even better

three media pros Paul Sweeney with all

of his work over the decades.

>> Hey Chris at Fox they've seem to stake

their company and I would argue pretty

successfully on their news and their

branded news and sports. Is that enough?

Well, you know, Rupert acted first on

this by selling his entertainment

business to Disney. I'm not sure Disney

or Comcast uh would have I think they

probably both would have replayed that

if we could go back in history.

>> Um you know, they've taken a run at Roku

or are buying Roku, which was a little

bit of a surprise to to the street um

because they're trying to find a

business model for what they have left.

>> Um and um I wouldn't doubt them. They're

very good. They're very uh agile. So,

we'll see how that plays out.

>> Clyde Davis uh has died at 94. Ted

Turner recently John Malone iconic and

Gabelli was so attached to uh TCOMA.

Where's that? Where's the next

generation of those people or was that

old time lost?

>> I don't know what the next generation

obviously we have next generations of

some of those families, but I'm not sure

we have the mogul that we once had, the

Summoners and the John's.

>> Yeah.

>> And Rupert's still around obviously as

John. He's active, but he's active in a

different way.

>> I got to get this in, folks, because

David Wesson's just killing it. Did you

just have a conversation with Paul

Krugman?

>> We did.

>> The lawyer. What did you learn? I saw

the headline from your people. David has

people. You have people. Weston has

people basic a person. Not a people. A

person

is coming around to supporting a Trump

tariff regime.

>> Well, well, I think that may be a little

too much, but it was interesting. He

said he was actually uncomfortable with

where he is when it comes particularly

with automobiles on tariffs because he

would like to be a free trader and he

said he and other people he knows are

very uncomfortable. He thinks that it

will not sustain at this point given

what China is doing. There have to be

some sort of protective tariffs or we

will just lose our auto industry.

>> This is critical folks because this is

Krugman's wheelhouse. This is how he won

the Nobel Prize. Chris Mangi Mario

Gabelli started out as an auto analyst.

Are you guys long China EV?

>> We're very worried about it. Um, look,

we still own we still like a lot of the

um car parts companies that are sort of

agnostic to the platform. Not as much as

we were, you know, 50 years ago. We

turned 50 this year. So

>> Oh, okay.

>> You don't look at Mario. Well, I'm 50,

too. Mario's a little older than that,

but our firm almost as old as me.

>> Yeah, that's right.

>> This has been wonderful. Thank you to

the two of you so much for uh coming in

this morning. Chris Morangi with all of

his leadership at Cabelli and David

Weston. Stay with us. More from

Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after

this.

>> You're listening to the Bloomberg

Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

weekday afternoons from 7 to 10:00 a.m.

Eastern.

>> Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto

with the Bloomberg Business App or watch

us live on YouTube.

>> We're going to do this interview

differently. Ellen Wald is senior fellow

at Atlanta Council and I can go to where

where's Brent crude going or what's a

gallon of gas going to do. We have a

treasure. She wrote a book a number of

years ago called Saudi Inc. and it

directly folds into the tapestry the

culture of the Arab clash against

Persia. I think of Valley Nar's

wonderful new book on Iran. Joining us

now Ellen water book is must readad

Saudi Inc. Ellen, reset now the arch

Sunni Shia split in the world after this

war.

>> So I I do think that while the the Sunni

Shia split is is very important in a

religious sense, um I do think that

politically it's probably becoming less

of an issue and we've seen that in a

number of fronts. Um, you know, I think

that the most prominent is really the

Iranian support for um, Hamas. Hamas is

a predominantly Sunni group, it it grew

out of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt,

which is a very Sunni based group. Um,

and so we're really seeing, I think,

that that um, while there are very

distinct religious differences between

Iran and Saudi Arabia, I think they're

very profound culturally, they're very

profound religiously. um Sa you know

Iranian clerics do not look to the

Saudis as a source of religious

legitimacy or religious authority which

is something that other uh Sunni

countries do. Um but I do think that we

are seeing the growth and and prominence

in fact of um kind of mixed areas. Look

at the United Arab Emirates. This is a

region that has traditionally, you know,

it is it is a a Sunni um, you know,

country, but it is um, traditionally

very close to Iran and Persia. And I

think we're seeing that playing out in

real time as a lot of these Gulf

countries are kind of caught between uh,

Iran's orbit on one hand and Iran as a

growing regional par power and, you

know, on the other hand um, their

traditional allies. Do the Arab Sunnis,

let's start with the Truchial States and

go up to Kuwait, do they consider the

United States still a steadfast ally?

>> Uh, I do think that that is a question

that um the answer to that is is is

going to be coming very quickly. I think

that they were um initially they did

consider the US to be a very steadfast

ally especially um you know the the UAE

they have been working very closely with

the US to establish you know nuclear

power plants which have been very

important to their overall um you know

energy growth um they've really become

very close with Israel which has brought

a number of very positive uh economic

benefits for them and yet at the same

time I do think that they felt somewhat

abandoned and still feel abandoned uh

because they believe very strongly that

Iran should not control the straight of

hormones. Iran should not pay tolls uh

or should not demand tolls or any kind

of um you know fees for passage to the

straight of moves and if the United

States gives in on this in any form uh

it's a sign to the UAE that the United

States is not a partner that will

support them and I think that we will

see them make some very um important

choices in the coming months uh that

that have to do with this if they don't

believe that the US will defend free

passage in the straight of moves.

They're going to build pipelines to get

around it. Uh and they're not going to

necessarily depend on the US politically

or or diplomatically.

>> Ellen, a lot of traders are saying,

"Hey, you you you wind this war down and

oil just from a supply and demand

perspective, it's gone back down to 50,

if not even lower by the end of the

year." How do you think about that?

I think that um there's a lot of

optimism there in terms of um oil

returning to somewhat normal flows out

of the Persian Gulf and that's really

not happening. Yes, we've seen a lot of

oil exit the the Persian Gulf recently.

We're not seeing nearly as many tankers

come back in. I think that the new

normal is going to look like a ferry

service. We're going to see a couple of

of services that will basically ferry

oil out of the street of Hormuz to

tankers that sit outside. So more oil

will leave than necessarily we see

tankers in but this process will be more

expensive. It will take longer. Uh and I

also think that um China's demand

China's buying patterns have not

returned to where they were before. If

China decides, hey, we're no longer

interested in you know buying that extra

4 million, 5 million or so barrels a

day, then uh yeah, we're going to be in

a big oil glut because the world is used

to China's demand being elevated like

that. Uh if China does return to that

then I do think that oil at 50 is a bit

low.

>> Ellen Walt, thank you so much. Senior

fellow of the Atlantic Council, her

definitive book Saudi uh Inc. Stay with

us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance

coming up after this.

>> You're listening to the Bloomberg

Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

weekday afternoons from 7 to 10:00 a.m.

Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and

Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business

App or watch us live on YouTube.

>> She is wellqualified for a larger

perspective. Not so much the cliche of

60,000 ft, but just where are we now? Uh

with Parchmentata Warden of Colombia in

the hugely prestigious UCLA uh reach in

trade and international relations, Tani

Fukulele joins us from Met Life. our

international relations now in the time

of Trump the cacophony of news we're

facing is our trade is our international

linkages are they forever broken or can

we still move forward with American

exceptionalism

>> broken is a strong word I think and but

I would say that it's a concern it's a

concern in terms of our international

trade how that affects our ability to

get the things that we need at the right

price. Right? Inflation is one of those

concerns that without with these

shifting global trade patterns, we're

not going to necessarily be able to get

to that 2% in inflation uh for some time

just because of all the changes to the

global economy, the supply shocks that

continue to come,

>> the endless supply shocks. What does the

demand side look like? Paul keeps

telling me the restaurants are packed.

>> Yeah, the demand side is strong. um

whether that's you know just the top 20%

or the top 19% or the top 1% or whatever

on the macroeconom macroeconomic front

you you've got a strong consumer overall

in aggregate and you've got strong

corporations right corporate profits are

are going from strength to strength

let's see what happens next quarter but

for sure they're they've done extremely

well and that also supports the economy

>> how's the consumer doing out there Um,

again, the consumer seems pretty darn Is

it just as simple as if the consumer's

got a job, the consumer's okay?

>> That and inflation not being at 9%

helps, right? So, we had um we had

problems because of inflation. Consumer

consumer says they the consumers say

they're unhappy

>> um but they don't spend like they're

unhappy. And that's the important

difference, right? And they are still,

you know, they they say you can inflate

def uh you can inflate debt away. That's

what happened during the pandemic and

they're still at on aggregate again at

relatively low debt levels and debt

service ratios. So there's there's

bandwidth there.

>> We've got oil back down to $70 a barrel

from 100 plus. Does that mean my

inflation concerns are done? Um I think

there's a long there's a bit of a tale

there um for in terms of how that passes

through the rest of the economy. My big

concern though is really more about the

intersection of AI

price pressures and energy prices. So

yes, there's a little bit there because

of the straight of hormones, but there's

a lot there because of um AI demand for

all sorts of things, chips, computers,

blah blah blah, but especially also very

much energy.

>> But the heart and soul of Met Life, your

work, Drew Madison's work in that is to

get away from the blah blah blah and

say, "Here's where we are in three years

or five years." Do you look at AI as a

blah blah blah, I love that for can I

steal that? I'll steal that. But if if

you look at the blah blah blah, is it

all a productivity enhancer and a net

positive for our nation 3 years 5 years

out?

>> I I would say yes. But how we get there

is is certainly not a smooth and easy

path. Uh clearly there's massive gains

to be had from productivity. But if you

think about let's say we are something

like in 1998 or so in terms of the 1996

1998 in terms of the dot boom you didn't

really see you know you you played

around with things you thought it was

kind of cool the internet but you didn't

really have the productivity benefits

until a decade or so later

>> you were so on you you played around

with it that perfectly captures 1995.

So,

Fed Chairman Walsh, what was your

initial read of his first statement, his

first press conference, and kind of the

direction here?

>> Yeah, so I think he's um I mean, the

result of it has been um very much in

line with what I think works to his

advantage. He didn't say very much in

the in the statement, in his press

conference. He tried not to say very

much. he didn't provide a um press a b a

dot and I think all of those things are

in his line of trying to say less um as

a as the Fed chair. Um I think the

markets took that as hey we knew he was

a hawk all along. Let's go. Um but I'm a

little bit worried about the future

because I think he wants to be he wants

to play it more close to the vest but

this isn't 20 2011 anymore. Now we've

got the social media era where if you

don't speak, everybody else will fill in

for in that vacuum for you. You know,

all the Fed ch all the Fed um uh

governors, the presidents, every

commentator out there, all the you know,

and that's that's where um playing it

close to the vest may not work when it

did a couple year couple decades ago.

>> It's a really great observation that the

social media the communications are, you

know, they're trying to do a green span

worsh comparison.

>> Yeah. And you know it's just doesn't

>> two different worlds.

>> Tonnie, thank you so much. Tonnie Fui,

never enough time, senior director,

economic and market strategy, Metife.

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