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>> Hello and welcome to another episode of

the OddLots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.

>> And I'm Tracy Aloway.

>> Tracy, we're recording this March 25th,

2026. It's 9:10 a.m. And the

>> Are you going to do the seconds as well?

>> No, but the reason I do mention the

time, the cash trading and the stock

market hasn't opened. The reason I

mentioned the time is not just because

things are moving fast, but to establish

we've had market moving headlines

already this morning. Oh, absolutely. So

just in the last like 15 20 minutes we

got some headlines attributed to the

FARS news agency out of Iran saying

there is no interest in talks there's no

interest in ceasefire the US position

about pursuing a ceasefire is illogical

that moved futures down a little bit

we're you know it's a cliche you know

headline driven market you hear that a

lot the last several weeks have felt

like the headline driven market to drive

all headline driven market

>> no it really I know it's a cliche but it

really is a headline driven market and I

think part of the issue here is because

no one's entirely sure what the goals

are when it comes to Iran, it's really

hard to judge progress of the conflict

on any sort of fundamental basis, right?

So all you can look at is basically what

Trump and the other two sides are saying

and so you get these big reactions every

time they tweet something or post on

truth social and then tend to contradict

each other.

>> Absolutely. And you know I do think look

there is this extreme level of

skepticism from almost any headline you

get out of the US white house.

>> I think if you go back to the post

liberation day environment particularly

with the sort of modest

with China you would get these headlines

we're talking and then the Chinese would

put out a headline we're not talking but

then it turns out that there was a

little bit more talk than what maybe the

Chinese side had admitted to. So often I

think as much as you dis as many people

are inclined to disbelieve headlines, I

don't think people disbelieve them

entirely.

When Trump said yesterday that the

Iranians had sent him a prize that was

extremely valuable and it's like I mean

that's tough to take seriously. But is

there some modest signal? I don't know.

It's really tough. It's really tough.

But I, you know, I just want to say two

other things real quickly on this, which

is that even with the headlines today

about Iran rejecting ceasefire, futures

are still up. So it's not like people

have like completely, oh, nothing's

happening. And for all the talk about,

and we've had multiple guests and I

they're the smartest people in the world

talk about, oh, oil is going to surge

the longer this goes on. As of the time

we're talking about this, Brent crude is

still right around or just under $100.

We haven't had the mega surge yet. So, I

like to take markets seriously even if

sometimes I don't always understand what

they're doing.

>> Well, the big question to me is whether

or not markets are still in denial,

right? And you see people talking about

like, oh,

>> people are being very optimistic about

the future. I saw the Morgan Stanley

report saying that corporate profits

were going to go up later this year. the

oil price. Again, we're talking about

the closure of the straight of Hormuz,

which is the sort of thought experiment

that has bedeled oil analysts for

decades. And yet, you know, the reaction

has been kind of muted.

>> Meanwhile, in the rates market, there's

a lot going on there, too. And you still

have a lot of bond traders who are very

reluctant to price out the possibility

of a rate cut later this year.

>> Completely. And it feels like the idea

of a rate cut, at least for now, does

not seem anywhere near the quote table.

But yeah, anyway, so how do traders even

like make sense of this headline? How do

they know what headlines to believe? Why

does there sometimes seem to be this gap

between what a lot of people think the

market should be and where it actually

is? Very excited to say we have uh one

of the most plugged in people that we

know is someone who is talking to people

who move serious money every single day.

He goes around the world and he has

dinners with them and he talks to them

about their trades. He even brought us a

nice gift which is uh his tour a tour.

It is the cover the macro dinners 2026

tour with a nice Deutsche Bank logo.

>> But you should read some of those cities

just to give an idea

>> the dates of the macro dinner tour. Jan

4th London Jan 21 Geneva Jan 29th Milan

Miami Budapest London New York City

Montreal Copenhagen Riad Doha Dubai etc.

You get the idea. He's always talking to

people and he is the one of the most

plugged in people that we talk to. We

are going to be speaking of course to

the one and only Ozan Tarman, vice chair

of global macro at Deutsche Bank. So,

uh, Ozan, thank you for coming back on

OddLots.

>> Joe and Tracy, it's an absolute

pleasure. Highlights of the week, very

close to where I used to live in New

York City as well.

>> Uh, it's great having you here in

studio. It's a pretty wild market to

trade, I assume.

>> Very, very wild market to trade. And on

the t-shirt, unfortunately, for example,

this Riyad Qatar Dubai leg that I was

looking forward to. We'll see what

happens.

>> Oh, right.

>> We'll see. We'll see. We'll see what

happens with uh with that. But not

necessarily untradeable. Still traders

always smell things, always have a sense

of where the paint is, where the

momentum is. Even uh walking in now, I

became a veteran of this wonderful show.

I was thinking this time around we

should really say Wednesday night.

>> Yeah, that's right. you know one I I I

know that what I can say now one day

later may look a little bit different

etc etc but still walking in now

obviously it's a bit cliche to say it

takes two to tango or taco three maybe

but that being said at the moment the

pain trade the momentum trade is for

this equity rally and oil fall to

continue there are many unfortunately I

have told all my clients france wounded

hurt players out there certainly in race

market certainly on front end

>> so people are reluctant to take fresh

bets but as I constantly hold these

conversations roundts I do get the sense

that now getting to know the president

well as well people did expect this we

won the war I won the war mission

accomplished moment which he's trying to

do in a few ways then the big debate is

yes and we do get these spikes of equity

sire oil lower at the end as you rightly

said even brand is lower than 100 than

we should talk VT VI is even lower

>> but do you fade it or not that's what it

boils down to another big true cliche is

what does Iran do what does Iran say as

we speak because of fars like you said

Israel 12 said these talks are happening

farce Iran said no we're still waiting

which one to fade that's the big

question mark my gut feel from what I

sense from the clients is there is room

for a squeeze here in equities sire oil

over lower but the tail risk is very

very fat.

>> Yeah.

>> Wait. So talk to us more about

positioning. I mean going into this war

I think everyone was pretty much

expecting rate cuts later in the year

oil prices nothing dramatic there

certainly. Did everyone just change very

very quickly and now we're left with

positioning that can lead to a bigger

squeeze higher?

>> Very relevant question. I want to take

us back to February 27, the night before

the attack on Iran. Again, I was

visiting Palm Beach and Miami and the

feel couldn't be more different. The

main obsession focus of the US client

base, the key players was AI research

something big is going to happen.

Schumer how 50% of white color jobs

could be lost in 12 to 18 months. So

finally not only rate cut expectations

were increasing we were we were getting

bull flatteners. So even long end was

coming down Thursday Friday it was

around 405 and I do remember before Iran

US 10 year close topic 3.93

and cannot be named but some one of

those more legendary France clients of

mine comes to me with an email ozan we

nailed this this that bond is the new

gold.

>> We need to talk about our friend gold as

well.

One more thing, another good friend. I

did bring this on paper because it's

very very telling. This guy sends me a

message I think the Tuesday or Wednesday

before Iran. The multi-illium question

is can the rest of the world isolate

itself from this destruction? I'm not

sure. He was talking more about the AI

fears. Another observation today reminds

me of early February 2020. While we all

saw people falling over in China, it

became clear by the day that we're about

to see a pandemic. The S&P made new

alltime high. The same is today with

Iran. Nobody cares. I mean,

>> yeah,

>> rings so true through now, right?

>> Actually, let's talk about gold and

positioning for a second. The last time

we had you on was September, and one of

the themes of that was uh the relentless

bid into gold. And whenever we frame a

conversation, I'm like, God, this is

going to be the top. It was not the top,

even close. So, that was uh gold was

around 3,800 ounce during that episode.

It got over $5,500 an ounce in early

February. As of yesterday, we saw a

10day gold selloff. How much is this

just about all these different trades

not working at once? The steepener trade

not working at once, the oil trade not

working at the same time, and

essentially a lot of players being

forced to liquidate the one big winning

thing that they had in their portfolio.

>> Very much so. And look, I love you guys,

but on the last show as well, uh when we

all started with gold media, gold media,

I was very, you know, happily politely

answering, but in my mind, I was saying

this is an orange sign of course. And

then I listen to our show. We listen. So

I'm like risk on this works. Risk of

this works. I'm like Joe Tracy like it

has to be something that comes from the

left field that gets the whole thing

>> unwound. And even though the guy says

here Iran people look at nobody cares.

The repercussions on the position is

just like you said that people to get

out of all winners

>> and gold was a big winner. Emerging

markets were big winners. Yeah. So that

was the first trigger and then another

story now once you are in this position

once you realize it's not days it's not

weeks this is going to continue on and

on petro dollar countries other people

start selling their winners to build

defense mechanisms I mean it's almost

like public reporting in terms of China

my motherland Turkey India they have

these gold reserves for a reason so

that's another reason Why first

technicals you go after your winner and

then fundamentally some of these strong

hands

>> for understandable reasons

>> are selling them everything happened

back to Tracy's question so people were

all into these bare flatten steepeners

first then they believed in bull

flatteners because everything was all

rates were coming down then you get into

this world and thanks were jumping onto

it Monday after Iran warflation

warflation this is serious inflation

expectations will increase it's not as

simple as finding the next Venezuela

jersey and my god from like getting

ready for cuts discussion one two or

maybe three in Fed at least hold ECB and

certainly cut Bank of England look where

we are now for a while we've priced in

four hikes for Bank of England and ECB

we're right below three now for both

that's huge that means seats are lost

pods are closed

>> are closed how many times have you heard

the word liquidation

or you know a pod shop blowing up in the

past few weeks

>> a lot unfortunately right capulation and

I teach all our young stars or mentors

so after the cliche is oh investment

bank will do well trading floor will do

well because you know be offer fear no

not like that after a while there's

really something called bad volatility

and this is bad volatility from these

crazy headlines being that much slaves

to what somebody says at Friday 10 p.m.

to Saturday 11 p.m.

Also um this much of liquidation and

capitation after a while people say the

best thing is uh blank piece of paper

less trading and let's watch that's why

your opening question some people see

this market as untradable

but unfortunately in times like this

especially if you're not wounded somehow

flat is the new up if you have survived

these are the moments to make the

difference who knows who knows Joe maybe

this is right around April 9, 2025

moment. This is when may maybe this is

right around the around the dip and we

will remember it like the time we we

were able to look through it. I have my

doubts, but maybe

>> what is a pain trade and why is why is

that a useful concept?

>> Very good questions. You know, you you

know what triggers me? a pain I mean

it's not the ideal definition maybe

because you don't want your clients and

friends to be in pain but a lot of it

even before the days of quant trading

crowding out positioning is so important

for this market after a while it can

become as important as a fundamental

factor after a while you do feel that in

these echo chambers players almost want

to believe because of the pricing

fundamentals on what they're talking

about so pain trade is when that hurt

gets a belief in a trade so much and

when it works just the other way around.

I mean what happens to gold is a big one

because for a long time it was unshaken

but sometimes even

>> smaller instances

>> like for the past 15 to 18 months we

really believed that big dollar would

trade soft what I mean by that is either

because of h ratios dollization

dollar wouldn't be the safe haven that

it used to be it would make sense to

sell dollars whenever one has a chance

now all of a sudden because of Iran

because of people building up selling

their winners to go to safe heavens. If

we trade towards the 110 111 before

120121

that's a much less talked about pain

trade why because it's going to further

shake places like rest of the world

emerging markets Korea etc etc and of

course it opens conversation right

sometimes you say sometimes pain trade

is so obvious sometimes some say no this

you know that trade is there for a

reason consensus is going to continue to

work you develop a market you trade on

it

>> on the dollar and this is related to

gold as well you do seem to be in this

weird situation where like, okay, people

are liquidating the successful trades to

raise cash, go neutral, whatever. But at

the same time, you still have plenty of

people talking about diversification

away from the US. And you could make a

very strong argument that given what's

happening in the oil market right now,

maybe you don't want to only price that

in dollars. Maybe you want to start

thinking about other currencies. How are

people thinking about the I guess like

US exceptionalism trade at the moment

because there's two crossurrens

>> for sure. It's moving from US

exceptionalism selling your US assets to

more hedge ratios. It it definitely

moved. Let's put it that way.

>> Again at the beginning of January,

February, all these events one after

another. Venezuela, Greenland. My god,

so much happened in 3 months.

>> Tell us about it. Pow Powell's case

again, not necessarily selling your USS,

but buying more, buying less, increasing

your H ratios had become fashionable.

But you're very right, Tracy. My partner

in success, one of them, George Seros,

head of our FX strategy, he has this, we

love George, we all do. He has this um

rough formula. Euro dollar roughly 2/3

oil price, one/3 gas price. It should

have traded around 11250 113 as we

speak. It doesn't. Part of the reason is

exactly this. Despite what oil is doing,

despite what gas is doing, people do

want to own a little bit less dollars.

But unfortunately as I sit here as I

come to my oddlas every 3 months or so

vice chair Dece bank proudly waving my

blue make Europe great again hat it's in

trouble a bit whether this world you

know takes another one week two week two

months the wounds will stay the wounds

will especially stay in oil and gas

prices we disrupt the supply enough and

the big importers the ones who need

those oil and gas price is lower is

Europe. So in an understanding way

talking about when consensus starts

becoming more sense in these roundts and

beyond it's becoming a bit fashionable

to start questioning the European

equities European credits. Funny enough

it doesn't show as much yet in the FX

but watch out for the equity and credit

angle of this Europe trade. So this is

this is really important which is that

basically okay there is this long-term

pessimism about Europe but there had

been some optimism recently and cheaper

energy prices certainly helped the

relative competitiveness and

profitability of the domestic industrial

giants and so forth. But we're going to

probably be regardless of the length of

the war in a period of structurally

higher energy prices and that continues

to build to the negative side of Europe.

So let's talk a little bit more about

oil because

>> exactly

>> if you just talk to the oil analysts who

I love like their hair is on fire right

now and they pro you know this is

cataclysm but Brent crude not only is it

well off its highs from a week ago it's

not even anywhere close to its highs in

2022

>> at the peak of the inflation I mean we

got at one point in March 2022 Brent

crude was at 139 we're below 99 actually

right now when I'm talking about this

the thing is like, oh, you closed the

straight of Hormuz, oil just exploded,

etc. We all know it. We all see it.

There is nothing that any of us, you can

like be online all day and talk to all

the energy experts. You are like, you do

not know more information than the

market does. So, talk to us like how

you're thinking about oil and the fact

that there does seem to be this gap

between the hair on fire rhetoric of the

oil knowowers versus the prices which

are high, but even by the scale of the

last 5 years, not insane. I was as as

the question was coming I was preparing

my next note to read but first of all on

the oil and fire we all see and respect

Jeff Curry what he said about

molecules and interesting people are

watching right did you see the tweet of

head of Iran parliament

>> oh yeah

he made he he used the you can't print

molecule this is another thing he also

referred to another thing as fake news

everyone around the world is now talking

the same that actually reminds me of a

friend who visited Afghanistan and he

met some people working for the Taliban

and like they started WhatsAppapping him

like Pepe the frog memes and they called

him a soy boy and stuff like that like

everyone talks the same way anyway that

a bit of a divergence but

>> a little bit depressing that this is the

common language

>> now this is the lingua frank of the

internet we all

>> everyone says warlation everyone say

etc etc all but talk more but but this

physical versus paper the paper trading

is very very important so this friend of

mine an ex-colague I worked with him for

decades big commodity trader now a dear

client and you know one of these guys

who he he talks math so MIT Russia's MIT

etc he sends me a message and we are now

even one more week late this is last

week

>> and he doesn't do ozan high all the time

ozan high onmus if it's not starting to

open in one month now three weeks the

world has a huge huge huge problem and

this is not ozan this guy doesn't say

>> Qatar LNG will need months to restart

once hormos is clear and in oil we have

10 mibes of shutins already and Asian

refiners are very very start pipelines

to rate C would take years and also

Arnata Panacea etc et talks about

hoodies so I get it brand versus what

WTI WTI is trading even better etc etc

but especially if the likes of Fars is

correct

>> if we have a lot of talk but one way or

another this hormos is only two three

tanks you know

>> one Indian tank, one China tank. I do

fear that these guys warning us about

physical delivery maybe more, right?

>> Yeah. And look, of course, and I get the

logic, but the people in the oil market

who are trading, whether they're

speculators, whether they're hedge

funds, whether they're real oil

companies who are having to hedge

production, they have a lot of money at

the line. They know all of this. There

is nothing that can be said about the

longer this goes on, blah blah blah, the

more they get shut in, blah blah. We're

running out of storage. It's going to

take time to rebuild. There's nothing

that could be said. And yet here we are

at the

>> and I respect their approach as well.

This comes back to also why equities

haven't sold off that much. Why credit

hasn't sold off that much at the end of

the day. Okay, it may not be Venezuela.

We didn't find the dirty but I think

people do believe that this squeeze

longer squeeze will come and it's not

that easy to fade. So whether it's

Islamabad, whether it's Vance meeting

somebody in Islamabad, whether president

I wouldn't be surprised in two days

saying I need one more week and you know

creating a delay. People do believe that

in 3 months time, 6 months time that's

the forward oil market as well. We will

not be talking about this. We will be

talking much more about AI or private

credits. That's why the tail is big.

That's why okay another I'm I'm choosing

my words carefully as well but marines

are approaching we're talking about car

island

>> these French clients talk to that ex

general this ex general some claim that

taking control of foremost once marines

are there may not be that difficult

imagine that going wrong imagine you

know of course lives being lost but even

Joe one or two ships getting hit these

are not these are not army professionals

driving those ships these people people

on payroll. So even on one gas ship, one

oil ship hit,

>> things can get out of hand very very

quickly. And that's why, by the way,

let's link it back to markets. Okay, you

have a point. Oil brand is still below

100. But look what ECB and Bank of Bank

of England pricing did and they're not

backing away. They're saying Madame

Lagard today.

>> Of course, like she she sounded calm.

She didn't say I embrace the three hike

pricing, I will hike. But she did say we

will be we're watching this. So, uh,

>> back to the 2020 analogies. People don't

want to be seen late.

>> Mhm.

>> Things can move very, very fast.

>> I do want to talk about private credit

because I think it's important and it's

kind of gotten overshadowed by the Iran

situation for obvious reasons. But just

going back to the Taliban and Soy Boys,

which is a sentence I never thought I

would say on this podcast. I mean this

is the first like major conflict related

market event where we have both sides to

some extent using AI generated memes and

content to for you know propaganda

purposes to express their point of view

on how the conflict is going and what

they're trying to achieve. I am very

curious on a trading floor, if you're a

big investor, when Iran tweets like a

Lego video showing Trump doing something

or showing their reaction to Trump doing

something. Are traders watching those

and thinking seriously about them?

>> Thinking seriously about them? I I don't

know. But and they're watching, they are

forwarding each other the the things.

But the more key thing is, yeah, people

do start to weed out the more credible

sources or the more credible reverse

signs in this day and age. We all

translate from Arabic very very quickly.

We do compare what a US source says on a

potential Islamabad meeting versus what

an Iranian source says. After all, you

do get a sense that which Iranian source

seems to be more connected than the

other. All of these things are

I'm not going to say it makes our job

easier, but it makes our job even more

spicy, complicated in a way. We do have

Yeah, the I completely get you. Lego and

memes is one extreme. Not very useful.

But on the on the useful side,

>> yeah, there's the the Iranian credible

journalist is right there on the table

>> tweeting and telling you, "Look at that.

Look at this." That helps. You know, I'm

thinking about your shirt again and the

dinners that are scheduled in the Gulf

region that may or may not happen, which

brings me, you know, you're someone who

is extremely plugged into money in that

area and there's this question of like,

does something change in the trajectory

about the business of Dubai? There was a

headline about Millennium. Did you see

that?

>> I saw it. They may move some traders to

Jersey, which okay, cards on the table.

Like Dubai, not probably. I've never

been.

>> I doubt it's my cup of tea.

>> I feel like say with some certainty that

Dubai is more fun than

>> Well, this is what I'm saying. It looks

nicer than what I imagine the island of

Jersey is, which I just imagine is very

gray and bleak all the time. I don't

know but I assume like you know do you

think there's any of the talk about is

there going to be a real trajectory in

the amount of money flowing into the

golf

>> is that really and flowing in and out

short-term and medium-term answer

medium-term of course I do I have some

dear friends there beyond the this

industry other other industries like

direct analogy when I come to uh New

York obviously you see your clients but

you see your friends in Dubai you have

to give even more time because There has

been such a move for

>> different funds, taxes, you you know the

deal. People do have short-term memory.

Do remember COVID. But at the same time,

of course, this will have an effect.

Other areas may try to get some of that

influence. Maybe some of those people go

back to London. Maybe places like Milan,

other areas of Asia gets more

interesting. Absolutely. Heart goes out

to them. But at the same time, it

affects the sentiment as well. By the

way, part of the reason why many people

got the whole Iranian thing wrong.

>> Yeah.

>> Warflation, all that. It was that too.

So, not only from that Friday night,

Saturday morning of attack to Monday, we

didn't get a dirty, you know, the way I

put it, you know, upd.

But Iran immediately began hitting GCC.

Lifestyles got affected that affects

sentiment. So way before the worries

about inflation and warflation and

supply change supply change sentiment

got affected right there. So my hope and

thinking a year from now when we do the

show again the effect and power of Dubai

and Qatar will still be there but yes in

the short term u it's not going away.

It's it's it's an it's an important

market moving factor. By the way, did

you see that um Dulce Rodriguez is going

to be speaking in Miami at a investment

conference backed by Saudi Arabia? I'm

just saying they don't make communists

like they used to.

Let's talk private credit because we

have all these headlines coming out

about redemption requests and a bunch of

funds limiting those as is their right

in the fund documentation. However, I am

starting to get frustrated with this

knee-jerk response which is you see all

these headlines, you know, Aries, Apollo

curbing withdrawals and then everyone in

private credit is like, well, this is

fine. This is a feature of the system.

It's not a bug and obviously investors

should have read the docs and this is

exactly what's supposed to happen.

Whereas to me, it seems very clear there

is stress in private credit regardless

of what's actually happening with

withdrawals. And if you think about

private credit as this huge asset class

that was growing enormously in recent

years and was a major source of credit

and financing for companies in America,

then it seems very clear to me that what

we should be talking about right now is

a potential tightening of financial

conditions as some of that demand starts

to eb away. How are you thinking about

the private credit space? And when

you're doing your meetings with

investors, I'm very curious how much

time is spent on private credit versus

Iran right now.

>> Right before Iran, it was all about

private credit and AI of the world. Now,

as immediate headline to you last night

when I did a small round table, of

course, it all started with Iran, but I

did make sure that we went to private

credit and I'm with you Tracy. The

immediate reaction there from directly

involved people to more macro tourists,

it's not systemic. It's not systemic.

It's not 2008 maybe 2001 that yeah we

smile at each other that to me

immediately a bit of an orange sign okay

I understand so it's it all seems

orderly withdrawals are orderly etc etc

but headlines are not going away if

anything they are definitely hiding

behind Iran at the moment it would be

almost all what we would be talking

about especially in US if it wasn't for

Iran and by the way because of that my

blue hat would would have done much

better than US so that's another sad

thing right it's quote unquote US and

Israel's war, but Europe and UK and rest

of the world gets hurt more. But anyway,

these are the new cards we're dealt

with. The key thing to watch is at the

moment they claim it's orderly, you get

your money. If it feels more and more

like this, A B C, you see the headlines,

you're not going to be able to get your

money for a while. Then first time you

mention my binky, I'm very curious to

see what he says tonight on my macro

dinner. It's a Wednesday macro dinner,

big macro dinner tonight. is he's still

sticking to his 8,000. Why? If people

cannot take their money away from

private credit and have to sell

something liquid, then watch out for

public credit that has been very

>> resilient and of course watch out public

equity. So I'm watching that space very

very carefully. I do understand why they

immediately say it's not systemic. I get

it but you know okay maybe it's not 2008

but it's maybe something between this

2001 to 2008 also it's very into say

yeah it's not leverage is not there

thank god we may not see the northern

rock BBC scenes of 2007208 all these

cues and stuff it's a more quote unquote

1% problem but what if it spreads and

spreads and some of the big US banks

start lending less to these friends

what if insurance companies get hit more

and more. Watch this space. I think it's

a bit too superficial to say it's not

systemic.

>> It's going to be okay. It's almost like

uh the bank crisis of two years ago in

this place. I'm more worried than that.

>> You know, one of the things we're

talking about is this very violent rates

move and war inflation and so forth. But

one of the things that's emerged in the

last few weeks is there's growing

evidence that actually inflation was

reacelerating even prior to the start of

the war. And so when we look at these

moves, we might attribute some of them

to the war itself and the pasture of oil

prices and the military spending and

that of course Trump gets another $200

billion for defense. That's more

spending. That's inflationary. But maybe

like could it be that that is actually

not the story that the bigger story in

rates is simply that the data showing

that through the end of February there

is more evidence that inflation was not

heading down to 2% as many people had

maybe wish casted

>> and that's a really blow to my heart in

terms of expectations and stuff right

because quote unquote we almost had them

on on Feb 27

>> close we had a good thing going it was a

hurricane it was a hurricane obviously

much more important market it's a

tragedy for humanity war etc but for the

market as well it was a hierarchy ty was

at 393 if that NFP printed like that

maybe we would be talking 370s etc now

genie is completely out of the bottle

for very understandable reasons another

reason another world I want to relate to

related to inflation and before we wrap

up

>> this whole rationing that's a big watch

out for Europe for in Asia if this

continues like this if my uh Russia MIT

friend is right about and the and the

problems after a Oh, I mean people are

already talking about look at

Philippines headlines today for their

airlines. We may very soon be at a point

when some of these Asian countries can

say look I need to give energy and fuel

to my very important famous company but

much more important than that I need to

give fuel and energy and electricity to

my households. Sorry I have to choose.

Yeah,

>> in Europe we may be told maybe you know

don't use that air conditioning too much

work from home more travel less back to

my t-shirt sadly uh Dubai Qatar may be

postponed for understandable reasons but

what about Asia all these airline prices

will will shoot up maybe for work I will

go but for leisure maybe there will be

one less trouble all of this stuff will

hurt growth at the same time it will

need you rationing means more fiscal

measures means more inflation

expectations. So, you know, I'm not in

love with the word stackflation, but

also I'm a rational guy. My job is to

smell the market. Yeah, it's uh we woke

up that station fear.

>> Tarman, thank you so much for coming

back on Oddlos. Thank you for the

t-shirts.

>> Absolutely.

>> Always appreciate checking in with you

and um we'll talk to you again soon.

Next quarter, we'll do our quarterly

checking next time. I'd love

>> Wait, will you put us on the t-shirt as

one of your stops? I should

>> you guys are the highlights.

>> Thanks.

>> Yeah, thank you so much.

>> I always love catching up with Ozan. I

just find it, you know, it's just

incredibly useful to talk to someone

who's always talking to people. For

sure.

>> Right. Like that is a valuable thing in

its own right. Ozan has very interesting

perspectives, but to be able to just

like channel his like his brilliant MIT

friend, what the people said at the

macro dinner last night, always very

useful.

>> You know, also to Ozan's point about

actual capacity cuts in Asia and Europe.

So, you know, because I travel a lot and

I've lived in different places, I'm on

all these different random emailing

lists for like services

>> and flights and airlines and

transportation and things like that. And

I am starting to get the fuel sir charge

email. So, I got one from an Australian

car service that I used once ages ago. A

lot of Indian airlines are starting to

add fuel search charges. Like, you can

see it coming and it's happening

actually like pretty quickly.

>> I just don't want to travel right now,

especially with all the lines you see in

the US. No, seriously.

>> Well, that's a separate issue.

>> I know it's a separate issue, but it's

like I just want to cancel as much as I

can.

>> I'll remind you of that the next time

we're debating whether or not to go to

an external event and you're like,

"Yeah, I want to go. I don't want to go

right now. I don't want to go to

anything. But anyway, seriously, you

know, I do think like this is the thing

that I think about a lot, which is that

I've always been a take market seriously

and sometimes take them literally guy.

And I actually really don't like

>> I know you're a secret EMH bro.

>> Yeah. Not even so secret. And I really

don't like, you know, there will be a

headline from the White House and oil

will go down and everyone will say, "Oh,

they're people are so stupid. They're

being, you know, the investors are so

stupid. and traders are so stupid.

There's a lie, whatever. And like I

don't know about that. But like my point

is there's a lot of money on the line

for people who are paid to take this

very seriously.

>> And if oil is trading below 100, I take

that seriously and I want to understand

why there's the gap because there's

nothing that all of us online and in the

media know that the people with a lot of

money on the line don't know. Right?

This is a a fact. And I do think that's

a very interesting point that the people

with a lot at stake. Yeah, oil is high,

but it's certainly not at the hair on

fire levels that either that we even saw

in 2022.

>> Well, my guess is that what we're seeing

also is a divorce between the financial

and the physical.

>> That's true.

>> Right. So, you can tra you can trade oil

futures and assume that they're not

going to have to take delivery at some

point. But at the same time, if you're

after the physical barrels, like you

can't get those at the moment. So, I

don't even know how that like actually

relates to price. There's apparently

some price that we see Rory Johnston is

always quoted about the actual physical

price in Oman and it's like

significantly high but the two

eventually have to merge right like they

cannot remain disconnected.

>> Yeah, but not for not for a while. So I

think that disconnect is kind of like

what's in focus at the moment.

>> Well, if you're trading front month oil,

you have about a month, right?

>> Yeah. Okay, fine. But like I think

people are betting on like

>> I don't have to worry about it for a

month. That's what I'm saying.

>> Very plausible. It's it's certainly a

very very difficult unusual time. I mean

>> Oh, totally. And this is the other thing

to your point like it is very true that

the outcome of all of this basically

hinges on three players and one player

in particular and at any moment in time

you could have someone come out and

announce a ceasefire at which point to

Ozan's comments earlier like you could

see an almighty rally just because of

positioning going into this. you could

see a squeeze like without an agreement.

And so I think like that's also where a

lot of the nervousness is coming from

like no one wants to be caught

completely offside if the conflict

suddenly ends.

>> You know, uh Ozan used the term bad and

I think that makes sense which is okay

on one hand the trading desks sure

there's a lot of activity in some sense

and so that is a source of profit. On

the other hand, this is the type of

environment where it's like maybe you

just want to stay away. You want to keep

positions light. If you have a position,

you don't want to like go all in or

anything like that.

>> I'm imagining a trader like staring at

the VIX curve and going bad vault bad.

>> All right. Shall we leave it there?

>> Let's leave it there.

>> This has been another episode of the Odd

Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Aloway. You

can follow me at Tracy Aloway.

>> And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow

me at the stalwart. Follow our guest

Ozan Tarman. He's at Ozan Karman. Follow

our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen

Armano Bennett at Dashbot and Kalebrooks

at Kalebrooks. And for more OddLots

content, go to bloomberg.com/odlotss.

We have a daily newsletter and all of

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