Today's number, $43. That's the cost of

a hot dog at Davos where I am. Ed, I

like to think that every place is like a

human. And the more successful an event,

the sexier it is. And this place has the

sex appeal, Ed, of a Marriott lobby.

The only way you get anyone hard here is

you tell them you can introduce them to

the Saudi delegation.

>> Is the Saudi delegation there?

>> Oh, yeah. There's a lot of there's a lot

of people from the kingdom here.

Yeah. You know who's not here is the

people who are benefiting from threats

to invade a block of ice is uh the

Chinese. There aren't that many Chinese

people here.

>> Who do people most want to hang out

with? Like I remember you were saying on

your Instagram that certain people have

different colors which represents your

your status like on your badge like

who's the highest status most high value

uh type of individual at Darvis.

>> You're giving the PG-13 version of what

I said. Essentially, uh, whenever

mammals congregate, there's going to be

a hierarchy. And the way you sniff the

butt of other mammals here at Davos is

you look at the color of their badge.

There's like vendor badges, partner

badges, which means you paid your way

in, nonprofit badges, which means they

tolerate your wokeness to pretend that,

you know, Adavas is full of people who

are like claim to be socialists, and

then have to peace out in their talk

about income inequality to catch a

helicopter.

>> Are you part of this group? Where do you

stand in this? Yeah, I was just saying,

wait, is that me? Is that me? Um,

uh, wheels up at 9:30, just in case you

were wondering. Um, but I'm very

concerned about the climate. Uh, this is

our planet. Yeah. Anyways, back to me.

So, and the ultimate badge is a white

badge. And I figured out what it's like

to be a woman because first people look

you in the eyes and then they look at

your chest to see what kind of badge you

have. And a white badge is the

equivalent of big tits. That's what I

figured out here. People look at me in

the eyes and like, "Oh, I think I know

him. I think he's that weirdo online."

And then they look at my badge and are

like, "I love your content."

>> Oh, so you've got a good badge. What's

your badge?

>> I got the white badge. I'm I'm all

access because

>> And what does the white badge mean? It's

just like you're VIP.

>> I don't know what it means. It means

that you're in the main congress.

>> Friends with Larry Frink.

>> Yeah, I think that's what it means. It

means you're in the main congress hall

and you're not one of the satellites

roaming around. It's I was last here. I

know you want to know about this. I was

last here in 1999.

I don't know. I peaked very early and

then I went to I've just figured out

what happened, why I haven't been

invited back in 26 years. I went Claus

Schwab, who was the chairman and founder

of the World Economic Forum, invited me

to have lunch with him at his new office

in the hills of Zurich. And I went up

there and I'm like, Jesus Christ, this

is like a bomb lair. And I wrote about

it and said no nonprofit should have an

office that nice. And someone from WE

the World Economic Forum emailed me and

said class did not appreciate those

comments. Did not get invited back for

26 years. And then the year he steps

down I get invited back. So anyways I'm

I'm back at DVOS. Do you want to know

the difference between the vibes between

99 and 2025 or 2026? Is that what you

were trying to ask?

>> Uh please.

>> Well, in 1999 it was about the internet

and America. Bill Clinton gave the

biggest speech when I was here the last

time and it was about kind of

cooperation and alliances and also

competition, consumerism using a lot of

C's and now it's about AI and the

biggest speech was again from the

president of the United States, but it's

about chaos and coercion and I would

argue with a smattering of of

corruption. I sat next to the guy from

Binance last night,

>> Chang Ping Xiao.

>> Yeah. He got pardoned by President Trump

for and now his kids are in anyway.

>> So things have changed dramatically. Uh

the tone and the vibe. I would say that

generally speaking in 99 everyone kind

of wanted more. It was more optimistic.

Now everyone's sort of like I hope it

doesn't get worse. Meanwhile, everyone's

making a lot of money. I had I was at a

dinner I spoke at the Black Rockck

dinner and they had I don't know if it's

off the record. Anyways, they had a

bunch of AI masters in the universe

and everyone every startup here in 99 I

was pitching everyone on my startups and

now everyone's literally like come to

the ENY house and u learn about my AI

platform that's helping optimize and

workflow for manufacturing. I mean it's

just everyone has an AI startup. It

feels very reminiscent of 99 on a

business level in terms of in terms of

the hype cycle. uh what's just different

is America's role in the world and how

people perceive our role in the world.

But anyways, I'm here.

>> Well, we're gonna keep on unpacking

this. I'm going to get us started with

this episode. We are going to be talking

about Daros this week. So, the World

Economic Forum, as we are just

discussing, convened in Daros last week,

and this time people were actually

paying attention. Unlike many recent

years, the conference has been

dominating headlines. Top political and

tech leaders have all gathered in one

place. President Trump has obviously

made a splash walking back two earlier

positions on Greenland. He ruled out the

use of force to acquire Greenland and

then he walked back tariff threats

against European countries standing in

the way. That of course sent markets

rallying in the US. In addition to

Trump's speech which covered everything

from relations with Europe to his

affordability plans. The conference also

featured remarks from Canada's Prime

Minister Mark Connie which we will get

into. Also France's president Emanuel

Macccron who is wearing a strange pair

of glasses and EU President Ursula von

Delean. In total nearly 65 heads of

state and government attended alongside

some of the most powerful figures in

tech and finance including Jensen Huang,

Jamie Diamond, Sati Nadella and others.

Scott, we've been getting a vibe check

from you. Um, I think the first thing I

would point out and get your reaction

to, it seems like this year was a

uniquely

big year for Darvis. Um, you know, this

happens every year and usually it's

like, you know, maybe one or two

headlines in the news and you see maybe

a clip of someone talking about it. But

it seems like this was a really big deal

in a way that it hasn't been in the

past. And in fact, we have verified this

by just looking at the search interest

in Daravos. It is already double that of

last year and five times that of 2022.

Search interest in the World Economic

Forum has almost doubled as well

compared to last year for whatever

reason. Maybe Trump. Everyone cares a

lot about Daros this year. It's actually

important which is kind of surprising

because I think a lot of people have

been saying over the past few years that

these kinds of conferences don't matter

anymore. Suddenly this one seems to.

>> Yeah. So first it's easy to be cynical

about the World Economic Forum as am I

and Davos. But I think this kind of

stuff is actually important cuz it gets

people together who speak and I think

when you look someone in the eyes and

get to know them, you're less likely to

[ __ ] post them or raise terror. I don't

know. I think it's good that people get

together and talk at this level. Even

the guy who wrote Davos man, which is um

basically kind of [ __ ] posting the

people are here, they invite him.

They're they're, you know, they're

comfortable with that. So the what

you're talking about Davos isn't about

the content. It's about having access to

the crowd and the people as is our most

good conferences. It's all about the

people, not the content. They do a

reasonable job with the content. I think

it's fine. Um the way I I don't know, a

decent litmus test for how crowded an

event is is the the hotel room rates.

And as you can see from the background

here, I'm in the equivalent of a Swiss

days in. This is not luxury. They don't

even offer a lunch. I've been living off

cereal. No joke. Um, and it's 2,200

Swiss Franks a night. So, what is that

about 2500 or $3,000? And if Trump gives

another speech, the dollar, this will

probably be $11,000 by tomorrow. Um, so

look, it is it is packed. The energy,

the energy is high, but the vibe is like

the world order is fraying and it feels,

you know, it just feels insecure.

There's just a lack of optimism and it

doesn't feel like anyone's stepping into

the void. And I feel like it was a big

opportunity for the Chinese delegation

to be here and basically try and say,

"We are your friends." And by the way, I

don't think it's a good idea for all of

these Western nations to decide, oh,

we're going to cozy up to China. And I

interviewed Neil Ferguson, the

historian, yesterday, and his whole

thing was, "Yeah, the US may be bullying

and pushing around people, but what's

the plan B here to go to an

authoritarian government? Like, what's

the plan B?" And I'm like, "Well, they

can work with each other." It's a very

weird vibe here. I kind of wish you were

here. I'd be curious to get a young

person's take on it.

>> This is the most powerful assembly of

people in the world, I think. And the

vibe is unsettled. Uh the vibe is

restless. Like not restless like let's

get out and do something together. It's

restless like the masters of the

universe are sitting on companies that

are overvalued that also seem to present

real externalities as did the internet

in 99 and we didn't realize it then but

now we realize it now. And the

individual that everyone's focused on is

threatening invasions then pulling back.

Threatening tariffs then pulling back.

And there's just a lack. I I'll use one

metaphor and get your response. Two of

the four most valuable companies in the

world. I was saying in 1999 it was

Microsoft was the most valuable company

in the world. Then it was General

Electric. Then it was Saudi Aramco and

then it was number four. Oh, Walmart.

And now the most valuable companies are

Apple, Nvidia,

Saudi Aramco. It was Exxon back then.

Now it's Saudi Aramco. So there's still

an oil company in there. And number four

is Alphabet. Two of the four companies

that are the most valuable companies in

the world basically have operating

systems that everyone kind of lives

their life on, right? Android and iOS.

And when you have the operating system

that everyone operates on top of, you

get to dictate terms and building code

that naturally advantages your

applications and monetization. It's just

a great it's great to own the operating

system for all of business, right? And

the analogy I always use is that America

was really the operating system for the

entire West and all democracies. People

largely mimicked our laws, our economy,

our universities. When we spoke,

everyone tried to kind of follow. When

we went into wars, people followed us.

And now I think people are potentially

saying we might have to switch to

Android or another operating system. So

definitely a state of flux and uh

unease. What is it like? It's hard to

read the label from inside of the

bottle. What are your impressions from

outside of of Davos? It seems uh pretty

consistent with what you're experiencing

to me and that is everyone's gotten

together and they're all saying

different flavors of the same thing

which is we're [ __ ] in some way. you

know, whether it's valuations or or more

importantly, I would say um just the

global order, which in fact the Trump

administration has expressed the reason

that they are going, or at least Howard

Lutner wrote this, the reason they're

going to Daros is he said not to support

the existing global order, but to

challenge it directly. And I think he

probably thought that he was the one who

was going to go in and have that hot

take. Seems like that's pretty much

everyone's take at this event. Everyone

agrees whatever setup we have right now

isn't really working. And I think the

same thing is true of the inequality

problem that we keep on talking about. I

noticed that was one of Larry Frink's

big points is that the inequality that

we're experiencing is untenable. And it

is interesting to have the CEO of

BlackRock saying that to all of the most

powerful and probably richest people in

the world and they're saying it, you

know, in in the mountains of Daros while

everyone's wearing their Laura Panico.

It's like it's visually quite

interesting and yeah, I think unsettling

is a good way to put it. I think one

thing else that's been interesting and I

want to hear if you have been around for

this. It sounds like a lot of beef is

just exploding over there. And I think

one example would be that I read that

Howard Lutnik got heckled at a dinner.

Apparently he was like talking and

people in the audience were literally

heckling him and then the president of

the European Central Bank gets up and

leaves while he's talking.

Um, I'd be curious to know if you were

there for that, if that's true, but

that's a good story. So, I think that

contributes to why people are so

interested in Daros this year.

>> It's funny. So, you knew more about

what's going on than I did and it it all

makes sense now. I sat at a table and I

had the ultimate flex. I sat at Larry

Frink's table and there was uh Madame

Lagard, the head of the European Central

Bank, and she joked that she was called

on because um so she wouldn't leave. I

guess and I didn't understand the joke,

but I guess the joke was she left

another dinner uh with Howard Lutnik. Um

I think people are pretty fed up with

Americans and especially the American

leadership. the the the best speech and

the most well-received speech was uh

Prime Minister Mark Carney. I think a

key kind of call sign for leadership is

to be forceful yet dignified. He wasn't

personal. He didn't, you know, he didn't

call Trump names. He didn't he wasn't

emotional. He just basically said,

"Look, Canada is not as big as the US,

but we are a very well-resourced nation.

We have a lot of fantastic industry. We

have debt capacity. we don't want to

lose this partnership, but if we're

forced to and we're not being treated

like partners, Canada will take some

pain and we'll be fine. And that we need

to acknowledge we're moving to a new

world order. And supposedly um I talked

to someone in the Canadian delegation.

He wrote the speech himself. And I

thought it was very powerful. I I

remember thinking so back to in early 90

in the early 90s my first company out of

a business school I started brand

strategy room called Profit. My biggest

client was Levi Strauss company and we

were just over at the what's called the

plaza like every day having meetings and

the CMO of the company, a guy named Gord

Shank, really thoughtful, you know,

smart guy,

uh, said the woman running for for

running the whole engagement for me,

basically running the firm because it

was like 40% of our revenue was a woman

named Connie Hawquist who is like

arguably the most competent, impressive

person I've ever worked with. And

everybody just just loved working with

Connie. And Gourd said, "I have this

great idea." And he called me and I

called him back and he said, "You know

how they have student exchanges? What if

we exchange one of our great employees

at Levi Strain Company with Connie

Hawquist and she could come here for 6

months?" And I'm like, "Who do you want

to exchange Connie with?" And he gave me

the name of this woman. And this woman

was just so awful in every way. I'm

like, "So you're trying to take out the

trash and take my A-Rod?"

And the reason I bring this up is is

there any way we can exchange like do

like a presidential swap for just like

six or 12 months? This is the guy the

West needs right now. And it's just too

bad that

I don't know if he was like chancellor

of Germany. I mean I like Macron. He's

fine. Um, but this guy, this guy Carney,

I wish he kind of commanded

a larger economy. Um, with a bigger

military, so to speak, but I don't know,

Canada is still pretty big. But I didn't

know that about Lutnik. That makes

sense. And actually, I find that kind of

encouraging. I don't believe in heckling

people at a dinner, but I got to be

honest, it sort of tickles my sensors.

What else have you heard?

>> We'll get to Colony speech in a moment.

You're right. It is unanimously agreed

upon that this was the speech of the

conference, potentially the speech of

the year. People in Canada, Canadians

are calling it the best speech in

Canadian history. So, this speech is a

big deal.

>> Um, just I want to hit some more kind of

drama points which I just find kind of

interesting as you say, tickles the

senses. Um, there was this great clip

where Howard Lutnik was speaking on a

panel um, talking about the future of

America. And I don't know if you saw

this, but the reactions from the others

who are on the panel was absolutely

hilarious. This will really be for our

YouTube crowd. You kind of need to watch

it. Let's just play that clip. Why would

Europe agree to be net zero in 2030 when

they don't make a battery? So if they go

2030 they are deciding to be subservient

to China who makes the batteries. Why

would you do that? Why would the United

States of America which has oil and

natural gas try to convert to all

electricity? China does not have oil and

natural gas. Electricity and electric

cars make perfect sense to them. That is

practical and logical.

>> Okay. Another clip that has been making

the rounds, I think is pretty important,

is when Trump was speaking about the

Greenland situation, which was obviously

the most important news event in the

world. Um, and he confused Greenland

with another country.

>> I'm helping NATO and I and I've until

the last few days when I told him about

Iceland, they loved me.

They called me daddy, right? The last

time very smart man said, "He's our

daddy. He's running it. I was like

running it. I went from running it to

being a terrible human being. I don't

know that they'd be there for us.

They're not there for us on Iceland.

That I can tell you. I mean, our stock

market took the first dip yesterday

because of Iceland. So, Iceland's

already cost us a lot of money, which

was probably the most remarkable

event of the week. Um, and then also

there was this drama with Gavin Newsome,

uh, which Gavin Newsome talked about,

but apparently the White House denied

him from entering an event, um, which he

had been invited to speak at. And then a

a White House spokesperson issued a

statement. They said, quote, "No one in

Davos knows who third rate Governor

Nuskum is." So, I mean, it's kind of

just reality TV is playing out um on the

global stage right now. And I guess it's

it's hard to know what to make of that

because at the at one time it seems

like, you know, performance art. It

feels like WWE. But then at the same

time, we're seeing these massive market

moving decisions such as the decision to

I guess not use force against Greenland

or at least that's what Trump said which

spiked the markets around the world and

then tacoing which we need to get into

and that is Trump decides to pull the

tariffs on the EU because he says that

we have reached a framework of a future

deal for Greenland and then the S&P and

the NASDAQ and the Dow they all rise and

then you see bond yields which had

jumped to their highest levels since

September. It was a big deal when he was

threatening Greenland and then those

yields came back down. So a lot of

market activity that seems very

important but then you look at what's

actually happening in Daros. I mean it's

all kind of looks like a joke from the

outside. Um, so then we'll get into Mark

Carney's speech, but I guess I want to

get your reactions to

all of that.

>> They're making us and that as Americans

look like [ __ ] Just there's just no

other way around it. And Howard Lutnik

at Davos is a little bit like,

you know, a repo man is the valet at

your daughter's wedding. It just he just

shouldn't be here. He he just he he is

he is um what he says is stupid that

that somehow that we've been exploited

that we're a victim. If you look at 1945

to 2000 in global trade and every time

we increase globalization, America

disproportionately, if anyone was going

to [ __ ] about globalization in the

context of America, it would be our

trading partners as we sit as we ship

them iPhones and Nvidia chips at 45 to

95 points of gross margin and they ship

us lower margin products and we

massively get much greater shareholder

value. I mean, who on earth I mean, you

could argue China over the last 30

years, but who on earth over the LA who

has who has benefited more from

globalization

than the US? So, what he says makes no

[ __ ] sense and

they're all over the place. Their

decisions are totally sclerotic. Trump

looks like a, you know, he doesn't even

seem old. He just seems bumbling and

like he doesn't do his homework and he

doesn't can't get the name of the place

right and doesn't have good aids. He

doesn't have good teleprompterss.

>> That speech was absurd. I mean, were you

at the speech?

>> You couldn't get in. So, I watch it

outside. And quite frankly, I know this

sounds weird. I didn't want to be in the

same room as the guy. I just find the

whole idea of him and what he says and

the way he represents America is so

counter to everything I believe. Our

American ideals of strength, liberty,

grace, being the good guys. We're no

longer the good guys. That really pisses

me off. But people used to be cynical

about Americans and how obnoxious we

are. But I think most people if they had

to point to who the good guys were, they

would have said the US. And now more

people globally think ch they'd rather

be they trust China more, which is

insane. But back to about Governor

Nuome, I'm biased because I like the

governor, but I walked down the hall uh

into the main area and there was an

enormous crowd around one guy and

beaming like [ __ ] Rihanna meets

Arnold Schwarzenegger meets he just like

I don't know if it's his height, his

hair, his presence. He literally is

walking around Davos with this sort of I

am the next president energy and not in

an arrogant way. Everyone is just

fascinated

>> the Chad.

>> Yeah. Everyone is just fascinated with

the guy and his comments um are, you

know, he's definitely there's a bunch of

presidential hopefuls here and they, you

know, they all look like, you know,

they've been pulled out of the bargain

bin and then and then Governor Nuomo

shows up. Ton of senators here. What's

hilarious is no one gives a [ __ ] I

literally saw Lindsey Graham, Senator

Graham, you know, he's an important man

in a corner trying to find someone to

talk to to speak to, you know, and no

one no one, you know, no one wanted to

talk to this old man in the corner.

>> I love that visual. That's amazing.

>> But by far the biggest flex or the best

thing I sat next to Sasha Baron Cohen

last night and we rolled together. We

went and had drinks together.

>> Wow.

>> And my my favorite thing is I got

invited to this afterparty and he said,

"Can you leave my name at the door?"

front of my brother. I I don't think

you're going to have trouble getting in.

But I love how Sasha Baron Con is

worried about getting into an after

party at Davos. He's, by the way, middle

class Jew from the suburbs of London.

Super nice, super intelligent. We went

to

Justin um Trudeau and Katy Perry. Uh

hold your jokes. Uh had a dinner talking

about AI and they invited us and and uh

Sasha spoke. He is really he was like

he's very smart. I mean he really gets

this [ __ ]

>> Yeah. No, he's he's a legend. He's he's

his comedy is brilliant too. There is a

s There is a a sense in which it feels a

little bit like celebrity masturbation

circle. Like why is Sasha Banker? Why is

this comedian there?

>> You got asked by Larry.

>> No. Exactly.

>> And he adds some spice. He adds some sex

appeal to the whole thing. The whole

place doesn't he?

>> That's the thing. It's sex appeal. So

does Katy Perry. It's like Katy Perry's

there on the arm of Justin Trudeau.

>> Oh, she's there for Justin,

>> right? But it all starts to seem a

little bit like pop cultury. What are we

doing here? Is this just to hang out

with celebrities? Which, you know, I

agree. I'm sure it's cool

>> a little bit. I'm leaving early. I was

supposed to leave tomorrow. I'm going

home tonight. I'm kind of like, I'm not

raising money. I'm not running for

office. Why am I here? I want to go

home. I want to see my boys. Um, but

like up until this moment, I remember I

was really reminiscing in 1999 when I

was I don't know like 30 or 34. Um, I it

was like the biggest moment of my

professional life was getting invited

here. And now I'm it's like Vegas for

me. I was fine for the first 24 hours

and now I just can't wait to get out.

But um, most importantly, the most

striking thing is Sasha I'm sorry, is

Justin Trudeau's skin. Uh there's no way

he worked that hard as prime minister of

Canada. He does not look like a man

who's ever endured any stress. I think

he slept 12 hours a night, got up, did

some Pilates, did a juice cleanse.

>> Well, he's an expert on face masks,

right?

>> Yeah. Or or someone spread the DNA or

platelets of some young Honduran boy

from the v a village or something on his

face. The guy looks 19. I just I

couldn't stop staring at the guy and

he's been a world leader already. Like

Lindsey Graham looks like he worries a

lot. Lindsay looks like he's endured a

lot of stress in his lifetime, but not

Justin, not Prime Minister Trudeau.

We'll be right back after the break. And

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>> We're back with Profy Markets. Let's

talk about this Mark Connie speech

because this was probably the most

pivotal moment at the conference. Um I

mean the central message is basically

that the American

hegemony doesn't really work anymore.

that America's abusing its power and

that this era of globalization that

seemed to work isn't working. Um, let's

just listen to some of the highlights.

We are in the midst of a rupture, not a

transition. Great powers have begun

using economic integration as weapons,

tariffs as leverage, financial

infrastructure as coercion, supply

chains as vulnerabilities to be

exploited. The middle powers must act

together because if we're not at the

table, we're on the menu. This is not

sovereignty. It's the performance of

sovereignty while accepting

subordination. So, it seems like the

takeaway,

and I I'd be interested to know if

everyone agrees with this at Daros, but

the way the world is set up, our

globalist world where we have all of

these relationships and we all kind of

get along with these trade alliances and

we're part of these communities and, you

know, we're shipping stuff over from

China and shipping stuff over to China

and everyone's sharing each other's

stuff. That that no longer works. that

we're transitioning into a more

nationalist world um where it's sort of

every man for himself. And I guess the

thing that is striking is that this is

the thing that the US has been pushing

like we we want this. And then the

president of Canada comes out and says,

well, yeah, if you guys are bailing on

this, then okay, we can't do this

anymore. This doesn't work if you guys

don't sign up for it. Um what has been

the reactions from Daros? What did you

make of that speech? Like I said, I

thought it was the best speech to Davos.

I love that line. He said, "This is not

a transition. It's a rupture." Is that

how what would what was the line there?

He's I thought he was just an incredibly

impressive, eloquent, man. I hope at

some point wonderful thing about America

is it does tend to like ping back and

forth between different parties and

different sort of I don't know, thought

leadership. And I'd like to think the

next president is going to be incredibly

intelligent. And Mark Carney is that

kind of guy. He's just Yeah. He wrote

that speech himself. the to be fair

though and this was kind of Neil

Ferguson's whole thing was

I mean and I think there's some truth to

this. The EU hasn't the EU has been free

riding off the US's defense spending

assuming they don't have to they don't

have to spend for military for defense.

I mean, to a certain extent, we're by

far the largest contributor to NATO. And

I get that a war on Europe would be bad

for everybody, but it'd be really bad

for the Europeans. And the fact that the

US has been providing this defense

umbrella so they can spend money more

money on their seniors and social

citizens. And you know, quite frankly,

that is not that's asymmetric. That is

not fair. I think Trump got that right.

I just hope that their the music matches

the words here and they begin

coordinating and commanding the space

they occupy. And one of the masters in

the universe in the finance world said

something really powerful last night. He

said, "Look, difference between Europe

and US is said simply put is our capital

markets and the EU is just not holding

its own." uh from a economic standpoint

in France from an incentive standpoint

in France now pensioners make more money

than working age people. We keep talking

about how the US keeps voting seniors

more money old people can voting

themselves more money. Take that times

two or three and that's what Europe is

like and talking a big game about

Ukraine. I mean I think some of the

nations have really stepped up but

others have not. And so I think there's

some truth. There's a kernel of truth.

Now the question is, is it going to help

anybody? If you, the way I think of it

is just economically. The most powerful

nation will be the one with the biggest

GDP. I think we're about 25% of the

world's GDP, but we were the operating

system for 60 or 70% of it, which made

us unchallengeable.

The biggest mistake I believe that Trump

administration is making is believing

that a power that controls 25% of the

world's GDP or 30% even, maybe it's a

third, can muscle around everyone. the

the our ability to muscle around

everyone was to check with our other

limbs, other great democracies, or they

would take our lead. But if they say

we're out and you're now just a third of

the world's GDP and a third is somewhere

in the middle, not knowing what the [ __ ]

to do based on your blood sugar level,

and a third is quote unquote is our

adversaries, whether it's China or

Russia, that's a terrible place to be. I

feel like they just don't understand the

kind of the basics of math and game

theory. Well, I think that you can point

out the EU's reliance on the US for

defense spending without threatening to

invade their territories. Like, you can

you can make that point and get

somewhere with it. Um, without pissing

everyone off and further than pissing

everyone off, literally threatening

military action. And then obviously

going back on it because we saw taco and

Trump appears to just in the middle of

that speech realize, oh yeah, maybe I

shouldn't invade. Maybe that's not a

good idea. But in terms of the

consequences of this behavior and this

delivery of that point,

it does seem that this is um I mean

we've said this before, this is sending

our allies allies into our adversaries

arms. This is basically pitting the rest

of the world against America. Canada and

China just struck a new deal. So did the

UK. They're preparing a new deal with

China. EU and India just struck a deal.

The EU and Mexico have a new deal. As

we've said, like deals are happening.

They're just not happening with us. And

I think the question becomes

what's next in this story? Like agreed.

Europe and the relationship with

America. Questions should be asked as

they always should be asked. You know,

we should be investigating what is the

real dynamic here? Who has the leverage?

Is someone getting more out of the

relationship than the other? But now

that we've escalated things the way we

have, it could be that the rest of the

world just decides, you know what, we

can't trust these Americans. And in

fact, you know, Neil Ferguson makes the

point like, well, who you going to

trust? China? It's like maybe in fact

that appears to be what these nations

and these nations leaders are doing

right now. That appears to be what Kia

Stoma is is pursuing with China at the

moment. And then there's the question of

what power do they actually have over

us. And this is the big question. I'm

not sure they have much, but people are

asking the question. There's this

question of a coordinated attack on our

debt which is more and more relevant

because just this past November foreign

holdings of US treasuries hit a record

high and the holders that had the

biggest increases were the UK, Japan,

Belgium, Canada. People are asking the

question, could they just sell our debt

as China was doing earlier on and just

explode our interest rates? Maybe they

could. Could they just sell their

holdings of US stocks? Again, I don't

think they will because as you say, US

stocks are very important. Um, I don't

think you can just back out of that and

expect things to be all right. So, I

guess the question would be

what could Europe do in response to

America or what could the rest of the

world do? Could they coordinate with

Canada and could they coordinate with

Japan and perhaps China and launch an

attack on America in some way? Is that

even probable or likely? Is that even

worth talking about? What do you think?

It's hard to even imagine or outline

something to damage America, but

they're not court. Europe is still not a

union and this is unionizing them, so to

speak. But the prime minister, I think

it's the prime minister, president of

Finland, very powerful voice. But okay,

who speaks for the EU? I I just don't.

Is it Mron with his cool glasses? We

know it's not Starr. Who is it? Is it

Lagard? I mean, who

>> is it Mark Connie? Fair point.

>> He seems to be representative of the

whole movement.

>> If I were of them, I would have stood on

stage with Mark Carney and said, uh, you

know, Mark has shown real leadership

around this issue and have the head of

the, you know, the EU and all the member

nations saying these are the actions

we're taking and um, we've decided to

divest 10 to 20% of our holdings of

treasuries. We've decided as we no

longer can count on this as a reserve

currency. We're creating a new trading

block of western nations that doesn't

include the US. But they how you defeat

an enemy is you atomize them. You

fragment them. And the EU is already

fragmented. Also, the EU has not shown a

willingness to sacrifice.

They've not they're like, "Oh, wait. Cut

pensions such that we can increase our

military budget? No way." I mean, you

know, so look, the the core competence

of Russia and the reason why they're

invading Europe and and we might end up

with a terrible peace that just

schedules the next war is while there is

financial support,

you know, if if if somebody was invading

Canada and threatening if Cuba all of a

sudden invaded another nation proximate

to us, I think we would put American

troops on the ground.

So I think the EU is, you know, Europe

is not a union. They do not speak speak

with one voice. They need to then they

need to identify that leader. And and

two, and you're right, it might be

Carney. Uh they need to massively

increase the military spending. They

claim they claim they're doing it. So

far, there's not a lot of evidence

they're actually doing it. And then I

would outline a series of, you know, a

series of responses. A lot of people say

they've been more mature. They haven't

responded. I don't know. I think the

only thing that the Trump administration

understands this point and the only way

you treat a bully is at some point you

just got to turn around and kick him in

the nuts even if he's bigger than you

and see what happens. So, uh,

unification, picking one voice to speak

with and outlining a series of actions

that are sequential, not all at once.

But I think our vulnerability is around

um, our debt. You can't be in this kind

of debt without vulnerabilities. And

everyone says China's the biggest owner.

It's not. It's Japan. combined but

combined the EU is and Britain but these

guys cannot command the space they

occupy because they're not the largest

they're not the second largest economy

in the world which they would be in

aggregate there is they're a series of

kind of one-off economies they're the

seven dwarves none of them can you know

it's like the the fourth the 6th the 9th

the 14th the 22nd economy uh they don't

it's as if if we get split up and New

York decides to become a finance hub

with its own currency and Texas becomes

an energy economy and the the Midwestern

states become a manufacturing economy

trading with Canada. None of those

nations would be able to dictate or

strike back at China. But we have a

United States of America with one

military whether you like him or not,

one president that speaks for us and

commands, you know, our economic policy

and our military. The EU is just

theoretically a union. Yeah, I think

that definitely comes out at conferences

like this where, you know, Trump is is

swinging his dick around in various ways

and then everyone from Europe kind of

gets together and they they get up on a

stage and they stand in front of a

podium and they say, "This will not

stand. This is not acceptable." And

Emanuel McCron gets up there with his

aviator glasses and sort of waves his

fist around and talks about these ideas

about how this is a problem. And I agree

like at a certain point is like, okay,

what are you going to do about it? Is it

just going to be another speech in front

of another congregation of white people

in suits and ties or are you actually

going to take some action? You know, I

think a similar thing could be said

about Trump where he makes these threats

and he does move markets because he's so

erratic and also because he's so much

more powerful than anyone else on this

stage. But then ultimately he doesn't he

doesn't really do much about it. For

example, this taco situation. He says,

"I'm going to put these tariffs up.

We're going to take Greenland. We're

going to we're going to use any any

means necessary." And then he shows up

to the conference and he says, "No, no,

no. We won't use force." And actually,

no, we figured out a framework of the

deal. And so, actually, no, it's fine.

We're not going to do the tariffs

anyway. You could make the argument that

even he is not really getting anything

done himself.

We'll be right back. And for even more

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We're back with Crafty Markets. If you

look at the polling data right now, and

I think this is probably relevant to

what we saw in Daros, Trump currently

has the worst approval rating of any

secondterm president in history except

for Nixon. So, people do not trust him

right now. And I don't think the kinds

of things he's doing in Europe where not

only does he look untrustworthy, he also

looks weak because he's chickening out.

That's how everyone is describing it.

And then we're seeing similar numbers

coming from the Gen Z group, which I

also think is interesting. Trump's net

approval rating among Gen Z is now at

32%.

Compare that to February of last year,

about a year ago, the number was plus

10%. So, we're seeing just a decimation

of his favorability on various issues.

And I I think a big question going

forward is like what did that speech in

Daros and what did this taco do to his

legacy? What did it do to his popularity

in America? Are people watching what's

happening in Switzerland? And do they

care? It seems like they probably do.

Yeah, we're closer to it than most

people, but I mean a couple

observations. One, I think people are

incorrectly saying that this is the end

of globalization and it's a retreat to

like regional or spheres of influence. I

would argue Trump's rhetoric is

expediting globalization just without

us. And that is free trade barriers are

coming down. It's making for strange bed

fellows.

Uh, you I got to think that the EU and

Latin America and nations in Africa are

really like looking to to trade right

now to establish alliances, free trade

zones, political alliances across

border. People aren't saying well the

operating system of America is weakening

so we should withdraw and go inward.

They're saying no, we just need new

partners. And I think this has created a

level of promiscuity and willingness to

say, "Okay, we won't place taxation on

your wine here in Chile, France, because

you have a wine industry you're trying

to protect. We want to have more free

trade and we want to be less dependent

on selling our wines into America." And

the way you do that is by both of us

lowering trade barriers and agreeing to

get along. And so I think globalization

is actually on superdrive or overdrive

right now because there's so much

economic benefit to it. It's just that

all the supply chains are being um

rooted around us. And then

the thing I would push back on a little

bit though, I mean, one, Trump is hugely

unfavorable. This doesn't appear to be

working. But every time we take a poll,

everything goes down. It just seems like

people are just getting disgusted with

institutions in power. The Democrats

aren't doing much better.

And

the reality is, and I hate to admit

this, this isn't just a rogue Trump

because he's got 53 Republican senators

who all of them seem to be kind of I

mean, we we celebrate one of them maybe

saying, you know, Bill Cassie, I'm a

doctor. He realizes how dangerous and

stupid

RFK Jr. is, but he doesn't actually

[ __ ] do anything about it because

he's still scared of Trump. So the

majority of US senators are still kind

of walking in in in in step with the

president and they're elected.

>> But don't you think people are beginning

to see that like quite viscerally? Don't

you think the cowardice is becoming

almost too big to ignore, too obvious to

Americans? And

I think someone who's doing a great job

of pointing that out is Gavin Newsome. I

mean, you look at his speech at Davos

compared to, you know, these these other

leaders who seem to kind of tiptoe

around the problem. I mean, he's being

bold and as you say, you know, I forget

the words you use, but I think the word

that I would use would be aura. His aura

is

>> big. It's strong. He presents as

powerful now because he actually is

standing up. And it seems that that

actually is a winning move now, not this

cowardice and sickopactory that we've

gotten so tired of and so used to. I

mean, Scott Besson, every time he gets

on stage, he looks like a total fool.

And I think people are seeing that

because it's so obvious how weak these

people are. So to see someone present a

vision of strength, to have an actual

spine, to have stones, to have balls,

that's quite interesting. That's quite

compelling right now.

>> Yeah, I see it on the Democratic side at

least in some form. I would still argue

they haven't shown real testicles. I'd

be drawing up all sorts of criminal

indictments and reminding people the

statute the statute of limitations for

murder is never. And I would be coming

out and saying I believe the following

ICE agents are probably guilty of

reckless endangerment of life and

perhaps seconddegree murder. And I plan

to try and encourage our Department of

Justice to investigate them when we have

a real Department of Justice. So, I want

to remind our ICE agents that the

statute of limitations on murder is

never and there's no such thing as

absolute immunity. It doesn't exist. Uh,

but I haven't seen I haven't heard a

Democrat do that or propose it in a way

and show up at Minnesota or large

gatherings of ice and say, "Hey guys, I

just want to communicate something about

this this law I'm planning to pursue on

January of 20 29. So, just think about,

you know, just think about what you're

doing." Anyways, and I don't see a lot

of it. I still don't see a lot of it uh

on the Republican side. I don't see the

backbone. We celebrate small instances

of it and we highlight it, but I don't

unfortunately yet I don't see a lot of

the cracks we've all been waiting for.

In my view, if you're honest about this,

they're not I mean, if I believe what

he's done has shown that he's reckless,

putting us in real harm's way, physical

danger, increased the likelihood of a

nuclear conflict, bad for the economy, I

think corrupt. He's increased his net

worth by $1.2 billion. I think under any

other president, a Democratic president,

this would be cause for an impeachment.

And you would need, we have 47 senators.

It would get through the House probably,

would it? Now, I don't know. Um, but

then you need 66 senators. It's sort of

you would need 19 Republican senators.

If eight or 10 Republican senators

showed up and said, "Boss, you are

[ __ ] out of control and you need to

dial it back." Or if they bring up

impeachment, we'll be eight or 10 of the

16. I think he would I think Susie Wilds

would whisper in his ear, "Okay, you

need to dial it back." All of them are

scared to do that because I if one or

two say he's like, "I'm primaring you

and I'm still the man and I'll get you

kicked out and you won't get

reservations at your favorite place in

DC." So, I see an incredible I see, you

know, if you were to write

a book about Republican leadership right

now in the Senate would be profiles and

cowardice. I mean, supposedly they're

all saying behind the scenes this guy's

off the rails, but they won't [ __ ] do

anything about it. I mean, well, boss,

that's why you're elected. you're

elected to do the hard things when it's

hard or to the right do the you know to

do the right thing when it's hard.

>> I think one interesting question you

actually are behind the scenes. I mean

Daros is as far into the swamp as you

could perhaps get.

>> Mhm.

>> I mean I'm astounded by the cowardice on

both sides. I'm astounded by the

cowardice in business leadership as

well. I'm sort of astounded. You know,

sometimes I'll do like a a media hit and

they'll be like, "Oh, like is it okay if

we talk about Trump? Like, can we talk

about something that he said?" I'm I'm

I'm like, "Yeah, obviously." Like,

that's totally fine. I'm very surprised

with the with how scared everyone is

with the extent to which people seem to

want to tiptoe around these issues.

You're in the room right now.

Is that the vibe in the room? Are people

being kind of hesitant and concerned and

holding themselves back when it comes to

expressing their true opinions on the

issue?

>> I think American senators and special

interest groups are afraid because

Donald Trump, like any strong man, has

figured out the algorithm is to reward

your allies with monetary compensation.

Whether it's the kids of Howard Lutnik

who get an investment in their shitcoin

from the UAE after we agree to let the

UAE have our most sophisticated chips. I

mean just I can't even I I just can't

even imagine what would have happened if

Obama tried a fraction of this [ __ ]

>> Unbelievable. So,

and then also to punish your enemies, to

go after them and really try and make

their lives miserable, including

threatening prison, having FBI agents

raid your house at early in the morning

if they don't like, you know, former

security adviser jumble what you've

said. So, that's working. I think people

are really intimidated. The Europeans, I

would describe the meetings I've been

in, they're just so damn polite. They

don't There's so many Americans in the

room.

>> It's the end of them. They're also

trying to curry favor with a lot of

these startups to build offices in their

regions. They don't want to cut off

their nose despite their face. So,

they're incredibly

I won't even say, you know, they just

demonstrate a lot of grace and they're

very polite. Um, but I wouldn't describe

it as they're cowtowing or scared of

them. They're just these people are just

very dignified. These people like all

went to prep school in Switzerland and

are, you know, they eat with the right

fork.

>> Isn't that the problem, though? It's

almost like that's the problem. It's

like these people, they're too polite,

they're too sheltered, and we've got

this wrecking ball who's [ __ ]

everything up wherever he goes. And

everyone's too polite to do anything

about it, to confront the problem, to

say things as they really mean it.

That's got to be one of the biggest

obstacles in the way of Europe is their

own politeness that they're not willing

to just say what they think.

>> They could have said, "Look, Carney,

you're you you've captured the moment.

We want you to turn up the volume and

during your speech, we want two things.

One, at the end, we want you to outline

a series of actions, and we're going to

have all 27 member uh states of the EU

sitting behind you."

Um, that's what I would have done. And

uh, but yeah, it's all sort of they're

polite and atomized

and all trying to get anthropic to open

their next office in Helsinki.

>> So, and it's true. Also, you got to give

it to you got to right now American

innovation doesn't seem to be

sputtering.

It doesn't, you know, it it's people I

was with Hamont Tana, the guy who runs

General Catalyst. They're making

enormous bets. enormous bets. I mean,

the these guys these guys have balls the

size of [ __ ] Mars. They're making

multi-billion dollar bets on things and

in different areas and healthc care and

defense tech and you know, it's like,

okay, what you know, Germany feels like

it's paralyzed by the fact that it's

waking up to the notion that it's

getting the [ __ ] kicked out of it on a

manufacturing level from China. I mean,

they're just like, okay, how do we deal

with that? That's probably a bigger

threat to Germany right now is China.

Anyway, this is um I mean just saying it

my blood pressure goes up. This is very

very unsettling. I do think this might

be a pivot point that that okay,

we've kind of had it with these guys. Uh

Christine Lagard walking out on on the

commerce secretary is a pretty big deal,

you know. Um so anyways,

anyway, I'm not supposed to say anyways.

Anyway,

>> I like Anyways, uh we will be discussing

this more on another episode, but you've

got more to do at Davos. So, let's take

a look at the week ahead. We will see

consumer confidence for January. The

Federal Reserve will make its first

interest rate decision of the year on

Wednesday. It's also a huge earnings

week. We will see reports from

Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Tesla, ASML,

United Health, Boeing, Starbucks,

Loheed, Martin, Blackstone, Exon Mobile,

and Chevron. Scott, this is the part

where I ask you for a prediction. Um, I

would love for a prediction on what is

going to happen with this Greenland

Europe situation, but I get that it's

fresh, so you can pass on that. But if

you have one, I'd love to hear it. I

think Greenland Europe is nothing but

just unnecessary self-inflicted injury

that further cements our brand as

chaotic and coercive versus alliances.

Um I also think it's a bit of a

distraction from what is a more

significant action and this is my

prediction. Uh I think the US is going

to strike Iran uh imminently. I think if

you look at ship movements and things

like boring stuff like movements of the

the the aircraft that refuel uh bombers

and fighter aircraft um I think there's

a lot of military movements in the

Middle East right now and this is all

public information the you know USS

Abraham Lincoln aircraft carry strike

group is transiting from the South China

Sea towards the US central command area

have 15 fighter jets and high mars have

repositioned in the region. And this

might just be because it's hot there

right now and they want to be ready, but

I think that I think Trump loves the

flex and the recognition and the macho r

he uh earned from his actions in

Venezuela.

And also Neil Ferguson said something I

agree with uh and that is if if there

aren't military strikes

uh from the US and we don't weigh in

against the regime with probably

coordinating with Israel, he put the

likelihood that the regime stands at

90%.

And just given the the opportunity,

given that we have a a president who

loves to flex the military,

uh, and um given the vulnerability right

now of the regime, and if Trump can take

credit for toppling the Islamic

Republic, I think that's a pretty

significant win. Um, so whether you

think it's a good idea or not, I happen

to think it's a great idea. Uh, and I'm

just infuriates me that no one seems to

give a [ __ ] about Iran in the US when

they have been one of the most

oppressive misogynistic cultures of the

last century. Um, so anyways, in some I

think that we're going to see military

strikes against the Islamic Republic in

the next couple weeks.

Thank you for listening to Prophecy

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