Jen, it's great to see you. And I want to go back a couple of weeks

from when you talked to us because you've got a lot of people talking here

in the NEWSROOM, as you described, a millennia old empire.

Right. And the prospects of toppling the

ayatollah. Every simulation you said the military

has done is that if you took out the ayatollah, you empower the IRGC.

I know that you're a sage gen, but I could also ask you if we've simply

forgotten some of the lessons of the past.

First of all, Jerry, thanks for having me back.

It's great to see you. You know, this is a circumstance in

which I wish I had not been right. But I do think that that is, in fact,

what we are. What we are seeing a lot of attention

is, of course, being paid to the lines of succession, particularly as various

regime figures are killed in U.S. and Israeli strikes.

But particularly with the with the naming of Mossad, I

mean, excuse me. And, you know, whether whatever state he

may be in, all reports are that that this was an installation more or less by

the IRGC. So I do think we're seeing that

consolidation of power. What do you think of the talk of troops

on Kharg Island? Occupy that position and use it as

leverage to reopen the strait? Is this something that could work?

I mean, certainly not on its own. I as Secretary Panetta said, I think

that, you know, you would have to secure parts of of the Iranian border itself in

order along the along the Gulf, in order to air along the strait, in order to

really secure a passage. I would note that the reason one of the

many reasons that this has not been undertaken in the past, despite decades

of, I think, U.S. administrations, Israeli governments

wanting to dislodge this, this regime is precisely for this reason, because the

ability of Iran to to disrupt the strait has been well known and always seen as,

you know, no pun intended, but the nuclear option.

And that does seem to be where we are at now.

And getting it back open is proving, I think, to be every bit as difficult as

everyone feared. Boy, so the secretary also talked about

what would be required to keep the strait open, the number of troops

involved, and we've already started to pulverize.

There are military capability in that area.

General Dan Cain said A-10 Warthogs are at it.

We've got Apache helicopters at it. If this continued for some more time,

another month even. Would that be an easier exercise or is

it simply just not acceptable to be wrong once if

you have an errant attack coming off a speedboat that hits a cargo vessel, then

all of this is for not exactly you know, it's not just about air or land

superiority. It's it's the fact that it doesn't take

a lot for for Iran to continue to disrupt, whether it's drones, whether

it's mines, you know, exactly as you say, whether it's a speedboat passing

by. And so now that this has been unleashed

and convincing, you know, and it's not about going on TV and telling people

that it is now safe for transit, but it's about insurance companies and

transit lines having that confidence. And so restoring the confidence that

Iran will not utilize those tactics in the future, I think is going to be a

very, very hard sell regardless of what we do militarily.

And the other thing I would note to that is, you know, I think there's no doubt

that there have been significant tactical successes through this.

And yet we still keep we still keep attacking.

Right. Which says that despite the president's

assertions, we have not, in fact, taken out all of their capabilities.

And so those can continue over time to be rebuilt, reasserted.

And so, you know, it really muddies the water as far as what an off ramp to this

could could in reality look like. When you were acting principal deputy

assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, what would your thought

have been right now on a potential regional conflict?

How close are Iran's neighbors to engaging?

So I think we are continuing to see them do everything in their power.

I mean, they take hit after hit and are clearly resisting

what is a very understandable instinct to hit back out of concerns that the

damage that we've seen so far just expands if they engage in this conflict

in an offensive way. That being said, you know, as as you've

alluded to, the the economic and global economic damage globally, but certainly

to to the Gulf states and their long term economic visions cannot be

overstated. It is it is catastrophic.

And so I am watching that carefully. How how long can they endure this

without feeling like they need to take a more direct role in it?

No, that would be a big deal. And I can only imagine the market

reaction. What's $200 billion tell you?

Jen, before you leave us today, that's the figure we're expecting for a

supplemental budget request and people are trying to read into that.

Does that mean restocking all of the supplies we gave to Ukraine, or is this

implying some sort of anticipation of a longer conflict?

What do you buy with 200 billion? You buy a lot with $200.

And there's no question that our stockpiles do need to be replenished.

And so from that angle, I think that those numbers are not as stunning as one

might think. But it also does suggest that this

conflict, you know, which initially was described as very short, we're now

several weeks and I don't see a resolution to this in the next two or

three, two or three weeks at least. And, you know, if you do insert boots on

the ground, rather, whether on Kharg Island or on the coast of Iran itself,

and that that complicates certainly what the outlook is for then pulling them

back and for this conflict really coming to resolution.

So I think the 200 billion number is is is concerning.