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China Just Shut Down Gold Trading

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China Just Shut Down Gold Trading

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604 segments

0:00

So, the battle for what is money and who

0:02

controls it just got really interesting.

0:05

At the start of the year, some investors

0:07

apparently made a bet that gold could be

0:10

worth as much as $20,000 per ounce by

0:13

the end of the year. Now, today, gold is

0:15

worth closer to $4,000. But what's

0:18

interesting is that on June 24th, one of

0:21

China's biggest banks, the Industrial

0:23

Commercial Bank of China or the ICBC,

0:26

announced that they were shutting down

0:28

their paper gold trading for their

0:30

retail investors. What does that mean?

0:33

That means on July 24th, if you're a

0:36

Chinese citizen who wants to trade gold

0:38

through their bank, your access will get

0:41

switched off. Now, the ICBC is not the

0:43

only bank doing this. It was also their

0:46

postal savings bank of China that did it

0:48

first, then Pingan Bank, then China

0:51

Guangfa Bank announced it in June. So

0:53

some of their biggest financial

0:55

institutions one after another are now

0:57

pulling the plug on retail trading.

0:59

Right? The question is why is China

1:01

doing this? The official story that

1:04

they're telling us is that they are

1:06

protecting citizens from the volatility,

1:08

right? The extreme up and down movements

1:11

of gold. They're doing this because back

1:13

in January 29th, spot gold hit an

1:15

all-time high over $55,000 per ounce,

1:18

but then it crashed. As I'm making this

1:21

video, gold is trading at around $4,000

1:23

per ounce. That's a drop of about 28%

1:26

from the peak. So, of course, to protect

1:29

people, China's banks have increased

1:31

what's called the margin requirement to

1:35

140%. Which is a record high for the

1:38

industry. A margin requirement, by the

1:40

way, is the amount of collateral someone

1:42

needs to borrow money. And by increasing

1:45

that percentage, like they just did, it

1:48

means you need to have a lot more money

1:50

to borrow less money. China is now

1:53

demanding more collateral than what the

1:55

investment is even worth. Okay, so the

1:57

official reason is gold is volatile,

2:01

retail traders are getting hurt, and big

2:03

government has to step in to protect

2:05

them. Now, the unofficial story though

2:09

is probably what's actually happening,

2:11

which is the battle for real money and

2:15

what that money should be worth. Right?

2:17

Think about what China is really

2:19

shutting down. They are getting rid of

2:22

margin trading. They're getting rid of

2:24

the leveraged deferred contracts, the

2:27

paper gold. Basically, the easiest way

2:29

to understand it is they are getting rid

2:31

of the speculation, the gambling. But

2:35

physical gold, that's all good. They

2:37

could still buy and sell that. They're

2:39

not stopping people from owning gold.

2:42

They are stopping people from trading

2:44

the paper claims against gold. Okay. So,

2:47

why is China doing that? The theory says

2:51

it's because the real price of gold

2:54

should be way higher than it actually

2:56

is. But the reason that it's not is

2:59

because it's being manipulated and

3:01

suppressed by the paper markets. and it

3:04

has been for decades. So, in order to

3:06

have what's called real price discovery,

3:10

in other words, in order to figure out

3:11

what something is really worth, you need

3:13

to first shut down people's ability to

3:17

gamble on the price of it. Now, if this

3:20

were true, we'd probably see China as a

3:24

nation start to buy a lot more gold than

3:26

usual. And that's exactly what they've

3:28

been doing. In May of this year, they

3:31

bought 163 tons of gold, the most since

3:34

March 2024. And that's not just true of

3:37

China. That is true of all central banks

3:40

around the world, which have been buying

3:43

way more gold. In fact, as much as 15

3:47

times more than they've been telling us.

3:50

It makes sense, right? Which is also why

3:53

the Chinese government is launching a

3:56

brand new gold clearing and settlement

3:58

system. It's a system that's designed to

4:00

make China, not London or New York, but

4:02

China as the place where the price of

4:05

gold actually gets set. Now, once you

4:08

put all of this together, central banks

4:11

and nations secretly buying gold and

4:14

taking steps to get rid of the paper

4:16

markets and building the settlement hub

4:18

there, it all starts to make a lot more

4:20

sense. So today, let's speculate on what

4:25

could be really happening and why

4:27

China's doing this right now and what it

4:29

all means for our investments and the

4:31

dollar. So with that said, let's get

4:33

into it. Hi, my name is Andre Jick. Hope

4:35

you're doing well. Come for the finance

4:36

and stay for the battle of money and

4:38

gold. So to understand why China

4:41

shutting down their paper gold market is

4:43

such a big deal, you have to first

4:45

understand what paper gold is and how it

4:48

works. And the easiest way I can explain

4:50

it is like this. Let's say I've got this

4:53

sick Pokemon card called the ancient

4:55

Miu, right? It's a physical card that is

4:57

sitting in my safe. It's real. I can

5:00

hold it. There's only one of it. Now

5:02

imagine then I write up a little paper

5:05

certificate that says this entitles you

5:08

to one of these muse. And then I sell it

5:11

to you, right? You're happy because

5:12

you've got a claim on my card, but maybe

5:15

you don't actually want to custody the

5:16

card because someone might steal it and

5:20

you're afraid. So, you just hold the

5:21

certificate. It's easier. It also trades

5:24

like the real thing. But you never come

5:26

to collect it from me. So, here's the

5:28

problem. Once I realize you're never

5:31

actually going to show up and ask for

5:33

your card, what stops me from writing a

5:37

second certificate and then selling it

5:39

to someone else and then a third and a

5:41

fourth and a tenth. Right now there's 10

5:44

people who think they own this Mew, but

5:48

there's still only one card. I've sold

5:51

10 claims on it, though. On paper, the

5:55

supply will show that there's 10 MUS. In

5:59

reality, nothing's changed, right?

6:01

There's still one card in existence. So,

6:04

what's it really worth? Well, if the

6:06

market is pricing my card based on the

6:08

evidence it has, which is all that paper

6:11

floating around, the price should be

6:14

onetenth of what it should be worth.

6:18

Because as far as the market can tell,

6:19

these muses are everywhere, right? Why

6:21

would the price go up when there's so

6:24

much of them available? That's paper

6:26

supply. Now, the second everybody walks

6:28

in at the same time and says, "You know

6:30

what, Andre? Actually, I want my card

6:33

now." The whole system would fall apart

6:35

because nine out of 10 people would find

6:37

out that their paper certificate is

6:40

worth nothing. That is the overly

6:43

simplified version of paper gold. Now,

6:46

in the big western markets like London

6:48

and Comx in New York, most gold that

6:52

trades every day is never physically

6:54

delivered. They're what are called

6:56

contracts. They are claims. People buy

6:59

and sell these pieces of paper that

7:01

represent claims on the gold. And the

7:03

majority of people never intend to take

7:06

a single physical bar, right? Same as

7:09

the MU example. And just like my card

7:11

scheme, that means they can also write

7:15

way more claims than there are actual

7:18

pieces of metal sitting in their vaults.

7:21

Now, estimates for how much paper gold

7:24

there is varies cuz no one knows how

7:26

much gold there really is in the world

7:28

or how much paper there is. But the

7:31

point is there is dramatically more

7:33

paper than there is physical real gold.

7:38

What that means then is that the price

7:40

of gold today is probably lower than

7:44

where it should be. That's how you

7:47

suppress the price of an asset. Now,

7:50

hold on. Where's my proof? Like, I can't

7:53

just say we think there's more paper

7:55

gold there. Trust me, bros. If what I'm

7:57

saying is true, how would we know?

8:01

There's a couple ways that we might know

8:03

that that could be true. First, there

8:06

would be a disconnect between the price

8:09

of the physical thing and the paper

8:12

thing. Think about it like this. If the

8:15

world was 100% honest and this Miu only

8:19

had one paper claim on it worth $100,

8:22

the card and the claim would trade

8:25

perfectly one to one because the world

8:28

knows all the details. But the moment it

8:31

becomes a casino where no one knows how

8:34

many muse there are and how many paper

8:35

claims there are, then what you'd see is

8:38

a natural price divergence of these

8:42

assets. People might want to pay more

8:44

for the physical thing than the paper

8:46

thing. They'd be like, I don't know if I

8:48

trust this system, so I'll happily pay a

8:51

little premium for the real thing. Now,

8:54

the tighter the spread between the real

8:58

and not real, the more honest the market

9:02

thinks the game is, the bigger the

9:05

spread between the two, the more the

9:07

market thinks something funny might be

9:10

going on. Makes sense, right? That's one

9:13

way that we might know. Okay, then. So

9:16

then the question is, have we ever had

9:19

price divergences between the real and

9:22

the paper thing? And it turns out that

9:24

we have. In the silver markets, for

9:26

example, the peak hit in January. It was

9:29

temporary, but it was something like a

9:32

40% price differences between the

9:35

physical and the paper markets. Now, the

9:37

spread today is much smaller, but it's

9:40

still not nothing. There is still a

9:43

premium for physical silver. Now the

9:45

spread in gold is much much smaller

9:48

which means in theory maybe all is fair.

9:53

But is it really? China wants to know

9:56

how real is this casino. Let's go and

9:59

find out what the price should really be

10:02

by getting rid of paper speculation.

10:06

This is one way to tell that something

10:08

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10:11

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10:12

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10:40

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10:48

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10:56

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11:36

And now, let's get back to it. Okay, so

11:38

the second way to tell the casino might

11:40

not be telling us the truth is how

11:42

investors start to behave. Cuz think

11:45

about it. If you knew the paper was

11:48

maybe fake and you knew the real price

11:51

should be higher, what would you

11:53

actually do? You'd do two things. You'd

11:57

sell the paper and you'd buy the

11:59

physical thing, right? You'd get out of

12:01

the certificate market and you'd start

12:04

buying a lot more of the real thing. So

12:06

the question is, is anybody actually

12:08

doing that? And the answer is yes, they

12:11

are. In fact, the people doing this are

12:14

the most sophisticated money markets on

12:16

the whole planet. It's the people that

12:18

print the paper currencies. It's the

12:20

central banks. They have been buying

12:22

physical gold at the fastest pace in

12:24

recorded history. In the first quarter

12:27

of this year alone, central banks bought

12:30

a net 244 tons of gold. That is the

12:34

strongest first quarter ever recorded.

12:37

And it's also not a onetime thing.

12:39

They've now bought over 200 tons in 10

12:42

of the last 11 quarters. And the crazy

12:45

part is that a big chunk of that buying

12:47

was never officially reported, which is

12:49

kind of interesting. According to the

12:52

World Gold Council, they say their

12:54

number includes an estimate of

12:56

undisclosed purchases, which means gold

12:59

these banks are buying but not telling

13:02

anyone about it. Now, this shadow

13:04

accumulation has allegedly been

13:06

happening since 2022. the official

13:09

numbers that banks are reporting, that's

13:11

just the minimum, right? The real number

13:13

is probably way bigger, maybe as much as

13:16

10 times bigger, especially for China.

13:19

Now, that behavior, that's the first

13:22

half of it. They'd buy more of the real

13:24

thing. But it's also what they're

13:27

selling to buy it. What are they

13:29

selling? That would be US treasuries,

13:32

the bond market. Because for 50 years,

13:35

the strategy for all central banks was

13:38

doing the opposite of this. Central

13:40

banks took your extra dollars and they

13:43

parked them in US treasuries. They

13:45

basically lent the money back to America

13:48

to earn a little bit of interest. That

13:50

was the safe thing to do and everybody

13:52

did it. Any country that didn't do it in

13:54

fact and tried to route around the

13:55

dollar got a lot more freedom in their

13:57

country. Right? But now we're seeing a

14:01

reversal of that strategy. Foreign

14:03

central banks have essentially quit

14:05

growing their pile of treasuries over a

14:07

decade ago. And lately, some of the

14:09

biggest holders have actually been

14:11

selling US treasuries. China has dumped

14:14

hundreds of billions of dollars of US

14:16

debt and rotate it into gold. Now,

14:19

they're not dumping all of it at once.

14:21

That would not be smart because they

14:23

want to extract as many dollars as they

14:24

can. If they sold all of it at once,

14:27

they'd crash the value of their own bond

14:29

holdings. So they have to do it slowly

14:31

and strategically. That's true for all

14:34

the other countries holding on Treasury

14:35

bonds as well. But what they're selling

14:38

basically is the paper promise of

14:41

supposedly the most powerful government

14:42

on Earth. And they're doing that to buy

14:45

gold that pays them zero interest. And

14:47

on paper that sounds kind of crazy cuz

14:50

why would anyone trade an asset that

14:52

pays you for an asset that doesn't? You

14:55

would only do that if you no longer

14:58

trusted the promise of that paper. What

15:00

was the promise? The promise was give us

15:04

your paper, park your money into our

15:06

assets, we'll be honest, we'll protect

15:09

you, we'll trade with you, and your life

15:11

will be awesome. Right? But after the

15:13

Iran conflict exposed the US and after

15:16

decades and decades of the forever war

15:18

model, which was funded by money that

15:20

could be printed to infinity, giving the

15:22

US unchecked power, the world sort of

15:25

had enough. The world does not want

15:27

dollars. It wants real money. They want

15:30

what economists call multipolarity,

15:32

where it's not just one nation that

15:34

rules the world, but many nations that

15:37

contribute. Now, if this theory was

15:40

true, how would we know that it might be

15:43

true? What would be the evidence? Well,

15:45

first, we'd see those US treasuries

15:47

being sold off over a long period of

15:50

time. And we have been seeing that. We

15:53

would also be seeing investors selling

15:55

paper gold. And we have been seeing that

15:58

money has flowed out of US gold ETFs.

16:02

We'd also see gold as an asset surpass

16:05

treasuries as the reserve asset for

16:07

central banks. We are seeing that gold

16:11

now represents a bigger share than US

16:13

treasuries. Gold demand in China also

16:16

hit a record 207 tons which breaks a

16:18

record that stood for over a decade. So

16:21

combine all this together. How do we

16:23

know the casino might not be telling us

16:26

the truth? We might see things like the

16:29

prices diverging between paper and the

16:32

physical markets. We'd see the world

16:34

selling the paper claims. And we'd see

16:36

the US export gold. And we are. Gold is

16:40

going east. And that's because gold is

16:42

the number one export out of the US for

16:45

several months in a row now. Central

16:47

banks worldwide are dumping the dollar's

16:49

paper and hoarding the real thing and

16:51

hiding how much. Right? The question is,

16:54

is that the evidence of an honest

16:57

market? This theory says no, it isn't.

17:00

This is not what a healthy, honest

17:02

market looks like. All right, but

17:04

there's another piece of evidence that

17:05

shows us this theory could be true. And

17:08

it's because China told us way back in

17:11

2014. Remember when the head of the

17:13

Shanghai Gold Exchange stood up and gave

17:15

a speech at what's called the LBMA, the

17:17

London Bullion Market Association, which

17:19

by the way is the Western Paper Gold

17:22

Pricing System. So while he was there,

17:25

he looked at the gold establishment and

17:26

he said, "Shanghai gold will change the

17:29

current situation of consumption in the

17:32

east priced in the west." And then he

17:35

said, "When China has the right to speak

17:37

in the international gold market, gold's

17:40

price will be revealed." So basically

17:42

he's saying once China has a seat at the

17:45

table, which they obviously now do,

17:47

that's when the world will finally get

17:49

to see the reality of the price. And

17:51

that was 12 years ago. In 2026, all of

17:54

this is sort of clicking into place. So

17:57

then the question is, well, what is

17:59

China actually doing? What are they

18:01

building? And what they're building is

18:04

their own version of a casino where they

18:07

get to say the house can't cheat. That

18:10

is why they're shutting down retail

18:13

paper gold trading. That is why the

18:16

ICBC, Construction Bank, and the rest of

18:18

them, that is why they all take effect

18:20

on the same day on July 24th. This is

18:22

not a coincidence because in that same

18:24

time window, China's also turning on the

18:28

other half of their plan, their brand

18:30

new gold settlement system run out of

18:33

Hong Kong and working together with the

18:36

Shanghai Gold Exchange. Here's how it's

18:38

going to work. Shanghai is the vault and

18:41

the price. It's an exchange built on

18:44

physical delivery. So when metal trades

18:47

over there, right, real metal actually

18:50

will have to move, which means the price

18:53

will have to show real supply and

18:55

demand, not a mountain of paper claims

18:57

that people are using to bet against on

18:59

what the price of gold will be tomorrow.

19:01

Right? That's real price discovery that

19:04

we talked about. But because of China's

19:07

capital controls, the foreign nations

19:09

can't easily get in. That's where Hong

19:11

Kong comes in. Hong Kong is going to be

19:13

their front door where Shanghai sets the

19:16

price based on real discovery and Hong

19:18

Kong lets the world trade on it. So you

19:21

put them together and what you now have

19:23

is a parallel financial system that's

19:26

going to be the alternative to the

19:28

system in London and New York that's

19:30

going to be sitting outside the dollar.

19:32

Now, how do we know how big of a deal

19:35

this is going to be? What we know is

19:37

that Hong Kong is growing its physical

19:39

vault capacity from around 200 tons to

19:42

over 2,000 tons. They're doing a 10x

19:45

increase. Obviously, you would not need

19:48

a vault that big for a paper casino. But

19:52

if you want to settle in real gold,

19:55

obviously you'd want as big of a vault

19:57

as you can build. And the reason why

19:59

China wants to do all this is because

20:01

they understand that if you control the

20:03

price of the most trusted money on Earth

20:06

and you settle it in your currency, the

20:08

yuan, then you've given your currency

20:11

what's called an anchor. Not an official

20:14

gold standard, but something that ties

20:16

to it, something that manages people's

20:19

expectation of stability. They know the

20:22

world doesn't fully trust the yuan on

20:24

its own yet cuz it's controlled by the

20:26

Chinese government. It's not freely

20:28

traded, but the world trusts gold. So if

20:32

every major commodity deal can be priced

20:34

in yuan and settled against real gold

20:37

sitting in the Shanghai vault or

20:39

somewhere close to their trading nation

20:42

partners, then the countries that were

20:44

nervous about holding the yuan will have

20:46

a reason to hold it cuz behind it sits

20:49

that anchor, the thing that nobody can

20:50

print that they can then use to fund the

20:53

forever war model. Right? That is how

20:56

China challenges the dollar without

20:58

actually going to war with the US. That

21:00

is China's move. Which leaves the

21:03

obvious question, right? What is the US

21:05

going to do about it? The theory says

21:07

that the US will try to recreate a

21:10

similar idea with goldbacked Treasury

21:13

bonds. Now, here's a fact that sounds

21:16

made up, but it's actually completely

21:17

real. The US government owns something

21:20

like 8,000 tons of gold, allegedly. We

21:23

don't know if this is what's called

21:24

unencumbered gold or if it's still

21:26

there, but that's what the official

21:28

numbers say. Could be a lot less, could

21:29

be a lot more, but on the government's

21:31

books, that gold is not valued at the

21:35

market price. It is valued at a price

21:37

set by law back in 1973 and was never

21:41

updated since. That price is $42 per

21:44

ounce. Gold is obviously trading around

21:46

$4,000 per ounce. So officially on

21:49

paper, the United States values all of

21:52

its gold at about 11 billion. In

21:55

reality, at today's prices, that gold

21:57

would be worth closer to a trillion.

22:00

It's a trillion dollar gap. It's

22:02

basically hidden by an accounting rule

22:03

from the Nixon era. So how the US could

22:08

fight this is with just the stroke of a

22:10

pen. the US could just revalue that gold

22:13

and update the official price from $42

22:16

to something closer to the market price.

22:19

Now, the moment the US does that, more

22:22

than a trillion dollar in value would

22:24

appear on the Treasury's books. That's

22:27

money the government could use without

22:29

creating or issuing a a new bond. In

22:32

fact, the Federal Reserve has actually

22:34

published research on this idea. The

22:37

Treasury secretaries talked about

22:39

monetizing the asset side of America's

22:42

balance sheet.

22:43

>> Within the next 12 months, we are going

22:45

to uh monetize the asset side of the US

22:50

balance sheet for the American people.

22:52

We are going to uh put the assets to

22:56

work. There's also a proposal floating

22:59

around from an economist named Judy

23:01

Shelton for a 50-year Treasury bond that

23:04

you could redeem in either dollars or

23:07

physical gold. Now, what that would do

23:09

is it would make the US Treasury bond

23:12

partially backed by gold. Again, the

23:15

exact same trick that China is doing

23:17

with the yuan. So, that is the West's

23:20

answer to the east. If China is going to

23:22

anchor the yuan to gold, then the

23:25

counter is, okay, fine, we'll just do

23:27

the same for the dollar, right? And that

23:28

is also why some people out there

23:30

believe, and this is big speculation

23:32

here, but that this re-evaluation could

23:36

happen sometime in July, maybe July 4th,

23:39

right, America's 250th birthday, where

23:42

the US revalues its gold and launches

23:45

that goldbacked bond as kind of a

23:48

monetary declaration of independence.

23:50

Think if on July 4th, 2026,

23:54

which is going to be the uh 250th

23:57

anniversary of our nation's founding,

24:00

Treasury offered for the first time

24:02

since 1971

24:05

when President Nixon closed the gold

24:08

window and ended any kind of gold

24:10

convertability for the dollar. You would

24:13

be establishing a link between the US

24:16

dollar and gold.

24:18

Now, do I think that it's going to

24:20

happen on that exact day or happen at

24:22

all? I don't know. I have no idea. But

24:25

what I do know is that the Fed is

24:28

looking into this. The Treasury

24:30

Secretary has talked about this. The

24:33

gold bond proposal is a real idea. And

24:37

even if the revaluation is nonsense, if

24:40

it doesn't happen with the repricing of

24:42

gold, it might still happen anyway. But

24:45

not on the gold side, but on the

24:47

devaluation of the dollar side, right?

24:51

Gold does not have to go up for this to

24:53

happen. The dollar just has to go down a

24:56

lot, and that would be the same thing.

24:59

Luckily, we have a Fed chairman who's

25:02

going to show us that inflation is not

25:04

as bad as we think. Having said that

25:06

though, as a disclosure, I personally do

25:09

not hold any gold at all. I'm waiting

25:11

for a safer entry price. And when that

25:13

happens, I'll let you know in the

25:14

premium member section where you'll also

25:16

get access to my main videos earlier.

25:18

And if that is valuable, the link is

25:19

down below. It allows me to make more

25:20

videos like this one and take on fewer

25:22

sponsors. Thank you so much for watching

25:24

this video. I hope you have a wonderful

25:25

rest of your day. Smash the like button.

25:26

Subscribe if you haven't already. I'd

25:28

love to see you back here next time.

25:29

I'll see you soon. Bye-bye. Sh.

Interactive Summary

The video discusses China's recent move to restrict retail paper gold trading, analyzing this as part of a larger, systemic shift in the global financial landscape. The narrator explores the theory that China, alongside other central banks, is moving away from the US dollar-dominated paper market to establish a new gold-settlement system in Shanghai and Hong Kong. This strategy aims to create 'real price discovery' for gold and potentially anchor the yuan, challenging the US dollar's status as the global reserve currency. Additionally, the video touches on the possibility of the United States responding by revaluing its own gold reserves or introducing gold-backed treasury bonds.

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