China Just Shut Down Gold Trading
604 segments
So, the battle for what is money and who
controls it just got really interesting.
At the start of the year, some investors
apparently made a bet that gold could be
worth as much as $20,000 per ounce by
the end of the year. Now, today, gold is
worth closer to $4,000. But what's
interesting is that on June 24th, one of
China's biggest banks, the Industrial
Commercial Bank of China or the ICBC,
announced that they were shutting down
their paper gold trading for their
retail investors. What does that mean?
That means on July 24th, if you're a
Chinese citizen who wants to trade gold
through their bank, your access will get
switched off. Now, the ICBC is not the
only bank doing this. It was also their
postal savings bank of China that did it
first, then Pingan Bank, then China
Guangfa Bank announced it in June. So
some of their biggest financial
institutions one after another are now
pulling the plug on retail trading.
Right? The question is why is China
doing this? The official story that
they're telling us is that they are
protecting citizens from the volatility,
right? The extreme up and down movements
of gold. They're doing this because back
in January 29th, spot gold hit an
all-time high over $55,000 per ounce,
but then it crashed. As I'm making this
video, gold is trading at around $4,000
per ounce. That's a drop of about 28%
from the peak. So, of course, to protect
people, China's banks have increased
what's called the margin requirement to
140%. Which is a record high for the
industry. A margin requirement, by the
way, is the amount of collateral someone
needs to borrow money. And by increasing
that percentage, like they just did, it
means you need to have a lot more money
to borrow less money. China is now
demanding more collateral than what the
investment is even worth. Okay, so the
official reason is gold is volatile,
retail traders are getting hurt, and big
government has to step in to protect
them. Now, the unofficial story though
is probably what's actually happening,
which is the battle for real money and
what that money should be worth. Right?
Think about what China is really
shutting down. They are getting rid of
margin trading. They're getting rid of
the leveraged deferred contracts, the
paper gold. Basically, the easiest way
to understand it is they are getting rid
of the speculation, the gambling. But
physical gold, that's all good. They
could still buy and sell that. They're
not stopping people from owning gold.
They are stopping people from trading
the paper claims against gold. Okay. So,
why is China doing that? The theory says
it's because the real price of gold
should be way higher than it actually
is. But the reason that it's not is
because it's being manipulated and
suppressed by the paper markets. and it
has been for decades. So, in order to
have what's called real price discovery,
in other words, in order to figure out
what something is really worth, you need
to first shut down people's ability to
gamble on the price of it. Now, if this
were true, we'd probably see China as a
nation start to buy a lot more gold than
usual. And that's exactly what they've
been doing. In May of this year, they
bought 163 tons of gold, the most since
March 2024. And that's not just true of
China. That is true of all central banks
around the world, which have been buying
way more gold. In fact, as much as 15
times more than they've been telling us.
It makes sense, right? Which is also why
the Chinese government is launching a
brand new gold clearing and settlement
system. It's a system that's designed to
make China, not London or New York, but
China as the place where the price of
gold actually gets set. Now, once you
put all of this together, central banks
and nations secretly buying gold and
taking steps to get rid of the paper
markets and building the settlement hub
there, it all starts to make a lot more
sense. So today, let's speculate on what
could be really happening and why
China's doing this right now and what it
all means for our investments and the
dollar. So with that said, let's get
into it. Hi, my name is Andre Jick. Hope
you're doing well. Come for the finance
and stay for the battle of money and
gold. So to understand why China
shutting down their paper gold market is
such a big deal, you have to first
understand what paper gold is and how it
works. And the easiest way I can explain
it is like this. Let's say I've got this
sick Pokemon card called the ancient
Miu, right? It's a physical card that is
sitting in my safe. It's real. I can
hold it. There's only one of it. Now
imagine then I write up a little paper
certificate that says this entitles you
to one of these muse. And then I sell it
to you, right? You're happy because
you've got a claim on my card, but maybe
you don't actually want to custody the
card because someone might steal it and
you're afraid. So, you just hold the
certificate. It's easier. It also trades
like the real thing. But you never come
to collect it from me. So, here's the
problem. Once I realize you're never
actually going to show up and ask for
your card, what stops me from writing a
second certificate and then selling it
to someone else and then a third and a
fourth and a tenth. Right now there's 10
people who think they own this Mew, but
there's still only one card. I've sold
10 claims on it, though. On paper, the
supply will show that there's 10 MUS. In
reality, nothing's changed, right?
There's still one card in existence. So,
what's it really worth? Well, if the
market is pricing my card based on the
evidence it has, which is all that paper
floating around, the price should be
onetenth of what it should be worth.
Because as far as the market can tell,
these muses are everywhere, right? Why
would the price go up when there's so
much of them available? That's paper
supply. Now, the second everybody walks
in at the same time and says, "You know
what, Andre? Actually, I want my card
now." The whole system would fall apart
because nine out of 10 people would find
out that their paper certificate is
worth nothing. That is the overly
simplified version of paper gold. Now,
in the big western markets like London
and Comx in New York, most gold that
trades every day is never physically
delivered. They're what are called
contracts. They are claims. People buy
and sell these pieces of paper that
represent claims on the gold. And the
majority of people never intend to take
a single physical bar, right? Same as
the MU example. And just like my card
scheme, that means they can also write
way more claims than there are actual
pieces of metal sitting in their vaults.
Now, estimates for how much paper gold
there is varies cuz no one knows how
much gold there really is in the world
or how much paper there is. But the
point is there is dramatically more
paper than there is physical real gold.
What that means then is that the price
of gold today is probably lower than
where it should be. That's how you
suppress the price of an asset. Now,
hold on. Where's my proof? Like, I can't
just say we think there's more paper
gold there. Trust me, bros. If what I'm
saying is true, how would we know?
There's a couple ways that we might know
that that could be true. First, there
would be a disconnect between the price
of the physical thing and the paper
thing. Think about it like this. If the
world was 100% honest and this Miu only
had one paper claim on it worth $100,
the card and the claim would trade
perfectly one to one because the world
knows all the details. But the moment it
becomes a casino where no one knows how
many muse there are and how many paper
claims there are, then what you'd see is
a natural price divergence of these
assets. People might want to pay more
for the physical thing than the paper
thing. They'd be like, I don't know if I
trust this system, so I'll happily pay a
little premium for the real thing. Now,
the tighter the spread between the real
and not real, the more honest the market
thinks the game is, the bigger the
spread between the two, the more the
market thinks something funny might be
going on. Makes sense, right? That's one
way that we might know. Okay, then. So
then the question is, have we ever had
price divergences between the real and
the paper thing? And it turns out that
we have. In the silver markets, for
example, the peak hit in January. It was
temporary, but it was something like a
40% price differences between the
physical and the paper markets. Now, the
spread today is much smaller, but it's
still not nothing. There is still a
premium for physical silver. Now the
spread in gold is much much smaller
which means in theory maybe all is fair.
But is it really? China wants to know
how real is this casino. Let's go and
find out what the price should really be
by getting rid of paper speculation.
This is one way to tell that something
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And now, let's get back to it. Okay, so
the second way to tell the casino might
not be telling us the truth is how
investors start to behave. Cuz think
about it. If you knew the paper was
maybe fake and you knew the real price
should be higher, what would you
actually do? You'd do two things. You'd
sell the paper and you'd buy the
physical thing, right? You'd get out of
the certificate market and you'd start
buying a lot more of the real thing. So
the question is, is anybody actually
doing that? And the answer is yes, they
are. In fact, the people doing this are
the most sophisticated money markets on
the whole planet. It's the people that
print the paper currencies. It's the
central banks. They have been buying
physical gold at the fastest pace in
recorded history. In the first quarter
of this year alone, central banks bought
a net 244 tons of gold. That is the
strongest first quarter ever recorded.
And it's also not a onetime thing.
They've now bought over 200 tons in 10
of the last 11 quarters. And the crazy
part is that a big chunk of that buying
was never officially reported, which is
kind of interesting. According to the
World Gold Council, they say their
number includes an estimate of
undisclosed purchases, which means gold
these banks are buying but not telling
anyone about it. Now, this shadow
accumulation has allegedly been
happening since 2022. the official
numbers that banks are reporting, that's
just the minimum, right? The real number
is probably way bigger, maybe as much as
10 times bigger, especially for China.
Now, that behavior, that's the first
half of it. They'd buy more of the real
thing. But it's also what they're
selling to buy it. What are they
selling? That would be US treasuries,
the bond market. Because for 50 years,
the strategy for all central banks was
doing the opposite of this. Central
banks took your extra dollars and they
parked them in US treasuries. They
basically lent the money back to America
to earn a little bit of interest. That
was the safe thing to do and everybody
did it. Any country that didn't do it in
fact and tried to route around the
dollar got a lot more freedom in their
country. Right? But now we're seeing a
reversal of that strategy. Foreign
central banks have essentially quit
growing their pile of treasuries over a
decade ago. And lately, some of the
biggest holders have actually been
selling US treasuries. China has dumped
hundreds of billions of dollars of US
debt and rotate it into gold. Now,
they're not dumping all of it at once.
That would not be smart because they
want to extract as many dollars as they
can. If they sold all of it at once,
they'd crash the value of their own bond
holdings. So they have to do it slowly
and strategically. That's true for all
the other countries holding on Treasury
bonds as well. But what they're selling
basically is the paper promise of
supposedly the most powerful government
on Earth. And they're doing that to buy
gold that pays them zero interest. And
on paper that sounds kind of crazy cuz
why would anyone trade an asset that
pays you for an asset that doesn't? You
would only do that if you no longer
trusted the promise of that paper. What
was the promise? The promise was give us
your paper, park your money into our
assets, we'll be honest, we'll protect
you, we'll trade with you, and your life
will be awesome. Right? But after the
Iran conflict exposed the US and after
decades and decades of the forever war
model, which was funded by money that
could be printed to infinity, giving the
US unchecked power, the world sort of
had enough. The world does not want
dollars. It wants real money. They want
what economists call multipolarity,
where it's not just one nation that
rules the world, but many nations that
contribute. Now, if this theory was
true, how would we know that it might be
true? What would be the evidence? Well,
first, we'd see those US treasuries
being sold off over a long period of
time. And we have been seeing that. We
would also be seeing investors selling
paper gold. And we have been seeing that
money has flowed out of US gold ETFs.
We'd also see gold as an asset surpass
treasuries as the reserve asset for
central banks. We are seeing that gold
now represents a bigger share than US
treasuries. Gold demand in China also
hit a record 207 tons which breaks a
record that stood for over a decade. So
combine all this together. How do we
know the casino might not be telling us
the truth? We might see things like the
prices diverging between paper and the
physical markets. We'd see the world
selling the paper claims. And we'd see
the US export gold. And we are. Gold is
going east. And that's because gold is
the number one export out of the US for
several months in a row now. Central
banks worldwide are dumping the dollar's
paper and hoarding the real thing and
hiding how much. Right? The question is,
is that the evidence of an honest
market? This theory says no, it isn't.
This is not what a healthy, honest
market looks like. All right, but
there's another piece of evidence that
shows us this theory could be true. And
it's because China told us way back in
2014. Remember when the head of the
Shanghai Gold Exchange stood up and gave
a speech at what's called the LBMA, the
London Bullion Market Association, which
by the way is the Western Paper Gold
Pricing System. So while he was there,
he looked at the gold establishment and
he said, "Shanghai gold will change the
current situation of consumption in the
east priced in the west." And then he
said, "When China has the right to speak
in the international gold market, gold's
price will be revealed." So basically
he's saying once China has a seat at the
table, which they obviously now do,
that's when the world will finally get
to see the reality of the price. And
that was 12 years ago. In 2026, all of
this is sort of clicking into place. So
then the question is, well, what is
China actually doing? What are they
building? And what they're building is
their own version of a casino where they
get to say the house can't cheat. That
is why they're shutting down retail
paper gold trading. That is why the
ICBC, Construction Bank, and the rest of
them, that is why they all take effect
on the same day on July 24th. This is
not a coincidence because in that same
time window, China's also turning on the
other half of their plan, their brand
new gold settlement system run out of
Hong Kong and working together with the
Shanghai Gold Exchange. Here's how it's
going to work. Shanghai is the vault and
the price. It's an exchange built on
physical delivery. So when metal trades
over there, right, real metal actually
will have to move, which means the price
will have to show real supply and
demand, not a mountain of paper claims
that people are using to bet against on
what the price of gold will be tomorrow.
Right? That's real price discovery that
we talked about. But because of China's
capital controls, the foreign nations
can't easily get in. That's where Hong
Kong comes in. Hong Kong is going to be
their front door where Shanghai sets the
price based on real discovery and Hong
Kong lets the world trade on it. So you
put them together and what you now have
is a parallel financial system that's
going to be the alternative to the
system in London and New York that's
going to be sitting outside the dollar.
Now, how do we know how big of a deal
this is going to be? What we know is
that Hong Kong is growing its physical
vault capacity from around 200 tons to
over 2,000 tons. They're doing a 10x
increase. Obviously, you would not need
a vault that big for a paper casino. But
if you want to settle in real gold,
obviously you'd want as big of a vault
as you can build. And the reason why
China wants to do all this is because
they understand that if you control the
price of the most trusted money on Earth
and you settle it in your currency, the
yuan, then you've given your currency
what's called an anchor. Not an official
gold standard, but something that ties
to it, something that manages people's
expectation of stability. They know the
world doesn't fully trust the yuan on
its own yet cuz it's controlled by the
Chinese government. It's not freely
traded, but the world trusts gold. So if
every major commodity deal can be priced
in yuan and settled against real gold
sitting in the Shanghai vault or
somewhere close to their trading nation
partners, then the countries that were
nervous about holding the yuan will have
a reason to hold it cuz behind it sits
that anchor, the thing that nobody can
print that they can then use to fund the
forever war model. Right? That is how
China challenges the dollar without
actually going to war with the US. That
is China's move. Which leaves the
obvious question, right? What is the US
going to do about it? The theory says
that the US will try to recreate a
similar idea with goldbacked Treasury
bonds. Now, here's a fact that sounds
made up, but it's actually completely
real. The US government owns something
like 8,000 tons of gold, allegedly. We
don't know if this is what's called
unencumbered gold or if it's still
there, but that's what the official
numbers say. Could be a lot less, could
be a lot more, but on the government's
books, that gold is not valued at the
market price. It is valued at a price
set by law back in 1973 and was never
updated since. That price is $42 per
ounce. Gold is obviously trading around
$4,000 per ounce. So officially on
paper, the United States values all of
its gold at about 11 billion. In
reality, at today's prices, that gold
would be worth closer to a trillion.
It's a trillion dollar gap. It's
basically hidden by an accounting rule
from the Nixon era. So how the US could
fight this is with just the stroke of a
pen. the US could just revalue that gold
and update the official price from $42
to something closer to the market price.
Now, the moment the US does that, more
than a trillion dollar in value would
appear on the Treasury's books. That's
money the government could use without
creating or issuing a a new bond. In
fact, the Federal Reserve has actually
published research on this idea. The
Treasury secretaries talked about
monetizing the asset side of America's
balance sheet.
>> Within the next 12 months, we are going
to uh monetize the asset side of the US
balance sheet for the American people.
We are going to uh put the assets to
work. There's also a proposal floating
around from an economist named Judy
Shelton for a 50-year Treasury bond that
you could redeem in either dollars or
physical gold. Now, what that would do
is it would make the US Treasury bond
partially backed by gold. Again, the
exact same trick that China is doing
with the yuan. So, that is the West's
answer to the east. If China is going to
anchor the yuan to gold, then the
counter is, okay, fine, we'll just do
the same for the dollar, right? And that
is also why some people out there
believe, and this is big speculation
here, but that this re-evaluation could
happen sometime in July, maybe July 4th,
right, America's 250th birthday, where
the US revalues its gold and launches
that goldbacked bond as kind of a
monetary declaration of independence.
Think if on July 4th, 2026,
which is going to be the uh 250th
anniversary of our nation's founding,
Treasury offered for the first time
since 1971
when President Nixon closed the gold
window and ended any kind of gold
convertability for the dollar. You would
be establishing a link between the US
dollar and gold.
Now, do I think that it's going to
happen on that exact day or happen at
all? I don't know. I have no idea. But
what I do know is that the Fed is
looking into this. The Treasury
Secretary has talked about this. The
gold bond proposal is a real idea. And
even if the revaluation is nonsense, if
it doesn't happen with the repricing of
gold, it might still happen anyway. But
not on the gold side, but on the
devaluation of the dollar side, right?
Gold does not have to go up for this to
happen. The dollar just has to go down a
lot, and that would be the same thing.
Luckily, we have a Fed chairman who's
going to show us that inflation is not
as bad as we think. Having said that
though, as a disclosure, I personally do
not hold any gold at all. I'm waiting
for a safer entry price. And when that
happens, I'll let you know in the
premium member section where you'll also
get access to my main videos earlier.
And if that is valuable, the link is
down below. It allows me to make more
videos like this one and take on fewer
sponsors. Thank you so much for watching
this video. I hope you have a wonderful
rest of your day. Smash the like button.
Subscribe if you haven't already. I'd
love to see you back here next time.
I'll see you soon. Bye-bye. Sh.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video discusses China's recent move to restrict retail paper gold trading, analyzing this as part of a larger, systemic shift in the global financial landscape. The narrator explores the theory that China, alongside other central banks, is moving away from the US dollar-dominated paper market to establish a new gold-settlement system in Shanghai and Hong Kong. This strategy aims to create 'real price discovery' for gold and potentially anchor the yuan, challenging the US dollar's status as the global reserve currency. Additionally, the video touches on the possibility of the United States responding by revaluing its own gold reserves or introducing gold-backed treasury bonds.
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