New 5m crypto markets, price manipulations and researching strategies
332 segments
Okay, so I saw this post here on X. A
fiveinut up and down markets are already
being built. Bots are ready. So if you
look at this post here, it looks like
five minute up and down markets have
been quietly prepared for a while. And
that seems to be very true because if
you go to the gamma API
and uh uh search with the lock BTC up
and down five minute this one here you
can actually see we have data we have a
data for the Bitcoin up and down 5
minute and you can see here we have the
event we have 9,448
events and the very first event
is from December 24. So we have actually
had these events now for a while but I
do not think they they are not tradable.
I think we have it here event.
You can see here how we actually we
actually have comments as well. So we
have comments 17 hours ago and the first
comment yeah was a month ago. So
somebody already saw that they were
preparing some fiveminut markets. Yeah.
So, I've asked I I asked in the Discord
and if you haven't joined already,
please go ahead and join. I'll make sure
to leave a invite link down below in the
description
that uh well, Panda says it's a new
feature because I ask if well is this
just something that we had before that
maybe was trading and then they stopped
it again. But it seems like as from from
what we understand is that it it's a new
thing and they are preparing it and they
might actually open the 5m minute
market.
So yeah, if we didn't have enough deency
in polymark with the 15minut markets,
well now we will have even more with the
5minut market. So that's going to be
interesting to see the opportunities uh
in that market because that's going to
you know run faster and and uh than than
15 minutes and of course it's going to
be a big opportunity for a trading bot
to come in especially in the beginning
to capitalize on that markets and um
just for fun I try to see if we have one
one minute market um but but we don't
have it there's no data for the one
minute market so it doesn't seem like
that's something that they're preparing
right now but but for the fiveminute
market we we do have data And
potentially they'll be opening up that
uh in the near future. So yeah, I mean
if you haven't started on your trading
bot already, I'll highly suggest to do
that now because this is a big
opportunity to capitalize on this
moment. Join the Discords. We have a lot
of alpha in here, a lot of nice talk. I
just opened the discord yesterday and we
already have so we have 62 online and
then we have let's see 211 offline. So
we have you know 270 members in just
less than 24 hours. Another thing that I
saw here is actually two guys talking I
think talking about the same event that
happened. So, let me just paraphrase
here. A poly market trader ran a Wolf of
Wall Street level play overnight, made
233,000 but drained liquidity from
trading bots and it flew completely
under the radar. The setup was brilliant
and extremely simple. A trader known as
A4385
made 233 overnight exploiting 15-minute
poly markets.
Uh, Saturday night liquidity is thin.
Binance spot order books are shallow. So
here he's talking about the specific
Binance spot prices and not on poly
market on XRP up and down. He
aggressively bought up at any price. His
counterparties were trading bots. Poly
market making is relatively
straightforward with low barriers to
entry for solar defs and trading bots
are now very very popular. By the 10th
minute of the market, XRP was down uh
about.3 from the open. Yet he had pushed
up
he has pushed up shares to 70 cents.
So so the implication here is he just
kept buying up up because apparently has
infinite money and uh but the the the
XRP was actually trading down at that
moment. So you you already know at this
point that it's highly highly um you
know skewed and then this triggers a lot
of trading bots to buy the other side
because it sees that there's a you know
discrepancy here and this is a risk that
we have in our trading bots to actually
use this as an example of how to
safeguard and maybe it's going to be
difficult but let let's read more here.
The bot saw an opportunity and waited
and walked straight into the trap
selling him even more up. Yeah. 70
77,000 up accumulated at an average
price of 48.
Now, 2 minutes before settlement, a
wallet on Binance bought 1 million USDT.
Okay. 1 million USDT off XRP spot,
pushing the price 0.5% higher seconds
after the settlement, the 1 million spot
buy was sold back. So basically a man
manipulation here right if this is true.
So he he he b he first of all he
manipulated the the up and down price on
poly market where the price was lower
than the uh you know the resolution
price and then he pushed the the up
price basically up
and then he had or someone else had a
wallet on Binance that bought the spot
prices with a lot of cash. So he had,
you know, he had a million dollars. Um,
yeah. So with Binance VIP level, uh, VIP
4 level 0.06, quite easy to obtain and
0.25% slippage on both sides. The total
cost was 6,200.
So he paid basically to for this trade
here he paid around $6,000 and then he
did it multiple times
meaning that when it settled so he
pushed the price up just before
settlement of of of uh poly market right
and then he his up was um you know one
and he made a profit that way and it was
and that profit was big enough to offset
the cost he had to manipulate the
market. We have the uh actual one here.
Total bits actual one.
But it's I mean it's it's also
I'm not too worried about this, you
know, just think about this because like
okay, you would have to have a million
dollar in capital and just that imposes
a high risk to win uh $77,000
uh dollars here on a million. I mean, if
you can do it at 15 minutes, that's a
pretty decent trade. Um but if this is
true it's it's it's quite an elaborate
scheme to to manipulate price using the
um
the Binance order book. Another guy he
basically talked about the same here. So
these 15-minute markers on poly market
are broken. He risked the outcome by
moving the price seconds before the
close
and then he made 233,000 risk-free in 24
hours. So he did it on all 50-minute
markets.
Longs XRP one minute before expiry.
Drops the price
to ensure the win. Dumps in his position
immediately after resolution. He's
pulled this off at least 20 markets. If
this is his only account, which I doubt,
honestly, I was mind-blowing watching
this live. I even saw him cop I even saw
him use copy traders as exit liquidity
when they tried to follow. Do not c
trade him. Maybe next time he won't just
been manipulating market and will be
farming you. So yeah, I mean two two
independent people here talking about
basically the same uh guy.
I haven't really looked into it if this
is true or not. I mean you could
probably very well uh investigate this
and look at you know the 15-minute
market and then also look at do we have
these candles on every 15 minute. you
would have to be able to exploit and
aggressively manipulate the Binance uh
candles here every 15 minutes for 24
hours to do this, right? And if it
doesn't work, you know, you also have a
lot um
outstanding risk here, right? So, but
it's a good it's a it's a good example
of how you know these trading bots like
you and I we we create our own trading
bot maybe a market making you know
strategy or whatever you know it can
also be manipulated by other bad actors
here in the space and this is an example
of of the imposed risk of of doing this
definitely not risk-free and something
we need to take into consideration and
here's another one that's a little bit
different right so this relates to Elon
Musk. Um, so from this guy here, K
Cayoro. So from $363
to $100,000 in 30 days. The Elon Musk
prediction market exploit.
Nobody's talking about this trader found
the glitch. Buy Elon Musk trade in the
next hour at 1 2 3 cent before the
market realizes his position frequency.
Okay, so that's the key word here,
frequency.
When Elon Musk pays spy spikes above 0.8
to 1.2 tweets an hour and prices are
still dead load more exit when the
market catches up. So basically this is
a you know it's a it's it's a it's a
it's a decent idea and pretty simple
right you measure the frequency of his
tweets and then you can pretty you know
reliably predict if this market will
resolute to yes or no based on those you
know metrics. So I think this is a good
example of how you can create an a
strategy, a trading bot strategy to use
outside data feeds to um you know create
some signals. In this case it's a
frequency signal and then you can
compute you know should we buy or or not
should is it up or down based on on
that. So he can take the the yes and no
side depending on the frequency if it
aligns with the time is left uh on on on
that particular market.
So that's a good idea. I think it's a
it's a it's um it's pretty it's
something that a lot of people can catch
on to very easy. It's easy to make a
butt that does this and pretty reliably.
So I think the the edge here is probably
already gone as we speak about it right
now. But I mean it could be fun trying
it out to do a strategy about that. And
here's another one that talks about
arbitrage.
And I think this is about a famous uh
trader that people have been talking
about. Uh let me see. So watch football
with friends, celebrate the goal, and
found out someone made 39,000 on that
gold 30 seconds before we even saw it.
So again, this is an example of having
access to data before people, you know,
trading on the market actually, you
know, see it. So maybe he has a
different feed of data and then trades
on that. So let's see. So Swiss Tony,
I heard that name many times. I think
this is a pretty famous name in the poly
market game right now. You cheer for the
team. He earns on your emotions. His P&L
looks like a database error. Yeah. A lot
of a lot of profit. Third thought
insider blah blah blah. Fell blah blah
blah. You are the past watching football
and TV or stream thinking it is live. In
reality, the signals go through
satellites, encoder, servers. You delay
30 seconds. So, yeah, that's true.
You're watching in TV. You are not
watching it live. You're watching it
with a delay of 30 seconds. Here is the
present. But receives data directly from
stadium providers through API. I mean,
yeah, if you can have I don't even know
about this. I'm not really into that uh
at this moment. But if you have access
to direct API from these stadium
providers, you know, um sure you have an
edge, right? So if you can get that data
before everybody else, then you have a a
big big edge and you can you can use
that to trade with
the moment of theft player scores but
knows 200 milliseconds.
Yeah, he he knows it in 200
milliseconds. You see it in 30 seconds
except for the people that's that that
are at the stadium. Like how big are
these stadiums? It's like, you know,
thousands of people and probably maybe
they have their phone up, right, and and
playing the markets already. I I I don't
know, but I'm just guessing here. So, so
they are actually the one that have a a
even uh better
um edge, right? You are at the stadium.
You see it unfolding live. I'm sure of
people using that. So, I don't even know
if this is viable.
For those 30 seconds, Poly Market thinks
the score is zero. of people hold
position liquidity exits but buys
everything takes money from those who
live in signal delay when the gold shows
on TV is already selling your own bed
three times more expensive you are not
trading against him you're simply his
food supply yeah good example of how you
can create a bots if you have uh you
know more recent data than everybody
else you have an edge and this is like
that's that's basically everything right
yeah so I think that's it for now I I uh
don't think I have more post interesting
to show uh right now. So yeah, if you
haven't uh joined already, please do so.
We have the Discord here open and um we
have a lot of people joining. You can
see every like every almost every minute
we have people joining the server and we
have a good chat going on. So um you can
use the link down below and uh see you
on the next video. Have a good one. Bye.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video discusses several intriguing developments and exploits in prediction markets. It highlights the quiet preparation for 5-minute up and down markets on Polymarket, which are expected to create new opportunities for trading bots. The speaker then details a "Wolf of Wall Street" level market manipulation where a trader made $233,000 by exploiting 15-minute Polymarkets and Binance's spot order book. Additionally, two other trading strategies are presented: one involving predicting Elon Musk's market movements based on his tweet frequency, and another focusing on sports arbitrage by leveraging real-time stadium data to trade on goals before they appear on TV broadcasts. The video emphasizes the importance of data advantage and the risks of market manipulation for automated trading systems.
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