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New 5m crypto markets, price manipulations and researching strategies

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New 5m crypto markets, price manipulations and researching strategies

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332 segments

0:00

Okay, so I saw this post here on X. A

0:04

fiveinut up and down markets are already

0:07

being built. Bots are ready. So if you

0:10

look at this post here, it looks like

0:12

five minute up and down markets have

0:13

been quietly prepared for a while. And

0:16

that seems to be very true because if

0:19

you go to the gamma API

0:23

and uh uh search with the lock BTC up

0:26

and down five minute this one here you

0:30

can actually see we have data we have a

0:32

data for the Bitcoin up and down 5

0:34

minute and you can see here we have the

0:38

event we have 9,448

0:41

events and the very first event

0:45

is from December 24. So we have actually

0:49

had these events now for a while but I

0:52

do not think they they are not tradable.

0:54

I think we have it here event.

1:00

You can see here how we actually we

1:03

actually have comments as well. So we

1:05

have comments 17 hours ago and the first

1:07

comment yeah was a month ago. So

1:09

somebody already saw that they were

1:11

preparing some fiveminut markets. Yeah.

1:14

So, I've asked I I asked in the Discord

1:16

and if you haven't joined already,

1:18

please go ahead and join. I'll make sure

1:19

to leave a invite link down below in the

1:22

description

1:24

that uh well, Panda says it's a new

1:27

feature because I ask if well is this

1:29

just something that we had before that

1:32

maybe was trading and then they stopped

1:33

it again. But it seems like as from from

1:36

what we understand is that it it's a new

1:38

thing and they are preparing it and they

1:40

might actually open the 5m minute

1:41

market.

1:43

So yeah, if we didn't have enough deency

1:47

in polymark with the 15minut markets,

1:50

well now we will have even more with the

1:51

5minut market. So that's going to be

1:53

interesting to see the opportunities uh

1:56

in that market because that's going to

1:58

you know run faster and and uh than than

2:01

15 minutes and of course it's going to

2:03

be a big opportunity for a trading bot

2:05

to come in especially in the beginning

2:07

to capitalize on that markets and um

2:10

just for fun I try to see if we have one

2:13

one minute market um but but we don't

2:15

have it there's no data for the one

2:17

minute market so it doesn't seem like

2:18

that's something that they're preparing

2:19

right now but but for the fiveminute

2:20

market we we do have data And

2:23

potentially they'll be opening up that

2:25

uh in the near future. So yeah, I mean

2:28

if you haven't started on your trading

2:29

bot already, I'll highly suggest to do

2:31

that now because this is a big

2:34

opportunity to capitalize on this

2:38

moment. Join the Discords. We have a lot

2:40

of alpha in here, a lot of nice talk. I

2:42

just opened the discord yesterday and we

2:45

already have so we have 62 online and

2:48

then we have let's see 211 offline. So

2:52

we have you know 270 members in just

2:57

less than 24 hours. Another thing that I

3:01

saw here is actually two guys talking I

3:05

think talking about the same event that

3:09

happened. So, let me just paraphrase

3:11

here. A poly market trader ran a Wolf of

3:14

Wall Street level play overnight, made

3:16

233,000 but drained liquidity from

3:19

trading bots and it flew completely

3:22

under the radar. The setup was brilliant

3:24

and extremely simple. A trader known as

3:27

A4385

3:29

made 233 overnight exploiting 15-minute

3:32

poly markets.

3:34

Uh, Saturday night liquidity is thin.

3:38

Binance spot order books are shallow. So

3:40

here he's talking about the specific

3:42

Binance spot prices and not on poly

3:45

market on XRP up and down. He

3:49

aggressively bought up at any price. His

3:52

counterparties were trading bots. Poly

3:54

market making is relatively

3:56

straightforward with low barriers to

3:58

entry for solar defs and trading bots

4:00

are now very very popular. By the 10th

4:03

minute of the market, XRP was down uh

4:08

about.3 from the open. Yet he had pushed

4:11

up

4:13

he has pushed up shares to 70 cents.

4:17

So so the implication here is he just

4:20

kept buying up up because apparently has

4:23

infinite money and uh but the the the

4:26

XRP was actually trading down at that

4:29

moment. So you you already know at this

4:32

point that it's highly highly um you

4:35

know skewed and then this triggers a lot

4:38

of trading bots to buy the other side

4:40

because it sees that there's a you know

4:42

discrepancy here and this is a risk that

4:45

we have in our trading bots to actually

4:48

use this as an example of how to

4:50

safeguard and maybe it's going to be

4:51

difficult but let let's read more here.

4:53

The bot saw an opportunity and waited

4:55

and walked straight into the trap

4:57

selling him even more up. Yeah. 70

5:01

77,000 up accumulated at an average

5:04

price of 48.

5:07

Now, 2 minutes before settlement, a

5:10

wallet on Binance bought 1 million USDT.

5:13

Okay. 1 million USDT off XRP spot,

5:17

pushing the price 0.5% higher seconds

5:22

after the settlement, the 1 million spot

5:24

buy was sold back. So basically a man

5:28

manipulation here right if this is true.

5:30

So he he he b he first of all he

5:33

manipulated the the up and down price on

5:35

poly market where the price was lower

5:40

than the uh you know the resolution

5:43

price and then he pushed the the up

5:46

price basically up

5:49

and then he had or someone else had a

5:51

wallet on Binance that bought the spot

5:54

prices with a lot of cash. So he had,

5:56

you know, he had a million dollars. Um,

6:02

yeah. So with Binance VIP level, uh, VIP

6:06

4 level 0.06, quite easy to obtain and

6:10

0.25% slippage on both sides. The total

6:14

cost was 6,200.

6:17

So he paid basically to for this trade

6:19

here he paid around $6,000 and then he

6:22

did it multiple times

6:26

meaning that when it settled so he

6:28

pushed the price up just before

6:29

settlement of of of uh poly market right

6:32

and then he his up was um you know one

6:38

and he made a profit that way and it was

6:40

and that profit was big enough to offset

6:43

the cost he had to manipulate the

6:44

market. We have the uh actual one here.

6:47

Total bits actual one.

6:51

But it's I mean it's it's also

6:54

I'm not too worried about this, you

6:56

know, just think about this because like

6:58

okay, you would have to have a million

6:59

dollar in capital and just that imposes

7:01

a high risk to win uh $77,000

7:07

uh dollars here on a million. I mean, if

7:10

you can do it at 15 minutes, that's a

7:11

pretty decent trade. Um but if this is

7:15

true it's it's it's quite an elaborate

7:17

scheme to to manipulate price using the

7:20

um

7:22

the Binance order book. Another guy he

7:23

basically talked about the same here. So

7:26

these 15-minute markers on poly market

7:28

are broken. He risked the outcome by

7:30

moving the price seconds before the

7:31

close

7:33

and then he made 233,000 risk-free in 24

7:36

hours. So he did it on all 50-minute

7:38

markets.

7:41

Longs XRP one minute before expiry.

7:44

Drops the price

7:46

to ensure the win. Dumps in his position

7:50

immediately after resolution. He's

7:52

pulled this off at least 20 markets. If

7:54

this is his only account, which I doubt,

7:57

honestly, I was mind-blowing watching

7:58

this live. I even saw him cop I even saw

8:01

him use copy traders as exit liquidity

8:03

when they tried to follow. Do not c

8:05

trade him. Maybe next time he won't just

8:07

been manipulating market and will be

8:09

farming you. So yeah, I mean two two

8:12

independent people here talking about

8:14

basically the same uh guy.

8:18

I haven't really looked into it if this

8:19

is true or not. I mean you could

8:21

probably very well uh investigate this

8:24

and look at you know the 15-minute

8:26

market and then also look at do we have

8:28

these candles on every 15 minute. you

8:31

would have to be able to exploit and

8:33

aggressively manipulate the Binance uh

8:36

candles here every 15 minutes for 24

8:39

hours to do this, right? And if it

8:42

doesn't work, you know, you also have a

8:44

lot um

8:46

outstanding risk here, right? So, but

8:48

it's a good it's a it's a good example

8:50

of how you know these trading bots like

8:53

you and I we we create our own trading

8:55

bot maybe a market making you know

8:57

strategy or whatever you know it can

8:59

also be manipulated by other bad actors

9:02

here in the space and this is an example

9:04

of of the imposed risk of of doing this

9:07

definitely not risk-free and something

9:09

we need to take into consideration and

9:12

here's another one that's a little bit

9:15

different right so this relates to Elon

9:17

Musk. Um, so from this guy here, K

9:20

Cayoro. So from $363

9:24

to $100,000 in 30 days. The Elon Musk

9:27

prediction market exploit.

9:29

Nobody's talking about this trader found

9:32

the glitch. Buy Elon Musk trade in the

9:35

next hour at 1 2 3 cent before the

9:38

market realizes his position frequency.

9:42

Okay, so that's the key word here,

9:44

frequency.

9:46

When Elon Musk pays spy spikes above 0.8

9:51

to 1.2 tweets an hour and prices are

9:53

still dead load more exit when the

9:56

market catches up. So basically this is

9:59

a you know it's a it's it's a it's a

10:02

it's a decent idea and pretty simple

10:04

right you measure the frequency of his

10:08

tweets and then you can pretty you know

10:10

reliably predict if this market will

10:14

resolute to yes or no based on those you

10:17

know metrics. So I think this is a good

10:20

example of how you can create an a

10:24

strategy, a trading bot strategy to use

10:28

outside data feeds to um you know create

10:33

some signals. In this case it's a

10:36

frequency signal and then you can

10:38

compute you know should we buy or or not

10:41

should is it up or down based on on

10:43

that. So he can take the the yes and no

10:45

side depending on the frequency if it

10:47

aligns with the time is left uh on on on

10:50

that particular market.

10:53

So that's a good idea. I think it's a

10:55

it's a it's um it's pretty it's

10:58

something that a lot of people can catch

11:00

on to very easy. It's easy to make a

11:01

butt that does this and pretty reliably.

11:03

So I think the the edge here is probably

11:06

already gone as we speak about it right

11:08

now. But I mean it could be fun trying

11:09

it out to do a strategy about that. And

11:12

here's another one that talks about

11:14

arbitrage.

11:16

And I think this is about a famous uh

11:19

trader that people have been talking

11:21

about. Uh let me see. So watch football

11:24

with friends, celebrate the goal, and

11:25

found out someone made 39,000 on that

11:27

gold 30 seconds before we even saw it.

11:31

So again, this is an example of having

11:33

access to data before people, you know,

11:36

trading on the market actually, you

11:38

know, see it. So maybe he has a

11:39

different feed of data and then trades

11:41

on that. So let's see. So Swiss Tony,

11:44

I heard that name many times. I think

11:46

this is a pretty famous name in the poly

11:48

market game right now. You cheer for the

11:52

team. He earns on your emotions. His P&L

11:55

looks like a database error. Yeah. A lot

11:57

of a lot of profit. Third thought

12:00

insider blah blah blah. Fell blah blah

12:02

blah. You are the past watching football

12:04

and TV or stream thinking it is live. In

12:07

reality, the signals go through

12:08

satellites, encoder, servers. You delay

12:10

30 seconds. So, yeah, that's true.

12:11

You're watching in TV. You are not

12:13

watching it live. You're watching it

12:15

with a delay of 30 seconds. Here is the

12:18

present. But receives data directly from

12:20

stadium providers through API. I mean,

12:23

yeah, if you can have I don't even know

12:24

about this. I'm not really into that uh

12:26

at this moment. But if you have access

12:28

to direct API from these stadium

12:31

providers, you know, um sure you have an

12:34

edge, right? So if you can get that data

12:36

before everybody else, then you have a a

12:39

big big edge and you can you can use

12:40

that to trade with

12:43

the moment of theft player scores but

12:45

knows 200 milliseconds.

12:49

Yeah, he he knows it in 200

12:50

milliseconds. You see it in 30 seconds

12:55

except for the people that's that that

12:57

are at the stadium. Like how big are

12:59

these stadiums? It's like, you know,

13:00

thousands of people and probably maybe

13:02

they have their phone up, right, and and

13:04

playing the markets already. I I I don't

13:06

know, but I'm just guessing here. So, so

13:08

they are actually the one that have a a

13:10

even uh better

13:14

um edge, right? You are at the stadium.

13:16

You see it unfolding live. I'm sure of

13:19

people using that. So, I don't even know

13:20

if this is viable.

13:22

For those 30 seconds, Poly Market thinks

13:24

the score is zero. of people hold

13:26

position liquidity exits but buys

13:28

everything takes money from those who

13:30

live in signal delay when the gold shows

13:33

on TV is already selling your own bed

13:35

three times more expensive you are not

13:36

trading against him you're simply his

13:38

food supply yeah good example of how you

13:41

can create a bots if you have uh you

13:44

know more recent data than everybody

13:46

else you have an edge and this is like

13:49

that's that's basically everything right

13:51

yeah so I think that's it for now I I uh

13:53

don't think I have more post interesting

13:55

to show uh right now. So yeah, if you

13:58

haven't uh joined already, please do so.

14:00

We have the Discord here open and um we

14:04

have a lot of people joining. You can

14:05

see every like every almost every minute

14:07

we have people joining the server and we

14:09

have a good chat going on. So um you can

14:11

use the link down below and uh see you

14:13

on the next video. Have a good one. Bye.

Interactive Summary

The video discusses several intriguing developments and exploits in prediction markets. It highlights the quiet preparation for 5-minute up and down markets on Polymarket, which are expected to create new opportunities for trading bots. The speaker then details a "Wolf of Wall Street" level market manipulation where a trader made $233,000 by exploiting 15-minute Polymarkets and Binance's spot order book. Additionally, two other trading strategies are presented: one involving predicting Elon Musk's market movements based on his tweet frequency, and another focusing on sports arbitrage by leveraging real-time stadium data to trade on goals before they appear on TV broadcasts. The video emphasizes the importance of data advantage and the risks of market manipulation for automated trading systems.

Suggested questions

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