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How Long Can the American Economy Hold? — with Kai Ryssdal | Prof G Conversations

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How Long Can the American Economy Hold? — with Kai Ryssdal | Prof G Conversations

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1281 segments

0:00

It feels like we have a new era or we're

0:02

in a new era of financial markets where

0:04

the government is literally taking

0:05

equity stakes from private companies.

0:07

What do you make of this kind of state

0:09

capitalism, Kai?

0:10

It's state capitalism. I don't

0:12

understand how the party of free markets

0:15

and smaller government suddenly became

0:18

under Donald Trump the party of state

0:20

capitalism. And we all know that had

0:23

Biden or Obama done it, Washington would

0:25

have exploded. it would have just been

0:27

he would have been impeached like like

0:29

three days ago. I'm not sure it's a

0:30

healthy thing for the general economy.

0:34

Um and I know it's not a healthy thing

0:36

for the government of the United States

0:38

to be so heavily vested in state

0:41

capitalism.

0:47

Ky, where does this podcast find you?

0:50

I am in uh St. Paul, Minnesota,

0:52

corporate headquarters uh of the company

0:53

that owns Marketplace American Public

0:55

Media. All right. Well, listen, we very

0:57

much appreciate you here uh being here

0:59

and we have a bunch to get to. So, let's

1:01

start off with the government shutdown.

1:04

Um we're in the midst of a shutdown,

1:06

which means we're kind of flying blind

1:07

in terms of economic data. Can you paint

1:10

us a picture of what you're worried

1:12

about or paying attention to uh right

1:15

now?

1:16

Yeah, I'm worried about two things. Uh

1:18

three things. Uh the first thing I'm

1:21

worried about is uh obviously and most

1:23

importantly the data, right? we're not

1:25

getting the government data that's

1:26

helping the Federal Reserve figure out

1:27

which way this economy is going to go.

1:29

Uh and this is an interesting and a

1:31

critical moment for the Fed, right? I

1:32

mean, the New York Fed came out this

1:34

morning in its monthly survey and said

1:36

consumer expectations for inflation are

1:37

actually going up. And as we know, uh

1:40

inflation expectations can actually

1:42

drive what inflation does. So the idea

1:44

that consumers think inflation a year

1:46

out is going to be 3 and a half% or

1:47

better is really challenging. So this is

1:50

a perilous moment for the Fed just data

1:51

wise setting aside the politics of it

1:53

and we can get we can get into that if

1:54

you want to. So that's that's the first

1:56

thing I'm worried about. Second thing

1:57

I'm worried about now with this shutdown

2:00

um of course federal workers but federal

2:02

workers who are on the lower end of the

2:04

end cut spectrum right because they're

2:05

the ones who've been getting whacked

2:07

low-income consumers have been getting

2:09

whacked by the tariff passroughs that

2:11

have happened already. Um they're the

2:13

ones who are in the foulest mood.

2:15

They're the ones who have the least

2:16

disposable income. uh and they're the

2:19

ones, you know, let's call it the bottom

2:20

like 60% of the income spectrum um whose

2:23

spending is falling off, right? And

2:25

those uh in the top end are, you know,

2:28

inflation's a pain in the ass for

2:30

everybody, but most of us can bear it if

2:32

you're in the top end. If you're not,

2:34

that's a real real challenge. Uh and

2:37

then finally and and most importantly I

2:39

think on a on a macro scale is what it

2:42

says about the in just complete

2:45

inability of the government of the

2:46

United States to run itself and to

2:49

manage what is for now the most

2:51

important economy in the world. And it's

2:53

I mean it's just it's beyond parody.

2:56

What I find potentially more fragile is

3:00

that that data where the top 10% are now

3:03

responsible for half of consumer

3:04

spending.

3:07

And if there's a bit of a shock or a

3:09

slowdown or AI begins to unwind and the

3:12

10 companies driving 70% of the earnings

3:15

gains, if there's a little just a I

3:18

don't even call it a chill, but it goes

3:20

from 74 and breezy and sunny to 72 for

3:23

the top 10%. They can easily take their

3:25

spending down 10, 20, 30%. Whereas the

3:27

bottom 90, you know, they can't cut

3:29

their spending that much because they're

3:31

kind of spending money on essentials. Do

3:32

you worry? I worry that we're

3:35

increasingly fragile because a small

3:36

number of people are essentially holding

3:39

propping up the economy right now. Your

3:40

thoughts?

3:42

Yeah, look, that's actually been the way

3:44

for a long time now. Consumers overall,

3:46

as anybody who listens to marketplace

3:47

and probably listens to you knows

3:49

consumers spending by or on behalf of

3:51

consumers drives 70% of everything that

3:53

happens in this economy. And you're

3:54

right that that spending now is being

3:56

concentrated in the top part because the

3:59

lower half has to buy food, has to make

4:01

its car payments, has to do all of those

4:03

things. And when it's that concentrated

4:06

and we are on this cusp of tariff

4:08

impacts now finally starting to leak

4:11

through and consumers saying, I don't

4:14

know, then where does that leave us? You

4:16

know, it's I I think this is a more

4:19

perilous moment than than a lot of

4:21

forecasters are guessing. What are the

4:24

data blind spots that matter mo most for

4:26

the Fed or investors or for the average

4:28

person where you know we're we're flying

4:31

without instruments right now. What do

4:32

you think is the most valuable data that

4:34

we're not seeing?

4:36

Yeah. Look, I I think uh always it's the

4:39

jobs data and then for the Fed

4:41

secondarily PCE right personal

4:43

consumption expenditures and what

4:45

inflation is. And look, there are a

4:47

thousand PhD economists who work for the

4:49

Fed and they've got all kinds of private

4:50

data. But the catch is twofold. One is

4:53

private data is proprietary and not

4:55

everybody's willing to share it. But

4:56

number two, a lot of times that private

4:58

data is based on the public data that

5:00

the government puts out. And so when we

5:02

don't have that foundational information

5:04

of what's happening, then that renders

5:06

the Fed,

5:08

okay, soft landing, we had that whole

5:10

thing, you know, a number of months ago,

5:11

a year ago, whatever. The Fed's finally

5:12

going to do it. Let's complete the

5:14

analogy here, right? The the Fed had

5:16

this economy on final. Tariffs came in

5:19

and then the weather went to

5:21

right? Right. And when the weather goes

5:22

to hell and your instruments aren't

5:24

reliable, which is where the Fed is

5:25

right now, what can you do? And and my

5:28

guess would be, and I don't know, I

5:29

haven't spoken to Chair Pal in a very

5:31

long time. I've had, you know, Fed

5:32

presidents on the program from time to

5:34

time. My guess is that they're kind of

5:35

hanging on by their fingernails.

5:37

You're I think loosely my generation.

5:40

And when I talk to you,

5:41

I think we're like the same age

5:42

actually.

5:42

Yeah. Yeah. I think we are. Um let's

5:44

just say we're 50, Kai. Um let's say

5:47

that.

5:47

Let's say that. So a word that I find

5:50

people under the age of 50 are not

5:52

familiar with and that I think is we may

5:56

be on the the precipice of is

5:58

stagflation. So I see inflation

6:02

uh going up. Core inflation I think hit

6:03

3 and a half hit or 37. And meanwhile it

6:06

looks as if the jobs market is shaky.

6:10

And so this this chocolate or this not

6:13

chocolate and peanut butter which is a

6:14

good thing but this nitro and glycerin

6:15

which is a bad thing of low growth and

6:18

inflation stagflation

6:22

which is just the worst of all worlds.

6:23

Do you share my fears around that? I I

6:26

agree with you, but the most recent

6:28

indicators for GDP growth are like 3%

6:31

plus. The Atlanta Fed does this GDP now

6:33

tracker which has it like at 3.8% for

6:36

the current quarter, which is really

6:37

high. Now, is that sustainable? I'm not

6:40

sure, but we're not in stagflation yet.

6:42

A lot of the indicators are happening.

6:45

Inflation, as you said, the labor market

6:47

being really jittery, right? We're in

6:49

this low hiring, lowfiring labor market

6:52

environment, right? There's not a lot of

6:53

churn. Not a lot of people are getting

6:55

laid off, but not a lot of people are

6:56

getting hired either, which makes it

6:58

tougher to find a job now. So, we've got

7:01

two out of three, and I think the the

7:03

real question is what happens with

7:04

economic growth uh in this quarter and

7:06

then first quarter of of next year and

7:09

where that winds up sticking.

7:11

Do you worry, and I'm asked this, I

7:13

really don't know the answer to this

7:14

question. Is that 3.8 a number juice

7:17

because imports are are taken out of GDP

7:22

growth and because imports have

7:24

dramatically decreased that number is

7:27

somewhat artificially inflated if you

7:29

will.

7:30

Yeah, I think that GDP number is

7:32

actually challengeable because if that's

7:34

even a word challengeable because of

7:35

that exact formulation, right? C plus I

7:37

plus G plus net exports, right? And the

7:40

and the problem is the tariffs have

7:41

pulled all those imports forward now and

7:46

the numbers are not skewed, but they're

7:49

a little bit what's going on, you know?

7:51

Yeah. Let's talk about tariffs and

7:53

trade. There's been talk of a potential

7:55

bailout for American soybean farmers

7:57

who've been completely thrown under the

7:58

bus by Trump's tariffs. Um, Hill

8:02

Republicans estimate Trump could need to

8:04

send as much as 50 billion to farmers

8:06

hit by his own tariffs. roughly half the

8:08

revenue raised from those tariffs so

8:10

far. Can you walk us through the

8:11

economics here and what's actually

8:13

happening to farmers?

8:16

Yeah, they're they've actually gotten

8:18

shafted. That's the economics of it.

8:19

Look, I we've got a soybean farmer out

8:21

in Iowa that we talked to uh not

8:24

infrequently and I had her on about two

8:25

weeks ago. Uh she has zero orders. She

8:29

she's fine sort of cornwise, right?

8:31

Because there's lots of other uses. But

8:33

the American soybean farmers have had

8:36

zero Chinese orders. It used to be the

8:38

biggest market, right? And now because

8:40

of the president's trade war, the

8:42

Chinese are not buying American soybeans

8:44

anymore. They're going to Brazil and

8:46

other places. So all these soybean

8:48

farmers now are looking at a market

8:51

catastrophe truly because their largest

8:54

market has disappeared because of the

8:55

president's policies. So here's what's

8:57

happening. We're we have now a heavily

9:00

tariffed environment. Let's all remember

9:02

that tariffs are taxes on American

9:03

consumers and businesses. It's not China

9:05

that's paying the tariffs. It's not

9:06

Canada that's paying the tariffs.

9:08

American consumers and businesses are

9:09

paying the tariffs. It is a tax. So all

9:11

that money is going into the Treasury

9:13

without congressional authorization. By

9:15

the way, it is taxation almost literally

9:16

without representation. So that money is

9:19

now in the Treasury. The president is

9:20

going to and in ordinary times of which

9:23

we are not in, the president would need

9:25

congressional authorization to get these

9:27

bailouts to the farmers. The president's

9:28

going to take some of that tariff money

9:30

and redirect it to farmers so that we

9:32

don't have that American farming

9:34

catastrophe. It is a crisis completely

9:37

induced by the president. The pain being

9:40

borne by American farmers who are now

9:42

being subsidized by the taxes that are

9:44

the president's tariffs. It's it's the

9:48

most bizarre circular logic you're ever

9:50

going to find.

9:52

And my sense is I mean this is sort of

9:54

starting a fire and then charging

9:57

taxpayers for the cost to put it out,

9:59

right? It it's just a circular doesn't

10:02

make any sense. Do these did these

10:04

farmers ever have viable businesses? Was

10:07

I mean have we not been propping up

10:10

these farmers? And also on the back end,

10:13

my sense is this business is not coming

10:14

back. Even if we were to restore or do

10:17

away with the tariffs, China has

10:19

established secure supply routes or

10:22

sourcing from Argentina and Brazil as

10:24

you referenced that this the bottom line

10:26

is the American soybean farmer is is

10:28

going to be a thing of the past.

10:31

Yeah. So look, American farm policy for

10:32

the past 80 years is a conversation for

10:34

a whole different podcast and I'm not

10:35

well versed enough. But I can tell you

10:36

those markets are, as you say, never

10:39

ever coming back and and my corn and

10:41

soybean farmer in Iowa knows it. I

10:43

talked to a corn farmer in South Dakota.

10:45

He knows it. So now they're they're

10:48

looking for these markets. I mean, you

10:49

know, April Ems is a woman I've been

10:50

talking to for for honest to God, it's

10:52

been 10 years. She's been on this land

10:54

since she was a little girl. And now

10:56

what's she going to do with it? You

10:58

know, and American farming is is

11:00

challenging in the very best of times,

11:03

right? It's it's brutal and it's hard

11:05

and it's you are at the mercy of so many

11:08

elements. And now they're at the mercy

11:09

of the president of the United States.

11:11

Trump announced new tariffs on movies,

11:13

furniture, and other imported goods. How

11:16

far do you think he has to go before he

11:19

totally alienates his base here?

11:21

So, you forgot trucks, by the way. He

11:22

came out like yesterday, medium heavy

11:24

trucks now, 25%. Um, this is the

11:26

question I've been asking almost since

11:29

the beginning and and it's twofold. One

11:31

is what's it going to take to make

11:34

people realize what is happening, right?

11:38

And and the correlary of that is for our

11:40

leaders and for our elites in academia,

11:42

law, business, take your pick. How long

11:45

will it take them to realize they are on

11:47

the wrong side of history? Um because

11:51

this

11:52

look, we're we're less than a year in um

11:55

and one imagines that it will end

11:57

because it has to. The question is

11:59

what's the forcing function? What's it

12:02

going to take for people to understand

12:04

what is happening here? And this is a

12:06

much larger conversation than just the

12:07

economy, right? But I I bring it up

12:10

because the institutions of this

12:13

economy, all of them depend on the

12:16

institutions of this democracy. Rule of

12:18

law, transparency, fair regulation, the

12:20

right of recourse when wronged, all of

12:22

those things. And if people don't

12:24

understand that that's what's under

12:26

threat,

12:28

how do they expect the economy to

12:29

survive? Right? There was there was a

12:31

statistic out this morning. foreignborn

12:33

students are it's just cratered this

12:36

fall because of the president's

12:39

immigration policies and for uh his

12:41

conversations and and well conversations

12:44

is putting it very m charitably what

12:47

he's doing to higher education you know

12:51

immigrants to this country look

12:52

immigration is a labor market problem

12:54

but it's also a source of innovation and

12:56

dynamism and intellectual vigor that we

12:59

are now not getting because the

13:01

institutions of this democracy are under

13:02

fire.

13:04

And

13:06

I don't know about you, I've actually

13:07

been struck at how

13:10

resilient the economy has been. I would

13:12

have thought if someone had laid out

13:14

these policies, I would have said, "Wow,

13:16

that recession here we come." And it

13:19

appears that I must think of that

13:21

analogy that, you know, twothirds of an

13:24

of a of a iceberg's mass is below the

13:26

water. And it what I I mean one of two

13:30

things is happening. Either we're wrong

13:32

about the president's policies and

13:34

they're not you know there's some merit

13:36

to them or two the reality is that the

13:40

American economy is this juggernaut that

13:42

quite frankly it's like don't bother me

13:45

I'm just going to continue to grind on.

13:47

And have you been surprised at how

13:49

resilient the American economy has been?

13:50

I am completely surprised. Uh but

13:53

there's there's a couple of warning

13:54

signs. Right. First of all, I'm obliged

13:56

to say here, and as you know, the stock

13:59

market is not the economy. And the stock

14:00

market is not being driven by economic

14:01

fundamentals right now. It's being

14:03

driven by AI spending to the tune of

14:05

hundreds of billions of dollars. And

14:06

whether or not that's sustainable is, I

14:09

think, very much up in the air. You're

14:10

you're far more versed in that than I

14:12

am. Uh the American economy is a 29.9ish

14:17

trillion dollar beast. And so the tariff

14:19

impact so far has been relatively small.

14:24

It's the uncertainty, I think, that's

14:25

actually been driving the small

14:27

businesses saying, "I don't know if we

14:29

can do this. We're going to have to

14:30

raise prices." And then that trickles

14:31

down to the consumers. But I think

14:33

there's a there's another thing that's

14:34

that's happening here. And and you know,

14:37

the president and his cabinet officials

14:39

will tell you the president's um they

14:42

give three excuses for the tariffs,

14:43

right? One is to revitalize American

14:45

manufacturing, one is to generate

14:46

revenue, and the other one is to protect

14:48

American jobs. Um, the problem is that

14:51

you can't do all three of those things

14:52

at the same time because if you

14:55

revitalize American manufacturing, then

14:56

we're going to start importing less and

14:57

you're going to have less revenue. We

14:59

haven't got the workforce that wants to

15:01

do a lot of the jobs the president is

15:02

trying to protect. He announced

15:03

furniture tariffs like 10 days, two

15:05

weeks ago. I was talking to a furniture

15:06

guy a week ago in North Carolina, which

15:09

used to be the hub of American furniture

15:10

manufacturing, and he said, "I there are

15:13

not 5,000 woodworkers that I can hire to

15:15

make my high-end furniture. They just

15:17

don't exist in this country anymore."

15:18

And so the president is trying, and this

15:20

is not my original thought by any means,

15:22

the president is trying to take us back

15:24

to an economy of the ' 50s, '60s, and

15:25

70s. And it's the world isn't that

15:28

anymore. It's just not.

15:32

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[Music]

17:24

We're back with more from Kai Rudolph.

17:28

I'd love to get your thoughts on the

17:30

recent uh Secretary of War summit. You

17:34

spent eight years in the Navy and I'd

17:37

love to get your reaction to Secretary

17:39

Hegsth's speech to roughly I think it

17:41

was about 800 admirals and generals at

17:43

Quantico where he told them essentially

17:45

to I saw it as embrace MAGA or quit. Uh

17:48

I what what were your reactions when you

17:50

saw that speech? I um uh it was

17:53

disgraceful. It was laughable and it was

17:56

an embarrassment to the armed forces of

17:57

the United States. and and people need

17:59

to understand, you know, I've been in

18:01

journalism now for 25ish years, but but

18:04

the most important thing to know about

18:05

me is that I'm a veteran and and how

18:08

that shapes

18:10

um how I see the world. Um

18:14

uh look, Secretary Hath is unqualified.

18:19

Full stop. I am as qualified as he is to

18:22

be the Secretary of Defense, and I'm not

18:24

I'm not qualified. Right. Um uh I I was

18:29

heartened in that speech to see all

18:31

those flag and general officers sitting

18:33

on their hands um and doing exactly what

18:36

one would expect of them. Uh I am I I

18:40

feel badly for them because they're

18:42

going to have to go back to the troops

18:46

and and explain

18:48

what the hell happened and what the

18:50

marching instructions are. and they're

18:52

going to have to do it in a way that

18:54

maintains unit cohesion and the

18:56

viability of the force and and that's

18:58

going to be really challenging uh

19:00

because of the way the secretary and

19:01

also the president treat the military as

19:04

if it's here's the quote they are his

19:06

generals which of course they are not. I

19:08

think honestly a more troubling speech

19:10

was the thing that the president did

19:12

this past weekend down in in Norfolk to

19:15

uh to celebrate the Navy's 250th

19:17

anniversary.

19:18

And he had behind him uh enlisted and a

19:22

couple of officer members of the Navy

19:25

and he walked out and he said, "Hey,

19:27

this is a rally." I mean, this is

19:29

literally what he said. He said, "Ah,

19:30

it's a rally. Who are we kidding?" And

19:32

the crowd behind him, all active duty

19:34

military, went crazy. They were

19:36

applauding, jumping up, down, just

19:38

cheering them on, all of this. And that

19:41

to me is ju it's I don't understand how

19:44

the commanding officers of these sailors

19:47

let that happen. It if professionalism

19:50

in the service means anything to you, it

19:53

means that you are a political and that

19:55

you, as the flag and general officers

19:56

did at that speech in Quantico, you sit

19:59

on your hands. Now, of course, that's

20:01

not why those guys were chosen. And

20:02

there is some measure of the American

20:03

military, probably sizable, that is in

20:05

favor of the president. But that ain't

20:09

it. That can't be it. And it's and it's

20:11

deeply deeply damaging.

20:13

Talk a little bit about your service.

20:14

What what was the motivation for joining

20:16

the Navy? And I assume you were in it

20:19

longer than you you were commissioned or

20:21

obligated to. You're in for eight years.

20:23

Give give us some color around your

20:25

service.

20:26

I um so when I went to college, I

20:28

thought I was going to be a lawyer. Uh,

20:30

and I I took all those, you know,

20:32

pre-law courses and this and that. And

20:34

then when I was a a freshman, I had a

20:37

very good friend of mine who was a um I

20:39

was a sophomore. She was a senior. She

20:41

was five kappa, you know, maxed out her

20:43

elsats, all this jazz. Applied to all

20:44

the top law schools and got into none of

20:46

them. Um, and I said, "Well, you know,

20:49

screw this. I don't I don't need to go

20:50

to law school." So, I farted around for

20:52

a couple of years. And then and then um

20:54

when I was a senior, a guy who had been

20:58

a fraternity brother of mine a year

20:59

ahead of me came back uh on leave from

21:03

Navy flight school. Um and that uh it

21:07

just it it appealed to me. It's um my

21:10

father served my father got his

21:11

citizenship by serving back in the 50s.

21:15

So I took the entrance exams. I went

21:17

down to officer candidate school in

21:18

Pensacola. Um, got my wings and then

21:22

went to the fleet. I flew E2C Hawkeyes

21:25

off the USS Theater Roosevelt for three

21:26

years. I did.

21:27

So, you you were a pilot.

21:30

Yeah, I flew.

21:30

I did not know that. I I would have

21:32

thought you were too tall to be a pilot.

21:34

No, you know, that's so interesting.

21:36

That's the second time in a couple of

21:36

days somebody has said that. No, when I

21:38

was uh in the recruiting station, you

21:40

had to do all kinds of anthropometric

21:41

measurements. They sit you in this seat

21:43

and they measure your, you know, your

21:44

tibia length and your upper body and all

21:46

this jazz and and I fit. So, so you

21:49

know,

21:49

and what was the aircraft you flew?

21:52

I flew E2C Hawkeyes, which uh they're

21:54

now E2Ds. They've been upgraded, but

21:56

they're large turborop aircraft,

21:58

carrierbased that have the big radom on

22:00

top. So, the uh the mission is command

22:02

control and and airspace battle space

22:05

management. Um, so I did that for three

22:08

and a half years. rolled out of my fleet

22:10

squadron on August the 1st, 1990, which

22:14

if August the 2nd, 1990 rings a bell,

22:16

that's when um Saddam Hussein went into

22:18

Kuwait. So, I rolled out of my fleet

22:20

squadron right before they got uh

22:23

alerted to go to the Gulf. I I wound up

22:25

in the Pentagon and the Joint Chiefs of

22:27

Staff for um I guess the rest of my

22:29

service. I was like two and a half more

22:31

years, right? Flight training was two.

22:32

Yeah. So, I was in eight years soup to

22:34

nuts the last couple years uh on staff

22:37

duty at the Pentagon. Um, look, it it um

22:41

it it defines me to this day. It it is a

22:45

sense of obligation and gratitude for

22:48

what the military and this nation has

22:49

given me. Um, and I um and that's why

22:53

that's why honestly that's why what's

22:54

going on now is just so just disturbing

22:59

and horrible.

23:01

Do you think we'd benefit from mandatory

23:02

national service?

23:03

Oh, yeah. I've I've advocated for that

23:05

forever. I think we would be a different

23:07

country. We don't know each other

23:09

anymore,

23:10

right? We don't and and look, it's a

23:12

generational thing. And and I I try to I

23:16

try to, you know, even my own kids, I

23:18

try to get them to understand this. And

23:19

and you know, my service, I imagine

23:22

they're proud of it, but I don't think

23:23

it resonates with them in a this is what

23:26

I want to do kind of thing, you know.

23:28

And do you think that type of national

23:30

service um you know should would just be

23:34

the military or different options around

23:36

senior care?

23:36

No, look there is there are zillion ways

23:38

to serve. Teach for America,

23:40

Americanore, you know, what have you,

23:42

right? In fact, we don't have the

23:45

capacity to do all to accept all the

23:48

national service volunteers that we

23:50

have. Our programs are not big enough.

23:53

We have more volunteers than we can

23:56

take. Right? It's setting aside the

23:57

military. Let's let's not make it a

23:59

draft, right? Because that just

24:00

complicates the issue in a zillion

24:01

different ways. But if you're just

24:03

looking at national service, we don't

24:05

have the infrastructure to support all

24:07

the volunteers who want to do something

24:09

for this country. So obviously, we would

24:11

have to spend money and Congress would

24:12

have to appropriate and we'd have to get

24:14

all the programs up and running. But I

24:16

believe it's a worthwhile national goal

24:18

because as I said I there's the the the

24:22

gap in our knowledge of each other is

24:24

enormous

24:26

and and that changes who we are as a

24:28

society. And look I I don't think you

24:30

have to look any farther than the

24:31

current political environment to see

24:33

that

24:34

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26:42

We're back with more from Ky Rdall.

26:46

Just to pivot back to the um economy

26:49

right now, it feels like we have a new

26:51

era or we're in a new era of financial

26:53

markets where the government is

26:55

literally taking equity stakes from

26:56

private companies. The Trump

26:59

administration now holds positions in

27:01

Intel, MP Materials, lithium Americas,

27:03

Trilogy Metals, and even a new golden

27:05

share in US Steel. What do you make of

27:08

this kind of state capitalism, Kai? It's

27:11

state capitalism. I don't understand how

27:13

the party of free markets and smaller

27:16

government suddenly became under Donald

27:19

Trump the party of state capitalism. And

27:22

we all know that had Biden or Obama done

27:25

it,

27:26

Washington would have exploded. It would

27:28

have just been he would have been

27:29

impeached like like 3 days ago. Um it it

27:34

is in in my opinion uh not a healthy

27:38

thing for corporate America. Um I'm not

27:40

sure it's a healthy thing for the

27:43

general economy. Um, and I know it's not

27:46

a healthy thing for the government of

27:48

the United States to be so heavily

27:50

vested in state capitalism. It just it's

27:54

Look, there are a zillion problems with

27:56

American capitalism. Two zillion

27:59

problems.

28:00

But the government taking actual equity

28:04

stakes or taking profits from Nvidia for

28:08

sales of certain chips to China,

28:11

I how does that help or fix anything?

28:14

I don't understand it. And it's and it's

28:17

I I don't Look, this goes to a much

28:20

larger conversation about about what has

28:21

happened to our our political elites who

28:25

see these things happening. Republicans

28:26

specifically who have the power, all the

28:28

power in Washington. Um and are uh in

28:32

private saying one thing and then in

28:34

public saying, "I'm sorry, I didn't see

28:35

the tweet." You know, um

28:39

I I don't know. So it feels as if we

28:42

have two uh and I like what you said

28:44

before and I agree that the stock market

28:46

is not the economy but within the stock

28:49

market you have 10 companies responsible

28:50

for 70% of the gains. There's I think

28:53

it's a misnomer to say the S&P 500. I

28:56

feel like there's the S&P 490 and the

28:58

S&P 10. And you're talking about just

29:00

two totally different universes.

29:02

The S&P 10 is largely driven on, you

29:05

know, AI or optimism and expectations

29:08

around AI right now. as someone covers

29:10

these stories every day. What does your

29:11

gut tell you about where we are with not

29:15

only with AI, but it's it's the

29:18

expectations in the runup in the in

29:20

these stocks? My disclaimer here is that

29:24

uh I'm not a financial analyst. I'm not

29:26

a market specialist. I'm a guy who's

29:28

been covering the general economy for 25

29:30

years. I don't actually control any of

29:32

my own investments. my wife uh because

29:38

number one she's better at it and number

29:39

two she's more interested in it is in

29:41

charge of of all of our money um and the

29:45

other reason is because I should not

29:46

have a platform that I have and be

29:48

talking about these companies with a

29:49

stake in them. So just just to get that

29:51

on the table um look that which cannot

29:54

go up forever will not and the rate at

29:57

which AI spending has been exploding

30:01

seems to me to be unsustainable. The

30:04

other catch, of course, is that all of

30:06

these data centers and all of these

30:08

tools that are being built out aren't

30:10

actually going to employ a whole lot of

30:12

people. And in point of fact, what AI is

30:15

going to do is make a whole lot of jobs

30:17

in this economy not necessary anymore.

30:20

And that I think is the is the economic

30:22

flip side of this explosion. At some

30:25

point, the lack of returns in real

30:28

economy terms

30:31

from this AI investment is going to land

30:34

and that I think is going to be a real

30:36

challenge because the economy has been

30:38

built now on the S&P 10.

30:43

We've been writing or I've been thinking

30:44

a lot about how AI is going to impact

30:47

Hollywood and the creative community in

30:49

Southern California. And it just it

30:52

feels as if I went to

30:55

um I my kids are a little bit younger

30:57

than yours, Kai. I had so I have to go

30:58

to I have to endure superhero films. And

31:01

I went to see the Fantastic Four. And

31:04

the thing that just blew me away was the

31:06

credits were 7 minutes long. And I did

31:09

some research. 3,400 people worked on

31:11

this film, which is more people than

31:14

worked at Red Work at Reddit or Lyft.

31:16

And I all I could see was uh the Greek

31:19

glands of Sam Alman going, "Oh my god,

31:22

wait until I la." Have you guys done any

31:24

stories or do you have any observations

31:26

around um there's we make this general

31:30

assumption and I think it's probably

31:31

correct that there's going to be some

31:33

labor force destruction at the hands of

31:35

AI. Have you done any stories or do you

31:37

have any thoughts specifically around AI

31:38

as it relates to kind of the creative

31:40

community in Hollywood? Yeah, let's

31:42

preface this by saying even before AI

31:45

really hit the Hollywood community,

31:48

movie making in Southern California was

31:50

really challenged, right? Other places

31:51

are offering tax incentives, Georgia,

31:53

right? So, so that's really part of part

31:55

of the problem. Um,

31:58

so we do have folks who who do AI

32:00

stories. the the the thing about AI that

32:04

that gets me every time is that the hype

32:06

around AI coming from Sam Alman and the

32:09

like uh is what's driving all the hype

32:12

around AI, right? Alman is going out

32:16

there saying we can we're going to

32:17

create this I mean this this new video

32:20

platform that they have Sora whatever

32:21

the hell it is. I mean what what are we

32:24

even doing that we are taking a video

32:28

platform and making it produce or

32:32

letting people produce just completely

32:34

fantastical videos that we are now going

32:36

to just watch like we watch Instagram

32:38

and actual people. So the destruction of

32:40

the creative class I think is is very

32:43

real. And then and then the extension of

32:44

course is you know creativity is what

32:47

makes us people and consuming the arts

32:50

cinema, movies, TV, actual art is what

32:54

makes us humanity. And if that becomes

32:58

machine driven

33:00

then where do we go?

33:04

Speaking of which, or the the media

33:06

community, obviously you're you're a key

33:07

figure in in the media and in the news

33:09

media.

33:11

Curious,

33:12

you're giving me too much credit, but

33:13

thank you.

33:14

Uh well, it's funny. I sort of I I

33:16

you're little I think the Wall Street

33:18

Journal, The Economist, and Kai Rzdoll

33:20

were some of my early like prompts

33:22

around being interested in business. the

33:25

what I'm cur any thoughts on um the

33:28

Ellison's acquiring free press and Barry

33:31

Weiss being appointed editor-inchief of

33:34

uh of CBS.

33:37

So, look, there's there's a whole rant

33:40

to be had on the media and what it means

33:42

in this moment. Consolidation of media

33:45

power is in and of itself challenging to

33:49

a democracy. Right? look at Jeff Bezos

33:52

and his personal ownership of the

33:54

Washington Post and what it has meant

33:56

for that once great paper. Um, the idea

33:59

that Ellison now controls a major movie

34:01

studio and one of the big three

34:04

broadcast networks, even though

34:06

broadcast television is in secular

34:08

decline and he's appointed Barry White,

34:11

Barry Weiss, excuse me, uh, an opinion

34:14

journalist as it is editor-inchief. I

34:16

mean, I can't imagine what it's like

34:18

actually inside CBS News right now. I I

34:20

imagine, you know, she gave this speech

34:22

this morning. I don't know when you guys

34:23

are going to drop this pod, but she gave

34:24

this speech this morning introducing

34:26

herself to the CBS new staff, and I I

34:28

have to imagine eyes were rolling all

34:31

over the place. Um this because this is

34:35

such a perilous moment for this

34:37

democracy.

34:39

The importance of accurate factbased not

34:44

afraid to use actual words for what's

34:46

happening journalism is critical

34:51

and and you see the New York Times

34:53

slowly turning the corner from false

34:56

claims to lies. Just for instance, a

34:59

credulous media will be the death of

35:01

this republic. It really will because

35:04

unless we're actually willing to say

35:06

what is happening, and as a federal

35:07

judge said the other day, the

35:08

president's position is untethered from

35:10

the facts, speaking about Portland,

35:14

uh unless we're willing to say that

35:18

in our journalism,

35:20

we are we are failing this democracy.

35:23

So, uh, just a couple thesis or I'll put

35:27

forward a couple thesis and you respond

35:29

to them. I think a lot of people see the

35:31

free press as

35:33

being a necessary counterweight to what

35:36

has become an increasingly progressive

35:39

media complexion that sometimes

35:42

uh has its own its own issues with the

35:46

quote unquote the truth because the

35:47

truth sometimes does not I don't know

35:49

fit into a progressive orthodoxy. Any

35:53

you know any thoughts on that? So, look,

35:55

I I think uh the the mainstream media,

35:58

for lack of a better phrase, uh is

36:00

generally progressive. Uh but I think it

36:03

is also blindered and hindered by its

36:08

centuries of journalistic invention,

36:11

which has led it now not to call uh a

36:14

lie a lie. We're we're slowly making

36:17

that turn. And look, this applies to

36:18

marketplace as well. But it is it is

36:22

incumbent upon us to broaden our

36:24

horizons at a time when sorry, that's a

36:27

stupid phrase. Broaden your horizons is

36:28

a is a trit phrase. It is incumbent upon

36:31

us to actually say to our listeners, our

36:34

viewers, and our readers what is what is

36:36

what is factually happening as opposed

36:39

to some euphemism. to the point of the

36:41

free press in particular. Right. Look,

36:44

free press and and conser conser small C

36:47

conservative traditional conservative

36:49

media is fine, but when you have

36:52

propaganda outlets that are operating

36:55

under a tenant of, oh, we're just doing

36:57

journalism from a conservative

36:58

perspective, that's not what is

37:02

happening, right? You you are not

37:05

actually doing journalism. You are

37:07

carrying water for an element of the

37:11

body politic

37:13

that is seeking to deceive and to

37:17

manipulate

37:18

the people of this economy and this

37:20

country.

37:21

Would you describe CNN and the New York

37:23

Times as being propaganda outlets?

37:25

Uh I I would No, they're not. They're

37:28

not propaganda outlets. That said, I've

37:31

got problems with with some of the

37:33

things both of them do, as I'm sure they

37:34

have problems with some of the things I

37:35

do. Right. that's that's it's not, you

37:37

know, tit for tat here. Um, but when you

37:40

have the reach of CNN and when you have

37:43

the reach of public radio and when you

37:46

have the reach of the New York Times,

37:48

you do nobody any service by both sides,

37:53

by using euphemisms, by not saying what

37:57

is actually happening.

37:59

you know, we've we've had this

38:00

conversation inside marketplace and I've

38:02

had it with the corporate bosses.

38:05

And I sometimes I win and sometimes I

38:07

lose. Um but but if I'm not telling

38:11

people what is happening, then I'm I

38:14

it's malpractice.

38:17

I've been struck by how much attention

38:19

the acquisition of Free Press has

38:21

received. $150 million acquisition.

38:23

Well, $150 million, right? That'll get

38:25

you. Well, but there's there was an $80

38:28

billion merger among railroad companies.

38:30

There's been five five acquisitions of

38:32

of 8 billion or more in the last week,

38:34

and no one really cares. Um, I I find

38:37

that and maybe for good reason, the

38:38

media is sort of obsessed with itself,

38:40

but I guess my question is the

38:41

following. Does CBS even matter anymore?

38:45

Does it matter who's running it? I mean,

38:46

I don't know anyone that watches CBS. It

38:48

feels I look at CBS, NBC, and ABC and I

38:52

feel like it's 21 minutes of the exact

38:54

same damn thing and then a cute story

38:55

about a bear that a woman's feeding

38:57

hamburger helper to every night. It just

39:00

Do the Are these guys are they relevant

39:02

anymore?

39:03

Yeah, I think that's a really good point

39:04

and it's tough to argue. I I will only

39:06

argue for what it symbolizes, right? uh

39:09

CBS, the Tiffany network, the network of

39:12

Walter Kankite and Edward Ar Muro, and

39:14

maybe I'm I'm way naval gazing on

39:16

journalism history, but there was a

39:18

point where those names and more

39:21

importantly what they stood for, right?

39:24

Muro gives the, you know, television

39:26

just tubes in a box unless we do it

39:29

right. um what they stood for and I

39:32

think that's what is now being being

39:35

sacrificed

39:37

as opinion journalism goes mainstream.

39:42

You know, Barry Weiss won't be able to

39:44

decide, you know, how many cameras to

39:46

send on a story and she probably won't

39:48

be involved in foreign desk assignments,

39:51

but she because David Ellison said so

39:56

will be able to influence what it is

39:58

that CBS News does. And what she does is

40:01

opinion journalism for which there is a

40:03

place. Um but but at that scale and

40:10

and in that vessel of what CBS News used

40:12

to be once was um is I don't I don't I I

40:19

think that's the the my mental

40:20

disconnect on that one.

40:22

How are you guys

40:24

um evaluate you're presenting? You're a

40:27

key figure in

40:30

um in public media or the public media

40:33

program marketplace.

40:35

How are you guys adapting? Like what's

40:37

working, what isn't? if you as you try

40:39

to thread the needle between economic

40:42

viability

40:44

and and thoughtful fact check

40:47

journalism, which by the way is I find

40:49

it's just a shitty business and

40:51

economically really challenged. How what

40:54

do you what do you think you guys are

40:55

doing well and not well and how are you

40:56

adapting to this new environment of

40:59

media while trying to stay true to the

41:01

roots of journalism which sometimes

41:03

quite frankly is just not economically

41:05

viable?

41:06

Yeah. Look, so we inside marketplace uh

41:09

and inside the corporate structure that

41:10

that owns marketplace um we are we are

41:14

uh really challenged in how we go from a

41:18

legacy media outlet, right, where

41:21

marketplace used to be appointment

41:23

listening. It was drive time. It was

41:24

people making their dinner and and it

41:26

used to be on the radio. And now, right,

41:29

that's all gone since the pandemic.

41:30

Ain't nobody driving anymore, right? And

41:32

podcasts are up and and all of that

41:34

stuff. So our challenge now is to meet

41:37

people where they are and to develop

41:38

this multi-channel strategy where we're

41:40

going to do video, we're going to do on

41:42

demand, we're going to do broadcast

41:43

media because oh by the way broad for

41:46

marketplace

41:48

broadcast is where the money is. So the

41:52

challenge now for for me and if my

41:54

corporate bosses hear this, well, we'll

41:56

see what happens. But the challenge now

41:57

for me is and me and and meaning the

42:00

larger marketplace enterprise is to

42:02

convince our parent company that

42:05

investment in marketplace as we make

42:07

this transition for which we are late by

42:09

the way to a multi-channel uh operation

42:12

will pay returns that will make up for

42:15

the loss of broadcast revenue. Right?

42:17

our broadcast revenue is up here. Our on

42:18

demand revenue is down here. And we

42:20

clearly need to change that. We need to

42:22

stabilize it and equalize it or it needs

42:24

to go like this. And those are the

42:25

conversations we're having, right? I

42:26

mean, I'm I'm on a trip to corporate HQ

42:29

now to talk about philanthropy and

42:30

development and donations and and all of

42:33

those things because the public media

42:36

news model, set aside for a second the

42:39

recision and the withdrawing of funding

42:41

for the CPB. Public media right now is

42:44

in a really challenged space as we make

42:47

this transition to multi-channel on

42:50

demand and video from a legacy broadcast

42:52

outlet. Kai, where do you get your what

42:55

are your go-tos for information? I'm

42:57

always asked this question and I never

42:58

have a good response because I think I'm

43:00

a little bit embarrassed about how I

43:02

have transitioned from the New York

43:04

Times, The Economist, the Wall Street

43:05

Journal to quite frankly social media.

43:07

I'm now I have great people on TikTok

43:10

and on reals economists and people I

43:12

think are really really smart that no

43:14

one's ever heard of that inform my

43:16

viewpoint before you take to the radio

43:19

which is you're obviously going to read

43:21

the facts but you're also going to have

43:22

a spin on you know it's I won't even

43:24

call a spin you're going to have

43:25

thoughtful color on stuff where do you

43:28

find color on the economy who are your

43:30

trusted resources

43:32

here here's so I do in essence I have

43:34

done and my my journey has been the

43:36

exact same Right. Going from the times

43:38

and the economist and the journal and

43:40

all those to social media. The the thing

43:42

I spend most of my time on honestly in

43:45

news gathering is going uh finding a

43:48

thing on social media and digging down

43:50

on that. Finding a nugget, finding a

43:52

person, right? I mean there are so many

43:55

really interesting people on social

43:56

media. Social media is a hell hole in a

43:58

whole lot of ways. But you find people

44:00

there and then you follow them and then

44:02

you read their writing and then you read

44:04

their substacks and that's how you

44:06

gather and you synthesize and then by

44:08

the time marketplace goes on the air

44:10

hopefully I have a coherent view on what

44:12

is happening that day not just from the

44:15

times in the journal but from people who

44:17

have look and you got to you got to test

44:19

their credibility and and all of those

44:21

things. But once you've done that and

44:23

you realize that they're the go-tos,

44:25

then you you use them and you synthesize

44:28

their information into the way you

44:30

present whatever we have chosen as our

44:32

lead story or whatever the feature story

44:33

is.

44:34

And just as we wrap up here, you're kind

44:36

of rounding third in terms of your

44:38

career. Have you thought about

44:39

Thanks, man. Well, you're you've you

44:42

you're an iconic whether you like it or

44:44

not. You're sort of an iconic figure

44:45

that kind of marks marks the the medium

44:48

or at least the approach to the medium.

44:51

What professionally,

44:54

well, I'll say and personally, what I've

44:57

been thinking and there's a lot of this

44:59

is projection because I'm just so

45:01

freaked out about being 60. I

45:02

can't stop thinking about the fact that

45:04

it's, you know, we're we're not on the

45:06

back nine. We're on the 18th hole is the

45:08

way I see it. And

45:10

like what have you what have you thought

45:13

about professionally? What boxes are

45:15

left for you to check? And also if

45:16

you're comfortable like personally I

45:18

think you're you're you guys are now

45:19

empty nesters, right?

45:21

Yeah. So our youngest child, our

45:23

daughter, we just dropped our daughter

45:24

off at school two weeks ago.

45:26

Oh, congrats. I would love for you let's

45:28

start there. What was that like?

45:31

Uh so the the the good part is it's

45:34

going really well so far. So we dropped

45:35

off from school. We took a a long slow

45:38

drive down the California coast back to

45:40

LA. Uh we had three or four days to just

45:44

sort of decompress, you know. Um she she

45:48

was ready to go, you know. She was like,

45:49

"Okay, see you later." Right. And and my

45:52

wife and I were like, "Oh, really? Okay,

45:54

bye." And um

45:56

uh and and then we got back home and we

45:58

kind of slid right in. Um the house is

46:01

quieter. um we we are not buying as much

46:05

food which makes total sense but after

46:07

so you know we've been parenting kids

46:09

for 27 years our refrigerator has been

46:11

stocked I have three boys who are you

46:13

know just ginormous eaters so the amount

46:16

of food in the fridge is just shockingly

46:18

small um but but the mental change to

46:23

the two of us is going really well I

46:26

think it's um we are rediscovering

46:29

um how to be a couple again with kids

46:31

bopping in and out every now and then.

46:33

On the professional front,

46:35

um,

46:37

as as I like to say to the kids when

46:40

they were little, you know, dad, what do

46:41

you do and do you know this and are you

46:43

a celebrity and all that, I'd be like,

46:44

you know what, I'm a pretty big fish in

46:46

a very small public media pond. Um,

46:50

so the next chapter now, I figure I've

46:52

got one left, maybe two if I play my

46:54

cards right, is increasingly on my mind.

46:58

Uh, where do I go from here? I am

47:02

indelibly associated with Marketplace

47:04

and the Marketplace brand, which to be

47:06

clear is a privilege and an honor,

47:08

right? I'm I'm super proud of the work

47:10

I've done at this program for for 20

47:12

years, 25 in the shop. Um, now, where do

47:15

I go? What do I do? And and not to, you

47:18

know, I don't need to blow smoke up your

47:19

ass, but I'm I'm always impressed when I

47:22

listen to you um talk about your career

47:25

path about how you bet on yourself. And

47:28

that's my challenge now is to bet on

47:29

myself and figure out where I'm going to

47:31

go.

47:31

Kyus Doll is the host and senior editor

47:34

of the public media program Marketplace,

47:36

the nation's most listened to show on

47:38

business and the economy. Uh so anyways,

47:41

brother, thanks very much and keep on

47:42

keeping on.

47:43

Thank you. Good to talk to you.

47:46

[Music]

Interactive Summary

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The video discusses the current state of financial markets, the rise of state capitalism under the Trump administration, and the potential economic implications of government shutdowns. It delves into concerns about inflation, consumer spending patterns, and the fragility of an economy increasingly reliant on a small segment of high-income earners. The conversation also touches upon the impact of tariffs on American farmers, particularly soybean farmers, and the broader economic and political consequences of trade wars. Additionally, the video explores the role of AI in the economy, its potential to disrupt the job market, and its impact on creative industries. Finally, it addresses the challenges facing journalism in the current media landscape, the importance of fact-based reporting, and the personal and professional reflections of the host.

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