How Long Can the American Economy Hold? — with Kai Ryssdal | Prof G Conversations
1281 segments
It feels like we have a new era or we're
in a new era of financial markets where
the government is literally taking
equity stakes from private companies.
What do you make of this kind of state
capitalism, Kai?
It's state capitalism. I don't
understand how the party of free markets
and smaller government suddenly became
under Donald Trump the party of state
capitalism. And we all know that had
Biden or Obama done it, Washington would
have exploded. it would have just been
he would have been impeached like like
three days ago. I'm not sure it's a
healthy thing for the general economy.
Um and I know it's not a healthy thing
for the government of the United States
to be so heavily vested in state
capitalism.
Ky, where does this podcast find you?
I am in uh St. Paul, Minnesota,
corporate headquarters uh of the company
that owns Marketplace American Public
Media. All right. Well, listen, we very
much appreciate you here uh being here
and we have a bunch to get to. So, let's
start off with the government shutdown.
Um we're in the midst of a shutdown,
which means we're kind of flying blind
in terms of economic data. Can you paint
us a picture of what you're worried
about or paying attention to uh right
now?
Yeah, I'm worried about two things. Uh
three things. Uh the first thing I'm
worried about is uh obviously and most
importantly the data, right? we're not
getting the government data that's
helping the Federal Reserve figure out
which way this economy is going to go.
Uh and this is an interesting and a
critical moment for the Fed, right? I
mean, the New York Fed came out this
morning in its monthly survey and said
consumer expectations for inflation are
actually going up. And as we know, uh
inflation expectations can actually
drive what inflation does. So the idea
that consumers think inflation a year
out is going to be 3 and a half% or
better is really challenging. So this is
a perilous moment for the Fed just data
wise setting aside the politics of it
and we can get we can get into that if
you want to. So that's that's the first
thing I'm worried about. Second thing
I'm worried about now with this shutdown
um of course federal workers but federal
workers who are on the lower end of the
end cut spectrum right because they're
the ones who've been getting whacked
low-income consumers have been getting
whacked by the tariff passroughs that
have happened already. Um they're the
ones who are in the foulest mood.
They're the ones who have the least
disposable income. uh and they're the
ones, you know, let's call it the bottom
like 60% of the income spectrum um whose
spending is falling off, right? And
those uh in the top end are, you know,
inflation's a pain in the ass for
everybody, but most of us can bear it if
you're in the top end. If you're not,
that's a real real challenge. Uh and
then finally and and most importantly I
think on a on a macro scale is what it
says about the in just complete
inability of the government of the
United States to run itself and to
manage what is for now the most
important economy in the world. And it's
I mean it's just it's beyond parody.
What I find potentially more fragile is
that that data where the top 10% are now
responsible for half of consumer
spending.
And if there's a bit of a shock or a
slowdown or AI begins to unwind and the
10 companies driving 70% of the earnings
gains, if there's a little just a I
don't even call it a chill, but it goes
from 74 and breezy and sunny to 72 for
the top 10%. They can easily take their
spending down 10, 20, 30%. Whereas the
bottom 90, you know, they can't cut
their spending that much because they're
kind of spending money on essentials. Do
you worry? I worry that we're
increasingly fragile because a small
number of people are essentially holding
propping up the economy right now. Your
thoughts?
Yeah, look, that's actually been the way
for a long time now. Consumers overall,
as anybody who listens to marketplace
and probably listens to you knows
consumers spending by or on behalf of
consumers drives 70% of everything that
happens in this economy. And you're
right that that spending now is being
concentrated in the top part because the
lower half has to buy food, has to make
its car payments, has to do all of those
things. And when it's that concentrated
and we are on this cusp of tariff
impacts now finally starting to leak
through and consumers saying, I don't
know, then where does that leave us? You
know, it's I I think this is a more
perilous moment than than a lot of
forecasters are guessing. What are the
data blind spots that matter mo most for
the Fed or investors or for the average
person where you know we're we're flying
without instruments right now. What do
you think is the most valuable data that
we're not seeing?
Yeah. Look, I I think uh always it's the
jobs data and then for the Fed
secondarily PCE right personal
consumption expenditures and what
inflation is. And look, there are a
thousand PhD economists who work for the
Fed and they've got all kinds of private
data. But the catch is twofold. One is
private data is proprietary and not
everybody's willing to share it. But
number two, a lot of times that private
data is based on the public data that
the government puts out. And so when we
don't have that foundational information
of what's happening, then that renders
the Fed,
okay, soft landing, we had that whole
thing, you know, a number of months ago,
a year ago, whatever. The Fed's finally
going to do it. Let's complete the
analogy here, right? The the Fed had
this economy on final. Tariffs came in
and then the weather went to
right? Right. And when the weather goes
to hell and your instruments aren't
reliable, which is where the Fed is
right now, what can you do? And and my
guess would be, and I don't know, I
haven't spoken to Chair Pal in a very
long time. I've had, you know, Fed
presidents on the program from time to
time. My guess is that they're kind of
hanging on by their fingernails.
You're I think loosely my generation.
And when I talk to you,
I think we're like the same age
actually.
Yeah. Yeah. I think we are. Um let's
just say we're 50, Kai. Um let's say
that.
Let's say that. So a word that I find
people under the age of 50 are not
familiar with and that I think is we may
be on the the precipice of is
stagflation. So I see inflation
uh going up. Core inflation I think hit
3 and a half hit or 37. And meanwhile it
looks as if the jobs market is shaky.
And so this this chocolate or this not
chocolate and peanut butter which is a
good thing but this nitro and glycerin
which is a bad thing of low growth and
inflation stagflation
which is just the worst of all worlds.
Do you share my fears around that? I I
agree with you, but the most recent
indicators for GDP growth are like 3%
plus. The Atlanta Fed does this GDP now
tracker which has it like at 3.8% for
the current quarter, which is really
high. Now, is that sustainable? I'm not
sure, but we're not in stagflation yet.
A lot of the indicators are happening.
Inflation, as you said, the labor market
being really jittery, right? We're in
this low hiring, lowfiring labor market
environment, right? There's not a lot of
churn. Not a lot of people are getting
laid off, but not a lot of people are
getting hired either, which makes it
tougher to find a job now. So, we've got
two out of three, and I think the the
real question is what happens with
economic growth uh in this quarter and
then first quarter of of next year and
where that winds up sticking.
Do you worry, and I'm asked this, I
really don't know the answer to this
question. Is that 3.8 a number juice
because imports are are taken out of GDP
growth and because imports have
dramatically decreased that number is
somewhat artificially inflated if you
will.
Yeah, I think that GDP number is
actually challengeable because if that's
even a word challengeable because of
that exact formulation, right? C plus I
plus G plus net exports, right? And the
and the problem is the tariffs have
pulled all those imports forward now and
the numbers are not skewed, but they're
a little bit what's going on, you know?
Yeah. Let's talk about tariffs and
trade. There's been talk of a potential
bailout for American soybean farmers
who've been completely thrown under the
bus by Trump's tariffs. Um, Hill
Republicans estimate Trump could need to
send as much as 50 billion to farmers
hit by his own tariffs. roughly half the
revenue raised from those tariffs so
far. Can you walk us through the
economics here and what's actually
happening to farmers?
Yeah, they're they've actually gotten
shafted. That's the economics of it.
Look, I we've got a soybean farmer out
in Iowa that we talked to uh not
infrequently and I had her on about two
weeks ago. Uh she has zero orders. She
she's fine sort of cornwise, right?
Because there's lots of other uses. But
the American soybean farmers have had
zero Chinese orders. It used to be the
biggest market, right? And now because
of the president's trade war, the
Chinese are not buying American soybeans
anymore. They're going to Brazil and
other places. So all these soybean
farmers now are looking at a market
catastrophe truly because their largest
market has disappeared because of the
president's policies. So here's what's
happening. We're we have now a heavily
tariffed environment. Let's all remember
that tariffs are taxes on American
consumers and businesses. It's not China
that's paying the tariffs. It's not
Canada that's paying the tariffs.
American consumers and businesses are
paying the tariffs. It is a tax. So all
that money is going into the Treasury
without congressional authorization. By
the way, it is taxation almost literally
without representation. So that money is
now in the Treasury. The president is
going to and in ordinary times of which
we are not in, the president would need
congressional authorization to get these
bailouts to the farmers. The president's
going to take some of that tariff money
and redirect it to farmers so that we
don't have that American farming
catastrophe. It is a crisis completely
induced by the president. The pain being
borne by American farmers who are now
being subsidized by the taxes that are
the president's tariffs. It's it's the
most bizarre circular logic you're ever
going to find.
And my sense is I mean this is sort of
starting a fire and then charging
taxpayers for the cost to put it out,
right? It it's just a circular doesn't
make any sense. Do these did these
farmers ever have viable businesses? Was
I mean have we not been propping up
these farmers? And also on the back end,
my sense is this business is not coming
back. Even if we were to restore or do
away with the tariffs, China has
established secure supply routes or
sourcing from Argentina and Brazil as
you referenced that this the bottom line
is the American soybean farmer is is
going to be a thing of the past.
Yeah. So look, American farm policy for
the past 80 years is a conversation for
a whole different podcast and I'm not
well versed enough. But I can tell you
those markets are, as you say, never
ever coming back and and my corn and
soybean farmer in Iowa knows it. I
talked to a corn farmer in South Dakota.
He knows it. So now they're they're
looking for these markets. I mean, you
know, April Ems is a woman I've been
talking to for for honest to God, it's
been 10 years. She's been on this land
since she was a little girl. And now
what's she going to do with it? You
know, and American farming is is
challenging in the very best of times,
right? It's it's brutal and it's hard
and it's you are at the mercy of so many
elements. And now they're at the mercy
of the president of the United States.
Trump announced new tariffs on movies,
furniture, and other imported goods. How
far do you think he has to go before he
totally alienates his base here?
So, you forgot trucks, by the way. He
came out like yesterday, medium heavy
trucks now, 25%. Um, this is the
question I've been asking almost since
the beginning and and it's twofold. One
is what's it going to take to make
people realize what is happening, right?
And and the correlary of that is for our
leaders and for our elites in academia,
law, business, take your pick. How long
will it take them to realize they are on
the wrong side of history? Um because
this
look, we're we're less than a year in um
and one imagines that it will end
because it has to. The question is
what's the forcing function? What's it
going to take for people to understand
what is happening here? And this is a
much larger conversation than just the
economy, right? But I I bring it up
because the institutions of this
economy, all of them depend on the
institutions of this democracy. Rule of
law, transparency, fair regulation, the
right of recourse when wronged, all of
those things. And if people don't
understand that that's what's under
threat,
how do they expect the economy to
survive? Right? There was there was a
statistic out this morning. foreignborn
students are it's just cratered this
fall because of the president's
immigration policies and for uh his
conversations and and well conversations
is putting it very m charitably what
he's doing to higher education you know
immigrants to this country look
immigration is a labor market problem
but it's also a source of innovation and
dynamism and intellectual vigor that we
are now not getting because the
institutions of this democracy are under
fire.
And
I don't know about you, I've actually
been struck at how
resilient the economy has been. I would
have thought if someone had laid out
these policies, I would have said, "Wow,
that recession here we come." And it
appears that I must think of that
analogy that, you know, twothirds of an
of a of a iceberg's mass is below the
water. And it what I I mean one of two
things is happening. Either we're wrong
about the president's policies and
they're not you know there's some merit
to them or two the reality is that the
American economy is this juggernaut that
quite frankly it's like don't bother me
I'm just going to continue to grind on.
And have you been surprised at how
resilient the American economy has been?
I am completely surprised. Uh but
there's there's a couple of warning
signs. Right. First of all, I'm obliged
to say here, and as you know, the stock
market is not the economy. And the stock
market is not being driven by economic
fundamentals right now. It's being
driven by AI spending to the tune of
hundreds of billions of dollars. And
whether or not that's sustainable is, I
think, very much up in the air. You're
you're far more versed in that than I
am. Uh the American economy is a 29.9ish
trillion dollar beast. And so the tariff
impact so far has been relatively small.
It's the uncertainty, I think, that's
actually been driving the small
businesses saying, "I don't know if we
can do this. We're going to have to
raise prices." And then that trickles
down to the consumers. But I think
there's a there's another thing that's
that's happening here. And and you know,
the president and his cabinet officials
will tell you the president's um they
give three excuses for the tariffs,
right? One is to revitalize American
manufacturing, one is to generate
revenue, and the other one is to protect
American jobs. Um, the problem is that
you can't do all three of those things
at the same time because if you
revitalize American manufacturing, then
we're going to start importing less and
you're going to have less revenue. We
haven't got the workforce that wants to
do a lot of the jobs the president is
trying to protect. He announced
furniture tariffs like 10 days, two
weeks ago. I was talking to a furniture
guy a week ago in North Carolina, which
used to be the hub of American furniture
manufacturing, and he said, "I there are
not 5,000 woodworkers that I can hire to
make my high-end furniture. They just
don't exist in this country anymore."
And so the president is trying, and this
is not my original thought by any means,
the president is trying to take us back
to an economy of the ' 50s, '60s, and
70s. And it's the world isn't that
anymore. It's just not.
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We're back with more from Kai Rudolph.
I'd love to get your thoughts on the
recent uh Secretary of War summit. You
spent eight years in the Navy and I'd
love to get your reaction to Secretary
Hegsth's speech to roughly I think it
was about 800 admirals and generals at
Quantico where he told them essentially
to I saw it as embrace MAGA or quit. Uh
I what what were your reactions when you
saw that speech? I um uh it was
disgraceful. It was laughable and it was
an embarrassment to the armed forces of
the United States. and and people need
to understand, you know, I've been in
journalism now for 25ish years, but but
the most important thing to know about
me is that I'm a veteran and and how
that shapes
um how I see the world. Um
uh look, Secretary Hath is unqualified.
Full stop. I am as qualified as he is to
be the Secretary of Defense, and I'm not
I'm not qualified. Right. Um uh I I was
heartened in that speech to see all
those flag and general officers sitting
on their hands um and doing exactly what
one would expect of them. Uh I am I I
feel badly for them because they're
going to have to go back to the troops
and and explain
what the hell happened and what the
marching instructions are. and they're
going to have to do it in a way that
maintains unit cohesion and the
viability of the force and and that's
going to be really challenging uh
because of the way the secretary and
also the president treat the military as
if it's here's the quote they are his
generals which of course they are not. I
think honestly a more troubling speech
was the thing that the president did
this past weekend down in in Norfolk to
uh to celebrate the Navy's 250th
anniversary.
And he had behind him uh enlisted and a
couple of officer members of the Navy
and he walked out and he said, "Hey,
this is a rally." I mean, this is
literally what he said. He said, "Ah,
it's a rally. Who are we kidding?" And
the crowd behind him, all active duty
military, went crazy. They were
applauding, jumping up, down, just
cheering them on, all of this. And that
to me is ju it's I don't understand how
the commanding officers of these sailors
let that happen. It if professionalism
in the service means anything to you, it
means that you are a political and that
you, as the flag and general officers
did at that speech in Quantico, you sit
on your hands. Now, of course, that's
not why those guys were chosen. And
there is some measure of the American
military, probably sizable, that is in
favor of the president. But that ain't
it. That can't be it. And it's and it's
deeply deeply damaging.
Talk a little bit about your service.
What what was the motivation for joining
the Navy? And I assume you were in it
longer than you you were commissioned or
obligated to. You're in for eight years.
Give give us some color around your
service.
I um so when I went to college, I
thought I was going to be a lawyer. Uh,
and I I took all those, you know,
pre-law courses and this and that. And
then when I was a a freshman, I had a
very good friend of mine who was a um I
was a sophomore. She was a senior. She
was five kappa, you know, maxed out her
elsats, all this jazz. Applied to all
the top law schools and got into none of
them. Um, and I said, "Well, you know,
screw this. I don't I don't need to go
to law school." So, I farted around for
a couple of years. And then and then um
when I was a senior, a guy who had been
a fraternity brother of mine a year
ahead of me came back uh on leave from
Navy flight school. Um and that uh it
just it it appealed to me. It's um my
father served my father got his
citizenship by serving back in the 50s.
So I took the entrance exams. I went
down to officer candidate school in
Pensacola. Um, got my wings and then
went to the fleet. I flew E2C Hawkeyes
off the USS Theater Roosevelt for three
years. I did.
So, you you were a pilot.
Yeah, I flew.
I did not know that. I I would have
thought you were too tall to be a pilot.
No, you know, that's so interesting.
That's the second time in a couple of
days somebody has said that. No, when I
was uh in the recruiting station, you
had to do all kinds of anthropometric
measurements. They sit you in this seat
and they measure your, you know, your
tibia length and your upper body and all
this jazz and and I fit. So, so you
know,
and what was the aircraft you flew?
I flew E2C Hawkeyes, which uh they're
now E2Ds. They've been upgraded, but
they're large turborop aircraft,
carrierbased that have the big radom on
top. So, the uh the mission is command
control and and airspace battle space
management. Um, so I did that for three
and a half years. rolled out of my fleet
squadron on August the 1st, 1990, which
if August the 2nd, 1990 rings a bell,
that's when um Saddam Hussein went into
Kuwait. So, I rolled out of my fleet
squadron right before they got uh
alerted to go to the Gulf. I I wound up
in the Pentagon and the Joint Chiefs of
Staff for um I guess the rest of my
service. I was like two and a half more
years, right? Flight training was two.
Yeah. So, I was in eight years soup to
nuts the last couple years uh on staff
duty at the Pentagon. Um, look, it it um
it it defines me to this day. It it is a
sense of obligation and gratitude for
what the military and this nation has
given me. Um, and I um and that's why
that's why honestly that's why what's
going on now is just so just disturbing
and horrible.
Do you think we'd benefit from mandatory
national service?
Oh, yeah. I've I've advocated for that
forever. I think we would be a different
country. We don't know each other
anymore,
right? We don't and and look, it's a
generational thing. And and I I try to I
try to, you know, even my own kids, I
try to get them to understand this. And
and you know, my service, I imagine
they're proud of it, but I don't think
it resonates with them in a this is what
I want to do kind of thing, you know.
And do you think that type of national
service um you know should would just be
the military or different options around
senior care?
No, look there is there are zillion ways
to serve. Teach for America,
Americanore, you know, what have you,
right? In fact, we don't have the
capacity to do all to accept all the
national service volunteers that we
have. Our programs are not big enough.
We have more volunteers than we can
take. Right? It's setting aside the
military. Let's let's not make it a
draft, right? Because that just
complicates the issue in a zillion
different ways. But if you're just
looking at national service, we don't
have the infrastructure to support all
the volunteers who want to do something
for this country. So obviously, we would
have to spend money and Congress would
have to appropriate and we'd have to get
all the programs up and running. But I
believe it's a worthwhile national goal
because as I said I there's the the the
gap in our knowledge of each other is
enormous
and and that changes who we are as a
society. And look I I don't think you
have to look any farther than the
current political environment to see
that
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We're back with more from Ky Rdall.
Just to pivot back to the um economy
right now, it feels like we have a new
era or we're in a new era of financial
markets where the government is
literally taking equity stakes from
private companies. The Trump
administration now holds positions in
Intel, MP Materials, lithium Americas,
Trilogy Metals, and even a new golden
share in US Steel. What do you make of
this kind of state capitalism, Kai? It's
state capitalism. I don't understand how
the party of free markets and smaller
government suddenly became under Donald
Trump the party of state capitalism. And
we all know that had Biden or Obama done
it,
Washington would have exploded. It would
have just been he would have been
impeached like like 3 days ago. Um it it
is in in my opinion uh not a healthy
thing for corporate America. Um I'm not
sure it's a healthy thing for the
general economy. Um, and I know it's not
a healthy thing for the government of
the United States to be so heavily
vested in state capitalism. It just it's
Look, there are a zillion problems with
American capitalism. Two zillion
problems.
But the government taking actual equity
stakes or taking profits from Nvidia for
sales of certain chips to China,
I how does that help or fix anything?
I don't understand it. And it's and it's
I I don't Look, this goes to a much
larger conversation about about what has
happened to our our political elites who
see these things happening. Republicans
specifically who have the power, all the
power in Washington. Um and are uh in
private saying one thing and then in
public saying, "I'm sorry, I didn't see
the tweet." You know, um
I I don't know. So it feels as if we
have two uh and I like what you said
before and I agree that the stock market
is not the economy but within the stock
market you have 10 companies responsible
for 70% of the gains. There's I think
it's a misnomer to say the S&P 500. I
feel like there's the S&P 490 and the
S&P 10. And you're talking about just
two totally different universes.
The S&P 10 is largely driven on, you
know, AI or optimism and expectations
around AI right now. as someone covers
these stories every day. What does your
gut tell you about where we are with not
only with AI, but it's it's the
expectations in the runup in the in
these stocks? My disclaimer here is that
uh I'm not a financial analyst. I'm not
a market specialist. I'm a guy who's
been covering the general economy for 25
years. I don't actually control any of
my own investments. my wife uh because
number one she's better at it and number
two she's more interested in it is in
charge of of all of our money um and the
other reason is because I should not
have a platform that I have and be
talking about these companies with a
stake in them. So just just to get that
on the table um look that which cannot
go up forever will not and the rate at
which AI spending has been exploding
seems to me to be unsustainable. The
other catch, of course, is that all of
these data centers and all of these
tools that are being built out aren't
actually going to employ a whole lot of
people. And in point of fact, what AI is
going to do is make a whole lot of jobs
in this economy not necessary anymore.
And that I think is the is the economic
flip side of this explosion. At some
point, the lack of returns in real
economy terms
from this AI investment is going to land
and that I think is going to be a real
challenge because the economy has been
built now on the S&P 10.
We've been writing or I've been thinking
a lot about how AI is going to impact
Hollywood and the creative community in
Southern California. And it just it
feels as if I went to
um I my kids are a little bit younger
than yours, Kai. I had so I have to go
to I have to endure superhero films. And
I went to see the Fantastic Four. And
the thing that just blew me away was the
credits were 7 minutes long. And I did
some research. 3,400 people worked on
this film, which is more people than
worked at Red Work at Reddit or Lyft.
And I all I could see was uh the Greek
glands of Sam Alman going, "Oh my god,
wait until I la." Have you guys done any
stories or do you have any observations
around um there's we make this general
assumption and I think it's probably
correct that there's going to be some
labor force destruction at the hands of
AI. Have you done any stories or do you
have any thoughts specifically around AI
as it relates to kind of the creative
community in Hollywood? Yeah, let's
preface this by saying even before AI
really hit the Hollywood community,
movie making in Southern California was
really challenged, right? Other places
are offering tax incentives, Georgia,
right? So, so that's really part of part
of the problem. Um,
so we do have folks who who do AI
stories. the the the thing about AI that
that gets me every time is that the hype
around AI coming from Sam Alman and the
like uh is what's driving all the hype
around AI, right? Alman is going out
there saying we can we're going to
create this I mean this this new video
platform that they have Sora whatever
the hell it is. I mean what what are we
even doing that we are taking a video
platform and making it produce or
letting people produce just completely
fantastical videos that we are now going
to just watch like we watch Instagram
and actual people. So the destruction of
the creative class I think is is very
real. And then and then the extension of
course is you know creativity is what
makes us people and consuming the arts
cinema, movies, TV, actual art is what
makes us humanity. And if that becomes
machine driven
then where do we go?
Speaking of which, or the the media
community, obviously you're you're a key
figure in in the media and in the news
media.
Curious,
you're giving me too much credit, but
thank you.
Uh well, it's funny. I sort of I I
you're little I think the Wall Street
Journal, The Economist, and Kai Rzdoll
were some of my early like prompts
around being interested in business. the
what I'm cur any thoughts on um the
Ellison's acquiring free press and Barry
Weiss being appointed editor-inchief of
uh of CBS.
So, look, there's there's a whole rant
to be had on the media and what it means
in this moment. Consolidation of media
power is in and of itself challenging to
a democracy. Right? look at Jeff Bezos
and his personal ownership of the
Washington Post and what it has meant
for that once great paper. Um, the idea
that Ellison now controls a major movie
studio and one of the big three
broadcast networks, even though
broadcast television is in secular
decline and he's appointed Barry White,
Barry Weiss, excuse me, uh, an opinion
journalist as it is editor-inchief. I
mean, I can't imagine what it's like
actually inside CBS News right now. I I
imagine, you know, she gave this speech
this morning. I don't know when you guys
are going to drop this pod, but she gave
this speech this morning introducing
herself to the CBS new staff, and I I
have to imagine eyes were rolling all
over the place. Um this because this is
such a perilous moment for this
democracy.
The importance of accurate factbased not
afraid to use actual words for what's
happening journalism is critical
and and you see the New York Times
slowly turning the corner from false
claims to lies. Just for instance, a
credulous media will be the death of
this republic. It really will because
unless we're actually willing to say
what is happening, and as a federal
judge said the other day, the
president's position is untethered from
the facts, speaking about Portland,
uh unless we're willing to say that
in our journalism,
we are we are failing this democracy.
So, uh, just a couple thesis or I'll put
forward a couple thesis and you respond
to them. I think a lot of people see the
free press as
being a necessary counterweight to what
has become an increasingly progressive
media complexion that sometimes
uh has its own its own issues with the
quote unquote the truth because the
truth sometimes does not I don't know
fit into a progressive orthodoxy. Any
you know any thoughts on that? So, look,
I I think uh the the mainstream media,
for lack of a better phrase, uh is
generally progressive. Uh but I think it
is also blindered and hindered by its
centuries of journalistic invention,
which has led it now not to call uh a
lie a lie. We're we're slowly making
that turn. And look, this applies to
marketplace as well. But it is it is
incumbent upon us to broaden our
horizons at a time when sorry, that's a
stupid phrase. Broaden your horizons is
a is a trit phrase. It is incumbent upon
us to actually say to our listeners, our
viewers, and our readers what is what is
what is factually happening as opposed
to some euphemism. to the point of the
free press in particular. Right. Look,
free press and and conser conser small C
conservative traditional conservative
media is fine, but when you have
propaganda outlets that are operating
under a tenant of, oh, we're just doing
journalism from a conservative
perspective, that's not what is
happening, right? You you are not
actually doing journalism. You are
carrying water for an element of the
body politic
that is seeking to deceive and to
manipulate
the people of this economy and this
country.
Would you describe CNN and the New York
Times as being propaganda outlets?
Uh I I would No, they're not. They're
not propaganda outlets. That said, I've
got problems with with some of the
things both of them do, as I'm sure they
have problems with some of the things I
do. Right. that's that's it's not, you
know, tit for tat here. Um, but when you
have the reach of CNN and when you have
the reach of public radio and when you
have the reach of the New York Times,
you do nobody any service by both sides,
by using euphemisms, by not saying what
is actually happening.
you know, we've we've had this
conversation inside marketplace and I've
had it with the corporate bosses.
And I sometimes I win and sometimes I
lose. Um but but if I'm not telling
people what is happening, then I'm I
it's malpractice.
I've been struck by how much attention
the acquisition of Free Press has
received. $150 million acquisition.
Well, $150 million, right? That'll get
you. Well, but there's there was an $80
billion merger among railroad companies.
There's been five five acquisitions of
of 8 billion or more in the last week,
and no one really cares. Um, I I find
that and maybe for good reason, the
media is sort of obsessed with itself,
but I guess my question is the
following. Does CBS even matter anymore?
Does it matter who's running it? I mean,
I don't know anyone that watches CBS. It
feels I look at CBS, NBC, and ABC and I
feel like it's 21 minutes of the exact
same damn thing and then a cute story
about a bear that a woman's feeding
hamburger helper to every night. It just
Do the Are these guys are they relevant
anymore?
Yeah, I think that's a really good point
and it's tough to argue. I I will only
argue for what it symbolizes, right? uh
CBS, the Tiffany network, the network of
Walter Kankite and Edward Ar Muro, and
maybe I'm I'm way naval gazing on
journalism history, but there was a
point where those names and more
importantly what they stood for, right?
Muro gives the, you know, television
just tubes in a box unless we do it
right. um what they stood for and I
think that's what is now being being
sacrificed
as opinion journalism goes mainstream.
You know, Barry Weiss won't be able to
decide, you know, how many cameras to
send on a story and she probably won't
be involved in foreign desk assignments,
but she because David Ellison said so
will be able to influence what it is
that CBS News does. And what she does is
opinion journalism for which there is a
place. Um but but at that scale and
and in that vessel of what CBS News used
to be once was um is I don't I don't I I
think that's the the my mental
disconnect on that one.
How are you guys
um evaluate you're presenting? You're a
key figure in
um in public media or the public media
program marketplace.
How are you guys adapting? Like what's
working, what isn't? if you as you try
to thread the needle between economic
viability
and and thoughtful fact check
journalism, which by the way is I find
it's just a shitty business and
economically really challenged. How what
do you what do you think you guys are
doing well and not well and how are you
adapting to this new environment of
media while trying to stay true to the
roots of journalism which sometimes
quite frankly is just not economically
viable?
Yeah. Look, so we inside marketplace uh
and inside the corporate structure that
that owns marketplace um we are we are
uh really challenged in how we go from a
legacy media outlet, right, where
marketplace used to be appointment
listening. It was drive time. It was
people making their dinner and and it
used to be on the radio. And now, right,
that's all gone since the pandemic.
Ain't nobody driving anymore, right? And
podcasts are up and and all of that
stuff. So our challenge now is to meet
people where they are and to develop
this multi-channel strategy where we're
going to do video, we're going to do on
demand, we're going to do broadcast
media because oh by the way broad for
marketplace
broadcast is where the money is. So the
challenge now for for me and if my
corporate bosses hear this, well, we'll
see what happens. But the challenge now
for me is and me and and meaning the
larger marketplace enterprise is to
convince our parent company that
investment in marketplace as we make
this transition for which we are late by
the way to a multi-channel uh operation
will pay returns that will make up for
the loss of broadcast revenue. Right?
our broadcast revenue is up here. Our on
demand revenue is down here. And we
clearly need to change that. We need to
stabilize it and equalize it or it needs
to go like this. And those are the
conversations we're having, right? I
mean, I'm I'm on a trip to corporate HQ
now to talk about philanthropy and
development and donations and and all of
those things because the public media
news model, set aside for a second the
recision and the withdrawing of funding
for the CPB. Public media right now is
in a really challenged space as we make
this transition to multi-channel on
demand and video from a legacy broadcast
outlet. Kai, where do you get your what
are your go-tos for information? I'm
always asked this question and I never
have a good response because I think I'm
a little bit embarrassed about how I
have transitioned from the New York
Times, The Economist, the Wall Street
Journal to quite frankly social media.
I'm now I have great people on TikTok
and on reals economists and people I
think are really really smart that no
one's ever heard of that inform my
viewpoint before you take to the radio
which is you're obviously going to read
the facts but you're also going to have
a spin on you know it's I won't even
call a spin you're going to have
thoughtful color on stuff where do you
find color on the economy who are your
trusted resources
here here's so I do in essence I have
done and my my journey has been the
exact same Right. Going from the times
and the economist and the journal and
all those to social media. The the thing
I spend most of my time on honestly in
news gathering is going uh finding a
thing on social media and digging down
on that. Finding a nugget, finding a
person, right? I mean there are so many
really interesting people on social
media. Social media is a hell hole in a
whole lot of ways. But you find people
there and then you follow them and then
you read their writing and then you read
their substacks and that's how you
gather and you synthesize and then by
the time marketplace goes on the air
hopefully I have a coherent view on what
is happening that day not just from the
times in the journal but from people who
have look and you got to you got to test
their credibility and and all of those
things. But once you've done that and
you realize that they're the go-tos,
then you you use them and you synthesize
their information into the way you
present whatever we have chosen as our
lead story or whatever the feature story
is.
And just as we wrap up here, you're kind
of rounding third in terms of your
career. Have you thought about
Thanks, man. Well, you're you've you
you're an iconic whether you like it or
not. You're sort of an iconic figure
that kind of marks marks the the medium
or at least the approach to the medium.
What professionally,
well, I'll say and personally, what I've
been thinking and there's a lot of this
is projection because I'm just so
freaked out about being 60. I
can't stop thinking about the fact that
it's, you know, we're we're not on the
back nine. We're on the 18th hole is the
way I see it. And
like what have you what have you thought
about professionally? What boxes are
left for you to check? And also if
you're comfortable like personally I
think you're you're you guys are now
empty nesters, right?
Yeah. So our youngest child, our
daughter, we just dropped our daughter
off at school two weeks ago.
Oh, congrats. I would love for you let's
start there. What was that like?
Uh so the the the good part is it's
going really well so far. So we dropped
off from school. We took a a long slow
drive down the California coast back to
LA. Uh we had three or four days to just
sort of decompress, you know. Um she she
was ready to go, you know. She was like,
"Okay, see you later." Right. And and my
wife and I were like, "Oh, really? Okay,
bye." And um
uh and and then we got back home and we
kind of slid right in. Um the house is
quieter. um we we are not buying as much
food which makes total sense but after
so you know we've been parenting kids
for 27 years our refrigerator has been
stocked I have three boys who are you
know just ginormous eaters so the amount
of food in the fridge is just shockingly
small um but but the mental change to
the two of us is going really well I
think it's um we are rediscovering
um how to be a couple again with kids
bopping in and out every now and then.
On the professional front,
um,
as as I like to say to the kids when
they were little, you know, dad, what do
you do and do you know this and are you
a celebrity and all that, I'd be like,
you know what, I'm a pretty big fish in
a very small public media pond. Um,
so the next chapter now, I figure I've
got one left, maybe two if I play my
cards right, is increasingly on my mind.
Uh, where do I go from here? I am
indelibly associated with Marketplace
and the Marketplace brand, which to be
clear is a privilege and an honor,
right? I'm I'm super proud of the work
I've done at this program for for 20
years, 25 in the shop. Um, now, where do
I go? What do I do? And and not to, you
know, I don't need to blow smoke up your
ass, but I'm I'm always impressed when I
listen to you um talk about your career
path about how you bet on yourself. And
that's my challenge now is to bet on
myself and figure out where I'm going to
go.
Kyus Doll is the host and senior editor
of the public media program Marketplace,
the nation's most listened to show on
business and the economy. Uh so anyways,
brother, thanks very much and keep on
keeping on.
Thank you. Good to talk to you.
[Music]
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video discusses the current state of financial markets, the rise of state capitalism under the Trump administration, and the potential economic implications of government shutdowns. It delves into concerns about inflation, consumer spending patterns, and the fragility of an economy increasingly reliant on a small segment of high-income earners. The conversation also touches upon the impact of tariffs on American farmers, particularly soybean farmers, and the broader economic and political consequences of trade wars. Additionally, the video explores the role of AI in the economy, its potential to disrupt the job market, and its impact on creative industries. Finally, it addresses the challenges facing journalism in the current media landscape, the importance of fact-based reporting, and the personal and professional reflections of the host.
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