So, the Trump administration and the

United States military action capturing

Venezuela's Nicholas Maduro is

triggering a complete tidal wave of

domino effects around the world as

countries question what everything means

right now, but also in some particular

cases whether they might be next and

know so more than Cuba. Indeed, the

island that has long been a thorn in the

side of the world's greatest military

and economic power is showing signs of

complete collapse. food shortages,

18-hour blackouts, a complete decimation

of the once admired resilient

healthcare. Millions are simply leaving.

And now this external shock, inflection

point by the United States and the Trump

idea of a Monroe doctrine is pushing the

country's system over the edge. No

hurricanes, no failed reforms, just the

United States pressure against Venezuela

and the critical lifeline of oil that

kept Cuba functioning for more than two

decades. You see, because when

Venezuela's oil stops flowing, Cuba

doesn't just suffer, reaches a point of

no turn, and something that probably the

Trump administration would like nothing

more, especially Marco Rubio. So, in

this video, I wanted to explain how what

has happened in Venezuela, including the

buildup to Operation Absolute Resolve is

impacting Cuba, how Havana has tied its

survival so much to previously Hugo

Chavez, but then Nicholas Maduro's

regime, and why the next phase of this

crisis could reshape the political

future of both countries, but also the

Caribbean and of course the United

States broader strategic vision. Let's

get into it. This is the Global Gambit.

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Before getting started, I always want to

know what you guys think. So, do let me

know in the comments below how you feel

about what we're going to cover in this

video, particularly the fallout of

Venezuela and its implications for many

countries, including some that could be

next. Now, prior to the military buildup

and pressure from the Trump

administration on Venezuela in late

2025, let alone Operation Absolute

Resolve itself, you'd be fair in

assuming that Cuba's crisis was largely

internal, especially due to the US

embargo that has existed for 70 plus

years. All of this creating a rigid

economic system, decades of

mismanagement, a state that can no

longer feed, power, or employ its

population. And all of that is true to

an extent. But Cuba's survival has also

depended on other factors, especially

something external. Cheap subsidized oil

from Venezuela. The oil that kept the

lights on, the fuel going, and the

transportation going. It sustained what

little private economic activity still

existed. But suddenly that supply has

largely been eradicated. The US's

external pressure on Venezuela's oil,

even before the operation Friday night,

seizing tankers, targeting specific

supply networks, and signaling that

enforcement would always be aggressive,

meant that Havana knew something might

be coming, but not quite in the way that

it did and at the rate that it did. Now,

it is simply scrambling. But before

going further into current implications,

let's have an understanding of why this

bilateral relationship between Cuba and

Venezuela exists as it does. These two

countries have been bound together since

1999 when Hugo Chavis came to power in

Venezuela. Chavis framed the

relationship as revolutionary

solidarity. In reality though, it was

more transactional. Venezuela shipped

roughly 100,000 barrels of oil per day

to Cuba at heavily subsidized prices. In

return, Cuba sent some of their

specialist trained doctors, sports

trainers, and most importantly though,

security and intelligence advisers,

those that had done the remarkable job

of sidest stepping and counteracting the

attempts by the United States to

overthrow. Cuban intelligence embedded

itself deep inside Venezuela's state and

military apparatus, helping Chavez and

later Maduro identify disscent, prevent

coup, and ideally neutralize rivals.

Over time, Venezuela's oil production

collapsed under its own mismanagement

and corruption. Shipments to Cuba

suddenly fell to around 30 barrels per

day. Even reduced that oil, though still

mattered enormously, to Havana. speed to

today and Venezuela crude covers roughly

40% 40% of Cuba's imported oil vital for

the power plants the transport and the

fragile private sector so removing all

that supply or remnants of it and Cuba

has no immediate substitute at all so

suddenly bringing the United States and

the developments in the past 2 to three

days and while the United States has not

made any formal moves on Cuba it is

without question that something is going

to happen, arguably purely because of

Marco Rubio's own self-interests and

serious intent given his relationship to

Cuba. But in practice, it is always

about trying to undermine your enemy or

adversary psychologically. That seems to

be what the Trump administration is

trying to do before anything kinetic

happens. Prior to the operation,

Washington had been targeting

Venezuela's tankers, targeting these key

shipping networks used to evade

sanctions and expanded its naval

presence in the southern Caribbean

entirely around southern Cuba. It has

increased its enforcement against

vessels linked to any sanctioned

entities, including those going to Iran.

As I covered in another video, one

tanker, for example, was already seized

carrying nearly 2 million barrels of

oil. Crucially, around 70% of

Venezuela's crude exports rely on these

shadowy shipping networks, which the

Cubans themselves would help facilitate.

There, the message is unmistakable that

exporting oil under sanctions is only

becoming more risky, slower, and more

expensive. Anything worse for Cuba. And

so then, when you consider Operation

Absolute Resolve, the Trump

administration has demonstrated

something far more consequential than

sanctions alone. this willingness to use

the direct overwhelming force to remove

hostile regimes or entities of any form

in the Western Hemisphere. It's not just

about symbolic pressure on Cuba anymore

or economic sanctions. It's about rapid

unilateral and unapologetic

military coercion. For Venezuela, that

of course resulted in the go going of

Maduro and for Cuba. Therefore, it

threatens not just the regime but the

entire country's sort of functionality,

its survival. And so as the Venezuelan

oil shipment stopped, the Cuban economic

collapse seems almost inevitable to

some. Now, any such collapse would hit a

society already in freefall. Cuba has

been experiencing its worst economic

crisis since the early 1990s and

arguably something even more severe. The

economy has contracted roughly 15% since

2018. Communulative inflation has been

around 450%

since 2018. The Cuban pesos trades at

around 450 to the dollar on the black

market. That is compared with 30 just a

few years ago when the improvement of

relations under Obama occurred from

$450.

Nearly 90% of the Cuban population lives

in extreme poverty. That means less than

$1.25 a day. And around 70% just miss

regular meals. Blackouts can last 18

hours a day. Hospitals like medicine,

water access is intermittent. Garbage

piles up in the streets. Things like

communicable diseases, denube, and

others are spreading. And school

attendance is increasingly irregular, if

non-existent completely. For example,

since 2020, more than 2.7 Cubans,

roughly a quarter of the population,

have just left. Now, given that reality,

Cuba's recent behavior makes a lot of

sense. Havana has tried everything it

could to keep Nicholas Madura in power.

Cuban intelligence remained possibly

still remains deeply embedded inside

Venezuela trying to support what remains

of the Madura government. Former

officials to start describe Cuban

counter intelligence as omnipresent

monitoring military officers, senior

officials, even ministers. Madura

himself has been surrounded by the

trusted Cuban vetted personnel with

tight controls and communications and

access. Before that was the Delta Force

extracted him. All because for Havana

Maduro survival was not ideological. It

was existential. Lose Maduro and you

lose oil leverage time. That is why Cuba

will not simply fade quietly into the

background as the fallout from Trump's

Venezuelan operation only intensifies.

Indeed, at the time of recording this

video, it's become apparent that over 30

Cubans were killed in the operation.

Most of them people assume to be part

security forces or those that were

working intelligence associated with the

government. That's why it took slightly

longer and there has been a slightly

higher casualty rate than was expected

purely because the Cumans were

instrumental in ensuring Maduro's

protection. But also one wonders why the

Cubans for all their louding around

their capacity for intelligence didn't

see this coming from the Americans. Now

to frame this differently when it comes

to Cuba it can be tempting and possibly

politically convenient to put all the

blame on the US for Cuba's hardships.

Now that is not to say that what the

Trump administration has done over

Venezuela sets an incredibly dangerous

precedent and how it will encourage

other nation states to behave. The point

is the current situation in Cuba is as

much structurally and self-inflicted as

it is a result of America's actions over

Venezuela. You see, the revolution

expropriated wealth. The Cuban state

crushed independent enterprise and the

economy became so dependent first on the

Soviet Union, but then of course

Venezuela. For example, when global oil

prices collapsed in 2014, Venezuelan

support began to fade. Cuba's decline

accelerated, only slightly alleviated by

improvements with the United States

relations after Obama opened them up in

2015. The current pressure campaign and

subsequent actions in Venezuela by the

US therefore did not purely create this

crisis. It just simply exposed it.

Pressure or actions militarily are not

cost-free. And this is where the

Venezuelan operation does matter. In the

aftermath of absolute resolve, US

officials have begun speaking much more

openly about this idea of complete

regional reshape. Marco Rubio has

described the Cuban government as a huge

problem when asked directly whether

Havana could be next. That remark was of

course not offhand and its deliberate

signaling perhaps even trolling by the

Trump administration. It tells us

Washington no longer sees Cuba as a

frozen relic to be managed, but as an

unresolved strategic liability, even

closer to home, and one that props up

adversal regimes, hosts hostile

intelligence activity, and well, yeah,

it's only 90 mi from Florida. That's the

uncomfortable reality. Moving, removing

authoritarian leaders is often not the

hardest part. It's the morning after. In

Venezuela, there is at least an

organized opposition or so they say with

electoral legitimacy and enormous

natural resource wealth which depending

upon how the political establishment

goes, you may well see improve. But even

then, any transition will require

international financial support to

stabilize the economy and meet

humanitarian needs. Cuba is a whole

different kettle of fish. There is no

living memory of democracy. Civil

society was dismantled. Institutions

barely function. The economy produces

almost no hard currency. This regime

survives not because it governs

effectively, but because it controls

security, suppresses descent, and relies

on these external lifelines that no

longer exist. What has changed after

Operation Absolute Resolve is not just

Venezuela's position. It's Washington's

posture. Senior officials are talking

about the ability to administer

Venezuela. But is that the case in Cuba

or would it become almost like a

situation with Puerto Rico where the

United States has to take care of a

situation which is increasingly

unsustainable? Speaking of Mara Lago,

Trump has described Cuba as a very bad

failing nation and said it was something

the administration would end up talking

about or enacting of it. He's not framed

the issue on ideological terms, but in

humanitarian and political ones, helping

the Cuban people and those who were

forced into exile, but given what his

priorities are in Venezuela, that does

fall on death is of course Havana. This

triggers historical memory. The United

States occupied the island twice in the

20th century. And after Fidel Castro's

revolution, Washington backed multiple

attempts to overthrow the regime. Of

course, the most infamous bear of pigs

that failed. And that history matters

because what happened in Venezuela has

revived something the Cuban leadership

hoped was gone for good. The sense that

regime change in the Caribbean is no

longer possible. The response from

Havana reflects that fear bluntly.

President Muel Diaz Canel has denounced

the US operation in Venezuela as

unacceptable, vulgar, and barbarian

kidnapping, calling it a state of

terrorism. The language is absolutely to

them proportionate to the actions and

opinions are never going to be uniform.

It's pretty clear there is a lot of

ambiguity about how Venezuelans feel a

difference between the diaspora and

those who necessarily live in Venezuela

itself. So that will likely be the case

with Cubans. Cuba could be next, not

because Washington wants another

military operation, but because the

regime is economically exhausted,

strategically exposed, and losing any

external support that has kept it alive,

forcing the United States to act because

the immigration, the refugee flows will

mean the United States is on the

receiving end of something it didn't

want. But then it gets stuck. It gets

bogged down in a country that doesn't

have any remnants of in of institutional

framework of infrastructure and

therefore it becomes a Caribbean version

of a nation building exercise a quagmire

that could be Trump's biggest mistake.

Is there a plan for the day after, which

is something they didn't consider in the

cases of Afghanistan or Iraq? In the

Caribbean right now, history is

accelerating and the cost of getting

this wrong will be measured on Trump's

decision-m, not purely his rhetoric. But

that's it from me everyone. Let me know

in the comments below what you think

about this particular angle. A lot of

emphasis on who is next. Is it going to

be Greenland? Is it going to be Cuba? Is

it going to be Iran? None of them are

exactly the same. But if anything is

going to look most sort of similar in

terms of a military kinetic form of

action, Cuba does seem to be the most

likely and also the most vulnerable and

also the one that will potentially be

the biggest risk for America. Subscribe

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further. We'll see you all next time.

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