Tonight, one company can add or erase

about $250 billion in market value in an

instant.

That company is Nvidia. And Wall Street

is going to determine the upswing or the

loss. And they're basically telling

Nvidia, "Show me $39 billion in profit

or I pull my investment." If you buy and

sell tech stocks, you're in the tech

sector. If you're affected by AI in any

way, the earnings report tomorrow is the

only one that matters right now. I'm

going to give you the exact numbers to

watch, the bull case, the bare case, and

what actually matters when the headline

hits tomorrow at 5:00 p.m. First, I want

to accentuate this is not normal

earnings season noise. This is very

different. Nvidia is currently sitting

around a $3.2 trillion

valuation. And you're saying, "But Dr.

Where did you get that $250 billion

number for that made me click on this

video? Well, simple. If there's an 8%

post earnings move, whether that goes up

or down, that's roughly a $250 billion

swing. So, put differently, one print

can gain or lose how much most Fortune

500 companies are worth total. That's

exceptional. That's not about one

ticker. That's about changing and

remapping the entire market topology.

and we're about to price in what that AI

optimism is actually worth versus how

much it's valued on the market. So,

that's a lot of hot takes, but let's

talk about the concrete numbers. Total

revenue, we're expecting about 39

billion. EPS roughly 84 expected. Data

center revenue roughly $34 billion

expected. If Nvidia beats all three and

raises guidance, the Bulls stay in

control. All is good. And although the

bubble has popped, the finances haven't

caught up at least tomorrow. If they

miss any of these, especially guidance,

that rewrites the whole story. And yes,

in case you're wondering, if the stock

beats, that can also negatively impact

the stock price as well. A lot of the

time, you will see a stock dip

immediately after earnings. Even if they

beat and even if the guidance is good.

So even if everything goes swimmingly

well, it could still go south for

Nvidia. Probably not 8% south. they'd

have to miss one or more of those

numbers by a wide margin and guidance

would have to look uncertain. But we're

still talking a pretty big swing even if

they beat numbers. Uh that's still in

the cards. But like I said, the earnings

are one part of the equation, but the

guidance is maybe the thing that the

Wall Street investors are going to be

valuing even more right now. Strength is

priced in. There's so much money flowing

into the AI sector. All of this flows

down to Nvidia. They are the chip

manufacturer. They are giving out chip

deals with people. They are the roads

which the entire AI infrastructure run

on. So the bar isn't good. It's great.

And so the exact number we're looking

for there, if guidance clears about 40

billion, we're probably all good. We're

probably all good. And we've delayed the

finance part of the bubble pop until

another quarter. If guidance comes in at

high30s or below, it's going to be a

crazy time because not only is this

going to negatively impact Nvidia, which

has this insane high valuation, could be

a $250 billion swing easy. That's

definitely within the cards if things go

south, but it's going to affect the

entire AI sector. They're inextricably

linked with all of the hyperscalers,

publicly traded companies, as well as

the private markets, too. So, there's

not really going to be a great way to

stash your cash cash if this goes south.

at least in tech related to AI, related

to AI infrastructure, related to the

tech. Uh this is going to be really

sideways if they come in at high30s or

even lower than that cuz remember

they're trading at a very high multiple

and Wall Street is paying for premium

multiples which means they want premium

returns on their money. No one is paying

for adequate at least for Nvidia and

because Nvidia controls so much of this

infrastructure. This is basically a read

through on the hyperscaler capex as

well. Remember hyperscalers spent about

$200 billion uh on AI infrastructure

this year. The projections based on the

earnings from those major hyperscalers

is something around $630 billion. I

still am just shocked every time I say

that number. And if Nvidia is not

confident, if they don't guide well,

that's going to have a lot of investors

start to ask questions like, are we

overbuilding? Are we getting ahead of

ourselves? The right questions that they

should have been asking all along. But

right now, everyone is so deeply

invested in this, so highly leveraged

that you don't want to ask those

questions because they could bring up

uncomfortable answers, but they'll be

forced to face them if they don't guide

strong tomorrow. So the bullcase, this

is the bullcase for Nvidia. The demand

is going to stay constrained. you you

can't do anything to change that. Nvidia

cannot produce chips fast enough to suit

market needs. We know that this is one

of the reasons all the hyperscalers

other than breaking up monopoly are

trying to develop their own chips or

working with other chip firms to try to

displace Nvidia. Gross margins stay

elite. Think mid70s territory. Blackwell

ramps cleanly and guidance moves up, not

sideways. If that happens, boys and

girls, we are we are pumping on this. Uh

the bubble is inflating a little bit

more. The pop is going to be bigger. the

bare case. Honestly, we're still going

to have strong growth, but we're going

to see that decelerating versus comps as

these other competitors enter the market

and scale up to eminence. People aren't

just mysteriously going to stop using

Nvidia chips tomorrow, even if they have

a really bad earnings call. the

management tone and the branding and the

PR you're going to start to see from

Jensen and other Nvidia execs is going

to shift from something more like demand

is exceeding our capability to produce

these to words like balanced predicted

those sorts of things. So here's my

framework. We're going to get a video up

within a couple of hours after that

earning call ends. Make sure you're

subscribed. Hit the bell notification to

be notified as soon as that video drops

tomorrow after Nvidia earnings. We'll

break down all of the numbers and what

it means for the market. But I I'll tell

you my framework or script for going

into this is a few things I'm looking

out for. One, I care more about the

guide than the beat. What do they think

this looks like going forward? What's

their proof for assuming that? And can

they sway investors? And I care more

about margin durability than EPS. We

know 3/4 worth of earnings will cap off

with their general statements about the

entire fiscal year, but ultimately

Nvidia is probably going to do pretty

well. I assume they're going to beat,

but are they able to preserve the margin

that they're operating at? And I care a

lot about management tone. We've already

see Jensen, he's obviously working with,

I'm sure, a small army of PR people, and

the phrasing of these things are is

becoming very important. how he says

things, how he appears in front of the

media because so much of the valuation

is contingent upon that. He had he is

not a con man. You can watch my profile

piece on him. I don't think he's a con

man. But by the definition of the word,

he is a con man. He's a confidence man.

His job is to portray confidence in this

company so that the AI bubble doesn't

pop. So bottom line, it is well within

the realm of possibility for Nvidia to

swing 250 billion up or down. who knows

after tomorrow. That's my analysis for

the margin of the upside and the

downside for this. And if it loses 250

billion in value, that is going to

change the AI market for a few weeks. A

lot of companies are going to be hurting

as a result of that. But I think the

bubble will still limp along. I think

Nvidia will come back and recover for a

couple of quarters before we really see

this house of cards fall down. If you

dig the hat, this is a new one. Scorched

Earth, abandonedware.online. I have the

link down there in the description. This

is my buddy's hat company. Please go get

some hats from him. As usual, thank you

for watching. If you want all of the

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