Today's number 187 million. That's how

many minutes our fans spent listening

[music] to Property Markets in 2025 on

Spotify alone. That's equivalent to 356

years in celebration. [music] Ed,

tonight I'm going to watch Jaws with my

son. Uh we're going to do it a bit

different though. We're going to watch

it backwards. And it's actually when you

watch it backwards, a heartwarming story

of a shark who helps people work through

their disabilities.

All the podcast jokes are kind of lame.

It's like It's like going to therapy and

your therapists are people who haven't

matured since 2011. [laughter]

>> Oh, you like that one better.

>> Yeah, I like that one better.

>> I like that.

>> Congratulations, Ed. You're not only 30

under 30, but we're wasting people's

time. [laughter]

We're

>> pretty good. Pretty pretty good numbers.

Should we do a crime podcast where we

where we describe where we describe

hideous murders as like skincare

routine?

>> We'd be more successful. True crime

podcast absolutely crush, which I do not

understand. I've never found a true

crime podcast interesting in the least.

>> How Well, let's bring in Claire. How

does any woman ever be around any man or

live in an apartment building or stay in

her car when she parks after listening

to crime podcasts? It's basically all

the same thing. There's a stranger in

town who's introduced early in the

podcast who commits a terrible murder

against a woman. They're all the same.

>> Claire,

>> you want my take on true crime? Do you

listen to crime? I don't listen to them

either.

>> You don't listen to them?

>> No. No.

>> Okay.

>> I don't I don't listen to a lot of

podcasts. Scott, I don't have a lot of

time to listen to anything other than

>> You're supposed to give us a nuance take

on how women

>> on how women feel

>> on how women feel. Yeah.

>> What? Actually, Claire, what what I'm

the same way. The first podcast I ever

listened to was the one I was on with

Cara Swisser. I still don't listen to

this one, but what um [laughter]

[gasps]

what podcast do you listen to, Claire?

>> I actually I listened to one podcast

recently called Articles of Interest.

That's all about how our fashion

industry is inherently linked to the the

American military.

>> Wow.

>> And it's been an exploration of kind of

how each war has shaped what we wear as

Americans. I think that one's pretty

fascinating. I think you would like it

actually.

>> That sounds cool.

>> Articles of interest. Yeah.

>> Ed, what do you listen to?

>> I listen to me. I listen to

who else?

>> I listen to Lex Freriedman sometimes,

actually. I've been listening to that.

>> Yeah,

>> it's been good.

>> Lex.

>> Um, yeah.

>> Well, that was fascinating. Let's move

on from these personal interest stories.

[laughter]

Um,

>> you know, you know, you're the one who

started this. Did you know that?

>> Yeah. I was just hoping I had more

interesting friends. [laughter]

>> Why you ask a more interesting question?

>> What are you guys doing over [laughter]

what I was doing? I listen to the daily.

>> Um, I used to listen to Radical History

and then I realized no one was watching

me listen so I don't need to listen to

them because I'm not impressing anybody.

Um, [laughter]

>> okay. That's funny.

So, I mostly I listen to our stuff. I

listen to occasionally I listen to an

interview that Cara does on on with Cara

Swisser. I really like the Daily. I

think they do a great job and it makes

me feel very old and very white. I'm

kind of settling into Get Off My Lawn

when I'm listening to the Daily. I like

that that guy asks a couple questions

that his producer tease up and then

every few seconds goes, "Huh? [snorts]

Huh? [laughter] So, what you're saying

is it was difficult."

I'm like a lot of skill there.

>> What do you mean by that? [laughter]

>> By the way, I made fun of him and

supposedly he's really upset and all

butt hurt that we met.

>> We're talking about Baro.

>> Michael. Yeah.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah. Michael, welcome to Come on

Anytime, you sexy beast. He's got all

that Movember hair on his head now on

his face now. He's very, very handsome.

Very good voice, too. I

>> actually have no idea what he looks

like. What are your reflections on on

2025 for the show? Uh we are entering a

new year but

those minutes sounded like a lot of a

lot of listening time reflections on the

show and how we've done

>> well so

kind of zooming out I thought that

podcasting so I sold my company in 2017

started another company and I realized I

went off this hamster wheel of more

money I like more money but I wanted I

want other things to drive me and I

thought would make me really happy and I

want creativity to hit intellectual

property to hit influence and try and do

meaningful work. And we started Prop

Media and we want to make enough money

to pay our people well and make good

livingings but it was never it was

different. It was a different approach.

It was never about okay I've always been

how do I raise a [ __ ] ton of money,

build something and then sell it to a

company. That's been my strategy for the

last 30 years. This was different. This

was more about, you know, quote unquote

emotional and intellectual reward. And

about two years ago, we started doing

really well and we started launching new

voices, new programs. And now my greed

glands are going again. And so Prop

Markets within the portfolio of the five

podcasts is growing faster, I think,

than any other of our properties. And

the most exciting thing about it is

earlier in the year you and Claire

basically went to five days a week and

I'm basically like one one and a half.

And so and by the way that does has not

in any way slowed the growth. So uh and

I also believe the opportunity.

So I think CNBC sucks. I don't know if

you've ever picked up on that from me,

but I think there's a huge opportunity

to be the premier

uh business media property, especially

going after young people. I think the

average age of a CNBC viewer is like

dead and we get the average age of our

listeners is 34. So, and that's where

all the money is. So, I like the idea of

surrounding

um a set of consumers with shows on

economics, China, the markets. We do our

political podcasts, but there's just no

getting around it. You and Claire have

in the profit market team have killed

it. You guys are what I mean, you've won

a bunch of award in addition to your 30

under 30. Jesus, what what is the

podcast one? We won best business

podcast. What did we win?

>> We won the signal award. Best business

podcast. We also won the Webbby award.

>> There you go. So, it's been it's been

great. It's been I think this was

Claire's first job. I know it was your

first job. Claire, was it your first

job?

>> Yeah, it was after internships.

>> Okay. So, think about this. The two

people running this show, the person

running it behind the mic and the person

in front of the mic, this was their

first job. So, I think that but that's

really exciting. That's really nice. And

>> and you guys work well together. And uh

I like the Yeah, I'm just uh this is

probably markets I think is growing.

It's probably the most successful

product I've ever been involved in right

out of the gates. I don't have anything

I can

>> Wow.

>> I don't think I've ever launched.

Typically when I launch a product or a

website or a business, it's kind of

like, oh, I have a great idea and I

raise some money. I'm like, well, this

isn't working. And I pivot and I pivot

and it does okay. And then pivot again

and we catch on to something. And that's

why I tell entrepreneurs that the key is

just starting because whatever you think

makes sense until you face the enemy

being the marketplace. You don't know.

And the vision for this granted we had

pro we had property markets for a while

twice a week but then when we went to

five times a week and also I love that

you guys have done a great job

incorporating other I'm talking my own

book here but I I'm really happy. How do

you guys feel about it? Claire, you go

first. You're the you're the brains

behind this Joey Bag of Donut Taco

Stand. It's been a really rewarding

year. I mean, it kind of went off

without a hitch and we've got such a

good team behind us. So, um I don't

know. It's been it's been a lot of fun.

It's been a year of hard work, but it

hasn't been a hard year. It's been a

really fun year. So, I've loved it. And

I think we're going into

year

four.

>> Wow. It's been that long? I didn't know

that

>> it's been that long. We start we started

with one episode in 2022 in July of 22.

>> Ed reflections.

>> Uh I'm just surprised that there's so

much to talk about. I remember when we

when you said I want to do a daily show.

I was like well there's not enough stuff

that happens in the world to talk about.

Oh my god was I wrong. You can talk

about anything. There is so much crazy

[ __ ] happening especially in business in

markets. So it's been really fun um

learning how to do that. Um, I I I need

to come up with something with a plan

for 2026. Our our 2025 thing was, okay,

now we're going to do a daily. Every

year we have a thing that we're working

towards. I need to think about what

that's going to be for 2026.

>> You think it's going to be events?

>> Events. That's good. That's a good one.

We can make it events.

>> So, going to have people come up to me

and ask me about if you're single, which

I'm really looking forward to. 2026 is

going to be about, I think, about events

and alternative platforms for

distribution. But I think Clara's point

is a really important one that she's

gotten a lot of psychic compensation

because this year the monetary

compensation will be dramatically lower

for both of you. [laughter]

So I just want to prepare you and I want

to acknowledge Claire's [laughter]

recognition of the psychic compensation.

>> I need nothing else, Scott.

>> Yeah.

>> I've had a terrible time. [laughter]

I've had a terrible time. Yeah. No,

>> it's been it's been wonderful. Thanks

thanks for your good work.

>> Just consider [clears throat] that for

for my review.

>> Uhhuh.

>> [laughter]

>> Okay, let's get into our episode here.

This is our first episode of the year.

Um, it is pre-taped, [laughter]

so we'll be back next week for our

proper episode and we'll get into

everything that's been happening. Uh,

but for this episode to kick it off, we

are going to walk through your

predictions for 2026. We're going to

cover your thoughts on what is in store

for AI, for media, for emerging tech.

try to address some audience questions

and comments we got on the live stream.

Um, that sound good?

>> Yeah, sounds great.

>> Okay, we're gonna zoom through this.

So, your first prediction here, [music]

Scott, AI stocks correct. Please unpack

that. Yeah. So I think the groundwork

for this is I think China is so sick of

dealing with the sclerotic raccoon on

meth policies of the Trump

administration where he has uh changed

the tariff policy uh with China 17 times

since entering office. And if I were him

and they've seen this for a while

they've been diversifying away from the

US. They've gone from 17% of their

exports went to the US. It's down to 10.

and they have reduced just in the last

gosh the last eight months their exports

to the US by 70 billion and if I were

advising she I've said this before I'd

go for the jugular and I'd start dumping

AI [clears throat] into the US market

with openw weight less expensive AI

models and I believe they're already

starting to do that and as you see as

technical um specifications or

performance of these things start to

reach par and they seem to be able to

train their models for less money and

have uh build models that require less

energy. I think they're just going to

dump a massive amount of AI into the

market and crash our market or uh force

a correction in the valuation of these

companies. So I think that's I think

that's coming and uh these it's really

interesting now they appear to be doing

this making these advances with

substantially less capback. People would

say that the capex is hidden because

similar to how Boeing benefited from

massive government military spending, a

lot of people say local governments are

propping up these AI or openweight AI

models. But one thing is clear, they're

reaching sort of technical parody. So if

you can get 90% of open AR anthropic for

30% of the price, that's a really good

value proposition. and the CEO of

Airbnb, Brian Chesy, kind of rattled

markets when he said that they were

relying on Alibaba's

uh I don't know if it's QN or Quen

model. He said it's very good and it's

also fast and cheap. Uh so I think

anyways I think these stocks are going

to come under these valuations are going

to come under huge pressure as more and

more companies announce that they're

using um you know much less expensive uh

Chinese models.

I'm just going to zoom us to the the the

second prediction which is that the data

center bubble bursts.

>> Yeah. I I find that a lot of the data

center modeling is essentially such that

uh Sam Alman can pretend his business is

going to be much bigger than it is. the

number of data centers announced is um

up at 240% but if you look at the actual

number that have begun construction it's

a fraction of that. I feel like a lot of

this is signaling as opposed to actual

construction and also there's huge

points of constraint and specifically

um like one of the biggest data centers

in Nvidia's hometown is still empty

because it's awaiting power. It it

they're estimating for a lot of these

things it would take 5 to 8 years to

connect them to the grid. And if you

believe the statements around the

revenue projections and the power

required to fund the data centers

implicit in these revenues projections,

we would need 250 nuclear plants, new uh

nuclear power plants in a cost at a cost

of $10 trillion. So,

you know, I just think it's, you know,

Alman said, "Our vision is simple. we

want to create a factory that can

produce a gigawatt of new AI

infrastructure every week. I I just

don't see how that's feasible. I also

don't think it's true. Uh I think he's

just trying to say I know my business so

well and as a head fake look at we're

going to need all this power and uh I

just don't I just don't think it's it's

going to happen and all the data I think

the data storage

projections are way off and that that

that bubble is going to is going to pop

and whether or not the infrastructure uh

power infrastructure keeps up or

increases or not uh the capex will

absolutely increase it but meanwhile

China kind of is continuing to power

ahead. They they brought on 256 gawatts

of new solar capacity in 2025, the first

half, and that's more than the rest of

the world. So, it doesn't even appear

that we have the infrastructure or we

have the capital, but it doesn't appear

like we're actually going on with it. So

it strikes me that one of they'll either

be huge constraints logistically

or that we're going to find that in fact

AI does slow down and there are cheaper

less energy consumptive ways of powering

these LLMs or that they'll be powered

out of China with openw weight models.

So I think we're going to see um a bit

of a bubble burst in not only AI stocks

but in this data storage hysteria. In

addition, um unfortunately what we're

going to see is another wealth transfer

from middle class households in the form

of higher electricity prices because it

will put a strain on the existing grid

which will transfer to an increase in

electricity prices for middle class

consumers.

But also incumbent in the first

prediction about those stocks we're

correcting. I think there's going to be

a bailout in 2026 and the bailout is

going to be of AI specifically. They'll

position as some sort of strategic

government investment in the form of

loan guarantees to continue the music

playing, but it's effectively going to

be a bailout. And that is all of these

companies are built on such ridiculous

expectations around revenue growth. And

the way they will want to get to that

revenue growth and provide the

infrastructure and buy more chips will

be to take on massive deods backed by

the government, which in my mind is

essentially a bailout.

>> Yeah. I mean, well, AI bailed out

Trump's administration, so it would only

make sense that the next year Trump's

administration bails out AI. It would it

would bring everything full circle.

[music]

>> Your third prediction, the Nvidia and

OpenAI duopoly comes under siege. Please

unpack that prediction. Well, it's just

the great thing about competition.

Nvidia is the most valuable company in

the world because they're able to

command incredible operating margins. It

reminds me when I got out of business

school in '92, the premier job was Intel

and Apple and Motorola got sick of

Intel's essential duopoly in conjunction

with their partnership with Microsoft

and they started producing their own

chips. And um you know, OpenAI is saying

they're going to increase their revenues

by $180 billion by 2030 and Nvidia 800

billion by 2030. And then if you look at

I mean it's just it's just staggering.

And we're also seeing that while these

companies still dominate, we are seeing

some share dispersion. Specifically,

Gemini is now 15%. Deepseek, which was

at zero, is now at 4%.

And also, you know, as we've said, we

think Gemini is probably the most

underrated LLM because of the fire hose

of, you know, a couple billion users

each day that they can fire via Google

search and I find that the AI summaries

at the top of Google queries are getting

better and better. I think anthropic per

our comments around I think it's going

to be a successful IPO. I think it'll

grow its share. So, and even Amazon and

Google are trying to get into the game

uh producing their own chips to compete

with Nvidia. This is a good thing. But

right now, Nvidia's share of GPU market

is 94%. That will come way down. And um

their market cap right now is greater

than the entire stock market of Canada,

UK, France, Germany, and Italy. Uh and

then if you just look at the market cap

of this company relative you Nvidia's

market cap is greater than the market

cap of Costco, Bank of America, IBM,

Palanteer, Exxon Mobile, Walmart,

Netflix, Oracle, Home Depot and

Salesforce combined. I don't think

that's sustainable. And back to the

Intel example.

Intel had a similar type of duopoly with

Microsoft versus Nvidia and Open AI. And

in 1999, it was a $200 billion market

cap. By 2000 it was a half a trillion.

Now it's 165 billion. And granted, Intel

may be the worst managed big tech

company the last 25 years given their

leadership. But I do think it's somewhat

of a metaphor for what might happen to

Nvidia. And also Nvidia is a premium

price product. It costs about 10 bucks

an hour to use their um Nvidia H100

versus about half the price for an AWS

Tranium or a Google TPU. So I I don't

think this is kind of an this is a bit

of a layup because these two companies

are too profitable to maintain to not

attract huge sharks. There's so much

blood in the water here. So it's just

logical their share would come down. So

that's not that bold a prediction. I

guess the question is how much their

share will come down

>> and who will come for them? Who are they

going to be the main attackers?

>> Well, it's like Gary Oldman said in the

movie, was it the assassin with Natalie

Natalie Portman's first first movie? Uh

he says bring everyone and he's like

what do you mean? He's like everyone. So

everyone I think everyone's coming for

these guys. I think every big tech

player I mean Meta everyone's going to

be trying to develop their own chips and

their own LLMs and again per the

previous prediction China is just going

to just start massive AI dumping. I

don't know if they have the IP around

the chip, but I you know this Jeff Bezos

looks at all these rockets going into

space and the value of SpaceX and starts

saying, "Okay, Kyper." And I would bet

that they're thinking a lot long and

hard about how to develop a pretty

robust chip offering.

We'll be right back after the break. And

if you're enjoying the show, send it to

a friend and please follow us if you

haven't already.

We're back with Profy Markets.

>> Okay, big tech stock pick is Amazon. Why

is that? So, it's all about obviously

their earnings growth, strategic

positioning, and also all of this

relative to

um their current valuation. And Amazon,

so our big tech stock pick of last year

was Alphabet. It's up 60 um 8%. The

worst performing stock of the last of

the year to date is Amazon only up 7%.

And if you look at their revenue per

employee, it's actually down 28% in the

last 10 years versus up 49,

56, and 62 at Meta Alphabet and

Microsoft respectively. And I think a

lot of that is not because of

underperformance of Amazon, but because

of huge investments in um uh more people

to staff their factories and also huge

investments in robotics and AI. And I

think that where AI begins to pay real

dividends in terms of market cap

increases is that I think it will lose

market cap across the infrastructure and

LLM layer, but I think it's going to

increase market cap and quote unquote

the application layer specifically

around autonomous

and robotics. And I think Amazon's

acquisition in KA was genius.

And the fact that Amazon has a million

robots or

um a million um operational industrial

robots versus the rest of the nation of

400,000 and their prediction that they

can double their retail revenue by 2033

or 32 without any increase in employees

just says to me that one of the biggest

businesses in the world and that is

Amazon's retail business is going to

register margin expansion. Typically

what's happened over the last 10 years

is all the margin expansion has come

from Amazon media group or from AWS. But

if you're able to expand the margins

substantially across one of the world's

largest revenue streams and that is

Amazon's platform retail that's going to

be um dramatic. And Amazon is the Ford

of the 21st century. Ford in about 10 or

15 years took the production time of a

car down 90% and in the last decade

Amazon's been able to do the same thing

from click to order. And I think it's

going to take it down 99% and you're

going to have huge Amazon warehouses and

delivery basically almost the entire

supply chain uh operated by these

industrial robots and that obviously has

societal implications but it's going to

be great for Amazon shareholders and

then you layer in Kyper which is its uh

uh Bezos attempt to develop launch

capability. I think that'll become it's

kind of been a pimple on the elephant to

SpaceX. I think that's going to become

not a big competitor but a player if you

will. Um, and I just don't see AWS is

been kind of hammered as being seen as

the least AI compatible or the least AI

enabled cloud but it is still the number

one cloud company and it's also trading

at what are typically historically low

multiples for Amazon. It typically

trades at 58 P of 58 which is rich. It's

now trading at 33. Its enterprise value

to ibeta over the last five years has

averaged 23. It's now at 17. In some

just as Alphabet looked cheap to me last

year or reasonable I should say not

cheap, Amazon doesn't look cheap but it

looks reasonable and I think people are

going to realize that AI the best

interface of AI is in autonomous or in

robotics and Amazon is a leader in

collapsing AI and robotics.

>> Listen a comment kind of surprised to

pick is an alphabet again given how

you've praised Google's progress in AI.

Why not Google against her?

>> Could be. I I think so. I own some

Alphabet and I'm not selling and the

thing I'm most excited about quite

frankly with Alphabet is Whimo because

again I think the the place that AI

starts to register stakeholder growth is

an Autonomous.

I I like Alphabet. I'm not selling. Uh

it's it's up 69% this year. So it's had

or 68%. So it's had a pretty a pretty

big run, but I still think it's it's one

of the more reasonably uh priced stocks.

fifth predictions. Space becomes the

next thing.

>> Well, tech of the year. So I, you know,

AI, then I predicted voice, then AI,

then GLP1, and last year I predicted

nuclear. This year I'm predicting um

space and that is what technology or

platform or sector traps attracts the

most cheap capital and sees the most the

greatest increase in valuations and I

think it's going to be space. Um, and if

I were running IR for SpaceX, the way I

would position it is, okay, Google gets

90% of search,

Meta 60% of all social, Amazon 50% of

all commerce, but we at SpaceX have 90%

of literally everything else. And that

is, if you look at this tiny little pale

blue dot in one of 10,000 universes or

galaxies, we own 90% of everything

outside of that blue dot. we are putting

I think 90% of launch launch capacity

right now 2/3 of satellites they can get

um they can get items or products into

space for less than anyone else the

price per kilogram's come down 90% which

sort of gives them a bit of a mini

monopoly on space and space has evolved

from kind of weird narcissism and

nihilism yeah let's people like space

tourism is the stupidest [ __ ]

business I'd ever heard but space

hauling is huge

and uh connectivity and then where I

think you're going to get real some real

serious like um new unicorns is going to

be in space defense like what is the

andeland and is that it's called of

space and it might be

uh but there's going to be some

companies who um are going to say we're

the best at building weapons deployed in

space and those companies are going to

go crazy so I think that the next kind

of big technology that results and a

massive increase in attention capital

and companies you never heard of

becoming unicorns is um this space

best investment you don't have access to

Tik Tok US

>> so uh Trump in what is socialism meets

cronyism has basically forced China to

sell Tik Tok to a group of Republican

donors that total [ __ ] socialism,

denial of rule of law, and he's carving

it up like a birthday cake and giving it

to his Republican buddies, and they're

getting it for a song. Supposedly, the

price is 14 billion. 50% of the revenues

are going to go back to the CCP.

Um, uh, which technically makes it a $28

billion price tag. Uh, it Tik Tok's US

business is about 12 billion in revenue.

If you assign the same multiple Alphabet

has, despite the fact Tik Tok's probably

growing faster than Alphabet, which is

10, you get an implied valuation of 120

billion. So effectively, these guys are

getting um getting a 4.5x on their

investment from day zero when they are

awarded the company. And unfortunately,

as Democrats, we don't have access to

this investment. But this is probably

the biggest hundred billion dollar

giveaway I think in recent memory based

on cronyism and a lack of [snorts]

feckless neutered uh co-equal branch or

or not equal other branches of Congress

that should be blocking this deal. But

this is the this will be the easiest way

that any group of people have made

hundred billion dollars in 12 months.

>> Listen a question. What happens to Tik

Tok when Democrats win back government

control?

>> It's a really interesting question. The

problem is they're so [ __ ] old that

they just don't understand it. And I

don't know how they unwind that deal. Do

they unwind it? I don't know. I'm not

sure. I'm not sure anything

happens because

you know once it's like trying we know

Instagram

I mean Congress really [ __ ] up

approving Meta's acquisition of

Instagram. They [ __ ] up letting

Alphabet acquire YouTube. these would be

two great companies, competitors

battling it out, lowering rents on

advertisers and consumers because

there'd be more options for advertisers.

Um, but once these acquisitions are

done, they're very hard. It's it's very

hard to break up companies. So, I don't

know. I I don't know if anything's going

to happen.

>> That's exactly what Jonathan Caner's

point has been as well. Just this

retroactive approach to policy is so

useless and [music] it never gets us

anywhere. so hard.

>> Prediction number seven, short form

video and AI meteors strike Hollywood.

>> Since 2019, US restaurants have come

back and then some. Airlines have come

back and then some. um concerts. Um uh

Broadway is back to almost where it was.

Uh hotel occupancy is slightly down.

Theme park attendance is still slightly

down, but the film industry is off 30 to

40% since co it just never came back.

And when industries are in structural

decline, it's like something happens and

takes they have a step change down and

they never recover. And if you're a

listener in the creative community here,

you absolutely want to run as fast as

you can to a small screen. If you're if

you're making [ __ ] for the big screen, I

went and saw that movie Battle After

Battle. The Leo DiCaprio movie. Was it

called Battle After Battle?

>> Yeah. One battle after another.

>> It's literally peak artistic

masturbation. Supposedly the thing cost

200 to 300 million. It's, you know, it's

a decent film on Netflix that should

have cost 12 million. We're all talking

or I've been talking for a while for a

couple years now about how AI is coming

for Hollywood and that all of the you

know these these unions who just think

they're so [ __ ] precious and not and

somewhat immune from market realities

are just going to have such a rude

awakening and I think the Ellison get a

hold of these assets and have to justify

or find efficiencies from overpaying for

these things. AI is coming for them.

What people aren't talking about is

these short form video platforms. Um,

like something called the Kids Diana

Show has 137 million subscribers versus

Disney at 128 million subscribers. So

these really short form, it's basically

Quibby but with better storytelling. I

mean Magw women and Jeff Katzenberg to

their credit, they were actually right

in 2019. One of my predictions was

Quibby would fold and I was right. they

were just ahead of their time. And that

is we're basically punching out into the

market a group of adults who have

attention spans of two to three minutes.

And the idea of a series that is 2,

three, or 10 minutes seems weird to

people my age, but it's actually kind of

in line with the brain being trained by

Tik Tok. And so I think a lot of these

platforms are going to um start to erode

share not only from traditional

streaming networks, but especially from

movies. I even find myself I have a

tough time sitting through a movie and I

think it's because I've gotten so used

to short form video and I will not go to

a movie unless I know it's at least good

if not great. I just won't do it. I

won't take a risk on a movie. Whereas

when I was your age, Ed, I used to go

at least when I was a teenager, I would

go to two movies a week. I would just

see everything. I would see everything

when it came out. And the good movies. I

saw Empire Strikes Back like six times.

I saw Greece five times.

Um, wonderful movie, Ed. Uh, I don't

know if you saw Greece. Have you ever

seen Greece with John Travolt and Olivia

Newton John?

>> Yeah, of course.

>> And Jeff Conway who later died of opiate

addiction. Um, fantastic film. Anyways,

uh, these short form video. First it was

Tik Tok coming for them and I think that

you're going to see a bunch of upstarts

with new platforms. Yeah, it's just

going to be streaming streaming video

will hold on. Uh movies are just going

to it's sometimes it's darkest before

it's pitch black. I think you're going

to see more theaters closed and I think

you're going to see unless it's it's

just so discouraging, but we're just

going to see sequel after sequel after

sequel cuz the cost I just saw a movie

called Roofman, which is a wonderful

film. uh barely broke. It'll be lucky if

it breaks even because no one's seeing

movies anymore.

Let's move on to your eighth prediction.

Whimo speeds ahead.

>> So, a million trips u September 2025.

They've pulled ahead of absolutely

everybody. It's a it's a time machine. I

think I think Whimo could drive a half a

trillion dollars in value at at Alphabet

because if you want a trillion dollar

company, you got to build a time

machine. This gives back a ton of pe a

ton of time to people and the cost, you

know, the downside of Whimo is the car

costs about a quarter of a million

dollars versus

Tesla's at 40 and BYU's at 30, but I

think that cost will come way down

because of the lidar sensors. But uh the

two domestic competitors Tesla and Zuks

are absolutely nowhere compared to

Whimo. They're I think Whimo in um 2025

had 9 million or it looks like it's

going to have 9 million rides. I think

Tesla's going to have less than 100,000

and so is Zuk. So um you know Tesla has

one and a quarter million miles with a

human safety monitor in the front which

kind of defeats the whole purpose and

Whimo's already did 100 million miles.

So uh the other player that's really

going to benefit from

the autonomous explosion in 2026 is

going to be Uber who I think Darcast is

one of the brightest managers in tech

right now and he's taking an agnostic

approach letting all of these players

massively spend on the technology and

he'll just be the front end and use his

custody of the consumer to offer people

autonomous across a variety of players.

So I think as the distribution [snorts]

kind of mechanism for for uh autonomous

I actually think he'll be a winner.

Everyone's saying was going to eat into

their business. I think he's smart and

is going to actually benefit from it.

>> Ninth prediction. [music]

Humanoid robots are the self-driving

cause of 2015.

>> Better or not. I should have said

they're the segue. This is just so

[ __ ] ridiculous. Again, more weapons

of mass destruction from Elon Musk

trying to get people not to look at the

fact he has a car company worth 100

billion, not 1.4 trillion. And he even

said that uh robots would comprise 90%

of the enterprise value of Tesla.

Basically, what he's saying is I need to

find something to be 90% of the value

because it's not here with cars. And I

just don't think I it's just so

interesting. People don't do any

consumer research. The last [ __ ]

thing I want in my home is a robot

trapesing around. I mean, it's just so

ridiculous.

>> What if it was really exclusive and

expensive?

>> Yeah, I don't think I'm quite that level

of douchebag, but um No, I don't want a

robot. I don't I just think these things

are ridiculous. I I I don't I don't see

these things I don't think they've done

any consumer research around do people

really want a humanoid robot trapesing

around their house. In addition, the

utility is just not there. They don't

the technology is just not there. And

this is one place you're going to have a

million non- college or you know non-

high school grad mostly men put out of

business because the experience

unfortunately the human contribution to

that job the delta is just not that much

greater than or it's less cuz they're

more dangerous than an autonomous

whereas uh quote unquote whatever you

call it domestic help is still 10x what

a [ __ ] robot's going to do in your

house. These things just don't work and

they're creepy and they're weird. Um, so

I [clears throat] again this is the

segue

the the autonomous 10 years ago vastly

overhyped a weapon of mass distraction

going nowhere.

>> Listener question is now the time to

short Tesla.

>> I would never tell anyone to short Tesla

because I wanted to short it at 30 bucks

a share. What's it at now? I I I've been

so wrong on Tesla and this company is a

meme stock, meaning it's not connected

to its underlying fundamentals.

So, Ro they could announce terrible

earnings. They could announce these

robots make no sense and the stock could

be up 20%. It's been become totally

disconnected from its uh underlying

fundamentals. So, rather than give

advice, I'll say what I'm doing. I'm

looking at buying these two and 3x

leveraged uh short positions on the

Magnificent 10, including Tesla, cuz I

think it's all overvalued right now.

Just as a hedge, not a big bet, but just

as a hedge such that if the market, you

know, throws up and these things are off

50%, I'll still lose money because

everything's correlated, you know, my

total portfolio probably go down 20 or

30%. But I'll maybe get 10 10 or 15 back

if I if I take this short position. So,

[music] I I wouldn't tell anyone to

short Tesla because this company has

become disconnected from its

fundamentals a long time ago.

>> We'll be right back. And for even more

markets content, [music] sign up for our

newsletter at profmarkets.com/subscribe.

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We're back with Prof Markets

>> 10th prediction vice of the year is

prediction markets.

>> Yeah, these things are fascinating. They

have built into them the most incredible

marketing and that is they the wisdom of

crowds is is fascinating and they become

it's not only insight into what might

happen but become self-fulfilling pro

prophecies. When you see these digital

billboards in Manhattan saying 95%

likelihood from I think it was Kelshi

that mom Donnie would win the election,

it becomes a self-fulfilling fulfilling

prophecy. And a lot of times these

prediction markets really have insight

into what's going to happen because

you're getting thousands of points of

light from different processors called

human brains. So and so it's incredible

marketing. More and more people get

excited. More and more people will be

arguing over, you know, Thanksgiving

dinner about who will be president.

decide to make bets. So, and people love

the dopa of gambling and especially

young men who want to believe that they

can find easy riches without actually

showing the grit and discipline of

getting up and going to work. Um, and

the calc said something interesting. He

said, "If we're gambling, then I think

you're basically calling the entire

financial market gambling." And there's

some truth to that. The problem is it's

going to be the mother of all insider

trading because if if there's a one in

three chance Eric Adams will drop out of

the race in the next seven days. What's

to say he can or is even illegal for him

to raise 10 million bucks from his

friends and say let's put 10 million on

me um um you know it's three to one that

I'll drop out in the next week and then

we'll make the bet and I'll drop out

tomorrow and I get a $20 million

um severance package for dropping out of

the race in the next seven days. I mean

the betting is getting down to will this

pitch be faster than 95 mph. So the

temptation just to coordinate with

people betting real time and manipulate

the market is just extraordinary here.

Uh they're getting into the market or

they're starting to bet on sports. Uh we

have a very lax administration. Dave

will just give millions of dollars to

the next I don't know he wants to build

I don't know a dance hall or a disco or

I I don't know a p he wants to put in

pole dancing and you know the oval

office or something the losers here

hands down are the gaming communities I

mean gaming stocks are down uh between 7

and 38% Caesar's off 30 is that Caesars

I think Caesar's off 38% all there's no

you don't why be in Vegas when Vegas is

in you and and that is it's in your

pocket and you're just seeing a crash in

Vegas. Visitor volume is down uh 8% to

Vegas. The problem with it is that see

another thing.

I mean, so much about the most valuable

companies in the world basically exploit

a flaw in our instincts and and free

safe play has been in short supply

and the envy of getting all of these

notifications on your phone has made a

less sophisticated or mature brain of

young men think that they can get rich

quick with um speculating. And 50% of US

men 18 to 49 have a sports betting

account. And about a third uh of sports

betterers say they're addicted. Uh so

this is and you know the consequences

are pretty dramatic here. When a state

legalizes gambling there's a 28%

increase in bankruptcies.

Uh there's a huge increase in domestic

violence and also my mom was a dosent at

the Bellagio Hotel and she's come home

with all these fun facts. [snorts] Uh

gambling has the highest suicide rate of

any addiction because if you become

addicted to meth people figure it out

and try and intervene. You can mortgage

your house, spend your co kids college

fund on gambling and nobody knows. And

so you feel like there's only one way

way out. As a matter of fact, one in

five people with gambling addiction at

some point attempt suicide.

>> 11th prediction, synthetic relationships

take center stage. Yeah, I hope that we

have gotten a little bit smarter about

the damage that big tech and these

platforms have done to young people and

that we have a more prompt

response to synthetic relationships. I I

really do think these things are a real

threat to our youth. Uh, by the way, I

want to acknowledge there's some really

positive things or potential about

synthetic relationships.

A quarter of people 65 and older are

socially isolated

uh because they've outlived their

friends and family or they're alienated

from their family. And so social

isolation among seniors increases the

risk of a stroke by 30%. And increases

the risk of dementia by 50%. And chronic

loneliness is has the same impact on

your health as smoking 15 cigarettes per

day. And also nursing homes are vastly

underststaffed. And a lot of what, you

know, a lot of what healthcare workers

say in these nursing homes is that what

what their residents really want is

company. What they want is

companionship.

Um, and so the share of the population

that is 65 or older is going from 12% in

2004 to by 2030 it'll be 21%.

So I do think these these synthetic

relationships have big opportunities

with senior seniors and there'll be some

interesting companies there. The problem

is it should be agegated. 3/4 of teens

have used have uh had a relationship

with an AI companion and half of them

say they're using it a few times a month

or more. Um and four fifths of users are

under the age of 35 which means Congress

will do nothing because they'll all be

watching [ __ ] murder she wrote and

have no idea that what a synthetic

relationship is and they're just not in

touch with this this technology and how

dangerous it is. And when you look at

just searches for how to make a friend

exploding on Google and how lonely

people are and the fact that their

amount of time they spend with their

family each day has been cut by 23 in

the last 20 years and the number of high

school teens who sees their friends

every day has been cut in half in the

last 15 years. And the number of people

stating that they're lonely is up 60%.

you just see where this is headed and

that is uh people sequestering from

society especially young men and I've

said this before that big tech wants to

evolve a new species of asocial asexual

males

um and it's

you know one in eight one in eight

people say they have no close friends

one in seven men says they have no

friends and unfortunately there's so

much profit in this because the amount

of the average duration or time spent on

chat GBT is 14 minutes and get this ad

the average amount of time spent on a

character AI or with a character AI, the

average amount of time is 93 minutes.

These things are really seductive. So, I

would I hope that our elected

representatives and some scholars really

take a hard line against synthetic

relationships for people under the age

of 18. I really do think that it's

pretty basic. The most rewarding and and

stabilizing thing in life are uh

relationships, but organic

relationships. And these things are

sequestering young people from their

family and their friends.

>> Your final prediction here is that the

college is dead narrative will collapse.

God, this is just hilarious. All these

people saying college is over and you

don't need to have a college degree.

Anyone who's saying that usually has a

double E degree in masters from

Stanford. And the parents as I'm in the

full process around my kid applying to

college right now, whenever I hear

people saying that, I'm like, "Oh, your

kid [ __ ] up on the ACT and you're

trying to make yourself feel better that

they're not getting going to get into a

good school." Um there's just no

evidence that that in fact is the case.

And uh the the narrative is very

striking. You know, the number of people

who say college is very important, uh,

Republicans, it's gone from, get this,

it's gone from 70% in 2014 to 20%.

Basically, Republicans think that

college is no longer important. And yet,

anyone with any money is going to work

their ass off to get their kid into

college. And Google and Apple have all

made these big announcements that they

no longer require a college degree

because it should be skills based as

opposed to certification based, which I

agree and that's a great idea. But

meanwhile, their hiring hasn't changed

at all. Um, the number of workers

without degrees has increased a whopping

3 and a.5%. And half of firms have made

no changes at all. So, despin to the

fact that college supposedly has no

value, you're still seeing big firms who

are, you know, we

kids who come to school think they're

the customer. They're not. Corporations

are the customers of colleges. Kids are

the product. And the key is to get

corporations to show up and pay

incremental salary in exchange for an

admissions department that makes sure

the kid isn't mentally ill, has group

skills, critical thinking, and a little

bit of training. But that value is still

there. Now, that's not to say that white

collar workers aren't going to go

through a down cycle or new college

grads because of AI, but the down cycle

won't be as bad. I mean, there might be

an uptick in vocational programming, but

it's still a pretty good plan B. And

people have been talking about Bill

Gates and Mark Zuckerberg dropping out

of college to start these amazing

companies. And I just say the same

thing. Assume you are not Mark

Zuckerberg. And what we see is that over

time the average median household income

for two college grads is 133K. And the

medium the medium uh household income

for people with uh high school

educations is 58,000. And by the way,

last year it didn't change. Uh, and

people who graduate from college have

much lower divorce rates, 26% versus 39.

Lower obesity, 27 versus 34. Uh, 2/3 of

people who go to college get married

versus half of people without a college

degree. And men with a high school

education were twice as likely to die by

suicide versus those with a college

degree. And this is, you know, one of my

big social pushes is that if you had a

pill that increased the likelihood you

would get married, run for Congress,

have uh strong household income, and

decrease the likelihood you would be

obese, take your life, be abusive,

uh be subject to conspiracy theory, have

diabetes, wouldn't you give that drug to

as many people as possible? But instead,

we in higher education, who think we're

really noble, have decided to hoard this

drug and artificially sequester supply.

There's no reason that Dartmouth,

Harvard, and these schools with over a

billion dollars in endowments couldn't

double, triple, quintuple their

enrollments and actually pretend that

they're [ __ ] social servants or civil

servants as opposed to Chanel bags. So,

uh, what's happened this year, despite

college having no value, enrollments,

fall undergrad enrollments is up 4.7%.

Ed. So, uh, and by the way, it's the

southern schools and the public schools

that are booming. The problem is, see

above how [ __ ] corrupt me and my

colleagues are, is that public schools

have increased their tuition since 2000,

adjusted for inflation, by 53%. That's

adjusted for inflation, and private

schools are up 32% in the last 25 years,

adjusted for inflation. The good news is

we are seeing we've seen an 18% increase

over the last 5 years in trade schools.

That's a hopeful sign. But the notion

that somehow college doesn't matter. Uh

be careful with that. Um and I'm not

saying that your kid should go to a

secondary school and take out a bunch of

debt if he or she really isn't cut out

for school. But this whole narrative of

college is going away and you don't need

college anymore. Yeah. That that that's

that's [ __ ]

>> Those are all the predictions. Uh before

we go here, there was a final reflection

from one of the viewers who watched this

predictions live stream. Uh they say,

"This is the most depressing hour I have

spent in years because I am afraid that

Scott isn't wrong." What would you say

to that?

>> Well, my last slide was I think a lot

about risk in the markets and my life,

how risk aggressive I've been, and it's

paid such huge dividends in terms of

starting companies. Even if they failed,

I started again

expressing friendship, making overtures

to to women who were out of my weight

class. You know, my father's risk DNA. I

inherited some of that risk

aggressiveness from my parents who

decided to take huge risks and leave

their families in the UK. I think a lot

about risk and how I diversify against

risk now that I'm older and I don't want

to lose all my money for a third time.

Uh but I think that

unfortunately what we have is we've tied

our economy to trying to increase um or

decrease young people's risk aggression

around relationships. And that is we've

said you can get all of your risk

aggressiveness out on betting on sports

or on um who's going to win the mayoral

race or uh taking risks online by saying

really incendiary things and seeing how

people respond.

And that's the mis the one of the

greatest misallocations of a resource in

history. And what I would suggest to any

young person especially young men is

take less risks with your money. Try and

be more risk

risk averse with your money and try to

be much more risk aggressive with your

time and your relationships in that is

don't take as many risks with Kouchy,

Poly Market, Robin Hood and crypto and

take more risks by getting out of the

house and approaching strangers and

expressing friendship and expressing

romantic interest. That that's where

risk needs to really increase. take more

risks outside of the house and take less

risks on your screen. Nothing wonderful

is going to happen to you without taking

risks. But there's bad risks and there's

good risks in expressing friendship,

telling people you care about them,

[music] telling people you're interested

in them. Those are the good risks that

that young people need to take more of.

Thank you for listening to Profit

Markets from Profit Media. Tune in

tomorrow for a fresh take on the

markets. [music]

>> [music]