You've been running simulations on a war

with Iran.

>> Yep. Every strategy for 20 years and

it's playing out right now. So I can

tell you that we are losing control of

the situation. Like we don't know where

that nuclear material is, but they have

the material for 16 nuclear bombs and

we've given them every incentive to

develop them.

>> Professor Robert Pap might be the single

most important credible person we all

need to listen to right now. The Supreme

Leader that we took out was against

nuclear weapons. The new Supreme Leader,

and he's way more aggressive.

>> He's advised two decades of presidents

in the White House. President Trump is

really stuck, but he thrives in chaos

and spent 30 years building the

curriculum that trains the Air Force for

the exact type of war that's taking

place now in Iran. And one of the most

mind-blowing things I've learned is that

there are three stages to this conflict.

Unfortunately, Professor Robert Pape,

who has two decades of being correct

with his predictions, gives a 75%

chance that Trump is about to escalate

to stage three. In this episode, we're

going to explain exactly what this

means.

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world. And uh yeah, let's do this.

Professor Robert P.

What the hell is going on in the world?

Now, I should ask I should ask first,

who are you and what have you spent the

last several decades of your life

studying and doing and how does that

relate to what's happening in the world

right now?

>> We are going through a crisis uh more

very intense right now, but it's a

crisis that we have been through before.

um 20 years ago with the Iraq war. Uh

even before that um we saw the bombing

of Gaddafi, we saw the reactions there.

Now I have been studying military

strategy, air power, international

terrorism, now terrorism inside the

United States and also political

violence in the United States. It's not

related to particular groups. So I've

been studying political violence for 40

years. What is the headline that people

need to be aware of when you've looked

at 30 years of these types of wars?

>> That bombs don't just hit targets, they

change politics.

>> What does that mean?

>> That means that before the bombs fall

and even as the bombs are falling now,

we tend to focus on the tactical success

of bombing. We tend to ask, did the

bombs hit the targets? And it's with the

smart bomb age, it's almost mesmerizing.

They hit the target and destroy the

target crater build crater dirt crater

concrete destroy buildings 90% of the

time. The problem is wars are not just

about the hardware. They're not just

about the military operation of putting

a bomb on a target. They're about

politics. And when the bombs start to

fall, the politics in both the target,

the enemy change and the politics in the

attacker, the initiator change. And that

threshold is the beginning of what I'm

calling the escalation trap because you

get at stage one tactical success. Often

what's missing here is the next

consideration which is politics. who

have you advised and at what level have

you advised them on strategy, war, etc.,

etc.

>> So, uh, in the when I finished my PhD,

uh, right away we started to fight the

first Gulf War, which was an allair

power war and I found my work from the

1980s suddenly more relevant than ever.

I was in the Washington Post, USA Today,

frontline uh, designing the stories

because, uh, we didn't have the talking

military heads at the time. And then I

get a call from the US Air Force and

they're asking me to come in and help

not just teach but to build the

curriculum. Then what happens as time

goes on, I end up I end up advising

every White House from 2001 to 2024 uh

including the first Trump White House.

>> I also heard that you've been running

simulations on a war with Iran.

>> Yep. The last class of every strategy

for 20 years. In fact, we did it just

last uh uh last um uh May uh just before

we started the bombing and 90 minutes.

So we the the class goes a whole quarter

uh strategy in all kinds of different

ways and we ended with the bombing of

Iran and what did that mean? That meant

we uh look took out the whole target. We

have the target set laid out. We have

the attack plans. We really go through

the bombing of Natans, Ford, uh Esfon

there. there's a number of these

facilities and so forth. Um, and then we

play out and then we look at what's

going to happen and what you see right

away is 90 plus% those B2s are going to

destroy those targets.

>> B2s being the aircraft

>> these stealthy aircraft that can

penetrate the airspace very few risk of

small risk of loss and then you see but

we don't know where the nuclear material

is. The whole point of this is not to

destroy a building. It's to get at the

5% 20% 60% enriched uranium. That's the

material for bombs. And last May, it was

very clear they had the material for 16

bombs. Now, not to

>> 16 nuclear bombs.

>> One six

>> nuclear bombs.

>> Yes, nuclear bombs. Not to produce them

all in a single week, but over a period

of months. And then at after we did that

simulation, we didn't know where a

single ounce was. And we weren't going

to know for months after. So at the end

of every I make some predictions. I say

what's going to happen? What's going to

happen is after about a year, we are

going to panic because that material

could be dispersed anywhere in Iran,

anywhere in that country. And that

country, look how big that is compared

to the United States.

could be dispersed anywhere now. And how

many of those are are actually

developing toward a bomb? We will not

know. So what will we do? Regime change.

>> From all of your years in I mean 31

years old you start teaching about air

power and and war in this regard. And

you are 65 now.

>> Yeah. What is the from everything you

know 30 30 plus years studying this

stuff Iran running simulations on Iran

advising the White House being a master

and probably arguably the most informed

person in the United States right now

about air attacks like the one the US

performing on Iran? What is the headline

that you're trying to send to the world

at this moment in time? Like what is it

we're missing? Because we're seeing

Trump come out and Trump say it's going

well. Everything's amazing. We've taken

out all their guys. What is what what

are we missing? We're missing that.

We're stuck in a trap of our own making.

I'll explain what that trap is. But the

key consequence of the trap is we're

losing control. We are losing control of

the situation. And what you were seeing

with President Trump is he's trying to

regain control. Now the problem is that

starting not just a week ago Saturday

but starting back in June when we took

out Natan's fore we started to lose

control and what are we losing control

of knowing where that nuclear material

is and we now have civilian satellites

and you can see them moving things. What

would they be moving around the nuclear

areas? I wonder you think they're moving

the the the the you know what are they

moving here? It's most likely going to

be that nuclear material cuz they're

planned

for this war just as we have except

they've been preparing for how to be

resilient, how to now lash back in

increasingly aggressive ways. They are

winning the escalation part of the war

and that's not an accident. this you can

see coming in stages.

>> But for anyone that doesn't know, we've

got leaders that have different levels

of sort of uh information and knowledge

here. I'm going to try and summarize

this and butcher it in the most uh

indelicate way I possibly can. So

earlier last year, last year the United

States suspected that Iran were very

close to enriching uranium. They're at

60%.

>> They're at 60 already.

>> If they get to 90%, they have a bomb. Uh

yes, but possibly even with the 60%

Stephen. It depends on just how good

their scientists are and we're not

really sure. So there's somewhere we're

at 60%, we're already very worried. You

go to 90, it's a gimme.

>> And then the United States dropped these

big bunker buster bombs. They flew those

B2 um airplanes in, dropped these bombs,

>> smashing up the site.

>> Yeah.

>> And then it felt like it was over. And

then we the United States went into

negotiations with Iran to try and get

some kind of deal done

>> to get the material we didn't get. You

see, why are we even talking to them? If

this is really obliterated the program,

why are we bothering to talk to them?

What exactly are we talking about here?

Do you notice the inconsistency here? So

when you say we thought it was over,

that's the public. Okay. Now the public

need to understand they're very busy

people. They're playing for the price of

eggs. Okay? So, this is they're not

supposed to be able to be up on us.

>> It's a good point. I've never thought

about.

>> Yeah. Why would we be talking to them?

>> Why Why are we talking to them? You see,

so right from the get-go, and and by the

way, all of the um it's the Israelis, uh

we have a thing called the Defense

Intelligence Agency. Um their reports

that were done after the bombing, uh

were leaked and they all say the same

thing, which is we created holes. We

probably shook these underground

chambers. We're not sure because we had

no eyeballs on that, but we have no idea

where that enriched uranium is. And we

have good reason to worry they got them

out because we actually have a satellite

picture that shows two days before we

bomb Ford, there's a bunch of trucks

moving stuff out. Gee, what do you think

you might move out if America's about to

bomb your site again? I I don't think

they're moving out the popcorn. So, um,

and it's pretty this material can be

moved in what look like large scuba

tank. They call them scuba tanks, but I

I I I try to show pictures of this, too.

They're they're they're actually like as

large as this table. So, you need

basically trucks. Trucks like that

satellite photography shows they took

out. So, so we can't say for sure, but

what you see is these are the

indications that you worry they've

dispersed the material even before we

hit the site. So,

>> and then we attack.

>> Yeah.

>> The United States attacks in February.

February 2026, which is

>> No. Feb. Yep. February 2026. February

2028. We start again. This time with

regime change. Notice we don't go even

after the physical m the nuclear

material. We don't know where it is. So

for the average person, the average

person would think if you take out the

supreme leader, then the war is over.

Drop the bomb on the person and the war

is complete.

>> Yeah. So let's talk about your your

Jenga thing here because what what I

find Stephen. So keep in mind I am

advising teaching some of the most

brilliant minds in the in the country.

Now a lot of these smart people though,

they don't know that they they've been

given like one inch deep briefings,

maybe even one sentence briefings. So

their image

is often like this and it's wrong. This

is what they think the regime looks

like. And they think that because

they've been given b they basically have

been consuming probably for years one or

two sentences about the structure. They

know there's a supreme leader. They

might know there's nuclear facilities,

missiles command. And so it looks like,

oh my goodness gracious, that if you

could just simply take out the right

node, you would be able to make this

whole thing fall down. Okay, but that's

the wrong image, Stephen. This is the

way smart people think. The problem is

this is a false image of most regimes,

even the bad ones, and certainly the

Iranian regime. Let me just focus on the

Iranian regime. The Iranian regime is

more like a matrix. It's more it's not

brittle the way this is. So you can keep

trying to pull things out but with a

matrix or uh I think the corporate

structures now are built to be adaptive

to change because you have so many

changes that happen. The structure needs

to adapt to change. That is basically

the structure of revolutionary regimes

going back to before World War I.

>> Okay. I want to ask a dumb question.

>> Y

>> when they took out the supreme leader in

Iran, I who's going to give out the

instructions?

>> The adaptive system adapts and fills in

the holes. It fills in the holes usually

with what's left. And in this case, the

supreme leader that we took out this

particular hole, this was the guy who

had two fought was they're called these

are religious edicts. It's like a people

uh edict

>> against nuclear weapons. It's a

religious he's the leader of essentially

the religion a little bit like the Shia

pope

>> and he um is actually issuing religious

doctrine

>> and as and that's called a fatwa and as

a religious doctrine he issued two that

said Iran should not have nuclear

weapons. The guy we killed was one of

the guard rails against nuclear weapons.

How does that He was He was developing

them in his

>> No, no, he's developing the enrichment

material. They hadn't been fashioned yet

that we know of as nuclear weapons.

Okay. So, we're worried about again this

enrichment going from 5% to 20%, to 60%.

But they hadn't actually taken that next

step, which is more of an engineering

step to develop the nuclear weapon.

Now we took out the person who at the

very tippy top was balancing the hawks

and doves and he had decided for decades

to issue this these fatwas. He did it

not just once but twice. His son who

took over the new supreme leader no

fatwa yet. That fatwa died with this

guy. So will the new leader come in? uh

it's not clear he's got the religious

authority to do anything like what his

father did. This is this is a very

different world and he's known to be way

more aggressive than his father. Uh he's

been in charge of the the bosi the uh

basically the uh the the police that

like to go and kill the protesters. He's

been the guy who's who's been very very

uh strongly uh supporting if not leading

that particular effort. And last night

it was announced that he has been

appointed as the new leader of

>> the new supreme leader.

>> Did did Trump expect this?

>> I think that he u expected it because he

kept trying to talk the Iranians out of

it. This is what he meant by uh last

week when President um Trump was saying

that he wanted um uh not this guy. He

specifically said not the sun. And then

he he had a problem because people kept

pushing him and they said, "Okay, well,

if you don't like the son, who who would

you pick?" And he said, "Well, it is a

problem because when we killed the

Supreme Leader, we killed around the

leader 20 or 30 others who we actually

thought were better. So, we actually

took out the best alternatives when we

killed the when the Supreme Leader was

killed." And every So, everybody's

scratching their heads going, "What are

we talking about here?" So, so we

actually helped the by killing the

competitors to the sun,

>> we made it more likely the sun. And so

what I'm trying to explain, Stephen, is

this adapts. Okay? So that you're not

really taking these uh pieces out.

You're rearranging

them and you are moving up in this case.

You're moving up

>> the next Supreme Leader. Well, it's

there's the Supreme Leader, but what

we're not showing here, you're see

you're seeing the target sets that are

being discussed. You're not seeing the

Revolutionary Guard.

>> What is that?

>> That is part of the army. The Iran has a

million men in arms. A million. That's

is that's as many as we have in our 300

million people. They have 92 million.

They have a million in arms. And about

150 or 200,000 of them are what are

called the revolutionary guards. These

are the most aggressive, the most uh

well-trained. Um these are the most

dedicated to the regime. The news the

son who just we just uh just took over

is the prime candidate for that group.

So when we took out a link here, it's

not just being replaced by another

It's being replaced by a very aggressive

individual who's backed by some of the

most aggressive part of that millionman

army. So this is what I was trying to

explain in my substacks where when you

take out the leader, you may kill the

leader, but you get in its place a

harder regime, a more resilient regime,

a tougher regime that wants to lash back

even more aggressively

>> because you killed dad.

>> You killed dad. And also, if you don't

lash back, how does the new leader get

his credibility with everybody else? If

he's a wimp, why doesn't he get a bullet

in the back of the head? You see the new

just because he's appointed a new

leader, he's still just just like when

you're the head of a new uh company like

let's say you take over a there's a

company that's in shambles and they get

rid of their CEO and they bring you on.

Okay? Well, you got to have a plan. You

see, and if you don't have a plan to

turn that thing around pretty soon, you

know, Elon Musk had to have the big

plan. If you don't have that plan, guess

what? You're out. Same here. So you have

incentive structure here for not just

replacing not just wimpy replacements

certainly not pro-American replacements.

You have incentives for lashing back

against the attacker. Which is why when

we tried to kill Gaddafi in 1986, he

lashes back and uh takes out Panama

Flight 103, killing 271 civilians, 190

Americans. When we try to take out the

Malloic regime to degrade it in uh March

99, Malloic lashes back, sending 30,000

ground forces into cleanse, that is get

rid of a million civilians in Kosovo. uh

this over and over.

>> I mean you have written books about

suicide terrorism.

>> That's right.

>> I've got one of them in front of me here

called dying to win. So I mean you know

a lot about this subject and this is one

of the concerns that actually my fiance

had said to me. She said I explained to

her I was like you know Iran they really

just have drones at the moment so I

think that's fine. And then she posed a

question to me. She was like yeah but

what about suicide terrorism?

>> Let me just explain. So here we are. It

is uh here is of course Iran and imagine

it's back in June. So I'm going to start

the story in June. This is the beginning

of the smart bomb the escalation trap

stage one. We hit uh Foro which is right

around there and then we hit Natans uh

and some other sites right around here.

And what does Iran do here? They lash

back. And who are they lashing back

against? Israel here. They have their

missiles focused on Israel. They're not

really hitting our bases here. They're

hitting Israel and they send 3,000

Israelis to the hospital, the most since

the 73 war. So, a long time. That is

stage one. Okay. Now, what happened when

in February 28? February 28, they're

lashing back a bit against Israel for

sure, but now they're at stage two. This

is why I published this piece today in

foreign affairs about how Iran's winning

the escalation war. So it just came out

just a few hours before we came on. And

what's happening here is called I call

it horizontal escalation because what

they're doing now is they're using

drones mostly a few missiles but mostly

drones. This was almost all missiles no

drones and they're using their drone

capacity which they have a lot of and

it's precision. These drones are like

precisiong guided weapons. They go right

to the target and what they're trying to

do is break this coalition.

>> For anyone that can't see at the moment

that they counted with horizontal

escalation against Saudi Arabia, the

UAE,

>> the coalition that had been formed

against them, they're trying to break

the coalition, you see.

>> Um, and they may well do that.

>> Why Why would they want to break that?

Why my friends are escaping Dubai at the

moment? And I've got a friend staying in

my house in Cape Town because he doesn't

want to be

>> because they want these countries to

kick the Americans out of their country.

>> Okay?

>> Get rid of the uh embassies. Get rid of

the bases. If you can then we don't have

the platforms to plaster them. You see,

these are our basically groundbased

aircraft carriers. I thought they were

they were attacking Saudi Arabia, for

example, because that will make Saudi

Arabia call Trump and say, "Listen,

stop, please. We're losing our tour

tourism. We're shutting our airports."

But well they do want to they are

threatening the tourism hitting the

economic nodes they're hitting uh hotels

uh they're hitting the airports what

they are trying to do is by threatening

tourism which it varies from 5% to 10%

of the GDP of these countries. It's not

trivial amounts here. They're basically

trying to drive wedges between these

countries and America. And America right

now, I don't see any movement through

Congress. I where where is this hundred

billion dollars going to the region to

make up for their lost tourism? I I

don't remember seeing that bill come

through Congress last week. So, um, I'm

just putting a little humorously to

point out these countries are losing a

fair bit right now and that tourism may

not come back for a while.

>> I've got friends that are that have

moved.

>> I've got friends that one of my friends

was thinking about leaving is now in my

house in Cape Town and he's been there

for 5 years. He's leaving and he's going

to move to America. I've got so many

friends that have called you

>> and imagine that we have 500,000

American citizens here and we have the

State Department on CNN. call this

number, we'll help you escape.

>> It's even the media in the UK, you see

it. It's like it's they're showing like

the BBC are showing like evacuations of

UK citizens as they're being greeted in

the airport, putting microphones.

>> So, this is putting a lot of pressure

here and there's something else that's

not widely known, which is there's a big

gap between what the leaders of the

countries want willing to support US and

Israel and their publics. You see, this

coalition that's been built against Iran

here is not clearly going down well with

Publix. These are publiclix. They may

not like Iran. They may be Sunni and

Iran Shia, but they don't want to be

part of an Israeli expansion plan where

Israel is going to conquer more and more

territory and so forth. And so this is

this is this is where the soft

underbelly here of this this isn't just

about the tourism. That's the short

term. The longer term is bottomup

pressure. Uh Sadat, he was a leader of

Egypt in the 1970s. He cut a deal with

uh Israel. It's called the Camp David

Accords. Peace uh uh for land. There was

but it was very favorable. Well, after

Saddat did that, the president of Egypt

in 1981 in a military parade, his own

security guards at the military parade

marched with their guns, came up to his

place, and they shot him dead.

So, you don't this is the real world

here. So, this is very, very dangerous

for these leaders. Now, that's stage

two. Now, what what happens if we decide

to have one of these limited ground uh

uh deployments here? Because after all,

we still don't know where this material

is.

>> What does that mean? So, for anyone that

doesn't know anything about the war,

what does a a ground deployment mean?

Cuz I I saw Trump being asked about this

on the plane yesterday, and he didn't

seem to deny it was going to happen. It

means you try to control a limited

amount of space, say the space around

Fordo or the the nuclear facility that

you bombed in June, and you would send

the say 82nd Airborne in to control the

space.

>> This I don't know what any of this stuff

is.

>> I see. So 82nd Airborne is is a division

that we have that's especially equipped

to uh go into hostile area and land and

control say airports control space.

Think about controlling all the size of

LAX.

>> Mhm.

>> So if you want to control LAX, you bring

in the 82nd Airborne. They will have

5,000 men and women, not just guys now.

And they will come in and they will

control that space LAX, but they will

also be doing this probably not for a

day, not for even a week. They're going

to have to spend weeks and weeks to

search for that material because we

don't know where it is and it's all

deeply buried and a lot of the stuff has

been the the entrances have been blown

up. So this means this means long-term

presence there. You might also take some

of the oil fields to cut off some of the

um money uh here for the uh uh for the

regime. That is where that book comes

in.

>> Do you think it's likely that America

will put boots on the ground, American

soldiers in Iran?

>> I think it's at least 50/50 if not

immediately. So people keep expecting

the escalation to be continuous and then

when there's a pause uh as there was

between June and February, they think,

"Oh, it's over. I'm going to go now

worry about something else." And then

believe me, there's plenty else to worry

about. So we got Minneapolis. We got

plenty to worry about here, even with

violence. But that's not how escalation

operates. Escalation

can happen have a ratchet effect that

has that's spaced out by months of what

seems like peace only to come right back

and you're stuck in that escalation

momentum

>> which is what we've seen

>> which is exactly what we've seen and for

the reason I'm telling you we don't know

where that nuclear material is that has

been the $64,000

weakness in this entire entire idea of

using air power not just in the last 10

days going back to June. It's not just

even about the regime change. It's about

how are you going to get that nuclear

material out. We had a deal this deal

with Obama. Trump did not like it. But

with that deal that held and Iran took

out almost all virtually just only a

tiny bit was left. They not enough for a

bomb. all out of the country and we

watched it. We monitored it. We had 24/7

cameras to monitor this. We had human

on-site inspections to monitor this.

2018, Trump just ripped it up, walked

away unilaterally, and from that point

on, it's been pedal to the metal by Iran

in upgrading that enriched uranium. And

that's how you got to that material that

would be enough for the 16 bombs. And

right now, we don't know where that is.

So

>> yeah,

>> stage one is

>> okay stage one you are beginning the

escalation trap. In this case it's a

smart bomb trap but it because it's with

smart bombs where you have tactical

success near perfect call it 100%

because it it really is but that doesn't

mean you have strategic success tactical

success plus strategic failure.

Then that strategic failure weighs on

you over time because the enemy still

got the thing that you wanted to get in

the first place. Now you do stage two,

which is regime change because after

all, you've already hit the targets. You

can make the rubble bounce, but what

more? That's why we didn't bomb them in

the last 10 days. We might go back and

bomb for some more. Okay, but we already

bombed that. So, so there's only

watching the bubble, but now we're in

stage two because what are your options?

The only other option is well let me get

rid of the regime because then the

regime I will control and the next

regime will just give us the material.

That's not working now. And you hear

today Trump is dancing trying to figure

out what to say. He doesn't want to say

the war's over. Okay. Doesn't want to

say the war is going on. But the bottom

line is we don't even he won't even be

clear about why we're fighting the war

anymore. And I'm telling you there's a

real problem. The nuclear material is

still there.

and it can still be fashioned into those

16 bombs over time. So this is where

then you get this horizontal escalation

where now they've really really working

on this because now it's a long war.

>> They start attacking their neighbors

>> and tried to make it a uh the

consequences go on for months. So just

imagine when are your friends exactly

going to move back? So let's say the war

is over tomorrow. Are they moving back

tomorrow? And when was uh last time uh

have you started to plan for your next

vacation in Dubai? I've been I was I was

planning speaking there in a month's

time, but it's been cancelled already.

>> Well, just Yeah, just starting to think

about that and you know, minor thing

like a drone attack could suddenly come

out of nowhere. You know, you're not

even you think it's I'm just trying to

point out that this is this is the world

now that a lot of people this was a

luxury market. This was the playground

of the rich and famous here. This is

really now changing and it may come back

a year or two from now, but it took two

years for air travel to come back after

911. Just think about that. this. Now,

we haven't gotten to stage three yet,

which gets to your girlfriend's point.

>> How do we move from stage two to stage

three?

>> Oh, well, because you still don't know

where the the nuclear material is,

>> and we don't have to move to stage

beyond uh to stage three this week. We

could do it a month from now, 6 months

from now. The problem is we've now put

in place a much more aggressive

leadership, much more aggressive regime.

We've taken away some of the uh what may

have been guardrails. who can't say for

sure for the nuclear weapon. This this

new regime much more likely and we've

given them every incentive to develop

the nuclear bomb. We're killing them.

So, so what exactly is their incentive?

They're they're their best way to

survive is to have a nuclear weapon. And

you'll say, "Well, we're going to kill

them." Well, we're already killing them.

So, we've taken away their incentive not

to have a nuclear weapon. So, we will

start to worry as each week goes by. Not

because we have great intel, not because

our human well, it's because of the

opposite. We don't have the exquisite

intelligence we had with the Obama deal

to know we had frozen the program. Now,

that we have Swiss cheese at best. And

what we will see in the holes of the

Swiss cheese are indications of nuclear

development. And that will make us worry

because what happens with the nuclear

weapon is it going to go to Hezbollah

and is Hezbollah going to help put it in

uh uh uh Hifa? What's going to happen

with these? Are we going to give is are

they going to give it to the Houthies?

So these are the kind of worries we will

have that will push us to the ground

options and that that is with stage

three

the retaliation approaches the homeland

>> is that realistic

>> if ISIS with its 30 to 40,000 uh

remember ISIS was not a state Iran is an

actual state with 92 million people so

if ISIS can fment commander directed

inspired suicide attacks and other

attacks in San Bernardino, just to kind

of bring it a little bit closer to home

here across the United States. Paris,

remember the big Paris attack. So why

exactly is Iran not if I mean ISIS was a

lot weaker than Iran?

>> Do you think in Iran at the moment

they're working on that? They're working

on a terrorist attack. Well, I don't I

think that my work tells me that it's

most likely to come with the presence of

the ground forces by us. Doesn't mean

it's it's a necessary condition, but

it's just most likely. Russia in 96 with

our help, we played a trick on them.

Assassinated the Chchin leader. It's a

leader of its republic in uh in Russia

called Cheschna Dunv. Only a million

people. And Russia um killed the guy.

And we actually have pictures of him

seeing the the missile hitting him

because we can put the cameras right in

the nose cone.

Then the new guy took over. His name was

Bazv. And he uh launched within three

months, not the next week, Operation

Jihad. And his operation jihad was much

more vicious tactics. Kick the Russian

forces. Russia is a big country. You

know, hundred almost 200 million people

compared to this little province of a

million. Kicked the Russians out after

three months. Launches a waves of

suicide attacks, massive kidnappings

here. This really went on for years and

years. So when you say, are they

planning it? I I don't think it's quite

right, Stephen. It's not like they have

the detailed plan they're about to

execute. they have the next wave of

possibilities

which would come I think most likely

with stage two so stage three so as this

is expanding as the war expands it will

go global

>> really

>> you are already seeing it global with

the supply chain and you're seeing it

with the oil so that's already happening

so um what Iran said today the the uh

response to Trump's press conference

today that just literally happened

before we came on is okay we will allow

Gulf States your oil tankers to come

through if you kick the Americans out.

So kick the Americans out and we'll let

you pass.

>> If you don't,

>> if you don't, we got drones. So they

didn't put that in there, but everybody

knows they got drones.

>> And again, for if you were explaining

this to a 16-year-old.

>> Yeah.

>> Just to keep it super simple, there's

this passageway across the water where a

lot of the oil tankers go.

>> Yep. It's straight of Hormuz.

>> Hormuz. And it sounded like the tankers

are refusing to go through there at the

moment.

>> Sure. Because one has been hit, but it

only takes one to be hit with a drone.

Only one. Because the people driving

those tankers here, they're doing it for

a paycheck, not a bullet. They're not

really wanting to die for this. This

isn't a nationalist cause to ship the

the oil.

>> Explain why it matters to the world. If

if oil doesn't go through this straight

of Hummus, what matter? What happens?

>> Yeah. Well, we can talk about it in like

technical terms, but the big thing to

say is this is what's going to increase

the price of gas at the pump and it's

already gone up. When you cut the flow

of the oil, it has global effects. It

doesn't just affect this little region

here. It doesn't just affect China over

here. It affects everybody. And that's

why the Europeans are starting to freak

out because this they're already every

government worries about we talk about

affordability. That's about to change.

>> And is this your point about how it

changes the politics at home because

people someone goes to the pump today,

they go why is the oil higher?

>> That's right. Why is the we just came we

we now have 4.4% unemployment. Um if we

and and President Trump was trying to

say it's all getting better, the

interest rates are going down. Well,

that all predicated on us not having

inflation. You see, when the oil is cut,

the inflation goes up, the affordability

becomes a problem. That is what is

panicking a lot of the businesses right

now because they're going to lose

business and and it's a problem of risk.

It's not just about the damage. So, a

little a few of these drones can have an

inordinate effect on risk. Now let's

bring in another piece which is Russia

we find out is providing targeting

intelligence to Iran much the way we

provide targeting intelligence to

Ukraine to hit uh uh targets in Russia.

And what does that mean? That means

those drones which are precisiong guided

now can more easily find exactly which

ship to hit. So

>> we know that Russia are doing that.

because we've got it pretty well

confirmed from Yeah. It's you would hear

much more push back here. And what

you're hearing from Secretary Hegsth is

not it's not happening. You're saying,

"Oh, no. Well, let's not overw worry."

No, it's happening. And they're worried

because that's the that's the again the

dancing around. They're not denying the

fact that it's actually happening.

>> I think Trump actually when asked said

something words to the effect of, "I

wouldn't blame them because that's what

we do to them."

>> Exactly. Exactly. And why is he talking

to Putin today? He's not talking He was

just on the phone with Putin before he

did his press conference. What's he

talking to Putin about? Bad intel, I'm

sure, and maybe cutting a deal, which is

we'll deny the Ukrainians the intel if

you deny. You see, this is the this is

this is the the cascading effects of the

politics dominates the tactics.

>> And that's exactly what Trump said. He

said on March the 7th when asked about

Russia teaming up with Iran on

intelligence, he said, "If we asked

them, they'd say, "We do it against

them." Wouldn't they say that we do it

against them?

It's almost justifying it.

>> Trump often just speaks his mind. Uh

sometimes he kind of hides things, but

some often he speaks his mind. And what

you're seeing here is of this is the

natural thing. Russia is uh what's good

for the goose, good for the gander.

They're doing the same thing to us that

we've done to them. And they have and

they're doing it to hurt us, you see. So

rather than just spasmotically or spasm

response here, which we often think the

the foes we're up against are stupid. We

essentially think they're dumb. We call

that irrational. But what's really

happening, Stephen, is um since the

Vietnam War, we have been up against

foes that have understood something

about America, which is the way to get

at us is polit politically. Make it a

long war. Play the politics. You can't

go toe-to-toe with us on the

battlefield. We'll just clean their

clock over and over. They don't often

try. They don't go toe-to-toe with us.

We lost the Vietnam War with never

losing a battle. How did we lose? We

lost the long game. 58,000 dead, no end

in sight, a forever war. What are we

doing this for? That is how the North

Vietnamese won. And that's how the

Afghan Taliban won. That's how the bad

guys typically beat us. They don't

always win, but the bottom line is we

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>> What do you think happens next? If you

had to, no offense sitting. Yeah.

>> If you had to predict what you think

happens next, what would you predict?

>> Well, I say this at the end of the

foreign affairs article that just

literally came out a couple hours ago,

which is President Trump is on the horns

of a dilemma and he has no golden

offramp. He's looking for offramps, but

there's no golden one where he comes out

politically ahead. So, he's got a

choice, sometimes called a Hobbesian

choice, a Hobsonian choice where you cut

your losses, accept political loss now.

And right now, if he pulls back, and

what does it mean to pull back? You got

to pull your forces back. It's not

enough to say you're just doing a pause.

If you want to stop, if you want to stop

for real, you take those aircraft

carriers and you send them out

somewhere. You send them to Asia. You

send them here. You got to actually make

you got to do something here. So, choice

one is you stop your bombing campaign.

You cut your losses. You do your best to

say we just wanted to destroy missiles

even though nobody will believe it.

Okay. Um but that means you accept a a

modest loss now. Or the other is you

double down and you go on for more

weeks. go on for more weeks hoping

you'll kill this leader and maybe the

next one won't be so bad or you'll

you'll have some other sort of uh

outcome that you can't imagine. And

Trump is nothing I call him a chaos kid.

He thrives in chaos and he often comes

out of this with something happening

like when you know sort of down the road

you didn't expect it. He probably didn't

expect it. But in this case, the price

is more likely going to be a political

failure of the first order because we

have the midterms coming. So if if he

he's got a choice, stop now, cut your

losses, accept a limited political

defeat, or double down, go on for a few

months, go through more stages of this

uh smart bomb trap I'm explaining, and

you're really now in Lynden Johnson

territory. Remember I mentioned before

where in Vietnam he kept escalating,

kept moving up the escalation ladder.

Every rung he said, "Well, no, we have

escalation dominance. We're just going

to double down. We're going to hit them

harder the next time. We're going to do

this the next time." Sound familiar? And

then what happened is it became

absolutely clear uh that this was going

nowhere and the 68 election came was

coming and Lynden Johnson's own

Democrats said, "Mr. president, we can't

ride your horse into that. We got to do

something. And the problem is they

didn't pull the plug fast enough here.

That's how they lost. They don't they

they don't pull the plug fast enough.

So, you end up having a bigger loss

later.

>> When you talk about the the um

underbelly that the United States has

where they can't prolong these wars, am

I right in thinking this is basically a

function or a a consequence of living in

a democracy where every four years

>> I I think it's a function of a war of

choice. So when we were attacked in

Pearl Harbor, we were attacked.

>> We were reluctant to get in World War II

and we were we didn't get in until we

were actually struck at Pearl Harbor.

That was enough to really make us angry.

We were pissed off as a country. Okay?

And we were going to get payback not

just for a month, but we were getting

some real payback here. And that's how

vicious that island hopping campaign was

and why it was so vicious here. And that

went on and on. And when we ended the

war um in in dropping those atomic

bombs, 22% of the American public wanted

us to forget the Japanese surrender and

drop more atomic bombs. 22%. We are that

angry. So when we are attacked first, we

have the politics and our advantage.

When we do a war of choice, we can make

up all the reasons why it was a good

idea to start throw the first punch.

They were going to hit us. We were gonna

But when we throw that first punch

first, that's a war of choice. And this

puts the politics in the other camp's

advantage. And that's the problem that

we're facing here. Iran didn't hit us

first. They didn't hit us first in June.

They didn't hit us first before that.

>> So on this point of war of choice,

>> y

there's really two questions I have

front of mind. One is was Trump right

that if he didn't attack then they would

have enriched uranium they would have

made a nuclear weapon and that would

have put not just the region but the

world at danger in your view and then

the second one is this sort of ongoing

debate around the role of Israel in this

war and I think it was Marco Rubio that

came out and I think maybe accidentally

said that the reason why they attacked

Iran was because they heard that Israel

were about to attack Iran.

>> So, so let's go back to the Friday, the

day before we start the bombing

campaign. This is February 27, literally

3:15 Washington time. That's when Trump

makes the go decision. But what's in his

what what is he choosing between? He has

an offer on the table from Iran for a

better deal than the Obama deal for

America. And it is uh it's not

absolutely perfect. They still want to

have some minor enrichment to but that

uh verification lots of things here. Now

maybe it's still not perfect but

President Trump has a choice on that

Friday afternoon. He can go back and he

can work this deal. He can, you know,

after all dealmaker, right? Let's let's

assume he's good at dealmaking. So he

can go back and work the deal. But

that's not what he does. What he does is

he throws that deal away. And also the

supreme leader when he killed that's the

supreme leader was on board with that

deal too. And what do we do instead? We

we go through regime change. So the

choices here Stephen were before we got

to stage two we were in stage one. Stage

one we had hit fore it it would there

were were negotiations and Iran's coming

up with a better deal than the Obama

deal. And what does he do? he goes to

stage two instead. So I don't think this

is this this story you're hearing they

were gonna do X Y or Z is there was a

deal on the table and

>> why did Rubio say that then? Why did he

say that they attacked? Because Israel

were going to attack.

>> Okay, I want to play this video which is

what I'm referring to.

>> Okay,

>> if we stood and waited for that attack

to come first before we hit them, we

would suffer much higher casualties. And

so the president made the very wise

decision. He we knew that there was

going to be an Israeli action. We knew

that that would precipitate an attack

against American forces. And we knew

that if we didn't preemptively go after

them before they launched those attacks,

we would suffer higher casualties and

perhaps even hire those killed. And then

we would all be here answering questions

about why we knew that and didn't act.

>> So what that shows you is that it's the

tail wagging the dog that Israel is

going to attack. as I'm saying just

happened in June. It's a replay of what

happened in June. Israel may well have

We don't know why Israel decided to

attack and kill the Supreme Leader. It

was actually Israeli bombs who killed

the Supreme Leader. Uh and also those

other replacement leaders as well. But

Israel may well have been thinking that

my goodness, Trump is getting too close

to a deal. That's what happened in June.

Trump was on the edge of a deal with

Iran and then Israel goes and kills the

negotiators. You see? So just think

about that for a moment. They're ne

Trump is negotiating with the Iranians

and then they say, "Well, okay, come

back the next day and what is there the

next day? Israeli bombs killing them."

>> So I mean, that's not a good that's not

a great way to handle a partnership.

>> Well, it's just it's just showing you we

had another choice. We could have told

Israel not to do it. We could have told

Israel if you do this, we're going to

cut off all your military aid for the

next three years. That would be put some

pressure on Israel. now then Trump would

have to pay a price politically. So I'm

not saying that's an easy thing to do.

Don't get me wrong, but we need to

understand that that Trump these are the

these are the pressures for escalation

in the escalation trap. So I'm trying to

explain why this isn't just randomly

happening, Stephen. It's not like, oh my

goodness, I can't follow what's

occurring. So that's why when Trump says

in today's briefing uh talks about

stopping the air campaign, is he going

to stop Israel's campaign? That's the

question that did not come up today.

It's in my I put on my accent. The one

of the big questions that did not come

up is President Trump, are you going to

call Netanyahu and tell him to stop

bombing Iraq?

>> Does Trump control Netanyahu in your

view?

>> Well, again, it's about pressures here.

It's about what are the uh what are the

ways you you you you don't it's not

about a matter of like a personal

loyalty relationship. This is politics

of the first order. That's what I'm

trying to explain. So for President

Trump to stop Netanyahu from doing this,

this will be paying a price. He will

have a there are a big part of his MAGA

constituency is very pro not just Israel

pro-Netanyahu

version of Israel. So, this is the

tension in and the politics that I'm

trying to explain, which is why you

don't really want to start the trap in

the first place.

>> And I asked you a second ago, no fence

sitting, what happens next in this war

based on everything you've studied for

the last 30 years, the 20 years of doing

>> I think it's more likely than not that

maybe not in the next week or two. I've

said uh on my substack it's more likely

than not we will get to a limited um uh

ground deployment here because of the

fizzle because of the I'm keep saying

because of the the enriched material

that is floating around and we know it's

dispersing. We know it's dispersing. We

don't know where it is. And there could

be literally hundreds of rooms not much

bigger than this size, maybe two or

three times this size that we're in.

That could be used to uh fashion an an a

fat man style a bomb. Not to

miniaturaturize it, to put on a warhead.

That would be more sophisticated. But if

what you want to do is you want to have

a Hiroshima bomb that can kill 75,000

people in a second or 10 seconds, that

is what they are in the the the the

that's what we're talking about here.

We're not talking about can they put

miniaturaturize the bomb to put it on

the nose cone of a war of a missile.

This is they don't need to. That's very

sophisticated stuff. We couldn't do that

for 10 years.

>> So I guess there's two there's two

questions that come to mind. The first

is to understand someone's behavior, you

have to like understand their

motivations. And I I think a lot about

like where Trump is in his

career, legacy, how how much that

matters to him. It appears from what

I've seen, the whole thing around him

wanting to win the Nobel Peace Prize,

the the Peace Board, the being the

president that stops all, it appears

that he's thinking about how he's going

to be remembered. And when I'm looking

at some of his interviews recently, he's

saying things like, "I don't want it to

be the case that in 10 years time or in

5 years time, the US have to go back in

again because like I didn't do a good

job." And it made me start to believe

that actually one of his one of the

reasons why we might escalate this war

further from a United States perspective

is because

legacy changes in hindsight. And if we

think about George W. Bush,

>> I think you're putting your finger on

it, Stephen.

>> George W. Bush's legacy now is like

completely tarnished because of this one

war and actually how it ended.

>> Yeah. But also

>> it's a mistake in hindsight.

>> But also now mirror image that to the

Iranians. Why aren't they thinking about

their legacy?

>> Think about that for a moment. Why would

the Supreme Leader 86 years old decide

he's not going to take too many more

precautions? How many more months does

he had cancer apparently? How many more

months does he got? How does he want to

go out? How does he really want to go

out? What's he want to be remembered

for? A coward or does he want to be

remembered as somebody who stood up for

Iran, the revolution, the whole thing he

built his whole life for? You talk about

Trump where so when I get into behind

when the cameras go off and I get a

chance to uh again, let's just say go to

the West Wing. I'm not seeing people

being picky, minor, petty. I see them

worried about their legacy.

the national security adviserss, their

assistance. They're worrying about their

legacy. Do they want to go down in in

the history of American history as X, Y,

or Z? And this is how humans are. It

doesn't stop uh with like how much money

do you have? It's what's going to happen

with your legacy.

>> So with that in mind, if you think Trump

is legacy motivated,

does that increase the

>> in part? I want to be careful in part.

it's always he can't be reelected. So

I'm like that's not motivating him

because you know you play differently if

you think you can win a second term

which I knew would be important to him.

But the if he is legacy motivated now

when you think about which direction

he's going to grow go in it does appear

on the balance of things that he's not

going to want it to be left a mess. And

the biggest mess that could really

embarrass him and his legacy uh in with

international is if Iran has a nuclear

bomb and they detonate a test say next

September.

Let's just imagine what would happen

next September. So people need to think

about see the discussion of Iran and

nuclear bombs here is not very

strategic. It's to scare you. It's oh

they're going to get a bomb and the

first one's going to go on Tel Aviv. The

second one's going to go on New York. I

don't think that's the sequence. Why

would they? Why? If they're willing to

commit suicide to take out Tel Aviv,

they don't need 16 bombs. Okay? If

they're willing to have their entire

population destroyed by they just need

one bomb, take out Tel Aviv, they're

done, right? That's not what's going on.

They're following the North Korea plan.

The North Korea plan that North Korea

figured out when we went through this

with North Korea in the '9s. Okay? the

very same thing except we didn't do the

bombing cuz cuz it was not going to we

didn't get we we avoided the trap. What

they want is multiple bombs at the same

time. So what they want to do if they

can do this is have say five bombs

working at the same time and the first

bomb goes off as a test in the

mountains. In the mountains and then

what do we say? Oh, they blew it.

They're stupid. They blew their one test

and then they do a second test.

Still in their mountains. Okay. When we

dropped the first bomb on Hiroshima,

wasn't clear we had any more. When we

dropped the second one, nobody needed to

wait for a third or fourth. Nobody

really we they knew more would come. You

see what I mean? So with Iran the this

is again we're talking about now um you

know let's let's call it the brown belt

or black belt strategy here that they

are and notice they have been very smart

in their escalation.

What you would do is the North Korea

strategy which is again you want

multiple bombs and then you want to do

some tests and even if one doesn't quite

work you want to have another. You want

to have multiple bombs so that you can

do multiple tests. You see, and that is

how North Korea basically stopped Trump

trying to kill the leader. So notice

that Trump wants to say it was just his

winning personality because, you know,

Trump is so charming here. But North

Korea now has 60 working nuclear weapons

as, you know, best we can tell. And the

idea that uh we're going to start

killing leaders in North Korea anytime

soon, I'm not sure that's going to

happen.

>> They're kind of immune now, right? Well,

and notice that Ukraine had a bunch of

nuclear weapons in the 90s, gave them

up, and there's a lot of people in

Ukraine right now are saying, "Boy, I

wish we had those nuclear weapons back

or else we wouldn't be fighting this

war." So, you start to look at the

history. Why does America have nuclear

weapons here? Are we an evil country and

the reason we have is because we're

evil? We want it for our security. So,

why doesn't Iran want it for their

security? So, this is the strategy part

that we have to the politics. Steve and

I keep trying to talk about.

>> So you're saying your prediction is that

we're going to move to stage three where

Trump

>> Okay, I'll go 7525.

>> 75% which way?

>> That we will put we will send in some

ground forces to get that dispersed

material. Um the only 25% would be if

somehow magically the Iranians gave it

to us.

>> So

>> So that's where the 25% comes from

because there is some chance

>> that there there's some I don't want to

I mean we live in the real world um

here. So I but I think the problem we're

going to face is it's going to become

more and if you're in Iran right now

exactly why aren't you fashioning the

nuclear weapon? We're already killing

you. We can pause for months and say we

won't kill you and then you wake up one

day and you're dead. This we've done

this movie now several times on Iran.

Your best chance of survival is a

nuclear weapon. And so we now know that,

our intel knows that, Israel now knows

it, we've taken these options. Uh so

unless Trump will make a deal, that's

that 25%. So I I think if he makes a

deal, then there's a chance that Iran

will go forward here.

>> If the 75% path plays out,

>> Yep.

>> we put boots on the ground.

>> Yep.

>> What happens then?

>> Now we're at stage three. Now we've

moved to stage three because we have to

search very not just so we will start by

deploying ground forces in a very

limited area. Say we're going to go to

Esphon it's called that's that's the the

uh do we have a

>> I mean you could try and write on there

does that work?

>> Um the thing I'm trying to explain yeah

assume this is Iran. Yeah. Okay. We will

start by putting in um a small footprint

and again we have several options here

to do it. Um and so the hunt will be for

the enriched material. But let's say

that we even find it Stephen, how do we

know that in the intervening almost a

year since the bombing, 10 months since

the bombing, how do we know they haven't

enriched more somewhere else? Because

this is what happened with um the WMD

and Iraq and Sodom Hussein in the '9s

through 2003. We had inspectors in. We

could never be sure. There wasn't

material.

And the problem was over time the fear

got worse and worse and worse. And the

fear is a nuclear handoff or the

radiological handoff. You hand off some

of that material to Hezbollah to the

Houthis. They

>> who are Hezbollah and the Houthies?

They're like

>> they are terrorist groups.

>> They we call them terrorist groups. Um

and the uh and Hezbollah uh which is

this famous terrorist group started in

1982. How did Hezbollah start? Where'd

it come from?

>> Is it the CIA again?

>> No, it's Israel. Israel invades southern

Lebanon in June of 82 with 78,000 combat

soldiers. 3,000 tanks and armor

vehicles. So, think about that. That's

like invading Chicago with 78,000. So,

just or LA with 78,000.

Okay? So, they invade uh southern

Lebanon with 78,000. Israel does. One

month later, Hezbollah is born as

resistance movement. So, Hezbollah was

born out of resistance to Israel. They

have hated Israel from the beginning

because that's how they were born. You

see? So what you have is you have a

group that's hot been radical since and

since 82 this has been going on since

82.

Israel just can't put that country that

Hezbollah group out of business. And

what are they doing literally this week?

They're trying to depopulate this

Beirut, the city of Beirut. Because what

happens when you go up against terrorist

groups, which we haven't described, but

the terrorist group here is like a group

that's in a sea of people. Okay? and you

keep saying all I want to do is get rid

of that terrorist group. The problem is

that in all that effort, military effort

to get rid of the terrorist group, you

do kill them, but they regenerate and

they regenerate and they regenerate just

as Hezbollah has for God 45 years

almost. Okay. And so what do you then

push to do? Get rid of all the people.

>> So you think I'll just genocide?

>> I don't want to use those terms because

I've written about that. That's a that

that has certain very spec. So that's a

whole conversation here. But I just want

to point out how is it that Israel got

itself into the idea they were going to

cleanse expel

um large portions of the 2 million out

of Gaza. That happened because they got

into stage three of the escalation trap

in Gaza. So this isn't just about

America. So we're only talking about the

escalation frameworks with respect to

this one conflict. really it applies

much more broadly. I've developed these

since I taught for the Air Force because

I needed to find a way to help our

government, our military understand

how the transition from the bombing or

the military piece

to the outcome. And what's in the middle

is the military, the bombs change

politics. They change politics in the

enemy. They change politics for us. For

us, we don't want to lose. And that's

why we got stuck in a for in two forever

wars. Um, and now we may well just get

right back into another one. Not because

Trump wants to. He's being sucked into

it.

>> So, what happens after stage three?

>> After stage three, this is what America

has faced in Vietnam. And President

Biden faced this in spades here. When

you try to pull out after you're in

stage three and end these ongoing

conflicts here, usually it ends poorly

for your legacy. And you saw that with

Lyndon Johnson. And you saw that with um

President Biden. President Bid actually

President Trump is the one who was

negotiating with the Taliban to pull

out.

>> But President Trump wouldn't leave. Not

leave. He didn't leave before. Who who

did he hand it off to? He handed it off

to Biden. Biden pulled out. And what has

Biden's legacy been? It's been negative

ever since. If you look at his opinion

polls, pres President Biden, you will

see he was riding high until he withdrew

from Afghanistan and he never recovered.

Yes, inflation hurt too. The bigger hit

was the Afghanistan problem. And this is

where this is why President Trump is

really stuck. You see, he's on that

horns of the dilemma. Does he want to

accept the short-term price, which is

real, or does he want to go and double

down? And then you face the potential

long-term price of becoming LBJ

and President Biden.

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>> I have to ask then, you know, you said

when you're in the White House, they're

very smart people.

>> Yeah, pretty smart. Presumably Trump

knew this stuff or someone around him

knew that by the way when you drop bombs

these sort of very specific bombs we

have now that can hit a hit a very

narrow target and take out a leader um

you get into an escalation trap. Surely

he knew this.

>> I believe I believe General Kaine told

him almost this this in so many words. I

believe and I don't have the exact

evidence for it but we have some

inklings of it.

>> What do you think he thought was going

to happen? I think he I I've described

Trump um as the ultimate chaos kid.

There are people who thrive in chaos.

They feel the best when they're in a

chaotic situation. And I think that he

um believes he can navigate the chaos

better than anybody else. So what I want

to the the answer to the question I was

looking for is what did he think was

going to happen? Did he think I'll drop

these bombs, Hermione will be out,

someone else will come in, then we'll

negotiate with that guy and then we'll

get a better deal? I think that's not

quite I think that's too specific.

People keep looking for that. In my

experience here, it also um is that's

too narrow of a way to understand what I

think happened here. And again, we're

reading quite a bit into very few tea

leaves here because this will come out

over time. But um I believe that what

you're seeing with President Trump is he

likes to do what's called mixing it up.

He wants to get the chaos going and then

he um he reads the chaos very well and

and when it's um a media storm, man,

there's very few people that have beaten

him. Just think about that. That's why

he's president twice. He's he's beaten

quite a few black belts at this, right?

But this is a different story. So if you

take that same MO and you apply it to

political violence, now you have these

other actors. You have this other set of

momentum. you have Israel uh playing

this big role. You have the Iranians

playing a big role. You're suddenly uh

now have more players that can trap you

in the chaos. And this is I think what

has happened. Um now with Venezuela, he

also went through the first stage of the

trap. And notice that with Venezuela, he

just said, "Oh yeah, we're just going to

forget about developing the oil." No

second stage. Okay. So in in with

Venezuela, there's a reason why that has

paused. It's because he didn't go to

stage two because the oil company said,

"We're not going to die for you to build

that oil." So he is basically um he took

out one person, just literally one

person. That person's not even dead yet.

And he's not really developing any of

those oil fields in Venezuela. They're

just not being developed.

>> He said he has a good relationship with

the Venezuelan government. Now the

>> as long as because he's not doing any

the the Venezuelan government, he's

leaving them in place. He's basically

declaring victory and moving on.

>> He removed Maduro, kept the others in

and it sounds

>> and kept the regime.

>> It sounds like that might have somewhat

inspired his move to Bomaran because it

appears on the surface that Venezuela

kind of didn't go too badly. It kind of

was a uh political victory.

>> Chaos Kida chaos

>> snatched him out of bed with his snatch.

But then he stopped. So this would be

the equivalent would be last June. So

last June, okay, he went through stage

one and he tried to stop. What made the

difference here? It wasn't Trump. It was

the intel he got from Netanyahu. The

phone call from Netanyahu, which is uh

President Trump getting ready. We're

about to assassinate the supreme leader

and about 20 of his associate the other

leaders here. you decide how you want to

handle this, but we're we're taking off.

And so that is that did not happen with

with uh with um uh the Maduro regime. So

just imagine that there was another

country that had after Trump took out

Maduro decided they were going to keep

assassinating u the regime in uh

Venezuela. Now you would be in a

different story.

>> You made a quite famous prediction,

professor. You predicted in 2009 that

America's era as the world's only

superpower was ending.

>> Oh yes, and I think that is true. We

haven't talked about China, but I

believe that since Trump has come into

office, he's making China number one.

His tariffs have done nothing but um uh

help China. Uh China's been on charm

offensive since the tariffs have have

been and and they're picking up all the

pieces. I was just spent two weeks in

China in June while we were bombing um

Iran. I said I had to learn how to do

social media. I toured Advanced

Industries in China for two solid weeks.

One of the most amazing visits uh trips

I've ever had in my whole career and it

was stunning. So Stephen, since co

almost nobody has gone to uh China. Now

if they have they've gone to Beijing or

Shanghai. They haven't gone to Wuhan.

They haven't gone to Shenshen. Visited

the BYD uh electric car factories. Um

seeing the robots that are now doing the

metallergy and you can't see it very

well on the web because China's keeping

it to themselves. They don't want to

brag about it. They're going they're

motoring ahead. So Wuhan, to give you an

example, Wuhan is kind of like

Pittsburgh. It's a bigger version of

Pittsburgh. It's an old steel area.

That's not Wuhan today. Wuhan today is

the AI. It's it's developing not just a

robotic company. They're uplifting 9

million people in Wuhan. Their uh

medicine is improved. Their

infrastructure is improved. They have

more construction jobs than ever before

because they have to build so much to

uplift the whole 9 million people. This

is what Pittsburgh should have been and

hasn't been. And I know I'm from Western

Pennsylvania. It's heartbreaking to me

to watch what's happened to Pittsburgh

over the last 30 or 40 years. Wuhan,

exactly the same trajectory. An old

steel uh um city is now one of the lead

areas here in they have a robotic

Silicon Valley there that I visited um

and so forth.

>> And why does this matter? Why does it

matter if the US are no longer the

world's superpower? What what then does

history tell us is the consequence of

that?

>> The consequence is first of all you get

enormous tension here uh for violence.

So when you see big hegemonic shifts

>> hegemonic

>> uh that means when one leader the the

world's number one becomes uh replaced

by another bad things happen. This is

what happened how you got the wars

between Britain and France when they

were fighting theirs wars. This is how

you got world war essentially world war

I because of the the rise and fall of

Germany versus uh uh Russia versus

Britain. So these rising and fall they

make a huge difference. Doesn't always

happen. The one time it was peaceful was

when America replaced Britain as number

one. So just think about that. But other

times have been very tense.

>> So how does China feel that the US are

now at war with the Middle East? So,

what's interesting is to get ready for

coming on here. I listened to the All-In

podcast, and I hope that's okay to talk

about somebody else's podcast. I love

that.

>> I think they're brilliant, by the way. I

love it. But what they said just in the

most recent is that that Trump's playing