With "Terrible" Economic Data, Treasury Bonds at 5.3% are a Bargain, argues Jared Dillian
807 segments
joined today once again by Jared Dillian
of the Daily Dirt Dap and the new book,
The Awesome Portfolio. Jared, good to
see you.
>> Good to be here, man. Thanks for having
me.
>> Yeah, you too. Jared, looking at the
front page of Bloomberg, global bond
sell-off sends yields to highest level
since 2008.
What do you make of the bare market in
bonds that we've had? The fact that
these long-term government bond yields
can't really seem to catch a bid. Your
thoughts? Uh how much time do we have?
>> As much time as you got.
>> This is uh this is a very long story. Um
so I am of the belief that there is a
mind virus going through people in the
market. Um
people believe that deficits are out of
control. People believe that inflation
is out of control. we are really back to
where we were in the late '7s when
people were calling bonds certificates
of confiscation.
Um the reality is is that inflation is
not that high. It's come down quite a
bit in the last couple of months. It
continues to come down. Um yes, it's
been above the target for 5 years. Yes,
Wars did say it's a firm target. I don't
understand the obsession currently when
the rest of the economic data is
actually terrible. Right? So, we've had
two week payroll reports. The estimate
for the next one is 55,000 jobs and we
have a 66% chance of a rate hike. It's
madness. All the other data has been the
like I said, inflation is coming down.
Uh before I walked in here, we got we
well we had Chicago PMI um the day of
the Jackson Hole, which was 10 points
lower than expected. Um Jolts was
terrible today. Um
ISM was slightly below expectations, but
the point is is that not only is
inflation not a concern, it looks like
we are entering a slowdown in growth.
Right? Getting back to the deficits
point, everybody is worried about supply
of bonds. Um,
you know, in absolute terms, the deficit
is $2 trillion, which is a scary number,
but it's only 6% of GDP. And back in
2010, it was 12% of GDP.
And people showed up at the auctions.
Uh, the auctions had bid to covers of
three or higher. So it's very easy to
measure the supply of bonds, but nobody
ever talks about the demand for bonds,
right? So if we had a big riskoff event
triggered by some unknown catalyst, but
if stocks were down 20%. Trust me,
interest rates would be much lower,
right? People would show up and buy
bonds. So I am I am not worried about
the bond market at all. I'm insanely
bullish. I think 5 whatever on, you
know, 52, 53 on 30 years is an
incredible deal. I think 47 on 10 is an
incredible deal. Uh I personally have
moved a huge portion of my money into
bonds in the last month. Um and this is
this is a very long-term trade for me.
I'll hold this for three to five years,
but I I am a I am a big believer in
this.
>> And you think so you're bullish on
bonds. Do you think that the narrative
of that bond yields are going to go to
the the moon is he's gotten totally out
of hand?
>> Oh my god. Yeah. I mean, so somebody
just sent me I guess Ray Dalio wrote a
piece in Time magazine about Bonds. Like
you said, it's on the Bloomberg front
page every single day. Like every single
day, people are obsessed with it. Um,
and you know, I'm a sentiment guy, so
when I see stuff like that, like, you
know, I'm just
>> naturally
going the other way.
>> Yes. And the point you make about supply
is interesting because there's a video
I've seen of Paul Vulk or you know, rest
in peace, legendary Fed chair, probably
1978, 1979, somewhere around there, you
know, maybe early early 80s, but you the
the long-term yields were at like 12%.
And he was asked, "Why are yields so
high?" and he said, "Well, the
government is having to compete out in
the market and there's just not enough,
you know, there's just so much bonds
that are being issued, the private
sector, the government, and obviously
what we have now is
>> 10 to 50 times higher in terms of of
issuance. So, I think that demand is
going to catch up. It It definitely is.
It is interesting. You said 2010. I
think that, you know, you're totally
right that everyone wanted bonds in
2010. I think, you know, the
unemployment rate then was a lot higher.
We came out of a financial crisis when
everyone lost money from taking too much
credit risk and bonds rallied. Then
there was all this regulation passed to
make credit risk uh unattractive to take
and it incentivized taking duration
risk, interest rate risk, bond risk.
>> Yeah.
>> Now, you know, we we come out everyone
in fixed income lost so much money from
buying buying duration. So, I think it
it is a slightly different scenario, but
I'm inclined to agree with you.
>> Yeah. One point I do want to bring up is
that a lot of this AI issuance is
weighing on the bond market. So, you
know, when Google comes to market with a
$40 billion bond issue, that puts a lot
of pressure on the market. So, you were
talking about Vulkar basically talking
about the crowding out effect. Yes.
>> You know, the government borrows first
and the private sector borrows second.
But, you know, if they're if if you're
getting a trillion in bond issuance out
of the private sector, that obviously
puts a lot of pressure on yields, too.
>> Yeah. And also just a sentiment thing,
there's a very popular um AI podcast and
they were they were talking about how
basically AI is just going to rule the
world. There's going to be so much um
you know is demand for capital that
yields are going to go to double digits
or maybe even triple digits. So I think
as a sentiment indicator that's pretty
Yeah. And these people are very smart
about AI but you know obviously less
well verssed in finance. So so I think
that that's um that's a pretty strong
sentiment indicator.
>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, look, like it's uh
it's been pretty lonely. I mean, I'm
sure you saw the Torsson slot comments
from over the weekend and you know, just
break it down real basic. You know, he
was talking about AI and he said he
said, "Look, there's two possibilities
here. AI succeeds and it's massively
deflationary and yields come down or AI
fails and the market crashes and yields
come down." He's like there's really
he's like I don't see a scenario where
yields don't come down here. I have a
lot of respect for Torson Sllock. Like
he's one of the more thoughtful
economists out there.
>> He absolutely is. And he you know for a
long time he stuck his neck out saying
that rates would be higher than normal
which he obviously was was correct
about. Yeah. I I love Torson. I will say
that I think that argument is probably
true on a 10-year time horizon. But
Jerry like so many people in tech they
always say that tech is so deflationary.
It's like I don't know. Have you paid
your Netflix bill? It's not that
deflationary. uh like it's it's and also
just I think that the demand for capex
is de demand for capital from from capex
is going to be so much more of an
inflationary force than the deflationary
force of uh increasing productivity.
>> I also think productivity is kind of
fake.
>> You think it's fake?
>> I think that productivity is a real
concept, but I think that it's just such
a hard thing to measure. Like one thing
I'll say is that um like productivity
skyrocketed in March and April 2020
because so many people got laid off. So
it's just if if you know capital and
labor are in the denominator and that
goes down it causes productivity to you
know be be kind of artificially things.
So I'm I'm yeah I'm a I'm a fader of
productivity like in in the practical
world I would say.
>> Okay cool.
>> Yeah. What do you think about stocks
Jared? You know, it's funny. Uh uh I
have I have an I have an assistant. He's
also my execution trader. And uh I had
him pull up the top 50 stocks uh charts
uh in the S&P this morning. And it's a
really interesting exercise. Like I I
used to do this when I was at Lehman and
I haven't done it in years, but when I
was at Lehman, I would literally get a
glass of scotch and sit down and go
through all 500 charts in the S&P. And
if you do that, you it starts to paint a
pretty clear picture as to like what is
topping, what is bottoming, right? So,
um it looks to me like
semis, healthc care and financials are
topping right now. Um
you know, you know, on the macro dirt
podcast that I do with Tony Greer, I
talked about financials topping a couple
weeks ago. I talked about how JP Morgan
was a pretty good short. Uh Goldman
Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo all
look like they're topping. Um
Healthcare,
uh Johnson and Johnson, and also
uh Nvidia, AM AMD, couple of other
semiames like I'm I'm seeing some charts
that are bottoming interestingly enough.
Um Intel looks like it's bottoming. Um,
Oracle looks like it's bottoming, but uh
I'm seeing a lot more charts that are
rolling over than charts that are
basing.
>> Okay. Yeah, healthc care had been a
lagard but is has been recently catching
a bid. Semis have been on fire for for
for three years. Tell tell me your view
on semiconductors powering the AI trade
and in particular sentiment on
semiconductors. Do you think everyone is
still balls long semiconductors and so
convinced that you know Nvidia could
never go down 30%. Yeah, I mean I think
you have to distinguish between people
like you and me, like smart people and
people who work at hedge funds versus,
you know, your average retail people.
Like I teach college students, right?
And uh I have a student who he showed me
his portfolio. It's 50% Nvidia and 50%
Broadcom and that was his entire
portfolio. And my suspicion is that's
the case with a lot of retail investors
in the US. Like they're, you know, they
were the darling stocks for a long time.
Everybody piled into them. Um, yeah, I I
I hesitate to use the word dumb money
because they've been right, you know,
for sure. Um, but they're probably not
going to sell at the highs. Okay. Um, so
you know, I don't look, I don't really
think of things in terms of
fundamentals. Like, you know, the last
Nvidia earnings, the leather jacket guy
said they were growing at 70% and the
stock ripped. Um, I mean, for sure,
like, Nvidia is growing at 70%. Um, what
I've been waiting for for the last six
months is for that second derivative of
growth to change. Um, and you see the
growth rate start to come down to 60 or
50%. And that's when the stock that's
that's when the stocks are going to top.
So
>> yeah, uh, Nvidia I think earnings are
accelerating. I think they, you know,
earnings revenues were growing like 200%
a few years ago and they slowed down to
like 50 or 60. So I think he's guiding
for Yeah. Yeah. Revenues were growing
like 55%. And so they did slow down and
now um I yeah he guided the CFO guided
for 70% growth over the next 12 months.
Jared I I actually have some data from a
company called Vanda Research. you know,
I'm lucky enough to to be on their
distribution, which is like top of the
line positioning data on retail. And
they actually say that retail
positioning in semiconductors is among
the lowest it's been over the past two
years and that actually the selling in
overall single stocks for retail
community in late Janu in sorry late
July. So basically the you know the
hedge fund uh unwind was the biggest
since 2020. So I I think Jared who is
extremely long semiconductors is hedge
funds and semicondu and and um
institutions. I think institutions are
like very very long semiconductors. But
interestingly I just want to offer that
as like a potential data point about how
retail was maybe a little calmed down a
little bit.
>> I like it. I like it. I can go with
that. I mean if you think if you think
about you know look I would never want
to work at a pod shop. um because you
know I I sustain draw downs larger than
5%. Like it's very diff it's it's very
difficult to manage money in that
environment right um but it you know my
guess is all the multistrategy hedge
funds like all those pods were long
semis and related stuff for a long time.
I mean like you have to be right like I
mean that's that's just the way that
business works. So, um, you know, then
you had the shakeout a couple of months
ago. I guess it was last month, but, um,
>> I think that the the the bottom was like
July 27th.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. Do you think that that was the
bottom in semiconductors? We had a
strong bounce coming out of that.
Faltered a little bit.
Well, I think anytime you have a
leverage player that goes TU,
um that that is that usually marks a
bottom, right? Um and so Citadel got the
cleanup print on that and now they're
pretty much out of that trade at this
point. Um but you know
>> just for audience so yeah so um situ
situational awareness a hedge fund was
very long semiconductors and they
liquidated uh most or all of their
publicly traded securities sold them in
block trades to Citadel that was
announced July 27th or 28th and then in
the middle of August like later later
August Citadel announced that they had
sold the bulk of those positions. So
yeah I agree with you. hedge funds
deleveragings are actually bullish
because they they the owners go from
weaker hands to less weak hands.
>> Well, the thing is is that um if you go
back to the financial crisis, there were
a number of blowups. Um but you know
when Bear Sterns blew up, it was March
17th of 2008 and there were a lot of
people who said that's it. That was the
bottom and the S&P rallied 17% over the
next three months.
>> Wow. you know, um, so, you know,
everybody thought the coast was clear
and then of course the main event
happened which was Leman. So, you know,
I I kind of struggle. I mean, look,
situational awareness was a gigantic
fund. It was humongous.
But I I struggle like it's the it's the
same thing like the most leverage player
gets taken out first, but there's still
so much leverage in the system, you
know. Um, so like my guess is there's
another situational awareness coming in
the months down the line. You know,
there's too much leverage in the system.
>> Very interesting. Jared, could you share
more of your thoughts on sentiment with
regards to semiconductors or a AI
broadly?
>> Well, you know, we had four magazine
covers on AI in the last week. uh one
from Barrens which said something like
it will never end or something like
>> but I so I read it uh in in your in your
newsletter the daily journ I think it
was something like the AI bubble will
never end so they're doing that classic
journalist thing that I've done
sometimes of like playing both sides
being like the AI bubble you're calling
it a bubble but you're still bullish you
know it's like make a call you know um
so yeah but yeah no the four magazine
titles are it's a little brutal on the
sentiment side
>> yeah yeah for sure So, look, I mean,
there's nothing in the S&P chart that
leads me to believe we're going to crash
tomorrow, next week, next month. Uh, the
chart is pretty neutral. Um, like I, you
know, I'm not seeing any like like huge
red flags in the technicals. Um, the
market's actually pretty quiet all
things considering. I mean, we, you
know, it's not Labor Day yet. Like, I'm
sure things will perk up after Labor
Day, but um, yeah, that's basically
where I stand. So,
>> yeah. Also, the S&P's hold held in so
much better than I would have thought
with the massive sell off in in
semiconductors. Like I I would have
thought, oh my god, if semiconductors go
down 30%, like the S&P will be down 18%.
And it's that was not true at all. And
so I guess you know what what do you
make of what has been rallying
to fill the gap?
>> Well, I mean, you're looking at banks,
you're looking at healthcare, you're
also looking at energy, um, and
industrials, although industrials have
been coming down in the last couple of
weeks.
Um, but yeah, like like I said, you
know, when I went through that chart
package, like this is this is all the
stuff that looks like it's topping to
me, you know. Um, especially the broker
dealers. Like Goldman Sachs and Morgan
Stanley have very scary charts.
>> Tell me about copper.
>> Out of all the metals, I am least
bullish on copper. Um, like I' I'd much
rather own gold, silver, platinum,
platium than copper. Uh, I think
sentiment on copper is pretty hot
because the AI trade. Um, so the the
chart I mean where the charts in the
upper right hand corner. Um, that
doesn't necessarily mean you sell it,
but um, it it doesn't really look like
it's topping, but the last couple days
have been kind of ugly. So, I'm not
sure.
>> What about gold?
>> So, I think people are um freaking out
about gold after Jackson Hole. So
basically we rallied 15% in a month with
gold which is a huge move and it was
well needed. Um
after after Wars's speech gold broke
back down through the 200 day at 4500.
So now like all the amateur technicians
are like oh it's back through the 200
day so it's going to you know it's it's
going to go back down to 4,000. It might
uh we might retest 4,000. I kind of
doubt it. Um, I think once you cross
through the 200 day a number of times,
it kind of loses its significance, you
know. Um, so I'm cautiously bullish
here. Um, you know, there really isn't
support until 3,900 or 4,000, but that
doesn't mean it's going to get there,
you know. Um, and ultimately, if you
look longterm,
um, I mean, basically, we have payrolls
this Friday, right? And the the jobs
data keeps getting worse and worse and
worse. It's 55,000 expected. If we get a
super ugly jobs print like negative
50,000, negative 100,000, something like
that, this whole trade is going to
reverse and WH is going to be the best
gold salesman of all time
>> because he's going to be doubbish.
>> Yeah. Yeah.
>> Yeah. So Jared, obviously, as as you
know, the non-farm payrolls is quite
correlated with immigration. So we could
have huge levels of immigration
immigration legal and otherwise like
that causes non-farm payrolls to be
good. So like under a Biden
administration when we had like 300,000
non-farm payrolls a a month in in some
months that wasn't necessarily like
amazing because um amazingly a sign of a
strong economy. And likewise during
Trump when migration is neutral or even
negative the maybe the break even rate
is like 40,000 or 50,000. So like really
the unemployment rate has been going
down. So yes, payrolls have done exactly
what you said. They look abysmal, but
the unemployment rate is has actually
gone down.
>> Well, that's because of the
participation rate, right?
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> Yes. And I think that's because
in in part like uh you know, nativeorn
Americans have a slightly lower
participation rate than immigrants, I
would imagine.
Um, so yeah, I mean the unemploy the
unemployment rate is like, you know, has
4.1% and not only on an absolute level
is it good, but it has momentum. Like it
was at 4.5%. So unemployment has been
going down. So I'm curious, you know,
just how weak is the labor market?
>> Yeah, the the unemployment rate is a
little bit of a head scratcher. Like if
you remember when it got up to 4.5,
everybody was saying that it triggered
the SOA rule, right? like and Claudia SM
came out and said actually technically
it triggered the SAM rule but it
probably did not and sure enough the
unemployment rate has come down to 4.1.
So
>> tell us about baldness drugs.
>> I don't know anything about it.
Literally I just saw a tweet and I put
it in the newsletter. Um I I I will say
I do have a history of finding um
>> you do
Eli Liy. Yeah. So, so years ago, this
was like in 2015 or 16, I think it was
2016,
uh, I did a lot of research on, uh,
imunotherapy.
Um, which is basically a cancer cure.
You know, it's a drug that attacks
cancer cells, which your immune system
does not. Uh, and bought, uh, something
called Kite Pharmaceuticals, which was a
imunotherapy biotech. Uh, and it and and
basically it was a it was a
three-bagger. got taken out I think by
Bristol Meyers. Uh and then uh a few
years ago I was early on the GLP1's
trade. Um
>> I made you made a bunch of money for
subscribers. So shout out. Yeah.
>> Yeah. So you know this like I kind of
have a philosophy about this like
invest then investigate, right? the
first time you hear about something, you
should buy the stock and then you do
your research because inevitably what
happens is people say, "Oh, it's a
baldness drug." All right, I'm going to
research that. I'll get to that later.
And then they never do. And then the
stock's up 200% and they miss the whole
trade. So, I gave it to my subscribers.
I'm like, "Look, you know, I'm just
putting it out there. Research this and
uh you know, maybe it turns into
something."
>> Yeah. that that is good. You know, I um
actually have been looking into some of
these stocks myself. So, I think pro
probably uh there's one Absky Corp that
is uh it says it's AI powered drug
discovery. So, I get a little skeptical
there. I think the the other one is uh
the ticker is m like you have a long
flowing mane such as you do Jared and
really what it is is just extremely
highowered roane minoxidil which which I
I'll be honest like I'm I'm on uh
minoxidil and normally the reason that
they don't crank up the dosage a ton on
minoxidil is because it can cause like
heart palpitations and heart issues. So
they're saying we're able to crank up
the dosage and give people a ridiculous
amount of minoxidil in a way that isn't
going to give them uh you know heart
issues. not heart issues, but you know,
heart palpitations. And it's like, it's
not like it's some drug. Do we know if
it works or do we not know? We know we
know it works. It's extremely powerful
at like growing hair. It's just being
able to do that extra extra power.
There's another company begins with a C
um and and it's a European company that
also has uh an angle there. But I um
yeah, I've been looking at myself. So,
when I saw you were writing about it, uh
just wanted to to say that. Jared, do
you do you think that AI is a is a
bubble? I do. I do. I'm not I'm not
bashful to say that. I do. It's um
Let me let me just back up for a second.
Um you know, we were talking about the
debt issuance from Google and the
hyperscalers and stuff like that. Like
uh you know, in my lifetime, this is the
first time I've seen um tech being
financed with debt.
>> Like usually you finance tech with
equity, right? because the asset has a
very short lifespan. It's going to be
obsolete in a couple years. You don't
want to take out 10 or 30 years worth of
debt to finance an asset that's going to
be around for two or three years. Um so,
uh you know, the the.com bubble was all
equity. Like nobody was issuing debt and
this time we have a lot of debt. Um and
the debt the leverage is what's get
people into trouble. Also, this is debt
at high interest rates, you know. So, I
don't know what the spread of Google
paper is over treasuries. It's probably
like 60 or 80 basis points or something
like that, you know, but they're
essentially paying a 6% coupon on this
debt. It's it's it's it's a lot. You
know,
>> it's certainly higher than the 2% or 2
and a half% that they pay in in 2021.
Jared, I do think though, you hear this
argument that with bond yields rising,
are the hyperscalers going to stop
issuing debt? It's like no way. like
they they don't care at all about
obviously the the finance people on
working at these companies are aware of
this issue but like is are the CEOs
going to say oh my god the the the the
30-year Treasury you'll just hit 6% stop
capex stop cap like it's not going to
happen
it's not going to happen Jared tell us
about your new book
>> yeah so I have it right here it's the
awesome portfolio and uh I'll tell you a
secret about this book in a second but
first First of all, um the way we save
and invest for retirement is very very
dumb. And when I say we, I mean your
average person, right? Um basically
ideas catch on when they are simple.
Okay? And people have been taught a very
simple thing over the last 20 or 30
years. Very simple. You say, "Put all
your money in the S&P 500 in the index
fund, dollar cost average it, ride out
the volatility, and never sell." That's
very easy for people to understand. And
that has worked for a really long time.
Maybe it continues to work. I don't
care. That's not the point, right? The
point is that when you invest in an
index, you get the returns of the index,
which are very good, but you also get
the volatility of the index. So, me
personally, maybe I'm just more
conservative. I don't want to put my
life savings into something that moves
around 1% a day or back during the
tariff tantrum last year is moving
around 9% a day. I don't want my life
savings in that. I don't want to take a
20 30 40 50% draw down, right? Because
draw downs affect your psychology. So if
you take a giant draw down on your life
savings, number one, you're going to be
miserable and you're going to be
miserable until you get back up to the
high water mark. And number two, there
is a decent chance that you're just
going to tap out and sell and stop the
pain. And that's the worst thing you can
possibly do because then you stop
compounding, right? But we've seen this
a bunch of times before. This is the
antidote to that. So instead of just
being in stocks, you're diversified
across asset classes. Stocks, bonds,
gold, cash, and real estate in equal
proportions. The interesting thing is is
that you're only giving up about 1 to
two percentage points in performance,
but your volatility is cut in half. And
the worst draw down that has ever
happened with this portfolio is down
12%. whereas about 40% for the S&P 500
in a calendar year. Right? So this is
the answer. This is the answer. And it's
the answer not just be, you know, look,
if you buy the S&P 500, you will have
more money when you retire than if you
have the awesome portfolio. That's if
you can hang on. If you can hang on. But
this is if you want to be happy. If you
don't want to be checking your account
balance every day, seeing what the
market is doing and panicking when the
market is down three or four percent.
>> People should buy the book. We'll
include a link to the publisher and on
Amazon. Jared, two sentiment questions
for you. One, you made a brilliant call
saying that private credit is screwed
and alternative investments generally,
private equity and private credit. You
were not a believer in that. I think we
did that interview maybe two years ago.
Yeah. And I'm almost positive that
pretty much every single alternative
asset stock uh has is lower now than it
was then.
We had a wash out in private credit and
some fundraising issues and literally
every single day it was these Bloomberg
articles about private credit doom,
private credit doom. Has your sentiment
view changed given how much the
negativity is has been in the headlines
uh at the beginning of the year?
>> No. Um, I mean, yes, like I Yes and no.
Um, I was very bearish when we talked a
couple years ago. Uh, I'm still bearish.
Um, I think all of this is connected.
AI, private credit, uh, you know,
something else like I think it's all
connected. Um, and I think if AI
unwinds, private credit will also or
vice versa. Um, so what I think what I
told you at the time, what I was telling
everybody at the time is this was going
to take a long time to play out. In the
public markets, when something unwinds,
there is liquidity. You can sell, right?
And the market will repric very quickly.
In the private markets, that doesn't
happen. So, what you've seen in private
equity and private credit is stuff just
being held, you know, like like
portfolio companies not being sold for a
really long time and it's just going to
take a long time to find that liquidity.
Um, so, you know, a bare market in the
privates is just going to take a much
longer time to play out, but we have not
found the bottom yet. We haven't
>> in private credit and private equity.
>> Yeah.
>> Another sentiment question for you,
Jared. I'm sure you've heard the
following statement. There's a bubble in
the stock market, but the bubble is not
in valuation. The bubble is in earnings.
When you hear that, is that not just an
admission that the bears are wrong, that
the earnings are so good that oh,
there's a bubble not in valuation, but
there's a bubble in this other thing.
>> I haven't heard that before, but that's
a really interesting quote. Um yeah, I
mean I put a I put a chart in my
newsletter uh today, yesterday,
um about it was the S&P relative to
wages and how it had completely
decoupled from wages over time. Um
but really if you put a if you overlay a
chart on that of corporate profits as a
percentage of GDP, it looks pretty
similar, right? So corporate profits
have gone up a lot and there are a lot
of analoges to the.com bubble 25 years
ago 26 years ago but the one thing
that's different is there are profits
you know I mean except for maybe in open
AI and anthropic but you know there are
profits so yes but that revenue growth
in anthropic and open AI has been
tremendous so I just a bare argument was
like where's the revenue in the in the
in the labs OpenAI Enthropic and I just
want to say as someone who's calling
kind of calling balls and strikes the
revenue growth has been quite quite good
like among the best ever for history of
companies.
>> You know more than me on that.
>> Well Jared thanks so much for joining
us. People can find you on X at daily
dirtnap and we'll link to your book the
awesome portfolio.
>> Awesome. Thanks Jack.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
Jared Dillian discusses his bullish stance on the bond market, arguing against the 'mind virus' that inflation and deficits make bonds uninvestable. He touches on the current state of stocks, noting that while semiconductors may have seen a retail exit, institutional positioning remains heavy. Dillian further critiques the AI narrative as a bubble fueled by debt rather than equity, discusses the potential for a 'long-term' downturn in private credit, and introduces his new book, 'The Awesome Portfolio,' which advocates for a diversified, lower-volatility approach to investing.
Videos recently processed by our community