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With "Terrible" Economic Data, Treasury Bonds at 5.3% are a Bargain, argues Jared Dillian

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With "Terrible" Economic Data, Treasury Bonds at 5.3% are a Bargain, argues Jared Dillian

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807 segments

0:00

joined today once again by Jared Dillian

0:02

of the Daily Dirt Dap and the new book,

0:05

The Awesome Portfolio. Jared, good to

0:07

see you.

0:08

>> Good to be here, man. Thanks for having

0:09

me.

0:10

>> Yeah, you too. Jared, looking at the

0:12

front page of Bloomberg, global bond

0:14

sell-off sends yields to highest level

0:16

since 2008.

0:19

What do you make of the bare market in

0:22

bonds that we've had? The fact that

0:24

these long-term government bond yields

0:26

can't really seem to catch a bid. Your

0:28

thoughts? Uh how much time do we have?

0:30

>> As much time as you got.

0:33

>> This is uh this is a very long story. Um

0:37

so I am of the belief that there is a

0:43

mind virus going through people in the

0:46

market. Um

0:49

people believe that deficits are out of

0:51

control. People believe that inflation

0:53

is out of control. we are really back to

0:56

where we were in the late '7s when

0:57

people were calling bonds certificates

0:59

of confiscation.

1:01

Um the reality is is that inflation is

1:05

not that high. It's come down quite a

1:07

bit in the last couple of months. It

1:09

continues to come down. Um yes, it's

1:12

been above the target for 5 years. Yes,

1:15

Wars did say it's a firm target. I don't

1:18

understand the obsession currently when

1:21

the rest of the economic data is

1:23

actually terrible. Right? So, we've had

1:27

two week payroll reports. The estimate

1:30

for the next one is 55,000 jobs and we

1:34

have a 66% chance of a rate hike. It's

1:37

madness. All the other data has been the

1:39

like I said, inflation is coming down.

1:41

Uh before I walked in here, we got we

1:44

well we had Chicago PMI um the day of

1:48

the Jackson Hole, which was 10 points

1:50

lower than expected. Um Jolts was

1:54

terrible today. Um

1:57

ISM was slightly below expectations, but

2:00

the point is is that not only is

2:03

inflation not a concern, it looks like

2:06

we are entering a slowdown in growth.

2:08

Right? Getting back to the deficits

2:11

point, everybody is worried about supply

2:13

of bonds. Um,

2:16

you know, in absolute terms, the deficit

2:19

is $2 trillion, which is a scary number,

2:22

but it's only 6% of GDP. And back in

2:26

2010, it was 12% of GDP.

2:29

And people showed up at the auctions.

2:32

Uh, the auctions had bid to covers of

2:34

three or higher. So it's very easy to

2:38

measure the supply of bonds, but nobody

2:41

ever talks about the demand for bonds,

2:43

right? So if we had a big riskoff event

2:46

triggered by some unknown catalyst, but

2:49

if stocks were down 20%. Trust me,

2:52

interest rates would be much lower,

2:55

right? People would show up and buy

2:56

bonds. So I am I am not worried about

3:00

the bond market at all. I'm insanely

3:02

bullish. I think 5 whatever on, you

3:06

know, 52, 53 on 30 years is an

3:09

incredible deal. I think 47 on 10 is an

3:12

incredible deal. Uh I personally have

3:16

moved a huge portion of my money into

3:19

bonds in the last month. Um and this is

3:22

this is a very long-term trade for me.

3:24

I'll hold this for three to five years,

3:26

but I I am a I am a big believer in

3:29

this.

3:29

>> And you think so you're bullish on

3:31

bonds. Do you think that the narrative

3:34

of that bond yields are going to go to

3:36

the the moon is he's gotten totally out

3:38

of hand?

3:39

>> Oh my god. Yeah. I mean, so somebody

3:42

just sent me I guess Ray Dalio wrote a

3:44

piece in Time magazine about Bonds. Like

3:47

you said, it's on the Bloomberg front

3:49

page every single day. Like every single

3:52

day, people are obsessed with it. Um,

3:55

and you know, I'm a sentiment guy, so

3:56

when I see stuff like that, like, you

3:59

know, I'm just

4:00

>> naturally

4:02

going the other way.

4:03

>> Yes. And the point you make about supply

4:05

is interesting because there's a video

4:08

I've seen of Paul Vulk or you know, rest

4:10

in peace, legendary Fed chair, probably

4:13

1978, 1979, somewhere around there, you

4:16

know, maybe early early 80s, but you the

4:18

the long-term yields were at like 12%.

4:21

And he was asked, "Why are yields so

4:23

high?" and he said, "Well, the

4:25

government is having to compete out in

4:27

the market and there's just not enough,

4:29

you know, there's just so much bonds

4:30

that are being issued, the private

4:32

sector, the government, and obviously

4:34

what we have now is

4:36

>> 10 to 50 times higher in terms of of

4:38

issuance. So, I think that demand is

4:41

going to catch up. It It definitely is.

4:43

It is interesting. You said 2010. I

4:45

think that, you know, you're totally

4:46

right that everyone wanted bonds in

4:48

2010. I think, you know, the

4:50

unemployment rate then was a lot higher.

4:52

We came out of a financial crisis when

4:54

everyone lost money from taking too much

4:56

credit risk and bonds rallied. Then

4:58

there was all this regulation passed to

5:00

make credit risk uh unattractive to take

5:02

and it incentivized taking duration

5:05

risk, interest rate risk, bond risk.

5:06

>> Yeah.

5:07

>> Now, you know, we we come out everyone

5:09

in fixed income lost so much money from

5:11

buying buying duration. So, I think it

5:13

it is a slightly different scenario, but

5:15

I'm inclined to agree with you.

5:17

>> Yeah. One point I do want to bring up is

5:20

that a lot of this AI issuance is

5:23

weighing on the bond market. So, you

5:25

know, when Google comes to market with a

5:27

$40 billion bond issue, that puts a lot

5:29

of pressure on the market. So, you were

5:32

talking about Vulkar basically talking

5:34

about the crowding out effect. Yes.

5:35

>> You know, the government borrows first

5:37

and the private sector borrows second.

5:39

But, you know, if they're if if you're

5:41

getting a trillion in bond issuance out

5:43

of the private sector, that obviously

5:44

puts a lot of pressure on yields, too.

5:46

>> Yeah. And also just a sentiment thing,

5:47

there's a very popular um AI podcast and

5:50

they were they were talking about how

5:52

basically AI is just going to rule the

5:54

world. There's going to be so much um

5:56

you know is demand for capital that

5:58

yields are going to go to double digits

6:00

or maybe even triple digits. So I think

6:02

as a sentiment indicator that's pretty

6:04

Yeah. And these people are very smart

6:05

about AI but you know obviously less

6:07

well verssed in finance. So so I think

6:09

that that's um that's a pretty strong

6:12

sentiment indicator.

6:13

>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, look, like it's uh

6:16

it's been pretty lonely. I mean, I'm

6:18

sure you saw the Torsson slot comments

6:20

from over the weekend and you know, just

6:24

break it down real basic. You know, he

6:25

was talking about AI and he said he

6:28

said, "Look, there's two possibilities

6:29

here. AI succeeds and it's massively

6:33

deflationary and yields come down or AI

6:37

fails and the market crashes and yields

6:40

come down." He's like there's really

6:42

he's like I don't see a scenario where

6:43

yields don't come down here. I have a

6:46

lot of respect for Torson Sllock. Like

6:48

he's one of the more thoughtful

6:49

economists out there.

6:50

>> He absolutely is. And he you know for a

6:52

long time he stuck his neck out saying

6:54

that rates would be higher than normal

6:56

which he obviously was was correct

6:57

about. Yeah. I I love Torson. I will say

6:59

that I think that argument is probably

7:00

true on a 10-year time horizon. But

7:02

Jerry like so many people in tech they

7:04

always say that tech is so deflationary.

7:07

It's like I don't know. Have you paid

7:08

your Netflix bill? It's not that

7:09

deflationary. uh like it's it's and also

7:13

just I think that the demand for capex

7:15

is de demand for capital from from capex

7:19

is going to be so much more of an

7:21

inflationary force than the deflationary

7:23

force of uh increasing productivity.

7:27

>> I also think productivity is kind of

7:28

fake.

7:29

>> You think it's fake?

7:30

>> I think that productivity is a real

7:31

concept, but I think that it's just such

7:34

a hard thing to measure. Like one thing

7:36

I'll say is that um like productivity

7:38

skyrocketed in March and April 2020

7:41

because so many people got laid off. So

7:43

it's just if if you know capital and

7:45

labor are in the denominator and that

7:47

goes down it causes productivity to you

7:49

know be be kind of artificially things.

7:51

So I'm I'm yeah I'm a I'm a fader of

7:53

productivity like in in the practical

7:55

world I would say.

7:57

>> Okay cool.

7:58

>> Yeah. What do you think about stocks

8:00

Jared? You know, it's funny. Uh uh I

8:03

have I have an I have an assistant. He's

8:05

also my execution trader. And uh I had

8:09

him pull up the top 50 stocks uh charts

8:13

uh in the S&P this morning. And it's a

8:16

really interesting exercise. Like I I

8:18

used to do this when I was at Lehman and

8:19

I haven't done it in years, but when I

8:21

was at Lehman, I would literally get a

8:24

glass of scotch and sit down and go

8:26

through all 500 charts in the S&P. And

8:29

if you do that, you it starts to paint a

8:32

pretty clear picture as to like what is

8:35

topping, what is bottoming, right? So,

8:39

um it looks to me like

8:42

semis, healthc care and financials are

8:46

topping right now. Um

8:49

you know, you know, on the macro dirt

8:51

podcast that I do with Tony Greer, I

8:53

talked about financials topping a couple

8:54

weeks ago. I talked about how JP Morgan

8:56

was a pretty good short. Uh Goldman

8:58

Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo all

9:01

look like they're topping. Um

9:04

Healthcare,

9:05

uh Johnson and Johnson, and also

9:09

uh Nvidia, AM AMD, couple of other

9:13

semiames like I'm I'm seeing some charts

9:16

that are bottoming interestingly enough.

9:18

Um Intel looks like it's bottoming. Um,

9:21

Oracle looks like it's bottoming, but uh

9:24

I'm seeing a lot more charts that are

9:27

rolling over than charts that are

9:29

basing.

9:29

>> Okay. Yeah, healthc care had been a

9:33

lagard but is has been recently catching

9:36

a bid. Semis have been on fire for for

9:38

for three years. Tell tell me your view

9:41

on semiconductors powering the AI trade

9:44

and in particular sentiment on

9:47

semiconductors. Do you think everyone is

9:50

still balls long semiconductors and so

9:52

convinced that you know Nvidia could

9:54

never go down 30%. Yeah, I mean I think

9:57

you have to distinguish between people

9:59

like you and me, like smart people and

10:02

people who work at hedge funds versus,

10:04

you know, your average retail people.

10:07

Like I teach college students, right?

10:09

And uh I have a student who he showed me

10:13

his portfolio. It's 50% Nvidia and 50%

10:17

Broadcom and that was his entire

10:19

portfolio. And my suspicion is that's

10:22

the case with a lot of retail investors

10:25

in the US. Like they're, you know, they

10:28

were the darling stocks for a long time.

10:30

Everybody piled into them. Um, yeah, I I

10:33

I hesitate to use the word dumb money

10:36

because they've been right, you know,

10:37

for sure. Um, but they're probably not

10:40

going to sell at the highs. Okay. Um, so

10:45

you know, I don't look, I don't really

10:47

think of things in terms of

10:48

fundamentals. Like, you know, the last

10:49

Nvidia earnings, the leather jacket guy

10:52

said they were growing at 70% and the

10:54

stock ripped. Um, I mean, for sure,

10:58

like, Nvidia is growing at 70%. Um, what

11:03

I've been waiting for for the last six

11:05

months is for that second derivative of

11:08

growth to change. Um, and you see the

11:12

growth rate start to come down to 60 or

11:14

50%. And that's when the stock that's

11:16

that's when the stocks are going to top.

11:18

So

11:19

>> yeah, uh, Nvidia I think earnings are

11:23

accelerating. I think they, you know,

11:25

earnings revenues were growing like 200%

11:27

a few years ago and they slowed down to

11:28

like 50 or 60. So I think he's guiding

11:30

for Yeah. Yeah. Revenues were growing

11:32

like 55%. And so they did slow down and

11:35

now um I yeah he guided the CFO guided

11:39

for 70% growth over the next 12 months.

11:44

Jared I I actually have some data from a

11:48

company called Vanda Research. you know,

11:49

I'm lucky enough to to be on their

11:51

distribution, which is like top of the

11:53

line positioning data on retail. And

11:56

they actually say that retail

11:57

positioning in semiconductors is among

12:01

the lowest it's been over the past two

12:03

years and that actually the selling in

12:05

overall single stocks for retail

12:07

community in late Janu in sorry late

12:10

July. So basically the you know the

12:11

hedge fund uh unwind was the biggest

12:15

since 2020. So I I think Jared who is

12:21

extremely long semiconductors is hedge

12:22

funds and semicondu and and um

12:24

institutions. I think institutions are

12:26

like very very long semiconductors. But

12:28

interestingly I just want to offer that

12:29

as like a potential data point about how

12:32

retail was maybe a little calmed down a

12:35

little bit.

12:36

>> I like it. I like it. I can go with

12:38

that. I mean if you think if you think

12:41

about you know look I would never want

12:43

to work at a pod shop. um because you

12:47

know I I sustain draw downs larger than

12:49

5%. Like it's very diff it's it's very

12:52

difficult to manage money in that

12:53

environment right um but it you know my

12:58

guess is all the multistrategy hedge

13:00

funds like all those pods were long

13:03

semis and related stuff for a long time.

13:06

I mean like you have to be right like I

13:08

mean that's that's just the way that

13:10

business works. So, um, you know, then

13:13

you had the shakeout a couple of months

13:15

ago. I guess it was last month, but, um,

13:18

>> I think that the the the bottom was like

13:21

July 27th.

13:22

>> Yeah.

13:23

>> Yeah. Do you think that that was the

13:28

bottom in semiconductors? We had a

13:30

strong bounce coming out of that.

13:32

Faltered a little bit.

13:34

Well, I think anytime you have a

13:37

leverage player that goes TU,

13:41

um that that is that usually marks a

13:45

bottom, right? Um and so Citadel got the

13:48

cleanup print on that and now they're

13:50

pretty much out of that trade at this

13:52

point. Um but you know

13:55

>> just for audience so yeah so um situ

13:57

situational awareness a hedge fund was

14:00

very long semiconductors and they

14:03

liquidated uh most or all of their

14:06

publicly traded securities sold them in

14:08

block trades to Citadel that was

14:10

announced July 27th or 28th and then in

14:13

the middle of August like later later

14:14

August Citadel announced that they had

14:17

sold the bulk of those positions. So

14:19

yeah I agree with you. hedge funds

14:20

deleveragings are actually bullish

14:22

because they they the owners go from

14:25

weaker hands to less weak hands.

14:27

>> Well, the thing is is that um if you go

14:30

back to the financial crisis, there were

14:32

a number of blowups. Um but you know

14:35

when Bear Sterns blew up, it was March

14:37

17th of 2008 and there were a lot of

14:40

people who said that's it. That was the

14:42

bottom and the S&P rallied 17% over the

14:48

next three months.

14:49

>> Wow. you know, um, so, you know,

14:52

everybody thought the coast was clear

14:54

and then of course the main event

14:55

happened which was Leman. So, you know,

14:58

I I kind of struggle. I mean, look,

15:00

situational awareness was a gigantic

15:03

fund. It was humongous.

15:05

But I I struggle like it's the it's the

15:09

same thing like the most leverage player

15:12

gets taken out first, but there's still

15:15

so much leverage in the system, you

15:17

know. Um, so like my guess is there's

15:21

another situational awareness coming in

15:24

the months down the line. You know,

15:26

there's too much leverage in the system.

15:28

>> Very interesting. Jared, could you share

15:31

more of your thoughts on sentiment with

15:33

regards to semiconductors or a AI

15:36

broadly?

15:38

>> Well, you know, we had four magazine

15:40

covers on AI in the last week. uh one

15:44

from Barrens which said something like

15:47

it will never end or something like

15:49

>> but I so I read it uh in in your in your

15:53

newsletter the daily journ I think it

15:54

was something like the AI bubble will

15:56

never end so they're doing that classic

15:58

journalist thing that I've done

15:59

sometimes of like playing both sides

16:01

being like the AI bubble you're calling

16:03

it a bubble but you're still bullish you

16:04

know it's like make a call you know um

16:06

so yeah but yeah no the four magazine

16:09

titles are it's a little brutal on the

16:11

sentiment side

16:11

>> yeah yeah for sure So, look, I mean,

16:14

there's nothing in the S&P chart that

16:17

leads me to believe we're going to crash

16:18

tomorrow, next week, next month. Uh, the

16:21

chart is pretty neutral. Um, like I, you

16:25

know, I'm not seeing any like like huge

16:27

red flags in the technicals. Um, the

16:30

market's actually pretty quiet all

16:32

things considering. I mean, we, you

16:33

know, it's not Labor Day yet. Like, I'm

16:35

sure things will perk up after Labor

16:36

Day, but um, yeah, that's basically

16:40

where I stand. So,

16:41

>> yeah. Also, the S&P's hold held in so

16:44

much better than I would have thought

16:45

with the massive sell off in in

16:46

semiconductors. Like I I would have

16:48

thought, oh my god, if semiconductors go

16:51

down 30%, like the S&P will be down 18%.

16:54

And it's that was not true at all. And

16:56

so I guess you know what what do you

16:58

make of what has been rallying

17:00

to fill the gap?

17:01

>> Well, I mean, you're looking at banks,

17:03

you're looking at healthcare, you're

17:04

also looking at energy, um, and

17:06

industrials, although industrials have

17:08

been coming down in the last couple of

17:11

weeks.

17:12

Um, but yeah, like like I said, you

17:14

know, when I went through that chart

17:15

package, like this is this is all the

17:18

stuff that looks like it's topping to

17:19

me, you know. Um, especially the broker

17:23

dealers. Like Goldman Sachs and Morgan

17:25

Stanley have very scary charts.

17:27

>> Tell me about copper.

17:29

>> Out of all the metals, I am least

17:32

bullish on copper. Um, like I' I'd much

17:36

rather own gold, silver, platinum,

17:39

platium than copper. Uh, I think

17:41

sentiment on copper is pretty hot

17:43

because the AI trade. Um, so the the

17:48

chart I mean where the charts in the

17:50

upper right hand corner. Um, that

17:52

doesn't necessarily mean you sell it,

17:54

but um, it it doesn't really look like

17:57

it's topping, but the last couple days

17:59

have been kind of ugly. So, I'm not

18:01

sure.

18:02

>> What about gold?

18:03

>> So, I think people are um freaking out

18:07

about gold after Jackson Hole. So

18:09

basically we rallied 15% in a month with

18:12

gold which is a huge move and it was

18:14

well needed. Um

18:17

after after Wars's speech gold broke

18:21

back down through the 200 day at 4500.

18:24

So now like all the amateur technicians

18:27

are like oh it's back through the 200

18:29

day so it's going to you know it's it's

18:31

going to go back down to 4,000. It might

18:34

uh we might retest 4,000. I kind of

18:36

doubt it. Um, I think once you cross

18:40

through the 200 day a number of times,

18:42

it kind of loses its significance, you

18:45

know. Um, so I'm cautiously bullish

18:49

here. Um, you know, there really isn't

18:52

support until 3,900 or 4,000, but that

18:55

doesn't mean it's going to get there,

18:57

you know. Um, and ultimately, if you

19:00

look longterm,

19:03

um, I mean, basically, we have payrolls

19:05

this Friday, right? And the the jobs

19:08

data keeps getting worse and worse and

19:10

worse. It's 55,000 expected. If we get a

19:13

super ugly jobs print like negative

19:16

50,000, negative 100,000, something like

19:18

that, this whole trade is going to

19:21

reverse and WH is going to be the best

19:23

gold salesman of all time

19:25

>> because he's going to be doubbish.

19:27

>> Yeah. Yeah.

19:28

>> Yeah. So Jared, obviously, as as you

19:30

know, the non-farm payrolls is quite

19:34

correlated with immigration. So we could

19:36

have huge levels of immigration

19:38

immigration legal and otherwise like

19:40

that causes non-farm payrolls to be

19:41

good. So like under a Biden

19:43

administration when we had like 300,000

19:46

non-farm payrolls a a month in in some

19:49

months that wasn't necessarily like

19:51

amazing because um amazingly a sign of a

19:54

strong economy. And likewise during

19:55

Trump when migration is neutral or even

19:58

negative the maybe the break even rate

20:01

is like 40,000 or 50,000. So like really

20:04

the unemployment rate has been going

20:05

down. So yes, payrolls have done exactly

20:07

what you said. They look abysmal, but

20:09

the unemployment rate is has actually

20:11

gone down.

20:12

>> Well, that's because of the

20:13

participation rate, right?

20:15

>> Yeah.

20:16

>> Yeah.

20:16

>> Yes. And I think that's because

20:20

in in part like uh you know, nativeorn

20:22

Americans have a slightly lower

20:24

participation rate than immigrants, I

20:26

would imagine.

20:28

Um, so yeah, I mean the unemploy the

20:30

unemployment rate is like, you know, has

20:32

4.1% and not only on an absolute level

20:35

is it good, but it has momentum. Like it

20:36

was at 4.5%. So unemployment has been

20:38

going down. So I'm curious, you know,

20:40

just how weak is the labor market?

20:41

>> Yeah, the the unemployment rate is a

20:43

little bit of a head scratcher. Like if

20:45

you remember when it got up to 4.5,

20:48

everybody was saying that it triggered

20:50

the SOA rule, right? like and Claudia SM

20:54

came out and said actually technically

20:56

it triggered the SAM rule but it

20:58

probably did not and sure enough the

21:00

unemployment rate has come down to 4.1.

21:03

So

21:04

>> tell us about baldness drugs.

21:07

>> I don't know anything about it.

21:08

Literally I just saw a tweet and I put

21:10

it in the newsletter. Um I I I will say

21:12

I do have a history of finding um

21:16

>> you do

21:18

Eli Liy. Yeah. So, so years ago, this

21:21

was like in 2015 or 16, I think it was

21:24

2016,

21:26

uh, I did a lot of research on, uh,

21:29

imunotherapy.

21:30

Um, which is basically a cancer cure.

21:33

You know, it's a drug that attacks

21:35

cancer cells, which your immune system

21:37

does not. Uh, and bought, uh, something

21:40

called Kite Pharmaceuticals, which was a

21:43

imunotherapy biotech. Uh, and it and and

21:46

basically it was a it was a

21:47

three-bagger. got taken out I think by

21:49

Bristol Meyers. Uh and then uh a few

21:53

years ago I was early on the GLP1's

21:56

trade. Um

21:57

>> I made you made a bunch of money for

21:59

subscribers. So shout out. Yeah.

22:00

>> Yeah. So you know this like I kind of

22:04

have a philosophy about this like

22:08

invest then investigate, right? the

22:11

first time you hear about something, you

22:14

should buy the stock and then you do

22:17

your research because inevitably what

22:18

happens is people say, "Oh, it's a

22:20

baldness drug." All right, I'm going to

22:22

research that. I'll get to that later.

22:24

And then they never do. And then the

22:26

stock's up 200% and they miss the whole

22:29

trade. So, I gave it to my subscribers.

22:32

I'm like, "Look, you know, I'm just

22:34

putting it out there. Research this and

22:37

uh you know, maybe it turns into

22:39

something."

22:40

>> Yeah. that that is good. You know, I um

22:43

actually have been looking into some of

22:44

these stocks myself. So, I think pro

22:46

probably uh there's one Absky Corp that

22:50

is uh it says it's AI powered drug

22:52

discovery. So, I get a little skeptical

22:54

there. I think the the other one is uh

22:56

the ticker is m like you have a long

22:59

flowing mane such as you do Jared and

23:01

really what it is is just extremely

23:03

highowered roane minoxidil which which I

23:06

I'll be honest like I'm I'm on uh

23:08

minoxidil and normally the reason that

23:10

they don't crank up the dosage a ton on

23:12

minoxidil is because it can cause like

23:13

heart palpitations and heart issues. So

23:14

they're saying we're able to crank up

23:17

the dosage and give people a ridiculous

23:19

amount of minoxidil in a way that isn't

23:21

going to give them uh you know heart

23:23

issues. not heart issues, but you know,

23:24

heart palpitations. And it's like, it's

23:26

not like it's some drug. Do we know if

23:28

it works or do we not know? We know we

23:30

know it works. It's extremely powerful

23:31

at like growing hair. It's just being

23:33

able to do that extra extra power.

23:35

There's another company begins with a C

23:38

um and and it's a European company that

23:40

also has uh an angle there. But I um

23:43

yeah, I've been looking at myself. So,

23:44

when I saw you were writing about it, uh

23:47

just wanted to to say that. Jared, do

23:49

you do you think that AI is a is a

23:52

bubble? I do. I do. I'm not I'm not

23:55

bashful to say that. I do. It's um

23:59

Let me let me just back up for a second.

24:01

Um you know, we were talking about the

24:03

debt issuance from Google and the

24:05

hyperscalers and stuff like that. Like

24:08

uh you know, in my lifetime, this is the

24:11

first time I've seen um tech being

24:15

financed with debt.

24:17

>> Like usually you finance tech with

24:20

equity, right? because the asset has a

24:24

very short lifespan. It's going to be

24:25

obsolete in a couple years. You don't

24:27

want to take out 10 or 30 years worth of

24:30

debt to finance an asset that's going to

24:32

be around for two or three years. Um so,

24:36

uh you know, the the.com bubble was all

24:38

equity. Like nobody was issuing debt and

24:41

this time we have a lot of debt. Um and

24:43

the debt the leverage is what's get

24:46

people into trouble. Also, this is debt

24:48

at high interest rates, you know. So, I

24:51

don't know what the spread of Google

24:52

paper is over treasuries. It's probably

24:54

like 60 or 80 basis points or something

24:56

like that, you know, but they're

24:58

essentially paying a 6% coupon on this

25:00

debt. It's it's it's it's a lot. You

25:03

know,

25:03

>> it's certainly higher than the 2% or 2

25:05

and a half% that they pay in in 2021.

25:08

Jared, I do think though, you hear this

25:10

argument that with bond yields rising,

25:12

are the hyperscalers going to stop

25:14

issuing debt? It's like no way. like

25:16

they they don't care at all about

25:19

obviously the the finance people on

25:20

working at these companies are aware of

25:22

this issue but like is are the CEOs

25:24

going to say oh my god the the the the

25:27

30-year Treasury you'll just hit 6% stop

25:29

capex stop cap like it's not going to

25:32

happen

25:34

it's not going to happen Jared tell us

25:36

about your new book

25:38

>> yeah so I have it right here it's the

25:40

awesome portfolio and uh I'll tell you a

25:44

secret about this book in a second but

25:45

first First of all, um the way we save

25:49

and invest for retirement is very very

25:52

dumb. And when I say we, I mean your

25:53

average person, right? Um basically

25:57

ideas catch on when they are simple.

26:00

Okay? And people have been taught a very

26:03

simple thing over the last 20 or 30

26:05

years. Very simple. You say, "Put all

26:08

your money in the S&P 500 in the index

26:11

fund, dollar cost average it, ride out

26:15

the volatility, and never sell." That's

26:18

very easy for people to understand. And

26:20

that has worked for a really long time.

26:22

Maybe it continues to work. I don't

26:24

care. That's not the point, right? The

26:26

point is that when you invest in an

26:28

index, you get the returns of the index,

26:31

which are very good, but you also get

26:33

the volatility of the index. So, me

26:37

personally, maybe I'm just more

26:38

conservative. I don't want to put my

26:41

life savings into something that moves

26:43

around 1% a day or back during the

26:47

tariff tantrum last year is moving

26:49

around 9% a day. I don't want my life

26:52

savings in that. I don't want to take a

26:54

20 30 40 50% draw down, right? Because

26:58

draw downs affect your psychology. So if

27:02

you take a giant draw down on your life

27:04

savings, number one, you're going to be

27:06

miserable and you're going to be

27:08

miserable until you get back up to the

27:10

high water mark. And number two, there

27:12

is a decent chance that you're just

27:14

going to tap out and sell and stop the

27:18

pain. And that's the worst thing you can

27:19

possibly do because then you stop

27:21

compounding, right? But we've seen this

27:23

a bunch of times before. This is the

27:26

antidote to that. So instead of just

27:28

being in stocks, you're diversified

27:30

across asset classes. Stocks, bonds,

27:34

gold, cash, and real estate in equal

27:37

proportions. The interesting thing is is

27:41

that you're only giving up about 1 to

27:43

two percentage points in performance,

27:46

but your volatility is cut in half. And

27:49

the worst draw down that has ever

27:51

happened with this portfolio is down

27:53

12%. whereas about 40% for the S&P 500

27:57

in a calendar year. Right? So this is

28:01

the answer. This is the answer. And it's

28:03

the answer not just be, you know, look,

28:06

if you buy the S&P 500, you will have

28:10

more money when you retire than if you

28:13

have the awesome portfolio. That's if

28:15

you can hang on. If you can hang on. But

28:19

this is if you want to be happy. If you

28:22

don't want to be checking your account

28:24

balance every day, seeing what the

28:26

market is doing and panicking when the

28:28

market is down three or four percent.

28:30

>> People should buy the book. We'll

28:31

include a link to the publisher and on

28:34

Amazon. Jared, two sentiment questions

28:37

for you. One, you made a brilliant call

28:40

saying that private credit is screwed

28:42

and alternative investments generally,

28:43

private equity and private credit. You

28:46

were not a believer in that. I think we

28:47

did that interview maybe two years ago.

28:50

Yeah. And I'm almost positive that

28:51

pretty much every single alternative

28:53

asset stock uh has is lower now than it

28:56

was then.

28:59

We had a wash out in private credit and

29:01

some fundraising issues and literally

29:03

every single day it was these Bloomberg

29:04

articles about private credit doom,

29:06

private credit doom. Has your sentiment

29:08

view changed given how much the

29:11

negativity is has been in the headlines

29:14

uh at the beginning of the year?

29:16

>> No. Um, I mean, yes, like I Yes and no.

29:21

Um, I was very bearish when we talked a

29:23

couple years ago. Uh, I'm still bearish.

29:26

Um, I think all of this is connected.

29:29

AI, private credit, uh, you know,

29:33

something else like I think it's all

29:35

connected. Um, and I think if AI

29:39

unwinds, private credit will also or

29:42

vice versa. Um, so what I think what I

29:46

told you at the time, what I was telling

29:47

everybody at the time is this was going

29:49

to take a long time to play out. In the

29:52

public markets, when something unwinds,

29:56

there is liquidity. You can sell, right?

29:59

And the market will repric very quickly.

30:02

In the private markets, that doesn't

30:04

happen. So, what you've seen in private

30:06

equity and private credit is stuff just

30:09

being held, you know, like like

30:12

portfolio companies not being sold for a

30:15

really long time and it's just going to

30:17

take a long time to find that liquidity.

30:20

Um, so, you know, a bare market in the

30:23

privates is just going to take a much

30:25

longer time to play out, but we have not

30:27

found the bottom yet. We haven't

30:29

>> in private credit and private equity.

30:31

>> Yeah.

30:31

>> Another sentiment question for you,

30:33

Jared. I'm sure you've heard the

30:35

following statement. There's a bubble in

30:37

the stock market, but the bubble is not

30:39

in valuation. The bubble is in earnings.

30:43

When you hear that, is that not just an

30:46

admission that the bears are wrong, that

30:48

the earnings are so good that oh,

30:50

there's a bubble not in valuation, but

30:52

there's a bubble in this other thing.

30:53

>> I haven't heard that before, but that's

30:54

a really interesting quote. Um yeah, I

30:58

mean I put a I put a chart in my

31:00

newsletter uh today, yesterday,

31:04

um about it was the S&P relative to

31:07

wages and how it had completely

31:09

decoupled from wages over time. Um

31:13

but really if you put a if you overlay a

31:16

chart on that of corporate profits as a

31:20

percentage of GDP, it looks pretty

31:22

similar, right? So corporate profits

31:25

have gone up a lot and there are a lot

31:28

of analoges to the.com bubble 25 years

31:31

ago 26 years ago but the one thing

31:34

that's different is there are profits

31:36

you know I mean except for maybe in open

31:39

AI and anthropic but you know there are

31:42

profits so yes but that revenue growth

31:45

in anthropic and open AI has been

31:48

tremendous so I just a bare argument was

31:51

like where's the revenue in the in the

31:52

in the labs OpenAI Enthropic and I just

31:55

want to say as someone who's calling

31:56

kind of calling balls and strikes the

31:58

revenue growth has been quite quite good

32:01

like among the best ever for history of

32:03

companies.

32:04

>> You know more than me on that.

32:06

>> Well Jared thanks so much for joining

32:07

us. People can find you on X at daily

32:09

dirtnap and we'll link to your book the

32:12

awesome portfolio.

32:13

>> Awesome. Thanks Jack.

Interactive Summary

Jared Dillian discusses his bullish stance on the bond market, arguing against the 'mind virus' that inflation and deficits make bonds uninvestable. He touches on the current state of stocks, noting that while semiconductors may have seen a retail exit, institutional positioning remains heavy. Dillian further critiques the AI narrative as a bubble fueled by debt rather than equity, discusses the potential for a 'long-term' downturn in private credit, and introduces his new book, 'The Awesome Portfolio,' which advocates for a diversified, lower-volatility approach to investing.

Suggested questions

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