Billionaire WARNS: "You're NOT Ready For What's Next"
787 segments
One thing I find interesting is you're
saying that there's this sweet spot in
the middle.
>> Yes.
>> Where you you still get the the upside.
>> dynamism?
>> there's a sweet spot in the middle?
>> And decency.
>> It's a very narrow sweet spot and it's
very hard to achieve because Germany has
really tried so hard and they've like
they their economy is collapsing. They
their economy is going so badly at the
moment. Um and they've tried everything.
They've got workers have to be on the
board for example of every company
you've got to have a worker on the
board. So they're like doing as much as
he can to do inclusion and the German
economy
>> Okay, so where does it work?
>> Okay, but here here's the thing is it's
it is simply not fair
to say the German economy is collapsing.
Like have you been to Germany?
>> Yeah. [laughter]
>> Like come on. Like have you been to
Stockholm?
>> Okay.
>> Like these places are incredibly high.
>> functioning.
>> Yeah, there's definitely a forward
momentum, but the German car industry is
getting hollowed out right now.
>> China?
>> Right, China's doing that.
>> Yeah.
>> just because workers are on the board of
German companies that that that
and German people are unhappy
you can't necessarily connect these
things.
>> I just want to acknowledge though that
like there are places like Dubai which
are very close to laissez-faire
capitalism with a sovereign wealth fund
and just just hold just hold on. If you
talk to someone who lives in Dubai they
freaking love Dubai. Like they they are
so they're the happiest people uh
like and they call them the the
entrepreneurs entrepreneurs people.
>> Yeah, the rich people not the not the
poor brown people who are Well, I
[laughter] mean
>> because they bust Indians and don't
they?
>> You Well, they they
yes and also when I talk to a lot of the
Uber drivers there and I talk to people
who work in cafes there and all that
sort of they're all quite pro Dubai as
well.
>> Isn't it but that's because their other
options are horrific.
>> Yeah.
>> That is it's probably more extreme than
equality, isn't it?
>> It it's um
It's extremely equality but because the
place is growing until recently
obviously with
right the place is growing it feels like
there's a rising tide for everybody.
There's something about economic growth
that makes people very very happy and
there's something about a lack of
economic growth that makes people
miserable here in the UK for example.
>> Okay, but but just again
Dubai is a place
the UAE has been powered by the most
extraordinary gusher of free cash
probably the planet has ever seen. I
mean you can look up on your
iPad there the like the tailwind that
economy gets from the unlimited
resources
>> say that's why people love Dubai. They
love it because of the entrepreneurial
vibe like
>> Who loves it?
>> Like ambitious people.
>> Yeah, so this is the rich
>> well no I see I see there no I see young
people who want to have a crack.
>> And they're because they're they're rich
relative to the people doing the work
the labor.
>> Well they're what they're looking for is
a place where their work will be
rewarded. Let's imagine the UK where
your ability to get on to capitalism
your first million or your first two
million is very easily low taxed in
order to get things going for you
economically. I I just want to see a
situation where ambitious
like your ambitious people like what I
hate is that I see these young people
who are really super smart. I wish they
were here building and they're like you
can't succeed in the UK they'll just tax
it off you. As soon as you earn anything
they take it.
>> What if you're not ambitious?
>> I think you're benefited by a lot of the
ambitious people. So when when you get
one in a
if you get one in 10 people who are
entrepreneurial or one in 100 people who
are entrepreneurial they're creating
optionality they're creating companies
>> is this? The US is
sort of set up you know the American
dream.
This is more of a US approach isn't it?
And what we have there is higher
inequality.
>> I'll give you two to to one extreme the
US you hit the top rate of income tax
when you hit $700,000.
In the UK it's 100,000 and and it
immediately goes to 60% tax, 62% tax,
and then it drops to 45% after that.
Like but there's this kind of like
>> Does it really?
>> Yeah, it's this it's this it's this
weird pain No, it's this insane thing
where you basically pay 20%, 40%, 60%,
45%, and it's this kind of
>> But to the point of You should probably
fix that. People prefer the US The US
approach sounds more like what you're
saying.
>> to the US? Like a lot of Brits are
actually going to the US?
>> has an inequality has higher inequality,
which means it's probably more likely
that the pitchforks will come out.
>> Well, for an ambitious person, they
don't care about inequality, right?
Inequality is the opportunity to get
ahead.
>> might not, but from a social
perspective, the pitchforks are probably
going to come out sooner in the US
because of that inequality than in
somewhere else.
>> I They
They seem to be coming out here in a big
way. Like here in the UK
>> here, but they're also coming out in the
United States.
>> at Look at Zack Polanski
uh is is gaining a huge political
movement.
>> Joram Mundani in the UK?
Sorry, in New York is
We're seeing a rise of socialism in the
United States.
>> Okay, but Joram Mundani calls himself a
socialist because he does not have
another word for what he is doing.
>> He has said seize the means of
production. He's said it. And he said
take houses off landlords. Like he he's
a he's a card-carrying socialist.
>> Yeah, but he hasn't done any really
socialist things. I I just think that
there there's a bit of a confusion. But
asking wealthy people to pay a little
bit more tax is not socialism.
Uh standing up grocery stores in food
deserts because no grocery store will
will will will do it because it's not
profitable enough is not socialism. This
is the government provisioning
benefits to citizens. Fixing potholes,
making bike ramps, whatever the stuff
he's doing. These are not socialist
things. What they are is not strictly
neoliberal things, which is just like
letting rich people run roughshod over
everybody else.
>> The thing that I see with say a food
desert and a store is that the tax
system is so punitive that a small
opportunity like setting up a grocery
store with all the taxes and all the
regulations and all the stuff the
government puts on you is just not worth
doing it. There are better opportunities
out there. Like I'm not talking about
removing it for rich people. I'm saying
for startups, for small businesses, for
businesses that employ less than 200 if
you basically create very positive very
positive conditions for small businesses
to get started, they will set up a
grocery store in a in a bad neighborhood
because they go, "Yeah, you know what? I
can figure out how it works in this
>> Do you think there's a chance that we
have a a bit of a bias as entrepreneurs?
Everyone at this table is an
entrepreneur.
>> Yes.
>> And for whatever reason, I think a lot
of mine might be some like I don't know
trauma or whatever, I had a bias towards
setting up a business and taking that
risk. Whereas like my other three
siblings, they didn't do that. And I
don't know what I did to have that bias
within me.
Like if you really think about it, I
it's it was probably something my
parents didn't intend to do. Which meant
that at 18 when my four three siblings
went to university and sort of followed
that more, one could say safer path,
well, yeah, safer path, I dropped out.
>> were your parents when you
>> Oh, they didn't speak to them. My mom
was
Yeah. My mom's Nigerian as well, so she
didn't she left school when she was a
child, didn't get an education, can't
read, can't write.
>> tough
>> Tough conversation. That's an
understatement of
>> [laughter]
>> what happened. But for whatever reason,
that's the path that I took and I'm I I
can acknowledge that I'm in a bit of a
minority.
>> Yeah.
>> And I think I sometimes consider like
maybe I don't realize that through
privilege or through some genetic
privilege or whatever, I had this
particular orientation towards like
entrepreneurialism
that maybe other people don't always
have and that means that to start a
grocery store
>> I get crucified in the comments. Not
everyone can be an entrepreneur, right?
I'm not saying everyone can be an
entrepreneur. I've never said that.
>> But the grocery store analogy there is
someone would start that grocery store
if it was easier.
>> Well,
>> But not everybody would.
>> There's always a risk to reward ratio,
and government brings in all sorts of
regulations, and the government only
really thinks about big businesses. If
you talk to anyone in government, small
businesses don't exist, and they just
simply think, "Why hasn't Tesco done it?
Or why hasn't like Walmart done it?"
>> Yeah, I I've never started a business in
the UK, but I can tell you that in the
United States, the the barrier to
setting up a grocery store in a food
desert is not the regulation, it's
Safeway. It's the supply chain. It's the
It's all the stuff that you've
described, which makes it incredibly
difficult for for for somebody to
operate a single location grocery store.
>> Like your friend's car.
>> Yeah, and this is the this is Yeah, what
do you do about that?
>> Uh so, what I would do
is I would I would And again, in the
United States, we used to have lots of
laws that pointed the economy towards
small businesses. So, if I was in
charge, I would impose a much higher
minimum wage, but I would do it
progressively. All the labor standards,
all the all of the regulations would be
imposed progressively. And in terms of
regulation, I would make it far like for
a big company, there's a lot of regs,
right? You have to follow every rule to
the T.
For a small business,
you have a lot more flexibility. It's
impo- because because we need the
standards,
but it turns out to be really hard as a
single proprietor, even to even to read
the manual, right? To know what you're
supposed to do. So, to me, it would all
be progressive, so it would be easy to
get capital, easy to start a business,
relatively unencumbered by by
regulation, although constrained to a
certain extent.
There are terrible things that small
business people do, too.
>> Wait, how do you make it easier to get
capital?
>> Oh, you could have government programs
that were designed to help small
businesses get off the ground.
>> We have the British Bank that
under
under writes for the first 25,000 of
loans here.
>> have the Small Business Administration
in the United States that did a lot of
that work.
>> Yeah, so we we have a lending
institution here that is 75%
underwritten by government for 25,000
pounds startup loan, right? So there is
some some schemes that can can work. I
started all my companies on a on a
credit card. The key thing is is there's
a difference between entrepreneurials
and startups that are intending to scale
and just small businesses that want to
exist as a small business. I'm really
big on the idea that we want to we want
communities that have lots of small
businesses even if they have no
intention to scale and exit and any of
those sorts of things.
>> That old fashioned thing, right? Where
you just had a grocery store.
>> Yeah, and and it's a good and it's good
to do that.
>> trying to create Walmart.
>> Yeah.
>> You just wanted to run a grocery store.
>> It's hard though, isn't it? Cuz
>> You want to be CVS or you you want to be
you want to be a network.
>> But with a grocery store idea, if you've
got mom and pop grocery store here, then
next to it you have let's say I don't
know in the UK it's called Spar, which
is a grocery store, or 7-Eleven. The
problem is if those are next to each
other and one has
economies of scale, i.e. 7-Eleven can
buy the cucumber
>> Yes.
>> for 20% of the cost of the mom and pop
shop, then if you're on that street, the
7-Eleven is going to survive.
>> That's why that's why we tilt towards
small
>> States used to have laws that expressly
prohibited that.
>> And why did they get rid of them?
>> Neoliberalism.
>> So they got rid of the restrictions on
>> Yeah, there there used to be express
laws to make sure that big companies
could not buy raw materials cheaper than
than small companies. Like when I was
young, when I was your age, if you
wanted to buy a competitor,
you were sweating bullets because you
had that had to be reviewed by a body
and if they thought that you were
consolidating too much, they would just
say no.
>> But if you think I think about all my
friends that have opened retail stores
through their companies and they can
only do that when they get really big,
because their e-commerce business is
supporting it. So, if you think about I
know the Gymshark representatives and
Under Armour active. So, you can't
>> Okay, with respect to retail, you were
largely correct. It depends on what kind
of retail. Like you could have a gym,
you can't e-commerce a gym, or you know,
there are all kinds of retail, some of
which is somewhat immune from e-commerce
and some of which is getting destroyed
by e-commerce. Doesn't It doesn't matter
if we're talking about retail. They were
all
regional manufacturing companies,
regional everything.
>> Sure.
>> And it all went away, and you have never
experienced a world in which that used
to exist. Like your your entire business
experience is this sort of neoliberal
world of giant companies.
>> True. And the world I grew up in
>> Yeah, we're like you're young, medium,
old,
>> right? But I I remember what it was like
to go to the video store and select
videos from the video store. I remember
what it was like, yeah. Like I remember
going to the CD store and listening to
music and talking to the retail
employees. When I was growing up, the
cool kids worked at the CD store, the
geeky kids worked at the bookstore, and
everybody worked at the everyone else
worked at the grocery store.
>> Yeah.
>> And all of those business models are
gone. And this is what I mean, we need
to kind of tip back towards small
business experimentation being protected
and all of that. The other thing too,
and I should should raise this about
minimum wage and giving people more
money,
the bottom half of taxpayers in the UK
pay 9.5% of all the income taxes. The
government could remove taxes off of 50%
of workers in one move, and it would
cost 33 billion, and you just get rid of
that, and then every single person in
the bottom half of income earners gets a
10% pay rise to 15% pay rise, right?
>> I love it.
>> No, so where do we get the 32 billion
from?
>> Just Just keep in mind, their budget is
1.4 trillion.
>> I know, I know, I know. But we're going
to have to if
>> 1.4 trillion, you're talking about this
much to take 15 million people
>> Yeah, I agree. I'm just saying where
does the money go? Because I know what's
going to happen. Kiss Darmer is they
found this 20 million billion 20 billion
dollar black hole in the finances and
they and that's the reason why they're
saying they've had to cut back on
pensions and these kinds of things. So
if we add another 30 billion to that,
where do where do we where do we get the
money from?
>> You're talking about reduce the amount
of administrative burden to tax 15
million people and keep on top of the
tax on 15 million people. Just the sheer
volume of people who have to work at
HMRC.
>> I completely agree.
>> All of this insanity.
>> I'm saying where does the money come
from?
>> Yeah, so out of 1.4 trillion, I'm pretty
sure we could find half of 1% 1% of it
or whatever to get to get these number
of people out of tax. Um, I think we
could tax big corporations who are
taking the piss.
Uh, and I also think the economic
spending rounds of getting those people
those poor the poorer half of people
should not be paying tax. If you give
them more money, they'll spend more
money, right? Then they
>> Okay. I agree with you. So you're saying
tax big corporations more
in the UK at point of consumption.
>> Personally, I would make it a like it's
very similar to a broadcast license that
it's a fixed fee that's very hard to
wiggle out of.
>> So if I'm a let's say I'm an open AI.
>> Yeah, you might have a broadcast license
to pay
to to access this market.
>> So you're going to charge them say
you're say I'm going to charge open AI 4
billion 5 billion to access our market.
>> for example, Facebook is very much
broadcasting videos and content all the
time. So is YouTube, so is Google, all
that stuff. So you just simply say,
guys, the cost of doing business in this
country, if you want access to this
market, is a fixed broadcast license fee
of 500 million a year or whatever it is.
And you just say based on the number of
views that you guys get and how much
attention you suck out of our economy,
we just essentially tax the attention.
You're literally if people are spending
an hour a day on their phone doom
scrolling, we're that that is a
broadcast. You're broadcasting to our
people, so therefore we've got a
broadcast license. Um, so those are the
types of things that I would look at
because they're very hard to wiggle out
of.
>> Do you think then these these companies
like an open eye would would then as we
said earlier just increase the
subscription fee in this market? And you
see this sometimes where in certain
countries something is cheaper. I
remember going to the United I I used to
go to the United States to buy my Apple
products cuz it was cheaper there.
>> Yeah.
>> And then in the UK it cost me like not
even not even a little bit more. It was
like hundreds of dollars more to buy a
laptop here. The same laptop in this
market versus this one cost different
amounts of money.
>> They they may choose to try and pass on
that consumption tax to to consumers.
Maybe they do do that. Um, maybe we
could try and avoid maybe we could try
and legislate against that that they
have to essentially be on parity with
where they are in other markets that
they have to charge parity. Um, if we
don't if we don't do anything, we
essentially have nurses and uh, you
know,
like teachers and all the people who are
in the normal 50% of the economy whose
job is now to hold up the economy while
Starbucks doesn't pay taxes, while
Amazon doesn't pay taxes, while Google
doesn't pay taxes.
>> And and Steve, I think all your
questions are really really good, but
they all point to the same thing, which
it it which is that you know, the
economy is a collective action problem.
>> Mhm.
>> Right? And
>> said global action problem earlier.
>> it's a global collective action problem.
And if we want
if we want robust solutions to these
problems, we're going to have to
robustly coordinate activity across the
world.
And you know, like for during the Biden
administration they tried really hard to
do this global
profit tax where where uh, but that
collapsed under the weight of pressure.
But all you know, again, all of your
questions I think are really good, but
they all point to the same fundamental
weakness of of of governance.
>> And Nick, you you you need to talk to
your billionaire mates and also say, if
we don't start investing in the
economies that we do business with,
which you are saying, right? Of course,
right?
>> I I It's a lonely business. I'll just
tell you.
>> But it's But it's like [laughter]
it's like
those CEOs of those companies
>> [clears throat]
>> you know, you drain this you drain the
whole economy out and you and and then
what then what next? Like
>> I think on this pass-through problem I
was thinking I was looking at different
ways that this ends up being applied.
So, if you think about the Big Mac, the
Big Mac costs different things in
different states depending on how much
tax that that that state charges. So, in
Oregon the Big Mac is $8, whereas in
Chicago it's English $9.
If you think about like bookstores, you
can buy one book on the high street for
$20, the same book online is $10 because
they're passing through the cost. So,
it's conceivable that if we we say to
big corporations, right, you guys are
going to pay a bigger tax to sell into
the UK, then the UK consumer
that they'll they might pass that onto
the UK consumer.
And they might look at different markets
and because you know, they might say as
a company, we want to make 30% margins.
And the way to make 30% margins in the
UK is to bump the cost.
>> could say I'm going to use a VPN and
pretend that I'm going to be in a
different market and pay a lower price.
And doesn't matter, you still have to
pay the broadcast license if you want to
be available in our in our country.
These are hard problems and we need to
know who is the person that we're
targeting. It's it's the BlackRocks of
the world, it's the it's the big banks
of the world, it's the big mortgage like
>> I had a So, I had a I had a private
conversation with a CTO of a very large
company, technology business, and he was
saying to me he goes, "I don't I don't
think the UK understands the situation
it's putting itself in and the EU with
all this regulation." He said to me,
um
"that we sell this particular product.
It's a physical product. And because the
UK and I think EU have put this new law
in where you have to have removable
batteries.
>> Mhm.
>> Interestingly, the unintended
consequence of that is we have to stock
more lithium batteries, more of them go
into landfill, and also your devices
break because they're no longer
waterproof.
So, you're going to actually it's
harming the environment and also he said
the thing you guys don't realize is that
you're actually not a big market anymore
for us and because South America's
coming online we actually don't have to
sell the product here and you think
about this in terms of some of the
regulations around AI as well.
When a new product launches on a chat
GPT
it goes in the US first because of
regulations and then maybe
>> No, it goes in the US first because it's
the biggest market.
>> Biggest market but also we have we're
our regulations around some software and
GDPR and all these kinds of things means
that sometimes we just don't get the
features. And sometimes in my history in
our history of building
the previous business I was in
as creators we would sometimes have to
wait 12 or 18 months to get the same
tools that my competitors
in the United States could use.
Monetization tools they they'd have the
monetization tools first and then we'd
have to wait 18 months.
>> The economy is a set of trade-offs. Like
that is the problem. Like economics is
called a set of trade the actual
definition of economics is making
trade-offs
and picking picking a trade-offs. I
totally get it. Like regulation does
actually suck for consumers and for
businesses
and like the the EU is now
over-regulated to the extent that you
can't even take a a lid off of bottle
without you know the government being
involved with how the lid comes off the
bottle and it's killing it's killing our
dynamism. We are really
>> And the US is under-regulated and if you
buy chicken in a in a store and and
don't cook it
>> could be anything.
>> one in three chances you'll you'll
you'll you'll get either E. coli or
salmonella
>> [laughter]
>> and your life expectancy is lower.
>> Exactly. It's all trade-offs.
>> It comes back from the US and goes oh my
goodness I hate I hate eating food in
the US
>> It's all trade-offs. It's all
trade-offs.
>> Does this not then mean our ultimate
conclusion of this conversation is
around
morals and ethics around the trade-offs
that we think are the right ones to
make. Yes. so it's a question really of
morals and ethics.
>> Yes.
Human flourishing.
Yes. 100%.
>> The purpose of the economy is is to
improve human human lives.
>> The way to do this is to massively
maximize small business power because
>> I think it's more complicated than that.
>> When when people when people have to
when I have to work shoulder to shoulder
with my workers, I treat people well,
right? When I'm a mega corporation who
have faceless workers down on the
factory floor that I will never meet, I
will never sit next to on a plane, I
will never come in contact with my
workers, I can treat them however I
like.
>> Why do you think that's reductive, Nick?
>> Uh well, I think that what Dana's saying
is true and massively insufficient.
Of course, I mean, we're in violent
agreement about the small business
point. Like, I don't want to be naive
and think we should go back to the '60s
or something like that. Like, I don't
think that's true. But again, here's
what the new economics shows, that
corporate consolidation
increases prices,
lowers wages,
decreases consumer choice, and decreases
the rate of innovation.
>> Right? And I 100% agree.
>> Because innovation again, that the
conventional view of innovation, the the
conventional economic view of in in
innovation is this sort of great man
theory is you have this smart, rich guy
who's sitting somewhere and he
he or she has this amazing idea and
that's innovation. That is not what
innovation is. Innovation is always
combinatorial. In technology makes
itself out of itself.
You You start with a rock.
The rock The rock was our first
technology. And you get a lot of stuff
with rocks.
And we also had sticks. Actually, sticks
were our first technology. But you tie a
rock to a stick,
you have a hammer,
a spear, an arrow, an axe, a shovel.
It goes on and on and on. And what that
means in terms of policy is that because
innovation is combinatorial,
the more diverse people in a network
who come together with different ideas
and different sets of experiences, that
is what drives the rate of innovation.
And this is
mathematically demonstrated that a
diverse group of people working on a
problem will absolutely consistently
outperform a a a homogeneous group of
high performers.
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Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video features a debate on economic policy, focusing on the trade-offs between innovation, regulation, and the role of small businesses versus large corporations in the UK and US. The speakers explore the impact of taxation, corporate consolidation, and the importance of fostering entrepreneurial environments to improve human flourishing.
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