Ukraine Just MASTERED Something So IMPENETRABLE… Russia Knows War is LOST!
208 segments
For years, it has been something that Russia could use to devastate Ukraine. Vast swarms of drones
and missiles have been used to strike Ukraine’s cities and shatter its infrastructure. However,
necessity is the mother of invention, and Ukraine has developed into the best in the world at
countering the one thing that Russia relied on. Russia is now like a bug, as Ukraine is swatting
down everything that flies, combining mastery of a key air defense system with new technologies that
are having a huge impact on Ukraine’s interception rate. First, we take you to the night of April 15.
On that night, Russia launched yet another of its long-range attacks against Ukraine. It wasn’t the
largest aerial strike that Russia has unleashed. By the end of the attack, Ukraine worked out that
Russia had launched a trio of Iskander-M ballistic missiles at its territory from the Rostov region,
along with 324 strike drones, which included a swarm of about 250 Shahed-type drones. Those
drones flew from seven different locations inside Russia and the occupied territories,
which makes Russia’s goal clear: Overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses with drones so that the
missiles could get through. It’s a strategy that Russia has used to great effect before. However,
on this night, Ukraine had the perfect counter. In less than an hour, Ukraine’s air
defenses intercepted all three of the Iskander-M missiles that Russia launched. On top of that,
Ukraine took out 309 of the incoming Russian drones. It was also tracking three others that
were still in Ukrainian airspace but appeared to have lost their way en route to their targets.
Assuming those three get taken down, the math behind this defense tells an interesting story.
For the missiles alone, Ukraine achieved a 100% interception rate. On the drone front, only 13 of
Russia’s unmanned aerial vehicles managed to get through to their intended targets, United24 Media
reports. That leaves 311 that failed, which gives Ukraine an interception rate of 95.9%. Add the
ballistic missiles and drones together, and that interception rate climbs to 96% - right in line
with the 95% rate that Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov (mee-KHY-loh FEH-doh-rohv) wants
his country to achieve. This is a headline in its own right. Ukraine has set a massive target
and has achieved it. That alone is an indicator that Ukraine has built world-class air defenses,
which is a topic that we’re going to be exploring in more depth later. However,
there’s an aspect of this story that has caught everybody off guard. Ukraine intercepted all three
of Russia’s ballistic missiles. That’s newsworthy in terms of saving Ukrainian citizens from a whole
lot of destructive Russian force. But that isn’t the most important part of the story.
How Ukraine is managing to carry out these types of interceptions is the true proof that it has
become a master of an air defense system that wasn’t even designed on its territory. Ukraine
would likely have destroyed Russia’s ballistic missiles with Patriot interceptors. And it’s using
those interceptors in a way that bucks the entire doctrine of the U.S. and NATO. All was revealed
by a unit commander of a Ukrainian formation that operates Patriot air defense systems,
who recently spoke to Air Command West, which is part of Ukraine’s Air Force. That unit commander
revealed that Ukraine has found a way to make its Patriot missile stockpiles last longer,
and it has done so by becoming the most efficient user of the Patriot system to date. How? It all
comes down to the typical rules of engagement for using the Patriot to take out a target.
The official NATO protocols call for the users of a Patriot system to fire between two and four
interceptor missiles at whatever is coming their way. There’s plenty of logic behind this doctrine.
The more interceptors you fire, the greater the chance of at least one of those missiles taking
out the target. The challenge emerges when you have a limited number of interceptor missiles
and a large number of targets that need to be shot out of the sky. Ukraine has found a solution to
that challenge. And it’s a solution that bucks all conventions. “We try to use as few missiles
as possible. Even if the rules of engagement call for the use of two to four missiles against
certain difficult targets, we destroy them with one,” the unit commander claims in the video.
What this tells us is that Ukraine’s Patriot crews have managed to refine their targeting
and engagement capabilities beyond anything that the U.S. or NATO thought possible. The two-to-four
doctrine was created, in part, because NATO knew that crews operating the Patriot wouldn’t have
extensive experience using the system outside of training. A much different reality has emerged in
Ukraine. Russia’s non-stop aerial assaults mean that Ukraine’s Patriot crews are combat-tested to
a degree that no other users of the American air defense system could hope to be. The old adage
says that practice makes perfect. Ukraine has proven that, as constant practice has allowed
it to figure out how to maximize its limited stockpiles of Patriot missiles. Think about what
this means in terms of cost and scale. If Ukraine followed NATO doctrine on the night of April 15,
it would have needed to rattle off up to 12 Patriot interceptors to deal with the three
Iskander-M ballistic missiles that Russia launched at its territory. Costs vary depending on the type
of interceptor that Ukraine launched. RBC-Ukraine says that a PAC-3 missile costs between $3 million
and $4 million. The U.S. Congress says that the cost of a Patriot interceptor falls into
the higher end of that spectrum, which means that following the NATO doctrine for Patriot
usage would have cost Ukraine up to $48 million to halt one Russian strike. But Ukraine is going
missile-for-missile. Rather than $48 million, Ukraine would have spent a maximum of $12 million
to take out the trio of Russian Iskander-M ballistic missiles on April 15. According to
Pravda, an Iskander-M ballistic missile costs around $3 million. Ukraine was still on the
losing end in terms of the cost battle. However, its mastery of the Patriot air defense system
means that it was only in the red by $3 million at the end of April 15, rather than the $39 million
gap Ukraine would have had to deal with if it followed the NATO doctrine. This is where the
mechanics of scale come into play, and not just for Ukraine. The U.S., NATO, and the Middle East
nations that use Patriot missile interceptors will all be looking at what Ukraine has just achieved,
and they’ll be asking questions. Chief among them is how necessary it is to use four missiles for a
single target. NATO says that’s what’s needed. But Ukraine is proving with its Patriots that
you can do with one what NATO says needs between two and four missiles. If other nations can mirror
Ukraine’s success, they can drastically reduce the cost of using their Patriot interceptors,
as well as take out more targets before their stockpiles are depleted. The U.S. should be
asking Ukraine how it does it. According to the European Consortium for Political Research,
the U.S. used over 800 Patriot missiles during the first three days of Operation Epic Fury. If the
U.S. had the sort of mastery over its own weapon that Ukraine has developed, it could have used
between 200 and 400 instead. Even at the lower end of the NATO doctrine spectrum, which would see the
U.S. using two interceptors per target, that’s a saving of $1.6 billion. These massive cost savings
are one of the reasons why Ukraine becoming the best in the world at using the Patriot could be
crucial for both itself and its allies. There is another, which is focused more on Ukraine itself.
But before we get into that, Defense Blog offers some interesting information that it has gleaned
from the Facebook video in which Ukraine’s use of one interceptor per ballistic missile was
revealed. It says that the Patriot launch unit shown in that video has been configured so that
it can carry two PAC-2 Patriot interceptors, along with four PAC-3 interceptors. Though
both are usable by a Patriot system, these missiles work very differently. The PAC-2,
as the name implies, is the older of the two. It destroys its target via proximity detonation,
which means that the PAC-2’s warhead explodes as the missile approaches the incoming threat,
with the resulting fragmentation leading to the destruction of that threat. PAC-3 missiles have a
hit-to-kill approach, which is what it says on the tin – the interceptor collides directly with the
incoming target before its warhead explodes. PAC-3 missiles require more accuracy, but they also
produce more reliable results. PAC-2 interceptors sacrifice a touch of reliability for a greater
chance to score a hit on an incoming threat, even if that hit doesn’t take the threat out. However,
Ukraine is operating both. The commander didn’t specify which type of interceptor missiles Ukraine
is using in its one-for-one strategy, which leads us to an interesting conclusion – it’s able to use
both. If that’s the case, Ukraine has figured out how to best utilize the strengths of each type of
interceptor in ways that nobody else has, which requires an exceptional level of target tracking
and fire control timing. And remember, this is all being done against ballistic missiles that
can travel at several times the speed of sound. The level of discipline and operational refinement
needed to pull off something like this is insane. At this point, there’s no arguing against the
fact that Ukraine is the best in the world at using the Patriot air defense system. But the
other little wrinkle to this story, and the second reason why this is so important for Ukraine, is
that this is a skill born as much out of necessity as it is the result of growing expertise. Before
we explain what that means, this is a quick reminder that you’re watching The Military Show.
If you want to see more of this kind of insight, make sure you’re subscribed to the channel. So,
Ukraine is cutting down on costs and increasing its kill counts through its mastery of the Patriot
interceptor. The real reason why this matters, for Ukraine perhaps more than any other nation, is
that Ukraine doesn’t have enough Patriot missiles to follow the NATO doctrine. It has received as
many as its allies can provide, with the U.S., Germany, and the Netherlands all having provided
interceptors from their stockpiles. However, the production of Patriot missiles is finite. Plus,
with the U.S. having tied itself up in a war with Iran that has seen it use huge numbers of Patriot
missiles, stockpiles that might have gone to Ukraine are instead being used to take out Iranian
Shahed drones. By reducing missile expenditure by a factor of up to four, Ukraine is conserving
ammunition that is in very short supply. Ukraine knows that it isn’t likely to get a reliable
source of Patriot interceptors for a while. The U.S., which was Ukraine’s main source, needs as
many of its missiles as it can for its campaign in Iran. Worse yet for Ukraine, U.S. Vice President
JD Vance went on record in mid-April to proclaim that ending military aid to Ukraine was “one of
the proudest achievements” of his time in the Trump administration. If that’s the case, Ukraine
seemingly can’t rely on the U.S. to restart military aid or to provide more Patriot missiles
as and when they’re needed. Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, pulls no punches when he
talks about Ukraine’s Patriot missile shortages. “The situation is in such a deficit, it could not
be any worse,” Zelenskyy declared in the wake of Vance’s comments. If Ukraine’s Patriot interceptor
situation is as dire as Zelenskyy says, then its mastery of the system is a necessity.
Ukraine simply can’t afford to burn through more Patriot missiles than it needs to counter Russia’s
ballistic missile threat. Stockpile woes aside, what Ukraine’s revolutionary use of the Patriot
shows us is that the country’s air defense strategy has evolved to the point where it’s
now among the best in the world. The Center for European Policy Analysis, or CEPA, highlights that
in an April 13 piece where it labels Ukraine’s air defenses as “world class,” while noting that those
defenses are still improving. And though Ukraine’s doctrine-bucking use of the Patriot is the example
that we’ve focused on for most of this video, there is something else that Ukraine has added
to its air defense game that makes it the envy of the rest of the world: Interceptor drones. Though
dealing with ballistic missiles still amounts to firing expensive missiles and expensive threats,
the real challenge for Ukraine lies in Russia’s use of Shahed-type attack drones,
both for strikes and to confuse air defense systems that should be focusing on missiles.
As we saw on April 15, Russia launches hundreds of Shahed drones alongside its missiles during
its air strikes. Even Ukraine’s hyper-efficiency with its Patriot systems can’t account for that.
Billions of dollars would be blown up in the skies if Ukraine started using Patriot missiles
to counter Shaheds, and the stockpile issues that are critical for Ukraine right now would be a
non-factor. Ukraine wouldn’t even have stockpiles to speak of. Interceptor drones have changed the
game for Ukraine’s air defense, and they would have been a huge factor in Ukraine achieving
the 96% interception rate we spoke about earlier during Russia’s April 15 attack. The numbers say
it all. On April 8, Fedorov noted that Ukraine’s interceptor drones destroyed 33,000 of Russia’s
strike drones in March. That number covers unmanned aerial vehicles of all types, not just
the long-range Shahed drones that Russia launches. 33,000 is also twice as many drones as Ukraine’s
interceptors destroyed during the previous month, and this drone destruction is likely why Ukraine’s
overall drone interception rate rose to 89.9% in March. February saw that rate hit 85.6%,
which was already a substantial improvement over the 80.2% rate recorded back in December.
This pattern is also paired with the fact that Russia has been launching more drones at Ukraine,
CEPA points out. March alone saw Russia fire 28% more drones at Ukraine, and Ukraine still
intercepted more of them. Ukraine’s mastery of air defense was cast into an even stronger spotlight
by its Ministry of Defense. The 89.9% interception rate we mentioned earlier covers both missiles and
drones. If we only focus on Shahed-type drones, then Russia fired 6,463 at Ukraine in March, of
which 5,835 were intercepted. That amounts to an interception rate of 90.25%, which is incredible,
given the sheer volume of drones that Russia is launching. But here’s where Ukraine’s interceptor
drones really shine: They cost far less than Russia’s Shahed-type drones. According to
Euronews, a single interceptor drone costs Ukraine between €1,000 and €4,000, or around $1,170 to
$4,700, to make. A Russian Shahed costs between €25,000 and €40,000, or $29,400 and $47,100,
to build. Both are low-cost weapons. Shaheds costing so little is the main reason why using
multi-million-dollar missiles to counter them, as the U.S. has been doing in Iran, leads to a
country burning through billions of dollars in a matter of days. But with its interceptor drones,
Ukraine has developed a counter to the Shaheds that costs as little as a 20th of what Russia is
spending on building its long-range drones. What we’re seeing from Ukraine right now is
that it is tackling the core challenge of modern air defense. That challenge isn’t taking out big
missiles with expensive interceptors, though that is still a part of the overall problem. The far
greater challenge is finding the balance between cost and volume. Russia has already done that on
the strike end. A handful of missiles combined with hundreds of drones allows Russia to hit
hard without spending as much as it would if it relied on missiles alone. The irony here is that
Ukraine has taken this approach and applied it to defense. Ukraine is also using fewer missiles and
more drones; only its interceptor drones are so cheap that they eliminate any benefit that
Russia experienced from using its Shaheds in the first place. Shahed drones were supposed to make
airstrikes cheaper for Russia and more expensive for Ukraine. Now, the tables have turned,
and it's Russia that is losing more money than Ukraine every time it attacks from the skies.
None of this has happened overnight. Ukraine has become a master of air defenses because Russia’s
attacks over the last few years have forced it to figure out ways to counter the sheer volume.
Interceptor drones, Patriot missiles, and much more are now part of a layered air defense model
that the former chairman of Ukraine’s Artificial Intelligence Committee, Vitaliy Goncharuk,
says was developed over 18 months that also saw Ukraine boost its propeller-driven drone
output significantly. Ukraine has figured out the trick to air defense, which is that there
is no single “correct” system to use against the Russian threat. There are several tools,
each of which can be used against a specific type of weapon that Russia unleashes. There are still
challenges ahead. Russia is moving toward using Shahed-type drones equipped with jet engines,
which are supposed to make them faster, and thus more difficult to intercept. But Ukraine is even
rising to that challenge. On April 14, Militarnyi reported that Ukraine’s interceptor drones are
already taking out Russia’s newer jet-powered drones. Ukraine is also working on laser-based
air defense systems, which can tear through Russia’s faster drones at almost zero cost.
These types of weapons are still in their prototype phases, but the fact that they’re
being developed at all shows us that Ukraine’s mastery of air defense hasn’t only occurred
because it’s the best in the world at using existing systems. Ukraine is developing brand-new
weapons to answer every air defense question that Russia tries to raise. With all of this in mind,
is it any wonder that Ukraine is now being courted by some pretty major players who want to get
their hands on its air defense secrets? Ukraine’s interceptor drones, combined with its four years
of experience in dealing with Russian Shahed-type drones, are the reasons why Gulf states are
signing defense deals with Ukraine. These deals, which Ukraine has signed with Qatar, Saudi Arabia,
and the United Arab Emirates, each last for a decade and have already led to Ukraine sending
over 200 anti-drone experts to the Middle East in March. But the really important thing about these
deals is what Ukraine gets in return. Weapons, fuel, and cash are all coming to Ukraine way,
as is a new level of influence in the Middle East that Ukraine has never had before. That’s what
being the best in the world gets you. As Ukraine continues to improve its layered air defense
strategy, as it makes its use of Western systems more efficient than anybody thought they could be,
it’s developing expertise that it can leverage for its military’s gain. Ukraine’s air defenses
already protect it directly. But with that leverage comes protection that arrives in the form
of fuel and cash, which are countering Russia’s strategy of wearing Ukraine down. There’s a lot
more to say about the Gulf deals, by the way. Ukraine’s air defense expertise is so extensive
that it may be the key to reopening the Strait of Hormuz if Operation Epic Fury reignites. Hard-won
experiences of blockades in the Black Sea are also making Ukraine a valuable partner for many
in the Middle East, and you can find out why by watching our video. And if you enjoyed this video,
remember to subscribe to The Military Show to see more analysis of how Putin’s invasion
is playing a part in turning Ukraine into one of the world’s most respected military powers.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
This video examines how Ukraine has developed world-class, highly efficient air defense systems to counter Russian missile and drone attacks. By necessity and through constant combat practice, Ukraine has surpassed NATO's traditional operational doctrines, particularly by maximizing the efficiency of Patriot missile systems and utilizing low-cost interceptor drones. These advancements have not only allowed Ukraine to maintain a very high interception rate against massive aerial strikes but have also turned the country into a sought-after military partner, leading to significant defense cooperation agreements with nations in the Middle East.
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