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Ukraine Just MASTERED Something So IMPENETRABLE… Russia Knows War is LOST!

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Ukraine Just MASTERED Something So IMPENETRABLE… Russia Knows War is LOST!

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0:00

For years, it has been something that Russia could  use to devastate Ukraine. Vast swarms of drones  

0:05

and missiles have been used to strike Ukraine’s  cities and shatter its infrastructure. However,  

0:10

necessity is the mother of invention, and Ukraine  has developed into the best in the world at  

0:15

countering the one thing that Russia relied on.  Russia is now like a bug, as Ukraine is swatting  

0:19

down everything that flies, combining mastery of a  key air defense system with new technologies that  

0:24

are having a huge impact on Ukraine’s interception  rate. First, we take you to the night of April 15.  

0:30

On that night, Russia launched yet another of its  long-range attacks against Ukraine. It wasn’t the  

0:35

largest aerial strike that Russia has unleashed.  By the end of the attack, Ukraine worked out that  

0:40

Russia had launched a trio of Iskander-M ballistic  missiles at its territory from the Rostov region,  

0:45

along with 324 strike drones, which included  a swarm of about 250 Shahed-type drones. Those  

0:51

drones flew from seven different locations  inside Russia and the occupied territories,  

0:56

which makes Russia’s goal clear: Overwhelm  Ukraine’s air defenses with drones so that the  

1:00

missiles could get through. It’s a strategy that  Russia has used to great effect before. However,  

1:06

on this night, Ukraine had the perfect  counter. In less than an hour, Ukraine’s air  

1:10

defenses intercepted all three of the Iskander-M  missiles that Russia launched. On top of that,  

1:15

Ukraine took out 309 of the incoming Russian  drones. It was also tracking three others that  

1:20

were still in Ukrainian airspace but appeared to  have lost their way en route to their targets.  

1:24

Assuming those three get taken down, the math  behind this defense tells an interesting story.  

1:28

For the missiles alone, Ukraine achieved a 100%  interception rate. On the drone front, only 13 of  

1:35

Russia’s unmanned aerial vehicles managed to get  through to their intended targets, United24 Media  

1:40

reports. That leaves 311 that failed, which gives  Ukraine an interception rate of 95.9%. Add the  

1:47

ballistic missiles and drones together, and that  interception rate climbs to 96% - right in line  

1:52

with the 95% rate that Ukrainian Defense Minister  Mykhailo Fedorov (mee-KHY-loh FEH-doh-rohv) wants  

1:56

his country to achieve. This is a headline in  its own right. Ukraine has set a massive target  

2:01

and has achieved it. That alone is an indicator  that Ukraine has built world-class air defenses,  

2:06

which is a topic that we’re going to be  exploring in more depth later. However,  

2:10

there’s an aspect of this story that has caught  everybody off guard. Ukraine intercepted all three  

2:14

of Russia’s ballistic missiles. That’s newsworthy  in terms of saving Ukrainian citizens from a whole  

2:19

lot of destructive Russian force. But that  isn’t the most important part of the story.  

2:24

How Ukraine is managing to carry out these types  of interceptions is the true proof that it has  

2:28

become a master of an air defense system that  wasn’t even designed on its territory. Ukraine  

2:32

would likely have destroyed Russia’s ballistic  missiles with Patriot interceptors. And it’s using  

2:37

those interceptors in a way that bucks the entire  doctrine of the U.S. and NATO. All was revealed  

2:42

by a unit commander of a Ukrainian formation  that operates Patriot air defense systems,  

2:46

who recently spoke to Air Command West, which is  part of Ukraine’s Air Force. That unit commander  

2:52

revealed that Ukraine has found a way to make  its Patriot missile stockpiles last longer,  

2:56

and it has done so by becoming the most efficient  user of the Patriot system to date. How? It all  

3:01

comes down to the typical rules of engagement  for using the Patriot to take out a target.  

3:06

The official NATO protocols call for the users  of a Patriot system to fire between two and four  

3:11

interceptor missiles at whatever is coming their  way. There’s plenty of logic behind this doctrine.  

3:16

The more interceptors you fire, the greater the  chance of at least one of those missiles taking  

3:20

out the target. The challenge emerges when you  have a limited number of interceptor missiles  

3:24

and a large number of targets that need to be shot  out of the sky. Ukraine has found a solution to  

3:29

that challenge. And it’s a solution that bucks  all conventions. “We try to use as few missiles  

3:34

as possible. Even if the rules of engagement  call for the use of two to four missiles against  

3:38

certain difficult targets, we destroy them with  one,” the unit commander claims in the video.  

3:43

What this tells us is that Ukraine’s Patriot  crews have managed to refine their targeting  

3:47

and engagement capabilities beyond anything that  the U.S. or NATO thought possible. The two-to-four  

3:52

doctrine was created, in part, because NATO knew  that crews operating the Patriot wouldn’t have  

3:57

extensive experience using the system outside of  training. A much different reality has emerged in  

4:02

Ukraine. Russia’s non-stop aerial assaults mean  that Ukraine’s Patriot crews are combat-tested to  

4:08

a degree that no other users of the American air  defense system could hope to be. The old adage  

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says that practice makes perfect. Ukraine has  proven that, as constant practice has allowed  

4:18

it to figure out how to maximize its limited  stockpiles of Patriot missiles. Think about what  

4:23

this means in terms of cost and scale. If Ukraine  followed NATO doctrine on the night of April 15,  

4:28

it would have needed to rattle off up to 12  Patriot interceptors to deal with the three  

4:32

Iskander-M ballistic missiles that Russia launched  at its territory. Costs vary depending on the type  

4:36

of interceptor that Ukraine launched. RBC-Ukraine  says that a PAC-3 missile costs between $3 million  

4:41

and $4 million. The U.S. Congress says that  the cost of a Patriot interceptor falls into  

4:46

the higher end of that spectrum, which means  that following the NATO doctrine for Patriot  

4:51

usage would have cost Ukraine up to $48 million  to halt one Russian strike. But Ukraine is going  

4:57

missile-for-missile. Rather than $48 million,  Ukraine would have spent a maximum of $12 million  

5:02

to take out the trio of Russian Iskander-M  ballistic missiles on April 15. According to  

5:07

Pravda, an Iskander-M ballistic missile costs  around $3 million. Ukraine was still on the  

5:12

losing end in terms of the cost battle. However,  its mastery of the Patriot air defense system  

5:16

means that it was only in the red by $3 million at  the end of April 15, rather than the $39 million  

5:22

gap Ukraine would have had to deal with if it  followed the NATO doctrine. This is where the  

5:26

mechanics of scale come into play, and not just  for Ukraine. The U.S., NATO, and the Middle East  

5:31

nations that use Patriot missile interceptors will  all be looking at what Ukraine has just achieved,  

5:36

and they’ll be asking questions. Chief among them  is how necessary it is to use four missiles for a  

5:41

single target. NATO says that’s what’s needed.  But Ukraine is proving with its Patriots that  

5:45

you can do with one what NATO says needs between  two and four missiles. If other nations can mirror  

5:50

Ukraine’s success, they can drastically reduce  the cost of using their Patriot interceptors,  

5:55

as well as take out more targets before their  stockpiles are depleted. The U.S. should be  

5:59

asking Ukraine how it does it. According to  the European Consortium for Political Research,  

6:04

the U.S. used over 800 Patriot missiles during the  first three days of Operation Epic Fury. If the  

6:11

U.S. had the sort of mastery over its own weapon  that Ukraine has developed, it could have used  

6:15

between 200 and 400 instead. Even at the lower end  of the NATO doctrine spectrum, which would see the  

6:20

U.S. using two interceptors per target, that’s a  saving of $1.6 billion. These massive cost savings  

6:26

are one of the reasons why Ukraine becoming the  best in the world at using the Patriot could be  

6:30

crucial for both itself and its allies. There is  another, which is focused more on Ukraine itself.  

6:35

But before we get into that, Defense Blog offers  some interesting information that it has gleaned  

6:40

from the Facebook video in which Ukraine’s use  of one interceptor per ballistic missile was  

6:44

revealed. It says that the Patriot launch unit  shown in that video has been configured so that  

6:48

it can carry two PAC-2 Patriot interceptors,  along with four PAC-3 interceptors. Though  

6:54

both are usable by a Patriot system, these  missiles work very differently. The PAC-2,  

6:58

as the name implies, is the older of the two.  It destroys its target via proximity detonation,  

7:03

which means that the PAC-2’s warhead explodes  as the missile approaches the incoming threat,  

7:08

with the resulting fragmentation leading to the  destruction of that threat. PAC-3 missiles have a  

7:13

hit-to-kill approach, which is what it says on the  tin – the interceptor collides directly with the  

7:18

incoming target before its warhead explodes. PAC-3  missiles require more accuracy, but they also  

7:23

produce more reliable results. PAC-2 interceptors  sacrifice a touch of reliability for a greater  

7:28

chance to score a hit on an incoming threat, even  if that hit doesn’t take the threat out. However,  

7:34

Ukraine is operating both. The commander didn’t  specify which type of interceptor missiles Ukraine  

7:39

is using in its one-for-one strategy, which leads  us to an interesting conclusion – it’s able to use  

7:44

both. If that’s the case, Ukraine has figured out  how to best utilize the strengths of each type of  

7:49

interceptor in ways that nobody else has, which  requires an exceptional level of target tracking  

7:54

and fire control timing. And remember, this is  all being done against ballistic missiles that  

7:58

can travel at several times the speed of sound.  The level of discipline and operational refinement  

8:03

needed to pull off something like this is insane.  At this point, there’s no arguing against the  

8:08

fact that Ukraine is the best in the world at  using the Patriot air defense system. But the  

8:12

other little wrinkle to this story, and the second  reason why this is so important for Ukraine, is  

8:16

that this is a skill born as much out of necessity  as it is the result of growing expertise. Before  

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we explain what that means, this is a quick  reminder that you’re watching The Military Show.  

8:25

If you want to see more of this kind of insight,  make sure you’re subscribed to the channel. So,  

8:30

Ukraine is cutting down on costs and increasing  its kill counts through its mastery of the Patriot  

8:35

interceptor. The real reason why this matters,  for Ukraine perhaps more than any other nation, is  

8:39

that Ukraine doesn’t have enough Patriot missiles  to follow the NATO doctrine. It has received as  

8:44

many as its allies can provide, with the U.S.,  Germany, and the Netherlands all having provided  

8:49

interceptors from their stockpiles. However, the  production of Patriot missiles is finite. Plus,  

8:54

with the U.S. having tied itself up in a war with  Iran that has seen it use huge numbers of Patriot  

8:58

missiles, stockpiles that might have gone to  Ukraine are instead being used to take out Iranian  

9:03

Shahed drones. By reducing missile expenditure  by a factor of up to four, Ukraine is conserving  

9:09

ammunition that is in very short supply. Ukraine  knows that it isn’t likely to get a reliable  

9:14

source of Patriot interceptors for a while. The  U.S., which was Ukraine’s main source, needs as  

9:19

many of its missiles as it can for its campaign in  Iran. Worse yet for Ukraine, U.S. Vice President  

9:24

JD Vance went on record in mid-April to proclaim  that ending military aid to Ukraine was “one of  

9:29

the proudest achievements” of his time in the  Trump administration. If that’s the case, Ukraine  

9:34

seemingly can’t rely on the U.S. to restart  military aid or to provide more Patriot missiles  

9:39

as and when they’re needed. Ukraine’s President,  Volodymyr Zelenskyy, pulls no punches when he  

9:44

talks about Ukraine’s Patriot missile shortages.  “The situation is in such a deficit, it could not  

9:49

be any worse,” Zelenskyy declared in the wake of  Vance’s comments. If Ukraine’s Patriot interceptor  

9:54

situation is as dire as Zelenskyy says, then  its mastery of the system is a necessity.  

9:59

Ukraine simply can’t afford to burn through more  Patriot missiles than it needs to counter Russia’s  

10:03

ballistic missile threat. Stockpile woes aside,  what Ukraine’s revolutionary use of the Patriot  

10:09

shows us is that the country’s air defense  strategy has evolved to the point where it’s  

10:13

now among the best in the world. The Center for  European Policy Analysis, or CEPA, highlights that  

10:18

in an April 13 piece where it labels Ukraine’s air  defenses as “world class,” while noting that those  

10:24

defenses are still improving. And though Ukraine’s  doctrine-bucking use of the Patriot is the example  

10:29

that we’ve focused on for most of this video,  there is something else that Ukraine has added  

10:32

to its air defense game that makes it the envy of  the rest of the world: Interceptor drones. Though  

10:37

dealing with ballistic missiles still amounts to  firing expensive missiles and expensive threats,  

10:42

the real challenge for Ukraine lies in  Russia’s use of Shahed-type attack drones,  

10:46

both for strikes and to confuse air defense  systems that should be focusing on missiles.  

10:51

As we saw on April 15, Russia launches hundreds  of Shahed drones alongside its missiles during  

10:56

its air strikes. Even Ukraine’s hyper-efficiency  with its Patriot systems can’t account for that.  

11:01

Billions of dollars would be blown up in the  skies if Ukraine started using Patriot missiles  

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to counter Shaheds, and the stockpile issues that  are critical for Ukraine right now would be a  

11:10

non-factor. Ukraine wouldn’t even have stockpiles  to speak of. Interceptor drones have changed the  

11:16

game for Ukraine’s air defense, and they would  have been a huge factor in Ukraine achieving  

11:19

the 96% interception rate we spoke about earlier  during Russia’s April 15 attack. The numbers say  

11:25

it all. On April 8, Fedorov noted that Ukraine’s  interceptor drones destroyed 33,000 of Russia’s  

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strike drones in March. That number covers  unmanned aerial vehicles of all types, not just  

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the long-range Shahed drones that Russia launches.  33,000 is also twice as many drones as Ukraine’s  

11:42

interceptors destroyed during the previous month,  and this drone destruction is likely why Ukraine’s  

11:47

overall drone interception rate rose to 89.9%  in March. February saw that rate hit 85.6%,  

11:53

which was already a substantial improvement  over the 80.2% rate recorded back in December.  

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This pattern is also paired with the fact that  Russia has been launching more drones at Ukraine,  

12:03

CEPA points out. March alone saw Russia fire  28% more drones at Ukraine, and Ukraine still  

12:09

intercepted more of them. Ukraine’s mastery of air  defense was cast into an even stronger spotlight  

12:14

by its Ministry of Defense. The 89.9% interception  rate we mentioned earlier covers both missiles and  

12:19

drones. If we only focus on Shahed-type drones,  then Russia fired 6,463 at Ukraine in March, of  

12:26

which 5,835 were intercepted. That amounts to an  interception rate of 90.25%, which is incredible,  

12:33

given the sheer volume of drones that Russia is  launching. But here’s where Ukraine’s interceptor  

12:38

drones really shine: They cost far less than  Russia’s Shahed-type drones. According to  

12:43

Euronews, a single interceptor drone costs Ukraine  between €1,000 and €4,000, or around $1,170 to  

12:50

$4,700, to make. A Russian Shahed costs between  €25,000 and €40,000, or $29,400 and $47,100,  

12:59

to build. Both are low-cost weapons. Shaheds  costing so little is the main reason why using  

13:04

multi-million-dollar missiles to counter them,  as the U.S. has been doing in Iran, leads to a  

13:08

country burning through billions of dollars in a  matter of days. But with its interceptor drones,  

13:13

Ukraine has developed a counter to the Shaheds  that costs as little as a 20th of what Russia is  

13:17

spending on building its long-range drones.  What we’re seeing from Ukraine right now is  

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that it is tackling the core challenge of modern  air defense. That challenge isn’t taking out big  

13:26

missiles with expensive interceptors, though that  is still a part of the overall problem. The far  

13:30

greater challenge is finding the balance between  cost and volume. Russia has already done that on  

13:35

the strike end. A handful of missiles combined  with hundreds of drones allows Russia to hit  

13:40

hard without spending as much as it would if it  relied on missiles alone. The irony here is that  

13:45

Ukraine has taken this approach and applied it to  defense. Ukraine is also using fewer missiles and  

13:50

more drones; only its interceptor drones are  so cheap that they eliminate any benefit that  

13:54

Russia experienced from using its Shaheds in the  first place. Shahed drones were supposed to make  

13:59

airstrikes cheaper for Russia and more expensive  for Ukraine. Now, the tables have turned,  

14:04

and it's Russia that is losing more money than  Ukraine every time it attacks from the skies.  

14:09

None of this has happened overnight. Ukraine has  become a master of air defenses because Russia’s  

14:14

attacks over the last few years have forced it  to figure out ways to counter the sheer volume.  

14:18

Interceptor drones, Patriot missiles, and much  more are now part of a layered air defense model  

14:23

that the former chairman of Ukraine’s Artificial  Intelligence Committee, Vitaliy Goncharuk,  

14:28

says was developed over 18 months that also  saw Ukraine boost its propeller-driven drone  

14:32

output significantly. Ukraine has figured out  the trick to air defense, which is that there  

14:36

is no single “correct” system to use against  the Russian threat. There are several tools,  

14:41

each of which can be used against a specific type  of weapon that Russia unleashes. There are still  

14:46

challenges ahead. Russia is moving toward using  Shahed-type drones equipped with jet engines,  

14:51

which are supposed to make them faster, and thus  more difficult to intercept. But Ukraine is even  

14:55

rising to that challenge. On April 14, Militarnyi  reported that Ukraine’s interceptor drones are  

15:00

already taking out Russia’s newer jet-powered  drones. Ukraine is also working on laser-based  

15:05

air defense systems, which can tear through  Russia’s faster drones at almost zero cost.  

15:10

These types of weapons are still in their  prototype phases, but the fact that they’re  

15:13

being developed at all shows us that Ukraine’s  mastery of air defense hasn’t only occurred  

15:18

because it’s the best in the world at using  existing systems. Ukraine is developing brand-new  

15:23

weapons to answer every air defense question that  Russia tries to raise. With all of this in mind,  

15:28

is it any wonder that Ukraine is now being courted  by some pretty major players who want to get  

15:32

their hands on its air defense secrets? Ukraine’s  interceptor drones, combined with its four years  

15:37

of experience in dealing with Russian Shahed-type  drones, are the reasons why Gulf states are  

15:41

signing defense deals with Ukraine. These deals,  which Ukraine has signed with Qatar, Saudi Arabia,  

15:46

and the United Arab Emirates, each last for a  decade and have already led to Ukraine sending  

15:51

over 200 anti-drone experts to the Middle East in  March. But the really important thing about these  

15:56

deals is what Ukraine gets in return. Weapons,  fuel, and cash are all coming to Ukraine way,  

16:01

as is a new level of influence in the Middle East  that Ukraine has never had before. That’s what  

16:05

being the best in the world gets you. As Ukraine  continues to improve its layered air defense  

16:10

strategy, as it makes its use of Western systems  more efficient than anybody thought they could be,  

16:14

it’s developing expertise that it can leverage  for its military’s gain. Ukraine’s air defenses  

16:20

already protect it directly. But with that  leverage comes protection that arrives in the form  

16:24

of fuel and cash, which are countering Russia’s  strategy of wearing Ukraine down. There’s a lot  

16:29

more to say about the Gulf deals, by the way.  Ukraine’s air defense expertise is so extensive  

16:34

that it may be the key to reopening the Strait of  Hormuz if Operation Epic Fury reignites. Hard-won  

16:39

experiences of blockades in the Black Sea are  also making Ukraine a valuable partner for many  

16:43

in the Middle East, and you can find out why by  watching our video. And if you enjoyed this video,  

16:48

remember to subscribe to The Military Show  to see more analysis of how Putin’s invasion  

16:52

is playing a part in turning Ukraine into one  of the world’s most respected military powers.

Interactive Summary

This video examines how Ukraine has developed world-class, highly efficient air defense systems to counter Russian missile and drone attacks. By necessity and through constant combat practice, Ukraine has surpassed NATO's traditional operational doctrines, particularly by maximizing the efficiency of Patriot missile systems and utilizing low-cost interceptor drones. These advancements have not only allowed Ukraine to maintain a very high interception rate against massive aerial strikes but have also turned the country into a sought-after military partner, leading to significant defense cooperation agreements with nations in the Middle East.

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