The Export Controls Are Working - Dylan Patel
44 segments
So, China today, if we sort of level set
back to 2022, the US [music] was adding
about 45% of the world's compute. China
was adding about 30% of the world's
compute, [music] and the rest being
taken up by the rest of the world. Since
2022, we've had big regulations against
China
>> [music]
>> and a dramatic increase in America. So,
today, 70% of watts are being deployed
in America. And, you know, China is is
really a very small number. It's [music]
sub 10% of watts being deployed for data
center AI compute is in China. And as we
step forward, [music]
they're still at a very small number.
So, in 2028, it might start to inflect
up, [music] I think, but it's pretty
easy to say China will have like 30
gigawatts of AI compute or less.
>> Wait, during 2028?
>> Yeah, in 2028.
>> Honestly, when I interviewed Jensen and
asked about export controls, [music] I
was still manning what is like the
opposite view that he has. But, I'm
like, yeah, maybe there's a world where
we if we just cooperated with China, it
would be better for us, [music]
especially since they control so much of
the supply chain and the other things
that will be needed for robotics and
other things. But, I didn't realize the
compute situation was as [ __ ] as
you're saying. [music] If they ship the
amount that you're saying, that's a huge
difference. By the time we have
automated coder and even getting into
like automated researcher, China is like
way far behind on the compute stock. If
that ends up being the case, that
[music] would have worked. I I think
that's actually a notable success.
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Die Analyse zeigt eine signifikante Verschiebung bei der globalen Verteilung von Rechenkapazitäten für KI-Rechenzentren. Während China 2022 noch etwa 30 % der weltweiten Kapazität stellte, ist dieser Anteil aufgrund von US-Regulierungen und einem massiven Ausbau in den USA auf unter 10 % gesunken, mit der Prognose, dass dieser Trend bis 2028 anhält.
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