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Why Isn’t China Further Behind in AI? - Dylan Patel

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Why Isn’t China Further Behind in AI? - Dylan Patel

Transcript

39 segments

0:00

Chinese companies today are not that far

0:01

behind in AI models at least perceivable

0:03

by the public relative [music] to the

0:05

amount of compute they have, right? The

0:06

leading Chinese labs have 100-200

0:08

megawatts total of compute at [music]

0:10

most, whereas Anthropic is, you know,

0:11

nearly 5 gigawatts by the end of the

0:13

year. You know, the question is sort of,

0:14

well, does it matter? And I think

0:15

[music] right now it doesn't matter that

0:18

much because, you know, when we break

0:20

down the compute [music] ratio or budget

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of a lab, historically it's been like

0:23

60% training, 40% inference, but that

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training gets broken down further. And

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then it's [music] actually like 50% of

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the compute is research, like 10% of the

0:32

compute is development, and then 40% is

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inference. And what I mean [music] by

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research and development is, you know,

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researchers are generating ideas,

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testing new architectures, testing new

0:40

data mixes, [music] but ultimately when

0:42

Anthropic trains Methos, it's sub-200

0:44

megawatts, right?

0:45

>> They didn't pre-train the whole thing.

0:46

>> The pre-train. It's sub-200 megawatts

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for, call it, 2 months, and then the RL

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is even less.

0:50

>> But total computer was probably higher,

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right?

0:51

>> But it's like sequential, right? The

0:53

most they ever used at one point in time

0:54

was maybe 200 megawatts. And then in

0:56

reality, [music] they had multiple

0:58

gigawatts, so most of their compute was

0:59

going to the research, not the

1:01

development or the model.

Interactive Summary

The video discusses the current standing of Chinese AI labs compared to industry leaders like Anthropic, specifically focusing on compute capacity and usage. It explains that while Chinese labs possess significantly less total compute power, they remain competitive because the majority of a lab's total compute budget is typically allocated to research and testing rather than the actual pre-training of flagship models.

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