Two Labs Are About to Take Half the World's New Compute - Dylan Patel
44 segments
Anthropic and OpenAI are taking as much
as 40 to 50% of compute [music] next
year. This centralization doesn't look
like it's slowing down or stopping. In
fact, it looks like it's only
accelerating. [music] You know, the
beginning of this year, Anthropic and
OpenAI started at two for OpenAI and
less than two for [music] Anthropic. End
of this year, they're both above five.
When you look at the incremental compute
added, that's about 30% of the compute
added [music] this year. And as we step
forward to next year, given what's
already been signed and penned and
inked, you've got [music] something even
more dramatic, right? For example,
SpaceX is building a ton of compute. And
they're actively [music] going to lease
quite a bit of it to Anthropic and
OpenAI most likely cuz they're the ones
who have the marginal capability to pay
the highest price. In addition, OpenAI
and Anthropic are also starting to build
their own compute. OpenAI with their own
chips, Anthropic with TPUs that they're
purchasing [music]
from Google and deploying with
Fluidstack. And so, when you ask, "Hey,
when does half of the world's
incremental new compute go to just
OpenAI and Anthropic?" I mean, it's it's
really by the end of next year, it's
already half of the incremental [music]
compute is going to Anthropic and
OpenAI.
>> This very soon, you're saying maybe
within a year and a half or two years
that most of the world's compute is
owned by two labs or at least are
serving the demand from two labs.
>> You've got them just controlling [music]
most of the usable, you know, flops in
the world on their own.
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This video discusses the accelerating centralization of computing power by major AI research labs like OpenAI and Anthropic. It highlights how these two companies are projected to consume nearly 50% of the world's incremental compute by the end of next year through leasing agreements, partnerships, and internal chip development.
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