The Path from The Soviet Union to Building Multi-Billion Dollar Companies — Max Levchin
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I was asking myself actually a question
like why is our relationship as good as
it is and it is really good and is there
anything to learn about co-ounding
companies like you're co-ounding a
family when you marry someone you get
together with someone I've had many
co-founders over the years and some were
amazing relationships and others didn't
work out and it's always tempting to
sort of blame yourself but you obviously
have to examine it through the lens of
like what fell apart as a relationship
between two co-founders and I realized
that the secret for my marriage
is I'm still trying to impress this
girl. Every day I roll out of bed
thinking like one like how did I get
this? This is definitely better than I
should have gotten. So, the attempt to
impress your mate on a daily basis is
the secret to the best marriage.
>> Max, it's nice to see you. And I wanted
to kick this off with a thank you,
believe it or not, from what you put
into my last book, Tribe of Mentors. And
it was in response, you had several
responses to this. But it was in
response to the metaphorical billboard
question. What would you put on a giant
billboard anywhere with anything on it,
what would it say and why? Any quotes
you think of often or live your life by?
And there was one that I had never come
across because I had never seen the
movie Ronin. And the line was whenever
there is any doubt, there is no doubt.
>> Whenever there is any doubt, there is no
doubt. And I have come back to this
after watching the movie so many times
it's hard for me to even give you an
accurate account or even estimate of
account. But perhaps we could give
people some context. Why was this one of
your answers to that question? It's a
great quote. I love that quote.
>> So good. The next line in the movie,
that's the first thing they teach you.
I'm only showing off because I love that
quote so much, too.
>> It's the first thing they teach you.
It's a great quote. Encapsulates so many
different flavors, right? It's like
don't doubt yourself. The real meaning
here is you know the answer. You may be
too scared, too embarrassed, too
unprepared to sort of embrace the fact
that you know the answer, but you know
the answer. So like let's not mess
around. You know the answer. So that's
layer one. Layer two is make a decision
already. Layer three is
even if it's unpleasant, you're going to
have to do it anyway. So don't delay.
There's just like so many flavors of the
same idea over and over again
encapsulated beautifully in just a few
words. I think it's a great succinct
line. The other thing I I'm a huge fan
of
studying leadership. Fan of leadership
sounded weird. So I love leadership
related lessons. And there are two
movies where leadership I think is or
I'm sure there are more than two but
like two of the movies that I fall back
on for leadership content is Ronin and
Seven Samurai. And Seven Samurai is hard
to quote because it's in Japanese and
you can either translation unless you're
native speaker which I'm not. But Ronin
is in English and so it's great to
quote. There's a lot of other great
lines but that's the best one. And one
of the layers of explanation that you
added to it, which I ended up applying,
it made it very concrete for me, which I
think you've already done, but it was
when you aren't sure, I'm quoting from
what you put in the book here, is when
you aren't sure about a key employee or
a co-founder, odds are exceedingly low.
Your mind will be changed for the
better. And the way I translated that
for myself and I kept thinking of this
and I modified it slightly for myself
like if there is any doubt there is no
doubt just to say that if you are
analytically trying to convince yourself
of something that doesn't feel right and
you have to cross-examine that quote
unquote intuition sometimes but
chances are you know the answer
particularly at least in my experience
with employees and hires Right.
[laughter]
>> It's always I should have done that a
lot sooner, at least in my very limited
experience. You have infinitely more
experience with that. So, thank you for
that. And on the Japanophile angle of
things, having lived there. I'm still
very close to my host family who I
stayed with when I was 15. I am no
longer 15, I think some people will
realize. But I was wondering, have you
ever seen the movie Paprika? This is an
old anime. It's from 2006, I believe.
>> I don't think I have.
>> If you haven't, it might be interesting.
It will be not too much of a spoiler
because there's so much around it, but
here's the basic premise. Psychiatrists
invent a device called the DC Mini that
allows therapists to enter and record
patients dreams. And then when the
prototypes are stolen by an unknown
dream terrorist, A, B, and C starts to
happen. What's crazy about this is that
there are actually researchers in Kyoto
in Japan who have been using fMRI and
waking dream subjects to try to use
machine learning to then correlate brain
activity to content. And they've made
some surprising
progress with being able to do that.
It's still very very low resolution, but
I don't know how far away we are from
being able to do something like is
depicted in Papriko, which is pretty
crazy. I used to be a a voracious
consumer of both manga and anime and
then it turns out that time is still a
zero sum game for most things and so
I've drifted off my weekly
supply of Japanese content production
but I will definitely make room for that
one. The thing with fMRI and
brain modeling,
>> at least last I looked and before I sort
of picked to do the thing that I'm doing
now with a firm, I actually looked
pretty seriously into I'm a huge sort of
a closet fan of brain computer interface
and all sort of surrounding ideas and
opportunities. So I've looked on and off
at fMRI and all the other sort of stuff
in a domain and it just seems that your
cranium is too dense. It's hard to get
signal other than like very superficial
you know connectivity from and you have
to like shave your head which you know
you've done but
>> yeah I faced that one.
>> I'm not yet prepared. Of course you have
to experiment on yourself otherwise
what's the point? But I'm actually
pretty excited about some of the newer
things happening in brain computer
interface specifically in things like
ultrasound. I think we're finally
looking at penetrating is a is a scary
term. I I don't mean that like
physically penetrating. But getting into
few inches into your brain versus just
scanning the current of the top of the
skull is is exciting.
>> Yeah, for sure. And looking at neurom
modulation things like focused
ultrasound could hit say the nucleus
encumbent for various substance abuse
issues or addiction issues and so on. So
it's pretty exciting. That's definitely
front and center of a lot of really cool
research and I feel like we're hanging
around in the same uh [laughter]
scientific also sounds wrong but
probably hanging out in the same
circles. [gasps]
>> Yeah. I want to actually stay on the
fiction thread for a minute because I
was actually hanging out with one of our
I suppose many overlapping connections,
Luke Nosk. And I asked him what I should
ask you since you guys go way way way
back. And here's the question. This is
from him. Well, first of all, I mean,
obviously he's a huge fan. Oh, man. So
many early memories. I miss working with
him. But here's the question. And
something I always wondered is that we
all had cryptonnomicon as required
reading. So I want you to explain that.
I love that book.
>> It's a great book.
>> Went to the financial crypto conference.
Max wanted to use cryptography to make a
new money system. How close were we to
really solving the same problem as the
Bitcoin algorithm or something along
those lines. So maybe you could just
provide some backdrop here for people
who have absolutely no context to put
this together. So that was one of the
weirder [sighs]
dual track like am I in a dream? Is this
a simulation
experiences of my life? So full context.
So Luke and I were classmates. I think
it was ahead of me by a year in school,
but we were at University of Illinois
together and worked on a couple of
failed startups together there. So we go
way back. We're really close friends.
And as
we all made our way to Silicon Valley, I
hung around campus because I actually
really wanted to do research in
cryptography, which back then crypto
meant cryptography, not cryptocurrency.
But I've always thought that there's
interesting opportunities in currency to
be invented powered by cryptography. So
I I was obsessed with things like, you
know, David Ch's work in anonymizing
signatures and digash was a thing back
in prehistoric times. in prehistoric
times like what year roughly?
>> I graduated UVI in 1997. Digicash, which
was the granddaddy of all
cryptocurrencies.
I hope I'm not offending anyone's prior
art, but I I believe it was probably the
very first attempt to make a real
digital currency using cryptography. I
believe it went bankrupt in the summer
of 98, the year I moved to Silicon
Valley. I actually went to the pouring
one out on the curb party held on kind
of somewhat less explicably on one of
the picnic grounds at Stanford
University. [laughter] I happened to be
there. There's actually a really good
lesson like sort of took that away with
me to PayPal where there was a bunch of
people some people you know today people
who are very active in crypto
cryptocurrencies now but also just like
interesting famous people famous today
they're all we're all very young back
then and the conversation was around
this idea like how the world is not
ready for this yet like the digash and
digital currency like people aren't
ready 98 you know this is like 10 years
before the bitcoin paper so I'm sure
they were right but the conversation was
really around how like it's obvious
obviously the right thing to do, the
right way to do it. People just don't
get it yet. And as a sort of naive,
freshly minted computer science
graduate, I was like, well, or the user
interface sucks. It's really hard to
have this very, very slow RSA
computation happening on your crappy
laptop if you're trying to pay for a cup
of coffee. Like, it's it's just too
slow. And people are like, "Ah, heathen,
you don't understand what are you
talking about." Like, no time too long
to wait for a digital signature.
Non-repudiation. I'm like, okay, great.
But seriously, you know, like I just
want a cup of coffee. So, it was kind of
an early moment like I feel like some of
these things are not like the others.
Anyway, I had literally within days of
that event, I met Peter Teal at
Stanford. He was giving a lecture. I was
hanging around Stanford campus. Luke was
actually the connective tissue. He knew
Peter and he went to school with me. And
so, he was kind of like, "Oh yeah, like
you guys should know each other. This
was great that you ran into one
another." So, the origins of PayPal
story were literally being made that
summer. And I was still like, sure, I'm
going to start a company in Silicon
Valley doing something. I don't know
what, but I was still going to like
scientific conferences. So, there was
this one conference called Financial
Cryptography. It was held in Anguila,
which is a kind of a small island off
the sort of a British West Indies. And
there's some all sorts of interesting
characters. It probably deserves its own
podcast one day. But it it's a
interesting, hilarious, bizarre story.
I'm 99% confident whoever Satoshi is was
probably going to the same conference at
the same time as we were. But Luke and I
were there and then another year Peter
and I went there and after PayPal was
already a thing I presented something
basically saying, "Hey, so we built this
thing. It has a great user interface and
I was there when DigiCash failed." And
like I think it failed because of user
interface and this was now a couple of
years into PayPal and we were definitely
doing well and Digicash was definitely
dead and people were in the audience
going like boo you totally don't get it.
They're like okay clearly maybe there's
a reason why we're we're succeeding.
Anyway, as we were doing all this stuff,
Neil Stevenson publishes the first 100
pages of Cryptonicon. And so as we're
coding and like I'm I'm literally coding
24/7. Steam comes out of my ears every
day cuz like I don't eat, I don't sleep.
Like the six of us are just in the
office together and three of us are
basically just typing code as quickly as
we can because we have this thing we
have to build.
And the only thing we take breaks for is
we're trying to read Cryptonomicon. And
like the more we read, the more like we
think he's writing about us. The first
few chapters of Cryptonomicon is like
this development of digital currency
using cryptography. And he's like
literally talking about I think he
actually references digicashe and he's
referencing like user interface sucks
and somebody needs to build something
more user friendly. So like am I in a
dream? Is this real? remember sitting
next to Russ, one of our earliest
engineers who I also went to college
with, al another Luke Nosk friend, and
I'm like, if we didn't know any better,
this is all just like a big brain and a
bad experiment. We just don't know whose
brain it is cuz it's being described to
us in a book that's being published
online. And then we ran out of pages and
like it wasn't published for a little
while longer. Like, how will we know
what to build next? We don't have the
book anymore. [laughter] That's like the
extended cryptonomican story.
>> Wow. And for folks who have never heard
of this book, it's an incredible read. I
mean, it's in retrospect, I suppose,
quaint in some ways, but so preient in
so many other ways. Just phenomenal. I
remember ripping through that book, and
like all Neil Stevenson books, it's like
5,000 pages long.
>> This one is only 4,000.
>> Yeah. [laughter]
>> It's a great book.
>> It's so good. It is so good. My college
life was shaped by Snow Crash with
probably the thing that really put him
on the map. And I read that there was
like a dog eared version of it hanging
around one of the offices that I sort of
hung out in college and I was like this
is the most amazing thing ever. Like it
this this this book sort of shaped my at
least software engineering life and then
cryogan was the next one. I was like all
I need to do is just read more Neil
Stevenson and he'll show me the way.
There were some really long books after
which sort of were quite challenging to
to get through. But then we got to red
which was another gift. So I'm reviewing
my preferences here.
>> He's like the digital Nostradamus in the
world of fiction.
>> Totally.
>> Snow Crash for people who also are not
familiar is where the term I believe
it's where the term metaverse was first
coined is in that book.
>> He coined Metverse.
>> Exactly.
>> And those Boston Dynamics, I think
that's the company with the
cute/terrifying possibly soon to be
weaponized robotic dogs. Go check out
Snow Crash. there in that book.
[laughter]
>> So, Thorrash basically presented an
alternative to Neurommancer.
Neurommancer was this dark dystopian.
Also, by the way, first book I read when
I came to the US.
>> Neurommancer.
>> Yeah. Yeah. So, two things. So, actually
this is extremely uh Are we in a
simulation? So, I come to the US July
16th, 1991,
6 weeks, I think before Soviet Union
fails. But I leave Soviet Union and I
come into this dreamland of America. And
then six weeks later, my passport is a
passport that doesn't have a country
anymore. And so I become a man with no
state and etc., etc. Makes for an
interesting travel existence. But I'm
like an ultra ultra nerd. And I was like
the king of the nerds, you know, in in
my prior life. And this is a summer, so
I don't know
how and where I'm going to find my
people. But like six weeks go by, so a
union fails, and I start a public high
school in Chicago. And I'm sort of like
casting around for my my people. And I
run into these guys who are still really
good friends of mine and they're like,
"Oh, you're one of us. We have a word
for this. You're a nerd. It's great. You
like science fiction? Great. You love
science fiction. Have you read
Neurommancer? Have you seen Akira?" And
they're like, "No. Hasn't made it to
Soviet Union yet." I was fluent in
English. This was not a difficult
conversation to have. But they're like,
"Okay, here's a VHS of Akira. Here's a
copy of Neurommancer. Go home. Don't
come back until you've been completely
filled with these things." And I was
like, okay, like one, these these are
going to be my friends for life, which
turned out to be true. It's been 30 odd
years, and we're still talking to each
other every day. And it's the beginnings
of a completely different science
fiction consumption experience. That
said, for the next few years, I was
like, Neurommancer and everything that
came after Neurommancer is the dark sort
of plug your brain in future. And Snow
Crash offers this hilarious, completely
different, consumerist,
satirical version of the plug your brain
in versus this dark corporations rule
the world ninjas in skin suits and kill
you while you're plugged into a deck
trying to hack your way into uh some
corporations. Anyway, you're like
walking me down the memory lane to some
fun recesses.
>> Well, there are a few pieces of
commentary on that. Number one, you got
to watch Paprika.
>> I'm on it.
>> It is very adorable in its attempt
manually to do what we could do with CGI
and so on now, but it is all the more
impressive for what it is able to
accomplish with handdrawn cells. I mean,
it's just bananas. So, it's worth
checking out. Neurommancer also, and I
believe, and I'm not alone in this, that
sci-fi is a great place to go looking
for the future, but it's also a great
place to go looking for philosophy. So,
I wanted to share a couple things from
William Gibson. And these are the kind
of quotes that will stick with you.
Like, when the past is always with you,
it may as well be the present. And if it
is the present, it will be the future as
well. Noodle on that for a minute.
Right? And I'm going to get this
paraphrase wrong, but I'm going to get
it, as they say in Silicon Valley, sort
of directionally correct, which is the
future is already here. It's just not
evenly distributed. Something along
those lines. In any case, I'm getting um
off track. I want to This is You
probably weren't anticipating, nor was
I, that this was going to be like a roll
call of fiction, but I want to come back
to something that you had in Tribe of
Mentors, and it's related to books. I
asked you
what book or books you've given the most
as a gift and why. And one that I've
still not read. I'm very embarrassed to
say this is the Master and Margarita.
>> You're missing out.
>> Yeah. So, this is now on my to-do list.
I'm going to let you fill in the blanks
here, but you you said I usually buy
M&M, which even though literally five
lines above it, it says the Master
Margarita. I was like M&M's in batches
of five or [laughter]
but you give it as gifts to new friends.
>> I do.
>> You always have copies on your desk at
work in case someone wants to borrow
one. Why? What makes this book so
special? Who's the author? What's the
background?
>> It's a great book. It is well translated
by a couple of different translator
teams. So, you can almost not go wrong
buying
one of the last three translations.
There's about six that I remember exist
in English anyway. I would not bother
with the first three.
>> I think one is Pevear. I'm not sure I'm
pronouncing
>> Pevear and Balonsky is the kind of
canonical like great translation into
English. Book is obviously in Russian
originally. There's now a new one, but
Peavar Balconsky is a fantastic very
very very good translation. Anyway, it
was written by Mikail Bulgakov, who is
arguably the greatest Russian language
writer of the 20th century in my biased
opinion. There there's a lot of great
Russian language writers, so it's a bit
of a fish in a barrel type situation,
like who's a great Russian author, and
there's some fantastic science fiction
Russian authors, incidentally. But he
wrote many books, and all of them are
really good. The premise for Astro
Margarita is so it's set in kind of an
early 1920s Moscow. Soviet
revolution happened. The Russian civil
war ended. The place is now socialist
and sort of slipping into the socialist
bureaucracy building mode. And yet it's
kind of, you know, it's a socialist
paradise in the making. And so the
devil, like the prince of darkness,
visits socialist Moscow in a summer of
1925. let's say with a codery of
characters from what you would expect
devil to hang out with and reres
absolute havoc on the socialist
paradise. So first of all it's a book
within a book which is like one of my
favorite sort of plot devices. The main
character the aonomous master is a
writer who wrote a book about the last
days of Christ. It's a book about
crucifixion and it's beautifully so it a
lot of it is in the book. it's
interspersed with the chapters of the
original and obviously Abulaka wrote
both but he is very much referencing
himself so he was in Moscow during the
revolution and and on and very quickly
ran a file of Stalin and
was also because he was such a prolific
and brilliant author was Stalin's
favorite author was persecuted
ultimately asked for permission to leave
the country because he couldn't be
himself he couldn't write Stalin
apparently permitted it but then he died
before this could So this it's a little
autobiographical story of the of the
writer himself. It's a story of devil
mocking making a mockery of socialist
paradise. It's a story of Christ and his
last days on earth told by an amazing
writer both the author of the book and
the book's author also known as the
master. It would take many hours and at
some point I'd be like you know well you
should go read the book cuz it's so
amazing. But it is one of the best
portrayals, certainly the earliest
brilliant portrayal of homosveticus.
What happens to the human mind when
exposed to rampant socialism? And it is
funny as hell because having grown up
there, spent 16 years there, the
insanity of living in a socialist
paradise and yet you don't have enough
to eat. It's tragic obviously, but it's
also very funny and the book does it
amazing justice and it's like super
duper supernatural sort of science
fictiony in what's possible. There's
there are flights, there are witches,
there is a devil Sabbath, there's all
kinds of crazy [ __ ] that happens there.
It's amazing.
>> Something for everyone.
>> It's an amazing book
>> and it's shorter than most Neil
Stevenson books is at least is my
impression.
>> It's like a quarter length or a fifth of
a a short Neil Stevenson product. So it
it's definitely very accessible.
It's also incidentally, not to
overshare, it is the reason I am married
to the woman I am.
>> Okay, I'm not going to let that pass.
Yeah, please expand.
>> We met completely randomly through like
a a sheer accident and both were
predisposed to be like, who is this
weird person? Why am I talking to
whoever this girl is, whoever this guy
is? And then I thought she was quoting
Master Margarita and I was like before I
like bow my way out of this
conversation. I'm going to find out.
It's my favorite book. It's always been
my favorite book. Like how can I, you
know, not so because I know the book as
well as I do because we're speaking in
Russian. I quoted the next line and
she's like, "Oh my god, Master
Margarita. That's my favorite book."
Like no, it's my favorite book. And it's
been 27
years and two children and and a very
happy life together.
>> Incredible. That's incredible. It's a
book that many things in my life are are
owed to. By the way, to give credit
where it's due, she's the one who said,
"Oh my god, that is the best line I've
ever heard in a movie referencing
whenever there's doubt, there's no
doubt." She So, she's actually She
deserves full credit. [laughter]
>> Full circle. Oh, boy. Yeah. The brain in
the vet question just keeps popping up.
So, let's actually talk about your wife
for a second and your relationship for a
second because I was texting with
another mutual connection, Sami Inken,
who is also a absolute monster endurance
fan and we were texting back and forth
about that. I was [clears throat]
chatting with him and I know you're an
investor in Verta Health, which people
should check out also. Let me just pull
it up here because he shot me over a
couple of different options. for
questions, right? I asked him the same
thing and
I'll give you a sampling and then I'll
indicate the one that most caught my
attention, right? So, I asked him I
asked him about what it's like to cycle
with you. And he said, "Well, if you're
going to be riding with him, just know
he pretty much goes all out always for
the first 90 minutes, no matter who he's
riding with, but enjoy." And I was like,
"I'm not going to be riding with him.
Don't worry." And then he had a number
of questions. grew up a super intense
engineer now a well-rounded CEO leader.
What did it take to go from one to the
other cycling? Why did he go like fully
allin a few years back? Which is
actually kind of an interesting question
cuz I know that's been part of your life
really really consistently on a near
daily basis for much longer than a few
years. But third, this is the one that
caught my attention. He's essentially
working with his wife on sci-fi, you
know, his family office VC. What's his
advice after years of experience
regarding working with a spouse? So
that's the one that I wanted to hit
next.
>> Totally. I mean, you got to marry right
otherwise it's hard to work. Uh, no.
Well, what are your thoughts on marrying
right? If you have thoughts on that. I
do actually. I've spent a lot of time
thinking I mean I spent a lot of time
thinking about all kinds of random stuff
and this is no exception. The line marry
up is a line people use all the time and
I think that's cute and I agree with it.
I just think it deserves unpacking. I
was asking myself actually a question
like why is our relationship as good as
it is and it it is really good and is
there anything to learn about co-ounding
companies like you're co-ounding a
family when you when you marry someone
you know you get together with someone
and are there parallels and I I was
contemplating all this stuff and I sort
of realized that I mean some I've had
many co-ounders over the years and some
were amazing relationships and others
didn't work out and it's always tempting
to sort of blame yourself but you
obviously have to examine it through the
lens of like what felt apart as a
relationship between two co-founders.
And I realized that the secret for my
marriage is I'm still trying to impress
this girl. Every day I roll out of bed
thinking like one like how did I get
this? This is definitely better than I
should have gotten. So clearly
I got to work on this. Like I can't let
her find out that she married down. And
so the attempt to impress your mate on a
daily basis is the secret to the best
marriage. And I think that the good ones
are where both sides are kind of
secretly thinking, I definitely lucked
out. Like this is so much better than I
should have gotten. And so if the
feeling is mutual, you're going to go
very far together just constantly trying
to grow. And
you know, come up with new tricks, new
ideas, new know, you don't let yourself
be stale because you're watching the
person next to you grow and become more
well-rounded, more intelligent, more
successful, etc., etc. So that's sort of
the secret to our relationship and
everything I've accomplished in my life
since we've met has been modulated
by her. We keep on referring to this
her. So her name is Nelly. I suspect
many of our mutual connections refer to
her as the sort of actual reason behind
anything that I've done successfully in
my life. So and it is true. She's been
extraordinary at both calling my BS out
when when there is some and pushing me
at the you know things like whenever
there's doubt there's no doubt situation
saying like hey trust your gut make a
decision this isn't the right person
this isn't the right idea etc and so on
one fun fact after PayPal so we met in
the very early days of PayPal so that
same summer of 98 is when the seeds were
in the ground for PayPal early 99 when
we started My wife and I met in mid99,
so exactly a year after I moved to
Silicon Valley. And so she she witnessed
the entire PayPal saga from the front
row seat. After PayPal, I was like,
"Anything but financial services. I'm
going to go build some other stuff." But
like I I can't allow my sophomore act to
be in the shadow of my freshman act. And
she sort of said, you know, do whatever
you want. Like obviously you have a
right to to come up with anything, but
I'm just gonna tell you, man. That's
clearly what you're meant for. And so
like, you know, you go on. So, [snorts]
seven years later, after I've been
meandering through the desert, she's
like, you know, I think I said it
before, but I just want you to know,
like, you were really good. Like, that's
still true. Maybe you should go do what
you're good at. And [laughter]
a firm is very much a product of that
conversation. I was like, I think she's
right. I think I'm a onetrick pony. And
the trick is a good trick, though. So,
here it is. Anyway, [laughter] but
trying to impress your mate, trying to
impress your co-founder every day
because you can see the other person
progressing in front of you and get
better and smarter and more intimidating
by way of just being so much sharper, so
much more interesting than they were
when you met is a great motivator. It
makes you keeps you on your toes, makes
you work harder at improving yourself.
>> And on top of that, what have you
learned about
working with a spouse or collaborating
with a spouse? Right? Because sometimes
spouses can be often very well matched
and have a dynamic like the dynamic you
describe, but they have some
compartmentalization or separation,
right? And I've I've met so many friends
and even have some neighbors where
they've just quote unquote attempted to
retire, sort of like a failed
retirement. And then [laughter]
one neighbor was describing this to me.
His wife is also very active, has got
tons of big projects she's working on,
and he doesn't know what to do with
himself. So he'd like sit down at the
breakfast table while she's on her
laptop and he'd be like, "So, what are
you up to today?" And she was like took
off her glasses very slowly and she
said, "You know, I'm not used to
checking in with you every morning.
[laughter]
You need to get a job." So working
together is a very different thing when
you have that. And maybe I'm overstating
the extent to which you guys sort of
collaborate in that way, but any
thoughts or recommendations for people
who are entering that type of
relationship with the spouse?
>> It can definitely get hairy, for lack of
a better term, if you're not thoughtful
about it. So, you have to think through,
you have to talk through kind of what
makes sense, what doesn't.
We're well matched because I am quite
technical, have lots of interest in sort
of the technical depths of matters that
we work on together where she works on I
work on etc. And she has an extremely
strong finance background and
understands business models and kind of
the sort of philosopher of business
these days. And so our conversations are
very rarely about checking each other's
work, which is where I think you could
really end up with like why are you
nitpicking
>> checking my homework,
>> right? micromanaging.
>> Yeah. Don't micromanage what I'm good
at. And also, she's an incredible empath
and and I'm not like I frequently be
like, "So, I'm I'm dealing with this in
my day job. Why is this person unhappy?
Can you explain to me?" And and she's
incredibly good at that. And so, I think
because we are such kind of non-over
overlapping areas of strength,
>> we end up being very complimentary. If
anything, we tend to be like, "Wait a
second, we're on your stuff. Why are you
bouncing to mine? We need to finish that
thread." And both of us have pretty
active professional lives. And so we're
we are constantly discussing them, but
we don't, I think, ever run into or step
on each other's toes. She doesn't ask me
what's your token budget anymore than I
ask her, how did you make this hiring
decision? Like I I I know she's very
good at or how did you decide that this
was a bad investment opportunity?
>> I'm pretty sure she looked at it with
all the tools she's gotten, they're
better than mine. But you have to be
prepared to communicate and it does not
hurt to be direct with one another. And
so you have to be able to take on
directness without sort of like
hurt feelings and a great oneliner.
Another gift from my wife. She didn't
come up with it, but she read it
somewhere and she's like, "Here's a new
motto for our family unit. Don't go to
bed angry. Stay up and fight."
[laughter]
You guys put that into practice. Uh we
don't fight too often. Yeah,
>> but we definitely don't let
>> things fester
>> curfew prevent us from hashing out
whatever it is our differences are at
the moment. But yeah, we try very hard
not to let things gesterure and that
works really well. If you're going to
overlap
familiarly and professionally,
you better
deal with conflict or disagreement
quickly because you're acrewing areas of
negative overlap faster than most people
do. Like, I hate the way you chew, but I
love you all the other ways. Like, we
got to talk about that, but it's not an
important thing. It's like, I hate the
way you chew, and by the way, you've
belittled me by checking on my token
budget. M is like you're compounding
frustrations and marriages fail because
people just don't say out loud like
here's a thing that I'm not sure I'm
prepared to put up with.
>> Yeah. And so just got to stay up and
fight. Got to get it out of there. Stay
up and fight. [laughter]
That'll be the title of this podcast.
Max left. Stay up and fight. You
mentioned earlier time is a zero sum
game. I want to talk about
obsession and [sighs and gasps]
analysis and tracking for a second
because ultimately the question is
how do you choose what to track right
and this is pulling from a men's journal
piece that came out in 2018 so some of
it is dated but today if you can name it
Levchin has quantified it food he spent
weeks using his iPhone to photograph all
of his meals and snacks and later gauge
their nutritional values sidebar from
Tim I did that too I still can't believe
that say the Dexcom app doesn't give you
some estimate of caloric content or
macros. It's just like you ate chicken.
I'm like that's not helpful. Anyway,
coming back to sleep. As an overtaxed
entrepreneur, as the parent of two
children under the age of five, Levchin
determined his minimum threshold by
shaving 5 minutes off of each successive
night. Interpersonal relations and time
management. Lean says he once spent a
month grading every business and
personal meeting on a scale of 1 to 10
on several metrics like usefulness,
intellectual stimulation, and social
stimulation. It goes on and on. [snorts]
>> It sounds like a weirdo, but I like
that's all true, man.
[laughter]
>> So, [snorts] I've done lots of this,
too. I'm just curious how you have over
time determined what to track and maybe
what you're paying attention to outside
of a firm business metrics and things
internal to a firm and we'll get to a
firm, but I'm just wondering for
yourself outside of that company
professional context, how do you choose
what to track? I've definitely gotten
much better at deciding what matters,
what doesn't. So, when this article was
written, I'm sure no metric looked dumb.
No metric looked superfluous. I was
like, great. Counting the number of
times I trimmed my fingernails. H, what
was there signal in that?
As you age, you replace raw compute and
willingness to engage in raw compute
with pattern recognition and olude paths
that you don't need to travel down
because you know there's nothing there.
Like there's absolutely no value in
tracking your fingernail clippings or
rate they're off. So I've become more
focused on tracking sleep because
there's more and more science showing
that that's really important. Even that
I sort of used to obsess over a bunch of
metrics and I think at this point the
sort of reasonably cutting edge and you
know better than I do I think these days
resting heart rate and heart rate
variability are the two really good
anchors like if if you you know keep one
down keep the other one up you know that
predicts your recovery predicts your
intellectual capacity for the day really
well. So I track that pretty
obsessively. I try to stay in bed some
number right number of hours. I'm a lot
less obsessed with I don't need to sleep
more than X, so better be, you know,
bulleted out of bed by X plus one
second. I'm also not precious about, you
know what, I don't feel like I need any
more sleep. I'm just going to go and
tool around and do more stuff. So, I
I've relaxed a bunch on things that I
found to be less impactful to my own
life, but I have the benefit of spending
a bunch of years obsessing over
everything and deciding, well, it
doesn't seem to matter that much what I
eat, for example. So, for a long time I
was obsessed with the exact sort of a
caloric and macro targets and then at
some point I had to travel a lot more
than I used to. And obviously that goes
out the window because you can't bring
your favorite yogurt with you everywhere
you go. And so you end up like, well,
I'm just going to have to have some
fermented foods from the assortment
available in this geography. And it
turns out that basically your gut health
is like going to be okay as long as
you're having enough fermented foods
versus like the fermented food you've
selected for yourself. So you relax some
constraints and move on to spending less
time thinking about them. I track sleep.
I'm still an obsessive cyclist, so I
track every metric you can imagine. I
become more obsessive as a cyclist.
Actually bothers me a little bit, but
because I'm unwilling to believe that
I'm ever going to age properly. I keep
on looking for marginal gains by
obsessing over the exact crank length
adjustments I can put myself through
just to return some of you marginal
watts that I lose with age. I've gone
from believing that all you need is
cycling to widening my physical training
routine too. So it's maybe slightly more
brain allocated to like what's the right
day to lift heavy weights versus the
right day to not do that. I'm curious
when, and I've never asked you this
before, but when cycling entered the
picture, because in doing some research
for this conversation,
well, I can I can just pull this is
from, I believe, an alumni magazine.
Behind the curtain of Soviet Ukraine,
and then your full name, which I cannot
pronounce, is born to a family of
physicists. As a child, you struggle to
overcome life-threatening respiratory
diseases. Your parents are told you
won't live past childhood and with your
mother's urging a determined young Max
begins playing the clarinet to build
lung capacity.
>> True story.
>> So I mean that doesn't seem to have the
makings of a serious cyclist. When did
you embrace cycling and what does it
give you? Also there's an interesting
origin story that actually kind of
intertwines Ukraine and clarinet and
everything. So, I did have some fairly
gnarly respiratory stuff when I was a
kid. And I think my parents probably
were scared into kind of throwing
everything in the kitchen sink into it.
As a nice Jewish boy from Ukraine, I
probably should have played the violin,
but clarinet is a a reasonable close
second. They're like, "Oh, but lung
capacity, great, let's do that." So,
that that's how I got into clarinet.
There was like literally something that
will, you know, feed the stereotype, but
also help with the lung capacity
development. And so I think my V2 max at
the time must have been like in the
single digits or something cuz like I
remember just like trying to open up my
lungs and breathe in like it didn't
work. And then like everything else I do
like ah well I can just obsess in
measuring it. And V2 max is definitely
not a thing Soviet Ukraine really
measured but they did have like the
basic approximation like blow into a
tube and see how far you can push the
ball like all the the physics
equivalents of lung capacity
measurements. So, I was already looking
at quantify itself from a lung capacity
perspective as like a 7-year-old kid or
something. All of this while living in
an apartment complex that overlooked
Kiev's only outdoor velroone. And so my
platonic ideal of a manly man who was
like a sports phenom was these dudes who
would like get on the boards of a Kia
Veladrome and just put their watts down
and like go for an hour or two just
ripping through this thing. I was like
wow like one day when I'm not a scrawny
little kid with a clarinet I'm going to
be like that. So, I used to sneak into
the Velro when it was closed and try to
ride my bike there except the cranks
would touch the woodboards. Like, one of
the worst accidents of my childhood was
I had a giant wood splinter in my butt
>> because I crashed at the top of the drum
trying to do loops and slid down. Of
course, these weren't well finished
boards and it was outdoors, so like the
elements rained on it.
>> Probably not PG-13 after this, but
anyway. So, I didn't grow up with a ton
of sport in my life. Like soccer is
prevalent obviously in Eastern Europe,
but like cycling was right there on
display every day. Like if I wanted to
see someone who looked like just full of
life and vigor, I would see a cyclist.
And so I always rode a bike as a kid and
always rode a bike in college. And sort
of as I got into sort of busier and
busier where this notion of
how do you stay sane became an important
part of the consideration like if you're
going to work for 3 days straight
without sleep like you got to offset it
somehow.
>> You can't just like sleep it off. You
also need to do something to your body
versus your brain.
>> I sort of naturally looked at cycling
and then back to Nelly. When I left
PayPal after we got acquired by eBay, I
definitely hit like a very low point
where there's nothing going on in my
life that was worth staying up all night
for. And she pointed out that I have
this amazing bike hanging on the wall
that you know had since I think before
we met. She like why don't you like get
back on the bike and you know see see if
you can find joy in that. And and she
knew my stories of rolling around the
Kia drum. And so I got on a bike and it
was one of these moments where I went
for a ride with a bunch of people and
they were all like very serious road
jewelry as the saying goes.
>> I've never heard that.
>> If you're buying more of a bike than you
deserve to ride like that's nice road
jewelry got there. I was on like a
beater bike relatively speaking. I think
I brought it from college actually and I
sort of dropped everybody on the first
hill and I was like oh yeah I know how
to ride a bike. I have big lungs. That
clarinet really paid off. And so that
was like I should really invest some
time into getting better at this thing.
And that that's how I got into. But I am
exactly what they call a hammerhead. So
you know it's a if I see a road I can't
not go fast or at least try to go fast.
>> What does it give you in terms of
dividends just on an ongoing basis?
>> A couple of different things. So it's
definitely it's great. I mean it's a low
impact sport. So you can ride a bike for
6 hours and no part of your body will be
like in absolute shreds the day after if
you at least somewhat know what you're
doing. So it's it's a great just if you
have the time and if you're interested
in it, it's not a self-destructive
sport, which some sports are more and
others are less. This is definitely one
of the less self-destructive on the
actual physiology. Part of why I like to
go hard on the bike is it actually
allows me at least to clear my head.
It's one of the few times when I'm not
constantly playing with some work
rellated concept or thinking through
some future ideas or you know whatever.
It's a moment where sort of everything
gets tuned out and it's just me and the
the pain in the legs and sort of you're
telling yourself go harder or manage
your energy but there's not enough time
or cycles left and like also what if we
went to this market now? So it's a
moment to go into like a pure moment of
flushing whatever's left in the head and
it does keep you healthy. It's a great
way to stay alive and be healthy. And
then more and more these days, it is a
lifestyle sport of CEOs and leaders and
people who sort of read the same kind of
books. And it's another form of a
community where if you don't have the
time to sort of join
clubs and you know, I'm I'm not a big
foodie. I'm not a big drinker. I don't
have a ton of time for these protracted
social events. I try not to go to too
many conferences and yet I'm human. I
enjoy human company and so riding with a
pack of people who are interested in
similar things is is is another form of
staying engaged.
>> So I imagine that's a being near people,
not a talking with people type of
situation. If you're going as hard as I
suspect you're going, right?
>> Part of the trick is if you can still
talk and they cannot.
>> Yeah. Then you're doing it right.
[laughter]
Cycling takes place over hours and so
you can spend some time talking. There's
also the
an important part of cycling culture is
the coffee shop ride where you sort of
you hammer to a coffee shop and then you
sort of
>> everybody falls in their chairs and gets
their pinkies out and sips espresso. And
[laughter] I love coffee almost as much
as I like bikes.
>> If we have time, we'll come back to
coffee because I did dig into that in
the research. two other quotes that you
gave for your potential billboard
answers. You said if it were in Marin
County and I'm going to mispronounce
this so you can correct me, but it's
either Jen's or Yen's Voit. I'm not
sure, but you can correct me in a
second. So, two quotes from him.
Legendary cyclist. Number one, when my
legs hurt, I say, "Shut up legs. Do what
I tell you to do." That's the first. The
second is, "If it hurts me, it must hurt
the other ones twice as much." That's a
great one. It's so applicable in so many
contexts. Am I saying that name
correctly? Probably not.
>> I think it's Yens.
>> Yens.
>> I think he's East German. Yens V.
>> V. Okay, got it.
>> One of my proudest moments in the bike
is I rode with Yens a few years ago now,
but he used to hang around Northern
California. He has a lot of fans
actually. He's transcended the very
specific sport of cycling into having a
fan base worldwide because he's such a
character. The shutup legs. I own
multiple pieces of clothing with shutup
legs that I did not personally produce.
He's famous for that line, but he's very
funny. He's now primarily a commentator
in bike races, but he is a great
embodiment of this culture of endurance.
You know, pain with a smile, if you
will. Pain with a smile. Before we move
on, cuz I do want to ask you a bunch
about a firm and broadly how things
you've done with a firm reflect
your thinking and ability to see things
that others don't see perhaps. But
before we get there, I wanted to come
back to Eminem, [laughter]
this book we were discussing earlier.
And for people who are like, "Oh yeah, I
meant to write that down." on the master
in Margarita. You wrote here, just to
reiterate some of what you already said,
it's a fairly short novel, remarkable in
its exceptional depth, exploring
everything from fundamentals of
Christian philosophy to the fantastical
and hilarious satire, soulcrupting 20th
century Soviet socialism. My god, that's
really well put. Yeah, I don't think I'm
alone in watching some of what's
happening in the US and elsewhere with
respect to
this embrace of socialism or things that
go by the name socialism perhaps you
could apply other labels and while you
know capitalism is not a panacea for all
things and there are plenty of warts and
risks and you know humans respond to
incentives
as someone who came here at 15 or 16. I
would just love to hear you speak for a
few minutes on what you're seeing and
what your thoughts are.
>> I'm pretty worried, not to sort of go
all dark immediately, but I think
people without the benefit of [snorts]
questionable benefit of growing up in
the collectivist paradise to quote the
current mayor of New York don't
understand just how corrupting it is.
The ideas of socialism are amazing.
This, you know, me for my fellow men and
share and share a like and do the right
thing because it's the right thing to
do, not because there's a financial
incentive to do it. All those things
sound amazing and so it's seductive. the
idea of a workers's paradise without the
greedy
lenders, capitalists, bankers, sort of
all all the sort of things we were fed
as children or I was fed as a child in
Soviet Union. At first, Blushers are
like, "Yeah, it makes sense. People who
work hard should have more. And people
who are
great even though they're not capable of
producing valuable things in society
because they're good people should have
everything that I have even though I am
working harder than they are. And those
things sound pretty good, but they
inevitably require a bunch of structural
change that just does not work thanks to
human nature and many obvious things
>> like it. For example,
one of the greatest kind of mental
images I have from growing up in Soviet
Union is if you went to a
governmentowned store, and every store
was of course owned by the government,
you would very quickly notice that the
people whose job was to sell you things
from behind the counter were always very
fat
>> while everyone you knew in your life was
always very skinny. And you sort of like
this doesn't make any sense. like how do
these people who happen to work in food
stores are always really well fed? It's
like, well, because they're stealing,
like they get access to the food. And it
expands that notion of this idea of
everybody just pulls all their work
product into one big pool and then
someone's in charge of fairly
distributing it to everyone who needs it
from each according to their abilities
to each according to their need. Is kind
of the socialist/communist
motto. And it works great except people
who are doing the actual redistribution
get to keep a lot for themselves. And
doesn't matter how
honest they begin that journey, by the
time they get to real power, they become
profoundly corrupt and steal and keep
and redistribute primarily to
themselves. And so that alone is just
like an indictment of socialism that you
cannot get around. It gets worse because
markets, free markets, capitalism, you
know, whatever term you want to use,
inherently forces competition. If you
believe you have a thing that you can
sell at a lower price than the other
guy, you get the market's attention. You
get the business that's available to you
because the thing is worth buying by
someone, you're going to work on
creating a margin for yourself by
lowering the cost of production, finding
efficiencies, finding some ways of
making the thing cheaper for you. and
we're cheaper for the buyer so you can
compete on price. So all those things
cannot do not exist in socialism because
it's all centrally planned. We're going
to make this many widgets and then we're
going to have someone redistribute them
to all the right people full stop. And
what happens is there's never the
pressure to improve and so you always
make stuff at the governmentmandated
cost and the governmentmandated
price is what's being used to sell it.
And so you have natural stagnation. You
have a system that rewards graft, gives
power to people who are most likely to
become
graphdriven
and prevents anyone else talented or
otherwise from trying to innovate and
improve the efficiency of the system
itself. And so it just does not work.
And the thing that worries me in the US
and and the world, this isn't unique to
to us here is the headlines that make
you feel like, "Wow, I would love to
live in the world where everyone is fed
and everyone gets more or less the
baseline of good living is very
compelling. Like it it is easy to agree
with. The recipe for that remains to be
the best recipe we know, the best recipe
we've discovered as humanity is
capitalism. a force for constant
creative destruction where you build the
next thing better than the other guy.
And yes, his business may be put out
because your business thrives, but the
beneficiary is the buyer or the the user
of the product, the buyer of the widget
because you're constantly working to
make the whole thing more efficient. If
you eliminate the ability to or you
eliminate the need to create
efficiencies, you just stagnate. And the
death of Soviet Union was surprised to
exactly zero people because we knew as
people who lived there more than most
that nothing ever changed for the
better. Like everything was the same
price, the government mandated price.
And we were still using phones that
looked like they were made in 1950s. And
when I moved to the US like, "Oh, you
have buttons on your phones? That's
amazing. Like we still do
>> like the the clickity rotary."
>> Yeah. Yeah. And so anyway, I can't say
enough how the seductive story of
socialism really appeals and I can
understand why. But [snorts] you know,
if I if I didn't have my day job, I'd
spend a lot of time screaming from every
street corner, don't don't fall for the
trap. It's a surefire way of getting to
no progress at all.
>> So a firm, you know, on some levels is a
I don't want to say response, but it's a
solution that replaces potentially
predatory practices, right? And we're
going to get to that, but I'm wondering
how you would explain the current
apparent wellspring of attraction to,
just to keep it simple, socialism in the
United States. Are there structural or
systemic problems that have contributed
to that? Is it mostly sort of demagogues
using whatever talking points they think
they can
leverage to attract votes, etc. What is
the cocktail? What are the ingredients
in the cocktail that are contributing to
this current phenomenon in your mind?
>> I'm confident I don't know every strand
of this particular disease. So, it's
it's a complicated issue and
>> I think
it is definitely the case that the
brochure looks great. The storytelling
of do you know someone who's poor? Do
you know someone who deserves better? Do
you know someone who's been laid off? It
is the case that capitalism can be
profoundly unfair at least to an
individual as as a system as a way of
improving the world. It works amazingly
well. We've not created anything better.
But you get thrown off the bus if you
build something that gets outmoded or
out competed by another participant in
the market. And it can hurt. And for the
entrepreneur, it looks like failure,
which we are wired to accept, but it
still hurts. For a worker, it looks like
being laid off, which could be
catastrophic for a family. For people
who sort of misinvested their money or
something went wrong, it doesn't taste
good. And so, the idea of social safety
net, the idea of welfare
is natural. You hate seeing your fellow
men and women starve or not do well. So
I understand the definition of the
problem and the notion of income
inequality and like all the things that
we see in Silicon Valley firsthand is
very real. It's not like how are you
complaining like there's a lot of people
who are not doing well and every new
disruptive change from you know the
industrial revolution to the AI
revolution there's always someone on the
receiving end of the efficiency because
their work is no longer required or
their products or their ideas are no
longer relevant. And so socialism is a
compelling story of how to protect those
people, how to prevent them from
suddenly being on the outskirts of
society or worse. And I think there's
definitely a lot to do to make sure we
don't leave our fellow humans behind.
Certainly my love of capitalism and free
market does not obiate my humanity. I
care about people just because I am also
human and I see it as part of my job to
ask the question, can we do better? Can
we provide the social safety net for
everyone? We're creating more and more
efficiency. We're creating more and more
value. There have to be ways of helping
people who are thrown off the bus to
make sure they don't end up in the
gutter. And I happen to have some
solutions that I love and solutions that
I think are worthless. the idea of let's
concentrate it all in the hands of the
government, give a handful of people the
right to redistribute it all and we'll
do better doesn't work and I lived to
tell the tale. I do think that things
like philanthropy is profoundly
important and the more disruption we're
going through as a society the more
important philanthropy becomes. And I
think in that sense I'm not an
especially outwardly religious but I
think religion provides a really useful
set of frameworks around how to think
about it. You know, every organized
religion has a version of what it means
to be philanthropic. And the older I
get, the more I start respecting the
thought that's sort of been aggregated
over the thousands of years that most
religions existed. So I think that's
super interesting and important and
worth
participating in.
On the other side of it is I think
capitalism in particular has created
opportunities for products to develop
where the sort of optimizing up and to
the right of the most profit at lowest
cost ends up building products that are
actually devolved from not just their
economic platonic ideal but societal
ideal. And I don't think we have to
compromise by saying well you know what
I don't actually care that this is
harmful to someone because it's the most
profitable marketefficient thing to do.
And my theory for a long time has been
that you can build products certainly
financial services that are optimal not
just from the lens of most profitable
but also most society beneficial. And
that's not uniformly distributed. There
are plenty of products that look like
predatory lending and all the other
things or just sort of make money
because the underlying customer doesn't
understand what's going on, doesn't have
the capacity to deal with the complexity
of the math involved. A firm is the
answer to that question. In some ways,
what we are doing here is trying to say,
look, you can optimize a product beyond
just making the most money. In fact,
it's okay to make a little bit less
money if you are able to create
something that's society more
successful, more important because in
the long term, I think you will have
retention that consumers will not go to
a cheaper product or a product that is
less profitable for shareholders because
it's so societally important. And so I
am to at least some extent embracing the
ideas of pro-social product and
engineering. I just choose to do it
strictly through the lens of capitalism.
>> I'd like to go to early early a firm,
right? And this parallel to PayPal,
which looking back at say early
fundraising for PayPal, it wasn't
exactly like every door at Sand Hill
Road was opened with a red carpet,
right? I mean, it was incredibly
hardgoing. People were like, "Yeah, no
way. Possible. Not going to work." I
mean, I've had conversations with Reed
Hoffen about this just like, "Yeah, no."
Like, at every turn, no chance. And I
mean ultimately with Peter pulling from
the hedge fund and stuff I mean it's a
hilarious story and incredible a firm
you know early on similarly right it was
not obvious a lot of folks would be of
the opinion credit cards just fine late
fees too profitable
and what I'm wondering and this applies
elsewhere to your investing and
involvement with companies like Yelp and
so on.
What are you seeing? What gives you
confidence? And of course there's a bit
of a in the phrasing of the question a
survivorship bias. I mean but so putting
that aside for the moment what gave you
we could use affirm as the example but
like what gave you the confidence to
keep driving? What did you see that
other people didn't see or what were
assumptions you made or hypotheses
that you felt just were worth continuing
to hammer on and test because you had
some degree of confidence. And what does
a firm do? Maybe you should explain that
first.
>> Well, there's this acronym BNPL, buy
now, pay later. We kind of invented the
genre about 15 years ago. And the basic
idea is at the point of sale, most of us
pull out a debit card or a credit card.
And those who pull out a debit card
generally speaking, think themselves
financially responsible and think, you
know, if I can't afford it, I'm not
going to pay for it. So, like, if I
don't don't have enough in my bank
account, just not going to buy right
now. I'm going to save up or maybe buy
something cheaper. If you pull out a
credit card, the minority of us who are
for all intents and purposes are
independently wealthy just say, "I'm
going to put on my credit card because
it's easy, and then I'm going to pay it
off at the end of the month, and I'll
get some free float on that, but I'm not
going to pay interest or pay over time."
There's a huge percentage of Americans
that pull out their credit card and say,
"I'm going to add it to the giant pile
of revolving debt that I already have
and I'm going to pay interest on it and
I don't really know how to calculate
that and I have no idea when I'm going
to be out of debt, but I need that thing
and I'm not disciplined enough to pay
for it with cash or I just don't have
the cash and I need the thing." And
sometimes the thing is like, well, I
need a new bicycle which we can maybe
postpone and sometimes the thing is
like, I need a pram to put my baby in
and yeah, I'm just going to have to buy
it one way or the other. And so the idea
of a firm was and is and it's worked
amazingly 15 years in that what if there
was a third way where what if you could
have the same transparency and
responsibility and clarity of a
financial decision-m with a payover time
product that you do have with a debit
card. So, what if we added the idea of I
want to pay for this over time, but I
don't want it to revolve and I
definitely don't want to be confused as
to when I'll be out of debt. Essentially
turning every transaction into a simple
plan. Pay for my baby pram for over 6
months, let's say $100 at a time,
doesn't break the bank. Exactly 6 months
out, I'm done. That's it. Not revolving.
I'm not paying any more interest or or
anything like that. And as we sort of
described the idea sort of thought well
like if you're going to do it right how
about you build it so that there is no
revolving possible there's a fixed
schedule only that every transaction is
pre-ric if you're paying interest you
know exactly how many dollars of
interest you'll ever pay even if you
take longer that can't change that
shouldn't change and if you're late
there shouldn't be any late fees like
you should just be motivated to pay us
on time because if you take too long and
you're late all the time maybe we won't
lend you next time. So, it's sort of
almost like a too simple, too black and
white a way to lend money as an
alternative to credit cards, which is a
very long way of answering the question.
But, it is available now at threearters
of all e-commerce checkouts in the US
and Canada and rapidly expanding into
UK. And we've announced we're going to
go to a bunch of European countries and
there plenty of competitors to do the
same thing. But we were kind of the
first I think there were some obviously
logical and spiritual predecessors to
this idea but we sort of purified it
down to no fees, no revolving, simple
schedule, everything is pre-priced,
everything is super transparent and this
year we'll do almost $50 billion of
these transactions. So it's worked out.
>> Seems to be working.
>> It seems to be working. We publicly
trade it quite profitable. Have been
profitable for a bunch of time. the last
10 quarters we grew 30 plus percent
year-over-year or faster. So, it's like
it's both very big, growing really well,
still never charged a penny of late
fees, never charged a penny of revolving
interest. So, we're still true to the
idealistic nature. And so, as I was
describing the product, I talked to a
bunch of banking people who laughed at
me like, "Okay, dude, you don't get it.
You've obviously never lent money for a
living. Late fees is where the profit
is. Half the profit comes from late
fees. So, like, you just cut your
profitability opportunity by half. So,
putting that aside, if you don't
revolve, what are you going to do when
people take too long to pay you back?
You want them to take forever. You want
them to make minimum payments so the the
principle keeps being big and then
interest will compound into principle.
Be amazing. Like, yeah, all that sounds
crappy. Like, none of this sounds
transparent. None of this makes any
sense. And people in Silicon Valley who
generally speaking don't need these
services don't get just how significant
the cost is on your regular consumer
that doesn't have a seven-digit salary,
etc. And so as I was sort of trying to
raise money for this idea, I would talk
to people, you know, VCs and they're
like, I don't know why why can't they
use their platinum AMX? Like they don't
have a platinum. [laughter] Like, yeah,
like why why don't they get a platinum?
I'm exaggerating, but only slightly.
>> Right. Right. Right.
>> Anyways, the difficulty raising money
for this financial services company,
unlike PayPal, was I couldn't convince
anybody this was a a thing that normal
people would use.
>> How did you land on this, though? Like
how did you even get to the point where
you're like this is the deck I'm going
out with and this is what I'm pitching.
>> So the earliest version of this thing is
actually pretty funny. So
a bridged since it it's a colorful story
and actually Luke is involved like weird
Luke makes another appearance.
>> I like colorful stories. We're not in a
too much of a rush. Yeah. Take your
time.
>> Right after PayPal went public. Luke and
I I mean Luke is a wild and crazy guy.
You've met him. [laughter]
I think he talked me I'm going to go
with he talks me into. But I'm I'm
already dating Nelly and I'm trying to
impress Nelly. I'm still trying to
impress Nelly every day. But I decide
the way to impress Nelly is to get a
really cool convertible. And so Luke and
I like find this convertible. Mercedes
just launched their first hardtop
convertible. So we fly to LA with a view
to buy these two identical like we
debate. We can't have the same color. So
we need to like take we anyway.
[laughter]
So we get to LA. We go to the dealership
like, "We want to buy this cool hardtop
convertible from Mercedes, like a
mechanical folding hardtop." So, it's
like a thing that like transformer car
becomes a hardtop or a convertible if
you press a button. Super cool. So, we
got there and they're like, "Okay, Mr.
Nosk, here's your auto loan. Go. Here
are your keys. Mr. Leftchin, your credit
sucks, so we're not going to sell you a
car today." I'm like, "Wait a second. We
like literally just took PayPal public.
I'm okay. I've paid off my student loans
and everything." like, "Yeah, but your
credit score is really, really bad. So,
if you want to buy a car today, you're
going to have to wire the total amount
of money." Which is like, "My future
wife then girlfriend is like," oo, okay,
you didn't tell me that part of your
biography when [snorts] we just started
getting to know each other. What did you
do? Like, I started this company in
college with Luke Nos like who's in the
room. He knew and I didn't that if you
don't pay your credit card bills on
time, it'll come and, you know, show up
on your permanent record. So anyway, I
had to in fact wire money and like as
this dealership was wrapping up of the
day, they're like, "Oh yeah, we finally
got your wire. Okay, here are your
keys." So we drove from LA to San
Francisco on five, basically racing each
other at some ungodly speeds and got
pulled over at 2:00 in the morning and
the cops were very upset with us, but
actually let us go because they were
similarly fascinated by these cool new
cars. So, we didn't actually get into a
lot of trouble, but got into a minor
amount of trouble for going way too fast
at 2 o'clock in the morning. But the
story stuck with me because I mean, I
was fine financially, better than fine.
I was my mid20s and just, you know,
never needed to work a day in my life.
And yet, the car dealer who knew who I
was, he looked us up. He was like, "Oh,
yeah, I know you guys. You're PayPal
kids. Cool. Yeah, you can buy a car.
Sorry, your credit sucks."
And like, why does my credit report or
my credit score not reflect the fact
that I'm basically independently wealthy
now?
>> And that really stuck with me. And so I
had this a version of this conversation
including the And then Luke Nosk had a
sweater wrapped around his head because
it was really cold on five middle of
[laughter] the night and cops were
really worried about him anyway. And so
the story comes up or came up over and
over and over again. And I was like, I
should do something about this. Like
there's got to be a credit score to be
built around like came to the US as a
teenager with no record of any kind and
$600 for a family of five and now
independently wealthy Silicon Valley
entrepreneur. Like it was like a five or
sevenyear window between those two
events. So it's it's not weird, but it's
super weird. Seven years. Like hello, I
got a computer science degree. I was
imminently employable. I started a bunch
of companies. Not all of them failed.
and why it did not catch up to me at
all. In fact, it seems to have had no
bearing on my ability to borrow a fairly
modest amount of money relative to, you
know, everything else. And I that's been
like sloshing around my head for years.
And I finally sat down with another Luc
friend from U of I like what if we built
a better credit score and so like yeah,
it wouldn't be too hard. So like all of
us are CS majors. We all have some
number theory background, therefore
machine learning, therefore AI. And so
we built a score and it was like just
use some publicly available data a
little bit sort of some other secret
sauce. We built a score and like oh well
now we should make people lend money
using our score because it's cool. And
so I talked to some bankers which how I
began the sort of like oh you're doing
it wrong kid conversations and like yeah
no one's going to lend money using a
score that no one else is lending money
against. What if it's a bad score? What
if it doesn't work? And so if you tell
an entrepreneur over and over again this
thing will never work unless someone
does X. The natural response is, well, I
will do X and see if it works. And so
like, all right, I guess we're going to
lend money. And so like, I'm just going
to go and get into a lending business.
At which point I was like, oh, I got to
understand how this stuff works. I've
never actually looked at lending very
carefully. And that began the journey of
like, okay, so how do credit cards
really work? How did I manage to mess up
my credit at the ripe age of 18 by
missing three payments? How did that
happen? And so
a year later, I was like, "Oh my god,
this whole thing is so broken and no one
even knows it." Revolving on a $1,000
draw and finding yourself with a $3,000
debt a couple years later and you can't
explain it or getting a 0% loan but not
realizing that if you're a dollar short
or a minute late, it will compound
retroactively from the time it was
written to you. So there all these
things that the industry built over the
years that are just profoundly anti-c
customer. It's one of the only
industries in the world actually like a
great way of thinking about it. I think
I heard someone else explain this to me
this way, but it's the industry where
you and your service provider face each
other and you're like, "Hey, I want to
borrow some money." Great. I'm going to
bet on you failing. I'm going to
[snorts] give you a loan, but I want to
believe that you're you're not going to
fail completely, but you're going to be
really late. Ideally, you take forever
to pay the loan back because I make more
money that way. Optimally, we sneak in a
few things you don't notice. And it's
all in a fine print, but I hope you
don't read it. It is a very, very
strange vestigial
like capitalism supposed to get to
efficiency. Like, this got us into a bad
part of the decision tree. Like, what if
I took a bunch of steps back into the
branching point where you could have
done the more consumer-friendly thing
and just did that over and over and over
again? What product would I end up with?
Like, oh, ended up with a firm. And
that's how we got here.
>> And what was your confidence in
market adoption? Right. So going out,
you're pitching a firm for fundraising.
And I mean, there's so many questions I
could ask, right? You're at at a point
where you could probably self-fund for a
while, but what were some of your
assumptions, correct or otherwise, that
underpinned turning it into a business?
So you have identified perverse
incentives and predatory fine print and
so on. So there's a problem, right? But
then there are the bankers who are
saying, "Hey, look, this will never
work." But you're like, "Well, if if I
have to do X and get into the lending
business, I'll get into the lending
business." So maybe that answers the
fundraising question actually. But how
did you have confidence that there was a
there from a business perspective?
>> I would pitch this idea in its various
forms. So, first of all, I did have to
fund for a while on my own, which I
didn't mind doing because I was getting
completely obsessed with the idea. So,
you know, as such things go, that was a
small price to pay, relatively speaking.
But I would keep on telling the story to
somebody who was like a CEO or former
CEO of a bank or somebody who managed a
credit card portfolio, and they'd be
like, "Okay, you're doing it wrong. All
the money's in the late fees, the
money's in delinquencies, just eh, come
on." I had two ideas that both turn out
to be amazingly right. By the way, every
business there's like a moment of luck
where people like, "Yeah, I don't really
want to admit to it." A firm had two.
And there were ideas that I would I'll
claim some ownership over, but I had no
idea if I was right. And the first one,
I read this study that said that
millennials hate banks. And like I
didn't really explain why. It was just
like millennials hate banks. Like they
hate a lot of things. Like millennials
and every generation has a list of
things they wants to complain about.
Like ah these complaining millennials.
I'm not a millennial. I'm a relatively,
I guess, young Gen Xer, but millennials
were definitely like, ah, they're such
whiny people. But they were willing to
participate in some study where they
ranked all the things they hate. And the
number one thing they hated, like 70% of
millennials, according to that study,
hated banks. And so, every time I would
ask a banker, why can't this exist? Why
can't there be a lending product that
doesn't take advantage of people's
unwillingness to read fine print and do
exponential math, they're like, because
banking is like the stickiest thing in
the world. You bank where you live. And
yeah, you you kind of like your bank.
It's where your parents banked. Like you
go to Marble Hall and the the vault and
you you like it. It's it's likable. I'm
reading a study here that says that they
hate you. Like all the people that are
going to be shopping and buying stuff 10
years from now, 5 years from now, they
hate you. 78% of them think banks are
terrible. They should go kill
themselves. And none [snorts] of these
people are like, "Yeah, I don't know.
Like, I don't believe that study." Like,
okay. I mean, they surveyed like 10,000
people. That's a pretty stat
study. So if I'm right and I do a thing
that's even slightly better than the
existing thing, I have a readym made
audience of people that are going to be
like cool, I hate the other one anyway.
And at some point like I need an
explanation beyond just they hate it.
And so what I realized and I think this
is the part that was lucky cuz I didn't
know any better in the beginning, but
I've since sort of confirmed this to be
true.
>> Millennials were early teens during the
great financial crisis. M.
>> And so if you are getting booted out of
your house in '08 and you're like an
impressionable youth and you're asking
your parents like, "What's going on? Why
do we have to live in a motel now?"
Parents are like, "Because the bank they
just took the money, they took my house
away." I mean, the embarrassment and the
horror of telling your kids, "We're
going to move to a smaller house or to a
to a rental or to like we're going to
live on the streets, god forbid." Like
that's a horrible impression to have in
your most impressionable years. And so I
think there's a lot of people who are
like actually quite genuine in the I am
willing to try anything but the thing
that my parents got the the sharpen the
stick for. And so that was kind of luck
number one. And I I really believed that
from the very beginning and it turned
out to be true. But like if we build
something that's good. Normally you have
to market it. You have to convince
people to trust you and all. Like I
think they don't need any of that. They
just need the belief that there's a
better thing out there that exists and
they'll give it a try because they are
predisposed to not liking the other
part. And that turned out to be
completely true. The other part, so if
you are unwilling to profit from all the
sort of wacky externalities of financial
services, you better be good at
underwriting. So if you're lending money
to someone, you are paving over
underwriting mistakes or lack of
underwriting or poor credit score.
>> Can you define underwriting here?
>> When somebody shows up and says, "I'd
like to borrow $100." And you want to
respond to them in real time. You have
some giant machine learning model or a
small machine learning model. Decide yes
or no. And what that practically means
is it has to take whatever available
data that person is willing to share be
it public or private data run it through
some form of classifier or these days
all kinds of interesting architectural
sort of ideas exist in underwriting and
say yes or no but yes or no is actually
not enough. What do you really want is a
price of risk. So it's some for
simplicity expected value or expected
loss. If I give you money today what are
the odds? what's the expected value of
you bringing it back to me with the
appropriate amount of interest if that's
what the price of the transaction is and
so underwriting discipline of doing that
at scale in our case in completely in
real time
>> right
>> that's the score we built the
underwriting score the the credit score
was that
>> and the theory that I had was credit
scoring is hard and you would have to
have the absolute best people working on
it and yet most of the time when you
encounter people working on underwriting
or credit scoring they're not as
impressive as people I'd met in my
wondering Silicon Valley up until that
point and like why is that? It's an
interesting problem. It's quite
mathematical. There's some very smart
mathematically inclined people I know
>> and the best I could get to was it's
embarrassing to talk about that you're
working on loan and credit underwriting
stuff at cocktail parties. Like when
somebody asked you what do you do?
You're a math genius. You went to school
for applied math or computer science.
What do you do? One answer is well I
went to Wall Street and I build
real-time trading models. Like that's
kind of cool. Yeah, maybe it's like not
society important, but you're doing
something interesting and there's all
the other answers. I work for the NSA
and I break codes. Like that's cool.
That's what I wanted to do when I was in
college. If you're like, I make lots of
loans and I make sure that they're
underwritten well. And by the way, I
make most of my profits by charging
people late fees and sneaking in nasty
terms. So, like there's [snorts] got to
be a latent pocket of talent of people
who would absolutely work on
underwriting because it's a really hard
and really interesting problem, but they
won't join the industry until someone
shows up and says, "I'm going to strip
it of all the gunk. I'm going to make it
completely transparent. I'm going to be
super proconsumer. I'm going to take a
lot of pride in the brand that we have,"
which stands for transparency and
honesty and all the good things you can
do if you would just take a broom to the
whole thing. And so as I sort of
formulated the product, like I'm going
to get my unfair share of really
brilliant mathematicians because they're
not going to go to Wall Street because
it's kind of a, you know, soul hollowing
thing to do to squeeze pennies out of
the market. They'd rather come to work
for me and build underwriting models
with me trying to help people in normal
America borrow money and not feel
screwed or not get screwed. And they're
totally exactly right. Like we have
people who've been here for 10, 11, 12
years doing that job who are like still
I'm so proud of what I do. I'm a
mathematician and I'm putting my big
brain to work on making honest financial
products. So those two things were like
I mean they're they're good ideas but
they're also a lot of luck. Those
quarteron quarter growth rates that you
were mentioning are kind of nuts. I
mean, seems really remarkable. And I'm
wondering looking through your scrying
ball into the future, what do you think
e-commerce looks like? This could be as
it relates to a firm. It could be more
broadly speaking in 2 to 3 years. Who
knows, right? Let's just pick that as an
arbitrary timeline. And you know, does a
gentic commerce if that's actually going
to be something that takes hold quickly
if you think really affect a firm or do
people state preferences in advance? So,
not really. It's just maybe the way that
people purchase things change. But
honestly, for you structurally, things
don't really change. I mean, how do you
think about the future of e-commerce?
>> First of all, the reason the growth
rates are compounding at a almost $50
billion mark, 30 plus% year-over-year,
quarter after quarter after quarter is
pretty awesome. like it is a
staggeringly good growth rate. It is
made better
by way of noticing that our credit
related losses are super consistent.
Like it's easy to grow. I mean the the
top line, you know, I've lent more money
this quarter than I did last quarter.
Great. [laughter] But will it all come
back is a really important question. And
the way you measure the success of these
underwriting models is you ask the
question, okay, so you made a bunch of
loans last quarter, last year. Average
halfife of our loan is five months. So 5
months back, you get a pretty good
picture of like how how good are you
relative to today's macroeconomic
reality. And if you look at our loss
numbers or delinquency numbers, whatever
metric you want to choose, they're
really really consistent. So we are in
fact very good at underwriting.
And yet even at 50ish billion, we are
about a footnote. So the overall credit
card debt in the US last I looked was
like 1.3 trillion. So, we're like
scratching at the total size of just the
credit card debt and like not all credit
card transactions become debt and
there's plenty of debit card
transactions and so the overall size of
commerce is enormous relative to where
we are and so our growth is not a
surprise in a sense that what may have
been a surprise at some point was people
actually like this product. There are
reasons to believe or reasons to say
that this product is harder to use. So,
credit cards and debit cards for that
matter is the single best financial
interface ever created. Like, if you
think of the level of complexity that
takes place when you take out your card
and tap a checkout counter and just walk
off with your cup of coffee, there's a
lot of stuff that happens underneath.
Like, there's an acquiring bank, there's
an issuing bank, they're talking to
through a network, there's all kinds of
complexity just at a technical level,
and then there's credit and blah blah.
There's like layers and layers and
layers of many decades worth of
innovation that make an incredible
single transaction happen in like a tap
and and off you go. And so when you
introduce buy now pay later, which is
this idea every transaction is separate,
you're conscious of every transaction.
You understand how long it's going to
take to pay this transaction off. You're
actually creating friction. You're
giving people more steps. So, one
counter-argument to why this thing makes
any sense at all is like why would you
want to trade the beauty of tap and go
with this like open your app and do some
stuff and the answer is simple. The
industry devolved and you don't really
trust what's going to happen to you
after you tap. So, you hesitate and
you're like h am I going to really be
able to afford it or is my card going to
work? Am I going to get declined or am I
going to go into debt that I probably
shouldn't go into? A firm offers the
antidote of you go into the app, you
look at your purchasing power, you know
exactly what we are comfortable lending
to you, you get explicit approval, next
transaction is guaranteed to work, and
by way of saying we're not going to
charge you late fees or change any of
the pricing. We're actually telling you,
you should feel very good about this
transaction. We are going to make less
money if you're a minute late. We'll
make no money if you don't pay us. And
we feel good about lending you this
money.
what we sell or what we offer to the
consumer and of this is certainty and
sense of control by way of creating some
incremental friction. Fast forward a
couple years, I don't have enough of a
clear crystal ball to know exactly what
agent commerce looks like, but I know a
lot of it is happening already and I
think a lot more will happen. The
discretization of transactions and this
incremental friction will be reduced.
>> You don't actually have to do all the
manual labor we are putting you through
right now because your agents will do it
for you. And so today we're offering a
thing in exchange for some friction. In
tomorrow's world, we're offering the
thing that obviously works. $50 billion
can't be wrong. But the friction will go
away or largely go away, which I think
is just going to accelerate this whole
approach to financial transactions. And
the way people think about money will
change towards I know exactly what the
total financial state I'm in. I have
agents that are looking out for me. They
won't get me into debt that I shouldn't
be in. They will get me out of debt the
second I should be out. I will have a
PhD in consumer finance embedded in my
phone looking out for every penny I got.
There will be no slop. And by God, no
one's going to fool me again with fine
print driven business model. So like the
world in which you have AI looking out
for all of your financial concerns is a
beautiful world because we are already
there by way of not having any
dependency on. You're too dumb to know
what's happening to you. So just pay up.
>> That's how a lot of the industry works
today. And so I'm very excited about the
world where you don't have to change
your business model because suddenly no
one's getting fooled because that's, you
know, was never a part of our business
model. [clears throat]
>> So I'm going to ask you, it's might be
naive, probably annoying, but it's going
to be a how long until X happens type of
question. So I apologize in advance for
that, but sure. I look at say China and
WeChat, right? It's like the interface
to everything in terms of purchasing,
you name it. It's incredible what
they've been able to do and there are a
lot of reasons for that. And then I look
at say chat GPT I look at claude and as
you mentioned with that tap to pay like
a lot has to happen under the surface
right so when people say oh well chat
GPD can just put ads into the LLM
responses I'm like you may be
underestimating the relationship
building that Google has done over
decades and decades and decades. There's
a lot that goes into it, but I am
curious to know how far away you think
the reality is wherein someone can pull
up a claude or chat GPT and ask
questions and make purchases directly
from a single interface. I don't know if
that's the form it'll take. I suspect at
least there'll be attempts made to
create something like that and then
everything will happen in the background
including presumably some type of a
firmlike option right if you select to
do that. How far off do you think that
is? It's very close. I think it's very
dangerous to consider commerce as this
uniform
fabric that just kind of want a thing
buy a thing. One of the dangers, by the
way, of building on mass market products
in Silicon Valley, if you're not
inventing the future, in which case
you're green field, you know, blank
sheet of paper, if you're trying to
improve something that exists and has
existed for a while,
>> it's essential you travel to where
normal people live and see what they do
because we are not normal in Silicon
Valley in a global Silicon Valley. This
is not limited to San Francisco and the
Bay Area.
We think you just want a thing and buy a
thing. And if that thing is $10, great.
And if it's $10,000, well, you know, we
get paid a lot. So, okay, just buy the
$10,000 thing. And you care about speed
and efficiency and less distraction. And
normal people actually hang back and
like, whoa, it's $10,000. First of all,
that's an incredible amount of money.
And by the way, for someone who is not
within these hot, you know, beds of
growth and opportunity, maybe $1,000 is
an incredible amount of money. Maybe
$500 is an incredible amount of money.
Depends on where you are. And the sort
of, ooh, I got to think about this. I
want to make sure I'm not exposing
myself to a bad financial decision. I
also want to make sure I'm getting a
good deal. How am I going to pay for
this? How long is it going to be on my
personal balance sheet before I'm done
paying for it? Like those are all
questions people are very conscious of.
And so for a lot of people in every part
of the US, Agent Commerce is here when
you tell Instacart bring me a sandwich
or bring bring back your groceries and
you know Door Dash bring me a sandwich
or vice versa.
>> And
that's like the threshold of is this
enough money for me to sort of hang back
and ask these questions? For most people
on who it is too much, they're probably
not using these services just yet. For
whom it's sort of like yeah, I want a
sandwich. I want it now. and like I'm
going to outsource the rest of this to
an agent be it a human or a robot don't
care like you have my credit card number
bring me a sandwich and I think that's
here today and we will see more of that
become a thing and many things like
real-time delivery or near realtime
delivery if you go to other markets you
have I think in India somebody launched
a 6 minutes or less delivery service
which boggles my mind but their storage
of mass market goods to buy has got to
be just like an exercise extraordinary
logistical prediction. Anyway, so I
think that stuff is here. It's coming
and more will happen.
>> The I want to know what I'm getting
into. I want to have agency in selecting
a thing. My taste matters to me is a
thing that probably will always involve
humans. I need a pair of pants is not
actually a thing 95%. If you're a
Silicon Valley engineer and you're too
busy coding and you just, you know, you
have a big hole on your butt, you got to
need some pants. Agent, bring me a pair
of pants. Sure, for most people like I
want them to make sure they fit and I
want them to be my favorite color and I
also want it to match the rest of my
ensemble hair and and so on and so and
it goes up from there like I need a
bicycle but I have brand preferences and
my components are important to me etc
etc and so AI will not replace the need
for decision making and thoughtfulness
in consumption. It will obiate some
pieces like who has the best price on
the bicycle I want with the component
tree that I prefer is a thing that you
will gladly outsource like you need to
make sure it's real. You need to make
sure that the data you you know LMS are
fetching for you is current. But that's
what we're working on today. But at some
point very soon you'll say, "Hey Chadbot
of the moment or of my browser, of my
desktop, I would like to buy a beautiful
looking Italian make made bike with
Shimano components. I want a good deal.
I'm probably going to pay for it over
time because it's expensive and I
definitely want to pay no late fees and
ideally I don't want to pay any
interest.
>> I'm bringing my business to someone who
should be so lucky because multiple
people will sell me a beautiful
Italianmade bike." And go do some
comparison shopping for me. bring me
some images of beautiful bikes and I
want to lust after all of them and then
pick the one that gets my business.
>> That's a great task for AI.
>> The building blocks for that will
include something like a firm where the
AI will say, "All right, so all these
people offer some ways of paying. Some
of them offer a firm which has no late
fees and by the way has negotiated a
special deal with a manufacturer or the
seller where they will pay your interest
for you. So they're actually covering
the time value of money. So the plan is
interest free which a lot of our
transactions are interest free." exactly
this way. They're funded by the retailer
or or the manufacturer. And we're
grasping at that future right now. We're
certainly building a lot of the pieces.
So, you know, I I tend to be slightly
ahead of schedule as far as the future I
want to live in. I'm trying to pull it
in here, but this is quarters, not not
years.
>> Incredible. Man,
>> for the foreseeable future, there's so
much to build. The thing that irks me
the most in today's media is the SAS
apocalypse, whatever. But the job
apocalypse people are proclaiming is so
goofy. There's so much opportunity to
build so many exciting things for
everyone, not just Silicon Valley
startup. Like everyone from the oldest
companies to the youngest ones are like,
"Oh my god, there all these pieces of
software that I had to buy from someone
who did a bad job or that I could never
buy anywhere and I wouldn't know how to
start with." Like, well, now you have
all these amazing tools that just birthe
it for you straight from your head.
Yeah. Speaking of like things you can
put on your brain, very soon we're going
to have ultrasound
mind reading that spits code on the
other side of it. That's what I'm
waiting for.
>> Seems a lot closer than I would have
predicted if you asked me just a few
years ago. It's wild.
>> The world changed a bunch of times over
the last 12 months, but I think like the
Cloud Code moment last December was like
a big like whoa, it really is here. The
ability to produce something from a
glimmer in your mind to a thing that
actually works reasonably well and has
only improved since was like a big
breaking point. The one before was
obviously CH GPT and and so on.
>> A couple of rapid fire questions for
you.
>> Yeah, coffee. We're going to short
change this one. I apologize. Maybe we
do another podcast solely dedicated to
coffee. But for people who want to
improve their coffee experience,
cheap option, intermediate option,
Bugatti option. Any thoughts on
improving coffee experience?
>> I'm not paid by any of these brands, so
I just I just want to make it very
clear. I I have some very strong
opinions. You strong opinions. Come on,
Max.
>> Yeah, [laughter] exactly.
>> All right. So, first of all, this is
primarily relevant to espresso. So, I
love all coffee in all forms.
I happen to prefer espresso as a
beverage of choice, but I don't judge.
You can have your lattes, your
americanos, you know, whatever. But from
the point of view of espresso and
espresso based drinks, the single most
important thing is the grinder. And so,
you can get a fantastic grinder like a
niche or these $600, $700 grinders that
will elevate your game to an incredible
level. So, if you have a grinder that
you didn't pay a couple hundred for, got
to go do that. If you want to get to
like, you know, a demonstrabably better
grinder than some of the sort of the the
$600 range, go get something that looks
like a Kaya Orbit. That's like a $1,600
to $2,000 grinder. It's a great grinder.
You can swap out burrs. So, switching
out burrs is really important. But even
if you're never going to replace your
burrs, you still want something that's a
a fall through grinder. And a good one
will cost you on the order of $2,000
plus or minus. And then if you're like,
you know what, no price too large. I'm
going to get me the absolute fantastic
home grinder. I mean, obviously there's
like industrial strength stuff that's
that's even out out there. There's this
thing called Weber Workshops that
produces unbelievably expensive but
unbelievably good stuff. So if you want
a Weber, God bless. That's a great
product.
>> Same company that makes the grills. No,
different. Got to be [laughter] totally
different. I had this exact question
yesterday. Anyway, so better grinder
goes a very long way. After that, go
invest in skills. So, there's an
incredible number of online resources
that'll teach you how to do a great job.
I'm but a student of those people. There
are many, many, many great videos you
can watch on YouTube that'll teach you
how to make a great cup of espresso.
Before you buy anything else, just go
watch all that stuff because it'll teach
you a lot of things you don't know
about. After that, you're probably going
to want to buy a good espresso machine.
The great news is that there are many
many very good espresso machines.
I'm don't want to begin religious wars
here, so I'll state my preferences, but
these are preferences. I prefer 58 mm
porter filter diameter.
Many people now swear by 54, 53 mm. You
can go up or down, but I stick to the
classics. I think the finest, most
reliable home machine is made by
Lamarzoko. that is definitely in the
multi,000 range, but that's what I have
on my counter and it's never failed me
and it's beautiful and both inside and
outside. There's lots of cool like if
you're a super nerd and you really want
to nerd out on the metrics, decent
espresso is a fantastic product, really
fun, but it's like an Android tablet
that happens to be attached to an
espresso machine. Basically, Lamarzoko
is old school. That that is the logo
you'll find in every self-respecting
coffee shop. Like the long red typically
spelled out Lamarzoko, that's a
granddaddy of them all. It's amazing.
and so on. And there are many, many
other brands that will sell you a good
espresso machine. If you're trying to go
down market a little bit, but like
bulletproof will will make a good cup
every time. Brevel,
>> people tend to sort of hate on it a
little bit because it's so consumer, but
it makes great coffee. Brevel's
surprisingly good.
>> It's very, very good. I mostly just
wanted you to showcase my obsession.
>> Yeah, your obsession. So, I'm going to
force your hand though on one here.
We're going to take a a side quest away
from pure espresso territory. ChemX,
French press, or Aerrow Press? If you
had to do coffee with one of those
three,
>> ChemX. ChemX. Why ChemX? If you're going
to go for a light roast, each type of
roast, each type of bean speaks to a
method. So, this is like another heresy,
by the way, in the modern day. I like
medium dark roast for my espresso. I
love the honeyed viscous,
you know, feels like it's too thick. You
can almost chew it. I love that in
espresso. Like that's a great cup of
espresso.
For non-espresso drinks, I actually love
thin, high clarity, low body, just give
me the pure essence of not diluted, but
the bean in water
>> and chemics are probably the best one of
those. It's really the most
controllable.
>> Mhm.
>> Beyond that, French press is great.
That's a like a campfire type setup. And
[clears throat]
>> air press, if you're going to go there,
just get an espresso machine.
ChemX, for those people wondering, it
will will cost less than $600. And I
will say also that you can get, correct
me if I'm wrong, you're going to know
this better than I do, but you can get
they're not going to be anywhere near as
sophisticated as the devices you
describe, but if you are using, for
instance, a blade
grinder, right? something that is not a
burr grinder and you get a handheld burr
grinder, which you can probably buy for
$100 or less, the difference between
those two will still be noticeable. What
would you think?
>> You're like in the territory where I I
probably like, you know what, no coffee
today. [laughter]
I'm kidding. I've been known to exhaust
the local supply of pregrown pods in
hotel rooms. So
>> there's coffee and all the beauty of it
and then there's caffeine and you know I
need both
>> different things.
>> They're not the same.
>> The spice grinders as they're known, you
can definitely make a cup of coffee with
that too. [clears throat]
>> Mhm.
>> But that said, by the way, if you must
have a thing that is not an electric
grinder, get a manual grinder. Those are
very cheap.
>> I think
>> Lido, if I were correctly, is a brand
that'll sell you like a very very
high-end, but like still an order of
magnitude cheaper than any of the stuff
that I threw out. I mean, it's a little
bit of a, you know, good workout, but
you'll make beautiful coffee with that
because there's a really nice
correlation to the lower the RPM, the
less kind of you're damaging, if you
will, the bean as you're grinding it.
So, you can actually get some amazing
taste out of manually ground beans. It
does take like 10 minutes per cup,
though, so you got to you got to be
ready.
>> This is what I'm talking about. This is
exactly what I'm talking about. So, I
wasn't totally misspeaking. Yeah, the
Lido OG manual coffee grinder. Yeah,
>> this one's 273. There are some other
options that I found at slightly lower
prices which I thought did a nice job.
It is a workout. It is a workout.
>> Yeah, switch arms every once in a while.
>> But hey, if you're going to go into the
ritual of it, I know people who have
traveled with
>> something akin to that. An arrow press
and some other stuff.
>> Air press great campfire attraction.
>> Yeah, for sure.
>> All right. I'm gonna destroy any shred
of respect that you have for me with
respect to coffee by also saying if
people want something simple like
commenter actually I really enjoy some
of their stuff. Oh the face if you guys
aren't watching video the the [laughter]
response that I just got by the way. So
I grew up drinking not just instant
coffee which was hugely popular in
Eastern Europe. I occasionally was
exposed to chory coffee which I don't
know if you ever tried that.
>> Popular in New Orleans. They've added a
lot of sugar though
>> except there's no coffee in it. It's
just sugary root.
>> Oh god. So it's just like placebo.
>> Yeah. I mean it's like kind of sort of
tastes a little bit like coffee maybe
like pour enough hot water into it. If
it's hot enough you're like ah it
doesn't smell right but whatever. In
Soviet Union was one marketed under
coffee light.
>> [laughter]
>> the coffee
beverage
stock. Something meant to evoke some
plant component that both
coffee bush and chory
>> would share. So like, well, you know,
they both have it, so it's good
[laughter] enough. It was disgusting,
but it'll wake you up.
>> Yeah. Yeah. So there is that.
>> There's that.
>> Yeah. Chory is pretty interesting from a
fiber perspective, but I'll leave that
for another conversation. Max, last
question. This might be a terrible
question to end on, but I am curious for
someone who is technical
or just a kind of individual contributor
in the sense that you were very
technical and then grew into the CEO
role and running a public company. Let's
put that aside because that's that's a
whole kettle of fish by itself. But any
books or resources that you would
recommend to people who are hoping to
become a CEO for the first time
slashfounder?
>> Yes.
So, here's a couple. There's not a
panacea, but
I will preface this by saying I have
extremely low
degree, by which I mean like zero to
negative, of respect for business books.
Vast majority of them are far too long,
present company excluded. [laughter]
business books that are verbatim
anecdotes of people who've done it are
actually high value because I think it's
very hard to distill what is inherently
a collection of unique experiences. So
like you can edit it down, but you can't
make it
>> generalizable. Yeah. To generalize it,
you're robbing the reader of the true
history of what really happened. So, I'm
a huge fan actually of what you do in
your books because there's always so
much color
directly from the source versus I think
this person meant X when they talk to me
and I'm not going to print anything the
same the thing they said. Anyway, that
said, I'm a big fan of business books
that have been distilled to business
essays because then I feel like the
author did the work of like I'm going to
generalize. I'm going to really
generalize it.
>> So, there is this book called Seven
Powers by Hamilton Hemler. M
>> if you haven't read it, it's a really
worthwhile distillation of what it takes
to build a competitively
lasting business. It talks about
why network businesses are longer living
than non-etwork businesses and what
brand actually means. Like people, oh
you know, I'm going to build a brand.
Like why why do you care about having a
brand? And so it's a great book.
distills a ton of these kind of things
that you kind of think you know, but
like they need names and terminologies
and idiosyncratic in the sense that like
I didn't think of the word power. I
didn't think of the term power until I
read his book and I I found it to be a
great kind of a distillation. It's very
short. It's slightly shorter than Master
of Margarita. So anyway, that's a good
book. Another good book that is off the
beaten path, but a great one called A
Failure of Nerve. It's a book about
leadership and it really postulates this
concept of differentiated leader. So as
a CEO, as a founder, a lot of times you
find yourself at odds with your own team
where you're making an unpopular
decision. You're firing a beloved
employee. The sort of whenever there's
doubt, there's no doubt. Then you go do
it and you're like, "Holy crap, what
have you done?" This is a So you find
yourself in these moments where you have
to persevere before and then after a
decision that you made and many, many
flavors of it. It's a good book that
kind of teaches you how to think about
it, how to tolerate the stress that
comes with it, how to sort of put up
with the pressure you're going to get
and not lose your humanity and like not
become a tyrant, but also not be someone
who is easily bowled over into like,
okay, okay, I'll reverse my decision
because then you you lose the confidence
of the of the people you're supposed to
lead. So, that's a great book. I am sure
it's in your list and everyone's list,
but if you haven't read it, if you're
trying to start a business, you should
read Influence by Chelini because that
is probably the most important social
science book published in the last 50
years. So good. It's a great book. I'm
shocked that I had never heard of Seven
Powers and I just looked it up. The
forwards written by Reed Hastings of
Netflix. I have never even heard of it.
That's shocking.
>> There you go.
>> I'm excited. Yeah. If there's one thing
you find in this podcast, any
biographies that have, they don't have
to be business related, but biographies
that have informed
>> how you approach leadership or running
companies.
>> I love biographies,
>> could be indirect, too. It could be a
biography and how it informed your view
on persistence, right, through stories
or anything.
>> I think Cherno's biography, so Cherno
wrote a bunch of these like tombs
speaking of enormous books. Yeah.
There's everything from the JP Morgan,
>> Hamilton,
>> yeah,
>> Washington, a life, Grant, Mark Twain.
>> Mark Twain is a great one.
>> Titan is a huge one.
>> Titan is probably the one that's closest
to like business advice. It's a bit of a
like how to be ruthless basically, but
that's besides the point.
>> Yeah, it's the life of John D.
Rockefeller. The cover photo looks just
like the vampire and no feratu. It's
terrifying. But yes, [laughter]
>> exactly.
>> Kind of appropo.
>> Those are great books. There's a great
book called A Mind at Play, which is
Claude Shannon's biography.
>> By the way, when I was preparing for our
conversation, not nearly as well as you
are, I was listening to your
conversation with Ed Thorp.
>> Yeah.
>> Who I knew a little bit about, but I was
like, "Oh my god, that guy is flipping
amazing." Amazing. Like, I want to be
like him when I grew up. He's now one a
of the list of people I'd like to meet
at some point in my life. I've never
encountered him. So incredible. He just
seems like an unbelievable guy. But so
he was friends with Claude Shannon, let
alone makes him unbelievably
interesting. So Claude Shannon is kind
of like a platonic ideal of what I
thought I was going to be before I left
academia cuz like this guy is just like
brilliant in every way. Like everything
he touched became this flower of
intellectual brilliance.
>> American polymath and mathematician.
Yeah.
>> Why does Shannon stick out to you so
much?
>> Fun fact, you know Claude Code named
after Shannon.
>> I did not know that. That's incredible.
Well, actually, I didn't like learn this
from entropic people, but I would be
shocked if that's not the answer. Claude
is not a common name. And Shannon is
obviously the inventor, the postulator
of the information theory, right? Father
of information theory.
>> He is
a great example of someone who worked on
some very serious stuff and was always
playful. He's like Richard Feman of
Computer Science. So, Fineman was
famously brilliant. And there's a great
quote from Murray Yelman. Somebody asked
him like what's your algorithm for
solving really hard problems like
encounter really hard problem step two
give it to Richard Fineman step three
receive solution [laughter] Shannon was
kind of that in computer science proto
computer science obviously he was
building this in the 40s '50s60s and he
managed to remain fun he managed to have
fun like he was just this unbelievable
fountain of fun ideas and he was like a
hardware tinkerer and made card counting
devices and all kinds of hilarious stuff
>> makes sense that he would know Ed Thorp
right who beat the roulette table
>> of Exactly. And so that's a good book
about him. These days it's so hard to
read books because there's so much
content online in podcast and blog form.
>> So much content online feels ephemeral.
So you're like, I must read this now cuz
it might scroll off and I'll never see
it again. A book is in my hand. Like I
have books in my backpack that I travel
with that I've been meaning to read for
half a year now and I still haven't
opened them. Just like carry the weight.
I have a like a 500page graphic novel
that I'm going to be lugging to New York
City because still the digital
experience just doesn't do it. But you
know the [snorts] the burden I bear
>> I keep on looking for a great digital
graphic novel consumption experience but
it does not come close. [laughter]
>> It's not there. We'll be able to replay
our dreams before we get that. Uh Max,
[clears throat]
so much fun to hang. Thanks for taking
the time. And where would you like to
point people? We've got livechin.com. We
have sci-fi.vc. We have various social.
>> Affirm.
>> Affirm. Of course. Affirm.com. There's a
lot we could point people to. Anything
else you'd like to add? Whether it's
pointing people somewhere or closing
comments, anything at all?
>> No, my my work is out there. I try to
build in public. If you're interested in
a firm, obviously affirm.com is where
you find that. I tend to go deep, so my
project list is short at any given
moment, but leftchen.net, at le either
one is the list of those things.
>> Amazing. Max, thank you again for taking
the time and everybody listening. We
will link to all of the things we
mentioned, books and resources and
people and everything else. Affirm of
course and on and on and on in the show
notes as per usual at tim.blog/mpodcast.
Just search Levchin. I can promise you
he will be the only one. I might be the
only Max in fact on the podcast so far.
We'll find out. I might eat my words.
And until next time, of course, thank
you for tuning in. Be just a bit kinder
than is necessary to others, but also to
yourself.
And that's all for now. Thanks again,
Max.
>> Great to see you. Safe travels.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video features a wide-ranging conversation with Max Levchin, covering his views on marriage, leadership, fiction, technology, and his entrepreneurial journey. Levchin shares insights into the secret of a successful marriage, his obsession with data and tracking, his passion for cycling, and the founding philosophy behind Affirm, a financial technology company that aims to provide consumer-friendly alternatives to traditional lending.
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