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”Human + AI Beats Both Alone" - Alix Pasquet on Analog Training

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”Human + AI Beats Both Alone" - Alix Pasquet on Analog Training

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1888 segments

0:00

I run a hedge fund. We are very

0:03

different than others uh in many ways

0:06

and we like to deal

0:10

with a few things. One is finding the

0:13

inefficiencies of our business and

0:15

exploiting them. And then the second

0:18

thing that we like to do is finding the

0:20

problems that often people are not even

0:23

aware of and solving them. And both

0:25

these things give us an advantage on top

0:29

of the advantages that we have and helps

0:32

us accomplish our goals, right? Uh which

0:35

is make a lot of money for our partners

0:39

with as little risk as possible. Um, and

0:42

one of the problems currently popping up

0:45

in our business is,

0:48

uh, young people

0:50

no longer are trained like the boomer or

0:55

unk PMs that are out there, right? Um,

1:01

and the problem with that is the young

1:03

guys are they're very good at, you know,

1:06

they they they they are taught modeling,

1:09

uh, freshman and sophomore year in

1:13

college. They are taught the accounting,

1:16

they are taught all of that stuff. But

1:18

the problem, and by the way, they're

1:20

very good at it. I could never compete

1:24

with the current students that are in in

1:27

schools today. Um the other day I was at

1:30

my alma mater and I was looking at the

1:34

incoming crew of students. I'm like

1:36

these kids trance me intellectually.

1:39

Um but what do they lack? They lack what

1:43

we call analog training. And I'll go

1:45

into to to

1:48

uh what that is, okay? But first, um, we

1:53

have a problem. The problem is

1:55

Idiocracy. Now, I don't know if you've

1:58

seen this movie. It's a hilarious movie

2:01

from uh, I think 20 years ago. It's

2:05

about a guy that that in an army

2:08

experiment gone gone wrong gets put

2:13

uh

2:15

in a

2:17

uh

2:19

uh in a cell that stores his body for

2:23

200 years and then a couple hundred

2:24

years he comes back out. And even though

2:28

he was an average man in his current

2:31

time, he ends up being a genius 200

2:33

years from now because of how bad

2:34

society has deteriorated.

2:37

And one of the examples is crops are

2:41

dying because 200 years from now the

2:44

idea is to put Gatorade on crops to make

2:47

them grow. And he comes out, he's like,

2:49

"No guys, we should put water." And ends

2:52

up solving a famine crisis. Um now

2:57

you know this the picture on the right

2:59

says Idiocracy was just supposed to be a

3:01

movie not a documentary. There is a

3:04

certain element of of society becoming

3:09

idiocracy. Uh um and and by the way if

3:14

you think business and culture setters

3:19

are trying to help solve this problem

3:21

they're not. Um uh if you watch the

3:25

latest Joe Rogan, Matt Damon, and Ben

3:27

Affleck podcast, they talk about how

3:30

movies today

3:32

to be able to make money, they're making

3:35

them to deal with people that are

3:37

looking at two screens at the same time,

3:39

both the movie and the screen. So

3:42

throughout the movie, they put in scenes

3:45

that it reiterate what the plot is to

3:49

make sure that it's okay while you're

3:50

not paying attention that you still

3:52

capture what's going on. So instead of

3:55

making it you live up to the movie,

3:58

they're having the movie live down to

4:00

where current state of society is and

4:02

just in my opinion making it worse. Now,

4:05

I know I sound like a [ __ ] boomer,

4:08

and I I know I am, but we're seeing this

4:13

uh come in in the results of young

4:15

investors today and the the output and

4:18

the work that they do. Okay. By the way,

4:22

the other uh sign that this might be a

4:25

problem is a lot of Silicon Valley exe

4:28

executives don't allow their kids to use

4:31

the products they built. They don't

4:33

allow them to use cell phones till a

4:34

certain time. They don't allow them to

4:36

use iPads till a certain time. You know,

4:38

they're sending them to schools like the

4:40

Waldorf school that doesn't allow

4:42

computers. You know, it's just literally

4:45

using analog tools. There's a school in

4:48

Switzerland that I'm thinking of sending

4:50

my son to when he's a certain age where

4:52

there's no phones allowed, no computers.

4:54

All you do is read and write memos for

4:58

for a semester. That's very powerful in

5:01

terms of of of of

5:04

you know thinking under constraints and

5:06

the problem with modern tools today is

5:10

they don't have constraints and that's

5:13

very dangerous.

5:15

Hey, thank you so much for listening to

5:16

all open. If you want to be able to

5:18

attend talks like these live, sign up

5:21

for my substack below. I'll be posting

5:23

all future events there and I'm looking

5:25

forward to seeing you.

5:28

>> All right. You saw me talk about this

5:30

before. Uh this is the generational

5:33

battle. Now this is a global problem

5:36

that I just like the slide because it

5:38

shows it in the US. So so currently the

5:41

baby boomers have $76 trillion.

5:45

Uh Gen X, which is my generation, we

5:47

have $ 37 trillion in wealth. The silent

5:51

generation, so those are my

5:52

grandparents, your great-grandparents,

5:55

uh they have 19 trillion. And then

5:57

millennials have 13 trillion. And then

5:59

you have the zoomers, the baby zoomers,

6:01

sorry, the excuse me, the zoomers that

6:04

have, you know, we actually don't know,

6:06

but they're they're ramping up. What's

6:08

happening here is the first baby boomer

6:10

is reaching 80. Actually, he's reached

6:13

80 this year, right? And that wealth is

6:17

trickling down.

6:19

Okay? So, let me step back. We're very

6:22

thematic in our investing. It's not just

6:24

that we want great fundamentals, but we

6:27

want themes that are pushing those

6:28

fundamentals forward.

6:31

You know, it's one of the secrets of

6:32

investing is you want to be part of

6:34

great themes. Last night I had dinner

6:37

with a very strong PM,

6:40

probably one of the best PMs in the

6:41

world, and he was talking about his

6:44

analyst class from 1999,

6:48

and how all the ones that went into tech

6:52

are worth 50, if not 100 times the ones

6:55

that went into other sectors, despite

6:58

the the in his opinion, the IQ's of the

7:03

guys that were in the other sectors were

7:05

way better. And why is that? Because

7:07

they were part of the the right rising

7:10

tide in terms of wealth creation. There

7:13

are reasons why technology was the right

7:16

sector and theme to be pushed in. Um now

7:20

is it going to be the right sector and

7:21

theme to be pushed in in the future? I

7:22

don't know. But but still it helps to

7:25

have the best weapons, right? So

7:27

thematically we look for themes like we

7:30

call this the boomers to zoomers theme

7:32

that what is happening with wealth as it

7:35

trickles down to Gen X then millennials

7:39

then baby zoomers. But one of the things

7:43

uh that you'll see is the Gen X guys

7:48

were the last generation to be trained

7:50

with analog tools but really know how to

7:53

use digital tools as well. Whereas the

7:56

millennials and the zoomers were more

7:59

trained with digital tools. And the

8:01

problem with that is they lack the

8:04

thinking under constraints that we had

8:09

when we were reading, writing, you know,

8:13

using things like, you know, these like

8:15

notebooks, right? Um and it it

8:21

constraints are powerful because they

8:24

force you to to to break them. Uh and

8:28

thinking without constraints uh can be

8:31

very dangerous. And and by the way, um

8:34

to use the analogy, the way you train

8:38

special forces in the military

8:41

is you don't give them the special

8:44

weapons that can shoot around corners,

8:46

the goggles where you can see all your

8:48

teammates are at night, the infrared

8:50

goggles and all these things from day

8:52

one. No, you drop them in the jungle

8:55

with a knife that they have to hold in

8:57

their mouths and you say, "Dude, see you

9:00

in two weeks." And the guy's like, "I

9:01

don't have any food." Work it out. By

9:04

the way, we're going to be messing with

9:06

you in these two weeks. So, you better

9:07

learn how to survive. You first learn

9:09

how to survive with your mind first.

9:13

What we call in our in our business the

9:15

10K and a pencil approach. I want you to

9:19

be good enough that you don't need any

9:22

of the tools.

9:24

You have a 10K. You read it and with a

9:26

pencil, you're able to hammer out what

9:28

is this business worth? What are the

9:30

three things that matter and where do

9:32

you think is going to happen in the in

9:34

the next 18 months to three years?

9:36

That's it.

9:38

Very very hard for the new school kids

9:40

to do that by the way.

9:43

Okay. So, we talk about this a lot in my

9:47

firm. Uh it comes from

9:52

my background as a professional gambler.

9:56

Um,

9:59

I never looked to play against

10:01

professionals.

10:03

That was a waste of time and money. You

10:06

looked to play when you were gambling

10:08

against rich people with big egos that

10:11

did not know how to gamble as well as

10:13

you did, right? Same thing matters in

10:16

business. Same thing matters in the

10:18

military. You know, there's a saying in

10:20

the military. um if you find yourself in

10:22

a fair fight, you haven't planned your

10:25

mission properly,

10:27

right? And one thing that you'll see in

10:31

what we call internet 3.0, and I learned

10:34

this from a very talented PM called Doug

10:36

Douglas Schwarz, uh he was teaching me

10:39

about internet 1.0,

10:41

internet 2.0, internet 3.0. And internet

10:44

1.0 And it was like Yahoo,

10:47

Geio Cities and the the first internet

10:49

sites which was disrupting traditional

10:54

business but not really. Internet 2.0

10:57

which was Amazon, Google, Facebook that

11:01

really disrupted a lot of businesses.

11:03

Think about traditional ad agencies,

11:06

traditional advertising, newspapers,

11:08

yellow pages. I mean do you guys even

11:11

know what yellow pages are? You know,

11:12

these are all businesses that were

11:14

disrupted by internet 2.0. And then

11:18

internet 3.0, which is AI and blockchain

11:22

enabled internet, in our opinion, is

11:25

going to be even more disruptive, but

11:27

more importantly, internet 3.0 is going

11:30

to eat out internet 2.0 and most likely

11:33

crush them as well. Um, and what you'll

11:37

see is whenever you study a business,

11:40

it's just like an ecosystem. You have to

11:42

study who are the predators and who are

11:45

the prey,

11:47

right? Who are the companies that are

11:50

literally going to wipe out

11:53

um uh the other other companies? When

11:56

you study an ecosystem, it's always

11:59

predator prey dynamics, right? The top

12:01

predict like a pond where there's like

12:04

big fish, mediumsized fish, small fish.

12:08

The big fish sometimes prey on the

12:09

mediumsized fish. So medium sized fish

12:11

sometimes bring a small fish. It's

12:12

really interesting, by the way, when you

12:14

introduce another predator to a pond.

12:16

What usually happens is the top

12:18

predators try to fight the new predator,

12:21

but then they realize it's really

12:23

costly. So those guys turn on those

12:25

guys, the middle guys, and then the

12:27

middle guys then turn on the small guys,

12:29

and you get what's called a ecosystem

12:31

wipeout where everybody just wip start

12:33

wiping out each other until they

12:35

stabilize

12:36

u ecologically. Again, this happens in

12:39

companies. If you study, for example,

12:42

when Amazon when Amazon entered sports

12:45

retailing,

12:47

they fought Dick Sporting Goods first.

12:50

Then Dix was like, "Yeah, I don't really

12:52

like fighting this Amazon guy." So, what

12:54

did they do? They turned on everybody

12:56

else and literally started wiping out

12:58

guys. Um, so one thing you'll see in the

13:03

age of AI is that the predator prey

13:06

dynamics are amplifying and

13:08

accelerating.

13:09

Okay, take a look at what's going on

13:12

with SAS software today,

13:15

right? Where the AI companies supposedly

13:18

are wiping out these businesses. By the

13:21

way, in some cases it's unclear if

13:24

they've impacted them, but they've

13:26

impacted their narratives which impact

13:29

their multiples and people perceive then

13:33

that they're being impacted and then

13:35

that might impact seeks uh that they

13:37

sell. It might impact consumption. It's

13:40

actually unclear if there is going to be

13:43

an impact. We think in certain cases

13:45

there are by the way but

13:49

what's clear is that the predator prey

13:53

dynamics are amplify and accelerating

13:55

okay and it's happening across business.

13:58

There's also

14:00

um there are other things that drive

14:02

predator prey dynamics. Uh by the way

14:05

very important book to read is the book

14:08

on this. It's called From Predators to

14:10

Icons, exposing the myth of the business

14:12

hero. By the way, was written by a

14:16

French academic and then translated by

14:20

another academic. So, you have to be a

14:22

bit careful. It's also fairly clear, you

14:25

know, to me that these guys might be

14:27

socialists

14:28

um or at least maybe perhaps not

14:31

socialist, but perhaps French. uh but

14:33

they describe

14:36

how the best entrepreneurs start out as

14:39

predators and then eventually

14:42

redo their their history to look like

14:45

icons. So we see them as today as iconic

14:49

and then we're like we have to behave

14:51

like they do but we forget that what got

14:53

them to be to become who they became was

14:56

they became like predators, right? And

14:58

it's and again predator pynamics are

15:02

amplify and accelerating. Okay, so just

15:03

just recall that.

15:06

Then we have uh master naan. So there's

15:10

a Chinese uh master called master naan.

15:14

I I had to study him when I was a kid.

15:17

um because my parents uh had me study

15:19

him and he's brilliant and you can read

15:23

his books and uh Joshua Ramo mentions an

15:27

anecdote

15:29

uh from master non in his brilliant book

15:32

called the seven sense which is about

15:35

power fortune survival in the age of

15:37

networks um

15:40

genius book also you should read uh the

15:44

age of the unthinkable in my opinion the

15:46

best strategic book uh uh ever written

15:49

for a bunch of reasons uh especially in

15:51

modern times. But Master Nun uh has an

15:55

anecdote. He says the disease of the

15:58

19th century

16:00

was the flu. Why? because it was the

16:06

first time people were coming from rural

16:08

area and to cities and

16:12

people were not used to these cities and

16:14

being packed all in one place we had the

16:17

disease called the flu.

16:20

Right? And then he says the disease of

16:24

the 20th century is cancer. And the

16:27

reason why is we created all these

16:30

ingredients and labs that our bodies are

16:33

not used to and put it into our food

16:36

into our environments and our bodies are

16:38

rebelling and it's causing uh cancer.

16:42

Right? But he says the disease of the

16:44

21st century is going to be madness.

16:47

And the reason why is because we're

16:50

being connected

16:52

because of modern communications tools

16:55

to cultures, philosophies,

16:58

societies even that we're not really

17:00

supposed to be connected to as humans.

17:03

And we actually don't know how to deal

17:05

with that. And that's why the disease of

17:08

21st century is going to be madness.

17:10

Already you're kind of seeing signs of

17:13

that. things that pop up and down, pop

17:16

up and down in society. Um, and it's

17:19

happening very fast and unbelievably

17:23

it's as if people are like have the

17:25

memory of a goldfish. They believe in

17:28

things and they stop believing and

17:29

almost forget the fact that they

17:30

believed in it. And part of the reason I

17:33

think is the the digital

17:36

uh uh uh intoxications that are that are

17:40

happening.

17:41

All right. Now, I talked about this in

17:45

your last

17:46

uh thing. It's very important to know

17:49

how to compete with AI. Um we call it

17:52

competing with the machines. Imagine a

17:55

world James Cameron world where you have

17:58

a bunch of Terminators running around.

18:00

How would you compete with them and even

18:03

defeat them? And and and AI in many ways

18:09

uh us for example in my firm, we don't

18:12

use the AI tools. We've decided they are

18:16

extremely dangerous to use. Part of the

18:19

reason we think they're dangerous to use

18:20

is

18:22

AI tools

18:24

we believe are portfolio management

18:27

tools. They're not analyst tools. An

18:31

analyst needs to operate under

18:33

constraints. You know, when you

18:35

suboptimize an analyst, you actually

18:38

optimize the performance of a fund.

18:41

Whereas, if you overoptimize an analyst,

18:43

it makes them lazy and less creative,

18:46

right? Creativity is driven by a lack of

18:50

resources, not an abundance of

18:52

resources. Right? That's actually a

18:54

principle of our business. We call it

18:55

sidelor.

18:57

uh creativity is driven by a lack of

19:00

resources and and when you look you give

19:03

AI to an analyst you ask questions it

19:07

almost gives them a sense that oh I

19:09

answered the question no

19:12

all it does is gets you to the consensus

19:15

point of view faster

19:17

right whereas if it took a week to have

19:20

a consensus point of view before today

19:22

you get to a consensus point of view

19:24

within a day with AI but The problem

19:27

with that though is that it's in the

19:29

friction while you're thinking about

19:31

something that you come up with the

19:33

questions that you really have to

19:34

answer. It's when you're in the field

19:36

talking to a customer that you come up

19:39

with the the the right questions. It's

19:42

when you're testing out a product that

19:45

you come up with the right insights, not

19:47

when you use the AI tools. Okay? So, an

19:51

analyst has several investment skills.

19:55

recall of past patterns, mental

19:57

visualization of a business within the

19:59

feedback loop of its ecosystem, reading

20:01

between the lines. So, what reading

20:03

between the lines is a CEO says in a

20:06

transcript, this is what is happening.

20:10

And you read between the lines and

20:11

you're like, uh, yeah, that's what he

20:13

says, but here's what his incentives,

20:16

his culture,

20:18

and and what they're not saying is,

20:22

right? As an analyst, it's very

20:24

important that you have to you read

20:25

between the lines. Uh make leaps of

20:29

judgment. A leap of judgment is when you

20:32

analyze a business and you're like,

20:33

"Wow, they have a problem with their

20:35

sales department."

20:38

And then you say, "Oh, they have a

20:41

problem with their sales department

20:42

because there's something wrong with the

20:44

board of directors."

20:46

Right? you just you you think the the

20:49

location of the problem is not where the

20:52

solution of the problem is right and

20:55

when you when you study by the way it's

20:58

very important to study systems thinking

21:00

complexity chaos theory ecology that

21:03

kind of shows you that systems like

21:05

companies behave in very strange ways

21:08

you try to solve something at the part

21:10

of the system where the problem is it

21:12

doesn't fix it often you have to fix it

21:14

somewhere totally different like for For

21:16

example,

21:18

um I used to have a problem with my knee

21:20

and I go to the knee doctor in America

21:22

and the American doctor is like, "We

21:24

we're going to cut open your knee and

21:26

cut and shave this so that your knee can

21:28

work." And then I'm at my acupuncturist,

21:31

which happens to be a Chinese doctor.

21:33

And he's like, he looks at me, he's

21:34

like, "What's wrong with your knee?" I'm

21:35

like, "It hurts." And he's like, looks

21:37

at me, he's like, "It's not your knee,

21:38

it's your hip." I'm like, "What do you

21:40

mean?" He's like, "Well, your hip is

21:42

weak." So the the muscle is taking the

21:45

bone your your your your thigh bone and

21:49

actually shifting on top of your knee

21:51

and now your knee is hurting. So I'm

21:53

like what do I do? He's like just do uh

21:56

a hip exercises strengthen the muscle.

21:58

Two days of those exercises my knee pain

22:00

went away. So which do you prefer? Knee

22:04

pain or $35,000 surgery and three months

22:07

of recovery the American way? you know

22:09

let's let's let's go towards fixing it

22:11

the Chinese way right so so again a leap

22:15

of judgment you know that's a very

22:18

powerful analytical uh skill okay and

22:22

then synthesize putting everything

22:24

together where you're like okay you

22:26

study competitive strategy you study

22:28

valuation you study governance of the

22:32

business and you're able to synthesize

22:33

all of that and insight as to hey it's a

22:36

long or dude everybody's wrong it's a

22:38

short, right?

22:41

Our insight about AI is that AI tools

22:44

inhibit or dull all of these skills,

22:48

especially in rookies, especially in

22:51

young young analysts. Okay.

22:54

All right. Very important to read our

22:58

freestyle future in uh in this book by

23:01

Tyler Cowan. It's a chapter on freestyle

23:04

chess. Freestyle chess is when uh

23:08

tournaments are between humans

23:12

or human plus computer teams or computer

23:17

teams and everybody is just freestyling.

23:19

You can use whatever you want. And the

23:22

inside is human plus computer ends up

23:25

being both human and computer which is

23:28

interesting. So, it's a combination of

23:31

analog thinking, human and digital

23:34

thinking.

23:36

That's going to be the combination that

23:38

we think wins. If you were to only pick

23:40

one in my opinion, I would just pick

23:42

analog for a lot of reasons. And by the

23:45

way, frankly, you know, to be to be very

23:48

open, for reasons that competitively

23:52

we cannot disclose publicly, we've

23:54

actually found flaws in the digital

23:57

tools that make people make catastrophic

24:00

mistakes. And for competitive reasons,

24:03

I'm not allowed to say it, but trust me,

24:06

they're there. Look for them. One of the

24:09

places you'll find it is in this chapter

24:12

if you're going to read it. Since the

24:14

young people don't read anymore, maybe

24:15

you'll never find it, but read this

24:17

[ __ ] chapter. Trust me on this.

24:22

One of his insights is that in a analog

24:25

plus digital way, both secrecy and

24:29

deception go up. That's interesting,

24:33

right? Why is that? And is that also

24:36

happening at companies?

24:39

Important question to answer.

24:41

All right. Young people don't read

24:43

anymore. This is a quote from Henry. Uh,

24:47

and I'll read it out loud because I

24:49

think it's important. It says, "Reading

24:51

books require you to form concepts, to

24:54

train your mind to relationships. A book

24:56

is a large intellectual construction.

24:59

You can't hold it all in your mind

25:01

easily or at once. You have to struggle

25:04

mentally to internalize it. Now there is

25:07

no need to internalize because each fact

25:09

can instantly be called up again on the

25:11

computer. There is no context, no

25:14

motive. Information is not knowledge.

25:17

People are not readers but researchers.

25:19

They float on the surface. This new

25:21

thinking erases context. He's talking

25:23

about computer thinking. It disagregates

25:26

everything. All this makes strategic

25:29

thinking about world order or by the way

25:32

on companies nearly impossible to

25:34

achieve. Reading books requires you to

25:37

form concepts to train your mind to

25:39

relationships. A book is a large

25:41

intellectual construction. You can't

25:43

hold it all. Sorry, I just realized that

25:46

I'm repeating this twice, but forgive

25:48

me. Okay. What does Henry mean? Well,

25:53

it means that

25:56

when you're thinking about a book, not

25:59

only are you absorbing the intellectual

26:01

capital of the writer, you know, it took

26:04

him two years to write it, you can read

26:06

it in less than three days. For me, I

26:08

always thought that was magical that I

26:10

could take all that knowledge from

26:11

somebody and took it to me in a couple

26:14

days. But it allows you to imagine

26:18

what's not written. You see, companies,

26:23

the things they do that give them an

26:25

advantage, especially when they're

26:27

crushing another company, they're not

26:30

going to put that in a 10K or 10 Q.

26:34

Neither will a hedge fund manager that

26:36

has competitive advantages. He's not

26:39

going to put in his memos or his

26:40

letters, this is what we're doing to get

26:42

an edge. No, they don't have to disclose

26:45

that. I wouldn't disclose that if I was

26:47

them. But when you read the questions

26:50

you'll ask will more or less find what

26:53

those advantages are if you're looking

26:55

for them. Okay. So it's very important

26:57

to read

26:59

have to remember to disagregate this

27:01

quote later. All right. Other problems.

27:04

So we talked about it. Do you have a

27:06

question Ethan?

27:07

Okay. Uh other problems. We talked about

27:10

artificial intelligence. Here's another

27:12

problem. By the way this is our term for

27:15

it. I don't know if it has a term in the

27:17

investment business, but we call the

27:19

junior senior problem.

27:22

Hedge funds are realizing that they

27:24

don't need to hire junior guys anymore.

27:27

And the reason why is a lot of AI tools

27:30

are as good as the junior guys now,

27:35

right? And the other problem is when the

27:39

portfolio manager ask a junior guy, hey,

27:41

that's great. Congratulations. You tell

27:43

me that it's a long, it's a short, but

27:46

this just happened. What's the CEO

27:49

thinking right now? The junior guys have

27:52

a hard time explaining that. Whereas the

27:55

senior guys that have seen a lot more

27:57

reps, that have read all the books, that

28:00

have read uh all the memos, they're

28:03

like, "You know what? Here's what I

28:05

think the CEO is thinking. I may not be

28:07

right, but at least you give the

28:09

portfolio manager some options as to

28:12

what the the the CEO of the company or

28:16

what might be happening that is not in a

28:18

10K or 10 Q or even a press release,

28:23

right? And what the the the PMs are

28:26

realizing is I don't want to hire junior

28:28

guys anymore. I want to hire just senior

28:30

analysts, people that have seen a lot

28:32

more reps. One of the ways you see rats,

28:35

by the way, is reading. Okay. Another

28:38

problem. There's a mental health

28:40

epidemic going on. This is a serious

28:44

serious issue. We see people that are

28:47

self-sabotaging

28:48

left, right, and center right now. It

28:51

It's happening more and more. And not

28:52

only that, they don't know how to deal

28:55

with uh this mental health problem.

28:57

There's too much hyper stimulants.

29:00

There's too there's a lack of the

29:02

nutrition is freaking terrible. No one

29:05

it spends time on recovery activities.

29:08

Spiritual practices are on the downside.

29:11

It uh the there's all sorts of mental

29:14

health problems that are popping up. You

29:16

know, there's a comedian Sebastian

29:18

Maniscalico. He's blaming it on the

29:20

internet because he says if you know if

29:21

you were crazy 50 years ago, you didn't

29:24

really find other people that were crazy

29:26

like you. He's like, "Today,

29:30

if you like to dress like a baby, you

29:32

can find people on the internet and get

29:34

together at the conference of everybody

29:36

that likes to dress like a baby, you

29:38

know, and and it's hilarious, but it's

29:41

true, you know. The internet can be very

29:43

dangerous for for for for that stuff."

29:46

Um, okay. Other problem, the millennials

29:49

and zoomers have the attention spans of

29:51

gnats. Okay. Very dangerous. Very very

29:55

dangerous. fertility is crashing.

29:59

It's a catastrophe. Meaning the the

30:02

ability to having kids and it's

30:04

happening globally by the way where

30:07

people have less and less kids on a on a

30:10

yearly basis. It's even been happening

30:11

in my country where I'm from where in

30:14

Haiti where we literally [ __ ] like

30:15

rabbits but for somehow le we're having

30:18

less and less kids every year. Right.

30:21

Okay. Talked about master nuns disease

30:24

of the 21st century. And then there's

30:26

something else that is happening which

30:28

is when you talk to an analyst

30:32

he hasn't read all the books about the

30:34

historical context of our business. So

30:36

he looks at a situation and it doesn't

30:39

remind him of a past period, right? It

30:42

doesn't remind him of, hey, this is

30:43

actually what happened in the late 90s

30:45

with this group of stock. That can be

30:47

very helpful by the way to for for

30:49

judgment.

30:51

Okay?

30:53

But there are solutions to all these

30:56

problems. This is my mentor Peter

30:58

Kaufman in my opinion. Uh me and a group

31:02

of guys, we all call him Uncle Peter.

31:05

Um,

31:08

I am forever grateful

31:12

for the things that Peter has taught me

31:16

and to this day I'm like, "Wow, they're

31:18

probably in my opinion

31:21

definitely in the top five of investment

31:24

teachers out there. I put him on top

31:26

with

31:28

Charlie Mer, Warren Buffett, Peter

31:31

Kaufman, Michael Moeson, and I would put

31:35

Peter Theel in terms of people that I've

31:38

learned so much for investing. I mean,

31:40

there are others as well, by the way.

31:42

Some that don't like to be named, but

31:44

Bill Miller, you know, people that I

31:46

think I've learned a lot from uh on

31:50

investing

31:51

um or being a great person. And there's

31:54

these quotes that Peter loves and he's

31:57

he gives you these pens with these

31:59

quotes on them. And one of them is what

32:02

the pupil must learn if he learns

32:04

anything at all is that the world will

32:06

do most of the work for you provided you

32:09

cooperate with it by identifying how it

32:11

really works and aligning with those

32:13

realities. If we do not let the world

32:15

teach us, it teaches a lesson.

32:18

Teaches us a lesson. And he says, "Most

32:21

geniuses, especially those who lead

32:23

others, prosper not by deconstructing

32:26

intricate complexities, but by

32:28

exploiting unrecognized simplicities.

32:31

I actually believe that analog training

32:35

is powerful for for for these for as an

32:39

unrecognized simplicity, but also to

32:42

help us find the ways to align how the

32:46

world works.

32:48

All right. Here's one of the first

32:51

tools, analog tools I'm going to teach

32:54

you. Um, frameworks.

32:58

So, what a framework is is

33:01

it's a list of ways of thinking that you

33:05

look at an investment through,

33:09

right? Or a life situation. So, for

33:11

example, um for relationships,

33:15

the five languages of love is a great

33:18

book for relationships.

33:21

Not everybody's loves the same way or

33:24

not everybody experiences love the same

33:26

way. And you if you're with a friend or

33:29

a boyfriend or girlfriend and you don't

33:33

know their love language, you might be

33:35

having communication issues. Your love

33:37

language not the same. That's a

33:39

framework that helps you. the pro it's

33:41

not always correct but the probability

33:44

of using that framework and it being

33:46

very powerful is is very helpful to

33:49

judgment and decision- making and also

33:51

results right so here are some of the

33:54

frameworks there's many more than this

33:56

but here are some of the ones I like

33:57

right now so Mike Maples who runs a VC

34:00

firm and has had very successful

34:02

investments

34:04

uh some 100 baggers

34:06

um uh he has these frameworks one of

34:10

them is when he's looking at a at a

34:11

company, he asks, "Hey, have they

34:14

stumbled on an insight?"

34:17

So, do they know something or have an

34:21

insight that the world doesn't realize

34:23

yet?

34:25

Right? And then another framework he has

34:27

is did the company harness an inflection

34:30

point? So, it's one thing

34:34

for Uber to exist, but what was the

34:37

inflection point that Uber or Lyft, by

34:40

the way, uh Mike was an investor in Lyft

34:42

and actually made a lot of money in

34:43

Lyft. What was the inflection point that

34:47

Uber leveraged? Well, it was the

34:49

creation of the iPhone,

34:52

right? the iPhone enabled all of these

34:55

different

34:56

uh uh uh businesses to exist.

35:00

Right? So that's what he means by an

35:02

inflection point. And the third one

35:04

which by the way I think is very

35:05

powerful is he calls it founder future

35:08

fit. And that's his f favorite framework

35:11

where the founder that he's investing in

35:15

he wants him to already be in the

35:17

future.

35:19

So he gives the example of Eric, the

35:22

founder of Zoom, our current host, and

35:26

and says if you look at Eric when he

35:29

created Zoom, he had already been

35:32

working at Cisco on on on

35:36

web a video conferencing for 10 years.

35:40

So when he created Zoom, it was already

35:42

a product that was of the future. We

35:45

just hadn't used it yet. The saying by

35:47

the way comes from uh found the future

35:50

fit comes from this the saying the

35:52

future is already here it's just not

35:54

evenly distributed yet right and that's

35:57

a very powerful

36:00

uh uh uh way of thinking because when

36:04

you invest in a company are they doing

36:06

things that you know it's like what it's

36:08

like everybody's going to have this

36:10

eventually it's it's the guy is the

36:12

founder future fit if you look at a

36:15

founder that has found their future fit

36:17

by it's Elon. Elon clearly is living in

36:21

a in the future and we're just like it's

36:24

just not evenly distributed yet, but it

36:26

will be. Okay. You have standard equity

36:29

frameworks. So value stocks,

36:34

there's things that matter to them. Do

36:35

you know them? That's a framework. It's

36:38

a frame that allows you to work, right?

36:40

Growth stocks, restructurings,

36:42

turnarounds, events, spin-offs. By the

36:44

way, in the early odds, there was a

36:45

group of investors that said, "Okay, the

36:49

best value investments in the world.

36:51

Let's study all of them and find out

36:53

what they have in common." Same for

36:55

growth, same for turnarounds. And by the

36:58

way, when they were the only ones that

37:00

had this approach, it was very powerful.

37:02

They made a lot of money. Part of the

37:03

mistakes they made is they taught it to

37:05

everybody else. Now, everybody has it.

37:07

And then that that approach actually

37:10

started declining in results. Same for

37:12

shorts. What have been the best frauds?

37:15

What do they have in common? And

37:16

whenever you look at another fraud, do

37:18

they do does it also apply? Same for

37:21

fads. Same for failures. Failures is

37:25

stuff like um a bankruptcy, right? Uh

37:30

what have been the fakes? So fakes is

37:32

when I I call them fake value. Fake

37:34

growth is something that looks like a

37:36

growth company, but it doesn't have the

37:38

return invested capital and eventually

37:41

it's going to crack. Same for value,

37:43

fake turnarounds. We love when a

37:45

turnaround is failing and we love to

37:47

short those. Uh, by the way, we do short

37:50

stocks in my firm. We love shorting

37:53

stocks in my firm and we're pretty good

37:55

at it. Uh, let me, you know, touch wood

37:59

because the market goddesses are

38:01

listening and this is when you're being,

38:02

oh, you're good at it. Watch this [ __ ]

38:04

Boom. And they hit you, you know. So,

38:06

so, so it's something that we look to be

38:09

very good at. uh the short side because

38:13

I love running money long short. Right

38:15

now, for example, I don't know what's

38:17

happening in the market. I haven't even

38:18

looked at the opening yet, but I know

38:20

that the market's going down. My shorts

38:23

are protecting me. So, Peter Lynch and

38:25

One Up on Wall Street, he has a list of

38:28

final checklist page uh chapter 15. Must

38:32

read. By the way, those two books that

38:34

you see, you can be a stock market

38:37

genius and one up on Wall Street has

38:39

created more sention and billionaires

38:42

than probably any other book. Should you

38:45

be reading them? Yes, you should.

38:50

Very important to study and read mental

38:52

models. My mentor, Charlie Mer. Uh

38:55

Charlie Munger is everybody's mentor at

38:57

this point. Uh I miss him dearly.

39:02

um a very wise man. By the way, I'm very

39:06

much into elder culture and it's

39:10

something that we're missing that

39:12

younger people miss today is they don't

39:14

spend enough time with their elders. You

39:16

see an elder, he has the battle scars.

39:20

He's made the mistakes. If you go and

39:23

ask them, hey, I'm thinking about doing

39:25

X. What do you think I should do or how

39:29

do I go about it? very often he'll give

39:32

you insights and he's like look when I

39:34

tried to do that here's what happened

39:35

and let me show you the scar on my back

39:38

right for for when I [ __ ] up when I

39:40

did that and and I think a lot of

39:43

younger people are losing elder culture

39:47

you know they're they're they've made

39:49

the mistakes before you know they have

39:51

insights go talk to them very important

39:55

uh uh but mental models Charlie says you

39:59

got to take the best mental models from

40:00

economics, psychology,

40:02

philosophy, physics, evolution, biology,

40:05

and and and

40:07

have them in your mind because when

40:08

you're looking at a situation, very

40:11

often it's those different tools that

40:13

are going to help you. Oh, here's what's

40:15

happening. And mental models help your

40:18

memory. So, so people, they've done

40:21

studies on this. people that use mental

40:23

models remember more because when you

40:25

look at something or you read something,

40:28

the mental model is like the hook that

40:31

in your mind, whatever you're reading,

40:33

you hang it on.

40:35

Right? By the way, u few things to

40:38

remember. One,

40:40

all models are wrong, some are useful.

40:43

That's not a quote from me. That's Mary

40:45

Galman, right? It's like when you're

40:47

looking at a reality and you're taking a

40:49

model putting on top of it, it's like

40:51

putting a map on top of the reality. The

40:54

map is not the territory, right? That's

40:57

actually a principle from NLP, uh,

40:59

neural linguistic programming, which if

41:02

I shouldn't include a slide on this, god

41:04

damn it. Um,

41:07

sorry, one second.

41:10

And I will. So NLP

41:14

um is a science from the 70s. It's more

41:17

or less been forgotten for a bunch of

41:18

reasons. There's still a darance to it.

41:20

I was trained in it. Is how do you take

41:22

the best and study what they do and be

41:26

able to replicate that? It's actually

41:28

there's a science for it. It's called

41:29

NLP. And one of the things they say is

41:32

whenever you're looking at somebody's

41:34

map, you have to understand that the map

41:36

is not the territory that it represents.

41:39

that if it was really the territory that

41:41

it represents, the map wouldn't be the

41:44

map. It would be the territory. There's

41:45

things that are missing and you have to

41:47

to understand that. And and and then the

41:50

last thing is

41:52

mental models. Uh

41:56

uh one example of them is paro

41:59

distributions,

42:01

right? The 8020 rule by the way. So one

42:04

of our best insights

42:06

came from applying the 8020 rules. I did

42:09

a a series uh it's on it's on YouTube.

42:13

You can watch it actually. It's called

42:14

idea ingredients. What makes great

42:17

ideas? And I listed 20 things. And my

42:20

business partner said, "Look, you have

42:21

20 things. If you run a 2080 rule to it,

42:26

right? 20% of those 20 things are going

42:29

to give you 80% of your results. So what

42:32

do you look for an idea that are the

42:34

four things 20% of 20 is four that are

42:37

the most powerful things in an idea and

42:40

that alone has multiplied the value of

42:43

our business right so just the 8020 rule

42:47

and applying that um uh in your life is

42:52

is extremely powerful you know so if you

42:54

make a list of 20 things to do say hey

42:58

what are the four things and give me 80%

43:00

of the results and only focus on these

43:02

things. If you look at a company, very

43:05

often a company u uh 20% of their

43:09

products give them 80% of the

43:11

profitability. Right? So those are all

43:13

things that you can do to to study. All

43:15

right. Art of war principles very

43:18

important to study those. Uh there's a

43:20

great the the principles. So if we look

43:23

at a company, we always look at the

43:25

company through art of war principles.

43:26

We say okay how does the this company

43:30

attack its competitor's strategy

43:34

right the reverse of that how does a

43:36

company protect and amplify their

43:38

strategy

43:40

right how does a company disrupt the

43:43

alliances

43:45

of the competitor so for example uh uh

43:50

we love companies that go and all right

43:53

they have a great sales guy let's try to

43:55

hire

43:57

Oh, really? The their their CFO just

44:00

quit. He was really good, but he quit

44:01

for political reasons. Okay, let's hire

44:03

him. Disrupt the company's alliances.

44:06

You see, the hidden part about business

44:10

is the predatory behavior of businesses

44:13

on top of each other. They're never

44:15

going to put that in a 10K,

44:17

right? So, it's very the the and it

44:20

happens, by the way. They just never

44:21

talk about it unless it's like inside

44:23

baseball stuff. Third principle, attack

44:26

him where he is weak. Use fourth

44:28

principle, use the environment against

44:30

your enemy. And a fifth principle,

44:32

fornowledge and spying. You know,

44:34

corporate spying, corporate

44:36

intelligence, in my opinion is as big as

44:41

countries spying on other countries. In

44:44

fact, there's one country where shall

44:46

rename Nameless, but their entire spying

44:50

apparadice is on literally spying on

44:53

American companies and stealing the best

44:55

secrets. By the way, um but anyways,

44:58

okay, another principle, have time on

45:01

your side when you're investing.

45:05

Do you have time as an ally that the

45:09

more every day goes by, the value of the

45:11

business increases?

45:14

have time on your side could also mean

45:16

do you have timing

45:19

right so when we're investing I always

45:21

say to myself hey if I hold this thing

45:24

one week one month does the business get

45:27

better

45:29

as the passage of time happens do I have

45:32

an advantage

45:35

very important I know it sounds like to

45:37

you guys what the [ __ ] is talking about

45:40

but trust me dig into it one from Peter.

45:44

Where there's mystery, there is margin.

45:48

Very important.

45:50

When there's mystery around a company,

45:54

often there's very high margins at the

45:56

company. When there's mystery around a

45:59

way of doing things, there's margin,

46:02

there's profitability.

46:05

Another one, it's one of our favorites.

46:06

I learned it from

46:09

uh

46:12

actually a bunch of investors that don't

46:13

like to be named. It's better to observe

46:16

than to predict. Everybody wants to

46:18

predict in the investment business, but

46:21

very few people actually observe.

46:24

You cannot predict that a moat of a

46:27

business is expanding.

46:30

Maybe if you're good at it, but you can

46:32

observe, wait a second, their mode just

46:36

got better. They made this acquisition.

46:38

This is going to increase their

46:39

bargaining leverage. Like for example,

46:42

um

46:44

am I allowed to talk? No, we can't talk

46:46

about current holdings. But but there's

46:48

a company

46:51

they are

46:53

they weren't vertically integrated

46:55

before. they were just allowed to buy

46:58

another company that allows them to

47:00

vertically integrate

47:02

and it's giving them such a competitive

47:04

advantage that we believe they're going

47:05

to go from 6% market share to 30% market

47:09

share in the next 5 years. And if that

47:11

happens,

47:14

we think it's going to multiply the

47:17

value of the business and we're already

47:19

observing

47:21

that it's doing so. And in fact, one of

47:24

the uh uh our senators came out with a

47:28

letter talking about how this company is

47:32

going to be a dominant player and the

47:34

FTC should not allow it the deal to go

47:37

through. And the letter reads like a

47:40

bull case

47:42

on the company. It's that good. In fact,

47:44

we took that letter and attached it to

47:46

our memo. So, we're like, that's how

47:48

good this thing is if it's allowed to go

47:49

through. Um, and again, can you observe?

47:53

We predicted that it's going to happen.

47:56

We're already observing that it's

47:58

happening, right? Invert, always invert.

48:02

If you say, "Hey, Elise, how do I

48:05

succeed at this?" I'm going to invert

48:07

that question and have you ask, "Hey,

48:09

how do I fail at it?" You got to know

48:12

how to fail at something before you win.

48:16

Inversion. If you say, "Hey, how does

48:18

this company

48:20

uh uh take market share?" I would say,

48:24

"Well, how does this company lose market

48:26

share?" First, you know, you want to

48:27

invert things. And this, you know,

48:29

Charlie Munger, this was one of his

48:31

favorite principles.

48:33

Double down on what is working.

48:35

Something is working for you, do more of

48:37

it. The nine emotions.

48:39

Uh we love businesses or even in our

48:42

writing and our content creation, we put

48:45

in the nine emotions. Vanity, greed,

48:47

lust, fear, relief, addiction,

48:48

nostalgia, envy, novelty, right? Think

48:51

about Instagram. Well, I mean, what is

48:53

this? An iPhone.

48:57

Vanity, greed, lust, fear, relief,

49:00

addiction, nostalgia, envy, novelty,

49:03

Instagram.

49:04

Vanity, greed, lust, Google, vanity.

49:09

It's literally all the nine emotions,

49:11

right? Whenever you invest in a

49:13

business,

49:16

does the business have the nine emotions

49:19

embedded in it? Right? Uh uh I mean,

49:23

excuse me, let let me rephrase that.

49:25

Does the relationship between a customer

49:29

and a business is it based on the nine

49:32

emotions?

49:33

Like for example, what's an airline?

49:37

I mean, relief maybe. None of these. And

49:40

that's why airlines are terrible [ __ ]

49:42

businesses. Terrible.

49:46

You know, the only thing that makes

49:47

money from them is literally the points

49:50

on the airline. And that's not the

49:52

airline. That's a credit card company

49:54

that they're mixed with that you get

49:55

these points. And that's literally greed

49:58

really, right? Airlines are terrible

50:01

businesses. There's, you know, the the

50:04

there's no emotion. It's literally your

50:06

your relief that you get off of it. uh

50:08

unless you're fine private by the way uh

50:12

uh uh where you come at it and you're

50:15

like yeah this is great um but anyways

50:18

okay last principle the question is the

50:20

answer uh whenever somebody's wants an

50:23

answer I'm like focus on the question

50:26

much more important it's a Buddhist

50:27

apherism but it's very true

50:30

I want you guys we're hitting up on time

50:32

so I'm going to speed up I want you guys

50:34

to learn stress and recovery activities

50:37

ities.

50:39

Part of analog thinking

50:42

is happens mostly when you're in

50:44

recovery, not when you're in stress,

50:47

right? It's when so stress activity is

50:51

like brain exercises, endurance

50:53

activity, physical exercises, you're

50:55

stressing yourself. And people that stay

50:58

in stress too long, that's when mental

51:01

health problems get triggered, anxiety,

51:03

and all that stuff. Whereas if you're

51:07

actually recovering, it allows your

51:10

subconscious and your conscious to go

51:12

and learn the lessons and extract on

51:14

them. So recovery activities like

51:17

acupuncture,

51:18

massage, uh by the way, if you're a risk

51:21

taker,

51:23

it's very important that when you wake

51:25

up, you don't do anything that is even

51:29

more stressful. So a lot of people first

51:31

thing they wake up they go work out or

51:34

they do something like get on their

51:35

phone and it's something that

51:37

immediately stresses you. It's very

51:40

important when you sleep you wake up you

51:42

do something that deepens the recovery

51:45

of you having slept. And the other

51:48

reason why you want to do that is as a

51:50

risk taker when you're an analyst or PM

51:53

while you're sleeping your subconscious

51:55

goes to work on all of the positions you

51:57

have on all the risks you have on. So

51:59

you wake up kind of stressed,

52:02

right? And that stress over long periods

52:05

of time not only stress your days but

52:08

stress your years. And that's what

52:10

causes um burnout. It's what causes uh

52:15

um people leaving our business. You see,

52:18

there's a very high attrition rate in

52:20

our business. You know, there's a lot of

52:22

guys, we remember the guys that have

52:24

made it, but we don't remember the guys

52:26

that have failed and have left the

52:27

business, right? It's like the guys that

52:30

tell me, "You got to concentrate your

52:31

book." And you say, "Why do you

52:33

concentrate?" And the answer always

52:34

comes to, "Well, Charlie and Warren

52:36

survived the 70s when they char I think

52:40

Charlie was down 70%. Warren was down

52:43

60%."

52:45

But I'm like, "That's Charlie and

52:47

Warren. Tell me about the hundred other

52:49

guys that concentrated and we don't hear

52:51

about those. Don't don't cite to me the

52:54

survivorship bias. Right? So, so again

52:58

going back one of the best things you

53:00

can do as a risk taker when you wake up

53:03

get a massage.

53:06

Seriously, twice a week if you have

53:08

money. Twice a week I have a masseuse

53:10

come 6:30 in the morning, 90 minutes

53:13

massage.

53:16

It distresses you and gives you a lot of

53:19

energy throughout the day. If you don't

53:22

have that, get a Rumble roller. It's a

53:24

It's a It's a foam roller with nubs on

53:27

it. It looks like a torture rack. Uh uh

53:30

roll your entire body. It distresses

53:32

you. Get a theraun. A theraun. You can

53:36

get them. They're they're decently

53:37

expensive, but they're worth it. And you

53:39

literally use a vibration all over your

53:42

body. It distresses you. Same with a

53:44

zillion. It's a massage pod that

53:46

replicates jatsu shots massages and it's

53:50

been one of the best gifts. You lie on

53:51

it and it massages out of you. Now, it's

53:55

unbelievable how often you're doing a

53:57

recovery activity and you untense

54:01

and then that's when an insight

54:04

that you've been trying to generate on a

54:06

business or a stock, a stock or an idea

54:09

comes to you. So, recovery is very

54:12

powerful because while you're tense, you

54:14

won't have an insight. It's a second you

54:16

get rid of the tension that your

54:17

subconscious is like, "By the way, you

54:19

know that problem you've been trying to

54:20

figure out? Here's a solution."

54:23

sauna.

54:25

Very important to do sauna. Okay. The

54:28

data now is is you can't argue with

54:31

anymore. All cause mortality drops uh

54:35

stress recovery

54:38

uh uh uh uh improvement. Um but also as

54:43

we talk about next, it's a great way to

54:45

deal with your hyper stimulants. Okay.

54:47

Cold therapy. Now, I'm not a big fan of

54:50

waking up and then dudes are like

54:52

dunking in ice and literally causing all

54:54

sorts of health problems to themselves.

54:56

But once a week,

54:58

uh, you do cold therapy after you've

55:01

warmed up, after after a workout, and

55:04

you dip yourself into the ice, stay as

55:06

long as you can, come back. It's very

55:08

it's it's it's it is very powerful, but

55:12

don't do it more than once a week

55:15

because it takes about three to four

55:16

days from your body to recover from it.

55:18

If you do it every day, you're just

55:20

stressing your body out and it's

55:22

actually causing harm. You you need

55:25

recovery. It's like you do a very

55:27

powerful workout. If you do that every

55:28

day, you're going to break down. But if

55:31

you wait a couple days, you do recovery

55:32

in between, it's very powerful. Same for

55:34

when you're stressing your brain. By the

55:36

way, hot cold showers and naps. I'm a

55:40

professional nap taker. I went through a

55:42

period last year where without realizing

55:45

I stopped taking naps and I all sorts of

55:48

health problems started popping up every

55:50

day, 20 minutes to an hour, put your

55:53

head down, sleep, just rest your head.

55:56

Very, very powerful.

56:00

Uh, okay.

56:03

How to deal with hyper stimulants.

56:05

This is I think is one of the causes. Uh

56:08

guys, excuse me one second.

56:26

Hyper stimulants are a big problem in

56:28

modern society. sugar, porn, social

56:32

media, nicotine, caffeine, aderal,

56:34

cannabis, recreational drugs. These are

56:37

things that are extremely extremely

56:40

powerful. Uh, and mess with your brain

56:43

in all sorts of ways. Um, by the way,

56:47

I'm not talking a big game. I'm as

56:50

addicted to some of these things as as

56:53

everybody is. I'm pretty sure I'm

56:54

addicted to Instagram uh uh in a in a uh

57:02

uh in a big way and I have to literally

57:04

do digital detox uh all the time. Uh I'm

57:08

addicted to caffeine.

57:10

Uh you know, I go on and off caffeine.

57:14

Uh I'm back on it right now and it's

57:17

like I go to this restaurant. It's owned

57:19

by a friend of mine and the corporate

57:21

chef happens to be a coffee Jedi.

57:26

Okay. Like you you you like have one sip

57:29

and you get taken to this dreamland. I

57:33

love coffee, okay? But I'm an addict. I

57:36

have to get off of it every once in a

57:37

while because hyper stimulants, they

57:40

make your highs higher

57:43

and they make your lows lower.

57:46

So in our business, you're constantly

57:48

dealt with ass kickings.

57:51

You know, you own a stock is down 50%.

57:54

When you're on hyper stimulus, you don't

57:56

handle it as well. It's very important

57:59

to to know how to wean yourself off of

58:02

it. One of the most powerful hyper

58:04

stimulants today happens to be social

58:07

media AI and and and just digital

58:11

avalanche. You have to learn how to deal

58:14

with that. Learn how to detox from it.

58:16

Hydration and sauna is very powerful way

58:19

of weaning off of hyper stimulants. If I

58:22

start wanting to get off of caffeine and

58:24

want to get the effects of caffeine away

58:26

from me, I try to do 20 25 minutes of

58:29

sauna every day for three four days.

58:32

Right? One of the best rehabs uh in the

58:35

country.

58:37

Uh what they do is for to people get

58:40

people off of drugs is massive sauna

58:43

sessions. Hours and hours per week in

58:46

sauna because you literally sweat out

58:48

the gunk and the the residues of the

58:51

hyper stimulants. Very important. Okay.

58:54

Cycle on and off of it. I have one of my

58:56

mentees right now that secretly has been

58:59

taking Adderall without us uh knowing

59:02

and it's starting to have an impact on

59:03

him. Okay, very important to know how to

59:06

weed yourself off of these things.

59:10

Digital detox. This is obvious. Uh one

59:14

thing I like doing it Friday to to

59:16

Saturday for 24 hours. No phone, no

59:19

computer. It it's it's very restful. Uh,

59:23

I do physical exercise, spend time with

59:25

my family, play board games with my son.

59:28

I review my last week, I plan my next

59:30

week. It's a very powerful 24 hours.

59:34

One, this is probably

59:37

one of the most powerful spiritual

59:39

practices I can recommend to you because

59:42

this trains every single analytical

59:46

skill without you knowing that it's

59:47

being trained,

59:49

including visualization. So what yoga

59:52

nidra is is you lie down as comfortable

59:56

as possible. You don't move and you

59:58

listen to a script of an individual

60:02

bringing you through visualization

60:04

exercises where you visualize body parts

60:06

that you have

60:08

and you go through all of them. And in

60:11

doing so it brings you to a state of

60:14

relaxation that is between being awake

60:18

and sleeping. You're not sleeping.

60:23

You're not awake, but you're in the in

60:26

between. And that in between happens to

60:29

be where insight generation comes, where

60:32

you can visualize,

60:35

where you can recall past patterns,

60:37

where you can read between the lines,

60:39

and when you can make leaps of judgment.

60:43

25, 30 minutes. You should do it once or

60:46

twice a week. Also, people that do it

60:50

stronger immune systems,

60:52

recover from all sorts of mental health

60:55

issues. It's extremely powerful as a

60:59

spiritual practice. Now, by the way, you

61:02

should be doing other spiritual

61:04

practices. Prayer very powerful.

61:09

I don't recommend meditation.

61:12

Everybody's like, "You got to meditate,

61:14

bro." No. Be very very careful with

61:18

meditation. Meditation is too powerful

61:21

for people to do it when they don't know

61:23

what the hell they're doing. Especially

61:26

if you've had childhood trauma.

61:30

So a lot of guys that meditate have bad

61:32

trips. And the reason why they have bad

61:34

trips is while you're meditating, if you

61:36

have childhood trauma you haven't dealt

61:38

with and you haven't thought about it

61:40

for a while, the childhood trauma comes

61:43

back and it's like surprise [ __ ] and

61:45

then boom, you get hit with it and you

61:47

don't know how to deal with it. So, a

61:49

lot of these meditation coach, by the

61:50

way, it's worked for them. They teach

61:53

you how to meditate, but then they've

61:55

never dealt with somebody that's had a

61:57

bad meditation experience and they don't

61:59

know what to do. And when you go to

62:02

meditation retreats, there's a reason

62:04

why sometimes in the halls there are

62:06

people that are crying. They literally

62:08

have breakdowns. And the reason why is

62:11

whatever's wrong with you tends to pop

62:13

up in the meditation. I happen to be

62:16

lucky that I don't have any of these

62:18

issues, but I know people have had

62:21

meditation is very dangerous. If you do

62:23

it, you got to do with somebody that

62:25

knows what the hell they're doing,

62:27

right? Don't just do it. And then, but

62:29

one of the problems also lack of

62:31

vulnerability is people uh meditate,

62:34

they have problems, they never talk

62:35

about because they don't want to make

62:36

seem like I have a problem. No. be very

62:40

careful with meditation.

62:43

Uh Josh's MIQ process. So Wadekin has a

62:46

process. It's an analog process that I

62:48

love. If there's a So for example, one

62:52

question we're struggling with today is

62:54

how do I become better at position

62:56

sizing?

62:59

So I brainstorm on that. Right? But what

63:02

he recommends you do is you brainstorm

63:05

before a break. So you're about to work

63:07

out. brainstorm on the question and

63:11

while you're working out, forget it. And

63:14

then afterwards, take your journal out

63:16

and then brainstorm on the question

63:17

again. And he says that, and he's right,

63:20

there's actually a great book on this

63:22

called the breakout principle. I have it

63:23

somewhere where

63:26

while you're working out, your

63:27

subconscious goes to work on the

63:29

question you were trying to answer. Very

63:32

powerful and it's true. uh uh and that

63:36

process of journaling, taking a break,

63:39

answering the question, getting into the

63:41

habit of that, weights says that that's

63:44

how you generate insights. Um and he's

63:47

right. He's right. The I I don't do it

63:50

as religiously as I used to. Uh, but I

63:53

do do it every once in a while when I'm

63:54

struggling with stuff like how to be a

63:57

better PM, position sizing, trading

63:59

acumen, exposure management, uh, and

64:03

idea selection. Um, very powerful

64:06

process.

64:08

Board games and card games, use them as

64:11

personal laboratories. So, my personal

64:14

lab has always been back and poker, but

64:16

Jin and chess, go, bridge, other board

64:19

games. We like Settlers of Katan. Uh

64:22

these are Monopoly. These are all games

64:25

that have a lot of business lessons in

64:26

them. If I learn a principle like when I

64:30

was learning uh the art of war uh by

64:33

Sunsu as as principles, I used them

64:38

those principles in my back and in my

64:40

poker and it improved both my back and

64:43

in my poker. Right. So board games are a

64:46

great place to go test stuff out, test

64:49

out a mental model, test out a

64:51

principle, test out a book, and then see

64:54

if it adds value to your investing. And

64:56

the reason why you need a personal lab

64:58

like Tony Stark, he has Jarvis in his

65:00

personal lab is in your lab, the risks

65:03

are very small, but if you learn

65:06

something that gives you high reward,

65:07

you can then apply it to your investing.

65:09

Right? The first time I learned the

65:12

concept of Moes for example from from

65:15

Warren, I applied it to back gam and it

65:17

was like literally staring me in the

65:19

face like oh the concept of Moes is all

65:22

over back which is interesting

65:26

reading setup.

65:28

Don't just read

65:31

take a book uh

65:35

you know and just start reading. Set it

65:39

up for success. Especially if you're a

65:42

younger person and you have the

65:43

attention span of a nap. If you got to

65:46

be alone to read, be alone.

65:48

[clears throat] If you get energy from

65:49

being surrounded by people, be in an

65:51

office, read and or a cafe.

65:55

Put your phone away.

65:57

Turn it off if you have to. Put it on.

66:00

Do not disturb. You don't need the

66:01

distractions. Use earplugs. Okay? Don't

66:05

use electronic

66:07

uh noise cancelling first. It's too

66:09

expensive. An earplug, you have to

66:11

charge it. Earplugs, you put it in, it

66:13

blocks all the sound out. Um I have the

66:16

attention span of a nap myself, by the

66:18

way. So I have to put earplugs on. Use

66:21

pomodoros.

66:23

Uh I I take a timer, put it for 90

66:25

minutes, and I know that for 90 minutes,

66:28

it gives me the freedom to just read. I

66:30

can focus for 90 minutes, right?

66:34

Start reading. It takes you 15 minutes

66:36

to concentrate. If you get distracted,

66:39

it's okay. Recognize a distraction like

66:41

a meditation. Go back to to what you

66:45

were reading. Even if it was a really

66:47

good idea, let it go. It's okay.

66:51

Do not highlight while you read. If a

66:53

passage is interesting, put a check

66:55

mark. Problem. The highlight is it takes

66:57

time, right? And then also all you're

67:00

doing is mentally training. I have to

67:03

keep this. You're training your

67:04

endowment effect bias, your your loss

67:07

aversion. I don't want to lose this. And

67:09

odds are you're going to highlight it.

67:11

You're never going to review it anyways,

67:13

right? But make a check mark on it.

67:15

Review it afterwards. And at the end of

67:17

the reading session, write down and the

67:19

book if you like what you learned. And

67:21

this will train your recall. Very

67:22

powerful.

67:25

For people that have real attention

67:27

spans while you're reading on Kindle,

67:29

listen to the audible.

67:32

Hey, that's actually been a very

67:33

successful sometimes if my mind is too

67:35

frayed, I'll do that. I'm reading a

67:37

book, listen to it. So, you're both

67:38

reading and listening. Uh, it's helper

67:40

retention. It's a modern digital tool to

67:44

solve the analog problem

67:47

learning projects. Now, I recommend you

67:49

do digital deep dives on all of these

67:52

different topics. These are the ones

67:53

that I've spoken uh that that I've

67:55

chosen. Phil Stuts, uh, this guy in the

67:58

middle here, who in my opinion is one of

68:00

the wisest human beings that's ever

68:02

lived. Peter Theel, uh, you should watch

68:05

all of all of Peter's interviews. You

68:07

should read all the essays he's written.

68:09

You should read the books on him. Uh, he

68:12

has mental models that are very, very

68:15

powerful and can help both your private

68:17

investing, your public investing. Rory

68:19

Sullivan, who in my opinion, if you want

68:22

to learn how to deal in the age of AI,

68:25

you have to read Rory's mental models.

68:28

And then in my opinion, the greatest

68:30

competitor that's ever lived, uh, Tom

68:32

Brady. Uh, I happen to be a Brady fanboy

68:36

and I've learned more from him than

68:39

probably any investor I've ever studied.

68:43

Analog. Learn public speaking.

68:47

learn selling.

68:49

Uh we just did a study

68:53

um wealthy families

68:57

that

68:58

keep their wealth across generations.

69:03

But in studying that we found a lot of

69:05

wealthy families that have lost their

69:07

wealth across generation.

69:09

And what did the wealthy families that

69:12

kept their wealth have in common? Is

69:14

that though the founder knew how to

69:16

sell, the second generation,

69:20

often never learn to sell because they

69:22

never needed to or even worse look down

69:25

upon it.

69:27

And when you stop selling,

69:30

you stop getting wealthy.

69:33

Wealthy people tend to be great

69:36

salesmen. We've been taught as society

69:39

to look down on sales. No, take it very

69:43

seriously. Learn how to do it. And then

69:44

last, writing. Learn how to write. Very

69:47

powerful

69:49

mental exercises from the CIA. So these

69:52

are the two books given at the CIA to

69:54

train analysts. There are others.

69:57

You can literally buy them or find them.

69:59

It's actually unbelievable to me that

70:00

they publish this [ __ ] but they do.

70:02

Maybe it's because they publish the old

70:05

stuff and the new stuff.

70:07

uh is even better. But this old stuff is

70:09

pretty good. There's some exercises in

70:11

there like timeline analysis. You have

70:13

to learn how to do it. And then AC,

70:16

analysis of competing hypothesis. Very

70:19

powerful way to lower your biases and

70:21

solve the mental problems that you have.

70:23

Okay,

70:25

we're coming up to the end.

70:27

Here's the advice. I always give this

70:29

advice. I gave this advice in your the

70:31

last pod that we did together, Ethan.

70:33

Mentor and teach. This is an analog

70:36

process. Use coaches. You don't know how

70:39

to do something, find a coach. Pay him

70:41

if you have to. If you can't afford it,

70:44

find a mentor. Do stuff for him so that

70:46

he teaches you the stuff for free.

70:49

Watch out and prepare for your 40s and

70:51

your 50s. Midlife crisis dynamics are

70:55

real.

70:56

I've warned you. You guys are not

70:58

dealing with this stuff now, but it's

71:00

coming. And when you're dealing with it,

71:02

remember told you, right?

71:05

build leverage into your personal and

71:07

business life. Uh I talk about this a

71:10

lot. Capital leverage, code leverage,

71:12

content, community, contractual

71:14

structural leverage, conditional

71:15

leverage. I have a YouTube on that. Go

71:17

watch it. Um very powerful successful

71:21

people or even you know people that have

71:24

not even like accomplished great

71:26

success, but you'll see leverage in

71:28

their lives like oh he did this. It it

71:31

was a form of leverage. For example,

71:34

creating content, what Ethan and I are

71:36

doing now, is a form of leverage. It's

71:39

going to help us accomplish our goals,

71:41

right?

71:43

Actually, let me talk about this for a

71:45

second. I have three goals

71:47

for my business. I want really smart,

71:52

wealthy people to invest in my business.

71:56

I want a very smart analyst or PM at

72:01

another shop to be like, hey, we need to

72:03

call El leaks and share our best ideas

72:06

with him.

72:08

Third, I want a very smart person to

72:12

say, I want to work for this guy.

72:15

When you create content, at least when

72:17

we create it, it helps us accomplish all

72:19

three of these goals.

72:22

That's leverage. You create it once and

72:24

it's out there working for you forever.

72:27

Very powerful. Have a spiritual

72:29

practice. Have thought partners and

72:32

confidants. There are people you need to

72:34

share it with. There's a lack of

72:36

vulnerability in our culture right now.

72:39

You know, there there's this uh meme

72:41

going around where somebody is is like

72:44

guys don't talk about their feelings.

72:46

They don't talk about their problems.

72:47

Like are people interested? you know,

72:49

it's like no one, you know, we we have a

72:52

a I have a group of friends. We're like

72:54

a male support group because we share

72:57

this stuff with each other and and

73:00

people when they hear like, "Wow, like

73:02

can I join?" And part of the reason like

73:04

we're all fairly healthy people is like

73:06

we share this stuff. You need thought

73:09

partners. You need confidants. And by

73:11

the way, one of my problems with

73:12

therapy, even though I do think it

73:14

serves a purpose, is that you have a

73:15

conflict of interest, right? the longer

73:18

you go, the more the person gets paid.

73:21

So there's almost not a solute uh uh uh

73:24

a way for you to solve your issues. And

73:27

also great therapy

73:30

I don't think changes you at the therapy

73:31

level. I actually think it changes at

73:33

the spiritual level. So that's why Phil

73:36

Stuts, which is uh this guy teaches you,

73:40

the the bald guy here. Um read all his

73:43

books, okay? Read uh the tools. Read

73:47

Coming Alive. Read uh read everything.

73:50

Watch the documentary that Jonah Hill

73:52

did with him. Very important. Okay. And

73:55

then know how to build the right

73:57

rituals. So I talk about this a lot

74:00

where every day I wake up and I did it

74:03

this morning even. I read three letters

74:06

from other hedge funds or investment

74:08

firms that are public.

74:10

I go through the 13F of a manager that I

74:13

respect and I go through the companies

74:17

and I read an idea memo every day. It

74:20

takes me about 90 minutes. Okay, you do

74:22

that every day and then it's an analog

74:25

process and it feeds you. Anyways,

74:28

that's it. There's more I could say, but

74:31

I had to fit it in an hour and 20

74:34

minutes. Let me know. Do you have any

74:36

questions? We can start with you, Ethan.

74:39

Yeah, thank you so much. Um,

74:44

you talked about the parto principle and

74:48

I want to do something similar for this

74:50

cuz there's a lot of ideas you said. Um,

74:52

if there's one thing that's what is the

74:55

single most important thing out of

74:56

everything you've mentioned and how

74:59

should a young person implement it

75:01

within their own life? Um, you know, as

75:03

early as now?

75:05

>> Read. Okay. Take a book

75:09

and you can only do this with

75:10

non-fiction.

75:12

Um,

75:13

and do do inspectional reading.

75:17

Have we talked about this?

75:19

>> I don't think so.

75:20

>> Okay. So, inspectional reading is

75:22

there's a great book. It's called How to

75:25

Read a Book. And chapter 4 on

75:28

inspectional reading gives you a process

75:32

that you should do before reading every

75:34

nonfiction book.

75:37

And what you do is this. Take the book

75:41

and you go to the table of contents

75:46

and you read it.

75:49

Just read it. Then you go to the back of

75:52

the book

75:54

and read the index.

75:58

It literally says page 365, keys to

76:01

success,

76:03

right? and you you read it and you write

76:05

down the things that interest you and

76:08

the table of contents and sorry and the

76:10

index. Then you go back to the front and

76:14

you read the introduction. In this case,

76:17

the preface and the prologue. It's like

76:20

five, six pages.

76:22

Then you go to the back of the book and

76:25

you read the last chapter,

76:28

the conclusion,

76:30

right? Then you go back to the first

76:33

chapter and read the first and last page

76:38

of the chapter.

76:40

Then do it for every chapter. Oh, I

76:42

forgot. Um, so after you read the table

76:47

of contents, after you read the index,

76:50

go to the middle

76:52

where there's pictures

76:56

and look at and study all the pictures.

76:58

And the reason why you have to do that

76:59

is when you read something

77:02

uh we remember visuals 99.9% of the time

77:06

whereas we remember words much much less

77:09

percentage. But when you know a picture

77:11

it allows you to put the words onto the

77:13

picture and your memory actually goes

77:15

up.

77:16

And then after you've read the first and

77:18

last page of every chapter,

77:21

if there are uh let's say graphs, go

77:25

back and study all the graphs.

77:28

And what you'll see is that by having

77:31

done that,

77:33

you'll get the 20% of the book that

77:36

gives you 80% of the value.

77:38

And then you can determine, do I really

77:40

need to read this [ __ ]

77:43

If it's a good book, odds are you will,

77:47

right? Very, very powerful

77:50

analog process to do. I personally do

77:54

it. I try to do it three, four times a

77:57

week. Uh I try to read a book a week.

78:00

More often it's like a book every two

78:02

weeks. Uh my son and I have a a

78:05

nighttime ritual where we read together,

78:08

you know. So, he's reading right now um

78:11

this graphic novel series, which

78:13

actually looks really cool. I'm reading

78:15

one of Phil Stutz's books uh lessons for

78:19

daily living, and it's literally wisdom

78:21

after wisdom after wisdom. Uh but

78:24

generally, you get a book, I just got

78:26

given one actually, and you want to read

78:29

it inspectionally. Like for example,

78:31

this book,

78:33

um I'm writing about it. only the

78:36

paranoid survive. There are key concepts

78:39

for surviving in the age of AI and this

78:42

book you know Ank wrote this in the 80s

78:44

for god's sakes you know but yet this is

78:47

this is going to matter a lot in this

78:50

age by the way this book is actually not

78:52

about paranoia everybody's that hasn't

78:55

read it what they talk about it's like

78:56

it's about being paranoid no it's about

78:59

strategic inflection points

79:02

yes you should be reading about

79:04

strategic inflection points you know so

79:07

So I would say that that would be the

79:09

most important of the things. But

79:11

listen, there's never only one thing.

79:14

Okay?

79:16

Practice some of the things that I

79:17

talked to you and try to incorporate

79:19

them in your life. Uh somehow uh it's

79:21

part of the the the analog training. Uh

79:25

but reading reading is going to be the

79:28

the the most powerful thing I recommend

79:30

you do. But hold on. Once you've read a

79:32

book

79:34

and you liked it, what should you do?

79:38

Book reading helps you create content.

79:42

Take your notes, share with your

79:43

friends.

79:45

Uh, call friends to discuss the book

79:47

that have read it. If you love the

79:50

writer, cold email the writer. Say,

79:54

"Here's what I liked about the book. Can

79:56

I ask you some questions about the

79:57

book?" If you're a student, invite the

80:00

writer to come speak to you and your

80:02

classmates. You know, this is a piece of

80:04

leverage.

80:06

Know how to leverage books. A book, a $5

80:10

book can make you millions of dollars.

80:13

It's insane to me that people will

80:15

[ __ ] It's insane. Insane.

80:18

But thank God. You know why? Because I'm

80:21

going to compete with them and we're

80:24

going to crush them because they don't

80:26

read. Thank God. And by the way, so

80:30

you know, imagine the the the

80:32

generational uh battle,

80:36

right? Where, excuse me,

80:41

you know, the young people, you guys are

80:42

about to inherit money.

80:46

You're not going to know what to do with

80:47

the money. In fact, pe the some of the

80:49

the financial businesses are realizing

80:52

that education, financial education is

80:55

paramount today. Why? Because we have

80:58

some of the youngest, most financially

81:01

literate people that we've ever seen.

81:04

And in that predator prey dynamic

81:06

between Gen X and the Zoomers, who do

81:10

you think is going to win?

81:13

You know, if I were you, I would set up

81:15

for you to be the Predator. the way we

81:17

see it now. Gen X is the predator,

81:22

right? So, very important. Read, please.

81:25

And by the way, why am I telling you to

81:28

read

81:30

if competitively it's bad for me? Well,

81:33

a lot of the I actually believe that the

81:36

market isn't just a zero sum game. I

81:39

actually believe it's both. It's a zero

81:41

sum game and a positive sum game, too.

81:43

If I teach a lot of people how to make

81:45

money, somehow it's going to come back

81:47

to me and help me make money, you know,

81:51

already, you know, Ethan, the last

81:53

podcast, it's kind of crazy how good a

81:55

following you have, the young people

81:57

that have come to me and given me ideas,

81:59

given me ways of doing things, you know,

82:01

it's it's very it's it's very powerful,

82:04

right? So, read.

82:06

It's a great book, by the way, if you

82:09

haven't read it. I used to be obsessed

82:11

uh by this guy. It's uh Tycoon, the life

82:14

of Sir James Goldmith. Uh I used to play

82:17

back gammon at a club in Paris in the

82:20

90s. Um

82:22

and Sir James was a member. He was the

82:24

first guy to ever look at me and be

82:25

like, hey, you should be in investing.

82:27

Uh and I was like, why? Uh but uh he had

82:33

a a business partner called Roland

82:34

Franklin. And Roland was the other guy

82:36

was like, hey, you know, you should go

82:37

into stock trading or something with

82:39

stocks. Um, and I end up reading a lot

82:42

about Sir James. Very important. I even

82:44

read about his best friend, a guy called

82:46

John Aspenol. Uh, an amazing book.

82:49

Actually, I have his book right here.

82:52

Uh,

82:53

the passion of John Aspenel. I love

82:55

John.

82:57

Love John. But anyways,

Interactive Summary

The speaker, a hedge fund manager, identifies a critical problem in the modern workforce: younger generations lack "analog training," leading to a deficit in crucial analytical and creative thinking skills despite technical proficiency. He draws parallels to societal decline (Idiocracy) and warns against the over-reliance on digital tools, particularly AI, which he believes dulls essential analyst skills like reading between the lines and making leaps of judgment. The talk emphasizes that true insight and creativity emerge from operating under constraints and through the "friction" of deep thought, rather than the rapid consensus offered by AI. As solutions, the speaker advocates for a return to analog practices, including adopting powerful mental models and frameworks from diverse fields, studying Art of War principles for business, and prioritizing physical and mental recovery activities (like massage, sauna, and Yoga Nidra). He stresses the importance of digital detox, developing core skills like public speaking, selling, and writing, and recommends a structured approach to reading, specifically "inspectional reading," as the single most impactful practice for young people to gain a competitive edge and build personal leverage.

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