Gavin Newsom on California's 'Original Sin' | The Ezra Klein Show
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When I talk to people about you as a
leader of the Democratic party and
you're a leading voice, let's do call it
that for the moment.
>> For the moment, you what are you
suggesting? It won't be for long. I read
between the lines.
>> I'm not going to ask you seven different
ways of your run into 2028.
>> God bless you. Yeah.
>> Uh what I am going to ask you is this.
>> The big political issue of the day is
affordability.
>> Period.
>> California on US News and World Report
on Wallet Hub. Look at all these
different rankings. that ranks 50th on
affordability. These measures combine
housing costs and other measures of cost
of living.
>> Why? And what is the affordability
agenda that is credible coming from the
governor of California?
>> It's interesting. You wal also talks
about the happiest city index five of
the top 10.
>> Listen, man. I got tattoos and I got I
got redwoods tattooed on my arm. I
grieve every day I'm not in California.
You don't need to tell me it's a happy
>> in terms of taxes, which is interesting.
Wallet Hub comes out with their annual
survey on taxes saying we're slightly
above average on taxes. total mythology
there. It's the highest tax rate in the
country, but not the highest taxes
across the board when you add everything
in. That said, the affordability issue
in California is real. It's been the
original sin going back decades and
decades. Housing, period, full stop.
More things in more ways on more days
explains everything. It's the original
sin in California. Nimism. We haven't
gone out our own way. We haven't
produced enough housing stock. It's econ
101. Supply demand. It's not very
complicated. And when I started as
governor, there was no housing agenda.
There was no homeless agenda. Was not
the responsibility role of the state. It
was assigned to cities and counties and
regional COC's. And we changed all that.
In fact, I put a marker down within the
first few days when I got into office by
suing some cities in my state. put 47 on
notice, sued Huntington Beach, have and
have changed radically our approach to
accountability, creating a housing
accountability unit, looked at state
excess land sites, which has unlocked
over 5,000 units, began a process of
working with carrots and sticks to move
from nimism to a yimus mindset, which I
think we have demonstrated in meaningful
ways, and substantive ways. 110,000
housing units were completed last year.
completely
completely underwhelming
and so we have more work to do.
>> Why is it so hard? Because you've wanted
to do this. You put a 3.5 million
housing production goal.
>> It was that was the aspirational goal
and then the the legal goal 2.5 million
by 2030
under our re regional what we call the
arena goals and that is the established
legal fire. And by the way it's first
time we had goal setting that was this.
>> But you're not on track for either goal.
Not well no one is no one is but
>> across the country and that's by the way
that's a macro you got 1.2 2 million.
>> But other places are I mean look I I
spend because I'm a nerd a fair amount
of time looking at statistics on housing
starts in
>> Houston
having now a big downturn in terms of of
of costs because of some of the
overbuilding. But it's interesting.
>> Listen I think of California having a
big downturn in rents because over I I
[laughter] would I think that would be a
welcome change of problem.
>> I get it. But no genuinely serious. I've
seen how many bills you've passed. I've
covered a bunch of them.
What makes this so
>> Oh, you got 470 cities. You have 58
counties. I mentioned just the 101
jurisdictions in the cities and counties
just around the Bay Area. I haven't even
gotten to LA County. There's 88 cities,
88 leaders, COC's. I mean, everybody is
participatory in this and and and so
that's the challenge. It's that
labyrinth. By the way, uh these folks
aren't happy. League of Cities not
happy. Our county partners are not
happy. I mean, we are asserting
ourselves in ways that the state has
never asserted ourselves into local
planning decisions in order to break
down those barriers. And we've been
breaking down those barriers. What we
need is to break down the costs of
borrowing. It's the last piece that's
missing right now. I think we have
shifted the dialogue. We have won the
debate. We're on the other side of this.
And the proof point will be when we see
the borrowing costs red. So I think you
can think about what it takes to build
housing as having three buckets. One is
land use, zoning, permitting, etc. The
the sort of legal traps you have to run
in order to get started.
>> Y
>> then there's financing of construction,
interest rates, things like that.
>> And cost of construction, which is
related, but but has to do with the cost
of materials, labor, all the rest of it.
And as you say, I think in in a lot of
blue states, the fight on land use and
zoning is intellectually won. Whether or
not it's been totally policy one, that's
harder. But I do think that's one.
The financing
and the cost of construction, which by
the way, with Trump's tariffs and
deportations is getting worse on a bunch
of levels.
>> Tell me about those because I actually
think those are harder to talk about.
Well, and you didn't even bring up
productivity, which is down about 30%
since 1970 to 2020 in the housing
sector.
>> In the housing sector and and let's
establish situationally the tariffs
environment has impacted the cost of
goods. So, material supplies has gone
up. He's made it worse. Donald Trump,
the labor shortages are real. Today,
there was a Wall Street Journal article
showing 300 or 400 plus thousand uh uh
construction worker shortage and they
can't even get enough data center
workers uh to address some of the energy
needs for AI, etc. and that's been
exacerbated by the mass deportation
efforts etc. So those two things are
important but issue of productivity goes
to deeper questions now around can we
look at new styles of construction. Are
we going to promote at scale modular
housing prefab housing
>> is offsite you're building houses like
you would build a car and then
assembling them on site
>> and and it's also 3D printing which is
really interesting. And there's some
interesting companies in can uh in in
Texas. Uh they're actually working with
NASA uh in terms of some opportunities
there in terms of new materials. AI as
it relates to material space is also
interesting in relationship to this
conversation. So look, I do think we're
about to experience a completely
different shift on the productivity side
because of necessity, because of the
reality, because of the crisis of
affordability. And this holds a lot of
promise. It holds a lot of political
peril in the context of the politics
within labor and that has to be
accommodated and dealt with. By the way,
if there's a big preview for California,
my last year, it's in this space
legislatively to take it to the next
level. But we have to accommodate
because there's a lot of unions within
>> I want to slow down what you just said
here because I I know but just for
people who are not as into the modular
housing debate as you as you and I. So
right now building housing is you know
guys show up with hammers
>> same way they have been since the
beginning of time.
>> This is why productivity is down.
>> Yeah.
>> And modular which there's no place in
America that does a ton of off-site
manufactured housing. But in Sweden I
think more than 80% of single family
homes are now off-site modular or
off-site manufactured. [clears throat]
>> You can have modular build as many
places do uh in unionized factories,
>> right? So it doesn't have to be a
non-union industry, but it still means
fewer builders
>> and it means which unions and which
different skills, which trades
>> are part of that. And therein lies this
is the issue we have to address.
>> When you talk about address it, right? I
I think you're pointing towards there
being some
way that it can be addressed. But on
some level uh it will mean fewer people
building on site unless we increase
housing production so much.
>> Yeah, that's we have a volume
>> and that's the and the goal is to do
what we need to do which is the
abundance of gender actually addressing
the demand side of the equation. Uh, so
I think we'll be fine for a decade or
two as we work out of this morass, this
mess we've created, not just in
California, but all across this
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video discusses the affordability crisis in California, primarily driven by a severe lack of housing. The governor highlights his administration's efforts to tackle this issue by creating a housing accountability unit, utilizing state excess land, and suing cities that don't comply with housing production goals. California has set ambitious goals for housing completion, aiming for 2.5 million new units by 2030. However, progress is slower than desired, with no state currently on track to meet such targets. The discussion then shifts to the broader challenges in housing construction, including rising costs due to tariffs and labor shortages, and stagnant productivity. Innovative solutions like modular and 3D-printed housing are explored as ways to increase efficiency and address the crisis, though these also present challenges regarding labor unions and the need for new skill sets.
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