HomeVideos

Gavin Newsom on California's 'Original Sin' | The Ezra Klein Show

Now Playing

Gavin Newsom on California's 'Original Sin' | The Ezra Klein Show

Transcript

237 segments

0:00

When I talk to people about you as a

0:01

leader of the Democratic party and

0:02

you're a leading voice, let's do call it

0:04

that for the moment.

0:09

>> For the moment, you what are you

0:10

suggesting? It won't be for long. I read

0:13

between the lines.

0:14

>> I'm not going to ask you seven different

0:16

ways of your run into 2028.

0:17

>> God bless you. Yeah.

0:18

>> Uh what I am going to ask you is this.

0:21

>> The big political issue of the day is

0:22

affordability.

0:23

>> Period.

0:24

>> California on US News and World Report

0:26

on Wallet Hub. Look at all these

0:28

different rankings. that ranks 50th on

0:30

affordability. These measures combine

0:32

housing costs and other measures of cost

0:34

of living.

0:35

>> Why? And what is the affordability

0:38

agenda that is credible coming from the

0:40

governor of California?

0:41

>> It's interesting. You wal also talks

0:43

about the happiest city index five of

0:45

the top 10.

0:45

>> Listen, man. I got tattoos and I got I

0:47

got redwoods tattooed on my arm. I

0:49

grieve every day I'm not in California.

0:51

You don't need to tell me it's a happy

0:52

>> in terms of taxes, which is interesting.

0:54

Wallet Hub comes out with their annual

0:55

survey on taxes saying we're slightly

0:56

above average on taxes. total mythology

0:58

there. It's the highest tax rate in the

1:01

country, but not the highest taxes

1:03

across the board when you add everything

1:05

in. That said, the affordability issue

1:06

in California is real. It's been the

1:08

original sin going back decades and

1:10

decades. Housing, period, full stop.

1:12

More things in more ways on more days

1:14

explains everything. It's the original

1:15

sin in California. Nimism. We haven't

1:18

gone out our own way. We haven't

1:19

produced enough housing stock. It's econ

1:20

101. Supply demand. It's not very

1:23

complicated. And when I started as

1:25

governor, there was no housing agenda.

1:28

There was no homeless agenda. Was not

1:30

the responsibility role of the state. It

1:32

was assigned to cities and counties and

1:34

regional COC's. And we changed all that.

1:37

In fact, I put a marker down within the

1:39

first few days when I got into office by

1:41

suing some cities in my state. put 47 on

1:44

notice, sued Huntington Beach, have and

1:47

have changed radically our approach to

1:49

accountability, creating a housing

1:51

accountability unit, looked at state

1:52

excess land sites, which has unlocked

1:54

over 5,000 units, began a process of

1:57

working with carrots and sticks to move

1:59

from nimism to a yimus mindset, which I

2:02

think we have demonstrated in meaningful

2:04

ways, and substantive ways. 110,000

2:07

housing units were completed last year.

2:09

completely

2:11

completely underwhelming

2:14

and so we have more work to do.

2:16

>> Why is it so hard? Because you've wanted

2:17

to do this. You put a 3.5 million

2:20

housing production goal.

2:21

>> It was that was the aspirational goal

2:23

and then the the legal goal 2.5 million

2:26

by 2030

2:28

under our re regional what we call the

2:30

arena goals and that is the established

2:33

legal fire. And by the way it's first

2:34

time we had goal setting that was this.

2:36

>> But you're not on track for either goal.

2:37

Not well no one is no one is but

2:40

>> across the country and that's by the way

2:41

that's a macro you got 1.2 2 million.

2:43

>> But other places are I mean look I I

2:45

spend because I'm a nerd a fair amount

2:47

of time looking at statistics on housing

2:49

starts in

2:50

>> Houston

2:52

having now a big downturn in terms of of

2:54

of costs because of some of the

2:56

overbuilding. But it's interesting.

2:57

>> Listen I think of California having a

2:59

big downturn in rents because over I I

3:02

[laughter] would I think that would be a

3:05

welcome change of problem.

3:06

>> I get it. But no genuinely serious. I've

3:08

seen how many bills you've passed. I've

3:10

covered a bunch of them.

3:11

What makes this so

3:12

>> Oh, you got 470 cities. You have 58

3:14

counties. I mentioned just the 101

3:16

jurisdictions in the cities and counties

3:18

just around the Bay Area. I haven't even

3:20

gotten to LA County. There's 88 cities,

3:22

88 leaders, COC's. I mean, everybody is

3:25

participatory in this and and and so

3:28

that's the challenge. It's that

3:29

labyrinth. By the way, uh these folks

3:32

aren't happy. League of Cities not

3:34

happy. Our county partners are not

3:35

happy. I mean, we are asserting

3:37

ourselves in ways that the state has

3:38

never asserted ourselves into local

3:41

planning decisions in order to break

3:43

down those barriers. And we've been

3:45

breaking down those barriers. What we

3:46

need is to break down the costs of

3:49

borrowing. It's the last piece that's

3:51

missing right now. I think we have

3:52

shifted the dialogue. We have won the

3:55

debate. We're on the other side of this.

3:57

And the proof point will be when we see

3:59

the borrowing costs red. So I think you

4:01

can think about what it takes to build

4:03

housing as having three buckets. One is

4:07

land use, zoning, permitting, etc. The

4:10

the sort of legal traps you have to run

4:12

in order to get started.

4:13

>> Y

4:14

>> then there's financing of construction,

4:17

interest rates, things like that.

4:19

>> And cost of construction, which is

4:21

related, but but has to do with the cost

4:23

of materials, labor, all the rest of it.

4:26

And as you say, I think in in a lot of

4:29

blue states, the fight on land use and

4:31

zoning is intellectually won. Whether or

4:32

not it's been totally policy one, that's

4:34

harder. But I do think that's one.

4:37

The financing

4:39

and the cost of construction, which by

4:41

the way, with Trump's tariffs and

4:43

deportations is getting worse on a bunch

4:45

of levels.

4:46

>> Tell me about those because I actually

4:47

think those are harder to talk about.

4:50

Well, and you didn't even bring up

4:51

productivity, which is down about 30%

4:53

since 1970 to 2020 in the housing

4:55

sector.

4:56

>> In the housing sector and and let's

4:57

establish situationally the tariffs

4:59

environment has impacted the cost of

5:01

goods. So, material supplies has gone

5:03

up. He's made it worse. Donald Trump,

5:04

the labor shortages are real. Today,

5:06

there was a Wall Street Journal article

5:08

showing 300 or 400 plus thousand uh uh

5:11

construction worker shortage and they

5:13

can't even get enough data center

5:14

workers uh to address some of the energy

5:16

needs for AI, etc. and that's been

5:18

exacerbated by the mass deportation

5:20

efforts etc. So those two things are

5:22

important but issue of productivity goes

5:25

to deeper questions now around can we

5:28

look at new styles of construction. Are

5:30

we going to promote at scale modular

5:34

housing prefab housing

5:35

>> is offsite you're building houses like

5:38

you would build a car and then

5:39

assembling them on site

5:40

>> and and it's also 3D printing which is

5:42

really interesting. And there's some

5:43

interesting companies in can uh in in

5:45

Texas. Uh they're actually working with

5:47

NASA uh in terms of some opportunities

5:49

there in terms of new materials. AI as

5:52

it relates to material space is also

5:54

interesting in relationship to this

5:55

conversation. So look, I do think we're

5:59

about to experience a completely

6:03

different shift on the productivity side

6:05

because of necessity, because of the

6:07

reality, because of the crisis of

6:08

affordability. And this holds a lot of

6:11

promise. It holds a lot of political

6:14

peril in the context of the politics

6:17

within labor and that has to be

6:19

accommodated and dealt with. By the way,

6:21

if there's a big preview for California,

6:23

my last year, it's in this space

6:26

legislatively to take it to the next

6:28

level. But we have to accommodate

6:29

because there's a lot of unions within

6:32

>> I want to slow down what you just said

6:33

here because I I know but just for

6:35

people who are not as into the modular

6:37

housing debate as you as you and I. So

6:40

right now building housing is you know

6:43

guys show up with hammers

6:45

>> same way they have been since the

6:46

beginning of time.

6:47

>> This is why productivity is down.

6:48

>> Yeah.

6:48

>> And modular which there's no place in

6:51

America that does a ton of off-site

6:52

manufactured housing. But in Sweden I

6:55

think more than 80% of single family

6:56

homes are now off-site modular or

6:58

off-site manufactured. [clears throat]

7:00

>> You can have modular build as many

7:02

places do uh in unionized factories,

7:05

>> right? So it doesn't have to be a

7:07

non-union industry, but it still means

7:09

fewer builders

7:10

>> and it means which unions and which

7:13

different skills, which trades

7:15

>> are part of that. And therein lies this

7:18

is the issue we have to address.

7:20

>> When you talk about address it, right? I

7:22

I think you're pointing towards there

7:23

being some

7:26

way that it can be addressed. But on

7:27

some level uh it will mean fewer people

7:30

building on site unless we increase

7:32

housing production so much.

7:33

>> Yeah, that's we have a volume

7:35

>> and that's the and the goal is to do

7:36

what we need to do which is the

7:38

abundance of gender actually addressing

7:40

the demand side of the equation. Uh, so

7:42

I think we'll be fine for a decade or

7:44

two as we work out of this morass, this

7:46

mess we've created, not just in

7:47

California, but all across this

Interactive Summary

The video discusses the affordability crisis in California, primarily driven by a severe lack of housing. The governor highlights his administration's efforts to tackle this issue by creating a housing accountability unit, utilizing state excess land, and suing cities that don't comply with housing production goals. California has set ambitious goals for housing completion, aiming for 2.5 million new units by 2030. However, progress is slower than desired, with no state currently on track to meet such targets. The discussion then shifts to the broader challenges in housing construction, including rising costs due to tariffs and labor shortages, and stagnant productivity. Innovative solutions like modular and 3D-printed housing are explored as ways to increase efficiency and address the crisis, though these also present challenges regarding labor unions and the need for new skill sets.

Suggested questions

6 ready-made prompts