HomeVideos

Sarah Paine: The Bigger Problem With Trump’s Grand Strategy

Now Playing

Sarah Paine: The Bigger Problem With Trump’s Grand Strategy

Transcript

141 segments

0:00

But right now, we're seeing the United

0:02

States um leverage its military hardware

0:05

in a way that we haven't for a long

0:06

time. Most people agree that what Trump

0:08

did over Venezuela is completely wrong,

0:11

illegal, um and sets a dangerous

0:13

precedent for Russia over Ukraine, China

0:15

over Taiwan, etc. However, we've also

0:18

seen them now targeting specific

0:20

tankers, which some people are less

0:21

critical of because it helps reveal and

0:24

expose Russia's shadow fleet. Now, as

0:25

someone with a Navy background, how do

0:28

you look at these things? But here's a

0:29

framework that I think will help you. Uh

0:32

the tactical, operational, and strategic

0:35

level. It comes from the military. And

0:37

here's how I'm going to explain it.

0:39

Tactical level in the military is you

0:42

have certain equipment. Let's say a

0:44

tank. And it has certain capabilities.

0:46

It shoots so far. You need certain kinds

0:48

of munitions to stick in it. And certain

0:51

caliber of munitions will destroy it.

0:54

And then you take these things and you

0:56

form TAC unit tank units, right? And

0:59

they're all these different kinds of

1:00

units. That's the tactical level. At the

1:02

operational level, it's going to be uh

1:06

either a battle or a campaign, which is

1:08

a succession of battles for the

1:10

military, where you're going to put

1:12

together these little tactical units,

1:14

and probably you're going to seek an

1:16

operational objective like take that

1:18

hill or prevent someone from taking that

1:20

hill. If you're thinking at the

1:22

operational level for politicians, I'm

1:24

going to transfer this idea to to a

1:26

different realm. It would be winning the

1:28

election, right? You gota and if you're

1:29

going to be a politician and do anything

1:31

for certain offices, you've got to be

1:32

elected or the guy who appoints you has

1:35

to be elected, right? And then there's

1:37

the strategic level, the important one.

1:40

Why are you doing any of this? Why are

1:42

you fighting someone? Is it just to

1:44

maximize the kills on the battlefield?

1:46

That seems like a crazy uh objective.

1:48

And the a strategic objective typical

1:52

ones are at national levels are

1:55

improving national prosperity or

1:59

defending national security. Okay. So

2:02

you're asking me about the uh we're

2:04

going to do some ambulance chasing of

2:06

what happened this last week visav

2:08

Madura. All right. The operational level

2:11

you look and go wow they got them in in

2:14

a few hours. I mean it cost billion

2:16

millions. I mean, I don't know what the

2:17

cost is of all the aircraft carriers and

2:19

they did however many months of prep on

2:22

the uh anatomically correct building and

2:25

blah blah blah. I have no idea what the

2:27

cost of it all is. But you look and go,

2:29

"Wow, within hours they got the guy and

2:33

uh maybe he got uh got bruised in the

2:35

process, but he's alive in New York."

2:36

So, you go at the operational level,

2:38

that's great. Okay, I'll give you

2:40

another operation that was great. The

2:42

Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. It was

2:45

one of the most brilliant military

2:47

operations in world history. They took

2:51

out the US fleet. They lost almost

2:54

nothing, right? It looks great right

2:57

after it happens. But whoops, the United

3:01

States was totally isolationist up until

3:05

that point. Most Americans couldn't find

3:08

Japan on the map. And then afterwards,

3:11

the United States was hellbent on a

3:14

march to Tokyo. Whereas Japan had

3:16

intended that to be like a newspaper

3:19

thapping on the dog saying, "Stay out of

3:21

Asia. You got no interest here. You got

3:23

it. It'll cost you too much." Boomerang.

3:26

It's a disa. It is a strategic disaster.

3:29

And all of these things, success or

3:31

failure is measured only at the

3:33

strategic level. So generals can brag

3:36

about Vietnam and go, "Hey, we won every

3:38

battle against uh the North Vietnamese."

3:41

Okay, where's the South Vietnamese

3:43

government? Whoops. Right. So, all

3:47

right. So, we got Madur Maduro, but what

3:49

are the strategic consequences of this?

3:53

If you're Latin American, I mean, this

3:56

is me hypothesizing.

3:58

Uh,

3:59

what do you suppose their reaction's

4:01

going to be? They're probably appalled

4:03

and they're going to think of every way

4:05

to organize against us because it's

4:07

scary having the United States roar into

4:09

your capital. And uh I'm no fan of

4:11

Maduro, don't get me wrong. Right.

4:14

>> Well, yeah, he's he's evil. I got it.

4:16

But you know, the world is full of evil

4:18

people. And there's another piece which

4:21

is if you want to just remove evil

4:22

people around the world, you will be

4:24

overextended so fast. And that's another

4:28

problem. So this is highly alienating to

4:32

Latin Americans, right? That that goes

4:34

in the negative comment at strategic

4:37

level. It also is a question is okay,

4:40

what's everybody else going to do? And

4:42

everyone else would go, wow, you know,

4:44

no one could stop the Americans. So

4:46

okay, Cambodia and Thailand apparently

4:48

are having a tiff. Like why not keep on

4:51

going on with that? Who's going to stop

4:52

you? Right? This is the erosion of the

4:55

rules-based order. Everyone thinks I'm

4:58

doing my thing and that's great, but if

5:01

all the rules disappear, you're in

5:03

trouble. It's like um traffic rules. If

5:06

you're the first speeder on the highway

5:07

that ignores all the rules and takes

5:09

U-turns in bizarre places, you'll get

5:11

away with it. What happens when everyone

5:14

does it? There will be no police force

5:16

capable of containing it. So, there are

5:18

going to be massive strategic effects.

5:20

And then the real question is, what's

5:22

the follow-on operation? Is it going to

5:24

be Cuba? Is it going to be Greenland? If

5:27

it is Greenland, that's the end of the

5:29

Western Alliance. It's unbelievable that

5:32

we're even contemplating this.

Interactive Summary

The video discusses a framework for analyzing military actions at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels. The tactical level involves specific equipment and units, the operational level focuses on battles or campaigns to achieve objectives, and the strategic level addresses the overarching 'why' behind these actions, often related to national prosperity or security. The speaker uses the recent US intervention in Venezuela to capture Maduro as an example. While operationally successful, the speaker questions its strategic implications, suggesting it might alienate Latin American countries and erode the rules-based international order, likening it to a dangerous precedent similar to past events like the attack on Pearl Harbor, which had unintended strategic consequences. The speaker also touches upon the US leveraging military hardware in ways not seen for a long time, including targeting specific tankers to expose Russia's shadow fleet, and warns against overextension by trying to remove 'evil' people globally.

Suggested questions

3 ready-made prompts

Recently Distilled

Videos recently processed by our community