Sarah Paine: The Bigger Problem With Trump’s Grand Strategy
141 segments
But right now, we're seeing the United
States um leverage its military hardware
in a way that we haven't for a long
time. Most people agree that what Trump
did over Venezuela is completely wrong,
illegal, um and sets a dangerous
precedent for Russia over Ukraine, China
over Taiwan, etc. However, we've also
seen them now targeting specific
tankers, which some people are less
critical of because it helps reveal and
expose Russia's shadow fleet. Now, as
someone with a Navy background, how do
you look at these things? But here's a
framework that I think will help you. Uh
the tactical, operational, and strategic
level. It comes from the military. And
here's how I'm going to explain it.
Tactical level in the military is you
have certain equipment. Let's say a
tank. And it has certain capabilities.
It shoots so far. You need certain kinds
of munitions to stick in it. And certain
caliber of munitions will destroy it.
And then you take these things and you
form TAC unit tank units, right? And
they're all these different kinds of
units. That's the tactical level. At the
operational level, it's going to be uh
either a battle or a campaign, which is
a succession of battles for the
military, where you're going to put
together these little tactical units,
and probably you're going to seek an
operational objective like take that
hill or prevent someone from taking that
hill. If you're thinking at the
operational level for politicians, I'm
going to transfer this idea to to a
different realm. It would be winning the
election, right? You gota and if you're
going to be a politician and do anything
for certain offices, you've got to be
elected or the guy who appoints you has
to be elected, right? And then there's
the strategic level, the important one.
Why are you doing any of this? Why are
you fighting someone? Is it just to
maximize the kills on the battlefield?
That seems like a crazy uh objective.
And the a strategic objective typical
ones are at national levels are
improving national prosperity or
defending national security. Okay. So
you're asking me about the uh we're
going to do some ambulance chasing of
what happened this last week visav
Madura. All right. The operational level
you look and go wow they got them in in
a few hours. I mean it cost billion
millions. I mean, I don't know what the
cost is of all the aircraft carriers and
they did however many months of prep on
the uh anatomically correct building and
blah blah blah. I have no idea what the
cost of it all is. But you look and go,
"Wow, within hours they got the guy and
uh maybe he got uh got bruised in the
process, but he's alive in New York."
So, you go at the operational level,
that's great. Okay, I'll give you
another operation that was great. The
Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. It was
one of the most brilliant military
operations in world history. They took
out the US fleet. They lost almost
nothing, right? It looks great right
after it happens. But whoops, the United
States was totally isolationist up until
that point. Most Americans couldn't find
Japan on the map. And then afterwards,
the United States was hellbent on a
march to Tokyo. Whereas Japan had
intended that to be like a newspaper
thapping on the dog saying, "Stay out of
Asia. You got no interest here. You got
it. It'll cost you too much." Boomerang.
It's a disa. It is a strategic disaster.
And all of these things, success or
failure is measured only at the
strategic level. So generals can brag
about Vietnam and go, "Hey, we won every
battle against uh the North Vietnamese."
Okay, where's the South Vietnamese
government? Whoops. Right. So, all
right. So, we got Madur Maduro, but what
are the strategic consequences of this?
If you're Latin American, I mean, this
is me hypothesizing.
Uh,
what do you suppose their reaction's
going to be? They're probably appalled
and they're going to think of every way
to organize against us because it's
scary having the United States roar into
your capital. And uh I'm no fan of
Maduro, don't get me wrong. Right.
>> Well, yeah, he's he's evil. I got it.
But you know, the world is full of evil
people. And there's another piece which
is if you want to just remove evil
people around the world, you will be
overextended so fast. And that's another
problem. So this is highly alienating to
Latin Americans, right? That that goes
in the negative comment at strategic
level. It also is a question is okay,
what's everybody else going to do? And
everyone else would go, wow, you know,
no one could stop the Americans. So
okay, Cambodia and Thailand apparently
are having a tiff. Like why not keep on
going on with that? Who's going to stop
you? Right? This is the erosion of the
rules-based order. Everyone thinks I'm
doing my thing and that's great, but if
all the rules disappear, you're in
trouble. It's like um traffic rules. If
you're the first speeder on the highway
that ignores all the rules and takes
U-turns in bizarre places, you'll get
away with it. What happens when everyone
does it? There will be no police force
capable of containing it. So, there are
going to be massive strategic effects.
And then the real question is, what's
the follow-on operation? Is it going to
be Cuba? Is it going to be Greenland? If
it is Greenland, that's the end of the
Western Alliance. It's unbelievable that
we're even contemplating this.
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The video discusses a framework for analyzing military actions at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels. The tactical level involves specific equipment and units, the operational level focuses on battles or campaigns to achieve objectives, and the strategic level addresses the overarching 'why' behind these actions, often related to national prosperity or security. The speaker uses the recent US intervention in Venezuela to capture Maduro as an example. While operationally successful, the speaker questions its strategic implications, suggesting it might alienate Latin American countries and erode the rules-based international order, likening it to a dangerous precedent similar to past events like the attack on Pearl Harbor, which had unintended strategic consequences. The speaker also touches upon the US leveraging military hardware in ways not seen for a long time, including targeting specific tankers to expose Russia's shadow fleet, and warns against overextension by trying to remove 'evil' people globally.
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