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>> The United States and Iran could return

to the negotiating table this week. The

two countries held a round of indirect

[music] talks on Friday and both sides

said that meeting was a good start.

>> Iran looks like they want to make a deal

very badly as they should.

>> After those talks ended on Friday,

President Trump spoke to reporters on

Air Force One. Last time they decided

maybe not to do it, but I think they

probably feel differently. We'll see

what the deal is. It'll be different

than last time. And we have a big

armada. We have a big fleet heading in

that direction.

>> Trump said Iran knows what the

consequences would be if it doesn't

reach a deal with the US. But he said

for now at least, there's no rush.

Iran's president described last week's

negotiations as a step forward. But he

also said Iran does not quote tolerate

the language of force. These are

bilateral talks with Oman mediating, but

other countries are watching them

closely. Israel's Prime Minister

Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to meet

with President Trump in Washington on

Wednesday. The issue is as we turn our

focus on geopolitics and diplomacy and

what men in suits are saying or not

saying [music] is that we lose sight of

what's going on on the ground in Iran.

>> Bloomberg's Golar Motivali has covered

Iran for more than a decade from Thrron

and from London where she's currently

based and Golar says the situation that

thrust Iran into this weakened

negotiating position in the first place

is not letting up. economic turmoil that

drove Iranians to [music] nationwide

protests.

>> The reality is is that a large number of

Iranians

want to see change

and they have been desperately making

that point and making that case and

risking their lives for that and giving

their lives in large numbers. Over the

weekend, Iran's violent crackdown on

dissident and protesters continued

[music] with the arrest of several

prominent activists. Security forces

have reportedly killed almost 6,500

people, according to human rights

organizations.

President Trump previously threatened to

use the US military to support the

demonstrators. But it's not clear if

violence against dissident would alone

and at this point provoke a US military

[music] response. The Islamic Republic,

if you look over the past nearly 50

years that it's been running Iran, it's

never been in a situation as challenging

and precarious as this. So, I think

within that context, these talks

definitely provide an off-ramp to this

regime to try and hold on to power for

[music] longer.

I'm David Gura [music] and this is the

Big Take from Bloomberg News. Today on

the show, diplomatic talks between

[music] the US and Iran are set to

continue this week. What does each

country hope to achieve and what's at

stake if these negotiations fall apart?

[music]

The United States and Iran have started

talks again after a monthsl long pause.

>> [music]

>> The last round ended in June after the

US struck Iranian nuclear sites. I asked

Olar what brought them back to the

negotiating table. [music]

>> So right now as far as Iran is

concerned, it's in the middle of a

[music] unprecedented crisis.

We had these huge protests that erupted

on the 28th [music] of December and grew

into something much bigger than what

looked initially like a reaction to a

currency crash. It became a much more

broader, wider, widespread rebuke

against the Islamic Republic as a system

of rule and Supreme Leader Ayatah Ali K.

>> Iran is still reeling from those

demonstrations and from those US air

strikes from back in June. And its

allies in the region, including Hamas

and Hezbollah, have been significantly

weakened. All of that means Iran is

negotiating from a position of relative

weakness. But that doesn't mean these

talks will be easy. For starters, the

two countries have disagreed on the

scope of the talks and even on where

they should take place.

>> The other interesting dynamic in these

talks is that they're indirect. And from

what we could discern from the reports

we were getting from journalists on the

ground who were there um including

Iranian state TV media reporters who had

a camera on the location the whole time

they were very much very indirect to the

point where it looked like they were

taking turns to send messages to the

Omani mediator and then waiting to get a

response again via the Omani mediator.

There was a bit of a relay physical back

and forth between the two. But the other

interesting thing that happened given so

much is at stake particularly for Iran

is that both sides sounded cautiously

positive using this word good.

>> So do we have any indication if they

plan to meet or what might be on the

table if they were to meet once again?

>> Yes. So they they have said that they

plan to meet. They haven't given a time

or date. I have a feeling that may have

something to do with the fact that the

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin

Netanyahu is likely to want to talk to

the Americans.

And I think all eyes at this moment in

time are going to be on how Israel

reacts because we know that Netanyahu

specifically is not a fan of a US Iran

negotiating process in which he is not

involved in at least if he's not

involved in directly. He wants to know

the direction it's going in and he tends

to not like it to go in a direction that

he feels benefits the Iranian regime as

it currently stands. And I think one of

the concerns is if he feels that the

Trump administration is going to go

ahead and secure some kind of deal from

Iran that he could possibly preemptively

strike Iran again.

And I think that would be very

concerning and definitely escalating.

>> And Prime Minister Netanyahu scheduled

to meet with President Trump on on

Wednesday of this week.

>> Could I ask you about the goals of each

side? So without oversimplifying, it

seems like for Iran it would be [music]

to forstall or take military action off

the table. The US wouldn't strike Iran

and maybe some sanctions relief. Does it

go beyond that? Do we [music] know

concretely sort of what they want the

outcome of these talks to be?

>> I think the only thing we can go by is

what they've said so far. officials said

that Iran's priority is to protect its

national self-interest

and [music]

to secure some sanctions relief because

a lot of the domestic problems, not all

of them, but a fair amount are either

rooted in or at least exacerbated by the

economic conditions inside the country.

And so much of that comes down to

sanctions relief. If they want to avert

and stave off another eruption of

massive unrest, I don't think they can

achieve it in the long term, but they

can put it off for a bit longer or try

to prevent it from happening again is to

very quickly do something that brings an

injection of foreign exchange into the

country. For the US, a clear priority is

the cessation of Iran's nuclear program.

Officials have also said these talks

should address Iran's missiles and tan's

support for regional militias. But I

also wonder whether there's a bigger

objective here, some march toward regime

change. Connor, what is the US's goal

here?

>> I think there are a lot of people in the

Trump administration who are very clear

about the fact that they want regime

change and they have wanted it for a

long time. But I [music] think there is

a sense in the Gulf amongst Gulf

officials to an extent that a lot of

what may happen may rest on not just

Netanyahu but what Netanyahu's

supporters in Washington want to see

happen to Iran and the extent to which

they can influence Donald Trump's

decisionm. I mean the crazy kind of

situation we're in right now or the

unusual situation is that I think quite

clearly countries in the region and I'm

thinking specifically about the Gulf

Arab states, countries that are allies

of the US like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, they

don't want a war. They don't want

anything that's going to escalate

tensions that's going to be

destabilizing.

They certainly don't want chaos or civil

war or some extraordinary catastrophic

situation [music]

in Iran. It's this huge country across a

very narrow channel of water to their

north and [music] it's not good for

anyone.

>> President Trump has said if diplomacy

fails, the consequences for Iran would

be quote very steep. The likelihood of

another US strike on Iran and what could

prevent that from happening is coming

up.

[music] We've talked a lot about

diplomacy, but looming in the background

here is the threat of of military

action. [music] And we've seen the

president draw this parallel to what

happened in Venezuela. How do you think

about the prospects of that military

intervention? What that would mean if

the US were to go that route?

>> I think it's possibly the worstc case

scenario from the point of view of a lot

of other countries in the region. And I

think the reason why the Gulf Arab

states, particularly those that are

allies of of the US, it leaves them

extremely vulnerable. And we saw during

the 12-day war with Israel when the

Trump administration joined that

bombardment at the very end um

effectively kind of like preempted a

ceasefire.

The Iranians retaliated by sending a

barrage of missiles in the direction of

the largest US military base in the

region which is in Ratar. that really

really did not I mean uh obviously um

the Gataris were extremely extremely

worried and upset over that and I can't

imagine them tolerating something

similar happening again along those

lines on the other hand we also have the

Iranians

saying repeatedly over the past few

weeks basically since this flotilla

started to move in the direction of the

of the Red Sea that Any military action

by the Trump administration

would basically provoke the full rough

of the Islamic Republic. They've made

that very clear that we will throw

whatever we have at you and your allies

and your assets in the region if you

strike us.

>> And the Supreme Leader has talked about

a regional war as a necessary

consequence of that.

>> Yes. And I think they are saying that

because they want to change the

strategic calculation on the side on

behalf of the Americans and even the

Israelis. I think that message also

because after the 12-day war, I think

there was generally a feeling and a

sense not just in Tehran but outside

that the Israelis may attack again. And

I I think the Iranians were genuinely

concerned about that. So I think that's

also a message to the Israelis.

>> Of those limited options, it seems to me

there is still an economic one. They

could block the straight of Formoose.

They could with regional partners

perhaps do some blockade in the the Red

Sea. From an economic vantage, how much

would that would that do? How much could

that do to the global oil market?

>> I mean, I think that would be very

worrying, right? I think if we had

anything like that, I think even any

mention by a senior Iranian official

saying we will block the straight of

hormones if X Y and Zed happens. I'm not

sure if that kind of language would

immediately affect oil prices, but in

the current climate and given what you

have in the background, what's going on

and how sensitive the situation is, it's

more likely to drive prices up. And I

think that's what Trump wants to avoid

as well. I think this is also a question

that we have to keep in the back of our

minds is what his priorities are going

to be going into the midterm elections

in the US. He probably doesn't want high

oil prices more broadly in the country.

No one wants that kind of inflationary

pressure at that time. Not you know as

far as politics is concerned. And so I

think that is something that he may

think about for sure. I want to end with

this conversation about regime change or

the potential for regime change. So

you've described the widespread

dissatisfaction that I think a lot of us

have seen in recent weeks certainly in

those those protests and drawing on your

experience covering the country. Does it

feel like in this moment that is closer

than it has been the prospects of there

being regime change in in Iran? From

speaking to people who are in Iran and

mostly in Thran, the biggest impression

I get or the most overriding sense I

have is one of complete hopelessness.

People are really sad.

People talk of feeling depressed and

again this word hopelessness

and I think that's quite concerning. I

think that can be quite dangerous

for a country and for its leadership.

But I do I do think that you know in its

current manifestation

the system of running Iran which is a

theocratic state that came in after the

1979 Islamic revolution.

This is no longer working for the

population more broadly. I think that's

quite clear and I think the reality is

is [music] that a large number of

Iranians want to see change

and they have been [music] desperately

making that point and making that case

and risking their lives for that and

giving their lives in large numbers.

They want [music] change. And that tells

you that whatever happens, the unrest is

going to [music] come back at some point

unless there's a credible answer and a

solution to the fact that a huge [music]

number of people in Iran, a large chunk

of the Iranian population [music] feels

completely a drift from its leadership,

from the people who are running their

lives. Unless there's a credible way to

address that properly, not just with

sanctions relief here and there. That

stuff is important to an extent, but

it's the sticking plaster.

This is the Big Take from Bloomberg

News. I'm David [music] Gura. To get

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