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Ex-Wall Street Pro Answers Europe’s Biggest Investing Questions

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Ex-Wall Street Pro Answers Europe’s Biggest Investing Questions

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487 segments

0:00

If you live in Europe and have questions

0:02

about investing, chances are I will

0:04

answer them in this video. As an

0:06

investment trainer, I do live Q&A calls

0:08

with my students in 34 European

0:10

countries. I use my 19 years of

0:13

investment experience to answer

0:14

questions about ETFs, index funds,

0:16

brokerages, taxes, [music] and much

0:18

more. Until now, the recordings have

0:20

only been available to my paid students.

0:22

But in this video, for the first time

0:24

ever, I've compiled a few of the top

0:26

questions that I believe every investor

0:29

needs to understand. If I'm in the

0:30

position of investing a large amount,

0:32

shouldn't I wait for this mess to calm

0:34

down? So, I've been running this program

0:36

for 5 years, and I've been teaching

0:38

investors for around 10 years, and over

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this period, not just every year, but

0:43

literally every month, I have had this

0:46

same question. Now, of course, sometimes

0:49

the answer will turn out to be ah yes,

0:51

it would have been smart to wait a

0:52

little because the market drops and then

0:54

then you could invest cheaper. But the

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problem is no one knows when that will

0:57

be. I take the approach that I will

1:00

never do that. I will simply invest when

1:01

I have cash available and and stay with

1:03

it. I just make sure I have my safety

1:05

cushion and everything else. Do you have

1:06

any recommendations about where to keep

1:08

the cushion money? I think the easiest

1:09

is to have a high yield savings account

1:12

at a bank. Right now, you should be able

1:13

to find an account that that pays you

1:15

like 2% per year roughly. Uh if it's in

1:18

euros, so that's what I would do as long

1:20

as it's 100 less than €100,000 per bank.

1:23

Can I completely ignore news to stay

1:25

calm about my investment account

1:27

balance? For passive investors, it's

1:29

probably more than enough to check to to

1:31

look at the news like once a month as a

1:33

practical matter. Like there's certainly

1:35

no no reason to check your investment

1:36

account every day. I don't I have no

1:38

idea what what like today what is the

1:41

exact position of my my portfolio. I I

1:43

don't check it on a daily basis because

1:44

it just messes with your head and it

1:47

doesn't help in any way. For someone

1:48

starting now, should I adopt a different

1:49

strategy in order to avoid a possible

1:51

loss which will take many years to be

1:53

recovered. The strategy really should be

1:55

based on your time horizon and risk

1:57

tolerance, not based on what's happening

1:59

in the news. So if you are super super

2:02

worried about having a big loss which

2:04

takes many years to recover, that's

2:05

maybe an indication that your risk

2:07

tolerance is not so high. So maybe you

2:10

shouldn't have a 100% stock strategy not

2:12

today and not not 5 years from now. If

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you were to start building an investment

2:16

portfolio at the age of 40, what will

2:17

your realistic split be across all kinds

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of investment securities? Stocks, bonds,

2:21

ETFs, index funds, etc. ETFs and index

2:23

funds are a way to invest in stocks and

2:24

bonds. So these are not different asset

2:26

categories. And in my professional

2:28

opinion, for most amateurs, ETFs and

2:30

index funds are the best way to invest

2:33

in stocks and bonds because buying

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stocks and bonds directly is difficult

2:36

and most people end up screwing it up

2:38

and not getting good results. Unless you

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have a relatively lower risk tolerance,

2:41

I would be all in stocks and in a

2:43

diversified stock portfolio and then

2:45

over time I would add some lower risk

2:46

investments like bond ETFs. I'm

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wondering whether it could make sense to

2:49

invest gradually rather than going in

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all at once. The general principles

2:53

about dollar cost averaging versus lump

2:56

sum are based on decades and decades and

2:58

decades of market data which have in

2:59

included all kinds of volatile periods.

3:02

So from a financial perspective like if

3:04

I have a lump sum I'm going to invest it

3:05

all today instead of splitting it into

3:07

pieces. And now psychologically if it's

3:09

really difficult then I always say you

3:12

know go ahead and and split it into a

3:14

few pieces if it's easier for you. But

3:16

um from a financial perspective,

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investing a lump sum in one go is is

3:20

still the smartest decision.

3:22

>> This investing in gold better and safer

3:24

than stocks. Maybe it was somebody else,

3:26

but I think it was Warren Buffett who

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basically said, "Look, if you had a

3:30

choice for 100 years, you're going to

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put all your money and buy some gold

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like a chunk of metal that's going to

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sit on the shelf or for 100 years your

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money is going to be invested in like

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let's say 500 of the

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biggest American companies where people

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are going to go to work for 100 years to

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try and innovate and and create products

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and make money and and help their

3:54

clients and and create dividends and

3:57

income like which would you choose? And

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not talking specifically about American

4:02

stocks, but the point is gold is a chunk

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of metal. So over the really long term

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it does not create economic value. Um

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and and that's why over the really long

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term it has underperformed stocks

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significantly. it can make sense like

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some small portion of your portfolio

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whether it's gold or silver just for

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like diversification reasons I don't do

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it some people do it I think it can make

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sense in a financial crisis at which

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percent should we sell to reinvest later

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so I would really recommend like I don't

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know if you watch the whole program but

4:30

so we teach passive investing what

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you're talking about is market timing it

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doesn't work like there is no good way

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that you can sell in the middle of the

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market falling and then buy at the right

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moment it doesn't work like that usually

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When you do that, you end up losing a

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lot more than if you simply stay calm,

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stay invested and you ride it out and

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actually you keep investing even when

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the prices are going down. So you buy

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stocks cheaper. That is the usual

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passive investing approach. What is the

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ideal number of ETFs to hold? How many

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ETFs do you hold yourself? I know smart,

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respectable investors who literally have

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one ETF and that can be completely fine.

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I prefer diversification. So I have

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multiple brokerages and because I have

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multiple brokerages um at every

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brokerage I buy a slightly different ETF

5:12

from a different provider. So it's a

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little bit of extra diversification. But

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then of course if you have a more

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advanced strategy for example if you

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want to put more of a home bias on

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Europe then you will need more ETFs in

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your portfolio so it can get bigger. So

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there's no single right answer. But I

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would definitely try to keep it

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under 10. If you're getting close to 10

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ETFs it's a lot. I think under five for

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most people is is is smart. uh one to

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three can be completely fine especially

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I think uh for smaller portfolios.

5:40

Andreas asks what are the key

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fundamental metrics we need to look into

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when evaluating ETF performance and

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future direction. We don't pick

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investments based on performance. So the

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only thing about performance with ETFs

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that you can do is really check if it is

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tracking the index correctly. But past

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performance does not predict the future.

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So there's no never any point where I'm

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looking like okay I'm I'm in a global

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ETF and I'm checking how were the last

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three years now. Should I stay with it

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or not?

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Maybe the last three years were kind of

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crap, but that doesn't mean the next

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three years will be good. Or maybe the

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last three years were good. It doesn't

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mean the next ones will be bad. That's

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not how we do it. Like we pick a

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diversified lowcost strategy. Uh and and

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then we just make sure that you know the

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fund is is tracking the index that it

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should that it should be tracking. And

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the things that you want to check is

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diversification, it's low cost, and it's

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the tech technical aspects we look at in

6:32

week three to make sure that it's, you

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know, still good for your tax situation.

6:36

Constantinos asked, I would like your

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opinion about ETFs, aristocrat

6:40

dividends. So, this is companies that

6:42

have been increasing dividends for many

6:44

years in a row. From a financial theory

6:47

perspective, there's really no good

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reason to be focusing on dividends.

6:51

Like, it's not a good way to select the

6:53

most profitable investments. People have

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this mental bias where they think when

6:58

they get the dividend from a stock

6:59

they're getting richer because they have

7:01

more money in their account. It's not

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true. If a company pays out dividend now

7:06

you have money in your account but the

7:08

company doesn't have that money in the

7:09

bank account. So the company becomes

7:12

less valuable. The stock becomes less

7:13

valuable. You don't gain anything when

7:15

the company pays out a dividend except

7:17

you have to pay tax on the dividend.

7:19

There are some other features such as um

7:21

profitability. If companies are

7:23

profitable in the first place, that can

7:25

be a good sign for long-term returns.

7:27

And profitability o often comes together

7:29

with dividends. Um, but specifically

7:31

focusing on dividends too much usually

7:33

like it's not not not the smartest move.

7:36

I'm worried sometimes about Tesla being

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a big part of the world ETFs with the

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recent weird situation with Elon, it

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might reduce the value of the ETF. Yeah,

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it could, but that's why we are

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diversified. Yes, it is a notable

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percentage, but um even if let's say

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even if Tesla were to completely fail,

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they're not going to be the first,

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they're not going to be the last. I

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mean, that's part of the history of

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these broad indexes. That's part of what

8:00

gave us those good long-term results.

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Some part of the index will always fail

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or do badly, and others will do well.

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So, um if I had 50% of my portfolio in

8:10

Tesla, I would be very stressed out. But

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if I'm invested in like a global stock

8:16

index, I'm I'm not too concerned. In

8:18

times of such high uncertainty and

8:20

volatility, would you consider changing

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the weights of various ETFs forming your

8:23

portfolio? When I ran a pension fund,

8:25

which got the best results in the whole

8:27

country, one of the reasons we got such

8:29

good results consistently was that I was

8:31

not allowed to mess with it. And that

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taught me an important lesson. There

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were many times when I was kind of

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worried about something and thought,

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okay, maybe it would be good to change.

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But we had a clear policy and we just

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could not mess with it. We had a passive

8:42

approach and that ended up working so

8:44

well. And usually like if you look at

8:46

decades of history, the passive approach

8:48

beats most active approaches. So I

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always keep that in mind. Even if it

8:52

seems to me like maybe it would be

8:54

smart, most of the time it's not smart.

8:56

It just feels smart. Hey, real quick. If

8:58

you're finding this useful and if you

9:00

live in Europe and want to start

9:01

investing, you might benefit from my

9:03

step-by-step training program, the Index

9:06

Masterass. In the program, I take you

9:08

through everything that you need to know

9:09

to invest successfully as somebody who

9:11

lives in Europe. Plus, I'm always on

9:13

hand to answer your questions. So, if

9:15

that sounds interesting, just follow the

9:17

first link in the description to find

9:18

out more. Supposing markets are at

9:20

all-time highs. Would you still invest

9:22

in ETFs? Well, yes, I would because uh

9:25

the stock market hits all-time highs 16

9:27

times a year on average. It is normal

9:29

for the stock market to hit all-time

9:31

highs. That is not an indication that

9:33

something is wrong. It's not an

9:34

indication that something is bad. The

9:36

market over time goes up and in a

9:39

typical year it hits all-time highs many

9:41

times. It's supposed to. How diversified

9:44

are global ETFs? If like 60% of a global

9:49

stock ETF gets invested in the US market

9:51

okay so for a developed world stock ETF

9:53

70% will go in the US. For an all world

9:57

fund it's closer to 60% because it also

9:59

includes emerging markets. How diverse

10:01

is that? Well, in a sense it's quite

10:02

diverse because a lot of the US

10:04

companies are actually global companies.

10:06

Many of them make more than 50% of their

10:08

revenues globally, not in the US. So,

10:10

it's quite diverse. But the other kind

10:12

of evidencebacked strategy that I see

10:14

making sense is adding more of a home

10:16

bias. There are many experts who would

10:18

say it makes sense to maybe put 30% in

10:20

your home region. So, for us that would

10:23

be like European stocks, which reduces

10:26

the risk that other parts of the world

10:28

could treat us worse. like if Donald

10:30

Trump decides to harm foreign investors

10:32

or something like that. Karolina saying,

10:35

"I just don't see tech going down. I

10:37

mean, the world will always need tech

10:38

development. What do you think?" That's

10:40

not how it works. Um, even if the tech

10:42

industry does well, it doesn't mean the

10:44

tech ETFs will do well. If the prices

10:46

are are already high and and reflect

10:49

assumptions of huge growth in the future

10:52

and then the actual growth is still good

10:53

but not as good as expected, the prices

10:55

can still go down. So, I mean, sector

10:57

investing is generally very risky.

10:59

People tend to jump in when it's hot,

11:01

when stocks are high, and then they tend

11:03

to have disappointing results on

11:06

average. I'm not saying don't do it. I'm

11:08

just saying that's generally what tends

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to happen. Fred asked, "What is your

11:11

take on ETFs that are overlapping? Does

11:12

it happen inevitably or is it better to

11:14

avoid it?" Uh, my big issue with

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overlapping is if it confuses you and

11:18

you don't know what you're holding. Like

11:20

I've I've seen people they say like okay

11:22

I have this all world ETF I have this

11:24

developed world ETF then I have this USA

11:26

ETF then I have this U US social re

11:29

responsible investing ETF and like what

11:31

are you accomplishing by having all

11:33

these overlapping funds you're not even

11:34

clear what your strategy is that is what

11:36

I don't like. Now in some cases sure

11:39

there's going to be overlap. For

11:40

example, if you have an all world ETF,

11:42

but you decide, I want a bigger emphasis

11:44

on Europe. You might in addition have a

11:46

European ETF and they are going to

11:48

overlap because the all world ETF has

11:51

some Europe as well, but you know why

11:53

you are doing it because you want more

11:54

of a home bias? It can be completely

11:56

fine. Is it better to keep investing in

11:58

the same ETFs or keep adding new ETFs in

12:00

the portfolio? Mostly keeping the same

12:02

is going to keep it simpler. But there

12:03

can be some benefits to like I don't

12:06

know every five years maybe you add a

12:07

different ETF and switch to putting new

12:10

money into a different ETF uh for tax

12:12

reasons. It's one of those things where

12:14

that gives you more flexibility. You can

12:16

choose which ETFs do you sell and then

12:18

some of them will have a big profit

12:20

component, some of them will have a

12:21

small profit component and so you can

12:23

sometimes optimize taxes. also gives you

12:25

a chance to start putting money into

12:27

cheaper ETFs because over time new ETFs

12:29

appear that are cheaper. But I certainly

12:31

wouldn't do it too often like certainly

12:34

easily could go for five years just

12:36

using like one ETF or one small set of

12:39

ETFs and and then maybe add something

12:41

new. If an ETF were to rise very

12:43

quickly, let's say 20% in a single week,

12:45

would you typically take some profit or

12:47

just let the position run? I mean, I

12:48

invest in broad global ETFs. It's

12:50

extremely unlikely for a broad global

12:53

ETF to rise 20%. Unless it's like after

12:56

the 2020 COVID crash when there was a

12:58

big crash and then relatively quickly it

13:00

recovered. But even if it happened, I

13:01

wouldn't do it because I don't time the

13:03

market. I stay in the market long term.

13:04

This sounds more like something that

13:06

could happen to an active trader who

13:08

made a bet on a particular industry and

13:10

then it goes up and then you sell it to

13:11

fix the profit. Um, but uh for long-term

13:14

passes investing, it's not really

13:15

something I would do. As an ETF

13:17

investor, do you still feel the urge to

13:18

invest in individual stocks? I do

13:20

sometimes and I've done a little bit.

13:22

I've actually made a couple startup

13:24

investments and then I realized most of

13:26

them looked like they were going to

13:27

collapse and I'm not going to make any

13:28

money. So, um I I I played a little, but

13:31

that experience has reinforced that

13:34

probably my best bet is is staying with

13:36

index funds and ETFs. If you plan to

13:38

retire early and then withdraw 4 to 6%

13:40

per year after retiring, is it still too

13:42

risky to do all stocks? because I don't

13:44

plan on selling. 4 to 6% per year sounds

13:47

aggressive. So 4% is kind of the

13:49

standard safe withdrawal rate that

13:51

people have been using for a long time.

13:53

If you look at accommod academicians and

13:55

what they say, you know, is really

13:57

really a safe withdrawal rate like you

13:59

know really low risk of running out of

14:01

money, they actually talk about 3.2%.

14:04

Uh 4% is already considered a bit high

14:06

risk by some of them. Uh 6% is like

14:09

crazy high. Uh so being 100% in stocks

14:11

and taking out 6% per year is a very bad

14:13

idea. You're very likely to run into a

14:15

problem where the market drops and you

14:17

keep taking out money and you just go

14:18

and deplete all your money. Now of

14:21

course there's an alternative which is

14:23

if the market falls you proportionally

14:25

reduce your withdrawals. If you can

14:27

reduce your expenses then you can do

14:29

that. But it's difficult of course to

14:30

suddenly reduce your expenses so much.

14:33

Could you go over how much we should

14:34

keep in each brokerage before we

14:36

diversify? It's not one of those cases

14:38

where like you need 10 brokerages if you

14:40

have a lot of money just to have a

14:42

little bit in each because brokerages

14:43

here in Europe if you have a reputable

14:45

stable brokerage like good solid

14:47

brokerage it's very safe even if it does

14:50

go bankrupt your your money is almost

14:51

definitely safe almost there's always

14:54

that small risk of like fraud or issues

14:56

right I would say like if you have a few

14:58

tens of thousands of euros in a broker

15:00

that's when I would start looking at a

15:02

second broker at the point where you

15:04

have a few hundreds of thousands

15:06

maybe three brokers. I wouldn't want to

15:09

go much beyond this because it gets it

15:11

just gets more more of a hassle to

15:13

manage the portfolio across all these

15:15

different brokerages. Sakura was asking

15:16

how can I stay motivated passive

15:18

investing. There's a few different

15:19

things that I do for motivation. One

15:21

thing that I always used to do is use my

15:23

net worth tracking spreadsheet where

15:25

where I kind of take note of like how

15:27

much I'm saving and what what my savings

15:29

are worth. Even though when the market

15:31

goes down that you have to be careful

15:32

with the psychology. Another thing is um

15:35

yeah m maybe like you have some kind of

15:37

reminder once a month to maybe listen to

15:40

either the rational reminder podcast

15:42

which I mentioned which always inspires

15:44

me uh for passive investing. Listen to

15:46

my YouTube channel periodically. Come to

15:49

these monthly updates to kind of hang

15:51

out and chat with with other investors

15:54

as well. Um of course if you can find

15:56

some friends who are also interested in

15:58

it that can be uh helpful as well. If

16:00

you enjoyed that and if you want to ask

16:02

me all your questions too, I invite you

16:04

to join the index masterass, my training

16:06

program for European investors. Whether

16:08

you're a complete beginner or you

16:10

already have some ETFs and index funds

16:12

and you want to make sure that there are

16:14

no important gaps in your knowledge, I

16:16

will take you step by step through

16:17

everything that you need to know. So,

16:19

click the first link in the description

16:20

and find out

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