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Ex-Wall Street Pro Answers Europe’s Biggest Investing Questions

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Ex-Wall Street Pro Answers Europe’s Biggest Investing Questions

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487 segments

0:00

If you live in Europe and have questions

0:02

about investing, chances are I will

0:04

answer them in this video. As an

0:06

investment trainer, I do live Q&A calls

0:08

with my students in 34 European

0:10

countries. I use my 19 years of

0:13

investment experience to answer

0:14

questions about ETFs, index funds,

0:16

brokerages, taxes, [music] and much

0:18

more. Until now, the recordings have

0:20

only been available to my paid students.

0:22

But in this video, for the first time

0:24

ever, I've compiled a few of the top

0:26

questions that I believe every investor

0:29

needs to understand. If I'm in the

0:30

position of investing a large amount,

0:32

shouldn't I wait for this mess to calm

0:34

down? So, I've been running this program

0:36

for 5 years, and I've been teaching

0:38

investors for around 10 years, and over

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this period, not just every year, but

0:43

literally every month, I have had this

0:46

same question. Now, of course, sometimes

0:49

the answer will turn out to be ah yes,

0:51

it would have been smart to wait a

0:52

little because the market drops and then

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then you could invest cheaper. But the

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problem is no one knows when that will

0:57

be. I take the approach that I will

1:00

never do that. I will simply invest when

1:01

I have cash available and and stay with

1:03

it. I just make sure I have my safety

1:05

cushion and everything else. Do you have

1:06

any recommendations about where to keep

1:08

the cushion money? I think the easiest

1:09

is to have a high yield savings account

1:12

at a bank. Right now, you should be able

1:13

to find an account that that pays you

1:15

like 2% per year roughly. Uh if it's in

1:18

euros, so that's what I would do as long

1:20

as it's 100 less than €100,000 per bank.

1:23

Can I completely ignore news to stay

1:25

calm about my investment account

1:27

balance? For passive investors, it's

1:29

probably more than enough to check to to

1:31

look at the news like once a month as a

1:33

practical matter. Like there's certainly

1:35

no no reason to check your investment

1:36

account every day. I don't I have no

1:38

idea what what like today what is the

1:41

exact position of my my portfolio. I I

1:43

don't check it on a daily basis because

1:44

it just messes with your head and it

1:47

doesn't help in any way. For someone

1:48

starting now, should I adopt a different

1:49

strategy in order to avoid a possible

1:51

loss which will take many years to be

1:53

recovered. The strategy really should be

1:55

based on your time horizon and risk

1:57

tolerance, not based on what's happening

1:59

in the news. So if you are super super

2:02

worried about having a big loss which

2:04

takes many years to recover, that's

2:05

maybe an indication that your risk

2:07

tolerance is not so high. So maybe you

2:10

shouldn't have a 100% stock strategy not

2:12

today and not not 5 years from now. If

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you were to start building an investment

2:16

portfolio at the age of 40, what will

2:17

your realistic split be across all kinds

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of investment securities? Stocks, bonds,

2:21

ETFs, index funds, etc. ETFs and index

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funds are a way to invest in stocks and

2:24

bonds. So these are not different asset

2:26

categories. And in my professional

2:28

opinion, for most amateurs, ETFs and

2:30

index funds are the best way to invest

2:33

in stocks and bonds because buying

2:35

stocks and bonds directly is difficult

2:36

and most people end up screwing it up

2:38

and not getting good results. Unless you

2:39

have a relatively lower risk tolerance,

2:41

I would be all in stocks and in a

2:43

diversified stock portfolio and then

2:45

over time I would add some lower risk

2:46

investments like bond ETFs. I'm

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wondering whether it could make sense to

2:49

invest gradually rather than going in

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all at once. The general principles

2:53

about dollar cost averaging versus lump

2:56

sum are based on decades and decades and

2:58

decades of market data which have in

2:59

included all kinds of volatile periods.

3:02

So from a financial perspective like if

3:04

I have a lump sum I'm going to invest it

3:05

all today instead of splitting it into

3:07

pieces. And now psychologically if it's

3:09

really difficult then I always say you

3:12

know go ahead and and split it into a

3:14

few pieces if it's easier for you. But

3:16

um from a financial perspective,

3:17

investing a lump sum in one go is is

3:20

still the smartest decision.

3:22

>> This investing in gold better and safer

3:24

than stocks. Maybe it was somebody else,

3:26

but I think it was Warren Buffett who

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basically said, "Look, if you had a

3:30

choice for 100 years, you're going to

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put all your money and buy some gold

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like a chunk of metal that's going to

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sit on the shelf or for 100 years your

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money is going to be invested in like

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let's say 500 of the

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biggest American companies where people

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are going to go to work for 100 years to

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try and innovate and and create products

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and make money and and help their

3:54

clients and and create dividends and

3:57

income like which would you choose? And

4:00

not talking specifically about American

4:02

stocks, but the point is gold is a chunk

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of metal. So over the really long term

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it does not create economic value. Um

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and and that's why over the really long

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term it has underperformed stocks

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significantly. it can make sense like

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some small portion of your portfolio

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whether it's gold or silver just for

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like diversification reasons I don't do

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it some people do it I think it can make

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sense in a financial crisis at which

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percent should we sell to reinvest later

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so I would really recommend like I don't

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know if you watch the whole program but

4:30

so we teach passive investing what

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you're talking about is market timing it

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doesn't work like there is no good way

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that you can sell in the middle of the

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market falling and then buy at the right

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moment it doesn't work like that usually

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When you do that, you end up losing a

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lot more than if you simply stay calm,

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stay invested and you ride it out and

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actually you keep investing even when

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the prices are going down. So you buy

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stocks cheaper. That is the usual

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passive investing approach. What is the

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ideal number of ETFs to hold? How many

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ETFs do you hold yourself? I know smart,

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respectable investors who literally have

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one ETF and that can be completely fine.

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I prefer diversification. So I have

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multiple brokerages and because I have

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multiple brokerages um at every

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brokerage I buy a slightly different ETF

5:12

from a different provider. So it's a

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little bit of extra diversification. But

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then of course if you have a more

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advanced strategy for example if you

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want to put more of a home bias on

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Europe then you will need more ETFs in

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your portfolio so it can get bigger. So

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there's no single right answer. But I

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would definitely try to keep it

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under 10. If you're getting close to 10

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ETFs it's a lot. I think under five for

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most people is is is smart. uh one to

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three can be completely fine especially

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I think uh for smaller portfolios.

5:40

Andreas asks what are the key

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fundamental metrics we need to look into

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when evaluating ETF performance and

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future direction. We don't pick

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investments based on performance. So the

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only thing about performance with ETFs

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that you can do is really check if it is

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tracking the index correctly. But past

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performance does not predict the future.

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So there's no never any point where I'm

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looking like okay I'm I'm in a global

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ETF and I'm checking how were the last

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three years now. Should I stay with it

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or not?

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Maybe the last three years were kind of

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crap, but that doesn't mean the next

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three years will be good. Or maybe the

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last three years were good. It doesn't

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mean the next ones will be bad. That's

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not how we do it. Like we pick a

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diversified lowcost strategy. Uh and and

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then we just make sure that you know the

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fund is is tracking the index that it

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should that it should be tracking. And

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the things that you want to check is

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diversification, it's low cost, and it's

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the tech technical aspects we look at in

6:32

week three to make sure that it's, you

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know, still good for your tax situation.

6:36

Constantinos asked, I would like your

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opinion about ETFs, aristocrat

6:40

dividends. So, this is companies that

6:42

have been increasing dividends for many

6:44

years in a row. From a financial theory

6:47

perspective, there's really no good

6:49

reason to be focusing on dividends.

6:51

Like, it's not a good way to select the

6:53

most profitable investments. People have

6:55

this mental bias where they think when

6:58

they get the dividend from a stock

6:59

they're getting richer because they have

7:01

more money in their account. It's not

7:03

true. If a company pays out dividend now

7:06

you have money in your account but the

7:08

company doesn't have that money in the

7:09

bank account. So the company becomes

7:12

less valuable. The stock becomes less

7:13

valuable. You don't gain anything when

7:15

the company pays out a dividend except

7:17

you have to pay tax on the dividend.

7:19

There are some other features such as um

7:21

profitability. If companies are

7:23

profitable in the first place, that can

7:25

be a good sign for long-term returns.

7:27

And profitability o often comes together

7:29

with dividends. Um, but specifically

7:31

focusing on dividends too much usually

7:33

like it's not not not the smartest move.

7:36

I'm worried sometimes about Tesla being

7:37

a big part of the world ETFs with the

7:39

recent weird situation with Elon, it

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might reduce the value of the ETF. Yeah,

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it could, but that's why we are

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diversified. Yes, it is a notable

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percentage, but um even if let's say

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even if Tesla were to completely fail,

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they're not going to be the first,

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they're not going to be the last. I

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mean, that's part of the history of

7:57

these broad indexes. That's part of what

8:00

gave us those good long-term results.

8:02

Some part of the index will always fail

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or do badly, and others will do well.

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So, um if I had 50% of my portfolio in

8:10

Tesla, I would be very stressed out. But

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if I'm invested in like a global stock

8:16

index, I'm I'm not too concerned. In

8:18

times of such high uncertainty and

8:20

volatility, would you consider changing

8:21

the weights of various ETFs forming your

8:23

portfolio? When I ran a pension fund,

8:25

which got the best results in the whole

8:27

country, one of the reasons we got such

8:29

good results consistently was that I was

8:31

not allowed to mess with it. And that

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taught me an important lesson. There

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were many times when I was kind of

8:35

worried about something and thought,

8:36

okay, maybe it would be good to change.

8:38

But we had a clear policy and we just

8:40

could not mess with it. We had a passive

8:42

approach and that ended up working so

8:44

well. And usually like if you look at

8:46

decades of history, the passive approach

8:48

beats most active approaches. So I

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always keep that in mind. Even if it

8:52

seems to me like maybe it would be

8:54

smart, most of the time it's not smart.

8:56

It just feels smart. Hey, real quick. If

8:58

you're finding this useful and if you

9:00

live in Europe and want to start

9:01

investing, you might benefit from my

9:03

step-by-step training program, the Index

9:06

Masterass. In the program, I take you

9:08

through everything that you need to know

9:09

to invest successfully as somebody who

9:11

lives in Europe. Plus, I'm always on

9:13

hand to answer your questions. So, if

9:15

that sounds interesting, just follow the

9:17

first link in the description to find

9:18

out more. Supposing markets are at

9:20

all-time highs. Would you still invest

9:22

in ETFs? Well, yes, I would because uh

9:25

the stock market hits all-time highs 16

9:27

times a year on average. It is normal

9:29

for the stock market to hit all-time

9:31

highs. That is not an indication that

9:33

something is wrong. It's not an

9:34

indication that something is bad. The

9:36

market over time goes up and in a

9:39

typical year it hits all-time highs many

9:41

times. It's supposed to. How diversified

9:44

are global ETFs? If like 60% of a global

9:49

stock ETF gets invested in the US market

9:51

okay so for a developed world stock ETF

9:53

70% will go in the US. For an all world

9:57

fund it's closer to 60% because it also

9:59

includes emerging markets. How diverse

10:01

is that? Well, in a sense it's quite

10:02

diverse because a lot of the US

10:04

companies are actually global companies.

10:06

Many of them make more than 50% of their

10:08

revenues globally, not in the US. So,

10:10

it's quite diverse. But the other kind

10:12

of evidencebacked strategy that I see

10:14

making sense is adding more of a home

10:16

bias. There are many experts who would

10:18

say it makes sense to maybe put 30% in

10:20

your home region. So, for us that would

10:23

be like European stocks, which reduces

10:26

the risk that other parts of the world

10:28

could treat us worse. like if Donald

10:30

Trump decides to harm foreign investors

10:32

or something like that. Karolina saying,

10:35

"I just don't see tech going down. I

10:37

mean, the world will always need tech

10:38

development. What do you think?" That's

10:40

not how it works. Um, even if the tech

10:42

industry does well, it doesn't mean the

10:44

tech ETFs will do well. If the prices

10:46

are are already high and and reflect

10:49

assumptions of huge growth in the future

10:52

and then the actual growth is still good

10:53

but not as good as expected, the prices

10:55

can still go down. So, I mean, sector

10:57

investing is generally very risky.

10:59

People tend to jump in when it's hot,

11:01

when stocks are high, and then they tend

11:03

to have disappointing results on

11:06

average. I'm not saying don't do it. I'm

11:08

just saying that's generally what tends

11:09

to happen. Fred asked, "What is your

11:11

take on ETFs that are overlapping? Does

11:12

it happen inevitably or is it better to

11:14

avoid it?" Uh, my big issue with

11:16

overlapping is if it confuses you and

11:18

you don't know what you're holding. Like

11:20

I've I've seen people they say like okay

11:22

I have this all world ETF I have this

11:24

developed world ETF then I have this USA

11:26

ETF then I have this U US social re

11:29

responsible investing ETF and like what

11:31

are you accomplishing by having all

11:33

these overlapping funds you're not even

11:34

clear what your strategy is that is what

11:36

I don't like. Now in some cases sure

11:39

there's going to be overlap. For

11:40

example, if you have an all world ETF,

11:42

but you decide, I want a bigger emphasis

11:44

on Europe. You might in addition have a

11:46

European ETF and they are going to

11:48

overlap because the all world ETF has

11:51

some Europe as well, but you know why

11:53

you are doing it because you want more

11:54

of a home bias? It can be completely

11:56

fine. Is it better to keep investing in

11:58

the same ETFs or keep adding new ETFs in

12:00

the portfolio? Mostly keeping the same

12:02

is going to keep it simpler. But there

12:03

can be some benefits to like I don't

12:06

know every five years maybe you add a

12:07

different ETF and switch to putting new

12:10

money into a different ETF uh for tax

12:12

reasons. It's one of those things where

12:14

that gives you more flexibility. You can

12:16

choose which ETFs do you sell and then

12:18

some of them will have a big profit

12:20

component, some of them will have a

12:21

small profit component and so you can

12:23

sometimes optimize taxes. also gives you

12:25

a chance to start putting money into

12:27

cheaper ETFs because over time new ETFs

12:29

appear that are cheaper. But I certainly

12:31

wouldn't do it too often like certainly

12:34

easily could go for five years just

12:36

using like one ETF or one small set of

12:39

ETFs and and then maybe add something

12:41

new. If an ETF were to rise very

12:43

quickly, let's say 20% in a single week,

12:45

would you typically take some profit or

12:47

just let the position run? I mean, I

12:48

invest in broad global ETFs. It's

12:50

extremely unlikely for a broad global

12:53

ETF to rise 20%. Unless it's like after

12:56

the 2020 COVID crash when there was a

12:58

big crash and then relatively quickly it

13:00

recovered. But even if it happened, I

13:01

wouldn't do it because I don't time the

13:03

market. I stay in the market long term.

13:04

This sounds more like something that

13:06

could happen to an active trader who

13:08

made a bet on a particular industry and

13:10

then it goes up and then you sell it to

13:11

fix the profit. Um, but uh for long-term

13:14

passes investing, it's not really

13:15

something I would do. As an ETF

13:17

investor, do you still feel the urge to

13:18

invest in individual stocks? I do

13:20

sometimes and I've done a little bit.

13:22

I've actually made a couple startup

13:24

investments and then I realized most of

13:26

them looked like they were going to

13:27

collapse and I'm not going to make any

13:28

money. So, um I I I played a little, but

13:31

that experience has reinforced that

13:34

probably my best bet is is staying with

13:36

index funds and ETFs. If you plan to

13:38

retire early and then withdraw 4 to 6%

13:40

per year after retiring, is it still too

13:42

risky to do all stocks? because I don't

13:44

plan on selling. 4 to 6% per year sounds

13:47

aggressive. So 4% is kind of the

13:49

standard safe withdrawal rate that

13:51

people have been using for a long time.

13:53

If you look at accommod academicians and

13:55

what they say, you know, is really

13:57

really a safe withdrawal rate like you

13:59

know really low risk of running out of

14:01

money, they actually talk about 3.2%.

14:04

Uh 4% is already considered a bit high

14:06

risk by some of them. Uh 6% is like

14:09

crazy high. Uh so being 100% in stocks

14:11

and taking out 6% per year is a very bad

14:13

idea. You're very likely to run into a

14:15

problem where the market drops and you

14:17

keep taking out money and you just go

14:18

and deplete all your money. Now of

14:21

course there's an alternative which is

14:23

if the market falls you proportionally

14:25

reduce your withdrawals. If you can

14:27

reduce your expenses then you can do

14:29

that. But it's difficult of course to

14:30

suddenly reduce your expenses so much.

14:33

Could you go over how much we should

14:34

keep in each brokerage before we

14:36

diversify? It's not one of those cases

14:38

where like you need 10 brokerages if you

14:40

have a lot of money just to have a

14:42

little bit in each because brokerages

14:43

here in Europe if you have a reputable

14:45

stable brokerage like good solid

14:47

brokerage it's very safe even if it does

14:50

go bankrupt your your money is almost

14:51

definitely safe almost there's always

14:54

that small risk of like fraud or issues

14:56

right I would say like if you have a few

14:58

tens of thousands of euros in a broker

15:00

that's when I would start looking at a

15:02

second broker at the point where you

15:04

have a few hundreds of thousands

15:06

maybe three brokers. I wouldn't want to

15:09

go much beyond this because it gets it

15:11

just gets more more of a hassle to

15:13

manage the portfolio across all these

15:15

different brokerages. Sakura was asking

15:16

how can I stay motivated passive

15:18

investing. There's a few different

15:19

things that I do for motivation. One

15:21

thing that I always used to do is use my

15:23

net worth tracking spreadsheet where

15:25

where I kind of take note of like how

15:27

much I'm saving and what what my savings

15:29

are worth. Even though when the market

15:31

goes down that you have to be careful

15:32

with the psychology. Another thing is um

15:35

yeah m maybe like you have some kind of

15:37

reminder once a month to maybe listen to

15:40

either the rational reminder podcast

15:42

which I mentioned which always inspires

15:44

me uh for passive investing. Listen to

15:46

my YouTube channel periodically. Come to

15:49

these monthly updates to kind of hang

15:51

out and chat with with other investors

15:54

as well. Um of course if you can find

15:56

some friends who are also interested in

15:58

it that can be uh helpful as well. If

16:00

you enjoyed that and if you want to ask

16:02

me all your questions too, I invite you

16:04

to join the index masterass, my training

16:06

program for European investors. Whether

16:08

you're a complete beginner or you

16:10

already have some ETFs and index funds

16:12

and you want to make sure that there are

16:14

no important gaps in your knowledge, I

16:16

will take you step by step through

16:17

everything that you need to know. So,

16:19

click the first link in the description

16:20

and find out

Interactive Summary

The video is a Q&A session with an investment trainer, addressing common questions from European investors about ETFs, index funds, brokerages, and taxes. The trainer emphasizes a passive, long-term investment approach, highlighting the importance of diversification, low costs, and emotional discipline over market timing or reacting to news. Key topics include managing lump sums, safety cushions, risk tolerance, dividend investing, portfolio diversification with ETFs, and staying motivated in passive investing.

Suggested questions

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