Ex-Wall Street Pro Answers Europe’s Biggest Investing Questions
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If you live in Europe and have questions
about investing, chances are I will
answer them in this video. As an
investment trainer, I do live Q&A calls
with my students in 34 European
countries. I use my 19 years of
investment experience to answer
questions about ETFs, index funds,
brokerages, taxes, [music] and much
more. Until now, the recordings have
only been available to my paid students.
But in this video, for the first time
ever, I've compiled a few of the top
questions that I believe every investor
needs to understand. If I'm in the
position of investing a large amount,
shouldn't I wait for this mess to calm
down? So, I've been running this program
for 5 years, and I've been teaching
investors for around 10 years, and over
this period, not just every year, but
literally every month, I have had this
same question. Now, of course, sometimes
the answer will turn out to be ah yes,
it would have been smart to wait a
little because the market drops and then
then you could invest cheaper. But the
problem is no one knows when that will
be. I take the approach that I will
never do that. I will simply invest when
I have cash available and and stay with
it. I just make sure I have my safety
cushion and everything else. Do you have
any recommendations about where to keep
the cushion money? I think the easiest
is to have a high yield savings account
at a bank. Right now, you should be able
to find an account that that pays you
like 2% per year roughly. Uh if it's in
euros, so that's what I would do as long
as it's 100 less than €100,000 per bank.
Can I completely ignore news to stay
calm about my investment account
balance? For passive investors, it's
probably more than enough to check to to
look at the news like once a month as a
practical matter. Like there's certainly
no no reason to check your investment
account every day. I don't I have no
idea what what like today what is the
exact position of my my portfolio. I I
don't check it on a daily basis because
it just messes with your head and it
doesn't help in any way. For someone
starting now, should I adopt a different
strategy in order to avoid a possible
loss which will take many years to be
recovered. The strategy really should be
based on your time horizon and risk
tolerance, not based on what's happening
in the news. So if you are super super
worried about having a big loss which
takes many years to recover, that's
maybe an indication that your risk
tolerance is not so high. So maybe you
shouldn't have a 100% stock strategy not
today and not not 5 years from now. If
you were to start building an investment
portfolio at the age of 40, what will
your realistic split be across all kinds
of investment securities? Stocks, bonds,
ETFs, index funds, etc. ETFs and index
funds are a way to invest in stocks and
bonds. So these are not different asset
categories. And in my professional
opinion, for most amateurs, ETFs and
index funds are the best way to invest
in stocks and bonds because buying
stocks and bonds directly is difficult
and most people end up screwing it up
and not getting good results. Unless you
have a relatively lower risk tolerance,
I would be all in stocks and in a
diversified stock portfolio and then
over time I would add some lower risk
investments like bond ETFs. I'm
wondering whether it could make sense to
invest gradually rather than going in
all at once. The general principles
about dollar cost averaging versus lump
sum are based on decades and decades and
decades of market data which have in
included all kinds of volatile periods.
So from a financial perspective like if
I have a lump sum I'm going to invest it
all today instead of splitting it into
pieces. And now psychologically if it's
really difficult then I always say you
know go ahead and and split it into a
few pieces if it's easier for you. But
um from a financial perspective,
investing a lump sum in one go is is
still the smartest decision.
>> This investing in gold better and safer
than stocks. Maybe it was somebody else,
but I think it was Warren Buffett who
basically said, "Look, if you had a
choice for 100 years, you're going to
put all your money and buy some gold
like a chunk of metal that's going to
sit on the shelf or for 100 years your
money is going to be invested in like
let's say 500 of the
biggest American companies where people
are going to go to work for 100 years to
try and innovate and and create products
and make money and and help their
clients and and create dividends and
income like which would you choose? And
not talking specifically about American
stocks, but the point is gold is a chunk
of metal. So over the really long term
it does not create economic value. Um
and and that's why over the really long
term it has underperformed stocks
significantly. it can make sense like
some small portion of your portfolio
whether it's gold or silver just for
like diversification reasons I don't do
it some people do it I think it can make
sense in a financial crisis at which
percent should we sell to reinvest later
so I would really recommend like I don't
know if you watch the whole program but
so we teach passive investing what
you're talking about is market timing it
doesn't work like there is no good way
that you can sell in the middle of the
market falling and then buy at the right
moment it doesn't work like that usually
When you do that, you end up losing a
lot more than if you simply stay calm,
stay invested and you ride it out and
actually you keep investing even when
the prices are going down. So you buy
stocks cheaper. That is the usual
passive investing approach. What is the
ideal number of ETFs to hold? How many
ETFs do you hold yourself? I know smart,
respectable investors who literally have
one ETF and that can be completely fine.
I prefer diversification. So I have
multiple brokerages and because I have
multiple brokerages um at every
brokerage I buy a slightly different ETF
from a different provider. So it's a
little bit of extra diversification. But
then of course if you have a more
advanced strategy for example if you
want to put more of a home bias on
Europe then you will need more ETFs in
your portfolio so it can get bigger. So
there's no single right answer. But I
would definitely try to keep it
under 10. If you're getting close to 10
ETFs it's a lot. I think under five for
most people is is is smart. uh one to
three can be completely fine especially
I think uh for smaller portfolios.
Andreas asks what are the key
fundamental metrics we need to look into
when evaluating ETF performance and
future direction. We don't pick
investments based on performance. So the
only thing about performance with ETFs
that you can do is really check if it is
tracking the index correctly. But past
performance does not predict the future.
So there's no never any point where I'm
looking like okay I'm I'm in a global
ETF and I'm checking how were the last
three years now. Should I stay with it
or not?
Maybe the last three years were kind of
crap, but that doesn't mean the next
three years will be good. Or maybe the
last three years were good. It doesn't
mean the next ones will be bad. That's
not how we do it. Like we pick a
diversified lowcost strategy. Uh and and
then we just make sure that you know the
fund is is tracking the index that it
should that it should be tracking. And
the things that you want to check is
diversification, it's low cost, and it's
the tech technical aspects we look at in
week three to make sure that it's, you
know, still good for your tax situation.
Constantinos asked, I would like your
opinion about ETFs, aristocrat
dividends. So, this is companies that
have been increasing dividends for many
years in a row. From a financial theory
perspective, there's really no good
reason to be focusing on dividends.
Like, it's not a good way to select the
most profitable investments. People have
this mental bias where they think when
they get the dividend from a stock
they're getting richer because they have
more money in their account. It's not
true. If a company pays out dividend now
you have money in your account but the
company doesn't have that money in the
bank account. So the company becomes
less valuable. The stock becomes less
valuable. You don't gain anything when
the company pays out a dividend except
you have to pay tax on the dividend.
There are some other features such as um
profitability. If companies are
profitable in the first place, that can
be a good sign for long-term returns.
And profitability o often comes together
with dividends. Um, but specifically
focusing on dividends too much usually
like it's not not not the smartest move.
I'm worried sometimes about Tesla being
a big part of the world ETFs with the
recent weird situation with Elon, it
might reduce the value of the ETF. Yeah,
it could, but that's why we are
diversified. Yes, it is a notable
percentage, but um even if let's say
even if Tesla were to completely fail,
they're not going to be the first,
they're not going to be the last. I
mean, that's part of the history of
these broad indexes. That's part of what
gave us those good long-term results.
Some part of the index will always fail
or do badly, and others will do well.
So, um if I had 50% of my portfolio in
Tesla, I would be very stressed out. But
if I'm invested in like a global stock
index, I'm I'm not too concerned. In
times of such high uncertainty and
volatility, would you consider changing
the weights of various ETFs forming your
portfolio? When I ran a pension fund,
which got the best results in the whole
country, one of the reasons we got such
good results consistently was that I was
not allowed to mess with it. And that
taught me an important lesson. There
were many times when I was kind of
worried about something and thought,
okay, maybe it would be good to change.
But we had a clear policy and we just
could not mess with it. We had a passive
approach and that ended up working so
well. And usually like if you look at
decades of history, the passive approach
beats most active approaches. So I
always keep that in mind. Even if it
seems to me like maybe it would be
smart, most of the time it's not smart.
It just feels smart. Hey, real quick. If
you're finding this useful and if you
live in Europe and want to start
investing, you might benefit from my
step-by-step training program, the Index
Masterass. In the program, I take you
through everything that you need to know
to invest successfully as somebody who
lives in Europe. Plus, I'm always on
hand to answer your questions. So, if
that sounds interesting, just follow the
first link in the description to find
out more. Supposing markets are at
all-time highs. Would you still invest
in ETFs? Well, yes, I would because uh
the stock market hits all-time highs 16
times a year on average. It is normal
for the stock market to hit all-time
highs. That is not an indication that
something is wrong. It's not an
indication that something is bad. The
market over time goes up and in a
typical year it hits all-time highs many
times. It's supposed to. How diversified
are global ETFs? If like 60% of a global
stock ETF gets invested in the US market
okay so for a developed world stock ETF
70% will go in the US. For an all world
fund it's closer to 60% because it also
includes emerging markets. How diverse
is that? Well, in a sense it's quite
diverse because a lot of the US
companies are actually global companies.
Many of them make more than 50% of their
revenues globally, not in the US. So,
it's quite diverse. But the other kind
of evidencebacked strategy that I see
making sense is adding more of a home
bias. There are many experts who would
say it makes sense to maybe put 30% in
your home region. So, for us that would
be like European stocks, which reduces
the risk that other parts of the world
could treat us worse. like if Donald
Trump decides to harm foreign investors
or something like that. Karolina saying,
"I just don't see tech going down. I
mean, the world will always need tech
development. What do you think?" That's
not how it works. Um, even if the tech
industry does well, it doesn't mean the
tech ETFs will do well. If the prices
are are already high and and reflect
assumptions of huge growth in the future
and then the actual growth is still good
but not as good as expected, the prices
can still go down. So, I mean, sector
investing is generally very risky.
People tend to jump in when it's hot,
when stocks are high, and then they tend
to have disappointing results on
average. I'm not saying don't do it. I'm
just saying that's generally what tends
to happen. Fred asked, "What is your
take on ETFs that are overlapping? Does
it happen inevitably or is it better to
avoid it?" Uh, my big issue with
overlapping is if it confuses you and
you don't know what you're holding. Like
I've I've seen people they say like okay
I have this all world ETF I have this
developed world ETF then I have this USA
ETF then I have this U US social re
responsible investing ETF and like what
are you accomplishing by having all
these overlapping funds you're not even
clear what your strategy is that is what
I don't like. Now in some cases sure
there's going to be overlap. For
example, if you have an all world ETF,
but you decide, I want a bigger emphasis
on Europe. You might in addition have a
European ETF and they are going to
overlap because the all world ETF has
some Europe as well, but you know why
you are doing it because you want more
of a home bias? It can be completely
fine. Is it better to keep investing in
the same ETFs or keep adding new ETFs in
the portfolio? Mostly keeping the same
is going to keep it simpler. But there
can be some benefits to like I don't
know every five years maybe you add a
different ETF and switch to putting new
money into a different ETF uh for tax
reasons. It's one of those things where
that gives you more flexibility. You can
choose which ETFs do you sell and then
some of them will have a big profit
component, some of them will have a
small profit component and so you can
sometimes optimize taxes. also gives you
a chance to start putting money into
cheaper ETFs because over time new ETFs
appear that are cheaper. But I certainly
wouldn't do it too often like certainly
easily could go for five years just
using like one ETF or one small set of
ETFs and and then maybe add something
new. If an ETF were to rise very
quickly, let's say 20% in a single week,
would you typically take some profit or
just let the position run? I mean, I
invest in broad global ETFs. It's
extremely unlikely for a broad global
ETF to rise 20%. Unless it's like after
the 2020 COVID crash when there was a
big crash and then relatively quickly it
recovered. But even if it happened, I
wouldn't do it because I don't time the
market. I stay in the market long term.
This sounds more like something that
could happen to an active trader who
made a bet on a particular industry and
then it goes up and then you sell it to
fix the profit. Um, but uh for long-term
passes investing, it's not really
something I would do. As an ETF
investor, do you still feel the urge to
invest in individual stocks? I do
sometimes and I've done a little bit.
I've actually made a couple startup
investments and then I realized most of
them looked like they were going to
collapse and I'm not going to make any
money. So, um I I I played a little, but
that experience has reinforced that
probably my best bet is is staying with
index funds and ETFs. If you plan to
retire early and then withdraw 4 to 6%
per year after retiring, is it still too
risky to do all stocks? because I don't
plan on selling. 4 to 6% per year sounds
aggressive. So 4% is kind of the
standard safe withdrawal rate that
people have been using for a long time.
If you look at accommod academicians and
what they say, you know, is really
really a safe withdrawal rate like you
know really low risk of running out of
money, they actually talk about 3.2%.
Uh 4% is already considered a bit high
risk by some of them. Uh 6% is like
crazy high. Uh so being 100% in stocks
and taking out 6% per year is a very bad
idea. You're very likely to run into a
problem where the market drops and you
keep taking out money and you just go
and deplete all your money. Now of
course there's an alternative which is
if the market falls you proportionally
reduce your withdrawals. If you can
reduce your expenses then you can do
that. But it's difficult of course to
suddenly reduce your expenses so much.
Could you go over how much we should
keep in each brokerage before we
diversify? It's not one of those cases
where like you need 10 brokerages if you
have a lot of money just to have a
little bit in each because brokerages
here in Europe if you have a reputable
stable brokerage like good solid
brokerage it's very safe even if it does
go bankrupt your your money is almost
definitely safe almost there's always
that small risk of like fraud or issues
right I would say like if you have a few
tens of thousands of euros in a broker
that's when I would start looking at a
second broker at the point where you
have a few hundreds of thousands
maybe three brokers. I wouldn't want to
go much beyond this because it gets it
just gets more more of a hassle to
manage the portfolio across all these
different brokerages. Sakura was asking
how can I stay motivated passive
investing. There's a few different
things that I do for motivation. One
thing that I always used to do is use my
net worth tracking spreadsheet where
where I kind of take note of like how
much I'm saving and what what my savings
are worth. Even though when the market
goes down that you have to be careful
with the psychology. Another thing is um
yeah m maybe like you have some kind of
reminder once a month to maybe listen to
either the rational reminder podcast
which I mentioned which always inspires
me uh for passive investing. Listen to
my YouTube channel periodically. Come to
these monthly updates to kind of hang
out and chat with with other investors
as well. Um of course if you can find
some friends who are also interested in
it that can be uh helpful as well. If
you enjoyed that and if you want to ask
me all your questions too, I invite you
to join the index masterass, my training
program for European investors. Whether
you're a complete beginner or you
already have some ETFs and index funds
and you want to make sure that there are
no important gaps in your knowledge, I
will take you step by step through
everything that you need to know. So,
click the first link in the description
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