HomeVideos

Legendary Investor Outlines China's Strengths (and Weaknesses)

Now Playing

Legendary Investor Outlines China's Strengths (and Weaknesses)

Transcript

216 segments

0:00

What are your top handful of critiques

0:02

say of the Chinese tech ecosystem or CCP

0:06

after going on a tour there? What would

0:08

you say they're not doing well or things

0:10

that complicate their ability to

0:12

compete?

0:12

>> The first one that's I think been well

0:15

publicized is when an entrepreneur has

0:20

risen to a level of success and then

0:25

uses that as a platform, the government

0:27

seems uninterested in that. So,

0:30

>> exhibit A, Jack. Jackma. Yeah, exactly.

0:32

And there's a saying that I think I

0:34

heard while I was over there. Don't be

0:36

the tallest tree.

0:37

>> Don't be the tallest tree. The nail that

0:40

sticks out gets hammered down in Japan.

0:41

They have a totally different system.

0:43

Obviously,

0:43

>> the other entrepreneur outside of Leune

0:47

is the bite dance CEO. And bite dance

0:50

probably got the leading position for

0:53

the consumer AI like OpenAI but over

0:56

there right now. in addition to just

1:00

incredible revenue growth. This is the

1:01

company that owned Tik Tok and whatnot,

1:04

but they're not going public and you

1:06

don't see him at all.

1:08

>> Mhm.

1:09

>> You know, which may get to this tallest

1:11

tree thing.

1:13

>> Yeah. I mean, celebrities also disappear

1:14

over there. No doubt.

1:15

>> Very mysteriously.

1:16

>> Yes. And business people.

1:18

>> Yeah.

1:19

>> So, yes, that does happen.

1:21

>> I will say and for people who are

1:22

wondering, right, because the there are

1:24

a lot of how should we put this? I mean

1:27

there are people who are very angry,

1:29

very hawkish. Some people are very very

1:31

supportive and then their agendas or

1:34

alliances get questioned. I like you am

1:37

just interested in understanding what is

1:38

happening to the extent that I can.

1:40

Right? What is the actual truth on the

1:43

ground? What are the details? And

1:45

frankly, I mean, the innovation over

1:47

there is is remarkable. And what they've

1:50

done in terms of establishing access to

1:54

rare metals and everything they need to

1:56

manufacture is remar. You go to South

1:59

America or Africa and it is Chinese

2:01

everywhere on infrastructure projects. I

2:03

mean, they've been very very smart about

2:05

it. So, I'm deeply interested in in all

2:08

of it. And please hold your thought

2:11

because I want to hear everything you

2:13

have to say. What I would say is a a

2:15

piece of the threedimensional chess that

2:17

I've been impressed with is how well the

2:22

Chinese government is able to well I

2:24

mean of course they're able to integrate

2:26

with the private sector so that they're

2:30

able to use in a sense products to widen

2:33

their scope of access potentially like

2:36

DJI for instance great example people

2:39

have a lot of questions around these

2:40

cars as spectacular as they might be Are

2:43

they an extension of surveillance?

2:45

Right. These are open questions that I

2:48

think are worth asking. But you were

2:49

about to say something, so I'll let you

2:50

hop.

2:51

>> No, no, no. I I think let me make one

2:53

point and then let's come to that. So

2:56

there's two other things I wanted to

2:57

mention.

2:58

>> Obviously infrastructure. So they are

3:02

building new nuclear fision plants. So

3:05

fision being old school, not new school

3:07

at 1/4 the price that we do it here in

3:10

the US. So is South Korea, by the way.

3:12

>> Yeah. Yeah, the numbers are incredible.

3:14

>> But when we sit here and say, "Oh, we

3:15

want to reshore manufacturing and they

3:19

can build things at 1/4 the price we

3:21

can." If you don't solve that, you're

3:24

going to reshore something and we're

3:26

going to not be price competitive

3:27

globally.

3:28

>> And then because you won't input what

3:31

they have and you're going to make our

3:32

citizens buy this new from this new

3:36

factory where we're making things way

3:37

more expensive, it doesn't work. Like

3:40

>> the math doesn't matter. It it doesn't

3:41

weigh. And by the way, I not not sure it

3:43

brings jobs. The Xiai factory was a a

3:47

third based on some numbers I was able

3:50

to acquire, a third the number of

3:52

employees per car output.

3:54

>> Mhm.

3:55

>> And I got to believe in 10 years it'll

3:58

be a sixth. And so you could calculate

4:00

the total number of jobs you'd be

4:03

bringing back if you brought back all

4:05

this car production. And it'd be

4:07

hundreds of thousands. It's not millions

4:09

and millions of jobs. So anyway, that

4:11

infrastructure thing is for real. And

4:13

and I think Dan Wong does a good job of

4:16

saying that America is run by lawyers.

4:18

>> He's the author of breakneck.

4:20

>> Our country is run by lawyers and theirs

4:22

is run by engineers. And so when you try

4:25

and build something here, the lawyers

4:27

just get in the way and try and block

4:29

it, which certainly when you hear Elon

4:31

talks about why the Gigafacto is here in

4:34

Austin and not in California, it all

4:36

relates to those things. So anyway,

4:38

that's infrastructure. There's another

4:40

thing that's I think quite interesting,

4:42

which is the government may not care

4:45

about whether or not their companies

4:47

have really big market caps.

4:49

>> Mhm.

4:49

>> And when I first realized this, you

4:52

know, you saw what happened when they

4:53

they took down Alibaba when they went

4:56

after Jack and Ant Financial could have

4:58

been this big thing and it got, you

5:00

know, haircut and you question, well, do

5:02

they care? And if you are pushing your

5:06

companies to be lowcost providers, maybe

5:10

that's at odds with them being hyper

5:12

profitable and really big. And then you

5:14

can turn around and ask the question

5:16

that hearing that caused me to ask the

5:18

question, does America really benefit by

5:21

the fact that the MAG 7 have $3 trillion

5:23

market caps? I know the employees of

5:26

those companies do, but is that a sign

5:29

of of our competitive capitalistic

5:32

society not being truly competitive

5:35

>> on a global scale?

5:36

>> And even within like there's a notion

5:39

you learn about in economics classes

5:42

called pure competition. And in pure

5:44

competition, no one has an intellectual

5:47

property advantage. Marginal profits are

5:50

whittleled down just to the cost of

5:52

capital. and the consumer benefits

5:54

because there's no excessive profit

5:57

capture. If we have all these companies

6:00

that are able to kind of have excessive

6:02

profits, is that a form of market

6:04

failure?

6:05

>> Mhm.

6:06

>> And does the fact that they exist help

6:09

America in any way? I at first I of

6:11

course I'm a venture capitalist. I want

6:13

to think yes, of course. But then as I

6:15

think about it, I don't know that our

6:16

government or our society or our people

6:19

are better off because these six

6:21

companies have $3 trillion market caps.

6:24

>> No, it's not that many people that the

6:26

percentage of the country that's

6:28

employed by those companies is small on

6:30

overall basis. And so anyway, I think

6:33

they have a different perspective on

6:34

whether big market caps matter and I

6:36

think that is somewhat intriguing. What

6:38

do you think about the innovation in

6:41

China leading in some cases to the

6:43

development of superior technology at a

6:44

lower cost that is

6:48

plausibly an extension of the

6:51

intelligence gathering apparatus of the

6:53

government? Is that a real thing?

6:55

>> I'm not in a good place to know. I would

6:58

have to imagine I mean it seems like

6:59

they would have to be stupid not to use

7:01

that given their ability to penetrate.

7:04

>> It's certainly well known that they do

7:06

surveillance in of their own people and

7:09

I know that would be particularly

7:12

upsetting to people like Greg Luciano

7:14

that you know runs fire and is very

7:16

interested in free speech.

7:18

>> The flip side is there's very little

7:20

street crime. You walk around

7:23

>> you don't worry about that when you're

7:24

there.

7:25

>> Yeah. It's true also in Japan though,

7:26

right? doesn't make it right or wrong.

7:28

It's just it is what it is. And I don't

7:31

know that we have this ability to kind

7:34

of tell them how they have to do it.

7:36

Now, to the extent that

7:38

>> the Huawei stuff where their products

7:40

are being shipped out and then those are

7:42

used to gather intelligence out of their

7:44

country and the rest of the world, of

7:45

course, that's a problem.

7:46

>> Yeah. But I think the way to deal with

7:48

it, I'm not a politician, but I think

7:50

the way to deal with it, I'm more of a

7:52

believer of of the engage engage talk

7:56

about what you don't like and what you

7:58

do like and try and negotiate that

8:01

problem away like we're trying to do

8:02

with the fentanyl precursors.

Interactive Summary

Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.

The discussion explores several critiques and observations of the Chinese tech ecosystem and government. A primary concern is the suppression of highly successful entrepreneurs, illustrated by the "don't be the tallest tree" adage and the experiences of figures like Jack Ma and the ByteDance CEO. The government's ability to integrate with the private sector raises questions about surveillance, with products like DJI drones and cars potentially serving as extensions of intelligence gathering. Contrasting with the US, China exhibits remarkable efficiency in infrastructure, building nuclear plants at a quarter of the cost, attributed to an engineer-led approach versus a lawyer-led one. The Chinese government also appears to prioritize low-cost provision over large market caps for its companies, leading to a debate on whether massive market capitalization in the US truly benefits society. Finally, the potential for Chinese technology to be used for global intelligence gathering, exemplified by Huawei, is discussed, with a suggestion for engagement and negotiation as a way to address these issues.

Suggested questions

4 ready-made prompts