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The Market’s Biggest Whales are Making Huge Changes: Total Portfolio Revolution | Steve Novakovic

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The Market’s Biggest Whales are Making Huge Changes: Total Portfolio Revolution | Steve Novakovic

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1850 segments

0:00

You're talking about like a massive

0:01

governance change and for anybody who's

0:03

followed what's going on with CalPOs or

0:04

other large pension plans in the US to

0:07

make a change like that is unexpected

0:10

but also just impressive SAA model is

0:13

the board owns a lot of that decision-m

0:16

whereas in TPA all of that gets

0:18

delegated to the investment staff. There

0:20

are some TPA firms that we've talked to

0:22

who really have plenty of examples of

0:24

making kind of bigger uh shorter

0:26

medium-term types of bets. I'll give one

0:28

example of a firm we talked to where

0:29

when rates got to zero, they said, "Why

0:32

are we owning bonds with a 0% interest

0:33

rate?" So, they literally took their

0:35

bond portfolio to zero. From a SAA

0:37

standpoint, you're like, "Oh boy, I've

0:38

moved 3, four, 5% away from my target.

0:40

That's a big deal." For TPA, when we

0:42

talk about being tactical, you're moving

0:44

the needle.

0:45

>> I am joined today by Steve Novakovich,

0:47

managing director of educational

0:49

programs at Kaya. Thank you so much for

0:51

joining me today, Steve.

0:52

>> Hey, Max. Thanks for the invite. Really

0:54

looking forward to the conversation

0:55

today. There's a bunch we're going to be

0:57

talking about, but I wanted to jump

0:58

right into the meat of it. Trillions and

1:01

trillions of dollars of capital are

1:02

controlled by institutional investors

1:04

like endowments, pensions, sovereign

1:06

wealth funds, and and the decisions they

1:08

make and the flows that those decisions

1:11

drive have a tremendous impact on

1:13

markets. And it feels like we are at a

1:16

turning point in how those decisions are

1:18

being made. Um, I'm talking about the

1:20

move from strategic asset allocation to

1:23

the total portfolio approach. Am I

1:26

feeling this correctly? How big is this

1:28

shift and what does it mean for

1:30

allocators, managers, and uh, the rest

1:32

of us?

1:33

>> Yeah, what a great starting question.

1:35

Uh, you know, Kaia certainly has been

1:37

leading this conversation for the last

1:39

year or two. Uh, and it really feels

1:42

like over that time frame. uh it's it's

1:44

been kind of a ball rolling down the

1:46

hill, if you will, culminating recently

1:48

with the Kalpers news of them switching

1:51

over to that model. Now, part of your

1:53

question is is uh does this mean we

1:54

should start see a cascading effect of

1:56

more allocators going into that? That'll

1:59

be interesting to to come out, but I I

2:01

think there is a lot there. And I'm not

2:04

saying this because of the research that

2:06

Kaia is doing. I actually say this as a

2:08

former allocator. You know, I I used to

2:10

work at a

2:12

endowment in the US that was under the

2:15

SA model and that is a entrenched model

2:18

that has been around for decades and to

2:21

change is a big deal, right? These are

2:24

like slowmoving ships and take a take

2:26

Kalpers as a as a good example here.

2:29

you're talking about like a massive

2:30

governance change and think and and and

2:33

for anybody who's sort of followed

2:34

what's going on with Kalpor or other

2:36

large pension plans in the US to make a

2:39

change like that is

2:42

unexpected but also just impressive

2:46

because you just wouldn't expect their

2:48

governance and and leaders and so forth

2:51

to like make that dive and so that's

2:54

huge and I think that them doing that

2:56

almost I don't know gives permission if

2:58

that's the right word to all these other

3:00

organizations to start thinking about

3:02

doing that and looking at what their

3:04

models are like and if there's a model

3:05

that might be more appropriate for them.

3:07

So no I think it's it's it's big uh for

3:10

sure.

3:11

>> So they're the first pension who else

3:13

had were sort of the first movers in

3:15

using TPA and can can you talk about how

3:18

the governance changes from strategic

3:21

asset allocation which I think people

3:22

are relatively familiar with. They're

3:25

really the first movers in the US at

3:27

least of size, brand name, whatever you

3:30

want to call it. Um, TPA's been around

3:32

for almost two decades at this point and

3:35

really emanated from two geographies.

3:37

Uh, one would be Oceanana, Australia,

3:39

New Zealand, and then the other one

3:40

would be in Canada. And one of the

3:43

things that's really interesting about

3:45

its origins and roots is that many of

3:47

the early adopters that we know today

3:50

like the Australian uh future fund uh or

3:53

even in Canada CPP part of the their

3:57

reason that they were able to kind of

4:00

make that change or or even look at that

4:02

change was where they were in their life

4:04

cycle when it started. So in the case of

4:06

Australian future fund literally the

4:08

that fund launched day one as TPA. So it

4:13

wasn't that they had a legacy system

4:14

that they had to switch over to. With

4:16

CPP there was a lot of uh change going

4:19

on uh organizationally where wasn't um

4:23

as complicated if you will to kind of

4:25

like come in and be disruptive in that

4:27

way. Um, and so, um, for some of the

4:30

earlier adopters, there was a little bit

4:32

of either fresh piece of paper, if you

4:34

will, or external disruptions that were

4:37

already happening that this wasn't sort

4:38

of introducing something new from a

4:40

disruptive standpoint. So, um, now for

4:43

some of the newer adopters to kind of

4:45

come in and and and change course in the

4:48

in the midst of kind of a regular course

4:50

of business, you know, that's that's

4:52

really what's exciting and very

4:53

different. Um but yeah, the the the the

4:56

big names, the big adopters early on

4:58

really came out of Australia, New

4:59

Zealand and in Canada uh and and more

5:02

recently then we've also seen a pick up

5:04

in in other parts of Asia as well.

5:06

>> So what is the actual change being made

5:08

in benchmarking how allocation decisions

5:10

are being made in the overall portfolio

5:13

construction? What is the shift? The

5:15

biggest ones, I think they're the most

5:16

tangible that people can identify with

5:18

is that particularly here in the US, the

5:21

traditional model is you've got a board

5:24

that is very engaged and takes that

5:28

fiduciary responsibility very very uh

5:31

seriously to the degree that they own a

5:33

lot of the decision-m and so owning the

5:35

decision-m can come in a couple

5:36

different forms. It can be um almost

5:39

universally under the SAA model

5:42

decision- making at the or level will be

5:44

we will just dictate or or approve

5:46

whatever the right word is what the

5:48

asset allocation looks like. So you're

5:49

going to have 10% here and 30% there and

5:51

that is a board level approval decision.

5:54

Often it's in conjunction with the

5:56

investment team working on it but

5:58

sometimes the board will hire

5:59

consultants to do that. But then also

6:00

there are models where the board has to

6:03

approve every investment or maybe every

6:06

investment above a certain size meaning

6:08

that again like authority is not

6:10

delegated to the investment team. and

6:12

they're like, you know, they're going

6:13

out and doing the research and they're

6:14

spending months, you know, figuring out

6:16

if this is a great manager and then they

6:17

go to the board and do a 10-minute

6:19

presentation and the board can say,

6:20

"Nah, no thanks." You know, and that's

6:22

kind of the that's the traditional SAA

6:25

model is the board owns a lot of that

6:28

decision- making. Whereas in TPA, all of

6:31

that gets delegated to the investment

6:33

staff. The investment staff decides what

6:35

the asset allocation is going to look

6:36

like. They decide what managers or

6:38

investments to make. And the thing that

6:40

the board owns, which is true in any

6:43

model, is they own kind of what the

6:45

overall objective is for the portfolio,

6:48

meaning like a return objective or a

6:50

risk liability objective, whatever the

6:52

case may be. And so it sounds like a

6:55

small change, but it's again it's a it's

6:57

letting as a board it's letting go of a

7:00

lot of authority, if that's the right

7:03

word and putting a lot of trust and fate

7:07

into the investment staff that you've

7:08

hired and not micromanaging, not

7:12

approving every single decision and

7:14

really um uh letting them lead the

7:17

decision-m process. That's that's I'd

7:19

say the biggest number one impact period

7:21

in the story uh that you see in terms of

7:23

contrasting the two. There's other stuff

7:24

I'm having to talk about as well, but I

7:26

want to start start and stop with that

7:27

first big one. Now, what about the

7:29

benchmarks? Cuz I know strategic asset

7:31

allocation, one of the hallmarks of it

7:33

were that each asset class was sort of

7:36

had its own benchmark. So if your

7:39

allocation consultant or your board came

7:41

down and said we want 20% in private

7:44

equity and we want this amount of it to

7:45

be LBO versus venture capital or

7:48

whatever there would be a benchmark for

7:51

each of those buckets. Maybe private

7:52

equity as a whole would have its own

7:53

benchmark but even in some cases those

7:55

specific substrategies might even have

7:57

their own benchmark. How does the

7:59

benchmarking change and the as the name

8:02

suggests a total portfolio approach

8:04

start to come into play? that type of

8:07

benchmarking of like I want to see how

8:08

my private equity investments did

8:10

relative to a private equity benchmark.

8:12

That doesn't necessarily change sort of

8:14

at the internal level. The investment

8:16

team may very well find that to be an

8:18

important and useful exercise. CIO may

8:21

believe that that's a really good way to

8:23

evaluate the quality of their their

8:24

staff. Um but ideally uh under the TPA

8:29

model those types of um analysis are are

8:33

not really front and center in front of

8:35

the board to any degree regularity and

8:37

instead the board is thinking at a very

8:39

big picture about a benchmark. So some

8:42

examples that you'll see from TPA folks

8:44

as a benchmark might be just 7030

8:48

stocks and bonds and then that doesn't

8:51

mean that the portfolio has to then be

8:53

70% stocks and 30% public bonds but that

8:57

the um underlying risk profile might be

9:00

consistent with 7030 or that the

9:03

performance that you ultimately are

9:04

account held accountable to needs to

9:06

stand up relative to us uh the outcome

9:09

of a 7030 portfolio. but that the board

9:12

is not going to then go and look and

9:13

see, okay, I see that you allocated 10%

9:15

to real estate. Let's see how your real

9:17

estate did against, you know, a real

9:18

estate benchmark. It's just going to be

9:20

here's your portfolio return. We told

9:22

you that you ultimately have to um

9:24

achieve a 7030 outcome. Let's see how

9:27

you did in that regard. And that's kind

9:29

of at the TPA level. That's what a

9:31

benchmark is going to look like. It's

9:33

going to be not granular. It's going to

9:35

be it could be a absolute return number.

9:37

It could be liability driven in the case

9:39

of a pension plan. It could just be, you

9:41

know, a stock bond combo, but internally

9:45

there's still definitely going to be

9:46

like an interest and desire to

9:48

understand how your um allocation

9:50

decisions and security selection, but

9:52

the board will no longer um should no

9:54

longer be uh paying going into those.

9:58

>> So, as you said, this change from

10:01

Kalpers, let's use them as the example.

10:04

You say this change was uh not not

10:06

necessarily surprising but not to be

10:09

expected when you think about just how

10:10

the governance at these organizations

10:13

works. My head naturally goes to

10:15

something happened. What happened? What

10:17

is the the environment of the last 5

10:20

years or so? Maybe it's it's further

10:22

along than that that is causing this

10:25

shift to happen at this moment in time.

10:27

>> Yeah, I'm going to butcher it a little

10:29

bit. Uh, and I hope that I'm not being

10:31

offensive to Kalpers or even

10:32

mischaracterizing it, but I guess I'll

10:34

say it. Um, is that there's a phrase I

10:37

really like, which is you make a change

10:40

and the pain of changing is no longer as

10:42

great as the pain of staying the same.

10:45

And if you look at the history of

10:46

Kalpers, I mean, you can go back and see

10:48

how many CIOS they've had in the last

10:50

number of years or so forth or the

10:53

performance uh that they've generated

10:55

and how it compares to maybe some of

10:57

their peers and so forth. And

11:00

my my my hunch is I have no inside

11:02

information here so I don't you know not

11:03

try to suggest I do but my hunch is is

11:05

that there finally was enough

11:07

introspection after x amount of time

11:09

that we've got to do something

11:11

different. we you know you're you've

11:13

been spinning your wheels for the last

11:14

decade two decades and going through

11:16

CIOS going through performance

11:19

underperformance whatever the case may

11:21

be that you finally that that the pain

11:23

of making the change was finally worth

11:25

it and they brought in a CIO who um uh

11:29

came from a TPA model so we shouldn't

11:31

have been surprised that it was likely

11:33

for him to then recommend that outcome

11:36

um but I I think that's in in the

11:38

Kalpers case I think that that's

11:40

probably a part of the background and

11:42

motivation was that there was just like

11:45

we can't keep banging our head against

11:46

the wall. I think for other

11:48

organizations that might ultimately uh

11:50

move in that direction. It it very might

11:53

well be just more of an evolution than

11:55

like a uh um a step function. Um one of

11:59

the things that we uh kind of started

12:01

talking about in our research and work

12:03

that we're doing on TPA is that there's

12:05

different um call gradations if you will

12:08

of TPA. And it's not just one or the

12:10

other. there's a spectrum and I wouldn't

12:12

be surprised if in the next couple years

12:14

we see more and more uh allocators just

12:18

sort of moving along that spectrum from

12:21

SAA towards TPA but not necessarily

12:23

going all the way to one end of the

12:25

spectrum or completely abandoning some

12:27

of the stuff of SAA but in the case of

12:28

Calipers it definitely feels like it was

12:30

a pretty kind of step function type of

12:32

an announcement

12:33

>> we've all heard about the rise of of

12:35

private credit the slowdown in

12:38

distributions from private equity and is

12:41

the ability to react to those types of

12:44

environmental

12:46

uh impacts limited by SAA and and did

12:50

factors like that do you think influence

12:52

this decision?

12:53

>> We're not in the room so hard to say

12:54

specifically, but to your point, one of

12:56

the um appeals or benefits, if you will,

12:59

of TPA is that especially when if and

13:02

when you're delegating authority to the

13:04

investment staff, you can be more uh

13:07

quick moving, more reactive. you don't

13:08

have to wait until the next board

13:10

meeting to make some suggestion or so

13:11

forth. And then similarly, not to

13:14

suggest that TPA is defined by short-

13:16

termism by any means. Um, but I would

13:19

say that there's um more openness or

13:23

willingness or ability to be

13:25

opportunistic perhaps uh from a TPA

13:28

standpoint. My own lived experience

13:30

within SAA was if something was an

13:33

investment opportunity that was less

13:35

than, let's call it 12 months, maybe 18

13:37

months, we would just sort of go and

13:38

say, "Hey, we're long-term investors and

13:39

that's not really us." Um whereas TPA is

13:44

more willing and interested in say, "Oh,

13:46

here's a six-month thing that could be

13:47

pretty interesting. Let's lean into it."

13:49

Um or here's a 12-month opportunity. And

13:51

to your comment, like the current the

13:53

postcoid environment certainly has felt

13:56

a little bit more volatile, a little bit

13:58

more kind of uh one where um you know

14:01

you could benefit from kind of being um

14:04

uh nuanced in your decision-m but also

14:07

nimble in your decision-m. So it could

14:09

be the case that some of the board

14:11

members felt like it could be a value ad

14:15

for them to unleash the team to be able

14:18

to be more responsive and reactive to

14:20

the market rather than, you know,

14:22

waiting every 3 months for more meeting

14:24

or whatever the case may be to talk

14:26

about something.

14:27

>> Yeah. And what does a tactical more

14:29

short-term opportunity look like for an

14:32

allocator? you know, for an individual

14:34

investor might be like, "Hey, there's a

14:35

Dutch tender on this stock I own." And

14:38

like I can make some free beer money uh

14:41

by by playing this thing. Like obviously

14:43

that's not what's happening at an

14:45

allocator level. What is a short-term

14:47

tactical opportunity that that an

14:49

allocator would see.

14:50

>> Yeah. And let's be clear, too, like it

14:52

there's no and this is something that's

14:54

like there's no firm like TPA rule here,

14:58

right? So, there are some TPA firms that

15:00

we've talked to who really have plenty

15:03

of examples of making kind of bigger uh

15:06

shorter medium-term types of bets. And

15:08

then there's others where it wouldn't

15:09

feel the same way. So, like I'll give

15:11

one example of a firm we talked to where

15:14

when rates got to zero, they made a

15:17

decision to um basically um neutralize

15:21

their exposure to fixed income. They

15:23

said, "Why are we owning bonds with a 0%

15:25

interest rate?" So they literally took

15:26

their bond portfolio to zero. Now they

15:29

did that synthetically. Um so they use

15:31

derivatives to offset that. But you know

15:33

that's like a crazy decision to all of a

15:35

sudden be an allocator that normally had

15:36

a 20% allocation to fixed income and

15:38

take it to zero uh for like a one or

15:41

twoear stretch. Um but uh other the

15:45

thing I would point out though is like

15:47

under the traditional SA model um

15:51

allocators will say oh we are tactical

15:53

we make tactical asset allocation

15:55

decisions and and that is true but I

15:58

want to kind of compare what that means

15:59

versus TPA and specifically like when

16:02

when within the framework of SAA when

16:04

you talk about tactical asset allocation

16:07

usually what that means is you set your

16:09

target but you've got bands and it could

16:12

be our target is 20% private equity, but

16:15

we're allowed to float between like 15

16:17

and 25. And so tactical asset allocation

16:20

might be, oh, now seems like a great

16:22

titan to be in private equity. Let's

16:23

allow the um weight to go to 22% or 23%.

16:29

From a SAA standpoint, you're like, "Oh

16:31

boy, I've I've moved three, four, five%

16:33

away from my target. That's a big deal."

16:35

for TPA. When we talk about being

16:38

tactical or when we talk about take

16:39

making shorter term decisions from a bet

16:43

standpoint, I'm talking about like, oh,

16:45

you you're moving the needle, like

16:48

you're going from 20 to to zero. You're

16:50

going from 10 to 30. Not all those

16:52

decisions have to be those big big

16:54

decisions, but I don't think you're

16:57

finding too many SAA investors that um

17:02

make that dramatic of a change to the

17:04

profile of their portfolio for a 6, 12,

17:08

18 month uh stretch. Um and really it's

17:12

sort of the fat pitches, if you will,

17:14

which don't come that often. So when you

17:16

talk to the TPA folks and you talk about

17:18

that opportunism, it might be once or

17:20

twice a year. I'm not talking about it

17:22

being a regular thing, but it's a once

17:24

or twice a year decision that an SAA

17:27

investor wouldn't make or couldn't make.

17:30

Uh, and it can be very impactful.

17:32

>> Now, we've been talking a lot about the

17:34

allocator side, I'm sure the managers in

17:36

the audience are hearing this and

17:37

saying, "Hey, that personal relationship

17:39

I've made with the analyst in charge of

17:41

hedge funds or private equity, that

17:43

certainly sounds more important than it

17:44

did a year ago or two years ago." If if

17:47

the if the uh allocator is switching to

17:50

a TPA,

17:52

should managers be excited about this

17:54

change and how should they be

17:57

approaching interactions with allocators

17:59

to

18:01

deal with these shifts?

18:02

>> It completely changes the conversation.

18:05

So going back to the SA model, it was

18:09

pretty straightforward usually to

18:10

understand where new money was going to

18:12

be invested. You look at your target

18:14

weights. You'd look at your actual

18:16

weights and go, "Oh, we're slightly

18:18

underweight hedge funds right now. I

18:19

guess I have to go invest in hedge

18:21

funds." And you would literally go out

18:23

to the hedge fund universe and say,

18:24

"I've got a mandate to invest in hedge

18:26

funds right now." And it would be each

18:28

hedge fund would be sort of competing

18:30

against each other to fill in that that

18:32

slot that needed to be filled. Under the

18:35

TPA model, it's you're not a hedge fund

18:38

competing against another hedge fund.

18:40

you know, you're competing against the

18:42

rest of the universe for that

18:43

allocation. TP doesn't necessarily say,

18:46

I need to have X% in private debt or I

18:49

need to have Y% real estate. And so it

18:53

is a very much kind of a best ideas uh

18:56

mentality. And so that the person who

18:59

oversees real estate at TPA may get

19:02

really excited about a real estate

19:03

opportunity, but then when they go to

19:06

their internal committee meeting to talk

19:08

about what's on the opportunity set,

19:12

they might hear a pitch from their

19:13

private dev person and go, "Oh, that

19:15

sounds way better than this real estate

19:16

thing I'm looking at. Let's go in that

19:18

direction." And so GPS need to

19:20

understand that they're not competing

19:22

against like strategies. Number one. So

19:24

what that means is number two when

19:26

you're GPA really the conversation comes

19:28

down to what is it that you're looking

19:31

for? What how can we support what you're

19:33

doing in your portfolio? So sometimes

19:35

the TPA conversation might be you know

19:37

we're kind of concerned about inflation

19:39

right now. So we're looking for

19:41

strategies that we think can be

19:42

beneficial in that environment and it

19:44

might be that it's a real estate

19:45

strategy. It might be that it's a

19:46

floating rate debt strategy. Who knows?

19:48

And so there might be the conversations

19:50

might be a little bit more thematic with

19:52

the LP or or sort of objective based or

19:55

needs based. And the LP is not concerned

19:58

about what bucket they're using to um

20:03

meet that objective or or accomplish the

20:06

outcome. They're just looking for the

20:07

best vehicle, the best investment that

20:09

can support whatever it is they're

20:11

looking at the moment. And and so that's

20:13

what GPS need to think about and have

20:15

that conversation, that proactive

20:17

conversation with the LP of what is it

20:19

that you're needing and how can I then

20:22

kind of match that need and have that

20:24

conversation with you about the products

20:25

that I have that can support whatever

20:27

outcomes you're going for at the moment.

20:30

>> Do you think that that is beneficial for

20:31

any particular subset of GP types? Like

20:35

when you're looking at private equity

20:36

versus private credit, are there some

20:39

firms that maybe were hurt by the

20:42

rigidity of SAA that might see greater

20:46

flows in a TPA world?

20:48

>> I kind of hate to say this, but to a

20:50

certain degree, it you'd almost wonder

20:52

if it would sort of benefit the larger

20:55

GPS who offer different strategies

20:57

within their platform because you can

20:59

develop a relationship with one of them

21:01

and it's like, okay, great. Yeah, maybe

21:04

your private debt fund right now isn't

21:06

meeting Indeed that we're looking for,

21:08

but you know, I know you've got six

21:10

other products that you offer. We can

21:13

one of those might have a fit for us. I

21:15

mean, clearly the ones that um might be

21:17

most challenged in the TPA model are

21:21

firms that are very much single product

21:23

and maybe even a bit niche in a single

21:25

product cuz it's like if you're if that

21:28

product is sort of meeting one kind of

21:31

solution type of a thing and that's not

21:34

a solution that the LP is looking for

21:36

then it's just you know you have that

21:38

one conversation and that's that's it.

21:39

you know, it's like, great, now we know

21:41

that you do this, and when the time

21:43

comes that you do this, we'll have that

21:45

conversation. But, you know, in the

21:46

meantime, there's nothing to talk about.

21:48

So, um, I think if you're a GP who's got

21:51

multiple products or multiple

21:53

strategies, you might feel like you're

21:55

drooling a little bit more because you

21:56

feel like you've got to have something

21:57

on the menu to offer them. Um, versus

22:00

those single product ones where it can

22:02

be a pretty quick conversation of it's

22:03

obvious that this isn't something that's

22:05

going to be um, you know, part of what

22:07

you're looking for at the moment. So,

22:09

what are people hunting for on the menu

22:10

right now?

22:11

>> The environment's definitely been uh

22:13

kind of evolving uh in the last year.

22:15

You know, we've kind of gone from like a

22:17

rising high rate market to now what

22:20

seems like a declining rate market. So,

22:22

that has certainly started to change the

22:24

narrative a little around private debt.

22:26

Um the economy is doing okay, but you

22:30

know, people still have a lot of this

22:31

uncertainty on the geopolitical side and

22:33

what's going on with tariffs. So, um,

22:36

kind of from what I've been hearing on

22:38

the ground is there is maybe a little

22:40

bit more of a defensive um, bend, uh,

22:44

than there has been in the past. Um, so,

22:48

you know, it's it's probably those are

22:50

going to be maybe more of the

22:51

conversations that people are going to

22:52

be interested in hearing is, uh, is um,

22:55

you know, what what do you offer that,

22:57

you know, gives me that um, confidence

23:00

around liquidity because if you're

23:01

uncertain, you want to make sure you can

23:02

kind of make portfolio changes. um you

23:05

know where do you how resilient is your

23:07

strategy to stress uh that might be

23:10

forthcoming. So I think those are kind

23:12

of some of the conversations we might be

23:14

hearing LPS looking to have uh in in the

23:18

next couple months is is those types of

23:20

strategies that um might be playing a

23:22

little bit more defense than than

23:24

offense.

23:25

>> We did see cracks in one particular

23:28

strategy for the first time since it has

23:30

exploded onto the scene in in private

23:32

credit. some people arguing uh that the

23:35

cockroaches aren't in my house, they're

23:37

in your house. We definitely saw some

23:39

throwing uh of that line back and forth

23:42

between senior executives in the private

23:44

credit or syndicated loan world. How

23:47

similar those are is not really for me

23:49

to say. Um how are allocators thinking

23:52

about private credit after they've

23:54

really been feasting? Um but we have

23:58

seen cracks for the first time. I think

24:00

it's pretty popular to sort of talk

24:02

about the narrative of concerns around

24:04

private credit, but I think when you

24:06

look at people's books, I don't know

24:07

that it's changing too much and I think

24:09

folks are still allocating uh to that

24:12

space. Um I think there's room for that

24:14

strategy to grow in lots of allocations.

24:17

There was an acceleration of like oh my

24:19

my historical target was zero. I want it

24:21

to be 10. But I don't know that everyone

24:23

necessarily got to that target. So I

24:24

still expect money to be committed

24:25

there. Um, I think the last couple years

24:28

there was just sort of lots of checks

24:30

being written of just about anybody. Now

24:33

it might be that there's more diligence

24:35

or prudence around who you're writing

24:37

the checks to, but I don't expect that

24:39

that the check writing to stop. Um, the

24:42

bigger conversations now is just simply

24:44

like, okay, hey, we might actually enter

24:46

a credit cycle. We've seen a couple of

24:48

defaults now, so hope I forgot you could

24:50

lose money in credit. Um, and so who are

24:53

the managers that maybe um have been

24:55

around through a credit cycle? There's a

24:58

lot of first-time private credit funds

25:00

that launched either postcoid or

25:02

certainly post GFC that don't have a

25:05

historical track record for you to

25:06

evaluate to see how they can handle

25:09

distress in their portfolio. Um, so I

25:12

think that managers who have a longer

25:15

history uh and can point to the work

25:17

that they've done to navigate through

25:19

credit cycles have a distinct advantage

25:21

right now. uh or andor managers who over

25:24

the last couple years were disciplined

25:27

and maybe didn't just put every single

25:29

dollar to work as quickly as possible

25:31

and you know showed that they still

25:32

invested in loans that had covenants or

25:35

you know had uh nicer uh spreads than

25:39

because they um you know were were just

25:41

sort of bidding to the lowest IRRa. So I

25:44

think that's kind of what you're going

25:45

to start to see is just more discerning

25:47

uh decision- making from LPs. But I

25:49

don't think that the private debt, the

25:51

music has stopped uh by any means.

25:54

>> What about uh private equity? Obviously,

25:56

the big uh topic for the last few years

25:59

has been distributions um and really the

26:02

lack thereof. It definitely differs from

26:05

fund to fund and vintage to vintage, but

26:08

um it has been something that people

26:10

have been concerned with on the LP side.

26:13

Has there been any light at the end of

26:15

the tunnel for the slowdown in

26:16

distributions? Yeah. So, I mean, look,

26:18

um, PitchBook just came out with some

26:20

stats on this and there was an uptick in

26:22

distributions in 2025. You know, not not

26:26

a massive uptick, certainly not like uh

26:29

what we saw in 2021 when it seemed like

26:31

every single venture bath company went

26:33

public uh for for that year. Um, but um

26:38

maybe the news was better than the

26:40

headlines would make you think. Uh now

26:42

that being said, the one thing we have

26:44

to be aware of is how much of that was

26:47

driven by stuff like continuation funds.

26:49

Um because uh the other thing that a

26:52

stat I think I saw from pitchbook uh was

26:54

that I think it was about 20 25% of

26:57

liquidity events this last year was

26:59

through continuation funds. And in that

27:02

case, if you're an LP and you're

27:04

sticking with that continuation fund,

27:07

it's not actually liquidity. is just

27:08

left pocket right pocket in terms of

27:10

where it's you know where what fund it's

27:12

sitting in. So that's kind of a false uh

27:14

false um statistic there in that regard.

27:18

Um but needless to say uh the headline

27:21

on on uh actual liquidity events was

27:24

slightly you know improvement in 25

27:27

relative to the previous years. Um and

27:30

there is just like every year there's

27:32

optim optimism coming into this year

27:34

around the IPO market. We've heard some

27:37

big companies talk about their intention

27:39

to go public this year. Um, and

27:43

what we know from the past is if those

27:45

couple of big ones do come out and have

27:48

success, that could open up the spigot,

27:51

you know. Um, but if if those big ones

27:54

either decide to delay or they come out

27:56

and don't have as strong of a showing as

28:00

they hope, then that's going to be

28:02

pretty problematic, I think, from an IPO

28:04

standpoint. Um, so that that's something

28:06

I think we all will be excited to watch.

28:08

Um, but there's a decent chance that

28:10

this year ends up being a pretty good

28:11

year for new IPOs.

28:13

>> Do you think that this headline, this

28:14

turnaround in 2025 is enough to change

28:17

the perception? And I think there might

28:20

be two perceptions. The perception we

28:21

have as the readers of headlines and the

28:23

perception um, with the actual LPs that

28:26

that you get to speak with. So I guess

28:29

how different is the perception from the

28:31

outside versus the conversation you're

28:33

having with insiders? Well, the other

28:35

thing to keep in mind too around the

28:36

tune is that that the there's two kind

28:38

of things that you're thinking about

28:39

when you're limited partner is am I

28:42

getting distributions when I think I

28:45

should be getting them? You know, you

28:46

make an investment in private equity

28:47

funds, you know, you're not going to get

28:48

a distribution in year one or year two,

28:50

right? Like that's we know how it works,

28:52

but by the time it gets to year four,

28:54

five, six, you're starting to expect

28:57

some degree of um um liquidity. So

29:01

there's sort of that conversation as to

29:02

like is this fund getting to the point

29:04

where you're like hey you know you're

29:06

six seven years into and I haven't seen

29:07

a dollar yet. That's that's a very

29:09

legitimate conversation. But then the

29:12

other thing that can drive that

29:13

conversation could be there can be funds

29:15

that are giving distributions in year

29:17

six but um you know uh I know we've all

29:20

kind of heard and seen headlines around

29:21

the denominator effect. As long as the

29:24

public markets are continuing to do what

29:26

they're doing with, you know, 10, 15,

29:28

20% returns per year and if private

29:32

equity is also similarly having, you

29:34

know, um,

29:36

huge returns along with that and they're

29:39

not giving

29:41

enough distributions to sort of offset

29:43

that like nav growth, your issue becomes

29:46

like, oh gosh, I'm overallocated. And

29:49

this is a SAA problem in a lot of ways,

29:51

more so than a TPA problem, but like

29:54

it's like the GPS need to overdistribute

29:58

to keep the weight where the LPs want it

30:01

to be, right? So they might be

30:04

distributing at what they feel like is

30:05

an appropriate cycle, but if their NAV

30:07

growth continues to be so healthy

30:09

because, you know, public markets are

30:10

doing well or so forth and the

30:12

underlying uh value is going up, they're

30:14

not like giving back enough money to LPs

30:17

that they continue to have this I'm

30:19

overweight issue. Um, which um, you

30:22

know, is is a is a little bit more of an

30:23

LP problem, but might be contributing to

30:25

that whole headline of we need

30:27

liquidity. we need you to give us money

30:28

back because without that we're

30:30

overweight and we can't make new

30:31

investments and everyone wants to make

30:32

new investments. You know,

30:34

>> we talked about continuation vehicles a

30:36

lot. I mean, there are new entrance into

30:38

the world of private markets and

30:39

alternatives and that's private wealth

30:41

and mom and pop are starting to get in

30:44

there. Is that going to be the the big

30:47

driver?

30:48

Are we really going to see distributions

30:50

purely come from IPOs to the public

30:53

market or or do you think continuation

30:54

vehicles secondary markets are going to

30:58

be a bigger part of liquidity and

31:01

distributions for LPS moving forward and

31:03

that's not changing.

31:04

>> One thing that we need to keep in mind

31:06

though is a company goes public but it

31:09

still is going to be a while before you

31:11

actually see distributions from that

31:12

venture capital firm. First of all,

31:14

they've got lockups. Venture capital

31:16

firms do. But then secondly, they um

31:19

they may very much val you know with

31:22

valid reasoning wish to hold on to that

31:25

stock for maybe two years before they

31:27

decide it's time to sell and exit. So um

31:30

you know they can go public. There might

31:32

be a little bit of liquidity potentially

31:33

from a secondary if if any shares are

31:36

sold second from a secondary standpoint

31:38

at at the IPO. But it's sort of funny

31:40

that you can we can be like oh great

31:42

there's an IPO. I'm going to get my

31:43

money. It's like you might not actually

31:44

get it for another year or two

31:46

depending. Um, so to that point though,

31:49

like what's really cool now is two

31:52

things. One, LPs have more control, if

31:56

that's the right word, over liquidity to

31:58

a certain degree in their portfolio.

31:59

We've seen a rise of secondary markets.

32:02

It's no longer kind of like a novel

32:04

thing or like a um for only for some

32:08

people type of a thing. If you're an LP,

32:10

like part of your liquidity decision

32:12

process is using the secondary markets.

32:14

So, if you feel like you're not getting

32:16

enough distributions or you feel like

32:17

you need to rebalance your portfolio,

32:19

it's there's no stigma around it.

32:21

There's no challenges around accessing

32:23

it. Um, you know, depending on what

32:25

you're selling, you can still get pretty

32:27

reasonable marks for those sales. So, I

32:30

think that that's something that's here

32:31

to stay and we can probably will

32:33

continue to see for a while here is is

32:37

LPS sort of taking more ownership or

32:40

control, if you will, of their liquidity

32:42

by using the secondary market. To go to

32:44

your point specifically about the real

32:46

investors, what's probably exciting for

32:48

LPS is that that's new money that needs

32:51

to get put to work. And so, you're

32:53

seeing evergreen funds come out or other

32:55

types of funds come out that are

32:56

catering to the retail investors. They

32:58

might

32:59

those funds might go and find new deals

33:02

that aren't already private equity

33:04

backed, but certainly lowhanging fruit

33:06

would be to go and uh be an exit for a

33:10

fund that's holding on to a company. So,

33:13

if I'm a retail investor, one thing that

33:15

I'm mindful of is it's very possible

33:17

that my money is buying a deal that's,

33:21

you know, been trapped in a portfolio

33:23

for the last eight years. And that can

33:24

be a really great deal, uh, or it could

33:26

be that, you know, who knows? Um, but I

33:29

do think that the retail money could be

33:30

a um a welcome source of capital to help

33:35

create exits. Uh, on the GP side, we saw

33:38

some headlines this year. I believe it

33:40

was Harvard, maybe a couple of other

33:43

endowments did go into the secondary

33:46

market for some of their private equity

33:47

stakes. Um, I believe that the discount

33:49

was around 15% to the marks. Uh

33:53

certainly depending upon what side of

33:55

the aisle you were on, uh some people

33:57

were saying, "Oh, this is the endowments

33:59

are giving up on private equity and

34:01

they're blasting for the door." And then

34:02

other people said, "No, this is just

34:04

standard uh type of stuff." How did you

34:08

view those headlines? And do you think

34:11

15% is the the benchmark right now for

34:15

what you're going to get if you want

34:16

liquidity? The answer sort of depends on

34:18

what you're selling, but we have really

34:19

good statistics around sort of what the

34:21

average price is depending if it's a

34:23

buyout portfolio versus a venture

34:25

portfolio versus real estate. If you

34:27

told me that LP was selling a

34:30

diversified portfolio of buyout

34:32

investments, I would uh in today's

34:35

market, I would say that you know a

34:37

discount of kind of 5 to 10% would feel

34:40

like kind of the equilibrium if you

34:42

will. And so if they sold something at

34:44

and it was a buyout portfolio and they

34:46

sold it at like a 15% discount, I would

34:48

be like, "Oh, that seems like they maybe

34:50

kind of, you know, lost a little bit out

34:51

on that, unless they were really selling

34:53

some drags of their portfolio, if you

34:54

will." Um whereas if it was like a

34:56

venture portfolio, we know, everyone

34:58

knows if you're selling venture, not

35:00

because venture is bad, it's just

35:01

there's even less liquidity there and

35:03

there's um you know, higher risk that

35:04

it's you're going to take a different

35:06

discount. So I'd have to look at the

35:07

exact composition of what they were

35:08

selling. But I would say if you're just

35:10

talking about middle of the fairway

35:12

buyout portfolios that are four, six

35:15

years old, probably like if you're

35:17

selling for five, eight, 10% discount,

35:20

that feels like it's a reasonable price.

35:23

And I'm as a observer uh of this, I

35:27

wouldn't say that like that's a a bad

35:29

outcome. Um don't forget it's an

35:31

opportunity cost. What are you doing

35:32

with that money now that you're getting

35:33

it right? you might be able to go

35:35

reinvest it into something that you

35:36

think is going to even do better than

35:38

what it was sitting in the first place

35:39

and can well overcome that 10% discount.

35:42

The other thing to keep in mind too,

35:43

part of that discount is sort of the um

35:46

prepaying for fees that you know are

35:48

going to come, right? Like if I just

35:50

hand over that portfolio to someone

35:52

else, if there's no change in underlying

35:54

NAV, you know, you're paying fees on it

35:57

for the next couple of years. So the

35:58

buyers usually have to take a pay a

36:00

little bit less so they don't sort of um

36:03

lose on the fee component to it. So

36:05

there is sort of like embedded costs

36:08

that's the right word anytime you're

36:09

buying a portfolio. So it is natural to

36:12

expect there to be a little bit of a

36:13

discount which has nothing to do with

36:15

the assets but more to just do with the

36:16

expenses associated with it. So um at

36:19

the end of the day you know Harvard and

36:21

those other ones they they'll the way

36:23

they'll prove if it was a good outcome

36:25

is what they do with the money that they

36:27

freed up. they take that liquidity and

36:29

make some investments that then kind of

36:31

generate, you know, 15% IRS, 20% IRRs,

36:35

you know, they'll come out ahead and it

36:36

was a good deal for them.

36:38

>> That's the question.

36:39

>> Who then is the buyer? Who's stepping in

36:41

to take that 5 to 8% discounted uh

36:45

discounted stake? Is it other

36:49

>> LPS who have already been in the market?

36:51

are these sort of middle tier LPs who

36:53

don't get access to the same quality of

36:56

funds or maybe they didn't have access

36:58

to the same vintages because they were

36:59

entirely they weren't in alts 10 years

37:01

ago or whatever it is who who is

37:03

stepping in is interested in buying

37:04

these stakes on the secondary market.

37:06

>> Yeah, there's lots of different good

37:07

reasons some of which you already you

37:09

know mentioned. So one good reason would

37:10

be I'm newer to the strategy and asset

37:12

class. I know it's important for me to

37:14

be diversified by vintage year. One of

37:16

the best ways to do that is through

37:19

buying a secondary portfolio because now

37:21

you can step in and now all of your

37:23

money is sort of lumped into one brand

37:25

new vintage and you can get NAV into the

37:28

ground right away. If I go and take $10

37:30

million and I give it and that's my

37:32

allocation to private equity and I give

37:34

it to a fund manager, it's going to take

37:35

five years for that to get drawn down.

37:37

But if I put a portion of that into a

37:39

secondary purchase, immediately I now

37:41

have NAV in the ground for that

37:42

allocation. So anyone who's sort of

37:44

starting from zero or near zero, a

37:46

secondary allocation can be really

37:49

useful to get money into the ground and

37:51

get that vintage diversification which

37:53

we all talk about as being very very

37:54

important to not have all your eggs in

37:56

one basket from a time standpoint. So

37:58

there's a really good reason on that

38:00

side. The other one that you mentioned

38:01

which I would also very much affirm is

38:04

um it's a good way to get your foot into

38:06

the door to certain relationships that

38:07

might be close to you otherwise. Once

38:09

you become an owner of that stake, um

38:12

you you you now are an LP with that GP

38:15

um you know and you can start being more

38:18

formal in your relationship with them

38:19

and maybe that allows you to develop

38:21

enough of relationship that in future

38:23

fundraising you can you can get that um

38:25

ticket with them that you wanted to have

38:27

or a larger size you know than you had

38:29

before if you would already were in the

38:31

door but not not in a meaningful way. So

38:33

those are two really really good you

38:35

know reasons and then the last one is if

38:37

you look at the historical return

38:39

profile for secondaries

38:42

you know I I can't deny the fact that

38:44

the IRRs specifically not the multiples

38:47

the IRRs on secondary investing are very

38:51

robust. So, if you're somebody who's irr

38:54

focused in your returns, um it could be

38:57

a really great strategy for you to sort

38:59

of meet that kind of benchmark, if you

39:01

will, and put some great irra numbers up

39:05

uh in your portfolio because that is

39:06

something that secondaries have a robust

39:08

history of succeeding in terms of uh

39:11

creating or in cynically manipulating

39:14

high IRS.

39:14

>> Are there some sharkier LPs out there

39:16

who are like, "Yeah, we'll wait. We'll

39:18

wait 5 years. still be somebody who

39:19

wants to get out and we'll buy their

39:21

stake at a discount, get the same assets

39:23

and we're happy to wait and it'll be

39:25

shorter time to get our money back.

39:26

>> One thing you have to keep in mind with

39:27

an LP, the second for the most part, the

39:30

second you make that decision to sell on

39:32

the secondary market, you're probably

39:35

ending that relationship with that GP.

39:38

So, you know, if it's a GP you want to

39:40

be with long term, and you're just like,

39:42

"Hey, I want this liquidity, but I'll

39:43

see you for the next fund." you know, I

39:46

don't want to guarantee that the GP is

39:47

going to be really excited about letting

39:49

you in the door the next time around.

39:51

Um, so, you know, and I mean, in all

39:54

sincerity, you again, take putting my LP

39:57

head on. You hope that when you find

39:59

that GP that you're partners with them

40:00

for the rest of, you know, for the next

40:02

20, 30 years, you're not LPs aren't in

40:05

the business of turning a portfolio and

40:07

finding new GPS over and over and over

40:09

again. you know, you really want to make

40:11

sure you really hope that you put all

40:12

this time of investment into a really

40:13

long-term relationship. So, really,

40:16

you're only doing that LP uh secondary

40:18

sale when um you know that um you're

40:22

unlikely to renew that relationship with

40:25

the GP uh anytime soon because it's a

40:27

pretty big decision that is likely to

40:30

sort of

40:32

end that relationship for um if not

40:35

permanently for a while.

40:37

>> Yeah, that's interesting. I was my

40:38

question was more about the other side

40:40

which would be the the

40:43

>> LP who says I'm going to pass on putting

40:47

money in on day one because I know that

40:50

there is going to be a market for this

40:52

down the line and is it allowing

40:55

>> is it allowing LPS to actually wait and

40:58

see how you deploy the capital uh

41:01

whereas in in prior cycles you had to be

41:04

there on day one.

41:05

>> It's a good question. The one thing to

41:07

keep in mind is like it's competitive,

41:09

right? So, um

41:13

it is possible that you could still get

41:15

in at a at a discount. That's that's

41:17

true. Um but you're not going to be the

41:20

only one bidding on the asset and it's

41:23

most likely going to go to the highest

41:24

bidder. So, if you're prepared to be the

41:26

highest bidder, that's fine. And by the

41:28

way, really high quality GPS that are

41:31

brand name GPS, there can be times in

41:34

the cycle where on the secondary market

41:37

their their funds trade above NAF.

41:41

You know, I've I' I've been in that

41:43

situation where where we've been able to

41:45

sort of execute that or see that happen

41:47

in the marketplace. So, um you know,

41:50

that's something to keep in mind as well

41:51

that it it's not always the case that

41:53

things trade at a discount. Um, so

41:57

I would say if you have the opportunity

41:58

as an LP to get into a really attractive

42:01

GP that you know is kind of hard to get

42:03

into, you're probably going to jump at

42:05

it, uh, period in the story and not just

42:07

not try to kind of be, um, you know,

42:10

slick about it in terms of waiting and

42:13

seeing if it comes up on the secondary

42:14

market. Um, but to your point, like

42:16

maybe for the more uh kind of um generic

42:20

names that are out there, you might say,

42:22

"Hey, sure, I'm sure, you know, big

42:24

asset manager fund X will be on the

42:27

secondary market and 5 years from now, I

42:29

can get into it then." Um, but you just

42:32

have to keep in mind that if you're

42:33

going to win that bid, you're paying the

42:34

highest price and that doesn't always

42:36

mean that you got a deal.

42:37

>> So, when I think about the the secondary

42:39

market, there's the ability to buy

42:41

stakes directly between LPs. So Harvard

42:44

sells their stake. There's the

42:47

continuation vehicle where maybe the

42:49

assets get moved to a new continuation

42:52

fund. And then there are these secondary

42:55

funds which they're going around and

42:58

trying to buy things on the secondary

42:59

market and create maybe a more

43:01

diversified portfolio of secondaries.

43:04

You mentioned being able to get in in

43:06

the secondary market as an opportunity

43:08

to develop a relationship with um a GP.

43:11

I guess that's really only the case if

43:13

you become the actual owner. What about

43:16

uh the these other funds out there that

43:18

are separate from the original GP?

43:22

>> So the continuation vehicle is

43:24

definitely one that could work in your

43:26

favor as an LP. This isn't universal for

43:29

every single continuation fund, but

43:31

there certainly are continuation funds

43:33

that are being uh offered to

43:36

non-existing LPS. So you could um

43:40

because not every single existing LP

43:42

will um say yes to the continuation

43:45

vehicle and maybe not every existing one

43:48

that is saying yes will want to go above

43:50

their prata. So there might be

43:51

allocation left over and the GPS will

43:53

fill that by bringing in new outside

43:55

LPS. So no question absolutely you as an

43:58

LP can be optimistic in that way and

44:00

make your first kind of relationship

44:02

with that GP be through one of their

44:04

continuation vehicles and then let that

44:06

be your kind of entry into future fund

44:08

investments. Um to your point if you go

44:11

with sort of one of the um standard

44:13

secondary fund managers uh it that's

44:16

probably a little bit harder of a way to

44:18

build those relationships with the

44:20

underlying GP depending on who that

44:22

secondary fund manager is. if they're

44:24

maybe smaller and nicher, they might be

44:27

willing to be open and working with you

44:28

to make introductions. Um, you know,

44:30

maybe if you are trying to partner with

44:32

that secondary fund manager around

44:34

offering co-investment dollars or other

44:36

kind of things that they can do that's a

44:39

little bit more bespoke with you that

44:40

gets you to kind of have a more direct

44:43

relationship with the GP. Uh, but I

44:45

would say it's probably the harder

44:46

avenue. you'd have to be more creative

44:48

with those secondary fund managers to

44:50

kind of have them intermediate that

44:53

introduction and and make you be more of

44:56

the face of the dollars rather than that

44:58

secondary fund manager. But continuation

44:59

funds absolutely that could be another

45:01

great way to get directly to that GP.

45:03

>> I want to switch to uh slightly more

45:06

liquid alternatives and hedge funds.

45:08

It's the end of the year or beginning of

45:10

the year and that means we're getting uh

45:13

performance numbers and certainly in

45:15

years like we had in 2025 where equity

45:17

markets have performed well on the back

45:20

of multiple years of equity markets

45:22

performing well. People love to compare

45:25

hedge funds to the S&P 500 and you start

45:28

to see that commentary. Well, why would

45:29

anybody invest in these vehicles when

45:32

this is what I did in my PA which was,

45:34

you know, 50% Nvidia or something like

45:37

that. Yeah.

45:37

>> Um and and so that it's a perennial

45:40

conversation that happens when hedge

45:41

fund returns come out, especially in up

45:44

years. And I always think it's just

45:45

helpful to get the LP perspective. You

45:47

know, you've been in that seat and

45:49

specifically looked at hedge funds. What

45:52

is attractive about hedge funds to LPs?

45:56

In theory, the hedge funds should be an

46:00

area that would be able to take

46:02

advantage of some of the greatest sort

46:04

of alpha creation opportunities, if you

46:07

will. Uh, dispersion in markets, the

46:12

issues with fundamentals across

46:14

different companies, so you can kind of

46:15

go long and short and take advantage of

46:18

those dislocations that might exist and

46:20

so forth. Um, but when you have beta

46:23

driven markets, dispersions low,

46:26

everyone's fundamentals are on. So, you

46:29

know, you're not getting that or the

46:31

ones that are like overpriced, just

46:32

continue to be overpriced and become

46:34

more overpriced or whatever the case may

46:35

be. And so, one of the things that's

46:38

been really challenging for hedge funds

46:40

over the last decade plus, is that

46:43

much more of the returns in the market

46:44

have been driven by beta than alpha.

46:47

And then the way the model is set up for

46:50

hedge funds in terms of how they're

46:52

compensated is, you know, you're paying

46:54

them 2 and 20 on the returns and then

46:56

you're looking at your returns about I'm

46:57

paying it 20% on a lot of beta. And as a

47:01

and as an LP, that's not something that

47:03

you're like, well, if I'm just going to

47:04

get a bunch of beta, no, and not

47:07

necessarily the fault of the hedge fund,

47:08

just more the underlying environment.

47:10

You're like, I should just go long only

47:11

then. Um, and so what the market really

47:14

needs from a what the hedge fund market

47:17

really needs is to see some of the uh

47:21

elements that are conducive to creating

47:24

more alpha opportunities to kind of

47:26

reappear. um for beta to not be the

47:29

dominant driver, if you will, not just

47:31

continue to have equity markets go up 15

47:34

20 plus percent per year or whatever,

47:35

actually have dispersion, actually have

47:38

um uh opportunities where where where um

47:42

you know, you you can can generate

47:43

returns on both sides of your book. Um

47:46

but uh until that happens, I think that

47:49

um there's going to continue to just

47:50

sort of be a lack of love uh for hedge

47:53

funds, frustrations about the

47:55

performance that they're generating.

47:57

I'll quickly just mention like you

47:58

mentioned kind of the year- end review.

48:00

I was just looking at hedge fund

48:01

benchmarks recently to see how they

48:04

finished the year and I'm sure that

48:07

hedge fund advocates will point out to

48:08

hey look at equity long short it was up

48:11

10 12% or even some strategies are doing

48:13

more than that. It's like okay yeah well

48:15

that was driven by the beta right? You

48:18

know the S&P was up whatever 17 plus and

48:20

if you to your point were in a bunch of

48:21

growth stocks and then Nvidia that's

48:23

what drove your portfolio. It wasn't

48:25

like you got of that 12% return. It

48:27

wasn't like 8% of it was the alpha that

48:29

you generated. It was predominantly

48:31

theta. And most sophisticated LPS can

48:33

kind of go through and look and

48:34

disagregate how those returns were

48:36

generated and go, "Oh, okay. Well, it

48:37

looks like you just sort of had exposure

48:40

to markets and that's what drove your

48:43

return and now I'm paying you 20%

48:45

incentive fee for you having beta

48:47

exposure." Um, and so that's I think

48:50

that's the real uh kind of issue uh that

48:52

needs to be um figured out here and

48:55

markets need to be be more um available

48:59

from an alpha standpoint for hedge funds

49:01

to to really shine.

49:02

>> Yeah. On the long only front, it's

49:05

interesting because I think we've all

49:07

seen the studies that show that mutual

49:09

funds, public public equity funds in

49:12

general on the whole underperform their

49:14

benchmarks. Um, and yet there is 28

49:18

trillion in active management um, in

49:20

mutual funds and ETFs. And uh, I'm

49:24

citing a study from Goldman that uh,

49:26

came out looking at 5-year returns

49:28

ending in 2024. And they looked at hedge

49:31

fund long only products and they found

49:33

200 to 300 basis points of

49:35

outperformance in a in a group that has

49:37

600 billion in assets under management.

49:40

So, I just have to wonder

49:42

and and I'm sure many of those managers

49:45

after fees

49:47

got paid for beta like there was beta

49:49

they got paid for. Is there just a

49:51

philosophical

49:52

um

49:54

resistance to paying for beta even if

49:57

the net result is better, right? Like

50:00

yes, the manager did get overcompensated

50:02

for the beta in the portfolio, but the

50:05

net result is still better. Why why does

50:08

it matter that this person is getting

50:11

rich?

50:12

>> So when I started in the industry, uh

50:16

when we evaluated

50:18

um hedge funds that were more equity

50:20

oriented, our we we we knew they had

50:23

beta like that wasn't like a question.

50:25

That was part of the model. But our

50:27

attitude was that even if they have 50%

50:30

of the beta to the market that over the

50:34

long term 3 five years their returns

50:37

should be the same as the market. So

50:40

half the beta but they have so much

50:43

alpha that even after 2 and 20 they're

50:46

they're meeting the market return. And

50:49

then the real appeal is that they're

50:50

doing so with so much less volatility.

50:52

So your downside risk in theory is

50:54

lower, your volatility is lower, your

50:56

sharp ratio for people who are really

50:57

excited about sharp ratios is is through

50:59

the roof in that regard. And to be

51:01

frank, so this is like 2005, that was

51:05

realistic. It was something that equity

51:07

oriented hedge funds had done up until

51:09

that point. Um, but you haven't really

51:11

seen that be accomplished often uh since

51:15

then. uh partly because um of how much

51:18

beta there's been. Like if you know the

51:20

equity market's up 20%, you're capturing

51:23

10 of it. Like good luck getting 10% of

51:25

alpha after fees. Like that's crazy. Um

51:29

but so but also I think that there's

51:32

been you know the hedge fund market from

51:35

2005 to to today is you know gone from

51:38

what a trillion some dollars to four

51:39

plus trillion5 trillion dollars. And

51:43

there are some strategies that are

51:45

scalable to a certain degree like I

51:46

could be long short but like you know

51:49

merger arb convert arb whatever like

51:51

there's only so much so many deals out

51:53

there you can't just like and so spreads

51:55

have narrowed for sure in some of the

51:57

more niche strategies so the amount of

51:59

alpha that exists in some of those

52:01

strategies especially when markets

52:03

aren't dislocated is a lot smaller so I

52:06

think there's just sort of been um you

52:08

know kind of a perfect storm of asset

52:10

growth compression spreads these big

52:12

beta rallies that have made it so

52:14

there's just less alpha

52:17

sort of on a year-to-year basis uh for

52:20

hedge funds to go capture in in certain

52:23

markets. And then to your point like the

52:25

big ones that are now 30 50 hundred

52:28

billion dollar hedge funds, you know,

52:31

the headline that you see is that you

52:33

you know you you just made that manager

52:36

of a billionaire off of the 2%

52:39

management fee and the 20%

52:41

interest or incentive fee that you're

52:43

paying them for the beta that they're

52:44

producing. And for a lot of LPs, that

52:47

just is kind of like that's that's not

52:48

what I'm signing up for.

52:50

>> I'm talking about the funds where it's

52:51

like yes, it has a beta.

52:54

>> It has a 100% beta, right?

52:56

>> And the market did 20 and after fees

52:59

they did 25.

53:00

>> Yeah.

53:01

>> Right. And they consistently over over

53:03

full equity market cycles outperform.

53:07

But yet I mean clearly active management

53:10

in mutual funds is still being allocated

53:12

to

53:13

>> and ETF increasingly ETFs are being

53:16

offered like they're still getting them

53:17

and yeah the fee is lower. It's

53:20

>> 60 basis points or less or you know

53:22

maybe it's 100 basis points but on the

53:25

whole like they're still

53:25

underperforming. Is it just that these

53:28

other long only hedge fund products

53:30

don't scale or is there just a a

53:33

reticence to pay for that even if there

53:35

is proven outperformance?

53:36

>> I'll admit like the one thing that

53:38

always confused me is that um people

53:42

couldn't look past the difference

53:44

between the gross and the net returns.

53:47

Like my attitude was if I'm getting a

53:48

hot a great net return that do I feel a

53:52

little bit sick about the fees I'm

53:53

paying to get there? Maybe. But at the

53:56

end of the day, the net return is what I

53:58

earn. And for whatever reason, there are

54:00

some people who just

54:02

um I don't know if it's a principal

54:05

thing or what, but like if you don't

54:07

mind me stepping over into the venture

54:09

capital world for a moment, like you

54:11

know, some venture capital funds are

54:13

three and 30, right? That's insane. But

54:16

then those fund managers might get a 5x

54:18

net return. Where else are you going to

54:20

get a 5x net return? But then if you're

54:22

like, well, what would that return if I

54:23

wasn't paying 3 and 30? it could have

54:24

been like six, seven, whatever x and

54:27

you're giving up quite a bit. But yet

54:31

people aren't complaining as much about

54:32

that because they're getting like a 5x

54:34

out of that investment. And so to go

54:36

back to your analogy of like, you know,

54:38

markets are doing 20 and I did 25 as on

54:41

a net basis. I feel like the best thing

54:44

to do is go and say, okay, well that's

54:46

good. 25 is better than 20. But I don't

54:49

know why. I can't explain it, but

54:50

there's just a cohort of people who just

54:53

get sick to their stomach to be like,

54:55

"But look at all the fees I had to pay

54:56

for that."

54:57

>> Yeah. It's funny, too, because there is

54:58

a cohort of managers in the public

55:01

equity world that love to talk about

55:03

like there are marketing rule

55:04

requirements that say you have to talk

55:06

about your net return if you talk about

55:07

your growth. But they believe and and

55:10

people have written about this that the

55:12

gross return is the true measure of

55:13

skill. And so they're obsessed with

55:16

talking about their skill. like you're

55:17

telling people how much they're giving

55:19

away in fees. Like you don't have to

55:21

market your gross return. You only have

55:23

to give people net. And in fact, it's

55:25

what matters most. And by showing that

55:27

you did gross, you know, a,000% since

55:31

inception and your LPs have received

55:33

700, you're telling them how much

55:36

they've paid you in fees. And it's it

55:38

can be a nauseating number for people

55:39

despite how good that net return might

55:41

be.

55:42

>> Yeah. I always, to your point, I always

55:43

found it silly when a manager would talk

55:45

to me about their gross returns because

55:46

they're like, I don't care. That's not

55:47

what I'm getting. Like, you know, and

55:49

you can pat yourself on the back for

55:50

that number, but um I don't get to see

55:53

it. I know you do uh in your own book

55:55

because you're not paying yourself fees.

55:56

That's really funny. I have a friend who

55:58

works in the hedge fun industry and I'll

55:59

like catch up with him like, "Oh, how's

56:01

the year going so far?" And he's like,

56:02

"Oh, I'm I'm up 10." I'm like, "Oh,

56:04

yeah. Is that gross?" Like, "Yeah." I'm

56:06

like, "Okay, so you're actually up seven

56:07

or whatever, you know." And he's like,

56:09

"Oh, yeah, I guess so." No. But and so

56:12

the what I'm trying to get at with that

56:13

is I don't think that the the average

56:16

sort of GP

56:18

looks at performance on a net basis that

56:21

regularly. Certainly the people who are

56:23

sitting in front of the Bloomberg

56:24

terminals and and looking at their own

56:26

P&L, they're not even it's not even in

56:28

their mind that that like their number

56:31

is less than what it is because, you

56:33

know, it's it's something else that

56:35

someone else has to deal with. But it is

56:37

very true that as an LP like it could be

56:40

nauseating to kind of see the difference

56:42

between the gross and the net and also

56:43

to have a GP tell you about how amazing

56:45

they are because of their gross return

56:46

and you're like I don't care that's not

56:48

what I get and your fees take away all

56:50

of that alpha that you're talking about.

56:52

You know

56:53

>> I want to move a little bit more towards

56:54

education and the role that you and Kaia

56:57

specifically are playing. We talked

56:59

about the growth of the private wealth

57:03

capital in the alternative space and

57:06

certainly I imagine that that is the

57:09

group that needs to be educated the most

57:12

when you think about um you know there's

57:15

certainly new entrance into alts from

57:17

the endowment sovereign wealth fund

57:18

world but the resources they have

57:20

everything I I imagine private wealth is

57:22

where a lot of that is going

57:23

>> as an individual investor I'm excited

57:26

about the opportunity that you know my

57:28

portfolio can be opened up to more

57:30

investment options. So I I always will

57:33

be an advocate of of making more

57:36

available. Um you know, but then the

57:39

thing that gives me the greatest fear is

57:41

people who invest in things that they

57:43

don't know anything about. That's the

57:45

easiest way to lose money, right? Is to

57:47

kind of invest in something that you're

57:48

not familiar with. And so that's where

57:51

sort of that intersection lies is like a

57:53

you want to be supportive of the

57:55

democratization, if you will. Um but

57:58

then B, you want to make sure that

58:00

people are doing it for investing in

58:02

those because it has a appropriate role

58:04

in their portfolio. It has the right

58:06

fit. They're doing it for the right

58:07

reasons. It's etc etc. Um and so you

58:11

know what what we are are doing is

58:15

giving some of that base knowledge to

58:17

investors who aren't familiar with what

58:19

private credit is, what real estate is,

58:21

what private equity is, how to put it in

58:23

their portfolio, what role it plays in

58:24

the portfolio, what you can expect from

58:25

it. I think a very easy tangible example

58:28

right now is we've already sort of

58:30

talked about these evergreen funds you

58:32

know it's like oh cool I could have

58:33

private equity and liquidity

58:36

okay may pro probably like for a little

58:39

bit but not always and suddenly like

58:41

there's some dislocation in the market

58:43

and an investor goes all right great I'm

58:44

going to sell my evergreen private

58:46

equity fine get my money back no that's

58:48

not going to happen right what will

58:49

happen it's like oh because you know

58:51

what like private equity actually isn't

58:53

liquid and you can't just like sell a

58:55

company like that and these evergreen

58:57

funds aren't going to necessarily be

58:59

able to give everyone their money back

59:00

when they're all coming to the door at

59:01

the same time. And so sort of those

59:03

types of conversations that need to be

59:05

had to like truly inform people of what

59:08

they're getting into, what the risks

59:09

are, what to be aware of, what role it

59:12

can play in the portfolio, and and what

59:14

to um keep your eyes open for. Uh you

59:17

know, and we've already alluded to some

59:18

of those things. Are Evergreen Funds the

59:20

marginal buyer of private equity deals

59:22

right now? What does that mean in terms

59:23

of the types of deals they're getting?

59:25

Does that mean you actually kind of that

59:26

this is a good time to be in those funds

59:28

or are you kind of getting castoffs? Um,

59:30

evergreen funds may say they're liquid

59:32

and you can get your money every

59:34

quarter, but the reality of it is there

59:35

will be a time where you won't get your

59:36

money in a quarter because it just won't

59:38

be available. So on and so forth. So,

59:40

um, being able to really kind of inform

59:44

the private wealth world, the retail

59:46

investor on kind of what those, uh,

59:48

strategies are, how they f the

59:50

portfolio, why it would make sense for

59:52

you to have it in your portfolio versus

59:53

not, and some of the things to keep your

59:56

eyes open to. Uh, very important.

59:58

>> What are the other things that you think

60:00

uh, newer investors to the alternative

60:02

space should be paying attention to? If

60:05

you're used to looking at a mutual fund

60:07

or an ETF performance page or perspectus

60:09

and you get the one, three, fiveyear

60:11

return that everybody has to present,

60:13

it's it's very different in the

60:15

alternative space and you can even mean

60:17

very similar offerings get extremely

60:20

different marketing materials and

60:22

statistics based off of what they

60:24

believe is important or representative.

60:26

>> How should uh investors be dealing with

60:29

that variability and and newness?

60:32

>> Yeah, I mean there's a couple things. I

60:33

mean, number one, how you measure

60:34

performance is different in private

60:36

markets. The common term is IR. We've

60:37

been using the term IRRa throughout this

60:39

conversation. Um, but IRRa doesn't

60:41

exactly perfectly translate to time

60:43

weighted returns. So, you might say,

60:45

hey, the S&P was up 15% this year. And

60:47

then you'd say this fund had an IRRa of

60:49

13%. That's not an exactly apples to

60:52

apples comparison to use. And I would

60:54

say the average investor probably

60:56

doesn't understand how ILR is created as

61:00

a number and what that exactly means and

61:02

how it can be um manipulated for a lack

61:04

of a better term. So that's number one.

61:07

But then number two, also benchmarking

61:09

to a certain degree. Again, like um I'm

61:12

not saying that it's unfair to say

61:14

benchmark private debt to the S&P. Uh

61:17

but if you're going to evaluate the

61:19

success of an individual investment, you

61:22

might want to compare it to what it's,

61:24

you know, universe is. And so in that

61:26

case, like, all right, great. I went

61:27

into this private debt evergreen fund.

61:29

Um how do I know if it if it did well or

61:31

not? What am I comparing it to? Because

61:33

I probably shouldn't just compare it to

61:34

the S&P. That's not exactly like kind of

61:36

its its universe. So I don't know that.

61:39

Um so that's something that people

61:40

probably have to kind of figure out to

61:42

understand because you think, oh, I

61:43

invested in Nvidia and it did better

61:44

than S&P. that is fair and act but like

61:47

maybe not for some of these evergreen

61:49

things. And then the last thing is this

61:51

is something I think evergreen funds do

61:53

well as a solution is that they can

61:55

because of the way they are structured

61:56

and the evergreen nature of it they will

61:58

be time diversified but for some of the

62:00

bigger investors who may not just use

62:02

evergreen funds but go into funds them

62:04

directly themselves. You can't just say

62:07

oh I invested in this one private equity

62:09

fund that's it I'm done I have my

62:11

exposure. you have to be time

62:12

diversified and I think that's a really

62:15

difficult thing for people to understand

62:18

growing into the allocation as opposed

62:19

to going from 0 to 10. You can't go from

62:21

0 to 10 overnight. Secondaries is part

62:23

of a solution for that. But then you've

62:25

kind of got that ongoing commitment as

62:27

well where you're going to kind of have

62:28

to regularly commit the money to keep

62:29

that allocation. And that's something

62:31

that people it's very foreign to people

62:33

because in the public markets it's okay

62:35

great I want to be in this stock. you

62:38

can put it all your money into it in one

62:39

fell swoop in one day and have it there

62:41

and there's your allocation. Um, but

62:44

private markets there's a lot of work

62:46

that goes into managing the size of the

62:49

commitment, the pacing of the

62:51

commitment, the time diversification.

62:53

Evergreen funds are a really awesome

62:54

solution for that. But for people who

62:56

are looking outside of evergreen funds,

62:58

there's a lot of work and um, expertise

62:59

that goes into that. So, what about

63:01

resources and and educational materials

63:03

that you have through Kaia for people

63:05

who do want to learn more about alts and

63:07

add this type of stuff to their

63:09

portfolios or their clients portfolios?

63:11

>> We welcome anyone who's interested and

63:13

for the most part a lot of our uh sort

63:15

of informal um materials is available to

63:18

the broad universe. We've got podcasts

63:20

and blogs and webinars that anybody can

63:22

go to and learn about these topics. And

63:24

then we have more formal um certificate

63:27

and micro credential learning programs

63:29

that are online

63:31

self-guided five six hours of watching

63:35

uh tutorials and training videos on

63:36

stuff and so forth. So it's kind of

63:38

depends on how deep and technical you

63:40

want to get and how um sort of formal in

63:43

the learning you want to be. But we um

63:45

but for folks who are interested in like

63:47

for example learning about private

63:48

equity, we've got a 7-h hour

63:50

microcredential program that you can pay

63:52

for to really learn about private

63:55

equity. Um but if you're interested in

63:57

just sort of getting a little bit more

63:59

of a conversation around what the heck

64:00

secondaries funds are, go we've got a

64:02

two-hour podcast that talks about

64:04

secondaries and then and what's

64:06

happening in the market and why

64:07

investors might choose to use a

64:08

secondary fund or not or so forth. So um

64:11

you know we tried to be uh make our

64:14

material sort of available to everybody

64:16

and and inclusive and then it just sort

64:18

of comes down to um how deep of a

64:20

learning experience you want, how formal

64:22

of a learning experience you want um in

64:25

that regard.

64:25

>> Yeah. Going all the way up to getting

64:27

your Kaya designation and being a a

64:29

chartered alternative investment uh

64:31

analyst.

64:32

>> Yes. And I I sort of gloss over that one

64:34

because that's the 200 plus hour time

64:36

commitment that uh you know a select few

64:38

make that decision on. Um I don't know

64:41

that a lot of retail investors are going

64:42

to say to themselves I want to go get my

64:44

Kaya charter before I uh you know invest

64:47

into an evergreen fund. Uh but that is

64:49

also available for sure and a lot of

64:51

folks who work in the institutional alts

64:54

world um pursue the Kaya charter and

64:58

getting a Kaya designation. But on the

65:00

retail private wealth side, those

65:02

certificates, micro credentials, and

65:04

other learning experiences really kind

65:06

of fit that profile quite well.

65:08

>> Yeah. And that is uh the the Kaya NXT

65:11

program. Um we do actually have a a

65:15

special offer for everybody listening

65:16

today um that if you go to the link in

65:19

the description, we have a 10% off

65:21

coupon. It's coupon code MM10 that you

65:24

can get to get uh 10% off on any of

65:27

those microcredential programs. and we

65:29

have, you know, private debt, private

65:31

assets or digital assets, real estate,

65:34

private equity, and uh I'm sure there is

65:36

more to come in 2026. What is next

65:39

coming down the pike for for Kaya NXT

65:41

and some of the other programs you have?

65:44

>> Yeah. Um so, uh the the one that is

65:48

coming out now is called portfolio

65:50

implementation. And so, a lot of it's

65:52

what we've been talking about today.

65:53

Hey, I now kind of understand that I

65:55

want private equity in my portfolio. I

65:57

want real estate in my portfolio. how do

65:58

I do it? How do I think about how to how

66:01

much to allocate? Uh where the

66:02

allocation comes from the time

66:04

diversification stuff. So uh that

66:07

portfolio implementation that credential

66:09

is a 9-hour long one filled with a bunch

66:13

of expert interviews where we're

66:15

bringing in industry practitioners to

66:17

sort of talk about how they actually do

66:19

this with the practices that they do and

66:21

so forth. So really excited about how

66:23

kind of practical and industry oriented

66:26

that one is. And then uh what's what

66:29

what else you'll expect from us in 2026

66:31

is um we're doing a micro credential on

66:34

TPA uh for people who are interested in

66:36

in getting more on that. We're going to

66:38

do a micro credential on infrastructure

66:40

uh which complements well kind of the

66:42

real estate private equity private debt

66:43

ones that we've already done. And then

66:46

um this is uh something that uh we're

66:49

really excited about because we're a

66:50

global organization and we're seeing a

66:53

lot of interest outside of the US of

66:55

course in terms of adoption of alts and

66:59

um access to alts. And so um we're doing

67:02

a microcredential later this year um

67:04

that's targeting around Islamic finance

67:07

and its application in the world of

67:09

alternative investments. Um there's a

67:11

lot of growth happening in the Middle

67:12

East. Um, Islamic finance is also

67:14

relevant in parts of Apac, Malaysia,

67:16

Indonesia, so forth. And so, um, not

67:18

everyone listening to this will

67:19

necessarily find that to be, uh,

67:21

relevant for them. Uh, but from our

67:23

standpoint, we're, um, tapping into a

67:25

universe that, uh, is a rich universe in

67:28

terms of, uh, people and and and

67:30

interest and education, uh, that we

67:32

really feel like can benefit from

67:33

understanding, uh, that that connection.

67:36

>> Very cool. Well, thank you so much for

67:38

joining me today, Steve. It was a lot of

67:40

fun. And again, reminder to everybody,

67:41

if you are interested, go to the link in

67:43

the description, learn a little bit more

67:45

about Kaya NXT, learn a little bit more

67:47

about alternatives, and uh take

67:48

advantage of that special offer.

67:50

>> Well, Max, thanks so much for having me

67:52

on. It was a great conversation. I

67:53

really appreciated it. Oh, it's my

67:55

pleasure,

Interactive Summary

The video discusses the shift from Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) to a Total Portfolio Approach (TPA) in institutional investing. This shift involves delegating more decision-making power to investment staff rather than solely relying on board approvals. CalPERS' transition is highlighted as a significant event that may encourage other institutions to adopt TPA. The discussion also covers how benchmarking changes under TPA, moving from asset-class specific benchmarks to a more holistic portfolio benchmark. The video explores the reasons behind this shift, including market volatility and the need for greater nimbleness. It touches upon the implications for fund managers, emphasizing a shift towards a 'best ideas' mentality. The conversation extends to private markets, including private credit and private equity, discussing challenges like limited distributions and the role of secondary markets and continuation vehicles in providing liquidity. Finally, it addresses the growing interest of private wealth investors in alternatives and the importance of education in this space, highlighting Kaya's educational programs.

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