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Can Labour be Saved?

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Can Labour be Saved?

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0:00

Okay.

0:00

Welcome back to Garys Economics.

0:02

Today, we are going to ask the

0:03

question, can Labour be saved?

0:08

Okay, so this is the first ever part

0:10

two of a two-part video this week.

0:12

So last week, we discussed the question of

0:15

whether Labour have been unlucky and whether

0:19

global center-left political parties have been

0:21

unlucky, and that is why they were very unpopular.

0:24

And the conclusion that I came to is they're not

0:28

unlucky in the way that they like to say they are.

0:30

They like to say they have inherited bad

0:32

economies from the right, from the center-right,

0:34

and that's nothing to do with them.

0:36

In reality, the weakening economies were

0:40

predictable long before Labour came into power.

0:42

I've been predicting them for five years.

0:45

I tried my best to let Labour know before they

0:47

came into power that there was going to be big problems

0:50

of government spending, government funding, big

0:53

problems with inequality, and they ignored it.

0:55

So they are not unlucky in the sense that

0:58

the economic problems were unpredictable.

1:00

But where they are unlucky is that the economic

1:04

problems that Labour are facing and the

1:06

UK economy is facing is not at all unique.

1:09

This problem of weakening economy, falling

1:11

living standards, has basically been experienced by

1:15

every government in the UK for the last 15 years.

1:18

It brought down Rishi Sunak for the same reason

1:21

that it would... that it's bringing down Keir Starmer.

1:22

It will bring down Nigel Farage

1:24

if and when he comes into power.

1:26

The same thing is happening to Donald Trump in America.

1:28

The same thing is happening to the German

1:30

government, the French government, the Spanish

1:33

government, the Italian government, even the

1:34

Japanese government, the Australian Government.

1:37

This is happening to governments all over the world.

1:39

It's not a Labour-specific problem.

1:41

And what this is, really, is more of a broad

1:45

intellectual failing where our economists

1:48

and our politicians are simply unable to

1:50

recognise that we have a structural growing

1:52

problem of growing wealth inequality, and

1:54

that is the cause of the economic crisis.

1:57

Okay, so once we accept that, that what we

1:59

have is a broad intellectual failing,

2:03

that raises the question of, what do we do?

2:06

We're in a situation here where

2:08

inequality continues to rise.

2:10

That means that living standards will continue to fall.

2:13

It's important that we recognise that

2:14

that is like, really, really serious.

2:16

That means people not being able to heat

2:19

their homes, feed their kids, buy houses,

2:21

have families, have financial security.

2:24

It's going to be really, really serious

2:26

here and across the world.

2:27

So we need to ask ourselves, what can we do?

2:31

How can we get governments to change

2:34

policy to stop inequality from rising?

2:37

Which basically means policy on taxation, wealth taxes.

2:40

And here in this country, and I think in most countries,

2:43

you basically have two choices, assuming you don't

2:46

get anything on inequality and taxation from the right

2:48

and the center-right, which I think is probably true.

2:51

You have to either build a new political party

2:54

or try and influence your centre-left parties.

2:57

Here in this country, under our first-past-the-post

2:59

political system, which I think is a

3:01

bit of a stupid system, it is very, very

3:03

difficult to displace political parties.

3:05

So we need to figure out, can we save Labour?

3:10

So that raises the big two questions of this video.

3:13

Why have Labour failed to recognise inequality as

3:16

the core central message, and can they be saved?

3:19

Okay, so, you know, I speak

3:20

about why they've failed a lot.

3:21

I spoke about it a lot in last week's video.

3:23

This is a misdiagnosis of an economic problem.

3:27

Economists don't look at inequality a lot.

3:30

We have a crisis of falling living standards

3:32

being caused by growing inequality, and

3:34

economists are missing it, and that's causing

3:36

political parties, including Labour, to miss it.

3:38

Why that is happening, I think...

3:40

To be honest, I'm not 100% sure.

3:44

I've got a lot of theories.

3:45

And We're going to run through them.

3:46

It's important that we understand why

3:49

these guys are missing it if we want

3:50

to move into a more sensible position.

3:52

A big part of this, in my opinion, is coming from

3:54

problems in the academic discipline of economics.

3:57

So economics in the way that it is

3:59

understood and taught at universities.

4:01

I've spoken about this in some past videos.

4:04

Maybe we'll flash a link up to 'Why economists are

4:06

always wrong' which is a cool video of me walking around

4:08

Oxford years ago when we used to do things like that.

4:11

When you study economics at university

4:12

nowadays, it is a very complicated and

4:15

difficult and extremely mathematical subject.

4:17

You spend an enormous amount of time doing

4:19

complicated algebra, complicated calculus.

4:22

If you take it to post-grad or PhD or post-doc level,

4:25

you are going to spend 10 years doing complicated calculus

4:30

and algebra on very, very mathematically complicated

4:33

models, almost all of which contain no inequality.

4:37

This is a very, very effective way

4:41

of training economists not to think

4:43

about the economy in terms of inequality.

4:45

If you have spent 10 years locked in stuffy,

4:48

windowless university library rooms doing simultaneous

4:52

equations and complicated algebra and calculus, when

4:55

you see a real-world economic problem, you are going to

4:58

have a very strong temptation to try to apply the

5:01

things you learnt and things you studied at university.

5:04

If you spent 10 years studying very, very complicated

5:07

mathematical models that include no inequality,

5:10

you are very, very unlikely to look at an economic

5:12

problem and think, "Maybe this is being caused by

5:15

inequality." I think there's also a kind of

5:18

hothouse, very competitive culture within economics

5:22

specifically, although I do think it's happening in

5:24

lot of academic disciplines, which really, really

5:27

aggressively rewards students for studying and

5:31

writing papers on kind of fashionable ideas and not

5:34

really stepping outside the box and writing about

5:36

things which are unfashionable, like inequality.

5:38

You know, a good example of this is Ha-Joon Chang,

5:40

who is a Korean economics professor who I

5:43

think is really smart guy, really thoughtful.

5:45

I've got a lot of time for him.

5:46

We had him on the channel earlier this year.

5:48

He writes a lot of great books about things like

5:50

how Korea went from being poor to being rich.

5:53

He has a lot of things to say about how

5:55

countries can improve living standards.

5:57

And yet, because he does not talk and write

6:00

in the way which is approved within economics,

6:02

despite the fact that he is the best-selling

6:04

economics author in the entire country, he is

6:07

largely shunned and ignored within economics.

6:09

Another great example is Thomas Piketty. French

6:12

economist who had a very prestigious, illustrious,

6:15

successful economics career, who decided in 2011, "I'm

6:18

going to start talking about inequality." Probably because

6:21

he was smart enough to recognise what a big deal it was.

6:23

And since then has been kind of criticised,

6:26

attacked, shunned, and sidelined a

6:27

lot within the economics community.

6:29

So, within economics as a whole, you have a

6:32

discipline which is not able really to look or

6:37

think in terms of inequality, and tends to

6:39

punish people who think outside the box, who

6:42

are willing to think in different terms.

6:45

I think COVID is a great example of this.

6:46

We had the crisis, which from the very

6:48

beginning it should have been obvious was going

6:50

to cause a massive increase in inequality.

6:52

And yet basically nobody in academia, in the think

6:56

thanks, the central banks, which are kind of extensions

6:59

of academia, was ever able or willing to think about it

7:01

in terms of inequality, in terms of distribution.

7:05

You then have the additional factor that

7:07

specifically within economics you have this other

7:11

optional career path, which aggressively

7:14

rewards people who think outside the box and

7:16

challenge conventional wisdom, which is trading.

7:19

So, I have studied at the London

7:22

School of Economics and at Oxford.

7:23

I can tell you with a very high level of

7:26

confidence the vast majority of economics undergrads

7:29

really, really want to work in finance jobs like trading

7:32

or perhaps other jobs nowadays, like tech or AI.

7:36

They're not trying to get into government.

7:38

But they know that in trading, trading is quite

7:43

interesting in that it really, really heavily rewards

7:46

people who turn around and say, "Everyone around me

7:48

is wrong" as long as you get proved to be right.

7:50

When I was a trader, I was a very heavily

7:53

counter-trend trader, so I liked to really bet

7:56

aggressively on things that everybody thought was wrong.

7:58

And if you do that, you get paid a lot of money.

8:00

So, you have one side of economics, which is the kind

8:04

of public-facing side, which is the universities, the

8:07

governments, the think tanks, which really, really

8:10

punishes people for stepping outside the sort of

8:12

acceptable box and saying, "I think everybody is wrong.

8:15

I think something different." And then you have

8:17

another much better-paid side of economics, which

8:20

really, really aggressively rewards people who do that.

8:22

So obviously, if you are the kind of person who

8:25

wants to challenge conventional wisdom in economics,

8:29

there are very, very strong reasons why you might try

8:31

and go into finance and trading rather than economics.

8:33

But even if we accept this that economics as a

8:38

discipline kind of slightly brainwashes its students

8:42

into not really breaking the rules and then really

8:46

pushes the students who are a little bit more inventive

8:50

in their thinking out of academia and into trading,

8:53

we're now in a situation where in the last 17 years,

8:56

living standards have been falling quite consistently.

8:59

Existing political parties have

9:01

been losing again and again.

9:02

They've been consistently failing on the economy.

9:04

The far-right is growing all across the world.

9:07

There's this outrage against popular economists,

9:11

popular politicians, against the status quo.

9:13

It's like really obvious that

9:15

the status quo is failing.

9:16

We have in the Labour Party a government

9:19

that is phenomenally unpopular, looks

9:22

very likely to lose the next election, is

9:24

desperately in need of money and new ideas.

9:26

And yet despite this, like, very long-term track record

9:29

of quite consistent failure, this really powerful

9:33

demand for new ideas from the public, economists and

9:36

politicians have still been really, really stubbornly

9:39

ignoring and, and unwilling to talk to people like me.

9:41

And it's not just me.

9:42

We have other people like Thomas Piketty...

9:44

Gabriel Zucman in France saying similar

9:47

things and meeting really strong pushback, even

9:50

from politicians who are supposed to be on the

9:52

left, who you might imagine would be more open to ideas

9:55

like taxing very rich people, reducing inequality.

9:58

So, why is it that economists and politicians have

10:02

been so stubborn in ignoring these ideas about

10:06

inequality in spite of the massive popular demand?

10:09

Now this, to be honest, is something which

10:12

I'm not 100% certain on, and it's something,

10:15

which I think about a lot, because obviously

10:18

we're at a point now on this channel where

10:20

we've had a huge amount of cut through with the public.

10:23

And what we are kind of coming up against is

10:25

we're hitting this wall of politicians

10:28

and academics and kind of this intellectual

10:32

middle class who are refusing to accept it.

10:34

And if we want to actually get this into power, we

10:37

do need to try to understand why these guys are so

10:40

unwilling to listen to us, so unwilling to work with us.

10:42

So, I've been thinking about this a lot,

10:44

speaking to a few different people and

10:47

we're trying to understand what it is.

10:49

And I've got a list of ideas here, which might

10:51

be what is stopping them from listening to us.

10:54

I'm going to go through them and you can

10:56

let me know if you think any of these are

10:58

right, if you think any of these are wrong.

10:59

If you think there's anything

11:00

I'm missing, put it in the comments.

11:02

But I'll go through the list of ideas I've got here.

11:04

So, number one is, I've

11:06

got here the far-left theory.

11:08

And this is that me and my ideas have kind of

11:14

been branded in the eyes of the political class,

11:17

the politicians, maybe the media as far left.

11:20

And a lot of politicians don't like the

11:22

far left, and they are unwilling to

11:24

countenance anything that is branded as far left.

11:27

This is very frustrating for me because

11:29

I don't come from a political background.

11:31

I don't come from the far left.

11:34

My background is I studied economics at LSE.

11:37

I was very successful.

11:38

I got very good grades.

11:39

I went on to become a trader.

11:42

I was very successful and made

11:43

a lot of very good predictions.

11:44

I went to Oxford to do a two-year master's.

11:47

Again, I did very well.

11:49

Classic, classically trained economist.

11:52

And then I've been out here speaking publicly,

11:53

making very good predictions as well.

11:55

Like for me, I have never tried to be far left.

11:59

I don't come from a political background.

12:00

I have a very, very good track

12:02

record of being right.

12:03

And this is the kind of thing which

12:06

gets you a long way in the financial world.

12:08

People will look a lot at what your

12:10

track record of predictions are like.

12:12

If you don't believe my track record of

12:13

predictions, go and watch the video from...

12:15

first ever video from this channel in June 2020.

12:17

You'll see how good the predictions

12:18

were just at the beginning.

12:19

But it does seem like this might be one of

12:21

the reasons why Labour are not listening

12:24

to us, that they think we're far left.

12:25

We need to think about how can we

12:27

try to rid ourselves of that brand.

12:30

Honestly, you know, I

12:32

don't... I'm an economist.

12:34

I don't think of economics

12:35

as left or right, you know.

12:37

When I look at the economy... When I first

12:39

started making these bets in 2011 as a trader,

12:42

because I was heavily financially incentivised to

12:44

bet on what's right. I've been betting

12:46

on these things since the beginning of COVID.

12:48

I've made a huge amount of money.

12:49

I don't say these things because

12:51

I have some political motive.

12:53

I say these things because I have a very

12:55

good track record of accurate predictions.

12:57

My current forecasts are for

12:58

a collapse in living standards.

13:00

I don't want living standards to collapse even further.

13:02

But unfortunately, this, this branding as far-left is

13:05

perhaps one of the things which is about stopping us.

13:07

I've got here the Zach Polanski theory.

13:09

I went on a podcast with Zach Polanski,

13:11

the new leader of the Greens.

13:12

I asked him, why is there so much resistance?

13:15

And he just basically said, like, they're all bought.

13:17

He goes, "This is it. Like, they're all

13:18

bought, they're paid for by the rich.

13:20

Their donors are very, very rich.

13:22

They go and work for rich people."

13:25

Which some people might say is quite conspiratorial

13:26

and quite negative but I think there

13:29

might be some element of this involved.

13:31

You know, when we were looking at the Conservative

13:33

Party, we had Rishi Sunak, who was phenomenally wealthy.

13:36

We had David Cameron, who went on to make a

13:38

huge amount of money after leaving office.

13:40

Before that, Tony Blair made a huge

13:42

amount of money after leaving office.

13:44

I don't know what Keir Starmer's plans are, but it

13:47

does seem that part of the problem may simply be

13:51

the political class, especially at the top level, is

13:53

people who are very rich or are about to become

13:56

very rich and are often funded by the very rich.

13:59

That could be an element.

14:00

That could be an element to it.

14:01

If that happens, that will be tricky.

14:04

We have to think about how we can work around it.

14:06

Okay, I've got here the class theory.

14:08

This is the theory that basically the kind

14:11

of intellectual class... I wanted to...

14:14

Thomas Piketty, the French inequality

14:16

economist, calls them the Brahmin class.

14:18

So he uses the term the Brahmin class, which refers

14:20

to... The Brahmins were the top caste in the Indian

14:24

caste system, and they're basically priests, and

14:26

uses this term to talk about this kind of, this

14:28

kind of group of intellectuals who... High-level

14:31

economists, high-level academics, high-level

14:33

journalists, high-level politics, media, high-level

14:37

perhaps business, who sort of determine what

14:40

the public think and control a lot of the media.

14:42

I've had this theory for a while.

14:44

And when I first started this channel, it was... I

14:47

didn't know at the time it would become as big as it

14:49

has done, but a big part of it was I felt that there

14:52

wasn't really any sort of economic news source that felt

14:57

just accessible or understandable to ordinary people.

15:00

And I was writing for the Guardian at the time

15:02

and I really thought because I come from a working-class

15:04

background, and I look and I sound working class,

15:08

I thought ordinary people would appreciate having

15:10

somebody from an ordinary background talking to them

15:12

about economics in a way that they could understand.

15:15

And that was a big part of the idea of this channel.

15:17

And that means that really ever since the beginning,

15:20

I've always been trying to talk to the public

15:25

rather than trying to talk to the politicians.

15:28

And I'm obviously English and this is a country which

15:32

has had a long history of a class system, and

15:35

I do think there is a problem that when especially

15:38

more middle-class people see or hear somebody from a

15:41

working-class background, they perhaps make assumptions

15:44

that this guy is maybe not smart or maybe not honest.

15:48

And I do think that sometimes is

15:50

one of the reasons why I'm not taken that

15:53

seriously by these senior Labour politicians.

15:56

Again, it's very, very frustrating because, you

15:58

know, I was a very successful, very well-paid

16:01

trader and I was taken very seriously in that space.

16:04

And it's very frustrating to not be taken

16:07

seriously by people who would very, probably

16:09

very happily give me their money to manage.

16:11

I think a great example of this is when

16:13

I went on The Rest Is Politics, which is,

16:16

for those who are not in the UK, the most

16:18

popular politics podcast here in the UK.

16:20

It has a couple of presenters, one of whom is from a,

16:24

a very posh, you might even say aristocratic background.

16:27

And I made this case to him

16:29

that I felt like one of the reasons why

16:32

I'm not taken seriously by politicians is because

16:34

I'm from a working-class background and because

16:36

of how I talk and because of how I sound.

16:38

And he replied, "You know, I don't think that's right.

16:42

You shouldn't patronise politicians.

16:44

I think it's because of your class anger."

16:48

Which is, Well, it's a wonderful thing

16:51

to say really, because it's... What he's saying is

16:54

it's because of my class and the way that I speak,

16:57

which is, which is exactly what I what I said,

16:58

in a way, so... I put the case to him that posh

17:00

people don't take me seriously because of my class

17:02

and how I speak, and he said, "No, it's not that.

17:05

It's because of your class and how

17:06

you speak." I do think it's a problem.

17:08

I think the way that we get around this is really

17:12

I need yourselves and people like you to try as

17:16

much as you can to infiltrate those elite spaces.

17:19

So, get yourselves and your kids into fancy

17:21

universities, fancy jobs, media, politics, academia,

17:25

banks, finance, civil service, central banking,

17:29

and get those ideas that way.

17:30

I would never tell anyone to change the way you

17:32

speak but we do need posh people with posh

17:35

voices, I think, to be taken seriously.

17:37

The next one I've got here is the Gary is a dick theory.

17:40

And this is basically the fact that, like, from the

17:45

beginning... So, I've made all my money basically

17:49

by betting on the fact that economists are wrong.

17:51

And my whole career history

17:54

since 2011 is aggressively betting on

17:57

the fact that economists are wrong.

17:58

And I do believe, I say it all the time,

18:02

that I think we have a problem in economics where

18:04

economists are just failing to recognise this very,

18:08

very serious problem of growing wealth inequality.

18:11

And because of this, you know, sometimes

18:14

I... The way I speak about economists or

18:17

politicians or economists in

18:19

politics is perhaps a bit disrespectful.

18:21

Last week's video on, on whether Labour

18:25

are unlucky or not was actually originally

18:29

scheduled to be called Why Are Labour So ****?

18:31

And and this, I think kind of typifies, I think

18:35

a problem that I have, which is I'm very, very

18:37

frustrated with this political and economic class.

18:39

And I spoke with Oscar, who's the manager of

18:41

this channel and he sort of talked me off the

18:44

cliff edge and said, "Listen, if you want Labour and

18:47

Labour politicians to listen to you, you can't be

18:49

saying Labour are ****." And the truth is, the

18:52

history of this channel has been quite a lot of me

18:55

sometimes in somewhat flamboyant ways saying that

18:59

I think economists and politicians are a bit dumb.

19:01

And that perhaps worked very well in making this

19:05

channel very popular, but it's maybe not the

19:07

best way to get Labour to listen to you.

19:10

And I've got here attached to this is that

19:13

Gary is a classist, which relates to the previous

19:16

issue that people don't like that the middle class,

19:18

the sort of intellectual class don't listen to

19:20

me because I'm a working-class background.

19:22

I think I do have accept that to a degree I am

19:26

frustrated and a little bit angry with this sort

19:29

of upper middle class, intellectual class that

19:32

are allowing the economy to fall off a cliff

19:34

while in many cases, they themselves get richer.

19:36

This is probably best typified by a video

19:39

I did really, really early on called Elite Idiots,

19:42

saying the economy is being ruined by rich idiots.

19:44

The fact is, the way that I communicate,

19:46

the way that I talk about economists and the

19:48

way that I talk about politicians is perhaps

19:52

a bit rude, and that has probably p***ed them off.

19:54

And we need to think about that because yeah,

19:57

we do need to figure out ways to speak to these guys.

19:59

The last one I've got, which is about me personally,

20:01

is the Gary style of approach theory, which is that

20:04

basically they don't respect me because I'm coming

20:06

up through YouTube, and they need you to be coming

20:08

up, you know, the sort of acceptable way you go

20:11

and you get your PhD and you work your way through.

20:13

Just to be clear, I did go and do a

20:15

two-year master at Oxford before I started

20:17

doing this, and it was just so bad.

20:20

The quality of education was just unbelievably bad.

20:25

I felt guilty for having paid for such a poor education.

20:28

And I could also see, you know, the economy

20:30

was going to get worse quickly, and I didn't

20:31

think I wanted to do another six, seven years

20:33

wasting my time getting locked in libraries.

20:35

But this is the truth, right?

20:36

You know, I think the way that I've come through,

20:39

through YouTube, through trading

20:41

being a bit rude about posh people was

20:43

never going to endear me to posh people.

20:45

So we do need other people to go in,

20:49

push these theories, push this understanding,

20:51

not using my face, not using my name.

20:53

It helps if you got a posh voice.

20:54

Just don't talk about me.

20:55

Take the ideas, take the ideas and run with them.

20:58

But, you know, criticisms of these last

21:00

ones, all of these ideas are sort of based

21:01

on Gary specifically is doing it wrong.

21:04

The thing is, we've got another guy.

21:07

There's a guy called Gabriel Zucman, French economist,

21:10

who is doing great work pushing for wealth taxes in

21:12

France, and he's come at it a very different way,

21:15

very academic, got his PhD, very prestigious academic.

21:18

You know, didn't go through trading, didn't go

21:20

through YouTube, went direct to the politicians

21:22

and he's doing a really, really good job and we

21:24

hope he gets it, but he is also getting pushback.

21:26

And if the problem was just specifically me,

21:29

then you would imagine that other people in other

21:31

countries would be doing a better job of wealth taxes.

21:33

So I'm not really sure whether these

21:35

ideas that focus very much on me are the real answer.

21:38

I've got a couple more ideas here.

21:40

One is the small C conservatism theory,

21:43

which is basically just that because this

21:47

Brahmin class, this intellectual class is largely

21:50

richer people from richer backgrounds getting paid

21:52

quite well, they are just very comfortable with the

21:54

status quo and they don't want things to change.

21:56

They don't like ideas about taxation

21:58

because they see themselves as rich.

22:00

They don't want to pay higher taxes.

22:01

Next is the big picture thinkers

22:05

are all in different jobs theory, which is basically

22:08

what I said before, which is, if you are the kind

22:10

of person that wants to challenge the status quo,

22:12

think strategically, you are going to get rewarded much

22:15

better generally in business or in finance or in

22:17

trading than you will do in places like politics.

22:20

You do see a few... Well, the most obvious

22:23

counter-example to that is Dominic Cummings, who was

22:25

a kind of very radical guy, who became very senior in

22:28

government here before being publicly defenestrated,

22:32

Which means thrown out of a window.

22:34

Not literally.

22:36

And the last one here is the social mobility theory,

22:38

which is basically that, you know, I think back

22:41

in the day, this country, with young kids like

22:44

me, it would often, like very smart young kids

22:47

from poor backgrounds, would send them to grammar

22:49

school and they would bring them into places

22:51

like the civil service or like in government.

22:53

And you did have a situation where a lot

22:54

of the smartest young kids ended up in

22:56

some sense or another running the country.

22:58

Great example of this is John Major, who

23:00

was the prime minister in the early '90s, who I

23:03

believe came from a very working-class family.

23:05

I think his dad was a clown or something, wasn't it?

23:07

Something like that.

23:07

Worked in the circus, I think.

23:09

But went to a grammar school

23:10

and ended up running the country.

23:11

And I think if you look at countries like China

23:13

or like Singapore, they do still make sure that

23:17

a lot of the smartest kids in their country or,

23:19

you know, the kids that do best in exams, end up

23:22

working in government, end up running the country.

23:24

So what you see is, in the UK in the past

23:26

and in countries like China and Singapore

23:28

now, they make sure that the best people, or

23:32

at least some of them, end up in government.

23:34

Whereas now having been to sort of some

23:37

of the best universities in the country, I can

23:39

tell you the truth is not many of the smartest

23:43

kids aspire, especially from poorer backgrounds,

23:45

aspire to work in government.

23:47

Just simply because it is really, really

23:50

not a financially competitive job with

23:53

things like finance, with things like tech.

23:54

And what that has led to, I think, is really

23:58

just basically not a lot of great people in

24:01

government really, and which I think is,

24:03

is connected to the collapse of the country.

24:05

But of course, I have to be careful about saying

24:07

things like that because as we've established, me

24:09

loudly saying that I think politicians are not very

24:11

competent is probably not the best way to win them over.

24:14

So maybe forget that one.

24:16

So I'm fascinated to understand why it is.

24:20

I'm going to go on a bit of a break soon

24:21

and I'm going to really try to think about why.

24:23

If you have ideas, let me know.

24:25

But I think the theory which I think, I

24:28

think is most likely to be true, in my opinion, is

24:30

this last one, which is called the bubble theory.

24:33

And this is just that basically as the economy has

24:38

become more divided, we have really divided the

24:41

lives of richer people, you know, the sort of

24:44

middle class, upper middle class, from the poor.

24:46

And now we have this situation where

24:50

most elite jobs, including politics, have a

24:53

very high over-representation of people from

24:56

richer families, from private schools, from

24:59

this kind of elite, upper middle class space.

25:01

There are still some working class people in

25:04

politics, but they're less likely to be at the

25:06

top and they are a minority in that group, which

25:10

means the overall culture of the space, elite

25:12

level, politics, media, banking, academia, all

25:15

of these spaces are very, very middle class.

25:17

And what it means is you end up in a bit of a

25:20

bubble where most of the people in this space

25:23

went to elite schools, come from wealthy families,

25:25

went to elite universities, end up in elite well-paid

25:27

jobs, and simply do not have a good understanding

25:32

of or connection to life for ordinary people.

25:36

And I see this so often when I interact with people

25:40

from richer backgrounds and try to tell them what's

25:42

happening, this real unwillingness to even accept

25:45

that life is getting worse for ordinary people.

25:47

You see this all over the media.

25:49

When I went on Rest is Politics, you had...

25:51

you had Rory Stewart saying, "I think,

25:54

life is getting better in America." And then when

25:55

I went on LBC the other week, you had Tom Swarbrick

25:59

saying, "Oh, but things are okay in Australia."

26:01

Or we saw so much in the US press the last few years,

26:03

this idea that the vibes are off, which is actually

26:06

life is getting better and it's the working

26:08

class just don't understand their own situation.

26:11

Or there was the... the fantastic

26:13

piece by, was it John Burn-Murdoch?

26:15

Is that his name?

26:16

John Burn-Murdoch, the Financial Times journalist

26:18

saying, "Life is unambiguously getting better for

26:20

the poor." I think we have this problem now as

26:23

inequality is increasing and as social mobility is

26:26

decreasing, that when you go into elite spaces like

26:29

politics, they are really just full of wealthy people

26:32

who, because we exist in a crisis of inequality

26:35

where life is actually getting better for richer

26:37

people, they simply cannot see or understand

26:40

that life is getting worse for ordinary people.

26:42

And I think probably this is the biggest problem

26:44

we have, the bubble theory, that the people who

26:47

are in charge of power are stuck in this bubble.

26:51

Okay, so what do we do?

26:52

How do we win them over even though

26:54

they're stuck in this bubble?

26:55

Well, actually, in a bizarre way, we have a great

26:58

opportunity here because these guys that have been

27:01

stuck in this bubble have been willing and able to

27:03

ignore us for a long time, but the reckoning is kind

27:06

of coming for them because unless they start taking

27:09

these ideas seriously, they will continue to fail

27:13

on the economy and they will lose to the far right.

27:16

And I think a lot of these people, this intellectual

27:18

class, really do not want the far right to win.

27:20

So we do have a really good opportunity here to

27:22

really keep banging the drum, really make sure these

27:25

people know if you don't move seriously on inequality

27:28

and the economy, you will lose to the far right.

27:30

I think that that is a really good message to

27:32

have because that intellectual class specifically,

27:34

that Brahmin class, I think a lot of them don't like

27:36

the far right, so we have a good opportunity here.

27:39

But I have to be honest, I'm going to do

27:41

everything I can to win the next Labour leader.

27:42

I think we will get a new Labour leader next year.

27:45

I think probably we won't win them.

27:47

If we don't, then that leader will fail on the economy

27:50

and Reform and Farage will win the next election.

27:54

And they will fail on the economy

27:55

for the exact same reason.

27:56

So, you know, I know this is not the best case scenario

27:59

because that would then mean nine years of no wealth

28:02

taxes, because I don't think we'll get anything

28:04

from Reform, but it will only strengthen our case.

28:07

Yes, that might be a bit depressing, the idea that

28:11

if we don't get the next leader, we can't stop Reform

28:14

from winning and then it's nine years of no wealth tax.

28:16

But don't lose hope entirely.

28:19

I think there's a good chance that if Reform win

28:22

in four years, it could be a very small majority.

28:26

It could be even a hung parliament, so a minority

28:29

government, that I think they would also become

28:32

very unpopular very quickly because it will be seen

28:35

that they're going to fail on the economy and there is

28:38

a good chance that that government will fall quickly.

28:40

And it will strengthen our case even further.

28:44

One thing I can tell you with absolute certainty

28:46

is every single government you see in this

28:48

country or wherever you are for the next

28:49

20 years will do either one of two things.

28:52

Either they will give us something serious

28:55

on inequality and taxation or they will

28:57

fail on the economy and living standards.

28:59

So basically, we can only get stronger until we win.

29:05

So that's it, basically.

29:06

We need to keep banging the drum again and again.

29:08

We need to do everything we can do to de-radicalise

29:11

this brand, to de-leftise this brand, make it

29:14

clear that this is not about left or right; this

29:16

is about do you want the economy to fail or not?

29:18

As much as we can, we need to separate the

29:20

brand from me as a person, which means I need

29:23

you guys to run with these ideas yourselves.

29:25

I need you guys to use these ideas in your everyday

29:27

lives, with your communities, in your job if you can.

29:30

But look, I know the situation looks bad,

29:32

but we are actually in a very strong position

29:34

because whoever wins, either they give us

29:36

what we want or they fail on the economy.

29:38

And every time another idea fails, we will move closer

29:42

and closer to being the idea that takes power next.

29:45

And even if Reform do win here and

29:48

it's nine years with no wealth taxes

29:50

we're not the only country in the world.

29:51

This same thing is happening everywhere.

29:53

You know, I got Chlöe Swarbrick on from New Zealand

29:56

really largely because I wanted to show you, especially

29:58

to our British viewers, this is happening everywhere.

30:00

I think a lot of people think, oh things

30:02

are fine in Australia or in Sweden.

30:05

I was in Sweden earlier this year.

30:06

Same thing's happening there.

30:07

Same thing's happening across Europe.

30:08

Same thing's happening in Japan,

30:09

which is a country know very well.

30:11

This movement... one of the reasons why I've

30:13

been traveling around the world is I'm trying to

30:15

plant this seed everywhere because if it doesn't work

30:17

here, you know, it could work in another country.

30:20

There's great work being done

30:21

by Gabriel Zucman in France.

30:22

We just need one country to manage it, get a

30:25

wealth tax seriously, and show it can increase

30:27

living standards, and then we have a much better

30:29

chance of getting it here or wherever you are.

30:31

Okay, so I'll keep doing it.

30:33

You keep doing it.

30:34

I want to answer the opening question of

30:37

this video, which is, is Labour saveable?

30:40

And the honest answer is I don't know.

30:43

I don't know.

30:44

I hope that it is.

30:45

If we don't win Labour over, if we don't get the

30:47

next leader, then Labour will lose the election

30:50

and Farage and Reform will win the election, living

30:53

standards will fall, and we probably won't get

30:56

anything for nine years on wealth taxes here.

30:58

That would be serious.

30:59

Poverty will get worse and politics can get worse.

31:02

But look, things will change.

31:04

I think Labour will get a new leader next year.

31:06

I know we haven't heard much from Labour

31:08

in the last few months, and it's disappointed

31:10

me as much as it's disappointed you trust me.

31:12

But you know, Labour have a lot of very

31:14

new MPs that have only been there one year.

31:15

They're not very powerful.

31:16

They're finding their feet.

31:17

I think next year there will... there'll

31:20

probably be a push to push out Starmer

31:22

and a new man or woman will come in.

31:24

And I think a lot of these new MPs

31:26

will start trying to find their feet

31:28

and establish themselves more seriously.

31:29

You know, we did a call-out to Labour MPs

31:32

a few months ago and we did get a lot back.

31:34

We got, you know, we got I think more than 10 MPs

31:37

have asked for meetings or have given them meetings.

31:38

And we're trying to meet with all of them,

31:40

as well as some Liberal Democrat MPs.

31:41

Look, there are people in there and we're

31:43

going to try the best we can to work with them.

31:45

They're not all d**kheads.

31:46

They're not all idiots.

31:48

I've had some good meetings with some good

31:49

people and I'm going to try my best to build on it.

31:51

And I know there'll be people out there

31:53

saying, you know, "Forget Labour, they're rubbish.

31:55

Work with Zach Polansky, work with the Greens."

31:57

I'm talking to Zach, I'm talking to the Greens.

31:59

We're not ruling anybody out.

32:00

This is not football.

32:01

This is serious.

32:02

Things will get really bad if we don't do it so

32:04

I'm going to try my best to build something with Labour.

32:06

And I want to do a message to Labour MPs

32:09

because I know I've spoken in ways that are

32:12

perhaps a little bit disrespectful sometimes,

32:15

and I'm sorry if I've done that.

32:17

I'm frustrated, you know.

32:19

I see living standards falling

32:21

in this country, in my country.

32:22

I come from a poor background.

32:25

I know what it's like growing up poor,

32:27

and I don't want that to grow.

32:28

I don't want that to grow.

32:29

And I've been betting on these things for 14 years.

32:33

I've been making a lot of money on them.

32:35

I don't want them to get worse

32:37

and I'm frustrated at the lack of

32:39

support I've been getting from Labour.

32:40

But I keep turning up, I keep doing these

32:43

videos because I want to make things better.

32:44

And you guys, you're in there, you're

32:47

in the seat of power, your job is supposed

32:50

to be to protect the British people.

32:51

You're unpopular, you need money, I'm here to help.

32:55

I'm here to help.

32:56

And I don't, I don't mean

32:57

to say that in a disrespectful way.

32:59

We will always be open to speaking to Labour MPs as

33:02

long as the situation is as it is, which is we need

33:05

you to help us stop this country from collapsing.

33:08

I don't want the country to collapse,

33:10

you don't want the country to collapse.

33:12

Let's try and fix this together.

33:14

But you need to be open-minded about the economy.

33:17

You need to be open-minded about the idea that there

33:20

might be big economic problems that need fixing.

33:23

You need to be open-minded about the idea

33:26

that it might not be just about looking at

33:28

next year's budget and next year's budget.

33:31

You need to be willing to consider the idea that there

33:34

might be a big problem of large-scale wealth inequality.

33:38

You need to be able to consider that distribution

33:40

might matter, that wealth inequality might matter,

33:43

that government wealth-holding might matter.

33:44

And I know if you're an economist that these

33:46

ideas might be like outside of what

33:48

you were taught and outside of what you

33:50

studied and that might be, like, scary.

33:53

But look at what's happening. I know if

33:55

you're from a rich background you might not see

33:57

it, but I encourage you to go and speak to

33:59

people, and get into people's lives, and look

34:01

at what is happening to poverty, and look at how

34:03

much harder it's becoming for people to buy a home.

34:05

You know, I know big new ideas are scary,

34:08

especially if you've got like a background in economics.

34:10

And I know you might think that I'm just some working

34:12

class chancer or some kind of idiot, but look,

34:15

I've got the qualifications, I've been to LSE, I've

34:17

been to Oxford, I did very well, I've got a very,

34:20

very good track record of predicting as a trader.

34:22

In The Public you can look at my predictions from 2020.

34:25

They were very, very good.

34:26

Work with me here.

34:27

Work with me.

34:29

We need to do something.

34:30

If we don't take action on growing

34:32

inequality, I absolutely guarantee you that

34:35

living standards and poverty will get worse,

34:37

and worse, and worse, and worse in this country.

34:40

And I don't say that lightly, I don't take that lightly.

34:42

And I'm not just saying it, I'm betting on it,

34:45

I've been betting on it for a long, long time.

34:47

I've made a lot of money betting on it,

34:49

but I'm trying to stop it.

34:50

If you do not do anything about growing inequality,

34:54

poverty in this country will get worse, and

34:56

worse, and worse, and it will be your fault.

35:01

Okay, so that's it, right?

35:02

I'm here, I want to work with Labour.

35:04

I'm sorry if I've been

35:05

disrespectful in the past, you know.

35:07

I speak with my heart sometimes.

35:09

I'm worried about the future of this country.

35:10

I know I need the political parties to help me.

35:12

I will be here to speak to you

35:14

when you guys want to work with us.

35:16

People out there who say I should forget Labour and I

35:17

should work with the Greens, I'll be here, you know.

35:19

I'll be speaking to the Greens, I am speaking

35:21

to the Greens, I am speaking to Zach Polansky.

35:22

I don't rule anybody out, you know.

35:24

Politics is not football.

35:25

This is serious.

35:26

This is your life, this is your kids, your grandkids.

35:29

Can they buy a house?

35:30

Can they afford a family?

35:31

This is too serious to say, "I only like this

35:34

guy, I only like that guy." I will work with

35:36

whoever I need to work with to make this happen.

35:38

But look, if we don't win Labour and Reform come in,

35:41

we keep fighting, we don't give up.

35:43

It's a marathon, not a sprint.

35:45

And I want to finish this on a quote which

35:48

I've used before on this channel, but since it is a

35:50

quote from a somewhat legendary Labour MP, I thought

35:54

I would use it again as an olive branch to the Labour

35:57

Party, who I've said a million times I'm willing

36:00

to work with to make this country better, which is

36:03

a Tony Benn's quote that, "There is no final victory

36:06

and no final defeat, only the same battle to be

36:10

fought again and again and again. So toughen up,

36:14

bloody toughen up."

36:15

I think that's how it goes

36:18

Look, thank very much, for all your support.

36:21

I know it's a tough time but we keep fighting.

36:22

I'll keep fighting if you do.

36:23

Good luck.

36:24

Tax wealth not work.

36:25

Thank you.

Interactive Summary

The speaker, Gary, discusses whether the Labour Party can be saved, arguing that global economic problems like weakening economies and falling living standards are not due to bad luck but rather a predictable consequence of growing wealth inequality. He posits that economists and politicians fail to recognize this structural issue due to an

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